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NASA NTRS2022

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with the Wintertime Barents-Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents-Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents-Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, though turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6 to 10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Turbulent heat flux↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Rotation Procedure to Improve Seasonally Varying Empirical Orthogonal Function Bases for MJO Indices

Various indices have been defined to characterize the phase and amplitude of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). One widely used index is the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) based MJO index (OMI), which is calculated using the spatial pattern of 30-96-day eastward-filtered OLR. The EOFs used to calculate the OMI in observations are prone to degeneracy and exhibit oscillations on the order of 10-20 days, despite initial filtering of the OLR. We propose a simple modification to the OMI that involves aligning the EOFs between neighboring days while retaining the spatial pattern described by the EOFs. This rotation method is implemented as a postprocessing procedure of the current OMI calculation and cleanly removes the spurious oscillations and degeneracy issues seen in the standard method. A similar rotation procedure can be implemented in calculations of other MJO indices.

Sarah Weidman↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Propagation of the MJO and Associated Moist Dynamics, and the Advantages of Enhanced Resolution in NASA’s GEOS-S2S Forecast System

This presentation explores how reliably the NASA’s new subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast system represents the key features of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This system is a fully coupled global model that includes the components of atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The model runs at an approximate spatial resolution of 0.5 degree for the atmosphere and 0.25 degree for the ocean. It employs a two-moment cloud microphysics to enable aerosol-cloud interaction and implements a novel atmosphere-ocean interface layer to enhance the representation of the diurnal warm and cool-skin layer.

Young-Kwon Lim↗

NASA NTRS2023

ENSO and MJO Modulation of U.S. Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning substantially impacts human health and property. However, the relations between U.S. lightning activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), two predictable drivers of global climate variability, remain uncertain, in part because most lightning datasets have short records that cannot robustly reveal MJO- and ENSO-related patterns. To overcome this limitation, we developed an empirical model of 6-hourly lightning flash count over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) using environmental variables (convective available potential energy and precipitation) andNational Lightning Detection Network data for 2003–2016. This model is shown to reproduce the observed daily and seasonal variability of lightning over most of CONUS. Then, the empirical model was applied to construct a proxy lightning dataset for the period 1979–2021, which was used to investigate the summer MJO-lightning relationship at daily resolution and the winter-spring ENSO-lightning relationship at seasonal resolution. Overall, no robust relationship between MJO phase and lightning patterns was found when seasonality was taken into consideration. El Niño is associated with increased lightning activity over the Coastal Southeast U.S. during early winter, the Southwest during winter through spring, and the Northwest during late spring, whereas La Niña is associated with increased lightning activity over the Tennessee River Valley during winter.

Lightning↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Role of the Stratosphere in Teleconnections Arising From Fast and Slow MJO Episodes

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can influence the extratropical circulation on timescales up to several weeks, with a dependence on the MJO characteristics: MJO episodes that propagate slowly across the Maritime Continent have a stronger impact on Euro-Atlantic weather than fast MJO episodes. While the tropospheric pathway for MJO teleconnections with varying phase speeds is well understood, in this study, we investigate the contribution of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric pathway for fast versus slow MJO episodes. During slow MJO episodes, Phases 5–6 lead to increased upward wave propagation in the North Pacific sector, and subsequently enhanced heat flux at 100 hPa, leading to the weakening of the polar vortex. The results suggest a clear role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling for slow MJO episodes, which is proposed as a mechanism for anomalously strong positive polar cap height anomalies in MJO Phases 7–8.

Priyanka Yadav↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Propagation of the MJO and Associated Moist Dynamics, and the Advantages of Enhanced Resolution in NASA’s GEOS-S2S Forecast System

Young-Kwon Lim↗

NASA NTRS2024

Tropical Cyclones in the GEOS-S2S-2 Subseasonal Forecasts

This paper analyzes the climatology, prediction skill, and predictability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in NASA’s Global Earth Observing System Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system version 2. GEOS reasonably simulates the number and spatial distribution of TCs compared to observations except in the Atlantic where the model simulates too few TCs due to low genesis rates in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The environmental conditions, diagnosed through a genesis potential index, do not clearly explain model biases in the genesis rates, especially in the Atlantic. At the storm-scale, GEOS reforecasts replicate several key aspects of the thermodynamic and dynamic structure of observed TCs, such as a warm core and the secondary circulation. The model, however, fails to simulate an off-center eyewall when evaluating vertical velocity, precipitation and moisture. The analysis of prediction skill of TC genesis and occurrence shows that GEOS has comparable skill to other global models in WMO S2S archive and that its skill could be further improved by increasing the ensemble size. After calibration, GEOS forecasts are skillful in the Western North Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean up to 20 days in advance. A model-based predictability analysis demonstrates the importance of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a source of predictability of TC occurrence beyond the 14 day lead-time. Forecasts initialized under strong MJO conditions show evidence of predictability beyond week 3. However, due to model biases in the forecast distribution there are notable gaps between MJO-related prediction skill and predictability which require further study.

