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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating bloom potential of the green-tide forming alga Ulva ohnoi under ocean acidification and warming

Herein we discuss the occurrence of green-tides, whose bloom potential may be increased by various human activities and biogeochemical process, results in enormous economic losses and ecosystem collapse. In this study, we investigated the ecophysiology of the subtropical green-tide forming alga, Ulva ohnoi complex (hereafter: U. ohnoi), under simulated future ocean conditions in order to predict its bloom potential using photosynthesis and growth measurements, and stable isotope analyses. Our mesocosm system included four experimental conditions that simulated the individual and combined effects of elevated CO 2 and temperature, namely control (450 μatm CO 2 & 20 °C), acidification (900 μatm CO 2 & 20 °C), warming (450 μatm CO 2 & 25 °C), and greenhouse (900 μatm CO 2 & 25 °C). Photosynthetic electron transport rates (rETR) increased significantly under acidification conditions, but net photosynthesis and growth were not affected. In contrast, rETR, net photosynthesis, and growth all decreased significantly under elevated temperature conditions (i.e. both warming and greenhouse). These results represent the imbalance of energy metabolism between electron transport and O 2 production that may be expected under ocean acidification conditions. This imbalance appears to be related to carbon and nitrogen assimilation by U. ohnoi. In particular, 13 C and 15 N discrimination data suggest U. ohnoi prefers CO 2 and NH 4 + over HCO 3 - and NO 3 - as sources of carbon and nitrogen, respectively, and this results in increased N content in the thallus under ocean acidification conditions. Together, our results suggest a trade-off in which the bloom potential of U. ohnoi could increase under ocean acidification due to greater N accumulation and through the saving of energy during carbon and nitrogen metabolism, but that elevated temperatures could decrease U. ohnoi's bloom potential through a decrease in photosynthesis and growth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Green solvent-processable poly(3-hexylthiophene) derivative maintains high hole mobility in diodes

The development of environmentally sustainable fabrication methods for organic solar cells (OSCs) is critical to enable their large-scale adoption. Conventional solution-processed OSCs often rely on halogenated, toxic solvents that pose health and environmental risks, limiting their scalability. This is because π-conjugated polymers tend to have a low solubility in non-halogenated solvents. A common strategy to enhance solubility in alternative solvents is through the incorporation of polar solubilizing groups, often on every repeat unit of at least one monomer. However, too many polar side chains tend to disrupt favorable morphology and decrease charge transport properties. In this study, we demonstrate that a minimal degree of side chain functionalization can improve green solvent processability while preserving electrical performance. We tested this hypothesis using our previously reported random copolymer derivative of poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) where ∼10 mol% of the side chains are 6-pentanoatehexyl side chains. We find that this low-level functionalization significantly broadens the solvents that can be used to process P3HT to less toxic solvents such as o-xylene and anisole. Furthermore, the copolymer processed from greener solvents showed high hole mobilities (∼10⁻ 3 cm 2 /Vs by the Space-Charge Limiting Current method in diodes), comparable to P3HT films cast from toxic chloroform. These findings suggest that minimal side-chain modification is a viable strategy for expanding green solvent compatibility while preserving electrical performance, paving the way toward more sustainable organic semiconductor designs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monte Carlo Explicitly Correlated Second-Order Many-Body Green’s Function Calculations of Semiconductor Band Gaps

A systematically converging series of ab initio, post-density-functional, size-consistent, electron-correlated approximations is desired for predictive computing of felectronic band structures of insulating, semiconducting, and metallic solids. A series that meets all of these desiderata (except the applicability to metals) is ab initio many-body Green's function theory based on Gaussian-type-orbital (GTO) basis sets. Here, its leading-order approximation, the second-order Green's function (GF2) method in the diagonal and frequency-independent approximations with the aug-cc-pVDZ basis set, is applied to the fundamental band gaps of three semiconductors (diamond, silicon, and silicon carbide in the zincblende structure) using cluster models. Corrections are made to the basis-set-incompleteness errors by the explicit-correlation (F12) ansatz (GF2-F12) for the valence band edges. The crystals are modeled as surface-passivated clusters of increasing sizes, whose wave functions are expanded by up to 2709 GTO basis functions. Immense computational costs of these calculations are overcome by the highly scalable stochastic algorithm of the Monte Carlo GF2-F12 method, whose operation cost per state increases only as a cubic power of system size, which has a tiny memory footprint and easily achieves near-perfect parallel efficiency on thousands of CPUs or on hundreds of GPUs. The correlated, F12-corrected highest-occupied and lowest-unoccupied molecular-orbital energy (HOMO-LUMO) gap is 5.78 ± 0.07 eV for C 87 H 76 as compared with the experimental value of the fundamental (indirect) band gap of bulk diamond at 5.48 eV. The correlated, F12-corrected HOMO-LUMO gaps for Si 75 H 76 and Si 32 C 43 H 76 are 2.56 ± 0.15 eV and 3.50 ± 0.12 eV, respectively, which are expected to decrease further with increasing cluster sizes. As a result, the experimental fundamental (indirect) band gaps of bulk silicon and silicon carbide are 1.17 eV and 2.42 eV, respectively.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Aberrant light sensing and motility in the green alga Chlamydomonas priscuii from the ice-covered Antarctic Lake Bonney

