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At least 145 records · Page 8

How Rains and Floods Become Groundwater: Understanding Recharge Pathways With Stable and Cosmogenic Isotopes

Anthropogenic climate change leads to increased precipitation intensity and exacerbated droughts in California, challenging the reliability and drought resiliency of water supply. Storing floodwater underground via managed aquifer recharge can mitigate these effects through direct infiltration or streambed infiltration. Seasonally dry streams (arroyos) already play an important part in managing groundwater recharge to the Livermore basin (CA). Understanding how, when and where stormwater and arroyo water infiltrate is critical to effectively utilise this strategy. To track water from recent storms (water year 2022–2023, WY23) into the Livermore Valley Groundwater Basin, we analysed stable water isotopes (δ 18 O and δ 2 H) in combination with naturally occurring radioactive isotopic tracers, sulphur-35 ( 35 S, t ½ = 87 days) and tritium ( 3 H, t ½ = 12.3 years). By comparing measurements of δ 18 O, 35 S and 3 H in arroyos to precipitation and groundwater, we classified the relative age and identified source of recharge to 16 wells near two arroyos. Two wells contained water with recent recharge (from WY23) from local precipitation. One well had recent recharge from variable (precipitation and imported water) sources. One well contained imported water recharge. Three wells contained water from mixed recent and older (pre-WY23) waters, from local precipitation sources. Two wells contained recent recharge from local mine settling ponds. Seven wells had older recharge from local precipitation sources. This combination of isotopes allows us to delineate where local and imported water recharges in this highly managed basin and identify locations where managed aquifer recharge is contributing to rapid groundwater infiltration. Our combined interpretation of isotopic water ages and sources in the context of land use shows that local infiltration of precipitation in open spaces is an important recharge mechanism, in addition to the managed arroyo recharge. Finally, a broader familiarity with 35 S will enable more extensive research on the infiltration of urban floodwaters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Climate change challenges, plant science solutions

Abstract Climate change is a defining challenge of the 21st century, and this decade is a critical time for action to mitigate the worst effects on human populations and ecosystems. Plant science can play an important role in developing crops with enhanced resilience to harsh conditions (e.g. heat, drought, salt stress, flooding, disease outbreaks) and engineering efficient carbon-capturing and carbon-sequestering plants. Here, we present examples of research being conducted in these areas and discuss challenges and open questions as a call to action for the plant science community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum: Forecasting Hurricane Effects at Landfall

Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones strike Central American, Caribbean, Southeast Asian and Pacific Island nations even more frequently than the U.S. The global losses of life and property from the floods, landslides and debris flows caused by cyclonic storms are staggering. One of the keys to reducing these losses, both in the U.S. and internationally, is to have better forecasts of what is about to happen from several hours to days before the event. Particularly in developing nations where science, technology and communication are limited, advance-warning systems can have great impact. In developing countries, warnings of even a few hours or days can mitigate or reduce catastrophic losses of life. With the foregoing needs in mind, we propose an initial project of three years total duration that will aim to develop and transfer a warning system for a prototype region in the Central Caribbean, specifically the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum will include satellite observations to track and nowcast dangerous levels of precipitation, atmospheric and hydrological models to predict near-future runoff, and streamflow changes in affected regions, and landslide models to warn when and where landslides and debris flows are imminent. Since surface communications are likely to be interrupted during these crises, the project also includes the capability to communicate disaster information via satellite to vital government officials in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.

Negri, A.↗

Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research

Atmospheric blocking often results in significant weather extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, cold spells, and floods in mid-latitude regions. However, the physical processes behind blocking and its response to climate change are not well understood, which undermines predictions and decision-making for climate mitigation and adaptation. As a phenomenon with a timescale at the interface of weather and climate, blocking interacts with various elements of the climate system and connects short-term weather events to long-term climate extremes. Understanding atmospheric blocking is crucial, given that climate change may impact its frequency, duration, and geographic distribution. This perspective discusses new experimental approaches to improve our understanding of this important subject.

