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DOE OSTI2022

From Qualitative to Quantitative AOP: A Case Study of Neurodegeneration

Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) include a sequence of events that connect a molecular-level initiating event with an adverse outcome at the cellular level for human health endpoints, or at the population level for ecological endpoints. When there is enough quantitative understanding of the relationships between key events in an AOP, a mathematical model may be developed to connect key events in a quantitative AOP (qAOP). Ideally, a qAOP will reduce the time and resources spent for chemical toxicity testing and risk assessment and enable the extrapolation of data collected at the molecular-level by in vitro assays, for example, to predict whether an adverse outcome may occur. Here, we review AOPs in the AOPWiki, an AOP repository, to determine best practices that would facilitate conversion from AOP to qAOP. Then, focusing on a particular case study, acetylcholinesterase inhibition leading to neurodegeneration, we describe specific methods and challenges. Examples of challenges include the availability and collection of quantitative data amenable to model development, the lack of studies that measure multiple key events, and model accessibility or transferability across platforms. We conclude with recommendations for improving key event and key event relationship descriptions in the AOPWiki that facilitate the transition of qualitative AOPs to qAOPs.

Sinitsyn, Dennis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of human presence on African mammal waterhole attendance and temporal activity patterns

Abstract Human impacts on the environment and wildlife populations are increasing globally, threatening thousands of species with extinction. While wildlife‐based tourism is beneficial for educating tourists, generating income for conservation efforts, and providing local employment, more information is needed to understand how this industry may impact wildlife. In this study, we used motion‐activated cameras at 12 waterholes on a private game reserve in northern Namibia to determine if the presence of humans and permanent infrastructure affected mammal visits by examining their (1) number of visits, (2) time spent, and (3) diel activity patterns. Our results revealed no differences in the number of visits based on human presence for any of the 17 mammal species studied. However, giraffes ( Giraffe camelopardalis ) spent more time at waterholes before observer presence compared to during. Additionally, several species changed diel activity patterns when human observers were present. Notably, several carnivore and ungulate species increased overlap in their activity patterns during periods while humans were present relative to when humans were absent. These modifications of mammal temporal activity patterns due to human presence could eventually lead to changes in community structure and trophic dynamics because of altered predator–prey interactions. As humans continue to expand into wildlife habitats, and wildlife‐based tourism increases globally, it is imperative that we fully understand the effects of anthropogenic pressures on mammal behavior. Monitoring of wildlife behavioral changes in response to human activity is crucial to further develop wildlife tourism opportunities in a way that optimizes the impact of conservation goals.

Patterson, J. R. [Savannah River Ecology Lab, Warn↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and white-tailed deer

The emergence of a novel pathogen in a susceptible population can cause rapid spread of infection. High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) has been reported in multiple locations, likely resulting from several human-to-deer spillover events followed by deer-to-deer transmission. Knowledge of the risk and direction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission between humans and potential reservoir hosts is essential for effective disease control and prioritisation of interventions. Using genomic data, we reconstruct the transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and deer, estimate the case finding rate and attempt to infer relative rates of transmission between species. We found no evidence of direct or indirect transmission from deer to human. However, with an estimated case finding rate of only 4.2%, spillback to humans cannot be ruled out. The extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within deer populations and the large number of unsampled cases highlights the need for active surveillance at the human–animal interface.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prevalence of human papillomavirus genotypes in high-grade cervical precancer and invasive cervical cancer from cancer registries before and after vaccine introduction in the United States