The Antarctic green alga Chlamydomonas priscuii is an obligate psychrophile and an emerging model for photosynthetic adaptation to extreme conditions. Endemic to the ice-covered Lake Bonney, this alga thrives at highly unusual light conditions characterized by very low light irradiance (<15 μmol m -2 s -1 ), a narrow wavelength spectrum enriched in blue light, and an extreme photoperiod. Genome sequencing of C. priscuii exposed an unusually large genome, with hundreds of highly similar gene duplicates and expanded gene families, some of which could be aiding its survival in extreme conditions. In contrast to the described expansion in the genetic repertoire in C. priscuii, here we suggest that the gene family encoding for photoreceptors is reduced when compared to related green algae. This alga also possesses a very small eyespot and exhibits an aberrant phototactic response, compared to the model Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. We also investigated the genome and behavior of the closely related psychrophilic alga Chlamydomonas sp. ICE-MDV, that is found throughout the photic zone of Lake Bonney and is naturally exposed to higher light levels. Our analyses revealed a photoreceptor gene family and a robust phototactic response similar to those in the model Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. These results suggest that the aberrant phototactic response in C. priscuii is a result of life under extreme shading rather than a common feature of all psychrophilic algae. We discuss the implications of these results on the evolution and survival of shade adapted polar algae.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Green’s function methods for excited states and x-ray spectra of functional materials

Many interesting properties of functional materials, such as dynamic response and thermodynamic behavior, depend on their excited state properties. These functional properties are often related to excitations in the system, such as phonons and plasmons, which lead to inelastic losses, lifetime, and other dynamic effects. The excitations are pure many-body correlation effects that are missing from independent particle theories. They are revealed in x-ray spectra such as photoemission and absorption, where they show up as satellites beyond the quasi-particle approximation. Our main focus in this work is the use of Green's function methods to describe these effects. In particular, we discuss how the cumulant Green's function provides a unified treatment of such dynamic correlation effects in many contexts. Besides a robust theoretical framework, these methods also yield widely applicable tools for practical calculations of many functional properties of materials. Furthermore, this methodology is illustrated with a number of applications ranging from optical and x-ray spectra to thermodynamic properties, and dynamic response. Some recent extensions for more correlated systems are also briefly discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating subsystem embedding subalgebras and coupled cluster Green’s function: a theoretical foundation for quantum embedding in excitation manifold

Here, in this study, we introduce a novel approach to coupled-cluster Green's function (CCGF) embedding by seamlessly integrating conventional CCGF theory with the state-of-the-art sub-system embedding sub-algebras coupled cluster (SES-CC) formalism. This integration focuses primarily on delineating the characteristics of the sub-system and the corresponding segments of the Green's function, defined explicitly by active orbitals. Crucially, our work involves the adaptation of the SES-CC paradigm, addressing the left eigenvalue problem through a distinct form of Hamiltonian similarity transformation. This advancement not only facilitates a comprehensive representation of the interaction between the embedded sub-system and its surrounding environment but also paves the way for the quantum mechanical description of multiple embedded domains, particularly by employing the emergent quantum flow algorithms. Our theoretical underpinnings further set the stage for a generalization to multiple embedded sub-systems. This expansion holds significant promise for the exploration and application of non-equilibrium quantum systems, enhancing the understanding of system–environment interactions. In doing so, the research underscores the potential of SES-CC embedding within the realm of quantum computations and multi-scale simulations, promising a good balance between accuracy and computational efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unified wavefront singularity characterization of three-dimensional elastodynamic time-domain half-space Green's function under impulsive boundary and internal loads

