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At least 145 records · Page 8

Recent Amplified Global Gross Primary Productivity Due to Temperature Increase is Offset by Reduced Productivity Due to Water Constraints

Satellite remote sensing observationsshow an increased greenness trend over land in recent decades. Whilegreennessobservationscanindicateincreased productivity, estimation of total annual productivity is highly dependent on vegetation response to climate and environmental conditions. Models have been struggling to determinehow much carbon is taken up by plants as a result of increased atmospheric CO2fertilization. Current remote sensing light use efficiency (LUE) models contain considerable uncertainty due to the lack of spatial and temporal variability in maximum LUE parameter and climate sensitivity defined for global plantfunctional types (PFTs). We usedthe optimum LUE (LUEopt) previously derived fromtheglobal FLUXNET network to improve estimation of global gross primary productivity (GPP)for the period 1982–2016. Our results indicateincreasing GPP in northern latitudesowing to reduced cold temperature constraintson plant growth, thereby suggesting increasing negative carbon-climate feedbackin high latitudes. In the tropics, by contrast, our results indicate an emerging positive climate feedback,mainly due to increasing atmospheric vapor pressure deficit(VPD).Further pervasive VPD increase is likely to continue to reduce global GPPand amplify carbon emissions.

Climate change↗

Using LIDAR and Quickbird Data to Model Plant Production and Quantify Uncertainties Associated with Wetland Detection and Land Cover Generalizations

Spatiotemporal data from satellite remote sensing and surface meteorology networks have made it possible to continuously monitor global plant production, and to identify global trends associated with land cover/use and climate change. Gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are routinely derived from the MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard satellites Terra and Aqua, and estimates generally agree with independent measurements at validation sites across the globe. However, the accuracy of GPP and NPP estimates in some regions may be limited by the quality of model input variables and heterogeneity at fine spatial scales. We developed new methods for deriving model inputs (i.e., land cover, leaf area, and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plant canopies) from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and Quickbird multispectral data at resolutions ranging from about 30 m to 1 km. In addition, LiDAR-derived biomass was used as a means for computing carbon-use efficiency. Spatial variables were used with temporal data from ground-based monitoring stations to compute a six-year GPP and NPP time series for a 3600 ha study site in the Great Lakes region of North America. Model results compared favorably with independent observations from a 400 m flux tower and a process-based ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC), but only after removing vapor pressure deficit as a constraint on photosynthesis from the MODIS global algorithm. Fine resolution inputs captured more of the spatial variability, but estimates were similar to coarse-resolution data when integrated across the entire vegetation structure, composition, and conversion efficiencies were similar to upland plant communities. Plant productivity estimates were noticeably improved using LiDAR-derived variables, while uncertainties associated with land cover generalizations and wetlands in this largely forested landscape were considered less important.

Cook, Bruce D.↗

Preliminary design of composite wings for buckling, strength and displacement constraints

An unstiffened panel buckling constraint for balanced, symmetric laminated composites is included on the global design level in a mathematical programming structural optimization procedure for designing wing structures. Constraints are introduced by penalty functions, and Newton's method based on approximate second derivatives of the penalty terms is used as the search algorithm to obtain minimum-mass designs. Constraint approximations used during the optimization process contribute to the computational efficiency of the procedure. A criterion is developed that identifies the appropriate conservative form of the constraint approximations that are used with the optimization procedure. Minimum-mass design results are obtained for a multispar high-aspect-ratio wing subjected to material strength, minimum-gage, displacement, panel buckling and twist constraints. The material systems considered for the examples are all graphite-epoxy, graphite-epoxy with boron-epoxy spar caps, and all aluminum. The composite material designs are shown to have an advantage over the aluminum designs since they can often satisfy additional constraints with only small mass increases.

Starnes, J. H., Jr.↗

Walking the Filament of Feasibility: Global Optimization of Highly-Constrained, Multi-Modal Interplanetary Trajectories Using a Novel Stochastic Search Technique

Interplanetary trajectory optimization problems are highly complex and are characterized by a large number of decision variables and equality and inequality constraints as well as many locally optimal solutions. Stochastic global search techniques, coupled with a large-scale NLP solver, have been shown to solve such problems but are inadequately robust when the problem constraints become very complex. In this work, we present a novel search algorithm that takes advantage of the fact that equality constraints effectively collapse the solution space to lower dimensionality. This new approach walks the filament'' of feasibility to efficiently find the global optimal solution.

