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At least 145 records · Page 8

An Example of Risk Informed Design

NASA Engineering requested a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to compare the difference in the risk of Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) between different designs of a fluid assembly. They were concerned that the configuration favored by the design team was more susceptible to leakage than a second proposed design, but realized that a quantitative analysis to compare the risks between the two designs might strengthen their argument. The analysis showed that while the second design did help improve the probability of LOC, it did not help from a probability of LOM perspective. This drove the analysis team to propose a minor design change that would drive the probability of LOM down considerably. The analysis also demonstrated that there was another major risk driver that was not immediately obvious from a typical engineering study of the design and was therefore unexpected. None of the proposed alternatives were addressing this risk. This type of trade study demonstrates the importance of performing a PRA in order to completely understand a system's design. It allows managers to use risk as another one of the commodities (e.g., mass, cost, schedule, fault tolerance) that can be traded early in the design of a new system.

Banke, Rick↗

Application of remote sensing to study nearshore circulation

Immediate use of drogued buoy tracking was made when the Virginia State Highway Department requested assistance in selecting the best route for a new bridge-tunnel complex across the James River at Newport News. The result was that the Highway Department acted and chose a preferred route from several alternatives. It was also observed that the drogues did not follow the channel as predicted by the James River hydraulic model. This permitted telling the Navy why it is that part of their channel always silts up. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District asked help locate the best route and position of an ocean sewer outfall. Biological activities are focused primarily on delineating biological interaction between the marsh and continental shelf waters on Virginia's Eastern Shore. Information derived is helpful in categorizing the relative biological value of different marsh areas so that meaningful use and management decisions can be made concerning their eventual disposition.

Welch, C. S.↗

Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) Technology for NASA Earth Science

For NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as an interactive and integrated multidomain, multiscale, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It dynamically integrates: relevant Earth system models and simulations; other relevant models (e.g., related to the world's infrastructure); continuous and timely (including near real time and direct readout) observations (e.g., space, air, ground, over/underwater, Internet of Things (IoT), socioeconomic); long-time records; as well as analytics and artificial intelligence tools. Effective ESDTs enable users to run hypothetical scenarios to improve the understanding, prediction of and mitigation/response to Earth system processes, natural phenomena and human activities as well as their many interactions. An ESDT is a type of integrated information system that, for example, enables continuous assessment of impact from naturally occurring and/or human activities on physical and natural environments. AIST ESDT strategic goals are to: 1. Develop information system frameworks to provide continuous and accurate representations of systems as they change over time; 2. Mirror various Earth Science systems and utilize the combination of Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Thread, and state-of-the-art models to help predict the Earth’s response to various phenomena; 3. Provide the tools to conduct "what if" investigations that can result in actionable predictions. The AIST ESDT thrust is developing capabilities toward the development of future digital twins of the Earth or of subcomponents of the Earth. This will enable the development of an overarching framework that will integrate New Observing Strategies (NOS) to enable new observation measurements, i.e., multi-source, coordinated, dynamic and responsive to needs and requests defined by Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) that enable agile science investigations fusing and analyzing very large amounts of diverse data. NOS and ACF capabilities along with open access to various science, infrastructure and human data, interconnected modeling, data assimilation, simulations, surrogate modeling, high-performance computing and advanced visualization, will define a powerful framework that could be utilized for local, regional or global and/or thematic digital twins. This presentation will describe a general overview of the AIST ESDT vision including prior work done in the areas of NOS and ACF as well as current and upcoming ESDT projects.

Jacqueline Le Moigne↗

Evaluating Space Network (SN) scheduling operations concepts through statistical analysis

The Network Control Center (NCC) currently uses the NCC Data System (NCCDS) to schedule customer spacecraft communication requests for the Space Network (SN). The NCC/Request Oriented Scheduling Engine (NCC/ROSE), which implements an operational concept called flexible scheduling, is being tested as a potential replacement for the NCCDS scheduler in an effort to increase the efficiency of the NCC scheduling operations. This paper describes the high fidelity benchmark tests being conducted on NCC/ROSE, the evaluation techniques used to compare schedules, and the results of the tests. This testing will verify the increases in efficiency and productivity that can help the NCC meet the anticipated scheduling loads well into the next century.