Wang, Lei [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (↗

Hybrid Uses of High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage: Lessons Learned from Previous Projects

One of the critical challenges of the green energy transition is resolving the mismatch between energy generation provided by intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind and the demand for energy. There is a need for large amounts of energy storage over a range of time scales (diurnal to seasonal) to better balance energy supply and demand. Subsurface geologic reservoirs provide the potential for storage of hot water that can be retrieved when needed and used for power generation or direct-use applications, such as district heating. It is important to identify potential issues associated with high-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage (HT-RTES) systems so that they can be mitigated, thus reducing the risks of these systems. This paper reviews past experiences from moderate and high-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES) projects, along with hot water and steam flood enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations, to identify technical challenges encountered and evaluate possible ways to address them. Some of the identified technical problems that have impacted system performance include: 1) insufficient site characterization that failed to identify reservoir heterogeneity; 2) scaling resulting from precipitation of minerals having retrograde solubility that form with heating of formation brines; 3) corrosion from low pH or high salinity brines; 4) thermal breakthrough between hot and cold wells due to insufficient spacing. Proper design, characterization, construction, and operational practices can help reduce the risk of technical problems that could lead to reduced performance of these thermal energy storage systems.

energy storage↗

Effects of Urbanization in China on the East Asian Summer Monsoon as Revealed by Two Global Climate Models

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, exerts profound impacts on precipitation in East Asia. In recent decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. It has not yet reached a consensus on its influences on EASM. Here, we introduce satellite‐derived urban impervious areas of China during 1985–2017 into two global climate models with contrasting biases of climatological EASM simulation. Both models consistently show that urbanization weakens EASM by increasing surface friction drag. The increased surface roughness reduces climatological southerly winds in the concentrated urbanization area. As a result, moisture convergence occurs south of the concentrated urbanization area with ascending motion, while moisture divergence with descending motion appears to the north, resulting in the precipitation anomalies of “southern flood and northern drought.” The dominant role of urban dynamic forcing in regulating EASM is confirmed by reducing urban roughness to the level of croplands in sensitivity experiments. As urban dynamic forcing is largely mitigated, the urbanization impact mainly driven by urban thermal forcing conversely strengthens EASM due to enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast via urbanization‐induced warming. Spatial patterns and magnitudes of the urbanization‐induced EASM weakening vary between the two models due to disparities in their simulations of urban thermodynamic forcing and atmospheric adjustments. These results underscore the robust weakening effect of urbanization on EASM by urban friction drag and document uncertainties in the related spatial pattern and magnitude resulting from model discrepancies.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Low Latency DESDynI Data Products for Disaster Response, Resource Management and Other Applications

We are developing onboard processor technology targeted at the L-band SAR instrument onboard the planned DESDynI mission to enable formation of SAR images onboard opening possibilities for near-real-time data products to augment full data streams. Several image processing and/or interpretation techniques are being explored as possible direct-broadcast products for use by agencies in need of low-latency data, responsible for disaster mitigation and assessment, resource management, agricultural development, shipping, etc. Data collected through UAVSAR (L-band) serves as surrogate to the future DESDynI instrument. We have explored surface water extent as a tool for flooding response, and disturbance images on polarimetric backscatter of repeat pass imagery potentially useful for structural collapse (earthquake), mud/land/debris-slides etc. We have also explored building vegetation and snow/ice classifiers, via support vector machines utilizing quad-pol backscatter, cross-pol phase, and a number of derivatives (radar vegetation index, dielectric estimates, etc.). We share our qualitative and quantitative results thus far.

applications↗

Shifting Trade-offs: Finding the Sustainable Nexus of Hydropower and Environmental Flows in the San Joaquin River Watershed, California

