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136 records · Page 8

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Storm Cindy From a GLM, ISS LIS and GPM Perspective

The distribution of lightning with respect to tropical convective precipitation systems has been well established in previous studies and more recently by the successful Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). However, TRMM did not provide information about precipitation features poleward of +/-38 deg latitude. Hence we focus on the evolution of lightning within extra-tropical cyclones traversing the mid-latitudes, especially its oceans. To facilitate such studies, lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) onboard GOES-16 was combined with precipitation features obtained from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission constellation of satellites.

Precipitation↗

African Easterly Jet: Barotropic Instability, Waves, and Cyclogenesis

This study investigates the structure of the African easterly jet, focusing on instability processes on a seasonal and subseasonal scale, with the goal of identifying features that could provide increased predictability of Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis. The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is used as the main investigating tool. MERRA is compared with other reanalyses datasets from major operational centers around the world and was found to describe very effectively the circulation over the African monsoon region. In particular, a comparison with precipitation datasets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project shows that MERRA realistically reproduces seasonal precipitation over that region. The verification of the generalized Kuo barotropic instability condition computed from seasonal means is found to have the interesting property of defining well the location where observed tropical storms are detected. This property does not appear to be an artifact of MERRA and is present also in the other adopted reanalysis datasets. Therefore, the fact that the areas where the mean flow is unstable seems to provide a more favorable environment for wave intensification, could be another factor to include-in addition to sea surface temperature, vertical shear, precipitation, the role of Saharan air, and others-among large-scale forcings affecting development and tropical cyclone frequency. In addition, two prominent modes of variability are found based on a spectral analysis that uses the Hilbert-Huang transform: a 2.5-6-day mode that corresponds well to the African easterly waves and also a 6-9-day mode that seems to be associated with tropical- extratropical interaction.

Wu, Man-Li C↗

Hurricane Forecasting with the High-resolution NASA Finite-volume General Circulation Model

A high-resolution finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), resulting from a development effort of more than ten years, is now being run operationally at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center. The model is based on a finite-volume dynamical core with terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization and performs efficiently on massive parallel architectures. The computational efficiency allows simulations at a resolution of a quarter of a degree, which is double the resolution currently adopted by most global models in operational weather centers. Such fine global resolution brings us closer to overcoming a fundamental barrier in global atmospheric modeling for both weather and climate, because tropical cyclones and even tropical convective clusters can be more realistically represented. In this work, preliminary results of the fvGCM are shown. Fifteen simulations of four Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2002 and 2004 are chosen because of strong and varied difficulties presented to numerical weather forecasting. It is shown that the fvGCM, run at the resolution of a quarter of a degree, can produce very good forecasts of these tropical systems, adequately resolving problems like erratic track, abrupt recurvature, intense extratropical transition, multiple landfall and reintensification, and interaction among vortices.

Atlas, R.↗

Air mass origins and troposphere-to-stratosphere exchange associated with mid-latitude cyclogenesis and tropopause folding inferred from Be-7 measurements

The 1984 extratropical mission of NASA's Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) studied cross-jet transport in regions of cyclogenesis and tropopause folding. Correlations of Be-7, ozone, water vapor, and potential vorticity measured on a NASA U-2 research aircraft flying in high shear regions above the jet core are indicative of mixing between the cyclonic and the anticyclonic sides of the jet and are consistent with the hypothesis that small-scale entrainments of upper tropospheric air into the lower stratosphere during cyclogenesis are important in maintaining the vertical gradients of Be-7, ozone, water vapor and other trace constituents in the lower few kilometers of the midlatitude stratosphere. Correlations between Be-7, and ozone suggest a lower tropical stratospheric origin for the ozone-poor lamina observed above the jet core.

