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X-ray emission at the low-mass end - Results from an extensive Einstein Observatory survey

We have used available IPC data and a critical compilation of cataloged optical data to measure the 0.16-3.5 keV X-ray emission from 88 K and 169 M stars of luminosity classes IV, V, and VI within 25 pc from the Sun. The IPC detected 54 out of the 88 K stars, 70 out of the 138 M stars with M(v) less than 13.4, and 15 out of the 31 fainter M stars. We have identified a subsample of surveyed stars that is statistically representative of the population of K and M stars in the solar neighborhood. On the basis of this subsample (1) we have shown the occurrence of a drop in the level of X-ray emission for M stars later than approximately M5; (2) we have built unbiased maximum likelihood X-ray luminosity functions for the K, early M, and late M stars; (3) we have confirmed, both for K and M stars, the decrease of X-ray luminosity with increasing stellar age in the range of ages of disk population stars: and (4) we have shown that no obvious correlation is present between X-ray and bolometric luminosities in the entire representative samples of K and M stars, but only within flare stars which also seem to mark a saturation in X-ray luminosity level.

Barbera, M.

Computer program reduces calculation time of normal response functions

FORTRAN 2 computer program rapidly calculates parameters of maximum likelihood estimates from sensitivity experiment data populations. The program uses the Newton-Raphson iterative procedure to calculate the mean and standard deviation of portions of the cumulative normal response function.

Alexander, M. J.

Problem Complexity and LLM: H-M Team Reliability in Challenging Environments

In traditional human-machine operations, the functional decomposition of actions and responsibilities among various agents is assigned a priori. For instance, in current air traffic operations, although assisted by software, human pilots have the ultimate control of aircraft. Multiagent human-machine and machine-machine systems will face problems of varying and potentially unpredicted complexity in future challenging scenarios of planetary, en route, and orbital activities. Hence, it is important to enable dynamic transfer of decision-making to appropriate team members, human or machine, depending on which agent is best equipped to solve that specific problem on a time budget. In this paper, we consider aspects of problem-solving and its modeling that affect the outcomes of decision-making as a function of solution quality and the likelihood of solving the problem on a required time budget. We focus on Large Language Models (LLM) as potential machine teammates and conclude that practical, predictive modeling of their performance, at the current stage of their development, is infeasible. Simple examples help us illustrate that current LLM will require fundamental advancements to provide reliable support in team decision-making, especially in safety-critical and time-critical domains. The study is not meant to diminish the value of the remarkable capabilities of LLM, but rather to gain a better understanding of the technology’s appropriate use and the needed additions.

function allocation

Magnetic character of the low-energy enhancement in 70 Zn

The transition of an atomic nucleus from an excited state to a state of lower energy is typically accompanied by the emission of photons. The likelihood of photon emission is a function of the photon energy and of properties of the initial and final nuclear states and is known as the photon (or γ-ray) strength function (γSF). Of the features present in the γSF, an enhancement in the low-energy region has been observed in some nuclei, but the electromagnetic nature of this enhancement remains an open question. This low-energy enhancement in the γSF significantly impacts our understanding of how elements are created in stars and the structure of the nucleus. Here we present the results from an experiment on the γSF of 70 Zn that show that the enhancement in the γSF of this nucleus is of magnetic nature. This observation helps address a long-open question about γSFs in atomic nuclei and directly impacts our predictive capabilities in nuclear science.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics

Analytical evaluation of tilting proprotor wind tunnel test requirements

Specific test requirements related to the wind tunnel testing of the XV-15 advanced tilt rotor research aircraft were determined. The following analytical tools were developed: (1) digital simulation of the XV-15, incorporating a simplified tunnel support model, control system loop, measurement lags, gust disturbances, and sensor noise, (2) specialization of existing data analysis programs to the high order XV-15 dynamical model (transfer function program, a time series analysis program, an advanced maximum likelihood parameter identification program), (3) several auxiliary programs to provide estimates of damping from transfer functions as well as calculations of model decomposition of system response. The following results were discussed: (1) modelling of the aircraft, instrumentation, and controls, (2) results of the rotor/cantilever wing model and coupled wing, (3) examples of data prediction with system identification techniques, and (4) detailed conclusions and recommendations.

Hall, W. E., Jr.

