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At least 145 records · Page 8

Methodology for determination and use of the no-escape envelope of an air-to-air-missile

A large gap exists between optimal control and differential-game theory and their applications. The purpose of this paper is to show how this gap may be bridged. Missile-avoidance of realistically simulated infrared heat-seeking, fire-and-forget missile is studied. In detailed simulations, sweeping out the discretized initial condition space, avoidance methods based on pilot experience are combined with those based on simplified optimal control analysis to derive an approximation to the no-escape missile envelopes. The detailed missile equations and no-escape envelopes were then incorporated into an existing piloted simulation of air-to-air combat to generate missile firing decisions as well as missile avoidance commands. The use of these envelopes was found to be effective in both functions.

Neuman, Frank

NARC Rayon Replacement Program for the RSRM Nozzle, Phase IV Qualification and Implementation Status

The Space Shuttle NARC Rayon Replacement Program has down-selected Enka rayon as a replacement for the obsolete NARC rayon in the nozzle carbon cloth phenolic (CCP) ablative insulators. Full qualification testing of the Enka rayon-based carbon cloth phenolic is underway, including processing, thmal/structural properties, and hot-fire subscale tests. Required thermal-structural capabilities, together with confidence in erosio/char performance in simulated and subscale hot fire tests such as Wright-Patterson Air Force Base Laser Hardened Materials Evaluation Laboratory testing, NASA-MSFC 24-inch motor tests, NASA-MSFC Solid Fuel Torch - Super Sonic Blast Tube, NASA-MSFC Plasma Torch Test Bed, ATK Thiokol Forty Pound Charge and NASA-MSFC MNASA justified the testing of the new Enka-rayon candidate on full-scale static test motors. The first RSRM full-scale static test motor nozzle, fabricated using the new Enka rayon-based CCP, was successfully demonstrated in June 2004. Two additional static test motors are planned with the new Enka rayon in the next two years along with additional A-basis property characterization. Process variation or "corner-of-the-box" testing together with cured and uncured aging studies are also planned as some of the pre-flight implementation activities with 5-year cured aging studies over-lapping flight hardware fabrication.

Haddock, M. Reed

Structural uncertainty assessment for fire-engulfed objects in crosswind: Establishing credibility for a multiphysics wall-modeled large-eddy simulation paradigm

A structural uncertainty validation study for a large-scale, fire-engulfed, elevated object subjected to crosswind is presented to establish the credibility of a high-fidelity, low-Mach, turbulent reacting flow wall-modeled large-eddy simulation (WMLES) approach that includes multiphysics coupling to participating media radiation and conjugate heat transfer. To establish that WMLES can accurately predict surface quantities including drag and pressure coefficient in the low-Mach crosswind regime, a foundational elevated isothermal cylinder validation case is presented at a similar gap-to-diameter ratio of 0.25, spanning the subcritical to supercritical drag regime (Re 𝐷 = 1.1 × 10 5 and 4.3 × 10 5 , respectively). Here, this study exercised both static and dynamic coefficient LES (Smagorinsky and 𝑘 sgs ) with both local and exchange-based velocity sampling. Results showcase that the drag crisis (or the sudden drop in drag coefficient at increased Re 𝐷 ) is well captured when using an exchange-based dynamic coefficient WMLES methodology, while noting lack of mesh convergence and overall drag and pressure coefficient predictively when using a static coefficient, local velocity sampling WMLES. For the 𝒪⁡(10) m JP-8 liquid pool fire crosswind validation study presented, two experimental crosswind configurations (2 m/s and 9.5 m/s) are showcased for a fire-engulfed mock fuselage roughly 4 m in diameter. Using the best model-form practices identified in the isothermal study, dynamic coefficient 𝑘 sgs exchange-based WMLES fire validation findings demonstrate accurate peak irradiation and skin temperature predictions as a function of crosswind magnitude. Excessive yaw in the low-crosswind fuselage configuration, consistent with experimental findings, captured a significant predicted asymmetry in flame attachment and heat flux toward the downwind cylindrical cap—indicative of axial vortex structures transporting the flame along the upper and lower fuselage leeward surface. All fire mesh resolution simulations captured the experimental finding that as crosswind increased, predicted flame shape and peak irradiation magnitude onto the fuselage transitioned from a windward to a leeward cylinder location due to the migration of the upper- to lower-shear fuel/air mixing layer thereby demonstrating the novelty, significance, and credibility of this high-fidelity WMLES reacting flow framework.

