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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Developing a Control Strategy for Minimum Airflow Setting Considering CO2 Level and Energy Consumption in a Variable Air Volume System

In an office building equipped with a Variable Air Volume (VAV) system, this paper introduces a novel method for controlling the minimum supply airflow fraction in each zone’s VAV box, having a capability to consider indoor CO2 level and energy consumption. The EnergyPlus simulation using the medium office prototype model was employed, which evaluated the performance of the energy and CO2 concentration for five VAV box airflow control strategies. The paper focuses on CO2 concentration-based airflow control method and compares it with other four methods including conventional single-max, reduced minimum single-max, demand-controlled ventilation(DCV), and dualmax control methods according to guidelines and common practices. The newly proposed control strategy directly correlates the minimum airflow fraction to CO2 concentration. A general trend emerged when comparing CO2 concentrations—lower minimum airflow fractions were associated with higher concentrations. The proposed control method effectively maintained low CO2 concentrations and enabled a lower airflow fraction contributing to energy consumption reduction. It was confirmed that heating energy consumption in climate zone 4A, 5B, and 6A showed a maximum saving of approximately 30% compared to the conventional single-max and dual max control strategies. It was found that cooling energy consumption in climate zone 4A and 6A can achieve a maximum saving of approximately 10% compared to the conventional control strategies. The proposed CO2 concentration-based control logic is promising as it not only improves the indoor air quality lowering the CO2 concentration in the occupied spaces, but also contributes to HVAC energy savings.

Lee, Jong Man↗
DOE OSTI2020

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Sensor Count and Placement to Detect Bond Wire Lift-Offs and Surface Defects in High-Power IGBT Modules Using Low-Cost Piezo-Electric Resonators

This manuscript presents the most recent results and findings to identify bond wire lift-offs and surface defects in high-power isolated gate bipolar junction transistor (IGBT) modules. The authors of this manuscript formerly proposed a low-cost, piezoelectric resonator-based measurement unit to detect bond wire related degradation in larger IGBT modules. Since high-power IGBT modules are expensive, it was apparent that evaluating our proposed method by inducing controlled damage to fresh (new) IGBTs may not be cost-effective especially when multiple sets of data need to be captured by inducing damage to different levels. In order to overcome this limitation, IGBT bond wires have been mimicked using a 3D printed enclosure, a PCB, and copper wires with dimensions very closely resembling a real IGBT. Using this method, multiple test devices can be built at the cost of a real IGBT, and the proposed technique could be fine-tuned without damaging expensive, real IGBTs. Our recent findings can be used to determine real IGBT degradation and bond wire lift-offs using only two sensors, as opposed to six transducers used in the first iteration of the setup. In addition to optimizing the sensor count, we have also identified the best possible locations of these sensors by attempting multiple placements inside the IGBT casing.

condition monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2017

Constraints on Galactic Neutrino Emission with Seven Years of IceCube Data

The origins of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos remain a mystery despite extensive searches for their sources. We present constraints from seven years of IceCube Neutrino Observatory muon data on the neutrino flux coming from the Galactic plane. This flux is expected from cosmic-ray interactions with the interstellar medium or near localized sources. Two methods were developed to test for a spatially extended flux from the entire plane, both of which are maximum likelihood fits but with different signal and background modeling techniques. We consider three templates for Galactic neutrino emission based primarily on gamma-ray observations and models that cover a wide range of possibilities. Based on these templates and in the benchmark case of an unbroken E{sup −2.5} power-law energy spectrum, we set 90% confidence level upper limits, constraining the possible Galactic contribution to the diffuse neutrino flux to be relatively small, less than 14% of the flux reported in Aartsen et al. above 1 TeV. A stacking method is also used to test catalogs of known high-energy Galactic gamma-ray sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

