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At least 145 records · Page 8
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DOE OSTI2024

Platform for Integrated Land use And Transportation Experiments and Simulation (PILATES) v1.0

PILATES allows for flexibly and at-scale coupling of multiple models to allow for multi-scale and multi-resolution simulation of regional-scale transport networks. In particular, it couples the MATSim-derived transportation modeling framework for Behavior, Energy, Autonomy and Mobility (BEAM) with other models operating at different time scales. Rather than tightly coupling supply and demand models using shared agents and memory within the same software process, PILATES orchestrates different model runs in a containerized framework. This structure requires passing information from the demand models to BEAM in the format of a synthetic population and agent plans, and from BEAM to the demand models in terms or origin/destination tables (also known as "skims"). This allows it to take advantage of the behavioral sophistication of existing activity-based models as well as the reinforcement learning structure of MATSim replanning and adopted by BEAM, in a way that requires minimal changes to existing models. It also takes advantage of the computational performance of BEAM, which allows for simulations with millions of agents to complete in reasonable time as well as allowing for detailed mechanistic simulation of the operation of on-demand modes.

Needell, Zachary↗
DOE OSTI2024

End State: Vision for Future Land Use at Hanford

An end state vision is influenced by practical constraints associated with technology limitations, resource availability, costs, timing, and unintended consequences of remedial actions, and a site’s next intended use. Therefore, subsurface environmental remediation goals often need to be balanced against the risks and costs of contaminant removal versus leaving contamination in place. For example, in regions where contaminant concentrations are high but immobile, the intended site use should be evaluated in conjunction with the risk of re-mobilization with an aggressive remedy. By contrast, the technological challenges, cost, and time to reach remedial objectives of cleaning up low levels of contamination distributed over large areas in the subsurface may require different considerations for a site’s next intended use.

environmental remediation, environmental managemen↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agrivoltaics: Unlocking the Potential of Dual Land Use

This tutorial will delve into the practical and technical considerations for agrivoltaic systems, including crop selection, agricultural practices, and solar energy optimization. Leveraging insights from successful case studies, we'll address challenges such as policy barriers and regulatory gaps while exploring opportunities and incentives for implementation. With a focus on PV expertise, attendees will gain actionable knowledge on designing and evaluating dual-use systems that balance energy generation with agricultural productivity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel PV Array System Design to Accelerate Solar Deployment, Reduce LCOE, Reduce Land Use Competition, and Increase Siting Flexibility

The increasing demand for solar energy faces significant barriers, including inefficient construction processes, high project costs limiting LCOE reductions, and diminishing availability of "good" sites with favorable interconnection. Conventional solar installations are often constrained by long construction timelines and the need for flat, large plots. Furthermore, the industry struggles with a shortage of skilled labor. Planted Solar aims to address these challenges by fundamentally transforming solar deployment from a construction project into a streamlined manufacturing process. Our novel approach combines high-density racking, integrated terrain-following design software, and installation automation. Unlike competing solutions that either assist with standard array assembly or offer dense packing without terrain adaptability or automation, Planted's technology uniquely brings together a new array product with in-place automated manufacturing to achieve the lowest possible cost, greater site flexibility, and accelerated deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Returns to Land and Greenhouse Gas Savings from Producing Energy Crops on Conservation Reserve Program Land

Using land already enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in the eastern region of the U.S. for producing energy crops for bioenergy while reducing land rental payments offers the potential for lowering the program costs, increasing returns to CRP landowners, and displacing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuels. We develop an integrated modeling approach to analyze the combination of biomass prices and CRP land rental payment reductions that can incentivize energy crop production on CRP land and its potential to increase soil carbon stocks and displace fossil fuel emissions. Here, we find that conversion of 3.4 million ha in the CRP can be economically viable at a minimum biomass price of 75 Mg –1 with full CRP land rental payment or at 100 Mg –1 with 75% of this land rental payment; this conversion can result in savings of 0.52 and 1.25 billion Mg CO 2 -eq in life-cycle emissions through the displacement of energy-equivalent fossil fuels and coal-based electricity, respectively, and an additional 0.11 billion Mg CO 2 -eq soil carbon sequestration relative to the status quo, with CRP left unharvested over the 2016–2030 period. The soil carbon debt due to the transition from unharvested CRP land to energy crops is short-lived and more than offset by the reduction in fossil fuel emissions. The net discounted benefits from producing energy crops on CRP land through a reduced need for government payments to maintain existing enrollment, higher returns to CRP landowners, and the value of the reduction in GHG emissions could be as high as 16–30 billion by using them for cellulosic biofuels to displace gasoline and 35–68 billion by displacing coal-based electricity over the 2016–2030 period if biomass prices are 75–125 Mg –1 and land rental payments are reduced by 25%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Spatially Explicit Patterns of Land Transitions in the United States With Multiple Stressors

