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At least 145 records · Page 8

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗

Assessment of chemo-mechanical impacts of CO 2 sequestration on the caprock formation in Farnsworth oil field, Texas

This study evaluates the chemo-mechanical influence of injected CO 2 on the Morrow B sandstone reservoir and the upper Morrow shale caprock utilizing data from the inverted 5-spot pattern centered on Well 13-10A within the Farnsworth unit (FWU). This study also seeks to evaluate the integrity of the caprock and the long-term CO 2 storage capability of the FWU. The inverted 5-spot pattern was extracted from the field-scale model and tuned with the available field observed data before the modeling work. Two coupled numerical simulation models were utilized to continue the study. First, a coupled hydro-geochemical model was constructed to simulate the dissolution and precipitation of formation minerals by modeling three intra-aqueous and six mineral reactions. In addition, a coupled hydro-geomechanical model was constructed and employed to study the effects of stress changes on the caprock’s porosity, permeability, and ground displacement. The Mohr–Coulomb circle and failure envelope were used to determine caprock failure. In this work, the CO 2 -WAG injection is followed by the historical field-observed strategy. During the forecasting period, a Water Alternating Gas (WAG) injection ratio of 1:3 was utilized with a baseline bottom-hole pressure constraint of 5500 psi for 20 years. A post-injection period of 1000 years was simulated to monitor the CO 2 plume and its effects on the CO 2 storage reservoir and caprock integrity. The simulation results indicated that the impacts of the geochemical reactions on the porosity of the caprock were insignificant as it experienced a decrease of about 0.0003% at the end of the 1000-year post-injection monitoring. On the other hand, the maximum stress-induced porosity change was about a 1.4% increase, resulting in about 4% in permeability change. It was estimated that about 3.3% of the sequestered CO 2 in the formation interacted with the caprock. Despite these petrophysical property alterations and CO 2 interactions in the caprock, the caprock still maintained its elastic properties and was determined to be far from its failure.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Carbonated Brine Injection for a Pilot Site as a Low-Risk Geologic Carbon Storage Strategy: A Simulation Study

This technical report presents a preliminary study for CBI implementation in the Pena Creek pilot site in Dimmit County, Texas, targeting the Edwards Limestone Formation for SWD, in collaboration with NGL Energy Partners. The objective of this study is to find the conservative CO 2 molality for safe storage and potential risks for CBI at this pilot site. Geomodel was performed to get site-specific reservoir geology information. Reservoir modeling was performed to investigate dissolved CO 2 molality and pressure changes at relevant injection conditions. Wellbore corrosion and compatibility was discussed with corrosion modeling. Dissolved CO 2 long-term fate in the reservoir was examined with reactive transport modeling. This plan would set the scientific foundation as the initial step for future implementation in the field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep learning forecasts the spatiotemporal evolution of fluid-induced microearthquakes

Microearthquakes generated by subsurface fluid injection record the evolving stress state and permeability of reservoirs. Forecasting their spatiotemporal evolution is therefore critical for applications such as enhanced geothermal systems, carbon dioxide sequestration and other geoengineering applications. Here we propose a transformer neural network model that ingests hydraulic stimulation history and prior microearthquake observations to forecast four key quantities: cumulative microearthquake count, cumulative logarithmic seismic moment, and the 50th- and 95th-percentile extents of the microearthquake cloud. Applied to the EGS Collab Experiment 1 dataset, the model achieves R2 > 0.98 for the 1-s forecast horizon and R2 > 0.88 for the 15-s forecast horizon across all targets, and supplies uncertainty estimates through a learned standard deviation term. These accurate, uncertainty-quantified forecasts enable real-time inference of fracture propagation and permeability evolution, demonstrating the strong potential of deep-learning approaches to improve seismic-risk assessment and guide mitigation strategies in future fluid-injection operations.

Chung, Jaehong↗

Comparison of temperature adaptive calibration methods for laser induced fluorescence based fuel-in-oil instrument

