Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Fire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning
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Talissa Cota↗
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Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Fire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning
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Talissa Cota↗
Marin County Wildland Fires II: Improving Fire Suppression Modeling to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, CA
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Harrison Raine↗
Development of mechanistic, microstructure-informed BISON models for fission product-induced failure mechanisms in advanced nuclear fuels
The US continues to prioritize commercial deployment of advanced reactors—particularly those utilizing U-Zr metallic and TRISO particle fuels. Fission product-induced failure mechanisms for these systems include fuel–cladding chemical interaction in metallic fuel rods, which threatens cladding integrity, and Pd penetration in TRISO particles, which degrades SiC layer properties. Empirical models can be applied within the bounds of existing irradiation databases, but their utility is limited when considering new designs or investigating fundamental material behaviors. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program is therefore developing mechanistic models for these behaviors, which are expected to aid in fuel design, assist in development of failure mitigation strategies, and provide support for qualification and licensing. These efforts leverage multiscale capabilities to capture the microstructural features and processes that govern these behaviors. This talk summarizes past and ongoing efforts to develop and validate these models for the BISON fuel performance code.
FCCI↗
A reference model for scientific information interchange
This paper presents an overview of an Information Interchange Reference Model (IIRM) currently being developed by individuals participating in the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Panel 2, the Planetary Data Systems (PDS), and the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS). This is an ongoing research activity and is not an official position by these bodies. This reference model provides a framework for describing and assessing current and proposed methodologies for information interchange within and among the space agencies. It is hoped that this model will improve interoperability between the various methodologies. As such, this model attempts to address key information interchange issues as seen by the producers and users of space-related data and to put them into a coherent framework. Information is understood as the knowledge (e.g., the scientific content) represented by data. Therefore, concern is not primarily on mechanisms for transferring data from user to user (e.g., compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), wide-area networks, optical tape, and so forth) but on how information is encoded as data and how the information content is maintained with minimal loss or distortion during transmittal. The model assumes open systems, which means that the protocols or methods used should be fully described and the descriptions publicly available. Ideally these protocols are promoted by recognized standards organizations using processes that permit involvement by those most likely to be affected, thereby enhancing the protocol's stability and the likelihood of wide support.
Reich, Lou↗
A Compositional Relevance Model for Adaptive Information Retrieval
There is a growing need for rapid and effective access to information in large electronic documentation systems. Access can be facilitated if information relevant in the current problem solving context can be automatically supplied to the user. This includes information relevant to particular user profiles, tasks being performed, and problems being solved. However most of this knowledge on contextual relevance is not found within the contents of documents, and current hypermedia tools do not provide any easy mechanism to let users add this knowledge to their documents. We propose a compositional relevance network to automatically acquire the context in which previous information was found relevant. The model records information on the relevance of references based on user feedback for specific queries and contexts. It also generalizes such information to derive relevant references for similar queries and contexts. This model lets users filter information by context of relevance, build personalized views of documents over time, and share their views with other users. It also applies to any type of multimedia information. Compared to other approaches, it is less costly and doesn't require any a priori statistical computation, nor an extended training period. It is currently being implemented into the Computer Integrated Documentation system which enables integration of various technical documents in a hypertext framework.
Mathe, Nathalie↗
Low-Cost Sulfur Thermal Storage for Solar Industrial Process Heat Applications
Industrial process heat (IPH) is one of the largest energy demands in U.S., representing about 10% of all domestic energy consumption. Fuel costs to generate this industrial process heat are generally a top three cost for industry, a major component in American manufacturing competitiveness. Roughly 60% of US IPH demand (about 6,500 TBtu annually) falls in the medium-temperature range of 100–250 °C. While concentrated solar thermal (CST) technologies can provide a cost-effective source of heat in this temperature range, solar intermittency limits their adoption in industries that operate 24/7. Element 16 Technologies, Inc. developed a low-cost sulfur thermal energy storage (TES) technology to bridge this gap by capturing excess solar heat during the day and dispatching it reliably during non-solar hours. The core innovation is the use of sulfur, an abundant, industrial waste byproduct that costs ten times less than molten salt used in commercial TES systems. The overall goal of the project was to advance the design and development of molten sulfur TES to a manufacturing-relevant prototype stage for solar industrial process heat applications, while establishing and validating a realistic pathway to commercial success. Key tasks included corrosion and mechanical durability testing to identify cost-effective materials, design investigations using physics-based simulation tools, techno-economic