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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity.

Irina N Kitiashvili↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Irina N Kitiashvili↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Irina N. Kitiashvili↗

DOE OSTI2010

Prediction of global solar irradiance based on time series analysis: Application to solar thermal power plants energy production planning

Due to strong increase of solar power generation, the predictions of incoming solar energy are acquiring more importance. Photovoltaic and solar thermal are the main sources of electricity generation from solar energy. In the case of solar thermal energy plants with storage energy system, its management and operation need reliable predictions of solar irradiance with the same temporal resolution as the temporal capacity of the back-up system. These plants can work like a conventional power plant and compete in the energy stock market avoiding intermittence in electricity production. This work presents a comparisons of statistical models based on time series applied to predict half daily values of global solar irradiance with a temporal horizon of 3 days. Half daily values consist of accumulated hourly global solar irradiance from solar raise to solar noon and from noon until dawn for each day. The dataset of ground solar radiation used belongs to stations of Spanish National Weather Service (AEMet). The models tested are autoregressive, neural networks and fuzzy logic models. Due to the fact that half daily solar irradiance time series is non-stationary, it has been necessary to transform it to two new stationary variables (clearness index and lost component) which are used as input of the predictive models. Improvement in terms of RMSD of the models essayed is compared against the model based on persistence. The validation process shows that all models essayed improve persistence. The best approach to forecast half daily values of solar irradiance is neural network models with lost component as input, except Lerida station where models based on clearness index have less uncertainty because this magnitude has a linear behaviour and it is easier to simulate by models. (author)

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Plasma Parameters and Geometry of Cool and Warm Active Region Loops

How the solar corona is heated to high temperatures remains an unsolved mystery in solar physics. In the present study we analyze observations of 50 whole active region loops taken with the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer on board the Hinode satellite. Eleven loops were classified as cool loops (<1 MK) and 39 as warm loops (1–2 MK). We study their plasma parameters, such as densities, temperatures, filling factors, nonthermal velocities, and Doppler velocities. We combine spectroscopic analysis with linear force-free magnetic field extrapolation to derive the 3D structure and positioning of the loops, their lengths and heights, and the magnetic field strength along the loops. We use density-sensitive line pairs from Fe xii, Fe xiii, Si x, and Mg vii ions to obtain electron densities by taking special care of intensity background subtraction. The emission measure loci method is used to obtain the loop temperatures. We find that the loops are nearly isothermal along the line of sight. Their filling factors are between 8% and 89%. We also compare the observed parameters with the theoretical Rosner–Tucker–Vaiana (RTV) scaling law. We find that most of the loops are in an overpressure state relative to the RTV predictions. In a follow-up study, we will report a heating model of a parallel-cascade-based mechanism and will compare the model parameters with the loop plasma and structural parameters derived here.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Stereoscopic study of the kinematic evolution of a coronal mass ejection and its driven shock from the sun to the earth and the prediction of their arrival times

We present a detailed study of the complete evolution of a coronal mass ejection (CME). We have tracked the evolution of both the ejecta and its shock, and further fit the evolution of the fronts to a simple but physics-based analytical model. This study focuses on the CME initiated on the Sun on 2012 July 12 and arriving at the Earth on 2012 July 14. Shock and ejecta fronts were observed by white light images, as well as in situ by the Advanced Composition Explorer satellite. We find that the propagation of the two fronts is not completely dependent upon one another, but can each be modeled in the heliosphere with a drag model that assumes the dominant force of affecting CME evolution to be the aerodynamic drag force of the ambient solar wind. Results indicate that the CME ejecta front undergoes a more rapid deceleration than the shock front within 50 R {sub ☉} and therefore the propagation of the two fronts is not completely coupled in the heliosphere. Using the graduated cylindrical shell model, as well as data from time-elongation stack plots and in situ signatures, we show that the drag model can accurately describe the behavior of each front, but is more effective with the ejecta. We also show that without the in situ data, based on measurements out to 80 R {sub ☉} combined with the general values for drag model parameters, the arrival of both the shock and ejecta can be predicted within four hours of arrival.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1979

Remote sensing of snow and ice

This paper reviews remote sensing of snow and ice, techniques for improved monitoring, and incorporation of the new data into forecasting and management systems. The snowcover interpretation of visible and infrared data from satellites, automated digital methods, radiative transfer modeling to calculate the solar reflectance of snow, and models using snowcover input data and elevation zones for calculating snowmelt are discussed. The use of visible and near infrared techniques for inferring snow properties, microwave monitoring of snowpack characteristics, use of Landsat images for collecting glacier data, monitoring of river ice with visible imagery from NOAA satellites, use of sequential imagery for tracking ice flow movement, and microwave studies of sea ice are described. Applications of snow and ice research to commercial use are examined, and it is concluded that a major problem to be solved is characterization of snow and ice in nature, since assigning of the correct properties to a real system to be modeled has been difficult.