Founded on a novel analytical formulation that led to a rigorous yet compact path-integral representation of the time-domain elastodynamic half-space Green's function, a unified analysis of the possible occurrence of different singular wavefront behaviour in the response under arbitrary impulsive internal or surface point loads at arbitrary source-receiver locations is presented. With the decomposition of the general solution into distinct initiating and reflected wave group integrals that share a common factored format and simple contour definitions, the mathematical framework is shown to allow a straightforward identification of the specific conditions and the particular wave groups that are responsible for the singular wavefront phenomena without resorting to advanced analytic function theories or asymptotic methods. Analytic characterizations of the nature, strength and direction of all intrinsic singular wavefront behaviours of the three-dimensional Green's function in three canonical cases of source-receiver configurations are given in a dual integral-closed form format to facilitate their theoretical understanding as well as computational applications. Graphical illustrations of their variation with the source-receiver configuration and the medium's Poisson's ratio together with relevant comparison and clarifications of some classical treatments are included.

Green’s functions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerically exact generalized Green's function cluster expansions for electron-phonon problems

We generalize the family of approximate momentum average methods to formulate a numerically exact, convergent hierarchy of equations whose solution provides an efficient algorithm to compute the Green's function of a particle dressed by bosons suitable in the entire parameter regime. We use this approach to extract ground-state properties and spectral functions. Our approximation-free framework, dubbed the generalized Green's function cluster expansion (GGCE), allows access to exact numerical results in the extreme adiabatic limit, where many standard methods struggle or completely fail. We showcase the performance of the method, specializing three important models of charge-boson coupling in solids and molecular complexes: the molecular Holstein model, which describes coupling between charge density and local distortions, the Peierls model, which describes modulation of charge hopping due to intersite distortions, and a more complex Holstein + Peierls system with couplings to two different phonon modes, paradigmatic of charge-lattice interactions in organic crystals. Furthermore, the GGCE serves as an efficient approach that can be systematically extended to different physical scenarios, thus providing a tool to model the frequency dependence of dressed particles in realistic settings.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Perturbation theory and thermal transport in mass-disordered alloys: Insights from Green's function methods

Lowest-order quantum perturbation theory (Fermi's golden rule) for phonon-disorder scattering has been used to predict thermal conductivities in several semiconducting alloys with surprising success given its underlying hypothesis of weak and dilute disorder. In this paper, we explain how this is possible by focusing on the case of maximally mass-disordered Mg 2 Si 1-x Sn x . In this work, we use a Chebyshev polynomials Green's function method, which allows a full treatment of disorder on very large systems (tens of millions of atoms) to probe individual phonon linewidths and frequency-resolved thermal transport. We demonstrate that the success of perturbation theory originates from the specific form of mass disorder terms in the phonon Green's function and from the interplay between anharmonic and disorder scattering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near-field radiative heat transfer between irregularly shaped dielectric particles modeled with the discrete system Green's function method

Near-field radiative heat transfer (NFRHT) between irregularly shaped dielectric particles made of SiO 2 and morphology characterized by Gaussian random spheres is studied. Particles are modeled using the discrete system Green's function (DSGF) approach, which is a volume integral numerical method based on fluctuational electrodynamics. This method is applicable to finite, three-dimensional objects, and all system interactions are defined independent of thermal excitation by a generalized system Green's function. The DSGF method is deemed suitable to model NFRHT between irregularly shaped particles after verification against the analytical solution for chains of two and three SiO 2 spheres. The NFRHT results reveal that geometric irregularity in particles leads to a reduction of the total conductance from that of comparable perfect spheres at vacuum separation distances smaller than the particle size, a regime in which NFRHT is a surface phenomenon. At vacuum separation distances larger than the particle size, NFRHT becomes a volumetric process, and the total conductance between irregularly shaped particles converges to that of comparable perfect spheres. Spectral analysis reveals, however, that particle irregularity leads to damping and broadening of resonances at all separation distances, thereby highlighting the importance of the DSGF method for spectral engineering in the near field. The reduced spectral coherence when particle size is larger than the vacuum separation distance is attributed to coupling of surface phonon-polaritons within the randomly generated, distorted particle features. For particle size smaller than the vacuum separation distance, resonance broadening and damping are linked with the multiple localized surface phonon modes supported by the composite spherical harmonic morphologies of the Gaussian random spheres. In conclusion, this paper has direct implications for thermal management of packed particle systems, with applications in radiative property control, electronics, energy conversion, and nanomanufacturing.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-space Green's function approach for intrinsic losses in x-ray spectra

