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DOE OSTI2026

Shadow molecular dynamics for flexible multipole models

Shadow molecular dynamics provide an efficient and stable atomistic simulation framework for flexible charge models with long-range electrostatic interactions. Shadow molecular dynamics simulations are driven by approximate “shadow” Born–Oppenheimer potentials for which the exact charges and forces are directly accessible without relying on costly (and approximate) iterative solvers. While previous implementations have been limited to atomic monopole charge distributions, we extend this approach to flexible multipole models. We derive detailed expressions for the shadow energy functions, potentials, and force terms, explicitly incorporating monopole–monopole, dipole–monopole, and dipole–dipole interactions. In our formulation, both atomic monopoles and atomic dipoles are treated as extended dynamical variables alongside the propagation of the nuclear degrees of freedom. We demonstrate that introducing the additional dipole degrees of freedom preserves the stability and accuracy previously seen in monopole-only shadow molecular dynamics simulations. In addition, we present a shadow molecular dynamics scheme where the monopole charges are held fixed while the dipoles remain flexible. Our extended shadow dynamics provide a framework for stable, computationally efficient, and versatile molecular dynamics simulations involving long-range interactions between flexible multipoles. This is of particular current interest in combination with machine-learned interatomic potentials, including long-range electrostatic interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Machine learning for energy-water nexus: challenges and opportunities

Modeling the interactions of water and energy systems is important to the enforcement of infrastructure security and system sustainability. To this end, recent technological advancement has allowed the production of large volumes of data associated with functioning of these sectors. We are beginning to see that statistical and machine learning techniques can help elucidate characteristic patterns across these systems from water availability, transport, and use to energy generation, fuel supply, and customer demand, and in the interdependencies among these systems that can leave these systems vulnerable to cascading impacts from single disruptions. In this paper, we discuss ways in which data and machine learning can be applied to the challenges facing the energy-water nexus along with the potential issues associated with the machine learning techniques themselves. We then survey machine learning techniques that have found application to date in energy-water nexus problems. We conclude by outlining future research directions and opportunities for collaboration among the energy-water nexus and machine learning communities that can lead to mutual synergistic advantage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Altered morphology and diffusivity of water confined in MXenes: Machine learning–accelerated computations combined with experiments

Nanoconfined water exhibits unique properties compared to bulk water due to limited quantities, frustrated hydrogen bonding, and surface interactions, which are fundamental for energy storage and transport applications. We integrate machine learning–accelerated ab initio molecular dynamics with x-ray diffraction (XRD) and inelastic neutron scattering (INS) to systematically analyze the thermodynamic and dynamic behavior of water confined between functionalized (-F, -O, and -OH) two-dimensional (2D) Ti 3 C 2 T x MXene layers. As water intercalates between layers, the interlayer spacing exhibits layer-dependent staging characteristics. The water polarization can be flipped by the count and morphology of intercalated molecules interacting with MXene surface groups, resulting in varying electrostatic potential profiles. On the basis of interfacial electrostatic potential, hydrogen bond lifetime, and molecular orientation, we establish a linear combination of exponential model describing water diffusivity. These computational insights align well with experimental x-ray and neutron measurements, suggesting strategies for tuning water morphology and transport by tailoring MXene surface chemistry and water content for electrochemical energy storage and nanofluidic applications.

Tang, Jiawei [Southeast Univ., Nanjing (China)] (O↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning methods for probabilistic locked-mode predictors in tokamak plasmas

