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Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feature Based Qualification of 17-4PH Stainless Steel to Evaluate Location-Specific Variability in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Qualifying large-scale metal additive manufacturing (M-AM) technologies such as wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) can be challenging. This is especially significant in precipitation hardened martensitic stainless steels like SS 17-4PH, where thermal histories induce location-specific microstructural variability and property anisotropy. The Department of Defense (DOD) and the United States Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Ground Vehicle Systems Center (GVSC) Ground Vehicle Materials Engineering (GVME) aim to build robust and qualified large-scale M-AM workflows that could reduce the time and cost through quick and informed evaluation, testing, and development of feedstock, processes, and parts. The report presents the findings from the collaborative efforts between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the U.S. Army GVSC GVME. The aim of this project was to develop a geometric feature-based qualification framework for WAAM of SS 17-4PH components. This report outlines selection methodology of representative build geometries, optimization of WAAM process parameters, in-situ monitoring, microstructure-property evaluation, thermal simulations, as well as data visualization techniques incorporated in this project. The results from this project demonstrate a clear understanding of thermal history dependent phase evolution and consequent location-specific property variations in WAAM of SS 17-4PH. These results in conjunction with the data-driven methodologies used in this project are expected to reduce qualification timelines, improve predictability, and accelerate the development of reliable feature-based qualification strategies for part production via large-scale M-AM technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SpecFIDLER User Manual (Software V.2.6.0)

The Spectroscopic Field Instrument for Detection of Low Energy Radiation (SpecFIDLER) allows response teams to detect and quantify plutonium contamination on the ground. Notional scenarios include dispersion from a weapon accident, or the launch failure of a space probe containing a radioisotope thermoelectric generator. Unlike other instruments, the thin-window sodium iodide detector is sensitive to the low-energy gamma rays emitted by plutonium isotopes. The system supports both mobile survey as well as stationary sampling. This manual provides information about installing, maintaining, and troubleshooting the SpecFIDLER. The scope of this document includes the physical hardware, software for data acquisition, and algorithms for data analysis. Recent changes to the software and algorithms aim to streamline the operation of the system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

​​Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Seismic Risk Assessment for Cascadia Subduction Zone Airport Facilities​

Portland International Airport in Oregon is exploring operating a fleet of 28 fuel cell electric buses to support airport operations and possibly provide backup power during outages. In this report, we evaluate the risk of hydrogen deployment at an airport considering the potential for seismic activity. We present a seismic risk assessment for pressurized piping for a generic hydrogen refueling station at the airport. Only pressurized piping was considered in the risk analysis because of its vulnerability and availability of fragility information unlike the other components. Seismic capacity of other components should be included as more information becomes available. To characterize the seismic hazard, we considered the initiating event frequency of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake event based on data from the literature. Seismic stressors that translate to the site from an earthquake event are expressed as peak ground acceleration. Site disturbance is characterized as a function of soil conditions, represented by different shear wave velocity values, which affect how seismic waves propagate and impact structures. Pipe fragility curves as a function of seismic capacity were used to correlate ground acceleration and failure probability. These fragility characteristics were combined with site-specific soil conditions to calculate the probability of pipe rupture during a seismic event. It should be noted that multiple simultaneous failures due to an earthquake event as a common cause are not considered. Some epistemic uncertainties such as self-exciting shocks, aftershocks, and the time variant nature of the ground motion are not considered either.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Unconventional polaronic ground state in superconducting LiTi 2 O 4

Geometrically frustrated lattices can display a range of correlated phenomena, ranging from spin frustration and charge order to dispersionless flat bands due to quantum interference. One particularly compelling family of such materials is the half-valence spinel LiB 2 O 4 materials. On the B-site frustrated pyrochlore sublattice, the interplay of correlated metallic behavior and charge frustration leads to a superconducting state in LiTi 2 O 4 and heavy fermion behavior in LiV 2 O 4 . To date, however, LiTi 2 O 4 has primarily been understood as a conventional BCS superconductor despite a lattice structure that could host more exotic ground states. Here, we present a multimodal investigation of LiTi 2 O 4 , combining ARPES, RIXS, proximate magnetic probes, and ab-initio many-body theoretical calculations. Our data reveals a novel mobile polaronic ground state with spectroscopic signatures that underlie co-dominant electron-phonon coupling and electron-electron correlations also found in the lightly doped cuprates. The cooperation between the two interaction scales distinguishes LiTi 2 O 4 from other superconducting titanates, suggesting an unconventional origin to superconductivity in LiTi 2 O 4 . Our work deepens our understanding of the rare interplay of electron-electron correlations and electron-phonon coupling in unconventional superconducting systems. In particular, our work identifies the geometrically frustrated, mixed-valence spinel family as an under-explored platform for discovering unconventional, correlated ground states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Periodic Gamma-Ray Modulation of the Blazar PG 1553+113 Confirmed by Fermi-LAT and Multiwavelength Observations