Kwadrat, Carl↗

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Combustion Branch Website Development

The NASA combustion branch is a leader in developing and applying combustion science to focused aerospace propulsion systems concepts. It is widely recognized for unique facilities, analytical tools, and personnel. In order to better communicate the outstanding research being done in this Branch to the public and other research organization, a more substantial website was desired. The objective of this project was to build an up-to-date site that reflects current research in a usable and attractive manner. In order to accomplish this, information was requested from all researchers in the Combustion branch, on their professional skills and on the current projects. This information was used to fill in the Personnel and Research sections of the website. A digital camera was used to photograph all personnel and these photographs were included in the personnel section as well. The design of the site was implemented using the latest web standards: xhtml and external css stylesheets. This implementation conforms to the guidelines recommended by the w3c. It also helps to ensure that the web site is accessible by disabled users, and complies with Section 508 Federal legislation (which mandates that all Federal websites be accessible). Graphics for the new site were generated using the gimp (www.gimp.org) an open-source graphics program similar to Adobe Photoshop. Also, all graphics on the site were of a reasonable size (less than 20k, most less than 2k) so that the page would load quickly. Technologies such as Macromedia Flash and Javascript were avoided, as these only function on some clients which have the proper software installed or enabled. The website was tested on different platforms with many different browsers to ensure there were no compatibility issues. The website was tested on windows with MS IE 6, MSIE 5 , Netscape 7, Mozilla and Opera. On a Mac, the site was tested with MS IE 5 , Netscape 7 and Safari.

Bishop, Eric↗

[Network Design of the Spaceport Command and Control System]

I helped the Launch Control System (LCS) hardware team sustain the network design of the Spaceport Command and Control System. I wrote the procedure that will be used to satisfy an official hardware test for the hardware carrying data from the Launch Vehicle. I installed hardware and updated design documents in support of the ongoing development of the Spaceport Command and Control System and applied firewall experience I gained during my spring 2017 semester to inspect and create firewall security policies as requested. Finally, I completed several online courses concerning networking fundamentals and Unix operating systems.

Teijeiro, Antonio↗

Human Factors Assessment of Vibration Effects on Visual Performance During Launch

The Human Factors Assessment of Vibration Effects on Visual Performance During Launch (Visual Performance) investigation will determine visual performance limits during operational vibration and g-loads on the Space Shuttle, specifically through the determination of minimum readable font size during ascent using planned Orion display formats. Research Summary: The aim of the Human Factors Assessment of Vibration Effects on Visual Performance during Launch (Visual Performance) investigation is to provide supplementary data to that collected by the Thrust Oscillation Seat Detailed Technical Objective (DTO) 695 (Crew Seat DTO) which will measure seat acceleration and vibration from one flight deck and two middeck seats during ascent. While the Crew Seat DTO data alone are important in terms of providing a measure of vibration and g-loading, human performance data are required to fully interpret the operational consequences of the vibration values collected during Space Shuttle ascent. During launch, crewmembers will be requested to view placards with varying font sizes and indicate the minimum readable size. In combination with the Crew Seat DTO, the Visual Performance investigation will: Provide flight-validated evidence that will be used to establish vibration limits for visual performance during combined vibration and linear g-loading. o Provide flight data as inputs to ongoing ground-based simulations, which will further validate crew visual performance under vibration loading in a controlled environment. o Provide vibration and performance metrics to help validate procedures for ground tests and analyses of seats, suits, displays and controls, and human-in-the-loop performance.

Kritina Holden↗

The NASA Solar Probe mission - In situ determination of interplanetary out-of-the ecliptic and near-solar dust environments

The NASA Solar Probe mission will be one of the most exciting dust missions ever flown and will lead to a revolutionary advance in our understanding of dust within our solar system. Solar Probe will map the dust environment from the orbit of Jupiter (5 AU), to within 4 solar radii of the sun's center. The region between 0.3 AU and 4 Rs has never been visited before, so the ten days that the spacecraft spends during each (of the two) orbit is purely exploratory in nature. Solar Probe will also reach heliographic latitudes as high as about 15 to 28 deg above (below) the ecliptic on its trajectory inbound (outbound) to (from) the sun. This, in addition to the ESA/NASA Ulysses mission, will help determine the out-of-the-ecliptic dust environment. A post-perihelion burn will reduce the satellite orbital period to 2.5 years about the sun. A possible extended mission would allow data reception for two more revolutions, mapping out a complete solar cycle. Because the near-solar dust environment is not well understood (or is controversial at best), and it is very important to have better knowledge of the dust environment to protect Solar Probe from high velocity dust hits, we urgently request the scientific community to obtain further measurements of the nearsolar dust properties.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

Applying Costs, Risks and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) methodology to Engineering Support Request (ESR) prioritization