A rotating tokamak plasma can interact resonantly with the external helical magnetic perturbations, also known as error fields. This can lead to locking and then to disruptions. We leverage machine learning (ML) methods to predict the locking events. We use a coupled third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation model to represent the interaction of the magnetic perturbation and the plasma rotation with the error field. This model is sufficient to describe qualitatively the locking and unlocking bifurcations. Here, we explore using ML algorithms with the simulation data and experimental data, focusing on the methods that can be used with sparse datasets. These methods lead to the possibility of the avoidance of locking in real-time operations. We describe the operational space in terms of two control parameters: the magnitude of the error field and the rotation frequency associated with the momentum source that maintains the plasma rotation. The outcomes are quan- tified by order parameters that completely characterize the state, whether locked or unlocked. We use unsupervised ML methods to classify locked/unlocked states and note the usefulness of a certain normalization of the order parameters. Three supervised ML classifiers are used in suite to estimate the probability of locking in the region of control parameter space with hysteresis, i.e., the set of control parameters for which both locked and unlocked states can exist. The results show that a neural network gives the best estimate of the locking probability. An analogy of the present locking model with the van der Waals equation of state is also provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

KRAS4a and KRAS4b show distinct lipid-dependent regulation of RAS-RAF membrane dynamics

KRAS4a and KRAS4b are important regulators of signaling, and their interactions with the plasma membrane are dynamic and influenced by lipid composition. KRAS 4a and 4b have nearly identical globular domains but differ in their membrane-associated hyper variable region (HVR). The functional distinctions between these isoforms remain unclear, particularly with regards to their dependence on specific lipids and the membrane environment. Previous work showed that the membrane orientation of KRAS4b affects its ability to bind to RAF kinase RBDCRD and that the KRAS–RBDCRD complex adopts different poses on the membrane as well as influences the size and composition of the lipid environment. To model differences between KRAS 4a and 4b protein–lipid interactions, we extended the Multiscale Machine-Learned Modeling Infrastructure (MuMMI) to incorporate continuum simulations in the grand canonical ensemble, enabling sampling across macroscopic, coarse-grained, and all-atom resolutions. Using this framework, we systematically altered PIP2 concentrations, KRAS 4a versus 4b, and RAF RBDCRD complexation to assess impacts on membrane–protein interactions and dynamics. Our results reveal that reducing PIP2 shifts and broadens the membrane orientational preference of both KRAS 4b and 4a, with stronger effects on 4b HVR localization versus 4a. We demonstrate that with depletion of the strong negatively charged PIP2 lipid, the less charged phosphatidylserine replaces PIP2. Our findings highlight similarities and distinctions in the dynamics and lipid dependency of KRAS isoforms and suggest that ordering of the local lipid composition by HVRs is a shared property and key modulator of RAS-mediated signaling at the plasma membrane.

Biological and medical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learns to Predict the Stability of Highly Diverse Multi-planetary Systems

Machine learning has proven to be an invaluable tool for characterizing the stability of planets in simplified planetary systems. In this work, we investigate the performance of a machine learning classifier on tightlypacked systems containing a rich diversity of planets, from Earths to Jupiters. Using information derived from short numerical simulations about a planet’s early orbital evolution and its relationship with the most massive planets in the system, we train a random forest classifier to predict instability with a > 88 percent accuracy. Our classifier relies on relative planet masses and the standard deviation of eccentricity for much of its predictive power. Most misclassified planets lie along a multi-dimensional boundary between stable and unstable planets, indicating that their early orbital evolution is ambiguous. The major reason for misclassification in this work is timescale: because our classifier uses information from only the first 137 years of simulation data, it is blind to late time interactions that cause or prevent instability. Machine learning methods like those utilized in this work provide powerful tools to complement numerical simulations across a wide range of planetary architectures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine-Learning Analysis of Radiative Decays to Dark Matter at the LHC