Kritz, Mark A.↗

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Turato, Barbara↗

The measurement of winds over the ocean from Skylab with application to measuring and forecasting typhoons and hurricanes

On Skylab, a combination microwave radar-radiometer (S193) made measurements in a tropical hurricane (AVA), a tropical storm, and various extratropical wind systems. The winds at each cell scanned by the instrument were determined by objective numerical analysis techniques. The measured radar backscatter is compared to the analyzed winds and shown to provide an accurate method for measuring winds from space. An operational version of the instrument on an orbiting satellite will be able to provide the kind of measurements in tropical cyclones available today only by expensive and dangerous aircraft reconnaissance. Additionally, the specifications of the wind field in the tropical boundary layer should contribute to improved accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts made with numerical weather predictions models currently being applied to the tropical atmosphere.

Cardone, V. J.↗

Upper-level eddy angular momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity change

The eddy flux convergence of relative angular momentum (EFC) at 200 mb was calculated for the named tropical cyclones during the 1989-1991 Atlantic hurricane seasons. A period of enhanced EFC within 1500 km of the storm center occurred about every five days due to the interaction with upper-level troughs in the midlatitude westerlies or upper-level, cold lows in low latitudes. Twenty-six of the 32 storms had at least one period of enhanced EFC. In about one-third of the cases, the storm intensified just after the period of enhanced EFC. In most of the cases in which the storm did not intensify the vertical shear increased, the storm moved over cold water, or the storm became extratropical just after the period of enhanced EFC. A statistically significant relationship was found between the EFC within 600 km of the storm center and the intensity change during the next 48 h. The EFC was also examined for the ten storms from the 1989-1991 sample that had the largest intensification rates. Six of the ten periods of rapid intensification were associated with enhanced EFC. In the remaining four cases the storms were intensifying rapidly in a low shear environment without any obvious interaction with upper-level troughs.

Demaria, Mark↗

Tropospheric Column Ozone Response to ENSO in GEOS-5 Assimilation of OMI and MLS Ozone Data

We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO) into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9- year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Nino influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

ML↗

An Analysis of Moisture Fluxes into the Gulf of California

This study examines the nature of episodes of enhanced warm-season moisture flux into the Gulf of California. Both spatial structure and primary time scales of the fluxes are examined using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis data for the period 1980-2001. The analysis approach consists of a compositing technique that is keyed on the low-level moisture fluxes into the Gulf of California. The results show that the fluxes have a rich spectrum of temporal variability, with periods of enhanced transport over the gulf linked to African easterly waves on subweekly (3-8 day) time scales, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) at intraseasonal time scales (20-90 day), and intermediate (10-15 day) time-scale disturbances that appear to originate primarily in the Caribbean Sea-western Atlantic Ocean. In the case of the MJO, enhanced low-level westerlies and large-scale rising motion provide an environment that favors large-scale cyclonic development near the west coast of Central America that, over the course of about 2 weeks, expands northward along the coast eventually reaching the mouth of the Gulf of California where it acts to enhance the southerly moisture flux in that region. On a larger scale, the development includes a northward shift in the eastern Pacific ITCZ, enhanced precipitation over much of Mexico and the southwestern United States, and enhanced southerly/southeasterly fluxes from the Gulf of Mexico into Mexico and the southwestern and central United States. In the case of the easterly waves, the systems that reach Mexico appear to redevelop/reorganize on the Pacific coast and then move rapidly to the northwest to contribute to the moisture flux into the Gulf of California. The most intense fluxes into the gulf on these time scales appear to be synchronized with a midlatitude short-wave trough over the U.S. West Coast and enhanced low-level southerly fluxes over the U.S. Great Plains. The intermediate (10-15 day) time-scale systems have zonal wavelengths roughly twice that of the easterly waves, and their initiation appears to be linked to an extratropical U.S. East Coast ridge and associated northeasterly winds that extend well into the Caribbean Sea during their development phase. The short (3-8 day) and, to a lesser extent, the intermediate (10-15 day) time-scale fluxes tend to be enhanced when the convectively active phase of the MJO is situated over the Americas.

Wu, Man-Li C.↗