Climate change, income and population growth, and changing diets are major drivers of the global food system with implications for land use change. Land use in the U.S. will be affected directly by local and regional forces and indirectly through international trade. In order to investigate the effects of several potential forces on land use changes in the U.S., we advanced capabilities in representing the interactions between natural and human systems by linking a multisectoral and multiregional socio-economic model of the world economy to a model that downscales land use to a 0.5°grid scale. This enables us to translate regional projections of future land use into higher-resolution representations of time-evolving land cover (effectively spatially explicit land use transitions). We applied the framework over the U.S., with a particular interest in the Mississippi River Basin and its four sub-basins, to consider how a range of global drivers affect land use and cover in the target regions. Our results show that under scenarios of high pressure on the world food system a comparative advantage in livestock production amplifies the recent trend toward less cropland and more pastures in the U.S. Under low pressures on the world food system agricultural land is used less intensively. However, there can be key differences among the various land-use transitions at the sub- basin scale. Overall, these results highlighted the need for high resolution details to explicitly understand the implications of land use change on environmental impacts such as carbon storage, soil erosion, chemical use, hydrology, and water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Atmospheric Inverse Modelling of Methane Budgets with Copernicus Land Water and Wetness Data to Detect Land Use-Related Emissions

Climate change mitigation requires countries to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks, including those from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In Finland, the LULUCF sector plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero GHG emissions, as the sector is expected to be a net sink. However, accurate estimates of LULUCF-related GHG emissions, such as methane (CH 4 ), remain challenging. We estimated LULUCF-related CH 4 emissions in Finland in 2013–2020 by combining national land cover and remote-sensed surface wetness data with CH 4 emissions estimated by an inversion model. According to our inversion model, most of Finland’s CH 4 emissions were attributed to natural sources such as open pristine peatlands. However, our research indicated that forests with thin tree cover surrounding open peatlands may also be a significant source of CH 4 . Unlike open pristine peatlands and pristine peatlands with thin tree cover, surrounding transient forests are included in the Finnish GHG inventory if they meet the criteria used for forest land. The current Finnish national GHG inventory may therefore underestimate CH 4 emissions from forested organic soils surrounding open peatlands, although more precise methods and data are needed to verify this. Given the potential impact on net GHG emissions, CH 4 emissions from transitional forests on organic soils should be further investigated. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential of combining atmospheric inversion modelling of GHGs with diverse data sources and highlight the need for methods to more easily combine atmospheric inversions with national GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Diverse Land across the Continental United States

The current methods for designing hydrological infrastructure rely on precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency curves. However, they cannot accurately predict flooding caused by snowmelt or rain-on-snow events, potentially leading to underdesigned infrastructure and property damage. To address these issues, next-generation intensity-duration-frequency (NG-IDF) curves have been developed for the open condition, characterizing water available for runoff from rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow. However, they lack consideration of land use land cover (LULC) factors, which can significantly affect runoff processes. We address this limitation by expanding open area NG-IDF dataset to include eight vegetated LULCs over the continental United States, including forest (deciduous, evergreen, mixed), shrub, grass, pasture, crop, and wetland. This NG-IDF 2.0 dataset offers a comprehensive analysis of hydrological extreme events and their associated drivers under different LULCs at a continental scale. It will serve as a useful resource for improving standard design practices and aiding in the assessment of infrastructure design risks. Additionally, it provides useful insights into how changes in LULC impact flooding magnitude, mechanisms, timing, and snow water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Multi-Fidelity Soil Moisture Products Across the Continental United States

