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At least 145 records · Page 8

A Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

This conference abstract describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violatioas.The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean end peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Crawford, Winifred↗

Developing a Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

This conference presentation describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Lambert, WInifred↗

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗

Delta 2 Explosion Plume Analysis Report

A Delta II rocket exploded seconds after liftoff from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) on 17 January 1997. The cloud produced by the explosion provided an opportunity to evaluate the models which are used to track potentially toxic dispersing plumes and clouds at CCAFS. The primary goal of this project was to conduct a case study of the dispersing cloud and the models used to predict the dispersion resulting from the explosion. The case study was conducted by comparing mesoscale and dispersion model results with available meteorological and plume observations. This study was funded by KSC under Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) option hours. The models used in the study are part of the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS) and include the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), HYbrid Particle And Concentration Transport (HYPACT), and Rocket Exhaust Effluent Dispersion Model (REEDM). The primary observations used for explosion cloud verification of the study were from the National Weather Service's Weather Surveillance Radar 1988-Doppler (WSR-88D). Radar reflectivity measurements of the resulting cloud provided good estimates of the location and dimensions of the cloud over a four-hour period after the explosion. The results indicated that RAMS and HYPACT models performed reasonably well. Future upgrades to ERDAS are recommended.

Evans, Randolph J.↗

Lightning forecasting studies using LDAR, LLP, field mill, surface mesonet, and Doppler radar data

The ultimate goal of this research is to develop rules, algorithms, display software, and training materials that can be used by the operational forecasters who issue weather advisories for daily ground operations and launches by NASA and the United States Air Force to improve real-time forecasts of lightning. Doppler radar, Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), Lightning Location and Protection (LLP), field mill (Launch Pad Lightning Warning System -- LPLWS), wind tower (surface mesonet) and additional data sets have been utilized in 10 case studies of thunderstorms in the vicinity of KSC during the summers of 1994 and 1995. These case studies reveal many intriguing aspects of cloud-to-ground, cloud-to-cloud, in-cloud, and cloud-to-air lightning discharges in relation to radar thunderstorm structure and evolution. They also enable the formulation of some preliminary working rules of potential use in the forecasting of initial and final ground strike threat. In addition, LDAR and LLP data sets from 1993 have been used to quantify the lightning threat relative to the center and edges of LDAR discharge patterns. Software has been written to overlay and display the various data sets as color imagery. However, human intervention is required to configure the data sets for proper intercomparison. Future efforts will involve additional software development to automate the data set intercomparisons, to display multiple overlay combinations in a windows format, and to allow for animation of the imagery. The software package will then be used as a tool to examine more fully the current cases and to explore additional cases in a timely manner. This will enable the formulation of more general and reliable forecasting guidelines and rules.

Forbes, Gregory S.↗

Verification and implementation of microburst day potential index (MDPI) and wind INDEX (WINDEX) forecasting tools at Cape Canaveral Air Station

This report details the research, development, utility, verification and transition on wet microburst forecasting and detection the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) did in support of ground and launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The unforecasted wind event on 16 August 1994 of 33.5 ms-1 (65 knots) at the Shuttle Landing Facility raised the issue of wet microburst detection and forecasting. The AMU researched and analyzed the downburst wind event and determined it was a wet microburst event. A program was developed for operational use on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) weather system to analyze, compute and display Theta(epsilon) profiles, the microburst day potential index (MDPI), and wind index (WINDEX) maximum wind gust value. Key microburst nowcasting signatures using the WSR-88D data were highlighted. Verification of the data sets indicated that the MDPI has good potential in alerting the duty forecaster to the potential of wet microburst and the WINDEX values computed from the hourly surface data do have potential in showing a trend for the maximum gust potential. WINDEX should help in filling in the temporal hole between the MDPI on the last Cape Canaveral rawinsonde and the nowcasting radar data tools.

Wheeler, Mark↗

Effects of natural environment on first generation solid rocket booster thermal protection system materials

The effort to demonstrate, by real-time exposure, the effects of the natural environment at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, upon the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) is summarized, and that the overall SRB TPS configuration is verified to meet all requirements for resistance to the conditions associated with outdoor weathering, including: solar radiation; temperature; humidity; precipitation; wind; sand/dust abrasion; static electricity; salt spray; fungus; and atmospheric oxidants. The evaluation criterion for this project was based upon flatwise tensile properties, visual inspection, color change, and thermal performance. Based upon the evaluation of the changes in these properties, it is concluded that properly applied and topcoat-protected TPS can satisfactorily withstand the conditions of the natural environment at KSC for exposures up to six months.

