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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Standardized Metadata for Human Pathogen/Vector Genomic Sequences

High throughput sequencing has accelerated the determination of genome sequences for thousands of human infectious disease pathogens and dozens of their vectors. The scale and scope of these data are enabling genotype-phenotype association studies to identify genetic determinants of pathogen virulence and drug/insecticide resistance, and phylogenetic studies to track the origin and spread of disease outbreaks. To maximize the utility of genomic sequences for these purposes, it is essential that metadata about the pathogen/vector isolate characteristics be collected and made available in organized, clear, and consistent formats. Here we report the development of the GSCID/BRC Project and Sample Application Standard, developed by representatives of the Genome Sequencing Centers for Infectious Diseases (GSCIDs), the Bioinformatics Resource Centers (BRCs) for Infectious Diseases, and the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), informed by interactions with numerous collaborating scientists. It includes mapping to terms from other data standards initiatives, including the Genomic Standards Consortium’s minimal information (MIxS) and NCBI’s BioSample/BioProjects checklists and the Ontology for Biomedical Investigations (OBI). The standard includes data fields about characteristics of the organism or environmental source of the specimen, spatial-temporal information about the specimen isolation event, phenotypic characteristics of the pathogen/vector isolated, and project leadership and support. By modeling metadata fields into an ontology-based semantic framework and reusing existing ontologies and minimum information checklists, the application standard can be extended to support additional project-specific data fields and integrated with other data represented with comparable standards. The use of this metadata standard by all ongoing and future GSCID sequencing projects will provide a consistent representation of these data in the BRC resources and other repositories that leverage these data, allowing investigators to identify relevant genomic sequences and perform comparative genomics analyses that are both statistically meaningful and biologically relevant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Using social media for actionable disease surveillance and outbreak management. A systematic literature review

Here, research studies show that social media may be valuable tools in the disease surveillance toolkit used for improving public health professionals’ ability to detect disease outbreaks faster than traditional methods and to enhance outbreak response. A social media work group, consisting of surveillance practitioners, academic researchers, and other subject matter experts convened by the International Society for Disease Surveillance, conducted a systematic primary literature review using the PRISMA framework to identify research, published through February 2013, answering either of the following questions: 1) Can social media be integrated into disease surveillance practice and outbreak management to support and improve public health? 2) Can social media be used to effectively target populations, specifically vulnerable populations, to test an intervention and interact with a community to improve health outcomes? Examples of social media included are Facebook, MySpace, microblogs (e.g., Twitter), blogs, and discussion forums. For Question 1, 33 manuscripts were identified, starting in 2009 with topics on Influenza-like Illnesses (n=15), Infectious Diseases (n = 6), Non-infectious Diseases (n=4), Medication and Vaccines (n=3), and Other (n=5). For Question 2, 32 manuscripts were identified, the first in 2000 with topics on Health Risk Behaviors (n=10), Infectious Diseases (n = 3), Non-infectious Diseases (n=9), and Other (n=10). The literature on the use of social media to support public health practice has identified many gaps and biases in current knowledge. Despite the potential for success identified in exploratory studies, there are limited studies on interventions and little use of social media in practice. However, information gleaned from the articles demonstrates the effectiveness of social media in supporting and improving public health and in identifying target populations for intervention. A primary recommendation resulting from the review is to identify opportunities that enable public health professionals to integrate social media analytics into disease surveillance and outbreak management practice.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

The SuperChip for microbial community structure, and function from all environments