evaluations of system lifetime costs, and pilot-scale testing for performance verification. Corrosion testing of steel alloys under cyclic molten sulfur conditions showed that austenitic stainless steels in the 300 series performed particularly well, with no structural degradation of welds or joints. Thermal cyclic testing of pilot sulfur TES units up to 1.5 MWh quantified charge/discharge rates, heat losses, round-trip efficiency and validated the system's capability to operate effectively under intermittent charging conditions. A techno-economic model, informed by sulfur TES performance model validated using pilot test data, showed that hybrid solar+sulfur TES+NG boiler systems are economically competitive with incumbent natural gas boilers for multiple locations in the southwest US. In summary, this project established molten sulfur TES as a technically viable pathway to improve economic competitiveness of American manufacturing by lowering the cost of solar industrial process heat.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Enhancing Drinking Water Quality Modeling: Leveraging Physics Informed Neural Networks for Learning with Imperfect Reaction Models and Partial Data
Chemical kinetics models, typically formulated as systems of ordinary or partial differential equations, are valuable tools for simulating drinking water quality. However, these models often face inaccuracies due to discrepancies between the laboratory and the real-world conditions, as well as limitations in experimental analytical methods, hindering the accurate representation of the true underlying chemical mechanisms. In this study, we propose a Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN), using the eXtreme Theory of Functional Connections, to improve the prediction of chemical concentrations over time. The PINN method accounts for imperfect chemical models and incorporates partial data to improve predictions. Focusing on reactions describing water disinfection residual and disinfectant byproduct formation, which are crucial for public health and regulatory compliance, we demonstrate that the PINN model is able to accurately predict the concentrations of chemical species across various pH values. Notably, the model extends its accuracy to predict concentrations of chemical species not originally included in its training data. The developed method can be extended to a variety of chemical systems, offering a wide array of potential applications.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Numerical modeling and experimental validation of low velocity impact of woven GFRP/CFRP composites
Low-velocity impact of 2D woven glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite laminates was studied experimentally and numerically. Hybrid laminates containing blocked layers of GFRP/CFRP/GFRP with all plies oriented at 0° were investigated. Relatively high impact energies were used to obtain full perforation of the laminate in a low-velocity impact setup. Numerical simulations were carried out using the in-house transient dynamics finite element code, Sierra/SM, developed at Sandia National Laboratories. A three-dimensional continuum damage model was used to describe the response of a woven composite ply. Two methods for handling delamination were considered and compared: (1) cohesive zone modeling and (2) continuum damage mechanics. The reduced model size achieved by omission of the cohesive zone elements produced acceptable results at reduced computational cost. Further, the comparison between different modeling techniques can be used to inform modeling decisions relevant to low velocity impact scenarios. The modeling was validated by comparing with the experimental results and showed good agreement in terms of predicted damage mechanisms and impactor velocity and force histories.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Hybrid Modeling for Testing Intelligent Software for Lunar-Mars Closed Life Support
Intelligent software is being developed for closed life support systems with biological components, for human exploration of the Moon and Mars. The intelligent software functions include planning/scheduling, reactive discrete control and sequencing, management of continuous control, and fault detection, diagnosis, and management of failures and errors. Four types of modeling information have been essential to system modeling and simulation to develop and test the software and to provide operational model-based what-if analyses: discrete component operational and failure modes; continuous dynamic performance within component modes, modeled qualitatively or quantitatively; configuration of flows and power among components in the system; and operations activities and scenarios. CONFIG, a multi-purpose discrete event simulation tool that integrates all four types of models for use throughout the engineering and operations life cycle, has been used to model components and systems involved in the production and transfer of oxygen and carbon dioxide in a plant-growth chamber and between that chamber and a habitation chamber with physicochemical systems for gas processing.
Malin, Jane T.↗
Remote Sensing of Above Cloud Aerosols
The direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols suspended in the atmosphere above clouds (ACA) are a highly uncertain component of both regional and global climate. Much of this uncertainty is observational in nature most orbital remote sensing algorithms were not designed to simultaneously retrieve aerosol and cloud optical properties in the same vertical column. Thus the climate modeling community has limited data to inform model development efforts, which encapsulate the current understanding of climate. Furthermore, field measurements have identified regions with consistent ACA, and regional simulations show that the radiative forcing may be significant. For this reason, there has been a recent push to develop the ability to determine ACA distribution, optical properties and cloud interactions, while also providing a means to validate models. Several algorithms have been created that utilize existing instruments for these purposes. However, the observational data sources, algorithm characteristics, geophysical assumptions and retrieved products from these methods are highly variable. This chapter is a review of these techniques, their uncertainties, and the associated validation efforts. We will also discuss the future of ACA remote sensing, both with regards to new instruments and the potential for new algorithms.