A 2.1 yr periodic oscillation of the gamma-ray flux from the blazar PG 1553+113 has previously been tentatively identified in ∼7 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. After 15 yr of Fermi sky-survey observations, doubling the total time range, we report >7 cycle gamma-ray modulation with an estimated significance of 4σ against stochastic red noise. Independent determinations of oscillation period and phase in the earlier and the new data are in close agreement (chance probability <0.01). Pulse timing over the full light curve is also consistent with a coherent periodicity. Multiwavelength new data from Swift X-Ray Telescope, Burst Alert Telescope, and UVOT, and from KAIT, Catalina Sky Survey, All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae, and Owens Valley Radio Observatory ground-based observatories as well as archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer satellite-All Sky Monitor data, published optical data of Tuorla, and optical historical Harvard plates data are included in our work. Optical and radio light curves show clear correlations with the gamma-ray modulation, possibly with a nonconstant time lag for the radio flux. We interpret the gamma-ray periodicity as possibly arising from a pulsational accretion flow in a sub-parsec binary supermassive black hole system of elevated mass ratio, with orbital modulation of the supplied material and energy in the jet. Other astrophysical scenarios introduced include instabilities, disk and jet precession, rotation or nutation, and perturbations by massive stars or intermediate-mass black holes in polar orbit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Heavy-Duty Nonroad Material Handler Electrification Part 1: Real-World Drive Cycle Development

Knowing a detailed operating cycle is critical for developing and testing equipment. Operating cycles can be separated by two clear distinctions: (1) regulatory or non-regulatory and (2) application at the engine-only or full machine level. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Nonroad Transient Cycle (NRTC) may be a good representation of engine use in many types of equipment, but there is a gap in standardized and validated drive cycles specifically for nonroad material handlers. Lacking a standardized drive cycle makes it difficult to accurately benchmark machine performance and validate new powertrain technologies. The objective of this investigation is to illustrate the development of a custom drive cycle augmented with real-world customer use data that serves multiple purposes: (1) understand the range of operation and utilization that formulated inputs for electrified architecture analysis and (2) develop a repetitive and consistent maneuver to establish baseline energy consumption enabling equivalent comparison to future electrified prototype builds. This article presents a solution specifically for a 23-ton nonroad material handler in which material handling, machine transport, and extended idle were homologated to form representative short cycles defined by machine velocity and hydraulic cylinder position. The most intensive material handling short cycles had a load factor of 40% and an average fuel rate of 16 L/h. Combined with a visual aid, the short cycles exhibited low variability, having less than 5% root mean square (RMS) error in lift and reach position with respect to the average. The machine’s performance on these short cycles at the Advanced Power Systems Research Center (APSRC) was compared to results from two real-world customer locations operating the instrumented test machine in a cyclical manner, and for similar ground conditions were found to be comparable in fuel consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Plant Characteristics, Porewater, Gas Flux, and Soil Biogeochemistry at Council Road Site Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2023

Data collected at Council, AK (64°51’35.0”N 163°41’59.1”W) during a summer campaign in 2023. Water data consists of soil porewater collected by centrifuging soil cores and also by field collection with porewater samplers (rhizons). Gas data consists of CO2, CH4 and N2O surface soil fluxes measured with a portable FTIR analyzer. Plant and root data consists of biomass, root length, diameter and mass. Soil data consists of total C and N. Air, water and soil samples span two main locations: a thermokarst wetland and an upland tussock. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).This dataset was generated to broadly address the following research question: how will climate change (i.e., thawing permafrost, landscape change) alter the ecosystem flux (sink versus source) of important greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 and N2O?Description of the contents of this data package: This dataset contains 5 different individual .csv files containing plant, soil, water and gas data. No software is needed to utilize them. PFTCover: Plant functional type ground cover in 1x1 meter plots. SoilCores: Solidphase and porewater phase soil biogeochemical variablesPlantData: Above and belowground plant traits. GasFlux: Surface plant-soil gas measurementsFieldPorewater: Field collected porewater biogeochemical variables