Fuel dilution of engine oil (or fuel-in-oil, FiO) is an important issue as multiple and late-cycle fuel injection, integral to many combustion efficiency and emissions improvements (e.g., downsized boosted gasoline engines and catalyst thermal management) increases FiO rate. In addition to causing general wear and corrosion in engine due to decreased oil viscosity and pH buffering, FiO is also believed to cause destructive low speed pre-ignition (or super knock) in boosted SI engines. To understand the effects of engine operating conditions on the FiO rate, an optical diagnostic capable of measuring transient FiO on minute timescales was recently developed and demonstrated on a modified GM Ecotech engine system (Neupane et al., Applied Spectroscopy 2021). The measurement is based on adding a dye to the fuel and monitoring for its presence in oil via laser-induced fluorescence (LIF). The measured LIF signal is related to FiO concentration via pre-determined calibration factors using a multivariate classical least square (CLS) method.Since fluorescence quantum yield is a function of temperature, measured LIF intensity not only depends on FiO concentration but also oil temperature. To expand the applicability of the FiO diagnostic to transient oil-temperature conditions (e.g., cold start in practical engines), this study develops a method to account for oil-temperature variations. The effect of oil temperature (20°C - 95°C) on the LIF spectra of eight FiO samples ranging from ~0.8-15% was investigated. LIF intensities of the FiO samples decreased linearly with increasing temperature; the reductions being more significant at dye peaks. We develop a new calibration model (T-adaptive CLS) incorporating the temperature (T) effects on LIF intensity that enables simultaneous calculation of FiO and oil temperature. The improved FiO diagnostic with T-adaptive calibration is more robust, and applicable to varying oil-temperature conditions. For example, when strategies such as multiple/late fuel injections are applied to overcome cold-start instability due to use of low vaporization bio-based fuels such as ethanol, FiO rate is expected to be very high; the improved T-adaptive FiO diagnostic is hence relevant for engine- and fuel-system calibration and optimization. The diagnostic could also provide validation data for flow-field and spray interaction CFD models, further broadening the diagnostic’s utility for advancing engine technology and efficiency.

Neupane, Sneha↗

The METOP-A Orbit Acquisition Strategy and its LEOP Operational Experience

Europe's first polar-orbiting weather satellite, METOPA, was launched by a Soyuz launcher from Baikonur Cosmodrome on the 19th of October of 2006. The routine operations of METOP-A are conducted by EUMETSAT (European Organization for Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) in the frame of the European Polar System mission (EPS). The METOP-A Launch and Early Orbit Phase (LEOP) operations have been performed by ESA/ESOC. The Flight Dynamics Orbit Determination and Control team (OD&C) at ESOC was in charge of correcting the S/C orbit as delivered by the launcher in such a way that EUMETSAT would be able to acquire the reference orbit with a drift-stop manoeuvre approximately two weeks after a LEOP of 3 days and Hand-Over to the EUMETSAT Control Centre (EUMETSAT-CC) in Darmstadt, Germany. The various strict constraints and the short amount of time available for ESOC operations made this task challenging. Several strategies were prepared before launch and analysed during LEOP based on the achieved injection orbit. This paper presents the different manoeuvre strategies investigated and finally applied to acquire the operational orbit, reporting as well the details of its execution and final achieved state.

Merz, K.↗

Modeling the effect of MHD activity on runaway electron generation during SPARC disruptions

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities and runaway electrons (REs) interact in several ways, making it important to self-consistently model these interactions for accurate predictions of RE generation and the design of mitigation strategies, such as massive gas injection (MGI). Using M3D-C1 – an extended MHD code with a RE fluid model – we investigate the effects of 3-D nonlinear MHD activity, material injection, and 2-D axisymmetric vertical displacement events (VDEs) on RE evolution during disruptions on SPARC – a high-field, high-current tokamak designed to achieve a fusion gain Q > 1. Several cases, comprising different combinations of neon (Ne) and deuterium (D 2 ) injection, are considered. Here, our results demonstrate key effects that arise from the self-consistent RE + MHD coupling, such as an initial increase in RE generation due to MHD instability growth, decreased saturation energies of the m/n = 1/1 mode driving sawteeth-like activity, RE losses in stochastic magnetic fields, and subsequent RE confinement and plateau formation due to re-healing of flux surfaces. Large RE plateaus (>5 MA) are obtained with Ne-only injection (2-5 × 10 21 atoms), while combined D 2 + Ne injection (2 × 10 21 Ne atoms; 1.8 × 10 22 D 2 molecules) produces a lower RE current (<2 MA). With D 2 + Ne injection, a post thermal quench "cold" VDE terminates the RE beam, preventing a steady plateau. These simulations couple REs, 3-D MHD instabilities, MGI, and axisymmetric VDEs for the first time in SPARC disruption simulations and represent a crucial step in understanding RE generation and mitigation in high-current devices like SPARC.