MFANS 2024 - Formally Proving Characteristics of Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are engineered systems that rely on the smooth integration of computational algorithms and physical elements. This integration presents new challenges for verifying that systems will behave as expected. The goal of this presentation is to present current challenges and potential solutions for the formal verification of cyber-physical systems. For cyber systems, formal methods refer to systematically rigorous mathematical techniques employed in the specification, development, analysis, and verification of both software and hardware systems. Recent advancements in computer science have yielded sophisticated tools specifically designed to address challenges associated with formal methods in complex systems. These tools leverage various foundational concepts such as logic, formal languages, program semantics, type systems, type theory, and automata theory. A notable achievement in the application of formal methods is the seL4 microkernel, claimed to be the first general-purpose operating-system kernel to be verified. Its proof implies the absence of bugs and guarantees that the kernel meets specifications. For physical systems, dynamic and control theory has a history of using rigorous analytic techniques to prove functional correctness. Lyapunov, optimal, classical, modern, and robust control theories all provide rigorous mathematical methods both to analyze system performance and to design controller that can be guaranteed to meet certain objectives. Recent computational techniques like level set theory and reachability analysis provide assertions that a system's state will avoid unsafe regions. Even though success has been independently achieved for cyber systems and physical systems, the integration of such systems creates new challenges. In particular, there is an obvious discrepancy between finite-state machines and infinite-state systems, resulting in different approaches for modeling and analyzing these system. While it is possible to simulate hybrid systems, this provides only a demonstration of a performance and not proof. For hybrid systems, current formal methods and system analysis approaches typically require a workarounds to work on hybrid systems like CPS. This paper will outline the state of the art and limits of current practice for formally verifying CPS and will identify possible research directions that require attention.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radiocarbon analysis as a method for verifying atmospheric CO 2 uptake during carbon mineralization

Sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 is required to constrain the warming of Earth’s climate. Carbon mineralization refers to the precipitation of carbonate minerals by reaction of CO 2 and Mg- and Ca-rich rocks; if the source of the CO 2 is atmospheric and the precipitated carbonate is protected from subsequent dissolution, this process at sufficient scale may be able to reliably draw down atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. Such reactions occur passively in ultramafic settings and previous work has demonstrated that they actively draw down local CO 2 (g) concentrations. However, a method for unambiguously attributing the sequestered carbon solid product to atmospheric sources is still lacking. Here, we test if radiocarbon can be used to verify that the carbon being incorporated into carbonate minerals during carbon mineralization is atmospheric in origin. Additionally, samples from recently exposed ultramafic sites are analyzed and the results demonstrate the utility of this technique for verifying true atmospheric carbon reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Direct Numerical Simulation of Pore-Level Events to Improve Pore-Network Models for Prediction of Residual Trapping of CO2

Direct numerical simulation and pore-network modeling are common approaches to study the physics of two-phase flow through natural rocks. For assessment of the long-term performance of geological sequestration of CO 2 , it is important to model the full drainage-imbibition cycle to provide an accurate estimate of the trapped CO 2 . While direct numerical simulation using pore geometry from micro-CT rock images accurately models two-phase flow physics, it is computationally prohibitive for large rock volumes. On the other hand, pore-network modeling on networks extracted from micro-CT rock images is computationally efficient but utilizes simplified physics in idealized geometric pore elements. This study uses the lattice-Boltzmann method for direct numerical simulation of CO 2 -brine flow in idealized pore elements to develop a new set of pore-level flow models for the pore-body filling and snap-off events in pore-network modeling of imbibition. Lattice-Boltzmann simulations are conducted on typical idealized pore-network configurations, and the interface evolution and local capillary pressure are evaluated to develop modified equations of local threshold capillary pressure of pore elements as a function of shape factor and other geometrical parameters. The modified equations are then incorporated into a quasi-static pore-network flow solver. The modified model is applied on extracted pore-network of sandstone samples, and saturation of residual trapped CO 2 is computed for a drainage-imbibition cycle. The modified model yields different statistics of pore-level events compared with the original model; in particular, the occurrence of snap-off in pore-throats is reduced resulting in a more frontal displacement pattern along the main injection direction. Compared to the original model, the modified model is in closer agreement with the residual trapped CO 2 obtained from core flow experiments and direct numerical simulation.

Kohanpur, Amir H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF COMPOSITE METHODS: A G4MP2 METHOD WITH G4-LIKE ACCURACY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MACHINE LEARNING

G4MP2 theory has proven to be a reliable and accurate quantum chemical composite method for the calculation of molecular energies using an approximation based on second-order perturbation theory to lower computational costs compared to G4 theory. However, it has been found to have significantly increased errors when applied to larger organic molecules with 10 or more nonhydrogen atoms. We report here on an investigation of the cause of the failure of G4MP2 theory for such larger molecules. One source of error is found to be the "higher-level correction (HLC)", which is meant to correct for deficiencies in correlation contributions to the calculated energies. This is because the HLC assumes that the contribution is independent of the element and the type of bonding involved, both of which become more important with larger molecules. We address this problem by adding an atom-specific correction, dependent on atom type but not bond type, to the higher-level correction. We find that a G4MP2 method that incorporates this modification of the higher-level correction, referred to as G4MP2A, becomes as accurate as G4 theory (for computing enthalpies of formation) for a test set of molecules with less than 10 nonhydrogen atoms as well as a set with 10-14 such atoms, the set of molecules considered here, with a much lower computational cost. The G4MP2A method is also found to significantly improve ionization potentials and electron affinities. Finally, we implemented the G4MP2A energies in a machine learning method to predict molecular energies.