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-Range Biometric Identification in Real World Scenarios: A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework Based on Missions

The considerable body of data available for evaluating biometric recognition systems in Research and Development (R&D) environments has contributed to the increasingly common problem of target performance mismatch. Biometric algorithms are frequently tested against data that may not reflect the real world applications they target. From a Testing and Evaluation (T&E) standpoint, this domain mismatch causes difficulty assessing when improvements in State-of-the-Art (SOTA) research actually translate to improved applied outcomes. This problem can be addressed with thoughtful preparation of data and experimental methods to reflect specific use-cases and scenarios.To that end, this paper evaluates research solutions for identifying individuals at ranges and altitudes, which could support various application areas such as counterterrorism, protection of critical infrastructure facilities, military force protection, and border security. We address challenges including image quality issues and reliance on face recognition as the sole biometric modality. By fusing face and body features, we propose developing robust biometric systems for effective long-range identification from both the ground and steep pitch angles. Preliminary results show promising progress in whole-body recognition. This paper presents these early findings and discusses potential future directions for advancing long-range biometric identification systems based on mission-driven metrics.

Aykac, Deniz↗

Deep Factorization Machine Learning for Disaggregation of Transmission Load Profiles with High Penetration of Behind-The-Meter Solar

The ever-growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), especially behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generations, poses imperative operational challenges to system operators such as regional transmission organizations (RTOs). It is important for RTOs to effectively and accurately extract actual load profiles at the transmission level for a single node with significant BTM solar injection. This paper first illustrates the necessity of disaggregating the daily actual load profile of a single node. Furthermore, by segmenting nodes with selected timeseries features, nodes with significant BTM solar generation are identified. Lastly, a bi-level framework is proposed, comprising reference node disaggregation and DeepFM nodal disaggregation, aimed at disaggregating the nodal load profiles from which system operators require more information. By adopting a hybrid Deep Factorization Machine (DeepFM) model, the model achieve accurate results by extracting both linear and nonlinear relations between nodes in the same region and the zonal load and nodal load profile. To overcome the lack of ground truth, this paper segments the load profile into daytime, nighttime, and zero-crossing points and utilizes the latter two for evaluation purposes. The proposed disaggregation procedure is validated using real world, minute-level, normalized, and anonymized nodal data in the PJM service territory.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Field Validation of a Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Software Solution

The U.S. General Services Administration's (GSA's) Green Proving Ground (GPG) program, in partnership with the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), completed a field study of a Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) software solution. The study focused on a single testbed facility to test the GEB functionality of the software solution, along with other features. The testbed facility - a courthouse - is a common building type in GSA's vast building portfolio, offering potentially impactful findings on a scalable level. The study evaluated Prescriptive Data's technology, Nantum OS, a connected building operating system ("GEB Solution") which aggregates multiple sources of previously siloed building data and combines that data with external sources, such as weather information or utility signals, into a single integrated platform. A GEB Solution is a type of Energy Management Information System (EMIS). EMIS is defined as a system of devices, data services, and software applications that communicates with any building system or third-party data source to aggregate and transform data into new capabilities to aid in the optimization of energy use at the building, campus, or agency level. This specific GEB Solution is an EMIS with ASO, automated system optimization, offering supervisory control of certain aspects of the Building Automation System (BAS). Multiple features were evaluated including, but not limited to, Continuous Demand Management to avoid setting new monthly kilowatt (kW) peaks, energy efficiency for reduction of kilowatt hours (kWh) and natural gas consumption, and automated demand response (ADR) for purposes of lowering demand during a utility called Demand Response (DR) event. The testbed facility was the Foley Federal Building and US Courthouse ("Foley Federal Building") located in Las Vegas, NV. This is a 209,496 sq. ft. building constructed in the 1960s with major renovations in 2004. The facility was a good candidate due to the large prevalence of office and courthouse spaces in the GSA portfolio of buildings. It also has many features which allow integration into and control of the building and a strong facilities team to assist with the study. Quantitative and qualitative performance objectives were developed using GSA's GPG GEB project template along with input from the vendor and building facility staff; these are outlined in Table 1. The quantitative performance objectives focused on continuous demand management, energy efficiency, and automated demand response. The qualitative performance objectives focused on the ease of installation and commissioning as well as the operability of the GEB solution. Other performance metrics that are reported on include carbon reduction, cost effectiveness, and occupant acceptance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of WSR-88D Level III and MRMS Rainfall Estimates Against Rain Gauge Observations at the Savannah River Site