Domino, Stefan Paul [Sandia National Laboratories

Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

Arima, Eugenio Y.

TPSAS-NF1676L-11382-DND

Long-range transport of ozone precursor species and carbonaceous aerosols emitted by wildfires may affect the atmospheric composition and regional climate far away from the location of the fires. Major outbreaks of fires occurred in 3 areas of Asia, Kazakhstan, Siberia, and Thailand, during the spring of 2008. Satellite and aircraft-based observations and trajectory studies have identified the transit of the plumes from these fires across the Pacific. We have conducted simulations of the effects of these fires on the atmospheric composition using the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS). RAQMS is a global scale meteorological and chemical modeling system with unified (stratosphere/troposphere) chemistry module. Model results, for example, indicate that increases of 10 ppbv in upper tropospheric ozone at 180W longitude and northern mid-latitudes in April, 2008 could be attributed to these fires. Large increases in aerosol optical depth due to carbonaceous aerosols are also seen nearer the fire location. Both tropospheric ozone and carbonaceous aerosols influence the atmospheric energy balance and climate. We use an off-line radiative transfer model along with the RAQMS chemical and aerosol analyses to calculate the direct radiative forcing during April, 2008, due to Asian wildfire emissions. Arctic indirect radiative forcing due to these emissions are evaluated using RAQMS aerosol extinction analyses in conjunction with MODIS retrievals of cloud liquid water and effective radius. We will discuss the radiative forcing results and the relative influences of the different fire events.

Murali Natarajan

Impacts of Estimated Plume Rise on PM 2.5 Exceedance Prediction During Extreme Wildfire Events: A Comparison of Three Schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev)

Plume height plays a vital role in wildfire smoke dispersion and the subsequent effects on air quality and human health. In this study, we assess the impact of different plume rise schemes on predicting the dispersion of wildfire air pollution and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) during the 2020 western United States wildfire season. Three widely used plume rise schemes (Briggs, 1969; Freitas et al., 2007; Sofiev et al., 2012) are compared within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling framework. The plume heights simulated by these schemes are comparable to the aerosol height observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The performance of the simulations with these schemes varies by fire case and weather conditions. On average, simulations with higher plume injection heights predict lower aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM 2.5 concentrations near the source region but higher AOD and PM 2.5 in downwind regions due to the faster spread of the smoke plume once ejected. The 2-month mean AOD difference caused by different plume rise schemes is approximately 20 %–30 % near the source regions and 5 %–10 % in the downwind regions. Thick smoke blocks sunlight and suppresses photochemical reactions in areas with high AOD. The surface PM 2.5 difference reaches 70 % on the West Coast of the USA, and the difference is lower than 15 % in the downwind regions. Moreover, the plume injection height affects pollution exceedance (>35 µg m−3) predictions. Higher plume heights generally produce larger downwind PM 2.5 exceedance areas. The PM 2.5 exceedance areas predicted by the three schemes largely overlap, suggesting that all schemes perform similarly during large wildfire events when the predicted concentrations are well above the exceedance threshold. At the edges of the smoke plumes, however, there are noticeable differences in the PM 2.5 concentration and predicted PM 2.5 exceedance region. For the whole period of study, the difference in the total number of exceedance days could be as large as 20 d in northern California and 4 d in the downwind regions. This disagreement among the PM 2.5 exceedance forecasts may affect key decision-making regarding early warning of extreme air pollution episodes at local levels during large wildfire events.