We have the technology and capability to develop an all-in-one microarray that can provide complete information on a microbial community, including algae, protozoa, bacteria, archaea, fungi, viruses, antimicrobial resistance, biotoxins and functional activity. With lab-on-a-chip, nanotechnology integrating a variety of the latest methods for a large number of sample types (water, sediment, waste water, food, blood, etc.) it is possible to make a desktop instrument that would have universal applications. There are two major thrusts to this grand challenge that will allow us to take advantage of the latest biotechnological breakthroughs in real time. The first is a bioengineering thrust that will take advantage of the large multidisciplinary laboratories in developing key technologies. Miniaturization will reduce reagent costs and increase sensitivity and reaction kinetics for rapid turnaround time. New and evolving technologies will allow us to port the designs for state-of-the-art microarrays today to completely new nanotechnology inspired platforms as they mature. The second thrust is in bioinformatics to use our existing expertise to take advantage of the rapidly evolving landscape of bioinformatics data. This increasing capacity of the data set will allow us to resolve microbial species to greatly improved levels and identify functional genes beyond the hypothetical protein level. A cheap and portable assay would impact countless areas, including clean water technologies, emerging diseases, bioenergy, infectious disease diagnosis, climate change, food safety, environmental clean-up and bioterrorism. In my opinion it is possible but it will require a very large group of multidiscplenary scientists from multiple institutions crossing many international boundaries and funding over a 5-year period of more than $100 million. Given the impact that this SuperChip could have it is well worth the price!!!

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

GeoAI for Public Health

Infectious disease spread within the human population can be conceptualized as a complex system composed of individuals who interact and transmit viruses through spatio-temporal processes that manifest across and between scales. The complexity of this system ultimately means that the spread of infectious diseases is difficult to understand, predict, and respond to effectively. Research interest in GeoAI for public health has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources such as human mobility data, OpenStreetMap data, contact tracing data, symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce data, genomics data, and more. This data availability has resulted in a wide variety of data-driven solutions for infectious disease spread prediction which show potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities. This chapter (1) motivates the need for AI-based solutions in public health by showing the heterogeneity of human behavior related to health, (2) provides a brief survey of current state-of-the-art solutions using AI for infectious disease spread prediction, (3) describes a use-case of using large-scale human mobility data to inform AI models for the prediction of infectious disease spread in a city, and (4) provides future research directions and ideas.

Zufle, Andreas↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the effects of climate change on the cross-scale epidemiological dynamics of a fungal plant pathogen

The potential for climate change to exacerbate the burden of human infectious diseases is increasingly recognized, but its effects on infectious diseases of plants have received less attention. Understanding the impacts of climate on the epidemiological dynamics of plant pathogens is imperative, as these organisms play central roles in natural ecosystems and also pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food security. We use the fungal ‘flax rust’ pathogen (Melampsora lini) and its subalpine wildflower host Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) to investigate how climate change might affect the dynamics of fungal plant pathogen epidemics using a combination of empirical and modeling approaches. Our results suggest that climate change will initially slow transmission at both the within- and between-host scales. However, moderate resurgences in disease spread are predicted as warming progresses, especially if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase at its current pace. These findings represent an important step towards building a holistic understanding of climate effects on plant infectious disease that encompasses demographic, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes. A core result is that neglecting processes at any one scale of plant pathogen transmission may bias projections of climate effects, as climate drivers have variable and cascading impacts on processes underlying transmission that occur at different scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Flight Crew Health Stabilization Program

This document establishes the policy and procedures for the HSP and is authorized through the Director, Johnson Space Center (JSC). This document delineates the medical operations requirements for the HSP. The HSP goals are accomplished through an awareness campaign and procedures such as limiting access to flight crewmembers, medical screening, and controlling flight crewmember activities. NASA's Human Space Flight Program uses strategic risk mitigation to achieve mission success while protecting crew health and safety. Infectious diseases can compromise crew health and mission success, especially in the immediate preflight period. The primary purpose of the Flight Crew Health Stabilization Program (HSP) is to mitigate the risk of occurrence of infectious disease among astronaut flight crews in the immediate preflight period. Infectious diseases are contracted through direct person-to-person contact, and through contact with infectious material in the environment. The HSP establishes several controls to minimize crew exposure to infectious agents. The HSP provides a quarantine environment for the crew that minimizes contact with potentially infectious material. The HSP also limits the number of individuals who come in close contact with the crew. The infection-carrying potential of these primary contacts (PCs) is minimized by educating them in ways to avoid infections and avoiding contact with the crew if they are or may be sick. The transmission of some infectious diseases can be greatly curtailed by vaccinations. PCs are strongly encouraged to maintain updated vaccinations.