Webb, D. D.↗

Material selection and evaluation of new encapsulation compounds for electric cables for launch support system

Eight urethane compounds were evaluated as possible replacement for the existing encapsulating compoounds for electrical cables for the Launch Support System at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The existing encapsulating compound, PR-1535, contains the curative MOCA 4-4'-Methylene-BIS (2-chloroaniline), which is a suspect carcinogen and hence may be the subject of further restrictions of its use by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). The samples made in the configuration of cable joints and in the form of disks were evaluated for flammability and hypergolic compatibility. These also underwent accelerated weatherability tests that measured the residual hardness of the exposed samples. Three candidates and the existing compound passed the hardness test. Of these, only one candidate and the existing compound passed the flammability test. The thermal and hydrolytic stability (weatherability) of these samples was studied using thermogravimetric analysis (DSC) techniques. The TMA and DSC data correlated with the residual hardness data; whereas, the TGA data showed no correlation. A hypergolic compatibility test will be conducted on the compound V-356-HE80, which passed both the flammability and accelerated weatherability tests.

Ray, Asit K.↗

Analyzing Error in Balloon-Based Wind Measurements Due to Spatial Separation Using the North American Regional Reanalysis

Weather balloons have been a longstanding asset to NASA and Aerospace meteorology. Balloons are used from launch vehicle design to day-of-launch operations. One of the most valuable assets from these balloons is wind data from the surface up to 30 kilometers. Due to aloft winds, the balloons may drift downrange of the launch site and vehicle flight path. A 2017 study found balloons at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) can drift as far as 200 kilometers from the launch site (Decker 2017). To obtain robust launch vehicle wind assessments, it is highly desirable to characterize the wind environment along the flight path. This study looks into the errors associated with spatial separation of wind measurements using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR).

Curtis, Nathan↗

Results of the NASA Kennedy Space Center 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Operational Acceptance Test

This paper presents results of the new Kennedy Space Center (KSC) 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) Operational Acceptance Test (OAT). The goal of the OAT was to verify the data quality of the new DRWP against the performance of the previous DRWP in order to use wind data derived by the new DRWP for space launch vehicle operations support at the Eastern Range. The previous DRWP was used as a situational awareness asset for mission operations to identify rapid changes in the wind environment that weather balloons cannot depict. The Marshall Space Flight Center's Natural Environments Branch assessed data from the new DRWP collected during Jan-Feb 2015 against a specified set of test criteria. Data examination verified that the DRWP provides complete profiles every five minutes from 1.8-19.5 km in vertical increments of 150 m. Analysis of 49 concurrent DRWP and balloon profiles presented root mean square wind component differences around 2.0 m/s. Evaluation of the DRWP's coherence between five-minute wind pairs found the effective vertical resolution to be Nyquist-limited at 300 m for both wind components. In addition, the sensitivity to rejecting data that do not have adequate signal was quantified. This paper documents the data, quality control procedures, methodology, and results of each analysis.

Barbre', Robert E., Jr.↗

Simulation of Wind Profile Perturbations for Launch Vehicle Ascent Flight Systems Design Assessments

Ideally, a statistically representative sample of measured high-resolution wind profiles with wavelengths as small as tens of meters is required for assessment of launch vehicle ascent flight systems component capability and vehicle operability for a selected launch site. At most potential launch sites a sample of high-resolution measured wind profiles may not exist. Representative samples of Rawinsonde wind profiles are more likely to be available because of the extensive network of measurement sites established for routine measurements at 12-hr intervals in support of national and international weather observing and forecasting activity. Such a sample, although large enough to statistically represent relatively large wavelength perturbations, would be inadequate for launch system design assessment applications because the Rawinsonde system can accurately measure wind perturbations with wavelengths no smaller than 2000m (1000m altitude increment). Wavelengths less than 2000m in the raw Rawinsonde data, which tend to be dominated by un-damped spurious balloon motion and radar tracking system noise, are filtered within the data processing scheme. The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Jimsphere wind profiles (150/month and seasonal pairs) are the only adequate high resolution (approximately 150 to 300m effective resolution, but over-sampled at 25m intervals) data that have been used extensively in launch vehicle design, operability assessments and operational protection of vehicle systems for wind perturbation uncertainty. Jimsphere wind profiles have been measured at a few other potential launch sites but the number of profiles is relatively small and the samples are not statistically representative of the site dependent wind profile variability. A simulation process has been developed for enhancement of measured low-resolution Rawinsonde profiles that are more likely to be available in the vicinity of potential launch sites and are a statistically representative sample of wind profile perturbation wavelengths greater than 2000m. The enhancement produces perturbed wind profiles with wavelengths as small as desired for application in launch vehicle ascent flight simulations and design assessments.