The search for weakly interacting matter particles (WIMPs) is one of the main objectives of the High Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC). In this work we use Machine-Learning (ML) techniques to explore WIMP radiative decays into a Dark Matter (DM) candidate in a supersymmetric framework. The minimal supersymmetric WIMP sector includes the lightest neutralino that can provide the observed DM relic density through its co-annihilation with the second lightest neutralino and lightest chargino. Moreover, the direct DM detection cross section rates fulfill current experimental bounds and provide discovery targets for the same region of model parameters in which the radiative decay of the second lightest neutralino into a photon and the lightest neutralino is enhanced. This strongly motivates the search for radiatively decaying neutralinos which, however, suffers from strong backgrounds. We investigate the LHC reach in the search for these radiatively decaying particles by means of cut-based and ML methods and estimate its discovery potential in this well-motivated, new physics scenario. We demonstrate that using ML techniques would enable access to most of the parameter space unexplored by other searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Toward Urban Water Security: Broadening the Use of Machine Learning Methods for Mitigating Urban Water Hazards

Due to the complex interactions of human activity and the hydrological cycle, achieving urban water security requires comprehensive planning processes that address urban water hazards using a holistic approach. However, the effective implementation of such an approach requires the collection and curation of large amounts of disparate data, and reliable methods for modeling processes that may be co-evolutionary yet traditionally represented in non-integrable ways. In recent decades, many hydrological studies have utilized advanced machine learning and information technologies to approximate and predict physical processes, yet none have synthesized these methods into a comprehensive urban water security plan. In this paper, we review ways in which advanced machine learning techniques have been applied to specific aspects of the hydrological cycle and discuss their potential applications for addressing challenges in mitigating multiple water hazards over urban areas. We also describe a vision that integrates these machine learning applications into a comprehensive watershed-to-community planning workflow for smart-cities management of urban water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Reduced-order modeling through machine learning and graph-theoretic approaches for brittle fracture applications

Typically, thousands of computationally expensive micro-scale simulations of brittle crack propagation are needed to upscale lower length scale phenomena to the macro-continuum scale. Running such a large number of crack propagation simulations presents a significant computational challenge, making reduced-order models (ROMs) attractive for this task. Here, the ultimate goal of this research is to develop ROMs that have sufficient accuracy and low computational cost so that these upscaling simulations can be readily performed. However, constructing ROMs for these complex simulations presents its own challenge. Here, we present and compare four different approaches for reduced-order modeling of brittle crack propagation in geomaterials. These methods rely on machine learning (ML) and graph-theoretic algorithms to approximate key aspects of the brittle crack problem. These methods also incorporate different physics-based assumptions in order to reduce the training requirements while maintaining accurate physics as much as possible. Results from the ROMs are directly compared against a high-fidelity model of brittle crack propagation. Further, the strengths and weaknesses of the ROMs are discussed, and we conclude that combining smart physics-informed feature engineering with highly trainable ML models provides the best performance. The ROMs considered here have computational costs that are orders-of-magnitude less than the cost associated with high-fidelity physical models while maintaining good accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

GLUE Code: A framework handling communication and interfaces between scales

Many scientific applications are inherently multiscale in nature. Such complex physical phenomena often require simultaneous execution and coordination of simulations spanning multiple time and length scales. This is possible by combining expensive small-scale simulations (such as molecular dynamics simulations) with larger scale simulations (such continuum limit/hydro solvers) to allow for considerably larger systems using task and data parallelism. However, the granularity of the tasks can be very large and often leads to load imbalance. Traditionally, we use approximations to streamline the computation of the more costly interactions and this introduces trade-offs between simulation cost and accuracy. In recent years, the available computational power and the advances in machine learning have made computing these scale-bridging interactions and multiscale simulations more feasible. One driving application has been plasma modeling in inertial confinement fusion (ICF), which is fundamentally multiscale in nature. This requires deep understanding of how to extrapolate microscopic information into macroscopically relevant scales. For example, in ICF one needs an accurate understanding of the connection between experimental observables and the underlying microphysics. The properties of the larger scales are often affected by the microscale behavior incorporated usually into the equations of state and ionic and electronic transport coefficients (Liboff, 1959; Rinderknecht et al., 2014; Rosenberg et al., 2015; Ross et al., 2017). Instead of incorporating this information using reliable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, one often needs to use theoretical models, due to the inability of MD to reach engineering scales (Glosli et al., 2007; Marinak et al., 1998). One approach to resolve this issue is by coupling two MD simulations of different scales via force interpolation, e.g., the AdResS method (Krekeler et al., 2018; Nagarajan et al., 2013). Another approach, which we will pursue in the scope of this work, is by enabling scale bridging between MD simulations and meso/macro-scale models through the development and support of application programming interfaces that these different applications can interact through.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

