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NASA NTRS2003

The Geomagnetic Field During a Reversal

By modifying the IGRF it is possible to learn what may happen to the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic reversal. If the entire IGRF reverses then the declination and inclination only reverse when the field strength is zero. If only the dipole component of the IGRF reverses a large geomagnetic field remains when the dipole component is zero and he direction of the field at the end of the reversal is not exactly reversed from the directions at the beginning of the reversal.

Heirtzler, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Large decreases in ionospheric total electron content as a result of thermospheric composition changes during geomagnetic storms

The geomagnetic storms of April 17-21,2002 and May 29-30,2003 caused large decreases in the O/N2 column density ratio in the thermosphere. For these storms, ON2 column density decreases of greater than 50% were observed to extend to mid-to-low latitudes with the FUV sensitive Earth Camera of the Visible Imaging System (VIS) on the Polar spacecraft. Simultaneously in these same regions, the ground-based GPS network observed approximately 80% reductions in the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere. The reduction in the Om2 column density ratio is due mainly to increases in the molecular species that have welled-up into the thermosphere from the lower levels of the atmosphere due to auroral heating. The geomagnetic-storm driven increase in molecular densities at typical ionospheric heights rapidly charge exchange with the ambient ionized atoms and subsequently dissociatively recombine with the ionospheric electrons leading to a reduction in the total charge density. The transition boundaries between high and low regions of O/N2 as well as TEC can be tracked in the images and the thermospheric winds can be determined from the motion of the boundaries. The motion of these boundaries during the development of the geomagnetic storm will be discussed.

Sigwarth, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Dynamics of Thermospheric Composition and Ionospheric Total Electron Content During Geomagnetic Storms

The geomagnetic storms of April 17-21,2002 and May 29-30,2003 caused large decreases in the O/N2 column density ratio in the thermosphere. For these storms, O/N2 column density decreases of greater than 50% were observed to extend to mid-to-low latitudes with the FUV sensitive Earth Camera of the Visible Imaging System (VIS) on the Polar spacecraft. Simultaneously in these same regions, the ground-based GPS network observed approximately 80% reductions in the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere. The reduction in the O/N2 column density ratio is due mainly to increases in the molecular species that have welled-up into the thermosphere from the lower levels of the atmosphere due to auroral heating. The geomagnetic-storm driven increase in molecular densities at typical ionospheric heights rapidly charge exchange with the ambient ionized atoms and subsequently dissociatively recombine with the ionospheric electrons leading to a reduction in the total charge density. The transition boundaries between high and low regions of O/N2 as well as TEC can be tracked in the images and the thermospheric winds may be inferred from the motion of the boundaries. The motion of these boundaries during the development of the geomagnetic storm will be discussed.

Sigwarth, John B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) Generated by Corotating Interaction Regions

Seventy-nine major geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) observed in 1996 to 2004 were the focus of a Living with a Star Coordinated Data-Analysis Workshop (CDAW) in March, 2005. In 9 cases, the storm driver appears to have been purely a corotating interaction region (CIR) without any contribution from coronal mass ejection-related material (interplanetary coronal mass ejections, ICMEs). These storms were generated by structures within CIRs located both before and/or after the stream interface that included persistently southward magnetic fields for intervals of several hours. We compare their geomagnetic effects with those of 159 CIRs observed during 1996 - 2005. The major storms form the extreme tail of a continuous distribution of CIR geoeffectiveness which peaks at Dst approx. -40 nT but is subject to a prominent seasonal variation of - 40 nT which is ordered by the spring and fall equinoxes and the solar wind magnetic field direction towards or away from the Sun. The O'Brien and McPherron [2000] equations, which estimate Dst by integrating the incident solar wind electric field and incorporating a ring current loss term, largely account for the variation in storm size. They tend to underestimate the size of the larger CIR-associated storms by Dst approx. 20 nT. This suggests that injection into the ring current may be more efficient than expected in such storms. Four of the nine major storms in 1996 - 2004 occurred during a period of less than three solar rotations in September - November, 2002, also the time of maximum mean IMF and solar magnetic field intensity during the current solar cycle. The maximum CIR-storm strength found in our sample of events, plus additional 23 probable CIR-associated Dst less than or equal to -100 nT storms in 1972 - 1995, is (Dst = -161 nT). This is consistent with the maximum storm strength (Dst approx. -180 nT) expected from the O'Brien and McPherron equations for the typical range of solar wind electric fields associated with CIRs. This suggests that CIRs alone are unlikely to generate geomagnetic storms that exceed these levels.