Datta, Rishabh [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology ↗

A study to evaluate STS heads-up ascent trajectory performance employing a minimum-Hamiltonian optimization strategy

A study was conducted to evaluate the performance implications of a heads-up ascent flight design for the Space Transportation System, as compared to the current heads-down flight mode. The procedure involved the use of the Minimum Hamiltonian Ascent Shuttle Trajectory Evaluation Program, which is a three-degree-of-freedom moment balance simulation of shuttle ascent. A minimum-Hamiltonian optimization strategy was employed to maximize injection weight as a function of maximum dynamic pressure constraint and Solid Rocket Motor burnrate. Performance Reference Mission Four trajectory groundrules were used for consistency. The major conclusions are that for heads-up ascent and a mission nominal design maximum dynamic pressure value of 680 psf, the optimum solid motor burnrate is 0.394 ips, which produces a performance enhancement of 4293 lbm relative to the baseline heads-down ascent, with 0.368 ips burnrate solid motors and a 680 psf dynamic pressure constraint. However, no performance advantage exists for heads-up flight if the current Solid Rocket Motor target burnrate of 0.368 ips is used. The advantage of heads-up ascent flight employing the current burnrate is that Space Shuttle Main Engine throttling for dynamic pressure control is not necessary.

Sinha, Sujit↗

Analysis of gas turbine engines using water and oxygen injection to achieve high Mach numbers and high thrust

An analysis of gas turbine engines using water and oxygen injection to enhance performance by increasing Mach number capability and by increasing thrust is described. The liquids are injected, either separately or together, into the subsonic diffuser ahead of the engine compressor. A turbojet engine and a mixed-flow turbofan engine (MFTF) are examined, and in pursuit of maximum thrust, both engines are fitted with afterburners. The results indicate that water injection alone can extend the performance envelope of both engine types by one and one-half Mach numbers at which point water-air ratios reach 17 or 18 percent and liquid specific impulse is reduced to some 390 to 470 seconds, a level about equal to the impulse of a high energy rocket engine. The envelope can be further extended, but only with increasing sacrifices in liquid specific impulse. Oxygen-airflow ratios as high as 15 percent were investigated for increasing thrust. Using 15 percent oxygen in combination with water injection at high supersonic Mach numbers resulted in thrust augmentation as high as 76 percent without any significant decrease in liquid specific impulse. The stoichiometric afterburner exit temperature increased with increasing oxygen flow, reaching 4822 deg R in the turbojet engine at a Mach number of 3.5. At the transonic Mach number of 0.95 where no water injection is needed, an oxygen-air ratio of 15 percent increased thrust by some 55 percent in both engines, along with a decrease in liquid specific impulse of 62 percent. Afterburner temperature was approximately 4700 deg R at this high thrust condition. Water and/or oxygen injection are simple and straightforward strategies to improve engine performance and they will add little to engine weight. However, if large Mach number and thrust increases are required, liquid flows become significant, so that operation at these conditions will necessarily be of short duration.

Henneberry, Hugh M.↗

Emission Characteristics of A P and W Axially Staged Sector Combustor

Emission characteristics of a three-cup P and W Axially Controlled Stoichiometry (ACS) sector combustor are reported in this article. Multiple injection points and fuel staging strategies are used in this combustor design. Pilot-stage injectors are located on the front dome plate of the combustor, and main-stage injectors are positioned on the top and bottom of the combustor liners downstream. Low power configuration uses only pilot-stage injectors. Main-stage injectors are added to high power configuration to help distribute fuel more evenly and achieve overall lean burn yielding very low NOx emissions. Combustion efficiencies at four ICAO LTO conditions were all above 99%. Three EINOx emissions correlation equations were developed based on the experimental data to describe the NOx emission trends of this combustor concept. For the 7% and 30% engine power conditions, NOx emissions are obtained with the low power configuration, and the EINOx values are 6.16 and 6.81. The high power configuration was used to assess 85% and 100% engine power NOx emissions, with measured EINOx values of 4.58 and 7.45, respectively. The overall landing-takeoff cycle NOx emissions are about 12% relative to ICAO CAEP/6 level.

low NOx comubstor↗

NOx Emissions Characteristics and Correlation Equations of Two P and W's Axially Staged Sector Combustors Developed Under NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project

Two P&W (Pratt & Whitney)'s axially staged sector combustors have been developed under NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project. One combustor was developed under ERA Phase I, and the other was developed under ERA Phase II. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions characteristics and correlation equations for these two sector combustors are reported in this article. The Phase I design was to optimize the NOx emissions reduction potential, while the Phase II design was more practical and robust. Multiple injection points and fuel staging strategies are used in the combustor design. Pilot-stage injectors are located on the front dome plate of the combustor, and main-stage injectors are positioned on the top and bottom (Phase I) or on the top only (Phase II) of the combustor liners downstream. Low power configuration uses only pilot-stage injectors. Main-stage injectors are added to high power configuration to help distribute fuel more evenly and achieve lean burn throughout the combustor yielding very low NOx emissions. The ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) landing-takeoff NOx emissions are verified to be 88 percent (Phase I) and 76 percent (Phase II) under the ICAO CAEP/6 (Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection 6th Meeting) standard, exceeding the ERA project goal of 75 percent reduction, and the combustors proved to have stable combustion with room to maneuver on fuel flow splits for operability.