CORN (Crop Optimization Realized through Neuralnets)

Traditional models of predicting plant traits are limited because they often rely on linear assumptions that do not fully capture the complexity of biological interactions and DNA-based markers which are static across environments. This project generated a set of RNA-based data from large multi-environment field trials and combined it with advanced machine learning techniques to account for these complex interactions and improve the accuracy of predictions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dependence of Convective Cloud Microphysical Properties on Environmental Conditions during the TRACER and ESCAPE Field Campaigns: A Synergistic Approach of Observations, Machine Learning and Parcel Models

The sensitivity of convective clouds to aerosols and their interactions with environment, combined with limited observational constraints in parameterizations, introduces significant uncertainties in atmospheric models. Here, this study investigates the dependence of convective cloud microphysical properties on environmental conditions using a synergistic approach that combines unique observations from the TRACER and ESCAPE field campaigns, machine learning techniques, and parcel model simulations with a super-droplet microphysics scheme. A random forest algorithm identifies in-situ vertical velocity (w), temperature (T), and surface fine-mode aerosol mass concentration as the three most important environmental conditions influencing cloud properties including liquid water content (LWC), number concentration for particles with D max < 50 μm (N c ,<50), 50 μm ≤ D max ≤ 3000 μm (N c,50–3000 ), and droplet effective diameter (D e ). Results show that LWC, N c,<50 , and N c,50–3000 significantly increase with w in updrafts. Across w bins, as T decreases, LWC, D e , and N c,50–3000 increase, while N c,<50 decreases, which are closely linked to the distance above cloud bases. Warmer cloud bases yield higher LWC, greater N c,50–3000 , and smaller N c,<50 , while polluted environments produce greater N c,<50 . Parcel model simulations successfully replicate these observed dependencies. The simulation results indicate that warmer cloud bases enhance condensation generating larger droplets, and differences in droplet sizes are then amplified through collision-coalescence, resulting in a greater N c,50–3000 . Polluted conditions result in a greater N c,<50 primarily due to enhanced cloud condensation nuclei activation despite increased collision-coalescence rates compared to pristine conditions. This study provides observed quantitative patterns characterizing cloud microphysical properties as a function of key environmental parameters, offering valuable constraints for improving physics parameterizations and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Investigating Microtopographic and Soil Controls on a Mountainous Meadow Plant Community Using High-Resolution Remote Sensing and Surface Geophysical Data

Our study aims to explore the microtopographic controls that dictate the heterogeneity of plant communities in a mountainous floodplain-hillslope system, using remote sensing and surface geophysical techniques. Working within a lower montane floodplain-hillslope study site (750 m × 750 m) in the Upper Colorado River Basin, we developed a new data fusion framework, based on machine learning and feature engineering, that exploits remote sensing optical and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to estimate the distribution of key plant meadow communities at submeter resolution. We collected surface electrical resistivity tomography data to explore the variability in soil properties along a floodplain-hillslope transect at 0.50-m resolution and extracted LiDAR-derived metrics to model the rapid change in microtopography. Furthermore, we investigated the covariability among the estimated plant community distributions, soil information, and topographic metrics. Results show that our framework estimated the distribution of nine plant communities with higher accuracy (87% versus 80% overall; 85% versus 60% for shrubs) compared to conventional classification approaches. Analysis of the covariabilities reveals a strong correlation between plant community distribution, soil electric conductivity, and slope, indicating that soil moisture is a primary control on heterogeneous spatial distribution. At the same time, microtopography plays an important role in creating particular ecosystem niches for some of the communities. Such relationships could be exploited to provide information about the spatial variability of soil properties. This highly transferable framework can be employed within long-term monitoring to capture community-specific physiological responses to perturbations, offering the possibility of bridging local plot-scale observations with large landscape monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning for DUNE Supernova Trigger