Rango, A.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithms using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms

We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 hr. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on a huge amount of data. We used solar observation data during the period 2010–2015, such as vector magnetograms, ultraviolet (UV) emission, and soft X-ray emission taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite . We detected active regions (ARs) from the full-disk magnetogram, from which ∼60 features were extracted with their time differentials, including magnetic neutral lines, the current helicity, the UV brightening, and the flare history. After standardizing the feature database, we fully shuffled and randomly separated it into two for training and testing. To investigate which algorithm is best for flare prediction, we compared three machine-learning algorithms: the support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and extremely randomized trees. The prediction score, the true skill statistic, was higher than 0.9 with a fully shuffled data set, which is higher than that for human forecasts. It was found that k-NN has the highest performance among the three algorithms. The ranking of the feature importance showed that previous flare activity is most effective, followed by the length of magnetic neutral lines, the unsigned magnetic flux, the area of UV brightening, and the time differentials of features over 24 hr, all of which are strongly correlated with the flux emergence dynamics in an AR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Clear-Sky Probability for the 2023 Annular Solar Eclipse and the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse Using the NREL National Solar Radiation Database

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and collaborators have created a clear-sky probability analysis to help guide viewers to the 2023 annular solar eclipse and the 2024 total solar eclipse. Using cloud and solar data from the NREL National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the analysis provides cloudless-sky probabilities specific to the date, time, and location of each eclipse with a 4-km resolution. Though not intended to be an eclipse weather forecast, the detailed maps can help guide eclipse enthusiasts to likely optimal viewing locations. Additionally, high-resolution data are presented for the centerline of the path of each eclipse, representing the likelihood for cloudless skies and atmospheric clarity. The NSRDB provides industry, academia, and other stakeholders with high-resolution solar irradiance data to support feasibility analyses for photovoltaic and concentrating solar power generation projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

AVERAGE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF COSMIC RAYS BEHIND THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK—GLOBAL MUON DETECTOR NETWORK OBSERVATIONS

We analyze the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) density and its spatial gradient in Forbush Decreases (FDs) observed with the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN) and neutron monitors (NMs). By superposing the GCR density and density gradient observed in FDs following 45 interplanetary shocks (IP-shocks), each associated with an identified eruption on the Sun, we infer the average spatial distribution of GCRs behind IP-shocks. We find two distinct modulations of GCR density in FDs, one in the magnetic sheath and the other in the coronal mass ejection (CME) behind the sheath. The density modulation in the sheath is dominant in the western flank of the shock, while the modulation in the CME ejecta stands out in the eastern flank. This east–west asymmetry is more prominent in GMDN data responding to ∼60 GV GCRs than in NM data responding to ∼10 GV GCRs, because of the softer rigidity spectrum of the modulation in the CME ejecta than in the sheath. The geocentric solar ecliptic- y component of the density gradient, G {sub y}, shows a negative (positive) enhancement in FDs caused by the eastern (western) eruptions, while G {sub z} shows a negative (positive) enhancement in FDs caused by the northern (southern) eruptions. This implies that the GCR density minimum is located behind the central flank of IP-shocks and propagating radially outward from the location of the solar eruption. We also confirmed that the average G {sub z} changes its sign above and below the heliospheric current sheet, in accord with the prediction of the drift model for the large-scale GCR transport in the heliosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Atmospheric Response to High Nonthermal Electron Beam Fluxes in Solar Flares. I. Modeling the Brightest NUV Footpoints in the X1 Solar Flare of 2014 March 29

The 2014 March 29 X1 solar flare (SOL20140329T17:48) produced bright continuum emission in the far- and near-ultraviolet (NUV) and highly asymmetric chromospheric emission lines, providing long-sought constraints on the heating mechanisms of the lower atmosphere in solar flares. We analyze the continuum and emission line data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) of the brightest flaring magnetic footpoints in this flare. We compare the NUV spectra of the brightest pixels to new radiative-hydrodynamic predictions calculated with the RADYN code using constraints on a nonthermal electron beam inferred from the collisional thick-target modeling of hard X-ray data from Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager . We show that the atmospheric response to a high beam flux density satisfactorily achieves the observed continuum brightness in the NUV. The NUV continuum emission in this flare is consistent with hydrogen (Balmer) recombination radiation that originates from low optical depth in a dense chromospheric condensation and from the stationary beam-heated layers just below the condensation. A model producing two flaring regions (a condensation and stationary layers) in the lower atmosphere is also consistent with the asymmetric Fe ii chromospheric emission line profiles observed in the impulsive phase.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Future mission studies: Preliminary comparisons of solar flux models

The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F sub 10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.