Intrinsic inelastic losses in x-ray spectra originate from excitations in an interacting electron system due to a suddenly created core-hole. These losses characterize the features observed in x-ray photoemission spectra (XPS), as well as many-body effects such as satellites and edge-singularities in x-ray absorption spectra (XAS). However, they are usually neglected in practical calculations. As shown by Langreth these losses can be treated within linear response in terms of a cumulant Green's function in momentum space. Here we present a complementary ab initio real-space Green's function generalization of the Langreth cumulant in terms of the dynamically screened core-hole interaction W c (ω) and the independent particle response function. Here we find that the cumulant kernel β⁡(ω) is analogous to XAS, but with the transition operator replaced by the core-hole potential with monopole selection rules. The behavior reflects the analytic structure of the loss function, with peaks near the zeros of the dielectric function, consistent with delocalized quasiboson excitations. The approach simplifies when W c (ω) is localized and spherically symmetric. In conclusion, illustrative results and comparisons are presented for the electron gas, sodium, and some early transition metal compounds.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Free Chlorine during Washing of Fresh-Cut Leafy Greens on Escherichia coli O157:H7 Cross-Contamination and Risk of Illness

Addition of chlorine-based antimicrobial substances to fresh-cut leafy green wash water is done to minimize microbial cross-contamination during processing. We developed the FDA Leafy Green Risk Assessment Model (FDA-LGRAM) to quantify the impact of free chlorine concentration in wash water during fresh-cut lettuce processing on the extent of water-mediated cross-contamination between shredded lettuce and the associated risk of illness due to exposure to Escherichia coli O157:H7. At different contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads, the model compared the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness per serving between: (1) a scenario where fresh-cut lettuce was packaged without washing; and (2) scenarios involving washing fresh-cut lettuce with different levels of free chlorine (0 ppm, 5 ppm, 10 ppm, 15 ppm, and 20 ppm) prior to packaging. Our results indicate that the free chlorine level in wash water has a substantial impact on the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness associated with E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce. Results showed that the required level of free chlorine that can minimize water-mediated cross-contamination and reduce the corresponding risk of illness depended on contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads. Our model also indicated that the pathogen inactivation rate in wash water via free chlorine was a key model parameter that had a significant impact on the extent of cross-contamination during washing and the predicted associated risk of illness.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis of Green Hydrogen Energy Storage in a Cryogenic Flux Capacitor

Abstract The Cryogenic Flux Capacitor (CFC) is a cold, dense energy storage core that is being studied in the cryo-compressed, about 300 bar and 80K, region of gaseous hydrogen (GH2) storage and liquid hydrogen (LH2) region near the normal boiling point. Hydrogen storage is improved by physically bonding the molecules within the nanoscale pores of the aerogel composite blanket material. The process of bonding or debonding is governed by principles of physical adsorption (physisorption) and thermodynamics. The large surface area afforded by the nanoporous aerogel (∼1,000 m2/g) allows its storage performance to easily exceed capacities of high-pressure GH2 storage for an equivalent volume. With the integrated aerogel, subscale tests have shown that storage is increased by about 36% over a simple tank filled with GH2 at the same operating temperature and pressure. For LH2 conditions, the CFC is shown to operate at improved densities, but testing is ongoing. For the techno-economic analysis (TEA), the source of hydrogen is compared between onsite steam methane reforming (SMR) and onsite solar photovoltaic (PV) panels providing power to electrolyzers to produce green GH2. The TEA compares pure hydrogen produced at a small scale for a 25 MW power system and at a large scale in a 500 MW power system. The system allowed for hydrogen imports and exports at a set price with a tank sized for 10 hours of power production. The two power producing technologies are a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and hydrogen fuel cells. The SMR system uses natural gas as an input and includes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) system. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) are developed based on the capital cost and operating cost of the systems. The results are shown for current costs using a 2021 benchmark and DOE projections for cost improvements by 2030. The TEA showed that onsite hydrogen generation from SMR has an LCOH of about 1.4 to 2 USD per kg over the life of the plant and the PV hydrogen production LCOH is about 5.2 to 5.5 USD per kg. The LCOS of conventional GH2 systems is estimated to be $210/MWh and cost of storage for LH2 systems is $205/MWh for fuel cell systems and $249/MWh for CCGT systems. CFC improved the LCOS of all these systems to $198/MWh, $191/MWh and $233/MWh respectively. The LCOE also improved with conventional systems between $171/MWh and $228/MWh improved by CFC to between $167/MWh and $212/MWh. Using projections for improvement in costs following DOE’s goals by 2030, green hydrogen improved to as low as $78/MWh LCOS and LCOE for conventional cases. CFC improved over conventional storage with the lowest LCOS being $62/MWh and the lowest LCOE being $73/MWh. These results correspond to an LCOH of $2/kg. Finally, the TEA shows how LCOE is improved for hydrogen conditioning and storage over conventional systems and caverns in the 10 to 50 hour range.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future