We have aggregated the most recent soil moisture datasets from a diverse range of sources, encompassing the Continental United States (CONUS). These sources encompass gridded data from remote sensing products, reanalysis products, machine learning-based projects, and land surface modeling products. Additionally, we have obtained and processed in-situ soil moisture observations from the International Soil Moisture Network. The collected datasets exhibit variations in both temporal and spatial resolutions. Among the 20 datasets, six are available at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees, while three are at a coarser spatial resolution of 25 km. To minimize spatial interpolation, we conducted data uncertainty evaluations at the 0.25-degree spatial resolution. For our data evaluations, we maintained a monthly temporal resolution, which effectively captures soil moisture seasonality and interannual variability. Our data processing strategy preserves the raw data and interpolated data at their original temporal resolutions. Datasets with higher temporal resolutions, including daily, three-hourly, and hourly datasets, are set aside for subsequent analyses. These analyses will delve into topics such as soil moisture changes and recovery during extreme weather events. Furthermore, we have processed auxiliary data to enhance our evaluation, leveraging tools such as Google Earth Engine. This includes incorporating topography data, land use land cover data, Köppen-Geiger climate classification, and more to provide a comprehensive assessment from multiple sources.

Li, Lingcheng↗
DOE OSTI2026

CLM5 Simulations of Soil Moisture and Grain Carbon for CONUS at 0.125 degrees

This dataset provides 0.125° gridded simulations of soil moisture and crop grain carbon for the Contiguous United States (CONUS), generated using the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) with the biogeochemistry module enabled. The data covers a historical baseline (1980–2015) and mid-century future projections (2020–2055). Future projections are organized into two sets of scenarios to distinguish the impacts of different drivers: (1) Atmospheric Only (ATM-only): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcings while holding land use and land cover change (LULCC) at historical baseline levels. The atmospheric forcings represent moderately versus severely hotter/drier atmospheric conditions (dynamically downscaled perturbed thermodynamics simulations based on CMIP6 SSP245 and SSP585 warming signals), each with cooler versus hotter Earth System Model temperature sensitivity instantiations. These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler, atm45hotter, atm85cooler, and atm85hotter. (2) Coupled Atmospheric and Land-Use (LAND+ATM): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcing together with future LULCC by pairing atmospheric pathways with lower versus higher population/economic growth scenarios representing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5 (SSP3 and SSP5). These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler_ssp3, atm45hotter_ssp3, atm45cooler_ssp5, atm45hotter_ssp5, atm85cooler_ssp3, atm85hotter_ssp3, atm85cooler_ssp5, and atm85hotter_ssp5. Please refer to the README file for detailed information on file structure, variables, units, and data formats.

Yao, Lili [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory] ↗
DOE OSTI2026

CLM5 Simulations of Soil Moisture and Gross Primary Productivity for CONUS at 0.125 degrees

This dataset provides 0.125-degree gridded simulations of soil moisture and gross primary productivity (GPP) for the Contiguous United States (CONUS), generated using the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) with the biogeochemistry module enabled. The data covers a historical baseline (1980-2015) and mid-century future projections (2020-2055). Future projections are organized into two sets of scenarios to distinguish the impacts of different drivers: (1) Atmospheric Only (ATM): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcings while holding land use and land cover (LULC) at historical baseline levels. The atmospheric forcings represent moderately versus severely hotter/drier atmospheric conditions (dynamically downscaled perturbed thermodynamics simulations based on CMIP6 SSP245 and SSP585 warming signals), each with cooler versus hotter Earth System Model temperature sensitivity instantiations. These scenarios are identified in the folder names as rcp45_cooler_near, rcp45_hotter_near, rcp85_cooler_near, and rcp85_hotter_near. (2) Coupled Atmospheric and Land-Use (LAND+ATM): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcing together with future LULC by pairing atmospheric pathways with lower versus higher population/economic growth scenarios representing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5 (SSP3 and SSP5). These scenarios are identified in the file names as ssp3_rcp45_cooler_near, ssp3_rcp45_hotter_near, ssp5_rcp85_cooler_near, and ssp5_rcp85_hotter_near. Please refer to the "README_first.md" file for detailed information on file structure, variables, units, and data formats.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comprehensive and synthetic dataset for global, regional, and national greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1970–2018 with an extension to 2019