Subsonic stability and control flight test results of the Space Shuttle /tail cone off/

The subsonic stability and control testing of the Space Shuttle Orbiter in its two test flights in the tailcone-off configuration is discussed, and test results are presented. Flight test maneuvers were designed to maximize the quality and quantity of stability and control data in the minimal time allotted using the Space Shuttle Functional Simulator and the Modified Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MMLE) programs, and coefficients were determined from standard sensor data sets using the MMLE, despite problems encountered in timing due to the different measurement systems used. Results are included for lateral directional and longitudinal maneuvers as well as the Space Shuttle aerodynamic data base obtained using the results of wind tunnel tests. The flight test data are found to permit greater confidence in the data base since the differences found are well within control system capability. It is suggested that the areas of major differences, including lateral directional data with open speedbrake, roll due to rudder and normal force due to elevon, be investigated in any further subsonic flight testing. Improvements in sensor data and data handling techniques for future orbital test flights are indicated.

Cooke, D. R.

The Einstein Observatory survey of stars in the Hyades cluster region

The paper reports the results of an extensive X-ray study of the Hyades region and improves on previous studies by using refined X-ray source detection algorithms and the complete set of Einstein Observatory IPC exposures covering the Hyades cluster region (a total of 63 1 x 1 deg images). Maximum likelihood integral X-ray luminosity functions were computed for the Hyades stars for given color index (B-V) ranges. The present results agree substantially with a previous survey about the ubiquity of the stellar activity in the Hyades cluster, especially among solar-type stars. The result of Stern et al. (1981) that stellar X-ray emission is dependent on stellar age is confrimed.

Micela, G.

X-ray studies of coeval star samples. II - The Pleiades cluster as observed with the Einstein Observatory

Coronal X-ray emission of the Pleiades stars is investigated, and maximum likelihood, integral X-ray luminosity functions are computed for Pleiades members in selected color-index ranges. A detailed search is conducted for long-term variability in the X-ray emission of those stars observed more than once. An overall comparison of the survey results with those of previous surveys confirms the ubiquity of X-ray emission in the Pleiades cluster stars and its higher rate of emission with respect to older stars. It is found that the X-ray emission from dA and early dF stars cannot be proven to be dissimilar to that of Hyades and field stars of the same spectral type. The Pleiades cluster members show a real rise of the X-ray luminosity from dA stars to early dF stars. X-ray emission for the young, solarlike Pleiades stars is about two orders of magnitude more intense than for the nearby solarlike stars.

Micela, G.

Anisotropy in the microwave sky at intermediate angular scales

Observations of a low-background region of sky at high Galactic latitude in a frequency band centered at nu = 90 GHz reveal highly significant detections of anisotropy on intermediate (aprroximately 1 deg) angular scales. The instrument is a 2 x 2 array of bolometric detectors operating at 50 mK, coupled to a 0.75 m off-axis parabolic telescope by single-mode corrugated feedhorns. The FWHM beamwidth of the instrument is 0.75 deg, with a beamswitch of +/- 2.75 deg on the sky. Interpreting the detected fluctuations as due to anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background, a likelihood analysis assuming a Gaussian correlation function in the temperature fluctuations yields most likely values of (delta T)/T of 3.1(sub -0.9)(sup +2.5) x 10(exp -5) and 3.8(sub -1.2)(sup +2.9) x 10(exp -5) at a coherence angle of 1.0 deg, for the left- and right-hand detectors, respectively. The stated errors are 95% confidence limits. Confirmation at other frequencies is required to rule out the possibility of foreground contamination.

Dragovan, M.

Statistical inference of static analysis rules

Various apparatus and methods are disclosed for identifying errors in program code. Respective numbers of observances of at least one correctness rule by different code instances that relate to the at least one correctness rule are counted in the program code. Each code instance has an associated counted number of observances of the correctness rule by the code instance. Also counted are respective numbers of violations of the correctness rule by different code instances that relate to the correctness rule. Each code instance has an associated counted number of violations of the correctness rule by the code instance. A respective likelihood of the validity is determined for each code instance as a function of the counted number of observances and counted number of violations. The likelihood of validity indicates a relative likelihood that a related code instance is required to observe the correctness rule. The violations may be output in order of the likelihood of validity of a violated correctness rule.