This report is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The main insights from this study can also help inform policy development and investment decisions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future: Additional Modeling Scenarios to Explore Hydrogen Flexibility [Slides]

This slide deck is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The purpose of this slide deck is to supplement the main study (published in May 2024) with additional modeling scenarios to explore hydrogen flexibility.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response Functions of Correlated Systems within Green's Function Theory

Why use Green's functions as the fundamental variable? Wave-function (Psi) methods are king for high-fidelity and Density-functional (Rho) methods are very efficient (Kohn-Sham). Goldilocks principle: Green's function (G) methods straddle the Rho and Psi methods, intermediate in both accuracy and efficiency. Also, when interest lies in excitations & 2-particle properties: G-methods are natural - intrinsic to the theory.

DMFT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bettye Washington Greene: An Industrial Chemist and Inventor Who Lit a Path for Innovation

American civil rights pioneer John Lewis once wrote: “You are a light. You are the light. Never let anyone— any person or any force—dampen, dim or diminish your light.” At a time when the civil rights movement was shedding light on inequalities for African Americans, Dr. Bettye Washington Greene (March 20, 1935 – June 16, 1995) was forging a path that would light the way–figuratively and literally—for generations to come. She was one of the few African American women to earn a Ph.D. in chemistry in the 1960s, an era marked by the passing of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Washington Greene’s doctoral thesis evaluated light-scattering methods to determine the size of particles, which influences molecular effectiveness, activity, and stability. The fundamental knowledge she provided critically aided the pharmaceutical, catalyst and cosmetics industries [1]. Following her doctoral defense, Bettye went on to become the first African American female employed in a scientific research role at the Dow Chemical Company, where her innovations were awarded three patents.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting spring green-up across diverse North American grasslands

Vegetation phenology influences many ecosystem and climate processes, such as carbon uptake and energy and water cycles. Thus, understanding drivers of vegetation phenology is crucial for predicting current and future impacts of climate change on ecological systems. Existing models can accurately predict the date of spring green-up in temperate forests but tend to perform poorly in grassland systems. We hypothesize this is because most do not incorporate water availability, a primary limiting factor for grassland plants. In this study, we used long-term datasets of digital imagery from the PhenoCam Network of 43 diverse North American grassland sites (195 site-years) to test existing spring phenology models, as well as develop several new models that incorporate precipitation or soil moisture (53 models). As a result, most of the new models performed substantially better, with the best model requiring sufficient accumulated precipitation followed by warm temperatures to trigger spring onset (root mean square error, RMSE, between predicted and observed dates = 16.0 days). Importantly, the best model performed well across all grassland types using a single set of parameters, from temperate to arid grasslands. Since plants are adapted to their local climates, model performance was further improved when parameters were independently optimized for four separate climate regions (RMSE = 10.4 days). Therefore, both sufficient precipitation and temperature are required for grassland green-up, but optimal thresholds vary by region. Running the top model with projected climate data (representative concentration pathway 8.5) suggests that, depending on the climate region, spring onset will occur up to 12 days earlier within 100 years in temperature-limited sites, but the trend is unclear for precipitation-limited sites (3.5 ± 8.0 days later). This new phenology model improves our ability to understand and predict grassland dynamics, with implications for both current and future ecosystem processes related to carbon and water cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