Results for “Joint distribution” — Page 8

DOE OSTI2024

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time-Constrained Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem in Urban E-Commerce Delivery

Electric vehicle routing problems can be particularly complex when recharging must be performed mid-route. In some applications, such as e-commerce parcel delivery truck routing, however, mid-route recharging may not be necessary because of constraints on vehicle capacities and the maximum allowed time for delivery. In this study, we develop a mixed-integer optimization model that exactly solves such a time-constrained capacitated vehicle routing problem, especially of interest for e-commerce parcel delivery vehicles. We compare our solution method with an existing metaheuristic and carry out exhaustive case studies considering four U.S. cities—Austin, TX; Bloomington, IL; Chicago, IL; and Detroit, MI—and two vehicle types: conventional vehicles and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In these studies we examine the impact of vehicle capacity, maximum allowed travel time, service time (dwelling time to physically deliver the parcel), and BEV range on system-level performance metrics, including vehicle miles traveled (VMT). We find that the service time followed by the vehicle capacity plays a key role in the performance of our approach. We assume an 80-mi BEV range as a baseline without mid-route recharging. Our results show that the BEV range has a minimal impact on performance metrics because the VMT per vehicle averages around 72 mi. In a case study for shared-economy parcel deliveries, we observe that VMT could be reduced by 38.8% in Austin if service providers were to operate their distribution centers jointly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Oceanographic Conditions. 2007 - 2040. North Slope Alaska.

Complete representations of oceanographic conditions require spatial and temporal information about the significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp), wind speed, wind direction, wave direction, water level, salinity, and temperature. This data develops location-independent typologies to reduce the number of boundary conditions needed to assess nearshore oceanographic environments in both a Historical (2007-2019) and Future (2020-2040) timespan along the Alaskan North Slope. Wave information for both time spans were generated from WaveWatch III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE simulations forced by wind conditions from reanalysis data (e.g., ASRv2 and ERA5) for the historical simulations while projected conditions were obtained from downscaled GFDL-CM3 forced under RCP8.5 conditions. Salinity was generated from GOFS 3.1 for the years between 2008-2015 and skin temperature of the ocean was obtained from ASRv2 reanalysis data for the years between 2007-2016. To identify generalized oceanographic typologies, K-means clustering was applied to the energy-weighted joint-probability distribution of Hs and Tp at six sites along the North Slope of Alaska. Distributions of wave and wind direction, wind speed, and water level associated with locaiton-indepndent centroids were assigned single values to describe a reduced order, typological rendition of offshore oceanographic conditions. These final typologies and their constituent data are provided here and can be used to evaluate the change in ocean energy over the next two decades in response to climate change and provide insight into expected consequences such as coastal erosion and flooding. A full assessment of the findings and techniques developed can be found in: Eymold, W.K., Flanary, C., Erikson, L., Nederhoff, K., Chartrand, C.C., Jones, C., Kasper, J., and Bull, D.L. Typological Representation of the Offshore Oceanographic Environment along the Alaskan North Slope. Continental Shelf Research (2022). 10.1016/j.csr.2022.104795

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation Tools for Characterizing Stress Distribution in Laser Welded Dissimilar Joints

This project focuses on developing a thermo-metallurgical-mechanical modeling method to accurately predict the microstructural evolution and residual stress in laser welding between dissimilar metals, such as HSLA steel and high carbon equivalent (CE) gear steel. The method leverages a comprehensive material database to model the temperature and rate dependent phase transformations, along with their associated effects on material properties, such as thermal expansion and flow stress, throughout the welding process. A key innovation is the incorporation of phase transformation and phase-specific properties, which enhances the accuracy of residual stress predictions. The mixture material in the fusion zone due to the dissimilar metals will also be addressed in the numerical model. This is especially critical in scenarios involving phase transformations in the fusion zone and heat-affected zone (HAZ), where the phase changes can induce substantial residual stress variations. The material database has been generated using JMatPro. The modeling approach is implemented through a custom User Material (UMAT) subroutine, executed with the commercial finite element software Abaqus.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation Tools for Characterizing Stress Distribution in Laser Welded Dissimilar Joints

This project focuses on developing a thermo-metallurgical-mechanical modeling method to accurately predict the microstructural evolution and residual stress in laser welding between dissimilar metals, such as HSLA steel and high carbon equivalent (CE) gear steel. The method leverages a comprehensive material database to model the temperature and rate dependent phase transformations, along with their associated effects on material properties, such as thermal expansion and flow stress, throughout the welding process. A key innovation is the incorporation of phase transformation and phase-specific properties, which enhances the accuracy of residual stress predictions. The mixture material in the fusion zone due to the dissimilar metals will also be addressed in the numerical model. This is especially critical in scenarios involving phase transformations in the fusion zone and heat-affected zone (HAZ), where the phase changes can induce substantial residual stress variations. The material database has been generated using JMatPro. The modeling approach is implemented through a custom User Material (UMAT) subroutine, executed with the commercial finite element software Abaqus.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Melni Line Splice Report

Melni Technologies LLC has developed a line splice technology that can be 3D printed and promises market improvements in the form of lower cost and superior mechanical properties. The new 35 kV line splice design is working its way through go/no-go testing to validate the design and hit project milestones. This report provides an initial high potential (HIPOT) testing result for a go/no-go design approval decision. The test resulted in a “go” decision.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic Field Sensing via Acoustic Sensing Fiber with Metglas® 2605SC Cladding Wires

Magnetic field sensing has the potential to become necessary as a critical tool for long-term subsurface geophysical monitoring. The success of distributed fiber optic sensing for geophysical characterization provides a template for the development of next generation downhole magnetic sensors. In this study, Sentek Instrument’s picoDAS is coupled with a multi-material single mode optical fiber with Metglas® 2605SC cladding wire inclusions for magnetic field detection. The response of acoustic sensing fibers with one and two Metglas® 2605SC cladding wires was evaluated upon exposure to lateral AC magnetic fields. An improved response was demonstrated for a sensing fiber with in-cladding wire following thermal magnetic annealing (~400 °C) under a constant static transverse magnetic field (~200 μT). A minimal detectable magnetic field of ~500 nT was confirmed for a sensing fiber with two 10 μm cladding wires. The successful demonstration of a magnetic field sensing fiber with Metglas® cladding wires fabricated via traditional draw processes sets the stage for distributed measurements and joint inversion as a compliment to distributed fiber optic acoustic sensors.

