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DOE OSTI2025

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Urbanization and edge effects interact to drive mutualism breakdown and the rise of unstable pathogenic communities in forest soil

Temperate forests are threatened by urbanization and fragmentation, with over 20% (118,300 km 2 ) of U.S. forest land projected to be subsumed by urban land development. We leveraged a unique, well-characterized urban-to-rural and forest edge-to-interior gradient to identify the combined impact of these two land use changes—urbanization and forest edge creation—on the soil microbial community in native remnant forests. We found evidence of mutualism breakdown between trees and their fungal root mutualists [ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi] with urbanization, where ECM fungi colonized fewer tree roots and had less connectivity in soil microbiome networks in urban forests compared to rural forests. However, urbanization did not reduce the relative abundance of ECM fungi in forest soils; instead, forest edges alone led to strong reductions in ECM fungal abundance. At forest edges, ECM fungi were replaced by plant and animal pathogens, as well as copiotrophic, xenobiotic-degrading, and nitrogen-cycling bacteria, including nitrifiers and denitrifiers. Urbanization and forest edges interacted to generate new “suites” of microbes, with urban interior forests harboring highly homogenized microbiomes, while edge forest microbiomes were more heterogeneous and less stable, showing increased vulnerability to low soil moisture. When scaled to the regional level, we found that forest soils are projected to harbor high abundances of fungal pathogens and denitrifying bacteria, even in rural areas, due to the widespread existence of forest edges. Our results highlight the potential for soil microbiome dysfunction—including increased greenhouse gas production—in temperate forest regions that are subsumed by urban expansion, both now and in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ensuring planetary survival: the centrality of organic carbon in balancing the multifunctional nature of soils

Not only do soils provide 98.7% of the calories consumed by humans, they also provide numerous other functions upon which planetary survivability closely depends. However, our continuously increasing focus on soils for biomass provision (food, fiber, and energy) through intensive agriculture is rapidly degrading soils and diminishing their capacity to deliver other vital functions. These tradeoffs in soil functionality – the increased provision of one function at the expense of other critical planetary functions – are the focus of this review. Here, we examine how land-use change for biomass provision has decreased the ability of soils to regulate the carbon pool and thereby contribute profoundly to climate change, to cycle the nutrients that sustain plant growth and ecosystem health, to protect the soil biodiversity upon which many other functions depend, and to cycle the Earth’s freshwater supplies. We also examine how this decreasing ability of soil to provide these other functions can be halted and reversed. Despite the complexity and the interconnectedness of soil functions, we show that soil organic carbon plays a central role and is a master indicator for soil functioning and that we require a better understanding of the factors controlling the behavior and persistence of C in soils. Given the threats facing humanity and their economies, it is imperative that we recognize that Soil Security is itself an existential challenge and that we need to increase our focus on the multiple functions of soils for long-term human welfare and survivability of the planet.

Carboncarbon sequestration↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comment on ‘Carbon Intensity of corn ethanol in the United States: state of the science’

Abstract In their recent contribution, Scully et al (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 043001) review and revise past life cycle assessments of corn-grain ethanol’s carbon (C) intensity to suggest that a current ‘central best estimate’ is considerably less than all prior estimates. Their conclusion emerges from selection and recombination of sector-specific greenhouse gas emission predictions from disparate studies in a way that disproportionately favors small values and optimistic assumptions without rigorous justification nor empirical support. Their revisions most profoundly reduce predicted land use change (LUC) emissions, for which they propose a central estimate that is roughly half the smallest comparable value they review (figure 1). This LUC estimate represents the midpoint of (a) values retained after filtering the predictions of past studies based on a set of unfounded criteria; and (b) a new estimate they generate for domestic (i.e. U.S.) LUC emissions. The filter the authors apply endorses a singular means of LUC assessment which they assert as the ‘best practice’ despite a recent unacknowledged review (Malins et al 2020 J. Clean. Prod. 258 120716) that shows this method almost certainly underestimates LUC. Moreover, their domestic C intensity estimate surprisingly suggests that cropland expansion newly sequesters soil C, counter to ecological theory and empirical evidence. These issues, among others, prove to grossly underestimate the C intensity of corn-grain ethanol and mischaracterize the state of our science at the risk of perversely affecting policy outcomes.

