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Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). In last year's NWA abstract on this topic, the suite of SPoRT products supported in the STRC EMS was presented, which includes a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This abstract and companion presentation describes recent upgrades made to the SST and GVF composites, as well as the real-time LIS runs. The Great Lakes sea-ice product is unchanged from 2011. The SPoRT SST composite product has been expanded geographically and as a result, the resolution has been coarsened from 1 km to 2 km to accommodate the larger domain. The expanded domain covers much of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to western Europe (0 N to 80 N latitude and 150 E to 10 E longitude). In addition, the NESDIS POES-GOES product was added to fill in gaps caused by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) being unable to sense in cloudy regions, replacing the recently-lost Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS with negligible change to product fidelity. The SST product now runs twice per day for Terra and Aqua combined data collections from 0000 to 1200 UTC and from 1200 to 0000 UTC, with valid analysis times at 0600 and 1800 UTC. The twice-daily compositing technique reduces the overall latency of the previous version while still representing the diurnal cycle characteristics. The SST composites are available at approximately four hours after the end of each collection period (i.e. 1600 UTC for the nighttime analysis and 0400 UTC for the daytime analysis). The real-time MODIS GVF composite has only received minor updates in the past year. The domain was expanded slightly to extend further west, north, and east to improve coverage over parts of southern Canada. Minor adjustments were also made to the manner in which GVF is calculated from the distribution of maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from MODIS. The presentation will highlight some examples of the substantial inter-annual change in GVF that occurred from 2010 to 2011 in the U.S. Southern Plains as a result of the summer 2011 drought, and the early vegetation green up across the eastern U.S. due to the very warm conditions in March 2012. Finally, the SPoRT LIS runs the operational Noah land surface model (LSM) in real time over much of the eastern half of the CONUS. The Noah LSM is continually cycled in real time, uncoupled to any model, and driven by operational atmospheric analyses over a long-term, multi-year integration. The LIS-Noah provides the STRC EMS with high-resolution (3 km) LSM initialization data that are in equilibrium with the operational analysis forcing. The Noah LSM within the SPoRT LIS has been upgraded from version 2.7.1 to version 3.2, which has improved look-up table attributes for several land surface quantities. The surface albedo field is now being adjusted based on the input real-time MODIS GVF, thereby improving the net radiation. Also, the LIS-Noah now uses the newer MODIS-based land use classification scheme (i.e. the International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme [IGBP]) that has a better depiction of urban corridors in areas where urban sprawl has occurred. STRC EMS users interested in initializing their LSM fields with high-resolution SPoRT LIS data should set up their model domain with the MODIS-IGBP 20-class land use database and select Noah as the LSM.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Flexible Ablators Char Depths LHMEL Test Results

Char and pyrolysis zone depths give physical evidence of peak temperature reached in depth: The pyrolyzing material acts as a temperature indicator within its characteristic thermal decomposition range. A matrix of novel flexible ablators were laser tested in one component of material screening for NASA Entry, Descent and Landing research for future Mars missions. LHMEL tests were run both on virgin materials, and on previously charred materials for a dual pulse simulation of the heating due to aerocapture followed by atmospheric entry. The test models were machined to expose the cross-sections. Char measurements were made at three locations near the center of the exposed area. Data are presented showing the char depths developed in these flexible materials, grouped by reinforcing fiber and pyrolyzing material type.

White, Susan↗

Compact Thermal Imager (CTI) for Atmospheric Remote Sensing

The demonstration of a newly developed compact thermal imager (CTI) on the International Space Station (ISS) has provided not only a technology advancement but a rich high-resolution dataset on global clouds, atmospheric and land emissions. This study showed that the free-running CTI instrument could be calibrated to produce scientifically useful radiance imagery of the atmosphere, clouds, and surfaces with a vertical resolution of ~460 m at limb and a horizontal resolution of ~80 m at nadir. The new detector demonstrated an excellent sensitivity to detect the weak limb radiance perturbations modulated by small-scale atmospheric gravity waves. The CTI’s high-resolution imaging was used to infer vertical cloud temperature profiles from a side-viewing geometry. For nadir imaging, the combined high-resolution and high-sensitivity capabilities allowed the CTI to better separate cloud and surface emissions, including those in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that had small contrast against the background surface. Finally, based on the ISS’s orbit, the stable detector performance and robust calibration algorithm produced valuable diurnal observations of cloud and surface emissions with respect to solar local time during May–October 2019, when the CTI had nearly continuous operation.