Aerosols↗
The Sensitivity of the Equatorial Pacific ODZ to Particulate Organic Matter Remineralization in A Climate Model Under Pre-Industrial Conditions
Marine oxygen plays a fundamental role in regulating the transfer of organic carbon and nutrients to their dissolved inorganic forms, serving as the terminal electron acceptor for heterotrophic respiration. Oxygen can become limiting to these processes in coastal and open-ocean oxygen deficient zones (ODZs). The maintenance of ODZs depends on the balance between physical processes such as ventilation and biogeochemical processes such as remineralization. These two processes act in opposing directions on ODZs, with ventilation responsible for transporting oxygen from the surface, where it is near saturation with the partial pressure of O2 in the atmosphere, to deeper oxygen-depleted layers, and remineralization acting to consume oxygen through biogeochemical processes such as microbial degradation throughout the water column. Remineralization is represented in all CMIP6 models, but the actual parameterizations, as well as their magnitude, are widely varying. In this study, we examine the sensitivity to remineralization of the equatorial Pacific ODZ O2 ol/kg) in a model; the NASA GISS Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM-G) embedded in the NASA-GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model. We find that increasing the remineralization rate shoals the ODZ onset depth (i.e. the regionally averaged upper bound of the ODZ), and decreases ODZ volume and regional-averaged thickness. Changes in biological consumption and vertical convergence of oxygen are identified as the primary contributors to changes in ODZ onset depth. ODZ thickness is mainly influenced by the shoaling of the bottom boundary of the ODZ, which decreases with maximum remineralization rate due to decreasing oxygen consumption and increasing horizontal oxygen convergence in deep waters. On the other hand, vertically-averaged ODZ area has a more complex, non-monotonic relationship with maximum remineralization rate. While these findings suggest an important role for remineralization in determining the shape of the ODZ in our model, the relative importance of remineralization vs. other physical parameterizations remains to be established. While our results reflect the structure of our ocean biogeochemical model, the relationship of remineralization to ODZ characteristics in other models should be examined to better inform model inter-comparisons.
Oxygen-deficient zone↗
Using NASA's Remote Sensing Datasets and Land Information System to Characterize Lightning Initiated Wildfires
Can we use modeled information of the land surface and characteristics of lightning beyond flash occurrence to increase the identification and prediction of wildfires? The goals of this study are to: combine observed cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes with real-time land surface model output; and compare data with areas where lightning did not start a wildfire to determine what land surface conditions, rainfall observations, and lightning characteristics were responsible for causing wildfires.
White, Kristopher↗
Alchemy: A Model-Based Approach for 2D to 3D Autonomous Nuclear System Design
Engineering design of nuclear power plant (NPP) piping and equipment systems frequently bypasses crucial 2D system planning, instead moving straight to 3D modeling. This often leads to designs that exceed building envelope constraints, forcing expensive and time-consuming redesigns. When 2D modeling is employed, it typically involves labor-intensive manual workflows that convert 2D drawings into 3D models, resulting in inefficiencies and errors across design iterations. These workflows further suffer from poor software interoperability and dependence on proprietary software ecosystems, thereby contributing to schedule delays and cost overruns. This paper presents Alchemy, an autonomous framework that transforms 2D system definitions into Industry Foundation Classes (IFC)-compliant 3D building information models (BIMs) for expediting nuclear facility design at the conceptual preliminary phase. Using a model-based approach, the framework treats the 2D system diagram as the central reference model employed to automatically generate all subsequent outputs, ensuring consistency between the system definition and the resulting physical design. A web-based interface enables engineers to define hierarchical system topologies including associated equipment, geometric properties, and connectivity requirements. A two-phase equipment layout optimization algorithm automatically computes collision-free spatial configurations within predefined building envelopes. An artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted pipe routing module then generates orthogonal, collision-free routing paths, allowing the user to select either an A* search-based method or an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO)-based method. All outputs are authored natively in IFC format, relying on open-source technologies and standardized formats in order to ensure extensibility and eliminate proprietary software dependencies. The proposed framework is validated on two representative pressurized-water reactor (PWR)-based case studies, for which it autonomously generates IFC-compliant 3D models in minutes, drastically reducing workflows that typically require hours of manual effort. The generated model demonstrates topologically correct equipment placement, physically plausible spatial relationships, and collision-free pipe routing consistent with known PWR loop configurations. This work represents a foundational step toward digital engineering for nuclear facility preliminary design, with future ongoing development targeting design code compliance and expanded system complexity.