Environmental flow management in watersheds with multi-objective reservoirs is often presented as an additional constraint to an already strained and over-allocated stream system. Nevertheless, environmental flow legislation and regulatory policies are increasingly being developed and implemented globally. In California, USA, recent legislative and regulatory policies place environmental flows at the forefront of the state’s water management objectives; however, the increased reliance on hydropower to support climate change mitigation goals may complicate efforts on both issues. This study modelled alternative environmental flow strategies in the major tributaries to the San Joaquin River in California. Strategies included detailed water management rules for hydropower production, flood control, and water deliveries, and three methodological approaches to environmental flow releases: minimum instream flows (“baseline”) year-round, 40% of full natural flow (FNF) during the spring runoff season and minimum releases the remainder of the year, and functional flows year-round. Results show that environmental flow strategies affect downstream flow releases in each of the San Joaquin’s four sub-basins differently depending on infrastructure capacity, water management objectives, and hydrologic year types. While hydropower production was comparable or declined in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced basins, functional flow and 40% FNF strategies increased hydropower production in the Upper San Joaquin basin by 11%. Uncontrolled spill of high flow events decreased when high flow releases were based on hydrologic cues rather than exclusively on flood storage capacity. Water deliveries were reduced in all years regardless of environmental flow strategy. The 40% FNF and functional flow strategies both increased water released to the river relative to baseline, but in different ways. The functional flow strategy allocated water in a holistic approach that enhanced ecological functions in all years, but particularly in moderate and wet years. In contrast, the 40% FNF strategy provided increased flows relative to baseline and some ecological benefit in dry years, but less ecological benefit in other years. This study shows that alternative environmental flow strategies will have different and important trade-offs for integrated water management, and may mutually benefit seemingly conflicting objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Core Spacecraft Systems Engineering Challenges

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and other US and international partners, with the goal of monitoring the diurnal and seasonal variations in precipitation over the surface of the earth. These measurements will be used to improve current climate models and weather forecasting, and enable improved storm and flood warnings. This paper gives an overview of the mission architecture and addresses the status of some key trade studies, including the geolocation budgeting, design considerations for spacecraft charging, and design issues related to the mitigation of orbital debris.

Bundas, David J.↗

Inventory and Probabilistic Function of Natural Hazards in the United States: July 19, 2018 - September 18, 2018

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a standardized risk assessment process that considers the location-specific vulnerabilities and threats (climate-related as well as human-caused) at a site to generate a ranked list of organizational risks and associated mitigation options for reducing those risks. To support this effort, the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) team, was selected to provide climate science expertise to develop a comprehensive inventory and probabilistic function of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and sea level rise) for the entire United States by region. The inventory of climate-related hazards and the associated likelihood scores are incorporated into a companion risk assessment tool enabling standardized comparisons of risk at sites across the country.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling (Asseng et al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).

climate↗

FloodPlanet: High-Resolution Commercial Imagery for Training and Validation of Deep Learning-Based Models of Inundation Extent