Ashrafi, S.↗

DOE OSTI2016

First-principles prediction of solar radiation shielding performance for transparent windows of GdB{sub 6}

The structural, electronic, magnetic, and optical properties of GdB{sub 6} are studied using the first-principles calculations. Calculated values for magnetic and optical properties and lattice constant are found to be consistent with previously reported experimental results. The calculated results show that GdB{sub 6} is a perfect near-infrared absorption/reflectance material that could serve as a solar radiation shielding material for windows with high visible light transmittance, similar to LaB{sub 6}, which is assigned to its plasma oscillation and a collective oscillation (volume plasmon) of carrier electrons. It was found that the magnetic 4f electrons of Gd are not relevant to the important optical properties of GdB{sub 6}. These theoretical studies serve as a reference for future studies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2013

Forecasting Propagation and Evolution of CMEs in an Operational Setting: What Has Been Learned

One of the major types of solar eruption, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only impact space weather, but also can have significant societal consequences. CMEs cause intense geomagnetic storms and drive fast mode shocks that accelerate charged particles, potentially resulting in enhanced radiation levels both in ions and electrons. Human and technological assets in space can be endangered as a result. CMEs are also the major contributor to generating large amplitude Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs), which are a source of concern for power grid safety. Due to their space weather significance, forecasting the evolution and impacts of CMEs has become a much desired capability for space weather operations worldwide. Based on our operational experience at Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov), we present here some of the insights gained about accurately predicting CME impacts, particularly in relation to space weather operations. These include: 1. The need to maximize information to get an accurate handle of three-dimensional (3-D) CME kinetic parameters and therefore improve CME forecast; 2. The potential use of CME simulation results for qualitative prediction of regions of space where solar energetic particles (SEPs) may be found; 3. The need to include all CMEs occurring within a ~24 h period for a better representation of the CME interactions; 4. Various other important parameters in forecasting CME evolution in interplanetary space, with special emphasis on the CME propagation direction. It is noted that a future direction for our CME forecasting is to employ the ensemble modeling approach.

forecasting↗

NASA NTRS1976

Monitoring solar radiation: The ERDA program

An overview of the Energy Research and Development Administration planned insolation data network is described. The design of the network is predicated on an analysis and definition of user requirements. Research and analysis projects covering data collection, forecasting and extrapolation are presented.

Koomanoff, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Radiation shielding estimates for manned Mars space flight

In the analysis of the required radiation shielding protection of spacecraft during a Mars flight, specific effects of solar activity (SA) on the intensity of galactic and solar cosmic rays were taken into consideration. Three spaceflight periods were considered: (1) maximum SA; (2) minimum SA; and (3) intermediate SA, when intensities of both galactic and solar cosmic rays are moderately high. Scenarios of spaceflights utilizing liquid-propellant rocket engines, low- and intermediate-thrust nuclear electrojet engines, and nuclear rocket engines, all of which have been designed in the Soviet Union, are reviewed. Calculations were performed on the basis of a set of standards for radiation protection approved by the U.S.S.R. State Committee for Standards. It was found that the lowest estimated mass of a Mars spacecraft, including the radiation shielding mass, obtained using a combination of a liquid propellant engine with low and intermediate thrust nuclear electrojet engines, would be 500-550 metric tons.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2015

Computer simulation of nonstationary thermal fields in design and operation of northern oil and gas fields

A mathematical model, numerical algorithm and program code for simulation and long-term forecasting of changes in permafrost as a result of operation of a multiple well pad of northern oil and gas field are presented. In the model the most significant climatic and physical factors are taken into account such as solar radiation, determined by specific geographical location, heterogeneous structure of frozen soil, thermal stabilization of soil, possible insulation of the objects, seasonal fluctuations in air temperature, and freezing and thawing of the upper soil layer. Results of computing are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2018

Interactions Between Asian Air Pollution and Monsoon System: South Asia (ROSES-2014 ACMAP)

Asia's rapid economic growth over the past several decades has brought a remarkable increase in air pollution levels in that region. High concentrations of aerosols (also known as particulate matter or PM) from pollution sources pose major health hazards to half of the world population in Asia including South Asia. How do pollution and dust aerosols regulate the monsoon circulation and rainfall via scattering and absorbing solar radiation, changing the atmospheric heating rates, and modifying the cloud properties? We conducted a series of regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NUWRF) regional model with coupled aerosol-chemistry-radiation-microphysics processes over South Asia for winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons to address this question. This study investigates the worsening air quality problem in South Asia by focusing on the interactions between pollution and South Asian monsoon, not merely focusing on the increase of pollutant emissions.

regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weath↗