Adelfang, S. I.↗

Building a QC Database of Meteorological Data From NASA KSC and the United States Air Force's Eastern Range

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (EV44) has provided atmospheric databases and analysis in support of space vehicle design and day-of-launch operations for NASA and commercial launch vehicle programs launching from the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), co-located on the United States Air Force's Eastern Range (ER) at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The ER is one of the most heavily instrumented sites in the United States measuring various atmospheric parameters on a continuous basis. An inherent challenge with the large databases that EV44 receives from the ER consists of ensuring erroneous data are removed from the databases, and thus excluded from launch vehicle design analyses. EV44 has put forth great effort in developing quality control (QC) procedures for individual meteorological instruments; however, no standard QC procedures for all databases currently exist resulting in QC databases that have inconsistencies in variables, methodologies, and periods of record. The goal of this activity is to use the previous efforts by EV44 to develop a standardized set of QC procedures from which to build flags within the meteorological databases from KSC and the ER, while maintaining open communication with end users from the launch community to develop ways to improve, adapt and grow the QC database. Details of the QC checks are described. The flagged data points will be plotted in a graphical user interface (GUI) as part of a manual confirmation that the flagged data do indeed need to be removed from the archive. As the rate of launches increases with additional launch vehicle programs, more emphasis is being placed to continually update and check weather databases for data quality before use in launch vehicle design and certification analyses.

Brenton, James C.↗

Environmental impact statement for the Kennedy Space Center, 1978 - 1979 revision

The ongoing operation of KSC for expendable launch vehicles and automated spacecraft, continued development of facility capabilities, and the approved follow-on operations of the Space Transportation System and associated payloads are described. Emphasis is placed on the expendable launch vehicle and space shuttle traffic projected as of January, 1979. The maximum potential effect on the environment is addressed. Site specific environmental effects are summarized. It is indicated that all potential impacts will be localized, of short duration, controllable, and of minimum severity. The impact on land use, air and water quality, weather, and noise effects is covered.

Source record↗

NASA’s Space Launch System Stands Ready on Doorstep of Maiden Voyage Launch and Progress Made to Future Missions

NASA and its partners made significant progress towards the Artemis I launch in 2022. The integrated Space Launch System (SLS)vehicleand Orion spacecraft were first rolled out of the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in March. SLS is a super heavy-lift vehicle to send large, strategic payloads to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. It isthebackbone of the Artemis human lunar exploration program. Rollout transported the vehicle to Launch Pad 39B for a series of tests, including the wet dress rehearsal (WDR). Multiple attempts were required to complete WDR, each building on the one before. Following the WDR campaign, NASA teams refined hardware and launch procedures, and the vehicle was prepared for its first launch attempt scheduled for August 29. Challenges with the weather and hardware resulted in a scrub on the 29th, and the second attempt was set for Sept. 3. A hydrogen leak on the tail service mast umbilical forced a scrub. NASA teams completed repairs and testing on the vehicle on Launch Pad 39B to preserve a launch attempt at the end of September. Managers chose to return the vehicle to the VAB to protect it fromthe threat of Hurricane Ian. Within the VAB, NASA further inspected and prepared SLS for selected November windows. In addition to progress to the Artemis I mission, significant progress was made on the Artemis II and Artemis III rockets. Progress was also made towards on the Block 1B and Block 2 variants, beginning on the fourth and ninth flight, respectively. Both variants will provide significant improvements in both launch mass and mission flexibility to multiple destinations. This paper will discuss Artemis I vehicle integration, testing, and available results from the launch campaign to date.

Bruce Askins↗

Launch Pad 39 Hail Monitor Array System

Weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center are extremely dynamic, and they greatly affect the safety of the Space Shuttles sitting on the launch pads. For example, on May 13, 1999, the foam on the External Tank (ET) of STS-96 was significantly damaged by hail at the launch pad, requiring rollback to the Vehicle Assembly Building. The loss of ET foam on STS-114 in 2005 intensified interest in monitoring and measuring damage to ET foam, especially from hail. But hail can be difficult to detect and monitor because it is often localized and obscured by heavy rain. Furthermore, the hot Florida climate usually melts the hail even before the rainfall subsides. In response, the hail monitor array (HMA) system, a joint effort of the Applied Physics Laboratory operated by NASA and ASRC Aerospace at KSC, was deployed for operational testing in the fall of 2006. Volunteers from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network, in conjunction with Colorado State University, continue to test duplicate hail monitor systems deployed in the high plains of Colorado.