Background. US population-based cancer registries can be used for surveillance of human papillomavirus (HPV) types found in HPV-associated cancers. Using this framework, HPV prevalence among high-grade cervical precancers and invasive cervical cancers were compared before and after HPV vaccine availability. Methods. Archived tissue from 2 studies of cervical precancers and invasive cervical cancers diagnosed from 1993-2005 (prevaccine) were identified from 7 central cancer registries in Florida; Hawaii; Iowa; Kentucky; Louisiana; Los Angeles County, California; and Michigan; from 2014 through 2015 (postvaccine) cases were identified from 3 registries in Iowa, Kentucky, and Louisiana. HPV testing was performed using L1 consensus polymerase chain reaction analysis. HPV-type–specific prevalence was examined grouped by hierarchical attribution to vaccine types: HPV 16, 18, HPV 31, 33, 45, 52, 58, other oncogenic HPV types, and other types/HPV negative. Generalized logit models were used to compare HPV prevalence in the prevaccine study to the postvaccine study by patient age, adjusting for sampling factors. Results. A total of 676 precancers (328 prevaccine and 348 postvaccine) and 1140 invasive cervical cancers (777 prevaccine and 363 postvaccine) were typed. No differences were observed in HPV-type prevalence by patient age between the 2 studies among precancers or invasive cancers. Conclusions. The lack of reduction in vaccine-type prevalence between the 2 studies is likely explained by the low number of cases and low HPV vaccination coverage among women in the postvaccine study. Monitoring HPV-type prevalence through population-based strategies will continue to be important in evaluating the impact of the HPV vaccine.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reduced meiotic recombination in rhesus macaques and the origin of the human recombination landscape

Characterizing meiotic recombination rates across the genomes of nonhuman primates is important for understanding the genetics of primate populations, performing genetic analyses of phenotypic variation and reconstructing the evolution of human recombination. Rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) are the most widely used nonhuman primates in biomedical research. We constructed a high-resolution genetic map of the rhesus genome based on whole genome sequence data from Indian-origin rhesus macaques. The genetic markers used were approximately 18 million SNPs, with marker density 6.93 per kb across the autosomes. We report that the genome-wide recombination rate in rhesus macaques is significantly lower than rates observed in apes or humans, while the distribution of recombination across the macaque genome is more uniform. These observations provide new comparative information regarding the evolution of recombination in primates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

BinaRena: a dedicated interactive platform for human-guided exploration and binning of metagenomes

Background: Exploring metagenomic contigs and “binning” them into metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) are essential for the delineation of functional and evolutionary guilds within microbial communities. Despite the advances in automated binning algorithms, their capabilities in recovering MAGs with accuracy and biological relevance are so far limited. Researchers often find that human involvement is necessary to achieve representative binning results. This manual process however is expertise demanding and labor intensive, and it deserves to be supported by software infrastructure. Results: We present BinaRena, a comprehensive and versatile graphic interface dedicated to aiding human operators to explore metagenome assemblies via customizable visualization and to associate contigs with bins. Contigs are rendered as an interactive scatter plot based on various data types, including sequence metrics, coverage profiles, taxonomic assignments, and functional annotations. Various contig-level operations are permitted, such as selection, masking, highlighting, focusing, and searching. Binning plans can be conveniently edited, inspected, and compared visually or using metrics including silhouette coefficient and adjusted Rand index. Completeness and contamination of user-selected contigs can be calculated in real time. In demonstration of BinaRena’s usability, we show that it facilitated biological pattern discovery, hypothesis generation, and bin refinement in a complex tropical peatland metagenome. It enabled isolation of pathogenic genomes within closely related populations from the gut microbiota of diarrheal human subjects. It significantly improved overall binning quality after curating results of automated binners using a simulated marine dataset. Conclusions: BinaRena is an installation-free, dependency-free, client-end web application that operates directly in any modern web browser, facilitating ease of deployment and accessibility for researchers of all skill levels. The program is hosted at https://github.com/qiyunlab/binarena, together with documentation, tutorials, example data, and a live demo. It effectively supports human researchers in intuitive interpretation and fine tuning of metagenomic data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning Scene Classification Experiments in Automatic Detection of Slums on Planetscope Imagery