Spawn-Lee, Seth A. (ORCID:0000000188215345)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using Image Processing Techniques to Identify and Quantify Spatiotemporal Carbon Cycle Extremes

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide due to human activities through fossil fuel emissions and land use changes have increased climate extremes such as heat waves and droughts that have led to and are expected to increase the occurrence of carbon cycle extremes. Carbon cycle extremes represent large anomalies in the carbon cycle that are associated with gains or losses in carbon uptake. Carbon cycle extremes could be continuous in space and time and cross political boundaries. Here, we present a methodology to identify large spatiotemporal extremes (STEs) in the terrestrial carbon cycle using image processing tools for feature detection. We characterized the STE events based on neighborhood structures that are three-dimensional adjacency matrices for the detection of spatiotemporal manifolds of carbon cycle extremes. We found that the area affected and carbon loss during negative carbon cycle extremes were consistent with continuous neighborhood structures. In the gross primary production data we used, 100 carbon cycle STEs accounted for more than 75% of all the negative carbon cycle extremes. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the magnitude of carbon cycle STEs and attribution of those STEs to climate drivers as a function of neighborhood structures for two observational datasets and an Earth system model simulation.

Sharma, Bharat↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seasonality regulates the structure and biogeochemical impact of ectomycorrhizal fungal communities across environmentally divergent neotropical dry forests

Abstract Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) symbioses support forest functioning globally, yet both the structure and function of ECM fungal communities in seasonally dry neotropical forests (SDTFs), known for extreme heterogeneity in vegetation and edaphic properties, remain under characterized. Here, we evaluated the relative influences of seasonal versus spatial variation in ECM fungal community structure in soils from four environmentally divergent SDTFs. We also assessed the importance of biotic and abiotic drivers of SDTF ECM fungal community structure at regional scales, as well as ECM impacts on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. ECM fungal frequency, relative abundance and richness all increased in the wet season, but spatial rather than seasonal effects explained more variation in community composition. Across the four SDTFs investigated, differences in tree communities drove ECM fungal community turnover more than geographic distances, site abiotic conditions or soil chemistry. Although soil moisture and ECM tree basal area were stronger predictors of soil biogeochemistry, incorporating ECM fungal community composition and relative abundance added explanatory power to models of soil C and N cycling in the wet season. Synthesis : Our results highlight the importance of seasonality and plant community composition in shaping different aspects of SDTF ECM fungal community structure and diversity as well as the potential for both the plant and fungal components of ECM symbioses to impact soil functioning across heterogenous SDTFs. Furthermore, our findings suggest that alterations in SDTF plant community composition due to climate or land‐use change will have important consequences for ECM fungal diversity and associated effects on soil biogeochemical cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Landscape connectivity for the invisibles

Because of land use changes, a worldwide decrease in biodiversity is underway, mostly driven by habitat degradation and fragmentation. Increasing landscape connectivity (i.e. the degree to which the landscape facilitates movement between habitat patches) has been proposed as a key landscape-level strategy to counterbalance the negative effects of habitat fragmentation. A robust theoretical and methodological framework has been developed for the concept of connectivity, and an increasing body of empirical evidence supports the relevance of connectivity for biodiversity. However, the framework was built ignoring species that represent the dominant proportion of biodiversity on earth: microorganisms. The extent to which the existing conceptual and methodological frameworks on connectivity can be applied to microorganisms remain unknown. We reviewed existing evidence and analyzed methods to test the influence of connectivity on microorganisms. We included all types of microorganisms, from symbiotic to pathogenic and free-living microorganisms, across all ecosystems. We describe the effect of connectivity on microorganism populations and communities, and identify the limitations and large gaps in current knowledge. Microorganisms can differ from macroorganisms in their response to connectivity due to short (distance less than a meter) dispersal distance of some groups, longer time lag of microorganisms response (possibly accompanied by evolutionary processes) and host association. The latter relies on tight interactions and feedback effects that drive microbial-landscape relationships and lead to possible coadaptation processes. Incorporating the connectivity concept in microbial community assembly rules to preserve the diversity of microbial communities and the ecosystem services they provide could be a crucial step forward in the face of pressing global changes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The hidden roots of wetland methane emissions