Richardson, I. G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) During 1996 - 2005

We present the results of an investigation of the sequence of events from the Sun to the Earth that ultimately led to the 88 major geomagnetic storms (defined by minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) that occurred during 1996 - 2005. The results are achieved through cooperative efforts that originated at the Living with a Star (LWS) Coordinated Data- Analysis Workshop (CDAW) held at George Mason University in March 2005. Based on careful examination of the complete array of solar and in-situ solar wind observations, we have identified and characterized, for each major geomagnetic storm, the overall solar-interplanetary (solar-IP) source type, the time, velocity and angular width of the source coronal mass ejection (CME), the type and heliographic location of the solar source region, the structure of the transient solar wind flow with the storm-driving component specified, the arrival time of shock/disturbance, and the start and ending times of the corresponding IP CME (ICME). The storm-driving component, which possesses a prolonged and enhanced southward magnetic field (B(sub s)) may be an ICME, the sheath of shocked plasma (SH) upstream of an ICME, a corotating interaction region (CIR), or a combination of these structures. We classify the Solar-IP sources into three broad types: (1) S-type, in which the storm is associated with a single ICME and a single CME at the Sun; (2) M-type, in which the storm is associated with a complex solar wind flow produced by multiple interacting ICMEs arising from multiple halo CMEs launched from the Sun in a short period; (3) C-type, in which the storm is associated with a CIR formed at the leading edge of a high speed stream originating from a solar coronal hole (CH). For the 88 major storms, the S-type, M-type and C-type events number 53 (60%): 24 (27%) and 11 (13%), respectively. For the 85 events for which the surface source regions could be investigated, 54 (63%) of the storms originated in solar active regions, 10 (12%) in quiet Sun regions associated with quiescent filaments or filament channels, and 11 (13%) were associated with coronal holes. Remarkably, 10 (12%) CME-driven events showed no sign of eruptive features on the surface (e.g., no flare, no coronal dimming, and no loop arcade, etc), even though all the available solar observation in a suitable time period were carefully examined. Thus, while it is generally true that a major geomagnetic storm is more likely to be driven by a front-side fast halo CME associated with a major flare, our study indicates a broad distribution of source properties. The implications of the results for space weather forecasting are briefly discussed.

Zhang, J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity as a Function of Time Relative to Corotating Interaction Regions

Corotating interaction regions during the declining phase of the solar cycle are the cause of recurrent geomagnetic storms and are responsible for the generation of high fluxes of relativistic electrons. These regions are produced by the collision of a high-speed stream of solar wind with a slow-speed stream. The interface between the two streams is easily identified with plasma and field data from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth. The properties of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are systematic functions of time relative to the stream interface. Consequently the coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere produces a predictable sequence of events. Because the streams persist for many solar rotations it should be possible to use terrestrial observations of past magnetic activity to predict future activity. Also the high-speed streams are produced by large unipolar magnetic regions on the Sun so that empirical models can be used to predict the velocity profile of a stream expected at the Earth. In either case knowledge of the statistical properties of the solar wind and geomagnetic activity as a function of time relative to a stream interface provides the basis for medium term forecasting of geomagnetic activity. In this report we use lists of stream interfaces identified in solar wind data during the years 1995 and 2004 to develop probability distribution functions for a variety of different variables as a function of time relative to the interface. The results are presented as temporal profiles of the quartiles of the cumulative probability distributions of these variables. We demonstrate that the storms produced by these interaction regions are generally very weak. Despite this the fluxes of relativistic electrons produced during those storms are the highest seen in the solar cycle. We attribute this to the specific sequence of events produced by the organization of the solar wind relative to the stream interfaces. We also show that there are large quantitative differences in various parameters between the two cycles.

McPherron, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

On the Relationship between Solar Wind Speed, Earthward-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Sunspot Cycle Using 12-Month Moving Averages

For 1996 .2006 (cycle 23), 12-month moving averages of the aa geomagnetic index strongly correlate (r = 0.92) with 12-month moving averages of solar wind speed, and 12-month moving averages of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (halo and partial halo events) strongly correlate (r = 0.87) with 12-month moving averages of sunspot number. In particular, the minimum (15.8, September/October 1997) and maximum (38.0, August 2003) values of the aa geomagnetic index occur simultaneously with the minimum (376 km/s) and maximum (547 km/s) solar wind speeds, both being strongly correlated with the following recurrent component (due to high-speed streams). The large peak of aa geomagnetic activity in cycle 23, the largest on record, spans the interval late 2002 to mid 2004 and is associated with a decreased number of halo and partial halo CMEs, whereas the smaller secondary peak of early 2005 seems to be associated with a slight rebound in the number of halo and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed aaM during the declining portion of cycle 23, RM for cycle 24 is predicted to be larger than average, being about 168+/-60 (the 90% prediction interval), whereas based on the expected aam for cycle 24 (greater than or equal to 14.6), RM for cycle 24 should measure greater than or equal to 118+/-30, yielding an overlap of about 128+/-20.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Irregularities at Sub-Auroral, Middle, and Low Latitudes in the Topside Ionosphere Observed During Geomagnetic Storms with the DEMETER and DMSP Satellites