Yunyao Li

Creating IR-verified Gridded Fire Burn Maps using Public NASA and Satellite Data

Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes, providing value by decreasing fuels at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) to promote safe communities. However, uncontained wildfires can devastate communities, threaten our health, and result in substantial economic losses. There has been greater than a $50B increase in wildfire insurance claims from 2017-2021, which has been exacerbated by climate change. Our partners at Kettle reinsurance are focused on building a smarter reinsurance model for protecting today’s globalized world from the catastrophic effects of climate change. Our objective is to develop a high-confidence grid-based wildfire burn product using multiple sources of satellite data to determine whether a ‘conflagration' (fire larger than 999+ acres) has ‘breached’ a grid cell. This product will substantially decrease the time it takes for homeowners to receive payouts, from over a year to a couple months. Working with our partners at Kettle reinsurance, we use VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) 375 m fire detections and Sentinel-2 10 m satellite imagery to create a 20-m gridded fire burn product. Our process is based on the level of confidence in the data source and takes into account vegetation change throughout the life of the fire. For example, Sentinel-2 vegetation-change indices have a higher level of confidence when congruent with VIIRS active-fire detection data, rather than VIIRS detections alone. We have also verified our fire burn product against MODIS/ASTER Airborne Simulator (MASTER) Infrared (IR) data from the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments Experiment - Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) 2019 campaign, with 88% overall agreement. The first iteration has been developed for responding to wildfires in California, with the possibility to expand nationwide and globally.

Emily Gargulinski

Simulations of the large-scale environment during the FIRE Cirrus IFO

A numerical model that can facilitate the study of cirrus cloud systems is described in an effort to understand the dynamics during the first FIRE IFO. The model has a developed horizontal and vertical structure in the moisture fields with scales of order 200 km that were not found in the NMC analyses, suggesting that the model simulations can be used to describe the large-scale environment in which aircraft, surface, and satellite observations were made. The results of this preliminary simulation warrant application of the model to other case studies, particularly that of October 27-28, 1986.

Westphal, Douglas L.

Fire Detection Organizing Questions

Verified models of fire precursor transport in low and partial gravity: a. Development of models for large-scale transport in reduced gravity. b. Validated CFD simulations of transport of fire precursors. c. Evaluation of the effect of scale on transport and reduced gravity fires. Advanced fire detection system for gaseous and particulate pre-fire and fire signaturesa: a. Quantification of pre-fire pyrolysis products in microgravity. b. Suite of gas and particulate sensors. c. Reduced gravity evaluation of candidate detector technologies. d. Reduced gravity verification of advanced fire detection system. e. Validated database of fire and pre-fire signatures in low and partial gravity.

Source record

Smoke, Clouds, and Radiation-Brazil (SCAR-B) Experiment

The Smoke, Clouds, and Radiation-Brazil (SCAR-B) field project took place in the Brazilian Amazon and cerrado regions in August-September 1995 as a collaboration between Brazilian and American scientists. SCAR-B, a comprehensive experiment to study biomass burning, emphasized measurements of surface biomass, fires, smoke aerosol and trace gases, clouds, and radiation. their climatic effects, and remote sensing from aircraft and satellites. It included aircraft and ground-based in situ measurements of smoke emission factors and the compositions, sizes, and optical properties of the smoke particles; studies of the formation of ozone; the transport and evolution of smoke; and smoke interactions with water vapor and clouds. This overview paper introduces SCAR-B and summarizes some of the main results obtained so far. (1) Fires: measurements of the size distribution of fires, using the 50 m resolution MODIS Airborne Simulator, show that most of the fires are small (e.g. 0.005 square km), but the satellite sensors (e.g., AVHRR and MODIS with I km resolution) can detect fires in Brazil which are responsible for 60-85% of the burned biomass: (2) Aerosol: smoke particles emitted from fires increase their radius by as much as 60%, during their first three days in the atmosphere due to condensation and coagulation, reaching a mass median radius of 0.13-0.17 microns: (3) Radiative forcing: estimates of the globally averaged direct radiative forcing due to smoke worldwide, based on the properties of smoke measured in SCAR-B (-O.l to -0.3 W m(exp -2)), are smaller than previously modeled due to a lower single-scattering albedo (0.8 to 0.9), smaller scattering efficiency (3 square meters g(exp -2) at 550 nm), and low humidification factor; and (4) Effect on clouds: a good relationship was found between cloud condensation nuclei and smoke volume concentrations, thus an increase in the smoke emission is expected to affect cloud properties. In SCAR-B, new techniques were developed for deriving the absorption and refractive index of smoke from ground-based remote sensing. Future spaceborne radiometers (e.g., MODIS on the Earth Observing System), simulated on aircraft, proved to be very useful for monitoring smoke properties, surface properties, and the impacts of smoke on radiation and climate.