Abstract Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) globally. Climate and land use change are expected to alter CH 4 emissions but current and future wetland CH 4 budgets remain uncertain. One important predictor of wetland CH 4 flux, plants, play an important role in providing substrates for CH 4 ‐producing microbes, increasing CH 4 consumption by oxygenating the rhizosphere, and transporting CH 4 from soils to the atmosphere. Yet, there remain various mechanistic knowledge gaps regarding the extent to which plant root systems and their traits influence wetland CH 4 emissions. Here, we present a novel conceptual framework of the relationships between a range of root traits and CH 4 processes in wetlands. Based on a literature review, we propose four main CH 4 ‐relevant categories of root function: gas transport, carbon substrate provision, physicochemical influences and root system architecture. Within these categories, we discuss how individual root traits influence CH 4 production, consumption, and transport (PCT). Our findings reveal knowledge gaps concerning trait functions in physicochemical influences, and the role of mycorrhizae and temporal root dynamics in PCT. We also identify priority research needs such as integrating trait measurements from different root function categories, measuring root‐CH 4 linkages along environmental gradients, and following standardized root ecology protocols and vocabularies. Thus, our conceptual framework identifies relevant belowground plant traits that will help improve wetland CH 4 predictions and reduce uncertainties in current and future wetland CH 4 budgets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Habitat Affinity of Riverine Dissolved Organic Matter Linked to Molecular Traits

Fluxes of organic matter across Earth habitats shape ecosystem function and carbon storage. Yet, it is challenging to predict howthe molecules are preferentially accumulated in specific habitats, that is, the habitat affinities, due to their diverse character-istics. Here, we develop an indicator of compositional-level habitat affinity for dissolved organic matter (DOM) by quantifyingthe aggregated affinities of individual molecules that are over- or under-represented relative to a reference habitat. Applyingthis indicator to 93 paired riverine water-sediment sites, we find that 65.1% of molecules show non-significant habitat affinitiesfor water or sediment and are thermodynamically favorable and susceptible to microbial degradation. Consistently, the habitataffinities of DOM assemblages decrease with lower molecular weights and recalcitrance for waters, and with higher thermody-namic favorability for sediments. These affinities are both reduced by elevated temperatures and anthropogenic pressures, suchas nitrogen loading and land-use change. Our projection of habitat affinities of global riverine DOM shows that regions withintense anthropogenic disturbances or warm climates, such as East Asia, Western Europe, and the Amazon, tend to exhibit loweraffinities. These findings suggest enhanced molecular homogenization between water and sediment habitats is associated withenvironmental changes and underscore the importance of habitat affinities for predicting the potential trajectories of organiccarbon across ecosystems

Cui, Yifan↗

DOE OSTI2021

A regional inter-disciplinary partnership focusing on the development of a carinata-centered bioeconomy

Brassica carinata or Ethiopian mustard, a non-edible oilseed brassica, is a low carbon, purpose-grown, and none-to-low indirect land-use change bioenergy feedstock for the production of drop-in sustainable aviation fuel, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and a suite of value-added coproducts. Carinata oil converted to drop-in fuel using an American Society for Testing and Materials approved Catalytic Hydrothermolysis process has been successfully tested in commercial and military aviation. Carinata meal, the residue after oil extraction, is a high-protein feed supplement for livestock, poultry, and swine, and can also yield specialty products. The Southeast Partnership for Advanced Renewables from Carinata (SPARC) is a public–private partnership formed with a twofold mission: (1) Removing physical, environmental, social, and economic constraints that prevent regional intensification of carinata production as a low-carbon feedstock for renewable fuel and coproducts and (2) demonstrating enhanced value across the entire value chain by mitigating risk to farmers and other stakeholders. The partnership's goal is to energize the US bioeconomy through sustainable agriculture and thus contribute to energy security and economic diversification. SPARC relies on a combination of cutting-edge multidisciplinary research and active industry engagement to facilitate adoption of the crop. This involves informing stakeholders along the entire supply chain, from producers to end-users, policymakers, influencers, and the public, about the opportunities and best practices related to carinata. This article provides context and background concerning carinata commercialization as a winter cash crop in the Southeast US for renewable fuels and bioproducts. The advances made to date in the areas of feedstock development, fuel and coproduct development, meal valorization, supply chain logistics, and stakeholder engagement are outlined.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

BEPAM Model Code and CABBI Simulation Results for "Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel"

This dataset consists of various input data that are used in the GAMS model. All the data are in the format of .inc which can be read within GAMS or Notepad. Main data sources include: acreage data (acre), crop budget data ($/acre), crop yield data (e.g. bushel/acre), Soil carbon sequestration data (KgCO2/ha/yr). Model details can be found in the "Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel" and GAMS model package. ## File Description (1) GAMS Model.zip: This includes all the input files and scripts for running the model (2) Table*.csv: These files include the data from the tables in the manuscript (3) Figure2_3_4.csv: This contains the data used to create the figures in the manuscript (4) BaselineResults.csv: This includes a summary of the model results. (5) SensitivityResults_*.csv: Model results from the various sensitivity analyses performed (6) LUC_emission.csv: land use change emissions by crop reporting district for changes of pasturelands to annual crops.