Engler, Dawson Richards

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disk Herniation

BACKGROUND: A previous study [1] reported that the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulposus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNP's occurred well into astronauts' careers or in some cases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. The purpose of this study was to support the Human System Risk Board assessment of back pain, evaluate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the previous dataset which contained events up to December 31, 2006. METHODS: Data was queried from the electronic medical record and provided by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health. The data included all 330 United States astronauts from 1959 through February 2014. Cases were confirmed by Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computerized Tomography, Myelography, operative findings, or through clinical confirmation with a neurologist or neurosurgeon. In this analysis, astronauts who had an HNP at selection into the corps or had an HNP diagnosis prior to their first flight were excluded. The statistical challenges in using the available data to separate effects of spaceflight from those associated with general astronaut training and lifestyle on propensity to develop HNPs are many. The primary outcome is reported date of first HNP (if any), which at best is only an approximation to the actual time of occurrence. To properly analyze this data with a survival analysis model, one must also know the "exposure" time - i.e. how long each astronaut has been at risk for developing an HNP. If an HNP is reported soon after a mission, is it mission caused or general? If the former, exposure time should be counted from the time of landing (assuming the risk of HNP occurring during a mission is zero). If the latter, exposure time should be counted from the time of selection; however we can't directly know which one to use. In our analysis we take both of these possibilities into account with a competing risks model, wherein two distinct stochastic processes are going on: TG = time to HNP (general) and TS = time to HNP (spaceflight). Under this type of model, whichever of these occurs first is what we observe; in other words we don't observe TG or TS, only min(TG, TS). Here, we parameterized the model in terms of separate Weibull hazard functions for each process and estimated all parameters using maximum likelihood. In addition, we allowed for a "cured fraction" - i.e. the possibility that some astronauts may never develop an HNP. RESULTS: Results will include a depiction of the competing hazard functions as well as a probability curve for the relative likelihood that an HNP reported at a given time after a mission is actually mission caused. Other factors, such as dwell time in microgravity and vehicle landing environment will be explored. An overall assessment as to whether spaceflight truly exacerbates HNP risk will be made.

Feiveson, A. H.

Estimation of proportions in mixed pixels through their region characterization

A region of mixed pixels can be characterized through the probability density function of proportions of classes in the pixels. Using information from the spectral vectors of a given set of pixels from the mixed pixel region, expressions are developed for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of probability density functions of proportions. The proportions of classes in the mixed pixels can then be estimated. If the mixed pixels contain objects of two classes, the computation can be reduced by transforming the spectral vectors using a transformation matrix that simultaneously diagonalizes the covariance matrices of the two classes. If the proportions of the classes of a set of mixed pixels from the region are given, then expressions are developed for obtaining the estmates of the parameters of the probability density function of the proportions of mixed pixels. Development of these expressions is based on the criterion of the minimum sum of squares of errors. Experimental results from the processing of remotely sensed agricultural multispectral imagery data are presented.

Chittineni, C. B.

A study of parameter identification

A set of definitions for deterministic parameter identification ability were proposed. Deterministic parameter identificability properties are presented based on four system characteristics: direct parameter recoverability, properties of the system transfer function, properties of output distinguishability, and uniqueness properties of a quadratic cost functional. Stochastic parameter identifiability was defined in terms of the existence of an estimation sequence for the unknown parameters which is consistent in probability. Stochastic parameter identifiability properties are presented based on the following characteristics: convergence properties of the maximum likelihood estimate, properties of the joint probability density functions of the observations, and properties of the information matrix.

Herget, C. J.

Cosmic temperature fluctuations from two years of COBE differential microwave radiometers observations