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach
Background and Aims Tropical forests exchange more carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) with the atmosphere than any other terrestrial biome. Yet, uncertainty in the projected carbon balance over the next century is roughly three times greater for the tropics than other for ecosystems. Our limited knowledge of tropical plant physiological responses, including photosynthetic, to climate change is a substantial source of uncertainty in our ability to forecast the global terrestrial carbon sink. Methods Here, we used a meta-analytic approach, focusing on tropical photosynthetic temperature responses, to address this knowledge gap. Our dataset, gleaned from 18 independent studies, included leaf-level light-saturated photosynthetic (A sat ) temperature responses from 108 woody species, with additional temperature parameters (35 species) and rates (250 species) of both maximum rates of electron transport (J max ) and Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ). We investigated how these parameters responded to mean annual temperature (MAT), temperature variability, aridity and elevation, as well as also how responses differed among successional strategy, leaf habit and light environment. Key Results Optimum temperatures for A sat (T optA ) and J max (T optJ ) increased with MAT but not for V cmax (T optV ). Although photosynthetic rates were higher for ‘light’ than ‘shaded’ leaves, light conditions did not generate differences in temperature response parameters. T optA did not differ with successional strategy, but early successional species had ~4 °C wider thermal niches than mid/late species. Semi-deciduous species had ~1 °C higher T optA than broadleaf evergreen species. Most global modelling efforts consider all tropical forests as a single ‘broadleaf evergreen’ functional type, but our data show that tropical species with different leaf habits display distinct temperature responses that should be included in modelling efforts. Conclusions This novel research will inform modelling efforts to quantify tropical ecosystem carbon cycling and provide more accurate representations of how these key ecosystems will respond to altered temperature patterns in the face of climate warming.
Carter, Kelsey R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
Mapping tall shrub biomass in Alaska at landscape scale using structure-from-motion photogrammetry and lidar
Warming in arctic and boreal regions is increasing shrub cover and biomass. In southcentral Alaska, willow (Salix spp.) and alder (Alnus spp.) shrubs grow taller than many tree species and account for a substantial proportion of aboveground biomass, yet they are not individually measured as part of the operational Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. The goal of this research was to test methods for landscape-scale mapping of tall shrub biomass in upper montane and subalpine environments using FIA-type plot measurements (n = 51) and predictor variables from imagery-based structure-from-motion (SfM) and airborne lidar. Specifically, we compared biomass models constructed from imagery acquired by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV; ~1.7 cm pixels), imagery from the NASA Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal Airborne Imager (G-LiHT; ~3.1 cm pixels), and concomitant G-LiHT small-footprint lidar. Tall shrub biomass was most accurately predicted at 5 m resolution (R^2 = 0.81, RMSE = 1.09 kg/sq. m) using G-LiHT SfM color and structure variables. Lidar-only models had lower precision (R^2 = 0.74, RMSE = 1.26 kg/sq. m), possibly due to reduced model information content from variable multicollinearity or lower data density. Separate models for upper montane zones with trees and shrubs and subalpine zones with only shrubs were always chosen over single models based on minimization of Akaike's Information Criterion, indicating the need for variable sets robust to overhanging tree canopy. Decreasing point density from UAV (5000–8000 pts./sq. m) to the G-LiHT SfM point cloud (500–2000 pts./sq. m) had little impact on model fit, suggesting that high-resolution airborne imagery can extend SfM approaches well beyond line-of-sight restrictions for UAV platforms. Overall, our results confirmed that SfM from high-resolution imagery is a viable approach to estimate shrub biomass in the boreal region, especially when an existing lidar terrain model and local field calibration data are available to quantify uncertainty in the SfM point cloud and landscape-scale estimates of shrub biomass.
Michael Alonzo↗
Understanding drivers of oil and gas well integrity issues in the greater wattenberg area of Colorado
Well integrity is critically important to maintain to minimize the environmental impacts of oil and gas development and other subsurface energy operations. The Wattenberg Field of Colorado—a top producing field with >40,000 wells—has one of the most robust publicly reported well integrity programs in the country. Here, in this study, we analyzed annular pressure and annular-fluid geochemical test results collected from Wattenberg wells through the end of 2019 to characterize the frequency and spatial variability of integrity issues in the field and understand their drivers. Estimated frequencies of integrity issues among tested wells were 8.2-17.1% between 1955 and 2019 and 6.1-11.4% in 2019 alone. The frequency of integrity issues was nearly four times greater in wells located above the Longmont Wrench Fault Zone. Potential drivers of integrity issues were identified using ensemble decision tree models trained with a broad set of relevant information. Models show that well integrity issues are spatially clustered on regional and sub-regional scales and suggest the relatively high frequency of integrity issues observed is likely attributed to geologic factors. These findings are valuable for regulatory agencies and operators seeking to inform well integrity monitoring, plugging, and emissions reduction efforts and design future subsurface energy projects.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Neural nets with terminal chaos for simulation of non-deterministic patterns
Models for simulating some aspects of neural intelligence are presented and discussed. Special attention is given to terminal neurodynamics as a particular architecture of terminal dynamics suitable for modeling information flows. Applications of terminal chaos to information fusion as well as to planning and modeling coordination among neurons in biological systems are disussed.
Zak, Michail↗