thermal imager↗

Simulation Evaluation of Synthetic Vision as an Enabling Technology for Equivalent Visual Operations

Enhanced Vision (EV) and synthetic vision (SV) systems may serve as enabling technologies to meet the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Equivalent Visual Operations (EVO) concept ? that is, the ability to achieve or even improve on the safety of Visual Flight Rules (VFR) operations, maintain the operational tempos of VFR, and even, perhaps, retain VFR procedures independent of actual weather and visibility conditions. One significant challenge lies in the definition of required equipage on the aircraft and on the airport to enable the EVO concept objective. A piloted simulation experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of the presence or absence of Synthetic Vision, the location of this information during an instrument approach (i.e., on a Head-Up or Head-Down Primary Flight Display), and the type of airport lighting information on landing minima. The quantitative data from this experiment were analyzed to begin the definition of performance-based criteria for all-weather approach and landing operations. Objective results from the present study showed that better approach performance was attainable with the head-up display (HUD) compared to the head-down display (HDD). A slight performance improvement in HDD performance was shown when SV was added, as the pilots descended below 200 ft to a 100 ft decision altitude, but this performance was not tested for statistical significance (nor was it expected to be statistically significant). The touchdown data showed that regardless of the display concept flown (SV HUD, Baseline HUD, SV HDD, Baseline HDD) a majority of the runs were within the performance-based defined approach and landing criteria in all the visibility levels, approach lighting systems, and decision altitudes tested. For this visual flight maneuver, RVR appeared to be the most significant influence in touchdown performance. The approach lighting system clearly impacted the pilot's ability to descend to 100 ft height above touchdown based on existing Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) 91.175 using a 200 ft decision height, but did not appear to influence touchdown performance or approach path maintenance

Kramer, Lynda J.↗

Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment(BASE-ASIA)

Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially in Africa, South America, and South East Asia. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass-burning processes, which influence the Earth-atmosphere energetics and hence impact both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some gases and aerosols can serve as active cloud condensation nuclei, which play important role in determining the net radiation budget, precipitation rate, and cloud lifetime. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); the reflectivity and emissivity of the land; and the stability of ecosystems and ecosystem biodiversity. Compared to Africa and South America, the climatology in South East Asia reveals quite different characteristics, showing distinct large-scale smoke and cloud sources and interaction regimes. The fresh water distribution in this region is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall; in fact, the predictability of the tropical climate system is much reduced during the boreal spring, which is associated with the peak season of biomass burning activities. Estimating the burning fuel (e.g., bark, branches, and wood), an important part of studying regional carbon cycle, may rely on utilizing a wide range of distinctive spectral features in the shortwave and longwave regions. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of smoke aerosols in this region requires continuous observations from satellites, aircraft, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. A new initiative will be proposed and discussed.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

Evaluating GCM land surface hydrology parameterizations by computing river discharges using a runoff routing model: Application to the Mississippi basin

To relate general circulation model (GCM) hydrologic output to readily available river hydrographic data, a runoff routing scheme that routes gridded runoffs through regional- or continental-scale river drainage basins is developed. By following the basin overland flow paths, the routing model generates river discharge hydrographs that can be compared to observed river discharges, thus allowing an analysis of the GCM representation of monthly, seasonal, and annual water balances over large regions. The runoff routing model consists of two linear reservoirs, a surface reservoir and a groundwater reservoir, which store and transport water. The water transport mechanisms operating within these two reservoirs are differentiated by their time scales; the groundwater reservoir transports water much more slowly than the surface reservior. The groundwater reservior feeds the corresponding surface store, and the surface stores are connected via the river network. The routing model is implemented over the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project Mississippi River basin on a rectangular grid of 2 deg X 2.5 deg. Two land surface hydrology parameterizations provide the gridded runoff data required to run the runoff routing scheme: the variable infiltration capacity model, and the soil moisture component of the simple biosphere model. These parameterizations are driven with 4 deg X 5 deg gridded climatological potential evapotranspiration and 1979 First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment precipitation. These investigations have quantified the importance of physically realistic soil moisture holding capacities, evaporation parameters, and runoff mechanisms in land surface hydrology formulations.