Given limited budget, the problem of prioritization among Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) with varied sizes, shapes, and colors is a difficult one. At the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), the recently developed 4-Matrix (4-M) method represents a step in the right direction as it attempts to combine the traditional criteria of technical merits only with the new concern for cost-effectiveness. However, the 4-M method was not adequately successful in the actual prioritization of ESRs for the fiscal year 1995 (FY95). This research identifies a number of design issues that should help us to develop better methods. It emphasizes that given the variety and diversity of ESR's one should not expect that a single method could help in the assessment of all ESR's. One conclusion is that a methodology such as Costs, Risks, and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) should be adopted. It also is clear that the development of methods such as 4-M requires input not only from engineers with technical expertise in ESR's but also from personnel with adequate background in the theory and practice of cost-effectiveness analysis. At KSC, ESR prioritization is one part of the Ground Support Working Teams (GSWT) Integration Process. It was discovered that the more important barriers to the incorporation of cost-effectiveness considerations in ESR prioritization lie in this process. The culture of integration, and the corresponding structure of review by a committee of peers, is not conducive to the analysis and confrontation necessary in the assessment and prioritization of ESR's. Without assistance from appropriately trained analysts charged with the responsibility to analyze and be confrontational about each ESR, the GSWT steering committee will continue to make its decisions based on incomplete understanding, inconsistent numbers, and at times, colored facts. The current organizational separation of the prioritization and the funding processes is also identified as an important barrier to the pursuit of cost-effectiveness. Perhaps the greatest barrier is that, at the working level, KSC's culture is so preoccupied with technical concerns that it seems almost oblivious to any cost concerns, let alone cost-effectiveness concerns. It is recommended that we must urgently begin to change that culture and seek a better balance between these two concerns.

Joglekar, Prafulla N.↗

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded again by six years, from October 1996 to April 2002, by interpolating 1000-ft sounding data to 100-ft increments. The Phase II developmental data set included observations for the cool season months of October 1996 to February 2007. The AMU calculated 68 candidate predictors from the XMR soundings, to include 19 stability parameters, 48 wind speed parameters and one wind shear parameter. Each day in the data set was stratified by synoptic weather pattern, low-level wind direction, precipitation and Richardson Number, for a total of 60 stratification methods. Linear regression equations, using the 68 predictors and 60 stratification methods, were created for the tool's three forecast parameters: the highest peak wind speed of the day (PWSD), 5-minute average speed at the same time (A WSD), and timing of the PWSD. For PWSD and A WSD, 30 Phase II methods were selected for evaluation in the verification data set. For timing of the PWSD, 12 Phase\I methods were selected for evaluation. The verification data set contained observations for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The data set was used to compare the Phase I and II forecast methods to climatology, model forecast winds and wind advisories issued by the 45 WS. The model forecast winds were derived from the 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the 12-km North American Mesoscale (MesoNAM) model. The forecast methods that performed the best in the verification data set were selected for the Phase II version of the tool. For PWSD and A WSD, linear regression equations based on MesoNAM forecasts performed significantly better than the Phase I and II methods. For timing of the PWSD, none of the methods performed significantly bener than climatology. The AMU then developed the Microsoft Excel and MIDDS GUls. The GUIs display the forecasts for PWSD, AWSD and the probability the PWSD will meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. Since none of the prediction methods for timing of the PWSD performed significantly better thanlimatology, the tool no longer displays this predictand. The Excel and MIDDS GUIs display forecasts for Day-I to Day-3 and Day-I to Day-5, respectively. The Excel GUI uses MesoNAM forecasts as input, while the MIDDS GUI uses input from the MesoNAM and Global Forecast System model. Based on feedback from the 45 WS, the AMU added the daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft to the tool, which is one of the parameters in the 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45 WS. In addition, the AMU expanded the MIDDS GUI to include forecasts out to Day-7.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Space Environments and Effects Program (SEE)

The need to preserve works and NASA documented articles is done via the collection of various Space Environments and Effects (SEE) related articles. (SEE) contains and lists the various projects that are ongoing, or have been conducted with the help of NASA. The goal of the (SEE) program is to make publicly available the environment technologies that are required to design, manufacture and operate reliable, cost-effective spacecraft for the government and commercial sectors. Of the many projects contained within the (SEE) program the Lunar-E Library and Spacecraft Materials Selector (SMS) have been selected for a more user friendly means to make the tools easily available to the public. This information which is still available required a person or entity to request access from a point of contact at NASA and wait for the requested bundled software DVD via postal service. Redesigning the material presentation and availability has been mapped to a single step process with faster turnaround time via Materials and Processes Technical Information System (MAPTIS) database. This process requires users to register and be verified in order to gain access to the information contained within. Aiding in the progression of making the software tools/documents available required a combination of specialized in-house data gathering software tools and software archeology.