To track progress towards keeping global warming well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, comprehensive up-to-date and reliable information on anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required. Here we compile a new synthetic dataset on anthropogenic GHG emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. Our dataset is global in coverage and includes CO 2 emissions, CH 4 emissions, N 2 O emissions, as well as those from fluorinated gases (F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 , NF 3 ) and provides country and sector details. We build this dataset from the version 6 release of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v6) and three bookkeeping models for CO 2 emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). We assess the uncertainties of global greenhouse gases at the 90 % confidence interval (5th–95th percentile range) by combining statistical analysis and comparisons of global emissions inventories and top-down atmospheric measurements with an expert judgement informed by the relevant scientific literature. We identify important data gaps for F-gas emissions. The agreement between our bottom-up inventory estimates and top-down atmospheric-based emissions estimates is relatively close for some F-gas species (~ 10 % or less), but estimates can differ by an order of magnitude or more for others. Our aggregated F-gas estimate is about 10 % lower than top-down estimates in recent years. However, emissions from excluded F-gas species such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are cumulatively larger than the sum of the reported species. Using global warming potential values with a 100-year time horizon from the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global GHG emissions in 2018 amounted to 58 ± 6.1 GtCO 2 eq. consisting of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion and industry (FFI) 38 ± 3.0 GtCO 2 , CO 2 -LULUCF 5.7 ± 4.0 GtCO 2 , CH 4 10 ± 3.1 GtCO 2 eq., N2O 2.6 ± 1.6 GtCO 2 eq., and F-gases 1.3 ± 0.40 GtCO 2 eq. Initial estimates suggest further growth of 1.3 GtCO 2 eq. in GHG emissions to reach 59 ± 6.6 GtCO 2 eq. by 2019. Our analysis of global trends in anthropogenic GHG emissions over the past 5 decades (1970–2018) highlights a pattern of varied but sustained emissions growth. There is high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased every decade, and emissions growth has been persistent across the different (groups of) gases. There is also high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions levels were higher in 2009–2018 than in any previous decade and that GHG emissions levels grew throughout the most recent decade. While the average annual GHG emissions growth rate slowed between 2009 and 2018 (1.2 % yr –1 ) compared to 2000–2009 (2.4 % yr –1 ), the absolute increase in average annual GHG emissions by decade was never larger than between 2000–2009 and 2009–2018. Our analysis further reveals that there are no global sectors that show sustained reductions in GHG emissions. There are a number of countries that have reduced GHG emissions over the past decade, but these reductions are comparatively modest and outgrown by much larger emissions growth in some developing countries such as China, India, and Indonesia. There is a need to further develop independent, robust, and timely emissions estimates across all gases. As such, tracking progress in climate policy requires substantial investments in independent GHG emissions accounting and monitoring as well as in national and international statistical infrastructures. The data associated with this article (Minx et al., 2021) can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5566761.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Deep Soil Organic Carbon Response to Global Change

Over 70% of soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored at a depth greater than 20 cm belowground. A portion of this deep SOC actively cycles on annual to decadal timescales and is sensitive to global change. However, deep SOC responses to global change likely differ from surface SOC responses because biotic controls on SOC cycling become weaker as mineral controls predominate with depth. Here, we synthesize the current information on deep SOC responses to the global change drivers of warming, shifting precipitation, elevated CO 2 , and land use and land cover change. Most deep SOC responses can only be hypothesized because few global change studies measure deep soils, and even fewer global change experiments manipulate deep soils. We call on scientists to incorporate deep soils into their manipulations, measurements, and models so that the response of deep SOC can be accounted for in projections of nature-based climate solutions and terrestrial feedbacks to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-resolution (30-m) urban land cover projections for Los Angeles California Urban Area: 2010 to 2100 under SSP5

These data represent simulations of future land use and land cover (LULCC) for Los Angeles urban area (U.S. Census Bureau defined area) as raster tiff images at a 30-m pixel resolution and at decadal time steps from 2010 to 2100. LULCC classes in this product follow the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) classification. NLCD 21-24 correspond to open developed, low developed, medium developed, and high developed urban land classes, respectively. Only urban land cover classes (NLCD class 21, 22, 23, and 24) are dynamic over time; however, all NLCD classes are included in the final product. Therefore, NLCD classes that do not convert to an urban class will be similar to year 2000. The products were developed using a hybridized statistical and cellular automata approach. Linear mixed models (LMMs) were used to estimate future urban land budgets based on 1-km urban land fraction projections from Gao and Pesaresi (2021), whereas separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to estimate shifts in urban land intensities based on retrospective shifts in NLCD urban class intensities over a 20- year period. Based on urban land allocations from the statistical models, a cellular-automata and downscaling routine was used to simulate dynamic urban land expansion at a 30-m resolution based on suitability criteria. Scenarios of future urban landcover change projections include variant solutions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 (SSP5) based on different population assumptions, different land use intensification assumptions, variable land zoning constraints, and iterative adjustments to correct for over allocation of urban expansion across decadal time periods from 2010 to 2100. This results in 320 raster products.