Liston, G. E.↗

Remote Sensing of the Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Clouds during TC4: Results from MAS, MASTER, MODIS, and MISR

The MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and MODIS/ASTER Airborne Simulator (MASTER) were used to obtain measurements of the bidirectional reflectance and brightness temperature of clouds at 50 discrete wavelengths between 0.47 and 14.3 (12.9 m for MASTER). These observations were obtained from the NASA ER-2 aircraft as part of the Tropical Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4) conducted over Central America and surrounding Pacific and Atlantic Oceans between July 17 and August 8, 2007. Multispectral images in eight distinct bands were used to derive a confidence in clear sky (or alternatively the probability of cloud) over land and ocean ecosystems. Based on the results of individual tests run as part of this cloud mask, an algorithm was developed to estimate the phase of the clouds (liquid water, ice, or undetermined phase). Finally, the cloud optical thickness and effective radius were derived for both liquid water and ice clouds that were detected during each flight, using a nearly identical algorithm as that implemented operationally to process MODIS cloud data from the Aqua and Terra satellites (Collection 5). This analysis shows that the cloud mask developed for operational use on MODIS, and tested using MAS and MASTER date in TC4, is quite capable of distinguishing both liquid water and ice clouds during daytime conditions over both land and ocean. The cloud optical thickness and effective radius retrievals used three distinct bands of the MAS (or MASTER), and these results were compared with nearly simultaneous retrievals of MODIS on the Terra spacecraft. Finally, this MODIS-based algorithm was adapted to MISR data to infer the cloud optical thickness of liquid water clouds from MISR. Results of this analysis will be presented and discussed.

King, Michael D.↗

Remote Sensing of Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Clouds During TC (sup 4): Results from MAS, MASTER, MODIS, and MISR

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Airborne Simulator (MAS) and MODIS/Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Airborne Simulator (MASTER) were used to obtain measurements of the bidirectional reflectance and brightness temperature of clouds at 50 discrete wavelengths between 0.47 and 14.2 microns (12.9 microns for MASTER). These observations were obtained from the NASA ER-2 aircraft as part of the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment conducted over Central America and surrounding Pacific and Atlantic Oceans between 17 July and 8 August 2007. Multispectral images in eleven distinct bands were used to derive a confidence in clear sky (or alternatively the probability Of cloud) over land and ocean ecosystems. Based on the results of individual tests run as part of the cloud mask, an algorithm was developed to estimate the phase of the clouds (liquid water, ice, or undetermined phase). The cloud optical thickness and effective radius were derived for both liquid water and ice clouds that were detected during each flight, using a nearly identical algorithm to that implemented operationally to process MODIS Cloud data from the Aqua and Terra satellites (Collection 5). This analysis shows that the cloud mask developed for operational use on MODIS, and tested using MAS and MASTER data in TC(sup 4), is quite capable of distinguishing both liquid water and ice clouds during daytime conditions over both land and ocean. The cloud optical thickness and effective radius retrievals use five distinct bands of the MAS (or MASTER), and these results were compared with nearly simultaneous retrievals of marine liquid water clouds from MODIS on the Terra spacecraft. Finally, this MODIS-based algorithm was adapted to Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) data to infer the cloud optical thickness Of liquid water clouds from MISR. Results of this analysis are compared and contrasted.