Anticipated baseline approach↗

DOE OSTI2023

Code and Data for "Quantifying Uncertainties in Greenhouse Gas Savings and Mitigation Costs with Cellulosic Biofuels"

Use of cellulosic biofuels from non-feedstocks are modeled using the BEPAM (Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model) model to quantifying the uncertainties about induced land use change effects, net greenhouse gas saving potential, and economic costs. The code is in GAMS, general algebraic modeling language. NOTE: Column 3 is titled "BAU" in "merged_BAU.gdx", "merged_RFS.gdx", and "merged_CEM.gdx", but contains "RFS" data in "merged_RFS.gdx" and "CEM" data in "merged_CEM.gdx".

BEPAM↗

DOE OSTI2026

1995 OMPO Model Development Project

The 1995 Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization (OMPO) Model Development Project for Oahu Island was intended to document how Oahu residents use the streets, highways, and transit services in the region. These data were used to develop the Travel Demand Forecasting Model, which is used to forecast the traffic impacts of various land use changes. The survey collected complete travel information of 4,060 Oahu households for a 24-hour period, including demographic and socioeconomic data.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2020

Project "Cropland Abandonment Mapping" (Final Report)

Cropland abandonment is a common type of land-use change across the globe and can be caused by a range of social, economic, and environmental factors. Cropland abandonment has wide-ranging effects on the environment, especially on biodiversity and carbon storage. Despite the importance of cropland monitoring, cropland abandonment is difficult to map and not routinely monitored. In this project, we propose to investigate cropland abandonment using remote sensing technique for the application of carbon storage in Eurasia, where experienced extensive cropland abandonment because of drastic social-economic changes since the 1990s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation: U.S. 2020 Emissions Profile

This analysis expands upon previous life cycle analyses (LCAs) of natural gas systems performed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). It provides a complete inventory of emissions to air and water, water consumption, and land use change. These environmental burdens are detailed for all supply chain steps from natural gas production through natural gas distribution. This package includes the report, the NETL Natural Gas Model, and appendices that include several Excel workbooks and a python script to provide transparent access to the calculations and resulting data.<p>To access the NETL Natural Gas Lifecycle model, visit https://doi.org/10.18141/2476250.</p><p>To access the 2020 Report Appendices, visit https://doi.org/10.18141/2438472.</p>

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Climate-focused Life Cycle Assessments of Biochar Production by an ARTi Pyrolysis Reactor and an Air Burners CharBoss® Air Curtain Incinerator

This report presents a limited, dynamic, consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the climate impacts of two biochar production methods using wood as a feedstock. The two methods are a pyrolysis reactor supplied by ARTi (Des Moines, IA, https://www.arti.com/) and a T26 CharBoss® air curtain incinerator supplied by Air Burners, Inc. (Palm City, FL, https://airburners.com/). The underlying LCA methodology is described in a chapter by Singh et al. (2024) and implemented in the form of a workbook freely available as online Supplementary Material for the chapter. For the convenience of the reader, a pre-print version of the relevant portions of Singh et al. (2024) is attached as Appendix A to this report. Specific assumptions and calculations to obtain the input parameters used in this LCA for each production method are described in the Methodology section below. This implementation of the LCA considers emissions associated with biomass loading, comminution and conversion, biochar decay in soil, and the production and use of bioenergy generated during the conversion process. The LCA is “limited” in that upstream emissions associated with biomass production, harvest, transportation, and land-use change, as well as embodied emissions in equipment and facilities are not considered. Similarly, downstream emissions from biochar transport and incorporation into soil (i.e., tillage), and the impact of biochar soil amendments on soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (other than CO 2 from biochar decay in soil), soil organic carbon stocks, crop response, and surface albedo are not considered. As the intent is to compare different biochar production methods in a simple unbiased manner, the primary alternative biomass pathway for the LCA is immaculate combustion, which is the hypothetical instantaneous and complete conversion of carbon in the biomass to CO 2 at time zero without generation of any other greenhouse gases or aerosols (GHGAs) or any useful bioenergy. Use of this pathway provides relative values for the production methods and, when the embodied emissions are similar and the same feedstock is used, these relative values are reasonable approximations for those attained with a full LCA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