Englander, Arnold C.↗

Walking the Filament of Feasibility: Global Optimization of Highly-Constrained, Multi-Modal Interplanetary Trajectories Using a Novel Stochastic Search Technique

Interplanetary trajectory optimization problems are highly complex and are characterized by a large number of decision variables and equality and inequality constraints as well as many locally optimal solutions. Stochastic global search techniques, coupled with a large-scale NLP solver, have been shown to solve such problems but are inadequately robust when the problem constraints become very complex. In this work, we present a novel search algorithm that takes advantage of the fact that equality constraints effectively collapse the solution space to lower dimensionality. This new approach walks the filament'' of feasibility to efficiently find the global optimal solution.

Englander, Arnold C.↗

Towards an A-train Aerosol Assimilation System: Assimilation of MODIS Aerosol Optical Thickness Retrievals into a Global Aerosol Transport and Radiation Model

To understand the role of atmospheric aerosols in Earth's climate system we ideally require a global, three-dimensional, and temporally continuous system of measurements. The view of aerosols provided by a single polar-orbiting satellite instrument (e.g., MODIS), while providing the greatest spatial coverage of any measurement system available, can offer only a single relevant observation per day of a particular location. Furthermore, the quantitative interpretation of those observations is subject to considerable uncertainty because of we do not know the aerosol optical properties or vertical profiles well enough. Ground-based and in situ measurements can provide missing detail about aerosol vertical and optical properties, but lack the spatial (and sometimes temporal) coverage desired. Chemical transport models treating the aerosol lifecycle complement this picture by providing three-dimensional, global, and continuous aerosol fields, but suffer from poor constraints on their initial conditions (e.g., the aerosol source, sink, and transformation mechanisms). Here we present a global, three- dimensional aerosol transport model and assimilation system. The model assimilates the MODIS aerosol optical thickness product to constrain its aerosol distributions and burdens. We provide an analysis of the model aerosol distributions as constrained by ground-based sun photometer measurements and aerosol products from other satellite measurements.

Colarco, P.↗

UAS Applications for Hurricane Science, Hurrican and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3)

Earth Science Industry Update: UAS Applications for Hurricane Science Unmanned systems can significantly transform hurricane observations and monitoring, improving our knowledge about and ability to forecast storm formation, track, and intensity change. NASA's use of the Global Hawk has demonstrated the scientific value of this platform and provided a proof-of-concept for operational applications. However, science flight operations face several challenges and constraints. In this session, learn about how NASA adapted the Global Hawk to do science; How NASA conducts its hurricane missions, and some of the challenges and constraints they face; Science results from NASA's recent hurricane field campaigns using the Global Hawk. How assimilation of dropsonde and radar data into weather prediction models may improve forecast accuracy; Other Earth science problems that could be addressed with Global Hawks.

Hurricane Science↗

A model for the motion of the Philippine Sea plate consistent with NUVEL-1 and geological data

We investigate angular velocity vectors of the Philippine Sea (PH) plate relative to the adjacent major plates, Eurasia (EU) and Pacific (PA), and the smaller Caroline (CR) plate. Earthquake slip vector data along the Philippine Sea plate are inverted, subject to the constraint that EU-PA motion equals that predicted by the global relative plate model NUVEL-1. The resulting solution fails to satisfy geological constraints along the Caroline-Pacific boundary: convergence along the Mussau Trench and divergence along the Sorol Trough. We then seek solutions satisfying both the CR-PA boundary conditions and the Philippine Sea slip vector data, by adjusting the PA-PH and EU-PH best fitting poles within their error ellipses. We also consider northern Honshu to be part of the North American plate and impose the constraint that the Philippine Sea plate subducts beneath northern Honshu along the Sagmi Trough in a NNW-NW direction. Of the solutions satisfying these conditions, we select the best EU-PH as 48.2 deg N, 157.0 deg E, 1.09 deg/my, corresponding to a pole far from Japan and south of Kamchatka, and PA-PH, 1.2 deg N, 134.2 deg E, 1.00 deg/my. Predicted NA-PH and EU-PH convergence rates in central Honshu are consistent with estimated seismic slip rates. Previous estimates of the EU-PH pole close to central Honshu are inconsistent with extension within the Bonin backarc implied by earthquake slip vectors and NNW-NW convergence of the Bonin forearc at the Sagami Trough.