Johnston, Smith L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Moving Beyond Mortality: Development and Application of a Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) Endpoint for Hospital-Acquired Bacterial Pneumonia and Ventilator-Associated Bacterial Pneumonia

Abstract Background Hospital-acquired and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP) are frequently caused by multidrug-resistant organisms. Patient-centered endpoints in clinical trials are needed to develop new antibiotics for HABP/VABP. Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is a paradigm for the design, analysis, and interpretation of clinical trials based on a patient-centered, benefit-risk evaluation. Methods A multidisciplinary committee created an infectious diseases DOOR endpoint customized for HABP/VABP, incorporating infectious complications, serious adverse events, and mortality. We applied this to 2 previously completed, large randomized controlled trials for HABP/VABP. ZEPHyR compared vancomycin to linezolid and VITAL compared linezolid to tedizolid. For each trial, we evaluated the DOOR distribution and probability, including DOOR component and partial credit analyses. We also applied DOOR in subgroup analyses. Results In both trials, the HABP/VABP DOOR demonstrated similar overall clinical outcomes between treatment groups. In ZEPHyR, the probability that a participant treated with linezolid would have a more desirable outcome than a participant treated with vancomycin was 50.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 45.1%­−55.3%). In VITAL, the probability that a participant treated with tedizolid would have a more desirable outcome than a participant treated with linezolid was 48.7% (95% CI, 44.8%–52.6%). The DOOR component analysis revealed that participants treated with tedizolid had a less desirable outcome than those treated with linezolid when considering clinical response alone. However, participants with decreased renal function had improved overall outcomes with tedizolid. Conclusions The HABP/VABP DOOR provided more granular information about clinical outcomes than is typically presented in clinical trials. HABP/VABP trials would benefit from prospectively using DOOR.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biodiversity and Global Health: Intersection of Health, Security, and the Environment

One of the biggest consequences of large-scale environmental change is the loss of biodiversity. Recent studies predict a loss of 1 million species in the near future. Biodiversity loss and land use change through anthropogenic disturbance are known to affect disease exposure, disease severity, and disease impacts. It is becoming increasingly clear that biodiversity loss will lead to an increase in infectious diseases in certain regions. Changes in biodiversity may contain important signatures for prediction of infectious diseases and outbreaks. Here, we argue that areas of high or rapid biodiversity loss will be critical to monitor under the umbrella of global health security. Global Health Security consists of the actions and activities required to reduce the impact of public health events in populations living in different geographic regions and across international borders. Like infectious diseases, climate change and other causes of environmental changes do not respect international borders and are becoming more widespread in all parts of the world. Here, the relationships among biodiversity, climate and environmental changes, and pathogen prevalence are dynamic, context dependent, and complex. Accounting for this complexity requires the inclusion of the environment sector, presently missing, when evaluating the potential of global health security actions for mitigating disease risks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling Host-Pathogen Interactions in the Context of the Microenvironment: Three-Dimensional Cell Culture Comes of Age

Tissues and organs provide the structural and biochemical landscapes upon which microbial pathogens and commensals function to regulate health and disease. While flat two-dimensional (2-D) monolayers composed of a single cell type have provided important insight into understanding host-pathogen interactions and infectious disease mechanisms, these reductionist models lack many essential features present in the native host microenvironment that are known to regulate infection, including three-dimensional (3-D) architecture, multicellular complexity, commensal microbiota, gas exchange and nutrient gradients, and physiologically relevant biomechanical forces (e.g., fluid shear, stretch, compression). Here, a major challenge in tissue engineering for infectious disease research is recreating this dynamic 3-D microenvironment (biological, chemical, and physical/mechanical) to more accurately model the initiation and progression of host-pathogen interactions in the laboratory. Here we review selected 3-D models of human intestinal mucosa, which represent a major portal of entry for infectious pathogens and an important niche for commensal microbiota. We highlight seminal studies that have used these models to interrogate host-pathogen interactions and infectious disease mechanisms, and we present this literature in the appropriate historical context. Models discussed include 3-D organotypic cultures engineered in the rotating wall vessel (RWV) bioreactor, extracellular matrix (ECM)-embedded/organoid models, and organ-on-a-chip (OAC) models. Collectively, these technologies provide a more physiologically relevant and predictive framework for investigating infectious disease mechanisms and antimicrobial therapies at the intersection of the host, microbe, and their local microenvironments.