Population growth is increasingly happening in slum settlements of the large urban centers in the Global South. The term "slum" encompasses a wide range of communities, located mostly in underserved areas, and often exhibiting distinct structural and functional informalities with a relatively high concentration of marginalized populations. To address the issues confronting slums for effective planning and development, including the realistic estimation of the resident population, identifying them accurately is fundamental. Given the disagreements over a universal definition, diverse characteristic features, and socio-political limitations, global detection of slums is a veritable challenge. In this paper, we present experiments in slum detection using a scene classification algorithm and 3-meter spatial resolution satellite imagery. We train and evaluate the model for slum detection in Mumbai, India for the year 2023 and test the temporal generalization of the trained model on Mumbai in 2020 and 2018. In addition, we explore the pathways toward geographic generalization to Kolkata and Delhi (India). We discuss several limitations in the workflow and model, situate our findings in the existing literature, and suggest improvements and alternatives. With this, we establish baseline methods and experiments as a first step towards developing an image-based global slum detection framework and algorithm. This work adds to the community discussion on methods, data challenges, and open questions related to the detection of slums globally. With this research, we hope to improve our understanding of human settlements, especially in critical areas, improve population estimates, and help measure progress towards the sustainable development goals.

Arndt, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate change as an incentive for future human migration

Human migration is both motivated and constrained by a multitude of socioeconomic and environmental factors, including climate-related factors. Climatic factors exert an influence on local and regional population density. Here, we examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today's relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such “all other factors held constant” analyses are unlikely to make quantitatively accurate predictions, but the order of magnitude and spatial pattern that come out of such an analysis can be useful when considering the influence of climate change on the possible scale and pattern of future incentives to migrate. Our results indicate that, within decades, climate change may provide hundreds of millions of people with additional incentive to migrate, largely from warm tropical and subtropical countries to cooler temperate countries, with India being the country with the greatest number of people with additional incentive to migrate. These climate-driven incentives would be among the broader constellation of incentives that influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be areas that are likely to be most adversely affected by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Domestication in dry-cured meat Penicillium fungi: Convergent specific phenotypes and horizontal gene transfers without strong genetic subdivision

Some fungi have been domesticated for food production, with genetic differentiation between populations from food and wild environments, and food populations often acquiring beneficial traits through horizontal gene transfers (HGTs). Studying their adaptation to human-made substrates is of fundamental and applied importance for understanding adaptation processes and for further strain improvement. We studied here the population structures and phenotypes of two distantly related Penicillium species used for dry-cured meat production, P. nalgiovense, the most common species in the dry-cured meat food industry, and P. salamii, used locally by farms. Both species displayed low genetic diversity, lacking differentiation between strains isolated from dry-cured meat and those from other environments. Nevertheless, the strains collected from dry-cured meat within each species displayed slower proteolysis and lipolysis than their wild conspecifics, and those of P. nalgiovense were whiter. Phenotypically, the non-dry-cured meat strains were more similar to their sister species than to their conspecific dry-cured meat strains, indicating an evolution of specific phenotypes in dry-cured meat strains. A comparison of available Penicillium genomes from various environments revealed HGTs, particularly between P. nalgiovense and P. salamii (representing almost 1.5 Mb of cumulative length). HGTs additionally involved P. biforme, also found in dry-cured meat products. We further detected positive selection based on amino acid changes. Our findings suggest that selection by humans has shaped the P. salamii and P. nalgiovense populations used for dry-cured meat production, which constitutes domestication. Several genetic and phenotypic changes were similar in P. salamii, P. nalgiovense and P. biforme, indicating convergent adaptation to the same human-made environment. Our findings have implications for fundamental knowledge on adaptation and for the food industry: the discovery of different phenotypes and of two mating types paves the way for strain improvement by conventional breeding, to elucidate the genomic bases of beneficial phenotypes and to generate diversity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods to capture proteomic and metabolomic signatures from cerebrospinal fluid and serum of healthy individuals

Discovery of reliable signatures for the empirical diagnosis of neurological diseases—both infectious and non-infectious—remains unrealized. One of the primary challenges encountered in such studies is the lack of a comprehensive database representative of a signature background that exists in healthy individuals, and against which an aberrant event can be assessed. For neurological insults and injuries, it is important to understand the normal profile in the neuronal (cerebrospinal fluid) and systemic fluids (e.g., blood). Here, we present the first comparative multi-omic human database of signatures derived from a population of 30 individuals (15 males, 15 females, 23–74 years) of serum and cerebrospinal fluid. In addition to empirical signatures, we also assigned common pathways between serum and CSF. Together, our findings provide a cohort against which aberrant signature profiles in individuals with neurological injuries/disease can be assessed—providing a pathway for comprehensive diagnostics and therapeutics discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human cerebrospinal fluid contains diverse lipoprotein subspecies enriched in proteins implicated in central nervous system health