Flooding events are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide and are known to cause extensive damage. Public optical and radar satellite imagery can be used to detect large areas of inundation in rural areas, however, long revisit times and coarse spatial resolution limit applications for short-lived events and urban areas. Commercial constellations such as those operated by Planet offer increased spatial and temporal resolution and can supplement mapping efforts to provide more information to disaster response, relief, and mitigation efforts. Deep learning requires high quality labeled data for training across coincident sensors. The FloodPlanet dataset presented here contains labeled surface water for 18 events across the world based on Planetscope imagery with coincident Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 ( HLS) or Sentinel-1 and builds upon the previously existing Sen1Floods11, xBD, and NASA Sentinel-1 datasets. Sen1Floods11 includes 4,831 512x512 pixel overlapping tiles of coincident Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data observing 11 flood events across the world from 2017-2019. The dataset contains a combination of automated and hand-labeled surface water for use in training and validation of inundation modeling efforts. The xBD dataset identifies flood-damaged buildings and indicates the scale of damage to each (none, minor, moderate, and major) from four flood events which occurred in the United States, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh from the same time period. The NASA dataset contains hand-labeled water bodies observed in Sentinel-1 imagery during five flood events within the 2017-2019 period. The effort presented here utilizes observations from these previously investigated flood events to generate labels of surface water at the 3-5m spatial resolution provided by Planetscope and facilitate the comparison between public and commercial data. A data pipeline was built which uses clustering algorithms to pick the most suitable overlapping chips between the public data and PlanetScope data for manual labeling. Labels were created manually using NASA’s ImageLabeler tool and include areas of high- and low-confidence water. The high confidence designation is reserved for areas of open, unobstructed water while low confidence is used for areas of suspected water beneath vegetation, clouds, or cloud shadows. Expected to be released in late 2022, the FloodPlanet dataset will include tiled imagery with a unique ID for each 1024x1024 pixel tile, 7 bands of HLS data, and high- and low-confidence flood labels in both shapefile and tiff formats. The authors will follow Spatial Temporal Access Catalog (STAC) guidelines to release FloodPlanet on the Radiant Earth ML hub, which hosts public datasets for machine learning.

Alexander Melancon↗

HydroSAR: A Cloud-based SAR Data Analysis Service to Monitor Hydrological Disasters and their Impact on Population and Agriculture

Weather-related hazards are ubiquitous around the world including: 1) hurricane storm surges, 2) rapid snowmelt and heavy rainfall, 3) severe weather leading to flash floods, and 4) seasonal freeze and thaw of rivers that may lead to ice jams. Each of these hazards affects human settlements and has the potential to impact agricultural productivity. In each setting, end-users in disaster management need access to data processing tools helpful in mapping past and current disasters. Analysis of past events supports risk mitigation by understanding what has already occurred and how to alleviate those impacts in the future. Having capabilities to generate the same products in a response setting means that lessons learned from risk analysis will carry forward to event response. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are particularly useful for these activities due to their all-weather 24/7 monitoring capabilities. In this effort we present HydroSAR, a cloud-based SAR data analysis service for the mapping of meteorological and hydrological disasters as well as their impact on population and agriculture. As part of this project we have developed a series of SAR-based value added products for the monitoring of surface hydrology (image time series, change detection, flood extent, flood depth) and the assessment of impacts on population (flood depth) and agriculture (active agriculture, inundated agriculture, flood duration). We also developed a cloud-based platform for generating these products over affected areas and are working with end-users to integrate derived product into decision-making workflows The paper will briefly introduce the SAR-based products that were developed for this effort. We describe the cloud-based production pipeline that was built to automatically generate these products in near-real time over extended regions. The integration of SAR-based information into hazard preparation and response activities is described for a number of recent disasters including the 2019 forest fires in Alaska, 2019 flooding in the U.S. Midwest, the 2020 U.S. severe weather easter outbreak, 2020 tropical storm Christobal, 2020 cyclone Amphan, 2020, Alaska Spring breakup flooding, and the 2020 flood season in Eastern India, Bangladesh, and Nepal.

Franz Josef Meyer↗

Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models

Precipitation plays a crucial role in Africa's agriculture, water resources, and economic stability, and assessing its potential changes under future warming is important. In this study, we demonstrate that the latest generation of coupled climate models (CMIP6) robustly project substantial wetting over western, central, and eastern Africa. In contrast, southern Africa and Madagascar tend toward future drying. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (defined by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), our results suggest that most parts of Africa, except for southern Africa and Madagascar, will experience very wet years five times more often in 2050–2100, according to the multi-model median. Conversely, southern Africa and Madagascar will experience very dry years twice as often by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, we find that the increasing risk of extreme annual rainfall is accompanied by a shift toward days with heavier rainfall. Our findings provide important insights into inter-hemispheric changes in precipitation characteristics under future warming and underscore the need for serious mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The ~lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

Hildebrand, Peter H.↗

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Abstract This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