3-D↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceflight-Induced Changes in Microbial Virulence and the Impact to the Host Immune Response

Many microbial pathogens have repeatedly exhibited unexpected responses relevant to infectious disease when grown in microgravity and microgravity analogue environments, including changes in final cell concentration, biofilm production, stress resistance, antibiotic sensitivity, gene expression, host-pathogen interactions, and virulence. Notably, the classic foodborne pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium displayed increased virulence in animals when cultured in either the spaceflight analogue or true spaceflight environment. Recently, Serratia marcescens also was shown to increase virulence when cultured in the spaceflight environment. In parallel, astronaut studies have characterized a persistent spaceflight-induced dysregulation of the human immune system at multiple levels, which suggests an increased risk of infectious diseases. Moreover, astronauts have some degree of clinical infectious disease incidence. However, the contribution of the microgravity environment on host-pathogen interactions and potential for clinical disease remains understudied and poorly characterized. The goal of this study is to gain insight into the breadth of other medically significant microbial pathogens that may exhibit altered virulence and pathogenesis-related responses when cultured in spaceflight analogue conditions. Specifically, we are characterizing the effect of spaceflight analogue culture (Low Shear Modeled Microgravity/LSMMG) on microbial pathogenesis-related stress responses, in vitro host-pathogen interactions, gene expression, and virulence potential in animals using five important model bacterial pathogens, Salmonella enterica Enteritidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacia, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli. The information to date is providing a better understanding into the potential impact of microgravity on alterations in microbial virulence and associated infectious disease risk to crew health during spaceflight missions.

C M Ott↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceflight-Induced Changes in Microbial Virulence and the Impact to the Host Immune Response

Many microbial pathogen shave repeatedly exhibited unexpected responses relevant to infectious disease when grown in microgravity and microgravity analogue environments, including changes in final cell concentration, biofilm production, stress resistance, antibiotic sensitivity, gene expression, host-pathogen interactions, and virulence. Notably, the classic foodborne pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium displayed increased virulence in animals when cultured in either the spaceflight analogue or true spaceflight environment. Recently, Serratia marcescens also was shown to increase virulence when cultured in the spaceflight environment. In parallel, astronaut studies have characterized a persistent spaceflight-induced dysregulation of the human immune system at multiple levels, which suggests an increased risk of infectious diseases. Moreover, astronauts have some degree of clinical infectious disease incidence. However, the contribution of the microgravity environment on host-pathogen interactions and potential for clinical disease remains understudied and poorly characterized. The goal of this study is to gain insight into the breadth of other medically significant microbial pathogens that may exhibit altered virulence and pathogenesis-related responses when cultured in space flight analogue conditions. Specifically, we are characterizing the effect of spaceflight analogue culture (Low Shear Modeled Microgravity/LSMMG) on microbial pathogenesis-related stress responses, in vitro host-pathogen interactions, gene expression, and virulence potential in animals using five important model bacterial pathogens, Salmonella enterica Enteritidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacia, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli. Herein, we present data from one of these pathogens, the foodborne bacterium, S. enterica Enteritidis, which is closely related to S. enterica Typhimurium. Phenotypes evaluated included growth profiles, environmental stress responses(acid, oxidative, bile, and thermal stresses),and in vitro colonization of3-D biomimetic cultures of human intestinal tissue containing immune cells. Transcriptomic profiling and virulence studies are ongoing. We show that S. Enteritidis exhibited key alterations in pathogenic responses to LSMMG culture that suggest increased infection risk, including several responses which were different from those observed in the closely related pathovar S. Typhimurium. This information will provide critical mechanistic insight into the potential impact of microgravity on alterations in microbial virulence and associated infectious disease risk to crew health during spaceflight missions.