Lipoproteins in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of the central nervous system (CNS) resemble plasma high-density lipoproteins (HDLs), which are a compositionally and structurally diverse spectrum of nanoparticles with pleiotropic functionality. Whether CSF lipoproteins (CSF-Lps) exhibit similar heterogeneity is poorly understood because they are present at 100-fold lower concentrations than plasma HDL. To investigate the diversity of CSF-Lps, we developed a sensitive fluorescent technology to characterize lipoprotein subspecies in small volumes of human CSF. We identified 10 distinctly sized populations of CSF-Lps, most of which were larger than plasma HDL. Mass spectrometric analysis identified 303 proteins across the populations, over half of which have not been reported in plasma HDL. Computational analysis revealed that CSF-Lps are enriched in proteins important for wound healing, inflammation, immune response, and both neuron generation and development. Network analysis indicated that different subpopulations of CSF-Lps contain unique combinations of these proteins. Our study demonstrates that CSF-Lp subspecies likely exist that contain compositional signatures related to CNS health.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Lawrence Livermore Microbal Detection Array at the Statens Serum Institut

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Statens Serum Institut to evaluate and transition the Lawrence Livermore Microarray Detection Array (LLMDA) analysis software package, the Composite Likelihood Maximization method (CLiMax) to the SSI. The SSI is a public enterprise under the Danish Ministry of Health that operates a microbiology reference laboratory for the Danish population and analyzes tens to thousands of human clinical samples annually. SSI has been collaborating with the LLNL team for several years to use the LLMDA to analyze viral and bacterial infections from human clinical samples. The collaboration has resulted in two joint publications thus far, describing improvements to LLMDA sample preparation, and the utility of the LLMDA for detecting emerging viruses in clinical samples.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop

Decarbonization refers to a large-scale shift away from fossil fuel sources for energy production and toward energy sources, energy end-use practices, and land management approaches that do not result in a net increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Decarbonization in the Southeastern United States is distinguished from that of other regions in the country by its potential impact on historically underserved populations and the ways this region’s human–environmental systems are predicted to fare in a climate-altered world. In parallel, ensuring a clean energy transition requires the ability to engage entire communities that are motivated to learn, build, and encourage the spread of so-called clean tech. In contrast to other technology trends from the past century, the foundation of clean tech is a shared sense of purpose—a collective strategy to mitigate the threats of climate change and support a better environment for everyone. As seen in the Office of Science and Technology Policy’s (OSTP’s) Net-Zero Technology Action Plan (2023), decarbonization is best accelerated by simultaneous investments in Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment of technology in tandem with intentional policy and community-based solutions. The 2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop, hosted by the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), aimed to bring together members of our communities and a group of regional experts to strategize about opportunities in this important area, as well as to incorporate the important pillar of System Interactions to bridge the gap between clean tech’s intent and its impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An expedited screening platform for the discovery of anti-ageing compounds in vitro and in vivo

Background: Restraining or slowing ageing hallmarks at the cellular level have been proposed as a route to increased organismal lifespan and healthspan. Consequently, there is great interest in anti-ageing drug discovery. However, this currently requires laborious and lengthy longevity analysis. Here, we present a novel screening readout for the expedited discovery of compounds that restrain ageing of cell populations in vitro and enable extension of in vivo lifespan. Methods: Using Illumina methylation arrays, we monitored DNA methylation changes accompanying long-term passaging of adult primary human cells in culture. This enabled us to develop, test, and validate the CellPopAge Clock, an epigenetic clock with underlying algorithm, unique among existing epigenetic clocks for its design to detect anti-ageing compounds in vitro. Additionally, we measured markers of senescence and performed longevity experiments in vivo in Drosophila, to further validate our approach to discover novel anti-ageing compounds. Finally, we bench mark our epigenetic clock with other available epigenetic clocks to consolidate its usefulness and specialisation for primary cells in culture. Results: We developed a novel epigenetic clock, the CellPopAge Clock, to accurately monitor the age of a population of adult human primary cells. We find that the CellPopAge Clock can detect decelerated passage-based ageing of human primary cells treated with rapamycin or trametinib, well-established longevity drugs. We then utilise the CellPopAge Clock as a screening tool for the identification of compounds which decelerate ageing of cell populations, uncovering novel anti-ageing drugs, torin2 and dactolisib (BEZ-235). We demonstrate that delayed epigenetic ageing in human primary cells treated with anti-ageing compounds is accompanied by a reduction in senescence and ageing biomarkers. Finally, we extend our screening platform in vivo by taking advantage of a specially formulated holidic medium for increased drug bioavailability in Drosophila. We show that the novel anti-ageing drugs, torin2 and dactolisib (BEZ-235), increase longevity in vivo. Conclusions: Our method expands the scope of CpG methylation profiling to accurately and rapidly detecting anti-ageing potential of drugs using human cells in vitro, and in vivo, providing a novel accelerated discovery platform to test sought after anti-ageing compounds and geroprotectors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss

Documenting the rate, magnitude and causes of snow loss is essential to benchmark the pace of climate change and to manage the differential water security risks of snowpack declines. So far, however, observational uncertainties in snow mass have made the detection and attribution of human-forced snow losses elusive, undermining societal preparedness. Here we show that human-caused warming has caused declines in Northern Hemisphere-scale March snowpack over the 1981–2020 period. Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributable—even absent their clear detection in individual snow products—and will accelerate and homogenize with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources in the absence of substantial climate mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vertebrate and invertebrate competition for carrion in human‐impacted environments depends on abiotic factors

Abstract Human altered landscapes have caused declines in the diversity of wildlife where behaviorally plastic species (i.e., mesocarnivores and invasive species) tend to monopolize these areas and consume predictable and readily accessible food resources, such as human food waste and carrion. Increased consumption of carrion by vertebrates and invasive invertebrate species can alter population dynamics of native necrophagous insects relying on these resources. We tested the hypothesis that vertebrate scavengers and invasive species reduce blow fly (1) ability to use carrion and (2) reproduction in human‐impacted environments in central Texas, USA, with season, habitat (field and wooded landscapes), and carrion type (species of carrion and coat color) acting synergistically. Vertebrate scavengers in this habitat, of which 75% of the documented species were mesocarnivores and obligate scavengers, consumed 100% of carrion during the winter and 62% during summer despite having low species richness (2–5 species). Of the remaining carcasses available for arthropod activity during summer, the invasive red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), monopolized 34%, and blow flies (e.g., Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya rufifacies [Diptera: Calliphoridae]) were only able to colonize 25%. Approximately 90% of carrion that was utilized by blow flies was co‐colonized by fire ants, and subsequent production of adult blow flies experienced up to a ninefold reduction in production compared with carcasses that were not scavenged by vertebrates or fire ants. Our results demonstrate oviposition resources used by blow flies in environments altered by human activity are reduced significantly by vertebrate scavengers and an invasive ant species. Future research should determine whether competitive interactions between vertebrate and invasive ant competitors for access to carrion resources have population‐level impacts to blow flies in human‐mediated ecosystems, or whether blow flies are able to shift to other resources to maintain sustainable populations and continue providing ecosystem services, such as pollination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rewilding of Fukushima's human evacuation zone

There is substantial interest in understanding the ecological impacts of the nuclear accidents at the Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants. However, population‐level data for large mammals have been limited, and there remains much speculation regarding the status of wildlife species in these areas. Using a network of remote cameras placed along a gradient of radiological contamination and human presence, we collected data on population‐level impacts to wildlife (that is, abundance and occupancy patterns) following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. We found no evidence of population‐level impacts in mid‐ to large‐sized mammals or gallinaceous birds, and show several species were most abundant in human‐evacuated areas, despite the presence of radiological contamination. These data provide unique evidence of the natural rewilding of the Fukushima landscape following human abandonment, and suggest that if any effects of radiological exposure in mid‐ to large‐sized mammals in the Fukushima Exclusion Zone exist, they occur at individual or molecular scales, and do not appear to manifest in population‐level responses.

Lyons, Phillip C.↗