Dandu, Naveen↗
DOE OSTI2023

WeakIdent: Weak formulation for identifying differential equation using narrow-fit and trimming

Data-driven identification of differential equations is an interesting but challenging problem, especially when the given data are corrupted by noise. When the governing differential equation is a linear combination of various differential terms, the identification problem can be formulated as solving a linear system, with the feature matrix consisting of linear and nonlinear terms multiplied by a coefficient vector. This product is equal to the time derivative term, and thus generates dynamical behaviors. The goal is to identify the correct terms that form the equation to capture the dynamics of the given data. We propose a general and robust framework to recover differential equations using a weak formulation with two new mechanisms, narrow-fit and trimming, for both ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs and PDEs). The weak formulation facilitates an efficient and robust way to handle noise, and two new mechanisms, narrow-fit and trimming, improve the coefficient support and value recoveries respectively. For each sparsity level, Subspace Pursuit is utilized to find an initial set of support from the large dictionary. Then, we focus on highly dynamic regions (rows of the feature matrix), and error normalize the feature matrix in the narrow-fit step. The support is further updated via trimming the terms that contribute the least. Finally, the support set of features with the smallest Cross-Validation error is chosen as the result. A comprehensive set of numerical experiments are presented for both systems of ODEs and PDEs with various noise levels. The proposed method gives a robust recovery of the coefficients, and a significant denoising effect which can handle up to 100% noise-to-signal ratio for some equations. We compare the proposed method with several state-of-the-art algorithms for the recovery of differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hardware-Conscious Optimization of the Quantum Toffoli Gate

While quantum computing holds great potential in combinatorial optimization, electronic structure calculation, and number theory, the current era of quantum computing is limited by noisy hardware. Many quantum compilation approaches can mitigate the effects of imperfect hardware by optimizing quantum circuits for objectives such as critical path length. Few approaches consider quantum circuits in terms of the set of vendor-calibrated operations (i.e., native gates) available on target hardware. This manuscript expands the analytical and numerical approaches for optimizing quantum circuits at this abstraction level. We present a procedure for combining the strengths of analytical native gate-level optimization with numerical optimization. Although we focus on optimizing Toffoli gates on the IBMQ native gate set, the methods presented are generalizable to any gate and superconducting qubit architecture. Our optimized Toffoli gate implementation demonstrates an 18% reduction in infidelity compared with the canonical implementation as benchmarked on IBM Jakarta with quantum process tomography. Assuming the inclusion of multi-qubit cross-resonance (MCR) gates in the IBMQ native gate set, we produce Toffoli implementations with only six multi-qubit gates, a 25% reduction from the canonical eight multi-qubit implementations for linearly connected qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

TopoSZ: Preserving Topology in Error-Bounded Lossy Compression

Existing error-bounded lossy compression techniques control the pointwise error during compression to guarantee the integrity of the decompressed data. However, they typically do not explicitly preserve the topological features in data. When performing post hoc analysis with decompressed data using topological methods, preserving topology in the compression process to obtain topologically consistent and correct scientific insights is desirable. In this paper, we introduce TopoSZ, an error-bounded lossy compression method that preserves the topological features in 2D and 3D scalar fields. Specifically, we aim to preserve the types and locations of local extrema as well as the level set relations among critical points captured by contour trees in the decompressed data. The main idea is to derive topological constraints from contour-tree-induced segmentation from the data domain, and incorporate such constraints with a customized error-controlled quantization strategy from the SZ compressor (version 1.4). In conclusion, our method allows users to control the pointwise error and the loss of topological features during the compression process with a global error bound and a persistence threshold.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Noise robust detection of quantum phase transitions