Detailed observations of the plasma structure and irregularities that characterize the topside ionosphere at sub-auroral, middle, and low-latitudes are presented that were gathered with probes on the DEMETER and DMSP satellites during geomagnetic storms. Data from successive orbits reveal how the density structure and irregularities evolve with changes in the Dst. The observations reveal that precisely during the main phase of severe geomagnetic storms, increased ambient plasma densities and broad regions of irregularities are observed at 700 km, initially at storm commencement near the magnetic equator and then extending to mid- and sub-auroral latitudes within the approximately 8 hour period corresponding to the negative Dst excursions. Furthermore, intense, broadband electric and magnetic field irregularities are often observed at sub-auroral latitudes and are typically associated with the trough region and its poleward plasma density gradient. The observations provide a general framework showing how low, mid, and sub-auroral latitude plasma density structuring and associated irregularities respond to geomagnetic storms.

Pfaff, R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Geomagnetic Secular Variation Prediction with Thermal Heterogeneous Boundary Conditions

It has long been conjectured that thermal heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) affects the geodynamo substantially. The observed two pairs of steady and strong magnetic flux lobes near the Polar Regions and the low secular variation in the Pacific over the past 400 years (and perhaps longer) are likely the consequences of this CMB thermal heterogeneity. There are several studies on the impact of the thermal heterogeneity with numerical geodynamo simulations. However, direct correlation between the numerical results and the observations is found very difficult, except qualitative comparisons of certain features in the radial component of the magnetic field at the CMB. This makes it difficult to assess accurately the impact of thermal heterogeneity on the geodynamo and the geomagnetic secular variation. We revisit this problem with our MoSST_DAS system in which geomagnetic data are assimilated with our geodynamo model to predict geomagnetic secular variations. In this study, we implement a heterogeneous heat flux across the CMB that is chosen based on the seismic tomography of the lowermost mantle. The amplitude of the heat flux (relative to the mean heat flux across the CMB) varies in the simulation. With these assimilation studies, we will examine the influences of the heterogeneity on the forecast accuracies, e.g. the accuracies as functions of the heterogeneity amplitude. With these, we could be able to assess the model errors to the true core state, and thus the thermal heterogeneity in geodynamo modeling.

Kuang, Weijia↗
NASA NTRS1961

Solar Influences on Geomagnetic and Related Phenomena

A discussion of the geomagnetic effects of streams of electromagnetic and particular radiation from the sun. The interplay of forces between the geomagnetic field and solar streams is outlined; and the theoretical relationship between these, the solar storms, the trapped Van Allen radiations, the polar aurora, and geomagnetic field distortion are presented.

Vestine, E. H.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Impact of Archeomagnetic Field Model Data on Modern Era Geomagnetic Forecasts

A series of geomagnetic data assimilation experiments have been carried out to demonstrate the impact of assimilating archeomagnetic data via the CALS3k.4 geomagnetic field model from the period between 10 and 1590 CE. The assimilation continues with the gufm1 model from 1590 to 1990 and CM4 model from 1990 to 2000 as observations, and comparisons between these models and the geomagnetic forecasts are used to determine an optimal maximum degree for the archeomagnetic observations, and to independently estimate errors for these observations. These are compared with an assimilation experiment that uses the uncertainties provided with CALS3k.4. Optimal 20 year forecasts in 1990 are found when the Gauss coefficients up to degree 3 are assimilated. In addition we demonstrate how a forecast and observation bias correction scheme could be used to reduce bias in modern era forecasts. Initial experiments show that this approach can reduce modern era forecast biases by as much as 50 percent.

Tangborn, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2018

Determining the Mode, Frequency, and Azimuthal Wave Number of ULF Waves During a HSS and Moderate Geomagnetic Storm

Ultralow frequency (ULF) waves play a fundamental role in the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere and outer radiation belt during geomagnetic storms. Broadband ULF wave power can transport energetic electrons via radial diffusion, and discrete ULF wave power can energize electrons through a resonant interaction. Using observations from the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission, we characterize the evolution of ULF waves during a highspeed solar wind stream (HSS) and moderate geomagnetic storm while there is an enhancement of the outer radiation belt. The Automated Flare Inference of Oscillations code is used to distinguish discrete ULF wave power from broadband wave power during the HSS. During periods of discrete wave power and utilizing the close separation of the Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft, we estimate the toroidal mode ULF azimuthal wave number throughout the geomagnetic storm. We concentrate on the toroidal mode as the HSS compresses the dayside magnetosphere resulting in an asymmetric magnetic field topology where toroidal mode waves can interact with energetic electrons. Analysis of the mode structure and wave numbers demonstrates that the generation of the observed ULF waves is a combination of externally driven waves, via the KelvinHelmholtz instability, and internally driven waves, via unstable ion distributions. Further analysis of the periods and toroidal azimuthal wave numbers suggests that these waves can couple with the core electron radiation belt population via the drift resonance during the storm. The azimuthal wave number and structure of ULF wave power (broadband or discrete) have important implications for the inner magnetospheric and radiation belt dynamics.