sector combustor test↗

Direct Injection of Biomineralizing Agents to Restore Injectivity and Wellbore Integrity

Summary In this manuscript, we describe the second of two field demonstrations of microbially induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) performed in a failed waterflood injection well in Indiana. In 2012, fracture-related flow pathways developed in the wellbore cement, causing injection water to bypass the oil-bearing formation and enter a high-permeability sandstone thief zone, thereby substantially decreasing injection pressure. In the first field demonstration, our study team characterized the well's mode of failure and successfully applied MICP to decrease flow through the defective cement. However, because the MICP treatment was conducted using a bailer delivery system, the degree of permeability reduction achievable was not adequate to fully restore the historic injection pressure of 1,400 psi at 1 gal/min. For the second field demonstration (reported herein), a direct injection system was developed that substantially increased the injection volume of MICP-promoting fluids. Two strategies were implemented to produce more ureolytic microbes: resuspending concentrated frozen cells immediately before injection and scaling up the bioreactor growth capacity. Multiple pulses of microbes and urea-calcium media were pumped into a string of 1-in.-diameter tubing separated by brine spacers and injected continuously at a flow rate of 3.4 to 1.4 gal/min. During the third day of injection, an injection pressure of 1,384 psi at a flow rate of 1.4 gal/min was achieved, and the experiment was terminated. This study demonstrates that MICP can be successfully used in large-volume applications where the time frame for the delivery of reactants is limited. This finding has significant relevance for commercialization of the MICP biotechnology in the oil and gas industry.

Engineering↗

Load Margin Constrained Moving Target Defense against False Data Injection Attacks

Cyber physical security of power systems with high penetration of renewable generation has attracted attention from researchers. One critical issue is that cyber-physical attacks, disguised as uncertain renewable generation, can target conventional power system state estimation (SE). Moving target defense (MTD) is a promising defense strategy to detect stealthy false data injection (FDI) attacks against SE. However, all existing studies myopically perturb the reactance of transmission lines equipped with distributed flexible AC transmission system (D-FACTS) devices without adequately considering the system voltage stability. Exacerbated by the renewable generation uncertainty, existing MTD may cause voltage instability when the power grid is under stress. To address this issue, we propose a novel MTD framework that explicitly considers system voltage stability by using continuation power flow. We utilize the sensitivity matrix of power injection to line impedance, on which an optimization problem for maximizing load margin is formulated. This framework is validated on the IEEE 14-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system, in which net load redistribution attacks are launched by sophisticated attackers. Steady-state simulations and dynamic simulations on PSS/E show the effectiveness of the proposed framework in circumventing the voltage instability while maintaining the detection effectiveness of MTD. The impact of the proposed method on attack detection effectiveness is also revealed.

Zhang, Hang↗

Feedback Control Strategy for Transient Stability Application

Power systems are subjected to a wide range of disturbances during daily operations. Severe disturbances, such as a loss of a large generator, a three-phase bolted fault on a generator bus, or a loss of a transmission line, can lead to the loss of synchronism of a generator or group of generators. The ability of a power system to maintain synchronism during the few seconds after being subjected to a severe disturbance is known as transient stability. Most of the modern methods of controlling transient stability involve special protection schemes or remedial action schemes. These special protection schemes sense predetermined system conditions and take corrective actions, such as generator tripping or generation re-dispatch, in real time to maintain transient stability. Another method is the use of a real-time feedback control system to modulate the output of an actuator in response to a signal. This paper provides a fundamental evaluation of the use of feedback control strategies to improve transient stability in a power system. An optimal feedback control strategy that modulates the real power injected and absorbed by distributed energy-storage devices is proposed. Its performance is evaluated on a four-machine power system and on a 34-machine reduced-order model of the Western North American Power System. The result shows that the feedback control strategy can increase the critical fault clearing time by 60%, thereby improving the transient stability of the power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Heavy-Duty Mixed-Controlled Compression Ignition: Fuel Effects and Ducted Fuel Injection.