Kaufman, Y. J.

Assessment of the impact of dipped guideways on urban rail transit systems: Ventilation and safety requirements

The ventilation and fire safety requirements for subway tunnels with dipped profiles between stations as compared to subway tunnels with level profiles were evaluated. This evaluation is based upon computer simulations of a train fire emergency condition. Each of the tunnel configurations evaluated was developed from characteristics that are representative of modern transit systems. The results of the study indicate that: (1) The level tunnel system required about 10% more station cooling than dipped tunnel systems in order to meet design requirements; and (2) The emergency ventilation requirements are greater with dipped tunnel systems than with level tunnel systems.

Source record

Reliability assessment of thrust chamber cooling concepts using probabilistic analysis techniques

The reliability of OFHC (Oxygen Free High Conductivity) copper and NARloy-Z thrust chambers is assessed by applying probabilistic structural analysis techniques to incorporate design parameter variability and uncertainty. Thrust chambers specifically evaluated are the cylindrical test fixtures employed in a plug-nozzle configuration at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Direct sampling Monte Carlo simulations based on a simplified life prediction methodology established probability densities of firing cycles to structural failure. Simulated cyclic lives demonstrated modest agreement to experiment. Similarly, regions of high structural failure probability were determined using a limit state approach employing calculated cumulative distribution functions for effective stress response and an assumed material strength distribution. A probability of failure of 0.012 was calculated at the center of the coolant channel hot-gas-side wall for an OFHC milled channel. Structural response was found to be sensitive to the uncertainties in the thrust chamber thermal environment and the material's thermal expansion coefficient.

Rapp, Douglas C.

Reliability assessment of thrust chamber cooling concepts using probabilistic analysis techniques

The reliability of OFHC (Oxygen Free High Conductivity) copper and NARloy-Z thrust chambers is assessed by applying probabilistic structural analysis techniques to incorporate design parameter variability and uncertainty. Thrust chambers specifically evaluated are the cylindrical test fixtures employed in a plug-nozzle configuration at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Direct sampling Monte Carlo simulations based on a simplified life prediction methodology established probability densities of firing cycles to structural failure. Simulated cyclic lives demonstrated modest agreement to experiment. Similarly, regions of high structural failure probability were determined using a limit state approach employing calculated cumulative distribution functions for effective stress response and an assumed material strength distribution. A probability of failure of 0.012 was calculated at the center of the coolant channel hot-gas-side wall for an OFHC milled channel. Structural response was found to be sensitive to the uncertainties in the thrust chamber thermal environment and the material's thermal expansion coefficient.

Rapp, Douglas C.

Hypersonic, nonequilibrium flow over the FIRE 2 forebody at 1634 sec

The numerical simulation of hypersonic flow in thermochemical nonequilibrium over the forebody of the FIRE 2 vehicle at 1634 sec in its trajectory is described. The simulation was executed on a Cray C90 with the program Langley Aerodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) 4.0.2. Code setup procedures and sample results, including grid refinement studies, are discussed. This simulation relates to a study of radiative heating predictions on aerobrake type vehicles.

Chambers, Lin Hartung

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.

Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.