Quantum computing allows for the manipulation of highly correlated states whose properties quickly go beyond the capacity of any classical method to calculate. Thus one natural problem which could lend itself to quantum advantage is the study of ground-states of condensed matter models, and the transitions between them. However, current levels of hardware noise can require extensive application of error-mitigation techniques to achieve reliable computations. In this work, we use several IBM devices to explore a finite-size spin model with multiple “phaselike” regions characterized by distinct ground-state configurations. Using preoptimized Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) solutions, we demonstrate that in contrast to calculating the energy, where zero-noise extrapolation is required in order to obtain qualitatively accurate yet still unreliable results, calculations of the energy derivative, two-site spin correlation functions, and the fidelity susceptibility yield accurate behavior across multiple regions, even with minimal or no application of error-mitigation approaches. Taken together, these sets of observables could be used to identify level crossings in a simple, noise-robust manner which is agnostic to the method of ground state preparation. This work shows promising potential for near-term application to identifying quantum phase transitions, including avoided crossings and nonadiabatic conical intersections in electronic structure calculations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Lively, Kevin (ORCID:0000000320981494)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Searches for lepton-flavour-violating decays of the Higgs boson into $eτ$ and $μτ$ in $ \sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents direct searches for lepton flavour violation in Higgs boson decays, H → eτ and H → μτ, performed using data collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The searches are based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb –1 . Leptonic (τ → ℓν ℓ ν τ ) and hadronic (τ → hadrons ν τ ) decays of the τ-lepton are considered. Two background estimation techniques are employed: the MC-template method, based on data-corrected simulation samples, and the Symmetry method, based on exploiting the symmetry between electrons and muons in the Standard Model backgrounds. No significant excess of events is observed and the results are interpreted as upper limits on lepton-flavour-violating branching ratios of the Higgs boson. The observed (expected) upper limits set on the branching ratios at 95% confidence level, $\mathcal{B}$(H → eτ) < 0.20% (0.12%) and $\mathcal{B}$(H → μτ ) < 0.18% (0.09%), are obtained with the MC-template method from a simultaneous measurement of potential H → eτ and H → μτ signals. The best-fit branching ratio difference, $\mathcal{B}$(H → μτ) → $\mathcal{B}$(H → eτ), measured with the Symmetry method in the channel where the τ-lepton decays to leptons, is (0.25 ± 0.10)%, compatible with a value of zero within 2.5σ.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Efficient Evaluation of the Exchange Correlation Potential on Graphics Processing Unit Clusters

The predominance of Kohn–Sham density functional theory (KS-DFT) for the theoretical treatment of large experimentally relevant systems in molecular chemistry and materials science relies primarily on the existence of efficient software implementations which are capable of leveraging the latest advances in modern high-performance computing (HPC). With recent trends in HPC leading toward increasing reliance on heterogeneous accelerator-based architectures such as graphics processing units (GPU), existing code bases must embrace these architectural advances to maintain the high levels of performance that have come to be expected for these methods. In this work, we purpose a three-level parallelism scheme for the distributed numerical integration of the exchange-correlation (XC) potential in the Gaussian basis set discretization of the Kohn–Sham equations on large computing clusters consisting of multiple GPUs per compute node. In addition, we purpose and demonstrate the efficacy of the use of batched kernels, including batched level-3 BLAS operations, in achieving high levels of performance on the GPU. We demonstrate the performance and scalability of the implementation of the purposed method in the NWChemEx software package by comparing to the existing scalable CPU XC integration in NWChem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Bench Scale Study of Coating Formulations for Abatement of Mercury Vapor and Recovery of Mercury Spills

A sealant formulation has been developed that effectively mitigates human exposure to elemental mercury vapor evolving from spilled mercury. The sealant may be dispensed using a fogging methodology (for industrial settings) or a common spray bottle (for home or school settings). In parallel, the potential for Hg recovery using strippable coatings was evaluated. Four liquid coatings were evaluated: one fogging fixative (FX2) developed at INL for the containment of surface and airborne contamination and three commercially available strippable decontamination gels (Carboset 441, Encor 449, and Stripcoat TLC Free). Bench scale mercury vapor abatement tests were conducted in an enclosure using FX2 with the addition of a mercury absorbent and a mercury reactant. Testing with FX2 showed the reactant contributed significantly to reducing the rate of mercury evaporation. The reactant had a minimal impact on the mercury evaporation rate for the strippable coatings. The potential of strippable coatings to remove/recover mercury was inferred from the adhesive and cohesive performance of sprayable dilutions of the coatings applied to porous and non-porous surfaces. Testing provided the following results: • Mercury vapor concentration was reduced by a factor of 40 using the reactant enhanced FX2 solution, as well as with dilutions of Carboset and Encor. Dilute Stripcoat was less effective at reducing Hg evaporation. • A 100× reduction in Hg evaporation rate was achieved using a coating of FX + the Hg reactant (a.k.a. FX Hg), compared to uncoated Hg. • A 2× reduction in the Hg vapor accumulation rate was achieved using FX Hg, compared to the strippable coatings. • Strippability and adhesion tests show that dilutions of Carboset and Stripcoat can be stripped from a variety of indoor surfaces. Dilute Encor was not strippable. Results suggest FX Hg and dilute Carboset will likely reduce Hg vapor concentrations, in an indoor setting, to a level at or below the Occupational Safety and Health Administration 8-hour human exposure limit (0.1 mg/m3). FX Hg dispensed via fogging would increase worker safety during remediation and demolition of industrial facilities with high levels of elemental mercury contamination. When applied via spray bottle, FX Hg may provide a safe and convenient method for the mitigation of Hg vapor in residential or commercial settings (e.g., offices, homes, schools). This approach would be most beneficial where recovery of the spilled Hg is impractical. A sprayed then stripped application of dilute Carboset may provide a safe and convenient method for recovery of small Hg spills in residential and commercial settings. Further testing is required to determine if liquid Hg sufficiently adheres to the strippable coating to be recovered in this way. If it can be dispensed as a fog, dilute Carboset could be employed to recover Hg contamination in industrial settings. Testing of the foggability of dilute Carboset is required to assess this potential.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calculating the grain boundary inclination of voxelated grain structures using a smoothing algorithm