Murphy, Kyle R.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Framework for Understanding and Quantifying the Loss and Acceleration of Relativistic Electrons in the Outer Radiation Belt During Geomagnetic Storms

We present detailed analysis of the global relativistic electron dynamics as measured by total radiation belt content (RBC) during coronal mass ejection (CME) and corotating interaction region (CIR)-driven geomagnetic storms. Recent work has demonstrated that the response of the outer radiation belt is consistent and repeatable during geomagnetic storms. Here we build on this work to show that radiation belt dynamics can be divided into two sequential phases, which have different solar wind dependencies and which when analyzed separately reveal that the radiation belt responds more predictably than if the overall storm response is analyzed as a whole. In terms of RBC, in every storm we analyzed, a phase dominated by loss is followed by a phase dominated by acceleration. Analysis of the RBC during each of these phases demonstrates that they both respond coherently to solar wind and magnetospheric driving. However, the response is independent of whether the storm response is associated with either a CME or CIR. Our analysis shows that during the initial phase, radiation belt loss is organized by the location of the magnetopause and the strength of Dst and ultralow frequency wave power. During the second phase, radiation belt enhancements are well organized by the amplitude of ultralow frequency waves, the auroral electroject index, and solar wind energy input. Overall, our results demonstrate that storm time dynamics of the RBC is repeatable and well characterized by solar wind and geomagnetic driving, albeit with different dependencies during the two phases of a storm.

Kyle R. Murphy↗
NASA NTRS2021

Geomagnetic Secular Variation Forecast using the NASA GEMS Ensemble Kalman filter: A Candidate SV Model for IGRF‑13

We have produced a 5-year mean secular variation (SV ) of the geomagnetic field for the period 2020–2025. We use the NASA Geomagnetic Ensemble Modeling System (GEMS), which consists of the NASA Goddard geodynamo model and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with 400 ensemble members. Geomagnetic field models are used as observations for the assimilation, including gufm1 (1590–1960), CM4 (1961–2000) and CM6 (2001–2019). The forecast involves a bias correction scheme that assumes that the model bias changes on timescales much longer than the forecast period, so that they can be removed by successive forecast series. The algorithm was validated on the time period 2010-2015 by comparing with CM6 before being applied to the 2020–2025 time period. This forecast has been sub-mitted as a candidate predictive model of IGRF-13 for the period 2020–2025.

Andrew Tangborn↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Testbed for Geomagnetic Data Assimilation

Geomagnetic data assimilation merges past and present-day observations of the Earth’s mag-netic field with numerical geodynamo models and the results are used to initialize forecasts.We present a new ‘proxy model’ that can be used to test, or rapidly prototype, numerical tech-niques for geomagnetic data assimilation. The basic idea for constructing a proxy is to capturethe conceptual difficulties one encounters when assimilating observations into high-resolution,3-D geodynamo simulations, but at a much lower computational cost. The framework of usingproxy models as ‘gate-keepers’ for numerical methods that could/should be considered formore extensive testing on operational models has proven useful in numerical weather predic-tion, where advances in data assimilation and, hence, improved forecast skill, are at least inpart enabled by the common use of a wide range of proxy models. We also present a largeset of systematic data assimilation experiments with the proxy to reveal the importance oflocalization and inflation in geomagnetic data assimilation.

K Gwirtz↗
NASA NTRS2023

Occurrence of Large Geomagnetically Induced Currents Within the EPRI SUNBURST Monitoring Network

Space weather, a natural hazard, can adversely impact human technological assets. High-voltage electric power transmission grids constitute one of the most critical technological systems vulnerable to space weather driven geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). One of the major challenges pertaining to the study of GICs over the continental United States has been the availability of GIC measurements, which are critical for validation of geoelectric field and power flow models, for example. In this study, we analyze GIC measurements collected at 17 Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) SUNBURST transformer locations across the United States for which a GIC value of 10 A or greater was recorded. This data set includes 52 individual geomagnetic storms with Kp index 6 and above during the period from 2010 to 2021. The analysis confirms that there is a good correlation between the number of geomagnetic storms per year and the number of recorded GIC events. Our results also show that about 76% of the top 17 GIC events are associated with the storm main phase, while only 24% are attributed to storm sudden commencements. In addition, it is shown, for the first time, that mid-latitude positive bays can cause large GICs over the continental United States. Finally, this study shows that the largest measured GIC event in the data set was associated with a localized intense dB/dt structure, which could be attributed to substorm activity.

Chigomezyo M. Ngwira↗