Rainfall data for the Savannah River Site (SRS) has been historically measured by rain gauges. These instruments serve as ground truth for most climatological and weather applications; however, gauge measurements are prone to errors or biases under certain weather conditions. Rainfall estimates from radar reflectivity values have been developed and improved over the years and serve as an alternative or supplement for gauge measurements. This study compares measurements from tipping bucket rain gauges with rainfall estimates from the NOAA NWS WSR-88D Level III hourly rainfall product and the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) gauge-corrected precipitation estimate. Results show good agreement between radar derived amounts and ground measurements, with MRMS values showing correlation coefficients of 0.60-0.95 and RMSE values of less than 1.0 cm (0.4 in). The WSR-88D Level III estimates result in correlation coefficients of 0.46-0.86 and RMSE values of less than 1.3 cm (0.5 in). Few outliers are observed for each data pair and are evaluated against precipitation classification products (WSR-88D Hybrid Hydrometeor Classification product and MRMS Precipitation Flag product). The rain gauges used in this study are not part of the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) network used to correct the MRMS estimates and therefore, results of this work provide an independent validation of the MRMS gauge correction scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Analytical Solutions and U-Net Model for Predicting Groundwater Contaminant Plumes in Pump-and-Treat Systems

Pump-and-treat (P&T) is a common technique for groundwater remediation involving the extraction and treatment of contaminated water above ground. Optimizing the design and operation of the P&T well network is essential for maximizing the system’s effectiveness and efficiency. However, this optimization often necessitates many model evaluations, leading to computationally demanding tasks. This study introduces a novel approach that integrates analytical solutions for groundwater dynamics with the U-Net (Ronneberger et al., 2015) deep learning framework to predict groundwater contaminant plume migration under dynamic pumping conditions. By incorporating the Thiem equation (Thiem, 1906) into the input preprocessing, the U-Net model transforms sparse well data into a continuous spatial field that captures the hydraulic impacts of pumping activities. This integration enables the model to leverage both deep learning capabilities and classical physics-based groundwater theories, enhancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. These advancements can facilitate rapid, large-scale evaluations of P&T optimization simulations, allowing for timely and effective decision-making in well placement and system management. We demonstrate the model's robust performance across both simplified transient 2D models and a more complex 3D heterogeneous site model at the 200 West P&T facility at the Hanford Site. The U-Net-based model offers substantial computational advantages, reducing simulation times significantly compared to full physics-based models and providing a powerful tool for rapid site evaluation and P&T system optimization, such as evaluating alternative P&T well network designs. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced machine learning models to significantly enhance the efficiency and sustainability of groundwater remediation efforts, offering a novel application of U-Net architecture in environmental science.

Pump-and-treat↗

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

Study of the Protection Improvements for a Weak Grid Area With High Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs)

This project designs enhanced protection scheme for the real-world weak grid area with a high penetration of IBRs. As the existing protection schemes are originally designed for traditional synchronous machines, we first evaluate if the protection scheme will continue to operate reliably in systems with high levels of IBRs. Hardware relays are tested using a controller-hardware-in-the-loop setup. PSCAD electromagnetic transient simulation with IBR original equipment manufacturer black-box models is used to perform fault studies and generate COMTRADE data, which are replayed by a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) to feed input to the hardware relays. Three scenarios are analyzed: normal operation, an N-1 contingency, and an IBR-only scenario. The evaluation results reveal the following: 1) the protection scheme remains reliable under normal conditions and N-1 contingencies and 2) in IBR-only scenarios, differential protection (87L) continues to operate reliably, whereas local protection elements, such as distance and directional elements, fail because of the lack of regulated negative sequence current contributed by IBRs. Enhanced protection is designed to address the challenge of lack of negative sequence current from IBRs, including increased restraining factors a2 and k2 to block 32Q or using V instead QV ORDER for ground faults, enhanced mho distance element with voltage and phase angle supervision for L-L faults. The efficacy of enhanced protection logic is validated and proven to work reliably. Additionally, IEEE Std. 2800-2022 negative sequence current compliant GFL and GFM IBRs from another vendor are tested and proven to work reliably without need for enhanced logic. Therefore, this work provides valuable decision-making for utilities facing protection system challenges due to IBRs, either designing enhanced protection scheme or requesting their IBRs being IEEE Std. 2800-2022 compliant to produce regulated negative sequence current for protection relay to make correct decision.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