Yhisreal-Rivas, David M.↗

Enabling a Voice Management System for Space Applications

The sustainable missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) envisioned for NASA’s Artemis program will require autonomous capabilities. Moreover, Artemis mission crews will need a means to efficiently interact with a spacecraft’s autonomous systems. This interaction can be facilitated by voice and speech communications because voice-based controls enable users to interact hands- and eyes-free, allowing the user to better focus on critical tasks. The goal of our project was to explore the knowledge and technology needed to successfully design effective Voice User Interfaces (VUIs) for autonomous systems utilizing Human Centered Design (HCD) principles. The focus of the human factors’ aspect of engineering, pays close attention to psychological and physiological principles in the development of autonomous crew operation systems. A main objective was to understand how a crew member, through voice interaction, could efficiently and intuitively communicate with a notional autonomous vehicle system manager. This project was a part of the NASA Moon to Mars eXploration Systems and Habitation (M2M X-Hab) 2020 Academic Innovation Challenge. The work from the BLiSS Team, at the University of Michigan, resulted in the design of a system persona, Diego, to which an astronaut may quickly build trust with autonomous systems, to alleviate known stressors on mental health expected during long duration space missions. Optimal software to facilitate integration of the system persona into a reference Lunar orbiting Gateway station was defined. Additionally, a Speech to Text (STT) system and a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that could be implemented in future missions was developed on an Internet of Things (IOT) platform. The Voice User Interface (VUI) design for the M2M X-Hab 2020 project leveraged previous technology developed by the BLiSS team to incorporate a voice-based interface into NASA’s Platform for Autonomous Systems (NPAS) software. This required technologies to convert voice to text, conduct semantic interpretations, and convert responses from the autonomous system to text and to speech; additionally, the spacecraft background noise environment was assessed, a noise mitigation technique was developed, and a relatable personality for the autonomous system was developed in order to facilitate human-like conversations. The success of our effort was largely due to the diversity of the team that included expertise in Space Systems Engineering, Human Computer Interaction, Aerospace Engineering, Computer Science, Biomedical Engineering, and Applied Physics. The diverse perspectives fostered elaborate discussions, resulting in the conception of three main subsystems: (1) User-System, (2) NPAS-System, and (3) Environment-System. The VUI was unique and had to be efficient and intuitive. For this project, 5 subteams were formed, each with a separate objective, Voice Design team, Background Noise Mitigation team, Software Integration team and Graphical User Interface team. The BLiSS team crafted a personality for the VUI to enable human-like conversation and drive user adoption and trust. User surveys were completed and used to help determine the required VUI system personality traits by capturing perspectives and expectations of prospective “Artemis Generation Astronauts”. To further simulate human-like conversations, the system had to be able to quickly interpret user speech and be able to integrate with NASA’s NPAS platform for quick and reliable information transfer. The outcomes of our research were: (1) a working prototype user interface, that is compatible with NASA’s NPAS platform; (2) software that demonstrates the ability of the VUI system to interpret user requests and respond appropriately; (3) the capability to implement fully expanded conversations between user and system using intuitive communication in four request categories; and (4) software and hardware recommendations that optimize the system’s ability to operate in a noisy environment. Our research has laid the foundation for the development of VUI’s for autonomy, and provides a baseline for future VUI developments.

Voice user interface↗

Auto Emission Testing

The photos show automobile engines being tested for nitrous oxide emissions, as required by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), at the Research and Engineering Division of Ford Motor Company, Dearborn. Michigan. NASA technical information helped the company develop a means of calculating emissions test results. Nitrous oxide emission readings vary with relative humidity in the test facility. EPA uses a standard humidity measurement, but the agency allows manufacturers to test under different humidity conditions, then apply a correction factor to adjust the results to the EPA standard. NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center developed analytic equations which provide a simple, computer-programmable method of correcting for humidity variations. A Ford engineer read a NASA Tech Brief describing the Dryden development and requested more detailed information in the form of a technical support package, which NASA routinely supplies to industry on request. Ford's Emissions Test Laboratory now uses the Dryden equations for humidity-adjusted emissions data reported to EPA.

Source record↗

IT Security Support for the Spaceport Command Control System Development

My job title is IT Security support for the Spaceport Command & Control System Development. As a cyber‐security analyst it is my job to ensure NASA's information stays safe from cyber threats, such as, viruses, malware and denial-of-service attacks by establishing and enforcing system access controls. Security is very important in the world of technology and it is used everywhere from personal computers to giant networks ran by Government agencies worldwide. Without constant monitoring analysis, businesses, public organizations and government agencies are vulnerable to potential harmful infiltration of their computer information system. It is my responsibility to ensure authorized access by examining improper access, reporting violations, revoke access, monitor information request by new programming and recommend improvements. My department oversees the Launch Control System and networks. An audit will be conducted for the LCS based on compliance with the Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA) and The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). I recently finished analyzing the SANS top 20 critical controls to give cost effective recommendations on various software and hardware products for compliance. Upon my completion of this internship, I will have successfully completed my duties as well as gain knowledge that will be helpful to my career in the future as a Cyber Security Analyst.