One of the major scientific goals of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is to detect and measure the neutrino flux from galactic core-collapse supernovae. These neutrinos, which exist in the low energy range of up to a few tens of MeV and are responsible for carrying away over 99% of the gravitational binding energy of the supernova, provide an opportunity to study the end of life evolution of massive stars, as well as unique properties and interactions of neutrinos. Because galactic supernovae are expected to occur only on the timespan of every few decades, it is crucial that DUNE is able to detect supernova neutrino interactions when they occur. However, detecting these supernova interactions requires sifting through a large amount of data, and DUNE detectors require a trigger to signal when supernova neutrino events occur. Machine learning provides a potential approach to creating this trigger. This project generates ADC and ground truth images of neutrino interactions in a LArTPC detector as simulated by the Model of Argon Reaction Low Energy Yields (MARLEY) to be used for machine learning. The eventual goal of this work is to facilitate DUNE s detection of supernova neutrino interactions by building a machine learning pipeline that will train the trigger algorithm.

Damish, Stephanie↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning for DUNE Supernova Trigger

Damish, Stephanie↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Combined DFT, Energy Decomposition, and Data Analysis Approach to Investigate the Relationship Between Noncovalent Interactions and Selectivity in a Flexible DABCOnium/Chiral Anion Catalyst System

Developing strategies to study reactivity and selectivity in flexible catalyst systems has become an important topic of research. Herein, we report a combined experimental and computational study aimed at understanding the mechanistic role of an achiral DABCOnium cofactor in a regio- and enantiodivergent bromocyclization reaction. In this study, it was found that electron-deficient aryl substituents enable rigidified transition states via an anion–π interaction with the catalyst, which drives the selectivity of the reaction. In contrast, electron-rich aryl groups on the DABCOnium result in significantly more flexible transition states, where interactions between the catalyst and substrate are more important. An analysis of not only the lowest-energy transition state structures but also an ensemble of low-energy transition state conformers via energy decomposition analysis and machine learning was crucial to revealing the dominant noncovalent interactions responsible for observed changes in selectivity in this flexible system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship

The relationship between cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and liquid water path (LWP) is highly uncertain yet crucial for determining the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) on Earth's radiation budget. The N d -LWP relationship is examined using a machine learning (ML) random forest model applied to five years of satellite data at grid resolutions ranging from 10° to 0.05° in 12 distinct regions. In the subtropics, the shape of the N d -LWP relationship switches from an inverted-V at 1° grid-resolution to an “M” shape at 0.1° resolution with decreased $\frac{\textrm{dln⁡LWP}}{\textrm{dln⁡}N_d}$ sensitivity. Tropical and midlatitude regions generally show a more positive sensitivity. Cloud sampling and filtering also influence this slope, wherein the exclusion of thin clouds, as commonly performed to reduce retrieval uncertainty, leads to strongly negative sensitivity across all regions. Precipitation is primarily responsible for driving the strength of the sensitivity, with strong positive slopes in raining clouds and negative and/or neutral responses found in non-raining clouds. A new method to compute radiative forcing from the ML model shows a robust Twomey radiative forcing across all regions and grid resolutions. However, LWP and cloud fraction adjustments to the radiative forcing, which are ∼50 % or smaller than the Twomey effect, decrease to negligible values with higher spatial resolution data. As Earth system models move toward higher spatial resolutions in the future, evaluating the LWP and CF adjustment contributions to the radiative forcing budget at these finer resolutions will be essential for evaluation and model development.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