C M Ott↗
NASA NTRS2024

Spaceflight-Induced Changes in Microbial Virulence and the Impact to the Host Immune Response

Many microbial pathogen shave repeatedly exhibited unexpected responses relevant to infectious disease when grown in microgravity and microgravity analogue environments, including changes in final cell concentration, biofilm production, stress resistance, antibiotic sensitivity, gene expression, host-pathogen interactions, and virulence. Notably, the classic foodborne pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium displayed increased virulence in animals when cultured in either the spaceflight analogue or true spaceflight environment. Recently, Serratia marcescens also was shown to increase virulence when cultured in the spaceflight environment. In parallel, astronaut studies have characterized a persistent spaceflight-induced dysregulation of the human immune system at multiple levels, which suggests an increased risk of infectious diseases. Moreover, astronauts have some degree of clinical infectious disease incidence. However, the contribution of the microgravity environment on host-pathogen interactions and potential for clinical disease remains understudied and poorly characterized. The goal of this study is to gain insight into the breadth of other medically significant microbial pathogens that may exhibit altered virulence and pathogenesis-related responses when cultured in space flight analogue conditions. Specifically, we are characterizing the effect of spaceflight analogue culture (Low Shear Modeled Microgravity/LSMMG) on microbial pathogenesis-related stress responses, in vitro host-pathogen interactions, gene expression, and virulence potential in animals using five important model bacterial pathogens, Salmonella enterica Enteritidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacia, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli. Herein, we present data from one of these pathogens, the foodborne bacterium, S. enterica Enteritidis, which is closely related to S. enterica Typhimurium. Phenotypes evaluated included growth profiles, environmental stress responses(acid, oxidative, bile, and thermal stresses),and in vitro colonization of3-D biomimetic cultures of human intestinal tissue containing immune cells. Transcriptomic profiling and virulence studies are ongoing. We show that S. Enteritidis exhibited key alterations in pathogenic responses to LSMMG culture that suggest increased infection risk, including several responses which were different from those observed in the closely related pathovar S. Typhimurium. This information will provide critical mechanistic insight into the potential impact of microgravity on alterations in microbial virulence and associated infectious disease risk to crew health during spaceflight missions.

C.M. Ott↗
DOE OSTI2018

Lung health in era of climate change and dust storms

Highlights: • Dust storms provide a vital role on Earth. • The health impact of dust storms is principally determined by the particle size. • The immune system plays a vital role in dust exposure. • Association between dust and sarcoidosis has been proposed. • Prevention and reduction of particle exposure is of paramount importance. Dust storms are strong winds which lead to particle exposure over extensive areas. These storms influence air quality on both a local and global scale which lead to both short and long-term effects. The frequency of dust storms has been on the rise during the last decade. Forecasts suggest that their incidence will increase as a response to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Elderly people, young children, and individuals with chronic cardiopulmonary diseases are at the greatest risk for health effects of dust storms. A wide variety of infectious and non-infectious diseases have been associated with dust exposure. Influenza A virus, pulmonary coccidioidomycosis, bacterial pneumonia, and meningococcal meningitis are a few examples of dust-related infectious diseases. Among non-infectious diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, sarcoidosis and pulmonary fibrosis have been associated with dust contact. Here, we review two molecular mechanisms of dust induced lung disease for asthma and sarcoidosis. We can also then further understand the mechanisms by which dust particles disturb airway epithelial and immune cells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Microbiological Monitoring for the Constellation Program: Current Requirements and Future Considerations

Microbiological requirements for spaceflight are based on assessments of infectious disease risk which could impact crew health or mission success. The determination of risk from infectious disease is composed of several factors including (1) crew susceptibility, (2) crew exposure to the infectious disease agent, (3) the concentration of the infectious agent, and (4) the characteristics of the infectious agent. As a result of the Health Stabilization Program, stringent monitoring, and cleaning protocols, in-flight environmental microbial monitoring is not necessary for short-duration spaceflights. However, risk factors change for long-duration missions, as exemplified by the presence of medically significant organisms in the environments of both the Mir and International Space Station (ISS). Based upon this historical evidence, requirements for short duration usage aboard the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle and Lunar Lander Vehicle will not require in-flight monitoring; however, as mission duration increases with a Lunar Outpost, an ability to detect microbial hazard will be necessary. The nature of the detection requirements will depend on the maturity of technology in a rapidly evolving marketplace. Regardless, the hardware will still need to maximize information to discipline experts and the crew, while minimizing the size, mass, power consumption, and crew time usage. The refinement of these monitors will be a major goal in our efforts to travel successfully to Mars.