Source record↗

Establishing a Disruptive New Capability for NASA to Fly UAV's into Hazardous Conditions

A 2015 NASA Aeronautics Mission "Seedling" Proposal is described for a Severe-Environment UAV (SE-UAV) that can perform in-situ measurements in hazardous atmospheric conditions like lightning, volcanic ash and radiation. Specifically, this paper describes the design of a proof-of-concept vehicle and measurement system that can survive lightning attachment during flight operations into thunderstorms. Elements from three NASA centers draw together for the SE-UAV concept. 1) The NASA KSC Genesis UAV was developed in collaboration with the DARPA Nimbus program to measure electric field and X-rays present within thunderstorms. 2) A novel NASA LaRC fiber-optic sensor uses Faraday-effect polarization rotation to measure total lightning electric current on an air vehicle fuselage. 3) NASA AFRC's state-of-the-art Fiber Optics and Systems Integration Laboratory is envisioned to transition the Faraday system to a compact, light-weight, all-fiber design. The SE-UAV will provide in-flight lightning electric-current return stroke and recoil leader data, and serve as a platform for development of emerging sensors and new missions into hazardous environments. NASA's Aeronautics and Science Missions are interested in a capability to perform in-situ volcanic plume measurements and long-endurance UAV operations in various weather conditions. (Figure 1 shows an artist concept of a SE-UAV flying near a volcano.) This paper concludes with an overview of the NASA Aeronautics Strategic Vision, Programs, and how a SE-UAV is envisioned to impact them. The SE-UAV concept leverages high-value legacy research products into a new capability for NASA to fly a pathfinder UAV into hazardous conditions, and is presented in the SPIE DSS venue to explore teaming, collaboration and advocacy opportunities outside NASA.

Ely, Jay↗

First Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Timing Study

NASA's LSP, GSDO and other programs use the probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in their daily and weekly lightning probability forecasts. These organizations use this information when planning potentially hazardous outdoor activities, such as working with fuels, or rolling a vehicle to a launch pad, or whenever personnel will work outside and would be at-risk from lightning. These organizations would benefit greatly if the 45 WS could provide more accurate timing of the first CG lightning strike of the day. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has made significant improvements in forecasting the probability of lightning for the day, but forecasting the time of the first CG lightning with confidence has remained a challenge. To address this issue, the 45 WS requested the AMU to determine if flow regimes, wind speed categories, or a combination of the two could be used to forecast the timing of the first strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lightning warning circles. The data was stratified by various sea breeze flow regimes and speed categories in the surface to 5,000-ft layer. The surface to 5,000-ft layer was selected since that is the layer the 45 WS uses to predict the behavior of sea breeze fronts, which are the dominant influence on the occurrence of first lightning in Florida during the warm season. Due to small data sample sizes after stratification, the AMU could not determine a statistical relationship between flow regimes or speed categories and the time of the first CG strike.. As expected, although the amount and timing of lightning activity varies by time of day based on the flow regimes and speed categories, there are extended tails of low lightning activity making it difficult to specify times when the threat of the first lightning flash can be avoided. However, the AMU developed a graphical user interface with input from the 45 WS that allows forecasters to visualize the climatological frequencies of the timing of the first lightning strike. This tool should contribute directly to the 45 WS goal of improving lightning timing capability for its NASA, US Air Force and commercial customers.

statistical analysis↗

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

On the day of launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers. During launch operations, the payload/launch team sometimes asks the LWOs if they expect the upper-level winds to change during the countdown. The LWOs used numerical weather prediction model point forecasts to provide the information, but did not have the capability to quickly retrieve or adequately display the upper-level observations and compare them directly in the same display to the model point forecasts to help them determine which model performed the best. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Profiling System (AMPS) rawinsondes with point forecast wind profiles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Mesoscale (NAM), Rapid Refresh (RAP) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models to assess the performance of these models. The AMU suggested adding observations from the NASA 50 MHz wind profiler and one of the US Air Force 915 MHz wind profilers, both located near the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Shuttle Landing Facility, to supplement the AMPS observations with more frequent upper-level profiles. Figure 1 shows a map of KSC/CCAFS with the locations of the observation sites and the model point forecasts.

Bauman, William H., III↗