Dejneka, Zach (ORCID:0000000179415708)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reference Site Condition Datasets for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. Further information on the datasets and how they were created can be found in: Biglu, M., M. Hall, E. Lozon, S. Housner. 2024. Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). NREL/TP-5000-89897. The data are also available at: https://github.com/FloatingArrayDesign/SiteConditions The content of each dataset is as follows: _NOW23_wind.txt: Hourly NOW-23 wind data up to a height of 400 meter. _metocean_1hr.txt: Hourly time series including wind, wave, surface current and temperature data. _Summary.xlsx: Metocean data, including extreme values, joint probability distributions and monthly statistics. _usSEABED_soil.csv: Extract of the usSEABED database for this specific site. _bathymetry_200m.txt (and 500m, 1000m): Gridded seabed depth data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS1972

Millimeter-wavelengths propagation studies

The various meteorological parameters that influence millimeter wavelength satellite-to-ground space diversity links are summarized. Space diversity propagation statistics obtained using the 15.3 GHz down-link on ATS-5 are presented. The radiometric temperature as well as attenuation of the satellite signal was recorded for correlation purposes. Both statistics of individual storm events and cumulative statistics have been analyzed yielding single site and joint fade distributions, correlation between attenuation experienced at the two receiving terminals, and correlation between path radiometric temperatures observed at the two receiving terminals. These data indicate that the use of space diversity is indeed effective in improving the reliability of millimeter wavelength satellite-to-ground communication links.

Hodge, D. B.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The number of stable points of an infinite-range spin glass memory

A rigorous asymptotic expression for the number of stable points of an infinite-range spin glass with independently identically distributed (i.i.d) zero-mean gaussian exchange interactions is discussed. The result also applies tot he number of stable points of a Hopfield Memory (a kind of associative memory) when the memory connections are i.i.d. zero-mean gaussians. The result is that the number of stable points is asymptotic to a constant slightly larger than 1 times 2 to a power slightly larger thann/4, where n is the number of spins in the glass, or the length of the n-tuples to be remembered by the memory. The answer is easily derived using simple asymptotic techniques from an exact expression for the probability that an arbitrary plus or minus 1 n-tuple of spins is a fixed point. This expression is obtained from the fact that any distribution of joint zero-mean gaussians of given covariances is specified solely by these covariances. This is a far shorter derivation of the result than those existing.

Posner, E. C.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Transport of passive scalars in a turbulent channel flow

A direct numerical simulation of a turbulent channel flow with three passive scalars at different molecular Prandtl numbers is performed. Computed statistics including the turbulent Prandtl numbers are compared with existing experimental data. The computed fields are also examined to investigate the spatial structure of the scalar fields. The scalar fields are highly correlated with the streamwise velocity; the correlation coefficient between the temperature and the streamwise velocity is as high as 0.95 in the wall region. The joint probability distributions between the temperature and velocity fluctuations are also examined; they suggest that it might be possible to model the scalar fluxes in the wall region in a manner similar to the Reynolds stresses.

Kim, John↗

NASA NTRS1987

Transport of passive scalars in a turbulent channel flow

A direct numerical simulation of a turbulent channel flow with three passive scalars at different molecular Prandtl numbers is performed. Computed statistics including the turbulent Prandtl numbers are compared with existing experimental data. The computed fields are also examined to investigate the spatial structure of the scalar fields. The scalar fields are highly correlated with the streamwise velocity; the correlation coefficient between the temperature and the streamwise velocity is as high as 0.95 in the wall region. The joint probability distributions between the temperature and velocity fluctuations are also examined; they suggest that it might be possible to model the scalar fluxes in the wall region in a manner similar to the Reynolds stresses.

Kim, John↗

NASA NTRS1988

Heat transport in the marine atmospheric boundary layer during an intense cold air outbreak

The generation of the virtual heat flux in the convective MABL associated with the January 28, 1986 intense cold air airbreak offshore of the Carolinas is studied. A technique based on the joint frequency distribution of the virtual potential temperature and vertical motion (Mahrt and Paumier, 1984) is used. The results suggest that, if buoyancy is mainly driven by the temperature flux, the physical processes for generating buoyancy flux are about the same for boundary layers over land and ocean, even with different convective regimes.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

NASA NTRS1989

Bivariate conditional sampling of buoyancy flux during an intense cold-air outbreak

The joint frequency distribution technique was used to analyze buoyancy fluxes in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) for the cloud street regime noted during the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment. It is found that for the lower half of the MABL, the buoyancy flux is mainly generated by the rising thermals and the sinking compensating ambient air, and is mainly consumed by the entrainment and detrainment of thermals, penetrative convection, and the entrainment from the MABL top. If the buoyancy flux is primarily driven by the temperature flux, these buoyancy-flux generating processes should be the same for the lower boundary layers over land and ocean. The results of the scale analysis of the buoyancy flux agree well with those obtained for mesoscale cellular convection during the Air-Mass Transformation Experiment.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