Seno, Tetsuzo↗

The Lunar Crust: Global Structure and Signature of Major Basins

New lunar gravity and topography data from the Clementine Mission provide a global Bouguer anomaly map corrected for the gravitational attraction of mare fill in mascon basins. Most of the gravity signal remaining after corrections for the attraction of topography and mare fill can be attributed to variations in depth to the lunar Moho and therefore crustal thickness. The large range of global crustal thickness (approx. 20-120 km) is indicative of major spatial variations in melting of the lunar exterior and/or significant impact-related redistribution. The 6l-km average crustal thickness, constrained by a depth-to-Moho measured during the Apollo 12 and 14 missions, is preferentially distributed toward the farside, accounting for much of the offset in center-of-figure from the center-of-mass. While the average farside thickness is 12 km greater than the nearside, the distribution is nonuniform, with dramatic thinning beneath the farside, South Pole-Aitken basin. With the global crustal thickness map as a constraint, regional inversions of gravity and topography resolve the crustal structure of major mascon basins to half wavelengths of 150 km. In order to yield crustal thickness maps with the maximum horizontal resolution permitted by the data, the downward continuation of the Bouguer gravity is stabilized by a three- dimensional, minimum-slope and curvature algorithm. Both mare and non-mare basins are characterized by a central upwarped moho that is surrounded by rings of thickened crust lying mainly within the basin rims. The inferred relief at this density interface suggests a deep structural component to the surficial features of multiring lunar impact basins. For large (greater than 300 km diameter) basins, moho relief appears uncorrelated with diameter, but is negatively correlated with basin age. In several cases, it appears that the multiring structures were out of isostatic equilibrium prior to mare emplacement, suggesting that the lithosphere was strong enough to maintain their state of stress to the present.

Neumann, Gregory A.↗

An algorithm for converting a virtual-bond chain into a complete polypeptide backbone chain

A systematic analysis is presented of the algorithm for converting a virtual-bond chain, defined by the coordinates of the alpha-carbons of a given protein, into a complete polypeptide backbone. An alternative algorithm, based upon the same set of geometric parameters used in the Purisima-Scheraga algorithm but with a different "linkage map" of the algorithmic procedures, is proposed. The global virtual-bond chain geometric constraints are more easily separable from the loal peptide geometric and energetic constraints derived from, for example, the Ramachandran criterion, within the framework of this approach.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone‐depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone‐depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite‐based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total‐column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of −0.05 to 0.13 W m−2. Our best estimate (0.04 W m−2) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m−2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.

ozone depletion↗

Contribution of the World's Main Dust Source Regions to the Global Cycle of Desert Dust

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth's atmosphere, the relative contributions of the world's major source regions to the global dust cycle remain poorly constrained. This problem hinders accounting for the potentially large impact of regional differences in dust properties on clouds, the Earth's energy balance, and terrestrial and marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, we constrain the contribution of each of the world's main dust source regions to the global dust cycle. We use an analytical framework that integrates an ensemble of global aerosol model simulations with observationally informed constraints on the dust size distribution, extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD). We obtain a dataset that constrains the relative contribution of nine major source regions to size-resolved dust emission, atmospheric loading, DAOD, concentration, and deposition flux. We find that the 22–29 Tg (1 standard error range) global loading of dust with a geometric diameter up to 20 µm is partitioned as follows: North African source regions contribute ∼ 50 % (11–15 Tg), Asian source regions contribute ∼ 40 % (8–13 Tg), and North American and Southern Hemisphere regions contribute ∼ 10 % (1.8–3.2 Tg). These results suggest that current models on average overestimate the contribution of North African sources to atmospheric dust loading at ∼ 65 %, while underestimating the contribution of Asian dust at ∼ 30 %. Our results further show that each source region's dust loading peaks in local spring and summer, which is partially driven by increased dust lifetime in those seasons. We also quantify the dust deposition flux to the Amazon rainforest to be ∼ 10 Tg yr−1, which is a factor of 2–3 less than inferred from satellite data by previous work that likely overestimated dust deposition by underestimating the dust mass extinction efficiency. The data obtained in this paper can be used to obtain improved constraints on dust impacts on clouds, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and other parts of the Earth system.