Land↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-resolution (30-m) urban land cover projections for Los Angeles California Urban Area: 2010 to 2100 under SSP3 and SSP5 [Updated simulations based on population-driven urban intensity transitions]

These data (v3) are updated from previous versions (1 and 2) in that they include consider the effects of population on transitions in urban land intensity. This leads to more reasonable differences in urban land projections under variant SSPs. For the present dataset, both SSP3 and SSP5 are provided. These data represent simulations of future land use and land cover (LULCC) for Los Angeles urban area (U.S. Census Bureau defined area) as raster tiff images at a 30-m pixel resolution and at decadal time steps from 2010 to 2100. LULCC classes in this product follow the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) classification. NLCD 21-24 correspond to open developed, low developed, medium developed, and high developed urban land classes, respectively. Only urban land cover classes (NLCD class 21, 22, 23, and 24) are dynamic over time; however, all NLCD classes are included in the final product. Therefore, NLCD classes that do not convert to an urban class will be similar to year 2000. The products were developed using a hybridized statistical and cellular automata approach. Linear mixed models (LMMs) were used to estimate future urban land budgets based on 1-km urban land fraction projections from Gao and Pesaresi (2021), whereas separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to estimate shifts in urban land intensities based on retrospective shifts in NLCD urban class intensities over a 20- year period. Based on urban land allocations from the statistical models, a cellular-automata and downscaling routine was used to simulate dynamic urban land expansion at a 30-m resolution based on suitability criteria. Scenarios of future urban landcover change projections include variant solutions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 (SSP5) and SSP 3 based on different population assumptions, different land use intensification assumptions, variable land zoning constraints, and iterative adjustments to correct for over allocation of urban expansion across decadal time periods from 2010 to 2100. This results in 320 raster products.

Land↗
DOE OSTI2020

Past and present disturbances generate spatial variation in seed predation

Seed survival is a key process for plant populations; variation in the activity and abundance of animals that consume seeds can lead to dramatic shifts in seed fate. Because granivores may respond to contemporary disturbance as well as to enduring changes in habitats caused by past disturbances, understanding seed fate requires studies capable of evaluating how past and present disturbances modify granivore communities, foraging activity, and ultimately, seed predation. Historic agricultural land use and contemporary canopy harvesting are widespread disturbances that could generate large-scale patterns of seed fate by modifying environmental characteristics that determine granivore identity and behavior. Here, to evaluate whether land-use history and canopy harvesting affect seed–animal interactions, we conducted an experiment distributed across 80,000 ha of longleaf pine woodlands that coupled large-scale canopy harvesting at seven 4-ha sites containing both post-agricultural land use and nonagricultural land use in South Carolina, United States. We deployed a total of 28,000 nail-tagged seeds and recovered the tags to quantify seed fate. Past agricultural land use and contemporary canopy harvesting interacted to affect the rate of seed predation. Seed predation rates in harvested sites depended on land-use history: Seed predation was 30% lower in post-agricultural plots than in nonagricultural plots. This interaction was driven by the differential effect of land-use history and canopy harvesting on rodent activity. Camera traps revealed that Sigmodon hispidus only foraged in harvested plots and was most active in nonagricultural plots. In harvested plots, seed removal increased with S. hispidus activity. In unharvested plots, seed removal increased with Sciurus niger activity, but S. niger was not affected by land-use history. In finding that land-use history and canopy harvesting determine the outcomes of seed–animal interactions, we show that understanding patterns of seed predation is contingent upon the interplay of disturbances in both the distant past and recent past. These results suggest that patterns of past land use and present land use may help reconcile the considerable variation in seed fate observed in ecological communities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