King, Michael D.↗

Results from a GPS Shuttle Training Aircraft flight test

A series of Global Positioning System (GPS) flight tests were performed on a National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Shuttle Training Aircraft (STA). The objective of the tests was to evaluate the performance of GPS-based navigation during simulated Shuttle approach and landings for possible replacement of the current Shuttle landing navigation aid, the Microwave Scanning Beam Landing System (MSBLS). In particular, varying levels of sensor data integration would be evaluated to determine the minimum amount of integration required to meet the navigation accuracy requirements for a Shuttle landing. Four flight tests consisting of 8 to 9 simulation runs per flight test were performed at White Sands Space Harbor in April 1991. Three different GPS receivers were tested. The STA inertial navigation, tactical air navigation, and MSBLS sensor data were also recorded during each run. C-band radar aided laser trackers were utilized to provide the STA 'truth' trajectory.

Saunders, Penny E.↗

Soil runway friction evaluation in support of USAF C-17 transport aircraft operations

A series of NASA Diagonal-Braked Vehicle (DBV) test runs were performed on the soil runway 7/25 at Holland landing zone, Fort Bragg, North Carolina, near Pope Air Force Base in March 1995 at the request of the Air Force C-17 System Program Office. These ground vehicle test results indicated that the dry runway friction level was suitable for planned C-17 transport aircraft landing and take-off operations at various gross weights. These aircraft operations were successfully carried out. On-board aircraft deceleration measurements were comparable to NASA DBV measurements. Additional tests conducted with an Army High Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicle equipped with a portable decelerometer, showed good agreement with NASA DBV data.

Yager, Thomas J.↗

Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

Rajbhandaril, Narayan↗

Runway Safety Monitor Algorithm for Runway Incursion Detection and Alerting

The Runway Safety Monitor (RSM) is an algorithm for runway incursion detection and alerting that was developed in support of NASA's Runway Incursion Prevention System (RIPS) research conducted under the NASA Aviation Safety Program's Synthetic Vision System element. The RSM algorithm provides pilots with enhanced situational awareness and warnings of runway incursions in sufficient time to take evasive action and avoid accidents during landings, takeoffs, or taxiing on the runway. The RSM currently runs as a component of the NASA Integrated Display System, an experimental avionics software system for terminal area and surface operations. However, the RSM algorithm can be implemented as a separate program to run on any aircraft with traffic data link capability. The report documents the RSM software and describes in detail how RSM performs runway incursion detection and alerting functions for NASA RIPS. The report also describes the RIPS flight tests conducted at the Dallas-Ft Worth International Airport (DFW) during September and October of 2000, and the RSM performance results and lessons learned from those flight tests.

Green, David F., Jr.↗

The Power for Flight: NASA's Contributions to Aircraft Propulsion

The New York Times announced America's entry into the 'long awaited' Jet Age when a Pan American (Pan Am) World Airways Boeing 707 airliner left New York for Paris on October 26, 1958. Powered by four turbojet engines, the 707 offered speed, more nonstop flights, and a smoother and quieter travel experience compared to newly antiquated propeller airliners. With the Champs-Elysees only 6 hours away, humankind had entered into a new and exciting age in which the shrinking of the world for good was no longer a daydream. Fifty years later, the New York Times declared the second coming of a 'cleaner, leaner' Jet Age. Decades-old concerns over fuel efficiency, noise, and emissions shaped this new age as the aviation industry had the world poised for 'a revolution in jet engines'. Refined turbofans incorporating the latest innovations would ensure that aviation would continue to enable a worldwide transportation network. At the root of many of the advances over the preceding 50 years was the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). On October 1, 1958, just a few weeks before the flight of that Pan Am 707, NASA came into existence. Tasked with establishing a national space program as part of a Cold War competition between the United States and the Soviet Union, NASA is often remembered in popular memory first for putting the first human beings on the Moon in July 1969, followed by running the successful 30-year Space Shuttle Program and by landing the Rover Curiosity on Mars in August 2012. What many people do not recognize is the crucial role the first 'A' in NASA played in the development of aircraft since the Agency's inception. Innovations shaping the aerodynamic design, efficient operation, and overall safety of aircraft made NASA a vital element of the American aviation industry even though they remained unknown to the public. This is the story of one facet of NASA's many contributions to commercial, military, and general aviation: the development of aircraft propulsion technology, which provides the power for flight.