Ott, C. Mark↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Constructing rigorous and broad biosurveillance networks for detecting emerging zoonotic outbreaks

Determining optimal surveillance networks for an emerging pathogen is difficult since it is not known beforehand what the characteristics of a pathogen will be or where it will emerge. The resources for surveillance of infectious diseases in animals and wildlife are often limited and mathematical modeling can play a supporting role in examining a wide range of scenarios of pathogen spread. We demonstrate how a hierarchy of mathematical and statistical tools can be used in surveillance planning help guide successful surveillance and mitigation policies for a wide range of zoonotic pathogens. The model forecasts can help clarify the complexities of potential scenarios, and optimize biosurveillance programs for rapidly detecting infectious diseases. Using the highly pathogenic zoonotic H5N1 avian influenza 2006-2007 epidemic in Nigeria as an example, we determined the risk for infection for localized areas in an outbreak and designed biosurveillance stations that are effective for different pathogen strains and a range of possible outbreak locations. We created a general multi-scale, multi-host stochastic SEIR epidemiological network model, with both short and long-range movement, to simulate the spread of an infectious disease through Nigerian human, poultry, backyard duck, and wild bird populations. We chose parameter ranges specific to avian influenza (but not to a particular strain) and used a Latin hypercube sample experimental design to investigate epidemic predictions in a thousand simulations. We ranked the risk of local regions by the number of times they became infected in the ensemble of simulations. These spatial statistics were then complied into a potential risk map of infection. Finally, we validated the results with a known outbreak, using spatial analysis of all the simulation runs to show the progression matched closely with the observed location of the farms infected in the 2006-2007 epidemic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Editorial: Biological Engagement Programs: Reducing Threats and Strengthening Global Health Security Through Scientific Collaboration

It is often said about infectious diseases that a “threat anywhere is a threat everywhere,” and the recent outbreaks of Ebola in West Africa and Zika virus in South America have proven that pathogens know no borders. Not only are they transboundary, pathogens do not discriminate who they infect. In addition to the natural increase in emerging zoonotic infectious diseases worldwide due to changing environmental conditions and globalization, the use of infectious diseases as warfare agents is a threat in today’s world. Early detection remains one of the best ways to prevent small outbreaks becoming epidemics and pandemics. We find that an accurate diagnosis, detection, and reporting of diseases are important components of mitigating outbreaks, and biosurveillance remains the top tool in our toolbox. And while vaccines have been important for controlling more common infectious virus diseases, they are less feasible for less common diseases, emerging pathogens, and rapidly evolving microbes. Furthermore, due to globalization and increased travel, emigration, and migration, biosurveillance is critical throughout the world, not just in pockets of more developed regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Computational Models of Intergroup Competition and Warfare

This document reports on the research of Kenneth Letendre, the recipient of a Sandia Graduate Research Fellowship at the University of New Mexico. Warfare is an extreme form of intergroup competition in which individuals make extreme sacrifices for the benefit of their nation or other group to which they belong. Among animals, limited, non-lethal competition is the norm. It is not fully understood what factors lead to warfare. We studied the global variation in the frequency of civil conflict among countries of the world, and its positive association with variation in the intensity of infectious disease. We demonstrated that the burden of human infectious disease importantly predicts the frequency of civil conflict and tested a causal model for this association based on the parasite-stress theory of sociality. We also investigated the organization of social foraging by colonies of harvester ants in the genus Pogonomyrmex, using both field studies and computer models.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