We have developed a flexible method for calculating the grain boundary (GB) inclinations of voxelated grain structure data using smoothing algorithms. We compared the performance of four algorithms: the linear interpolation, Allen–Cahn, level-set, and vertex algorithms. We assessed their accuracy using 2D and 3D cases with known inclinations. The vertex algorithm provided the best balance between accuracy and efficiency for 2D structures while the linear interpolation algorithm provided the best balance for 3D structures. We compared the GB inclinations calculated using our smoothing method on a 3D high energy X-ray diffraction microscopy (HEDM) dataset to those determined by meshing the GBs. The two approaches determined similar GB plane distributions, though they varied significantly at triple junctions. In conclusion, the smoothing method was demonstrated for two sources of 3D voxelated grain structures: HEDM data and results from Monte Carlo Potts grain growth simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Active immunization using hand-push emulsification method increases the operator's risk of transcutaneous immunization

Highlights: • Researchers have the right to be told the relevant risks of immunological experiments. • Susceptible individuals to allergic diseases are suggested to be more careful when they perform immunological experiments. Setting up an animal model by using active immunization methods is a common means of studying immune-related diseases or producing antibodies with high titer and high activities. However, the security during the process of pathogen emulsification remains unclear. In a physical examination, we unexpectedly noticed high levels of angiotensin II type 1 receptor autoantibody (AT1-AA) specific to the immunizing antigen in the sera of some researchers who had participated in setting up active immunization animal models, and we were puzzled about the cause of AT1-AA production. In this study, we intended to investigate whether the emulsified antigen was the source of infection in these researchers, and if so, how to prevent it from occurring. AT1-AA was detected by advanced ELISA method. The participants presented higher levels of AT1-AA compared with non-participants of the same laboratory. This phenomenon remained that some factors during the process of rat model establishment may contribute to AT1-AA production. Animal and glove penetration studies indicated the emulsified antigen infection was attributed to neither aerosol or fur touch nor penetrating through gloves. However, AT1-AA level was largely decreased in the participants after they used an automatic emulsification device. Because of the strong permeability of the adjuvant, we speculated that emulsified antigen might get access to the unprotected skin of the participants accidentally during the immunization process. These results demonstrated that accidental contacts of emulsified antigens may infect researchers during the process of traditional hand-push emulsification, resulting in high specific autoantibody levels, which can be prevented by using appropriate tools.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond pinball loss: Quantile methods for calibrated uncertainty quantification

Amongthemanywaysofquantifying uncertainty in a regression setting, specifying the full quantile function is attractive, as quantiles are amenable to interpretation and evaluation. A model that predicts the true conditional quantiles for each input, at all quantile levels, presents a correct and efficient representation of the underlying uncertainty. To achieve this, many current quantile-based methods focus on optimizing the pinball loss. However, this loss restricts the scope of applicable regression models, limits the ability to target many desirable properties (e.g. calibration, sharpness, centered intervals), and may produce poor conditional quantiles. In this work, we develop new quantile methods that address these shortcomings. In particular, we propose methods that can apply to any class of regression model, select an explicit balance between calibration and sharpness, optimize for calibration of centered intervals, and produce more accurate conditional quantiles. We provide a thorough experimental evaluation of our methods, which includes a high dimensional uncertainty quantification task in nuclear fusion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