Kinney, Jeremy R.↗

The NASA-Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework - Land Information System: Global Land/atmosphere Interaction with Resolved Convection

The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

cumulus schemes↗

Assured Contingency Landing Management for Advanced Air Mobility

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is quickly developing as a new air transportation system that moves people and packages in the regions previously not / less served by the current aviation systems. Such AAM must operate safely despite the potential to encounter hazards and experience anomalies and failures in-flight. It becomes especially important to have systematic auto-mitigation strategies to perform safe contingency actions in AAM flight operations, as pilots have limited Situational Awareness (SA) and limited time to make prompt decisions when encountering failures/anomalies in high-density low altitude airspace. This paper presents Assured Contingency Landing Management (ACLM) with an online landing strategy selection to decide between the following three options when a contingency landing is required: (1) Return-to-launch landing site, (2) Land immediately at a nearby clear but unprepared site, (3) Land at a prepared landing site from the approximate footprint. Our presented algorithm shows a real-time auto-mitigation loop with multiple threads that run simultaneously to check controllability, reachability, and intermediate decisions to hold/ loiter or continue the flight plan as the landing strategy solution is being computed. Case study simulation is demonstrated with the safety-critical propulsion system and battery system and shows how different failure scenarios impact the landing strategy selection.

Autonomous Mitigation↗

A comparison between conventional and LANDSAT based hydrologic modeling: The Four Mile Run case study

Models designed to support the hydrologic studies associated with urban water resources planning require input parameters that are defined in terms of land cover. Estimating the land cover is a difficult and expensive task when drainage areas larger than a few sq. km are involved. Conventional and LANDSAT based methods for estimating the land cover based input parameters required by hydrologic planning models were compared in a case study of the 50.5 sq. km (19.5 sq. mi) Four Mile Run Watershed in Virginia. Results of the study indicate that the LANDSAT based approach is highly cost effective for planning model studies. The conventional approach to define inputs was based on 1:3600 aerial photos, required 110 man-days and a total cost of $14,000. The LANDSAT based approach required 6.9 man-days and cost $2,350. The conventional and LANDSAT based models gave similar results relative to discharges and estimated annual damages expected from no flood control, channelization, and detention storage alternatives.

Ragan, R. M.↗

Quantifying Contributions of Land Carbon Fluxes Variability and Atmospheric Transport Variability to Atmospheric CO2 Variability

Much of the uncertainty in predicting variations in greenhouse gases originates in the complex dynamics of the land ecosystem and the atmosphere. To reduce the uncertainties, it is useful to decouple the contributions of land carbon fluxes and atmospheric transport to atmospheric carbon variability. Here we isolate these contributions using a version of the NASA GEOS model that couples carbon, energy and water cycles between the land and the atmosphere. Our current study is a follow-on to a preliminary analysis that suggested that an extreme event (e.g., imposed drought) in a free running AGCM simulation affects atmospheric CO2 more through its impact on atmospheric transport than through a modification of land carbon fluxes. In order to more carefully isolate the effects of the land carbon variability and atmospheric transport variability on atmospheric CO2 variability, we conducted two coupled-AGCM simulations in replay mode, a mode that forces the model's evolution of weather to match that of the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In the control simulation, the land carbon fluxes and the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as well as the meteorology, are simulated over 2001-2015. We compute the climatological seasonal cycles of net land carbon production from this control simulation and then prescribe, in a second simulation, these climatological carbon fluxes to the atmosphere in the same replay mode. By comparing the atmospheric CO2 variability produced in the two simulations, we fully isolate the part of this variability associated with land surface fluxes. Relative contributions of land flux variability and atmospheric transport variability to CO2 variability are quantified both on a regional basis and as a function of height into the atmosphere to support interpretation of both ground-based and satellite observations.

Lee, Eunjee↗