Dust↗

Improvement of Automated POST Case Success Rate Using Support Vector Machines

During early conceptual design of complex systems, concept down selection can have a large impact upon program life-cycle cost. Therefore, any concepts selected during early design will inherently commit program costs and affect the overall probability of program success. For this reason it is important to consider as large a design space as possible in order to better inform the down selection process. For conceptual design of launch vehicles, trajectory analysis and optimization often presents the largest obstacle to evaluating large trade spaces. This is due to the sensitivity of the trajectory discipline to changes in all other aspects of the vehicle design. Small deltas in the performance of other subsystems can result in relatively large fluctuations in the ascent trajectory because the solution space is non-linear and multi-modal [1]. In order to help capture large design spaces for new launch vehicles, the authors have performed previous work seeking to automate the execution of the industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST). This work initially focused on implementation of analyst heuristics to enable closure of cases in an automated fashion, with the goal of applying the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to enable near instantaneous throughput of vehicle cases [2]. Additional work was then completed to improve the DOE process by utilizing a graph theory based approach to connect similar design points [3]. The conclusion of the previous work illustrated the utility of the graph theory approach for completing a DOE through POST. However, this approach was still dependent upon the use of random repetitions to generate seed points for the graph. As noted in [3], only 8% of these random repetitions resulted in converged trajectories. This ultimately affects the ability of the random reps method to confidently approach the global optima for a given vehicle case in a reasonable amount of time. With only an 8% pass rate, tens or hundreds of thousands of reps may be needed to be confident that the best repetition is at least close to the global optima. However, typical design study time constraints require that fewer repetitions be attempted, sometimes resulting in seed points that have only a handful of successful completions. If a small number of successful repetitions are used to generate a seed point, the graph method may inherit some inaccuracies as it chains DOE cases from the non-global-optimal seed points. This creates inherent noise in the graph data, which can limit the accuracy of the resulting surrogate models. For this reason, the goal of this work is to improve the seed point generation method and ultimately the accuracy of the resulting POST surrogate model. The work focuses on increasing the case pass rate for seed point generation.

Zwack, Matthew R.↗

Oxidation state of the Earth's upper mantle during the last 3800 million years: Implications for the origin of life

A popular, as well as scientifically rigorous, scenario for the origin of life on Earth involves the production of organic molecules by interaction of lightning (or other forms of energy) with a chemically reducing atmosphere in the early history of Earth. Experiments since the 1950's have convincingly demonstrated that the yield of organic molecules is high when the atmosphere contains molecular hydrogen, methane, ammonia, and water vapor. Additional work has also shown that such a highly reducing atmosphere might not, however, have been sufficiently long-lived in the presence of intense solar ultraviolet radiation for life to have formed from it. One way of maintaining such an atmosphere would be to have a continual replenishment of the reduced gases by prolonged volcanic outgassing from a reducing of Earth's interior. The length of time that this replenishment might need to continue is in part constrained by the flux of asteroids onto the Earth's surface containing sufficient energy to destroy most, if not all, life that had developed up to that point in time. If a reducing atmosphere is a key ingredient for the origin of life on Earth, the time of the last environmental sterilization due to large impacts would be an important constraint. In a deep marine setting (e.g., hydrothermal vent), the last global sterilization might have occurred at 4200-4000 Ma. On the Earth's surface, the last global sterilization event might have occurred at 4000-3700 Ma. If these are meaningful constraints, how likely is it that a reducing atmosphere could have survived on the Earth until about 3800 Ma ago? Due to the importance of replenishing this atmosphere with reducing components by volcanic outgassing from the mantle, geochemical information on the history of the mantle's oxidation state would be useful for addressing this question. Geochemical and experimental data discussed in this abstract suggest that extrusive mafic volcanics derived from the upper mantle have had oxidation states near the fayalite-magnetite quartz buffer throughout the last 3800 Ma. At magmatic temperatures, the gases released from volcanoes having this oxidation state would have been, as they are today, composed dominantly of carbon dioxide and water vapor, and would not contain the ingredients for maintaining a reducing atmosphere. Consequently, geochemical data do not favor the survival of a reducing atmosphere until about 3800 Ma. Alternative venues and pathways for the origin of life need to be investigated (e.g., hydrothermal vents along oceanic ridges).