IT Security↗

Prioritization methodology for chemical replacement

Since United States of America federal legislation has required ozone depleting chemicals (class 1 & 2) to be banned from production, The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and industry have been required to find other chemicals and methods to replace these target chemicals. This project was initiated as a development of a prioritization methodology suitable for assessing and ranking existing processes for replacement 'urgency.' The methodology was produced in the form of a workbook (NASA Technical Paper 3421). The final workbook contains two tools, one for evaluation and one for prioritization. The two tools are interconnected in that they were developed from one central theme - chemical replacement due to imposed laws and regulations. This workbook provides matrices, detailed explanations of how to use them, and a detailed methodology for prioritization of replacement technology. The main objective is to provide a GUIDELINE to help direct the research for replacement technology. The approach for prioritization called for a system which would result in a numerical rating for the chemicals and processes being assessed. A Quality Function Deployment (QFD) technique was used in order to determine numerical values which would correspond to the concerns raised and their respective importance to the process. This workbook defines the approach and the application of the QFD matrix. This technique: (1) provides a standard database for technology that can be easily reviewed, and (2) provides a standard format for information when requesting resources for further research for chemical replacement technology. Originally, this workbook was to be used for Class 1 and Class 2 chemicals, but it was specifically designed to be flexible enough to be used for any chemical used in a process (if the chemical and/or process needs to be replaced). The methodology consists of comparison matrices (and the smaller comparison components) which allow replacement technology to be quantitatively compared in several categories, and a QFD matrix which allows process/chemical pairs to be rated against one another for importance (using consistent categories). Depending on the need for application, one can choose the part(s) needed or have the methodology completed in its entirety. For example, if a program needs to show the risk of changing a process/chemical one may choose to use part of Matrix A and Matrix C. If a chemical is being used, and the process must be changed; one might use the Process Concerns part of Matrix D for the existing process and all possible replacement processes. If an overall analysis of a program is needed, one may request the QFD to be completed.

Cruit, Wendy↗

Controller Strategies for Managing Air Traffic in High Altitude Arrival Sectors

Substantial increases in the volume of air traffic in the National Airspace System (NAS) are forecast for the next decade, with the number of passengers travelling on U.S. airlines expected to increase by as much as 60%. This increased demand on system capacity will be accompanied by increases in traffic complexity as air traffic service providers routinely accommodate user preferred routing requests. Changes to the NAS to meet these new demands are currently underway, including development of new decision support tools to aid controllers in monitoring and managing air traffic, and increased air-to-air and air-to-ground information exchange. Changes in roles and responsibilities of pilots and controllers in flight path management will accompany these changes in traffic patterns and information technology, however the ultimate responsibility for maintaining aircraft separation will remain with the air traffic controller. A thorough understanding of the methods controllers use to manage air traffic will help ensure that changes to the NAS are implemented in a way that maintains the controller's ability to separate aircraft as the system evolves. This presentation describes the strategies controllers use today to manage arrival traffic in its descent from cruise altitude to the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) boundary. Factors that increase the complexity of this task include the presence of overflight traffic, varying aircraft performance characteristics, winds aloft, ground speed variations with altitude, the need to merge arrival traffic into a single stream, and, when arrival traffic exceeds airport runway capacity, the added task of metering flow into the TRACON. Because of the limited information available to controllers to manage arrival traffic, their strategies are often driven by the need to reduce the task's complexity, which can result in de-optimized flight paths for individual aircraft (e.g., sub-optimal descent or speed profiles). Understanding these strategies and the cognitive demands that drive them will support a safe transition to a NAS that relies on enhanced technologies. In addition, it could enable system developers to identify opportunities for new automation-based procedures or information displays that could reduce the controller's workload and increase operational efficiency.

Smith, Nancy↗

Determining the Probability of Violating Upper-Level Wind Constraints for the Launch of Minuteman Ill Ballistic Missiles At Vandenberg Air Force Base

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman Ill ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze VAFB sounding data to determine the probability of violating (PoV) upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. The AMU suggested also including forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model. This would provide further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours, and help to improve the overall upper winds forecast on launch day.

Shafer, Jaclyn A.↗