This project is focused on developing advanced combustion strategies for mixing-controlled compression ignition (MCCI, i.e., diesel-cycle) engines that are synergistic with renewable and/or unconventional fuels in a manner that enhances domestic energy security, economic competitiveness, and environmental quality. During this reporting period, the two focus areas were ducted fuel injection (DFI) and surrogate diesel fuels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Elastic-wave sensitivity-guided adaptive seismic survey design for cost-effective monitoring of geological carbon storage

Effective seismic monitoring is essential for verifying CO₂ containment, detecting potential leakage, and optimizing operational decisions in geologic carbon storage. Here, this study presents a time-adaptive, elastic-wave sensitivity-guided framework for designing cost-effective seismic monitoring layouts for tracking CO₂ plume migration. The method is based on elastic-wave sensitivity analysis, which quantifies how variations in subsurface properties impact seismic wavefields. Two complementary design strategies are developed: one based on selecting a fixed number of seismic sources (Method A), and the other based on selecting source–receiver pairs contributing to a fixed fraction of cumulative elastic-wave sensitivity energy (Method B). The optimization workflow to identify source–receiver configurations with the highest detection potential is demonstrated using a hypothetical GCS scenario at the Kimberlina site in California using simulations of elastic-wave sensitivity data at multiple post-injection timesteps. Results show that both strategies adapt to evolving plume geometries and wavefield sensitivities, with Method B offering broader spatial coverage and Method A ensuring simpler deployment. This framework enables site-specific, cost-effective, and risk-informed seismic survey designs, enhancing the ability to monitor CO₂ migration over time in evolving geological environments

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Managing Subsurface Pressure Buildup and Interference in Commercial-Scale CO 2 Storage Project with Proximal Injection Wells

Large-scale decarbonization using carbon capture and storage (CCS) is likely to involve many commercial-scale CO 2 storage projects located in close proximity to each other. This close proximity raises concerns over pressure interference among the storage projects. Pressure interference between injection and storage efforts can reduce the practicable CO 2 storage resource and force wells to inject CO 2 at a lower rate to avoid the fracture pressure thresholds per United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI well regulations to preserve injection and confining zone integrity and potentially mitigate against inducing seismic activity. These analyses employ numerical full-physics reservoir modeling to evaluate how pressure buildup fronts and CO 2 plumes evolve under commercial-scale injection volumes of CO 2 in which multiple storage sites located in close proximity occur in tandem. The simulation models mimic injection at pseudo basin-scale and assume homogeneous saline formation(s) as storage targets with a pair of upper and lower homogeneous seal layer/s. These analyses specifically investigate the efficacy of two basin-wide reservoir pressure management strategies in addressing the technical challenges associated with pressure buildup and CO 2 plume commingling. The strategies explored include: 1) enlarging the area of injection well spacing (WS) and 2) storing CO 2 in a stacked sequence (SSS) of saline formations compared to a single formation. The storage and confining zones properties assumed were held common across the scenarios, unless specified otherwise. Analyses results show that after injecting 4 million tons per year for 30 years using 4 separate wells (each injecting 1 million metric tons per year), the radius of CO 2 plume extends to a mere 3 km or less from injection wells. Meanwhile, the radius of pressure buildup ranges on the order of tens to a few hundreds of kilometers, depending on the magnitude of pressure buildup threshold that one would use to define the front. CO 2 plume commingling from different injection wells appears to occur 50 years post-injection, especially under scenarios with narrowly spaced (i.e., < 5 km apart) injection well locations. Findings from sensitivity cases on the well spacing suggest that storage formations modeled would require different well spacing to avoid fracture pressure thresholds. For instance, modeled storage formations with high fracture gradients (i.e., 0.8 psi/ft) would need less than 5–km well spacing, whereas those with lower fracture gradients (i.e., 0.7 psi/ft) would need approximately 20–km well spacing, based on assumed modeling parameters. Under stacked injection, the pressure challenges (described above) still exist but are more alleviated due to distributing the same injection volume across more available reservoir volume. These analyses demonstrate that stacked-sequence storage can effectively address the challenges, while still providing the same target CO 2 storage volumes and allowing a large number of storage projects to be deployed in the same basin by better utilizing the available storage resource across different reservoir depths. Among cases modeled, the resulting pressure buildup front is most suppressed when each storage project distributes injection volumes over several wells, each of which injects a portion of the total CO 2 across the stacked sequence. This strategy results in the smallest CO 2 aerial footprint amongst scenarios evaluated but also shows the largest reduction in the pressure buildup at the top of perforation at the injection wells (upwards of approximately 42 percent compared to the commercial-scale single-formation storage), the result of which is crucial to maintain caprock integrity. The findings presented by this research draw attention to the importance of greater coordination among storage operators and regulatory stakeholders to foster the upscaling and deployment of CCS. These analyses provide insights into required decision-making when considering multi-project deployment in a shared basin. Because these analyses evaluate a very specific geologic situation, they bear further investigations across other geologic situations.

42 ENGINEERING↗