The first two years of Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometers (DMR) observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy are analyzed and compared with our previously published first year results. The results are consistent, but the addition of the second year of data increases the precision and accuracy detected CMB temperature fluctuations. The 2 yr 53 GHz data are characterized by rms temperature fluctuations of (delta-T)(sub rms) (7 deg) = 44 +/- 7 micro-K and (delta-T)(sub rms) (10 deg) = 30.5 +/- 2.7 micro-K at 7 deg and 10 deg angular resolution, respectively. The 53 x 90 GHz cross-correlation amplitude at zero lag is C(0)(sup 1/2) = 36 +/- 5 micro-K (68% CL) for the unsmoothed (7 deg resolution) DMR data. We perform a likelihood analysis of the cross-correlation function, with Monte Carlo simulations to infer biases of the method, for a power-law model of initial density fluctuations, P(k) proportional to R(exp n). The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that derived estimates of n are biased by +0.11 +/- 0.01, while the subset of simulations with a low quadrupole (as observed) indicate a bias of +0.31+/- 0.04. Derived values for 68% confidence intervals are given corrected (and not corrected) for our estimated biases. Including the quadrupole anisotropy, the most likely quadrupole-normalized amplitude is Q(sub rms-PS) = 14.3(sup + 5.2 sub -3.3) micro-K (12.8(sup + 5.2 sub -3.3) micro-K0 with a spectral index n = 1.42(sup + 0.49 sub -0.55)(n = 1.53(sup + 0.49 sub -0.55). With n fixed to 1.0 the most likely amplitude is 18.2 +/- 11.5 micro-K (17.4 +/- 1.5 micro-K). The marginal likelihood of n is 1.42 +/- 0.37 (1.53 +/- 0.37). Excluding the quadrupole anisotropy, the most likely quadrupole-normalized amplitude is Q(sub rms-PS) = 17.4(sup + 7.5 sub -5.2) micro-K (15.8(sup + 7.5 sub -5.2) micro-K) with a spectral index n = 1.11(sup + 0.60 sub -0.55) (n = 1.22(sup + 0.60 sub -0.55). With n fixed to 1.0 the most likely amplitude is 18.6 +/- 1.6 micro-K (18.2 +/- 1.6 micro-K). The marginal likelihood of n is 1.11 +/- 0.40 (1.22 +/- 0.40). Our best estimate of the dipole from the 2 yr DMR data is 3.363 +/- 0.024 mK toward Galactic coordinates (l, b) = (264.4 deg +/- 0.2 deg, 48.1 deg +/- 0.4 deg), and our best estimate of the rms quadrupole amplitude in our sky is 6 +/- 3 micro-K (68% CL).

Bennett, C. L.

Impact of Gender on Pharmocokinetics of Intranasal Scopolamine

Introduction: An intranasal gel dosage formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness (SMS), which is commonly experienced by astronauts during space missions. The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were evaluated under IND guidelines. Since information is lacking on the effect of gender on the PK of Scopolamine, we examined gender differences in PK parameters of INSCOP at three dose levels of 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg. Methods: Plasma scopolamine concentrations as a function of time data were collected from twelve normal healthy human subjects (6 male/6 female) who participated in a fully randomized double blind crossover study. The PK parameters were derived using WinNonlin. Covariate analysis of PK profiles was performed using NONMEN and statistically compared using a likelihood ratio test on the difference of objective function value (OFV). Statistical significance for covariate analysis was set at P<0.05(ΔOFV=3.84). Results: No significant difference in PK parameters between male and female subjects was observed with 0.1 and 0.2 mg doses. However, CL and Vd were significantly different between male and female subjects at the 0.4 mg dose. Results from population covariate modeling analysis indicate that a onecompartment PK model with first-order elimination rate offers best fit for describing INSCOP concentration-time profiles. The inclusion of sex as a covariate enhanced the model fitting (ΔOFV=-4.1) owing to the genderdependent CL and Vd differences after the 0.4 mg dose. Conclusion: Statistical modeling of scopolamine concentration-time data suggests gender-dependent pharmacokinetics of scopolamine at the high dose level of 0.4 mg. Clearance of the parent compound was significantly faster and the volume of distribution was significantly higher in males than in females, As a result, including gender as a covariate to the pharmacokinetic model of scopolamine offers the best fit for PK modeling of the drug at dose of 0.4 mg or higher.

Putcha, L.

Characterization of Cloud Water-Content Distribution

The development of realistic cloud parameterizations for climate models requires accurate characterizations of subgrid distributions of thermodynamic variables. To this end, a software tool was developed to characterize cloud water-content distributions in climate-model sub-grid scales. This software characterizes distributions of cloud water content with respect to cloud phase, cloud type, precipitation occurrence, and geo-location using CloudSat radar measurements. It uses a statistical method called maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the probability density function of the cloud water content.

Lee, Seungwon