Delano, J. W.↗

Understanding Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing - How Satellites Fit In

The aerosol data products from the NASA Earth Observing System's MISR and MODIS instruments provide significant advances in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD) mapping, aerosol type measurement, and source plume characterization from space. Although these products have been and are being used for many applications, ranging from regional air quality assessment, to aerosol air mass type identification and evolution, to aerosol injection height and aerosol transport model validation, uncertainties still limit the quantitative constraints these satellite data place on global-scale direct aerosol radiative forcing. Some further refinement of the current aerosol products is possible, but a major advance in this area seems to require a different paradigm, involving the integration of satellite and suborbital data with models. This presentation will briefly summarize where we stand, and what incremental advances we can expect, with the current aerosol products, and will then elaborate on some initial steps aimed at the necessary integration of data from multiple sources and models.

Kahn, R. A.↗

Analysis of stratospheric ozone, temperature, and minor constituent data

The objective of this research is to use available satellite measurements of temperature and constituent concentrations to test the conceptual picture of stratospheric chemistry and transport. This was originally broken down into two sub-goals: first, to use the constituent data to search for critical tests of our understanding of stratospheric chemistry and second, to examine constituent transport processes emphasizing interactions with chemistry on various time scales. A third important goal which has evolved is to use the available solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data from Nimbus 7 to describe the morphology of recent changes in Antarctic and global ozone with emphasis on searching for constraints to theories. The major effort now being pursued relative to the two original goals is our effort as a theoretical team for the Arctic Airborne Stratospheric Expedition (AASE). Our effort for the AASE is based on the 3D transport and chemistry model at Goddard. Our goal is to use this model to place the results from the mission data in a regional and global context. Specifically, we set out to make model runs starting in late December and running through March of 1989, both with and without heterogeneous chemistry. The transport is to be carried out using dynamical fields from a 4D data assimilation model being developed under separate funding from this task. We have successfully carried out a series of single constituent transport experiments. One of the things demonstrated by these runs was the difficulty in obtaining observed low N2O abundances in the vortex without simultaneously obtaining very high ozone values. Because the runs start in late December, this difficulty arises in the attempt to define consistent initial conditions for the 3D model. To accomplish a consistent set of initial conditions, we are using the 2D photochemistry-transport model of Jackman and Douglass and mapping in potential temperature, potential vorticity space as developed by Schoeberl and coworkers.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Orbit design and optimization based on global telecommunication performance metrics

The orbit selection of telecommunications orbiters is one of the critical design processes and should be guided by global telecom performance metrics and mission-specific constraints. In order to aid the orbit selection, we have coupled the Telecom Orbit Analysis and Simulation Tool (TOAST) with genetic optimization algorithms. As a demonstration, we have applied the developed tool to select an optimal orbit for general Mars telecommunications orbiters with the constraint of being a frozen orbit. While a typical optimization goal is to minimize tele-communications down time, several relevant performance metrics are examined: 1) area-weighted average gap time, 2) global maximum of local maximum gap time, 3) global maximum of local minimum gap time. Optimal solutions are found with each of the metrics. Common and different features among the optimal solutions as well as the advantage and disadvantage of each metric are presented. The optimal solutions are compared with several candidate orbits that were considered during the development of Mars Telecommunications Orbiter.

genetic algorithms↗