Jorge L. Garcia-Franco↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1

Abstract The present study examines the characteristics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events represented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), DOE’s new Earth system model. The coupled E3SMv1 realistically simulates the eastward propagation of precipitation and moist static energy (MSE) anomalies associated with the MJO. As in observations, horizontal moisture advection and longwave radiative feedback are found to be the dominant processes in E3SMv1 that lead to the eastward movement and maintenance of the MJO MSE anomalies, respectively. Modulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Maritime Continent region by the MJO is also well represented in the model despite systematic biases in the magnitude and phase of the precipitation diurnal cycle. On the MJO impact over the midlatitude, E3SMv1 reasonably captures the pattern of the MJO teleconnections across the North Pacific and North America, with improvement in the performance in a high‐resolution version, despite the magnitude being a bit weaker than the observed. Regarding the interannual variability of the MJO, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of the zonal extent of MJO’s eastward propagation, as well as associated changes in the mean state moisture gradient in the tropical west Pacific, are well reproduced in the model. However, MJO in E3SMv1 exhibits no sensitivity to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the MJO propagation characteristics being almost identical between easterly QBO and westerly QBO years. Processes that have been suggested as critical to MJO simulation are also examined by utilizing recently developed process‐oriented diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Convective Momentum Transport and Its Impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in E3SM‐MMF

Abstract Convective momentum transport (CMT) is the process of vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum by small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection. Traditional general circulation models (GCMs) and their multiscale modeling framework (MMF) versions poorly represent CMT due to insufficient information of subgrid‐scale flows at each GCM grid. Here the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme for representing CMT is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) with embedded 2‐D cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), and verified against E3SM‐MMF simulations with 3‐D CRMs and observations. The results show that representing CMT by ESMT helps reduce climatological mean precipitation model bias over the western Pacific and the ITCZ regions, which is attributed to the weakened mean easterlies over the Pacific. Also, CMT from simulations with 2‐D and 3‐D CRMs impose a similar impact on Kelvin waves by reducing their variability and slowing down their phase speed, but opposite impacts on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability. The ESMT scheme readily captures the climatological mean spatial patterns of the zonal and meridional components of CMT and their variability across multiple time scales, but shows some differences in estimating its magnitude. CMT mainly affects the MJO by decelerating its winds in the free troposphere, but accelerates its near‐surface winds. This study serves as a prototype for implementing CMT scheme in the MMF simulations, highlighting its crucial role in reducing model bias in mean state and spatiotemporal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cross‐Equatorial Surges Boost MJO's Southward Detour Over the Maritime Continent

Abstract The influence of the cross‐equatorial northerly surge (CES) on the eastward propagation of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is evaluated through the analysis of the column integrated moisture budget. Results show that the CES reinforces MJO's southward detour by increasing horizontal moisture convergence over the southern Maritime Continent (MC) region. Further analysis reveals that the zonal convergence by intraseasonal zonal wind anomalies acting upon background moisture is intensified in the presence of CES events, causing a stronger convective activity in the southern MC (SMC). The stronger moisture convergence in the SMC is associated with the CES‐induced intensification of low‐level northwesterly and westerly winds, which, in turn, strengthen zonal wind convergences and positive wind‐evaporation feedbacks onto the MJO convection. An improved process understanding of the link between the CES and MJO detours can help engender improvements in extreme weather forecasts and aid investigation biases in simulating MJO in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Seasonal Locking of the MJO’s Southward Detour of the Maritime Continent: The Role of the Australian Monsoon

Abstract This study investigates why the major convective envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) detours to the south of the Maritime Continent (MC) only during boreal winter [December–March (DJFM)]. To examine processes affecting this MJO detour, the MJO-related variance of precipitation and column-integrated moisture anomalies in DJFM are compared with those in the seasons before [October–November (ON)] and after [April–May (AM)]. While MJO precipitation variance is much higher in the southern MC (SMC) during DJFM than in other seasons, the MJO moisture variance is comparable among the seasons, implying that the seasonal locking of the MJO’s southward detour cannot be explained by the magnitude of moisture anomalies alone. The higher precipitation variance in the SMC region is partly explained by the much higher moisture sensitivity of precipitation in DJFM than in other seasons, resulting in a more efficient conversion of anomalous moisture to anomalous precipitation. DJFM is also distinguishable from the other seasons by stronger positive wind–evaporation feedback onto MJO precipitation anomalies due to the background westerly wind in the lower troposphere. It is found that the seasonal cycle of moisture–precipitation coupling and wind–evaporation feedback in the SMC region closely follows that of the Australian monsoon, which is active exclusively in DJFM. Our results suggest that the MJO’s southward detour in the MC is seasonally locked because it occurs preferentially when the Australian monsoon system produces a background state that is favorable for MJO development in the SMC.

Intraseasonal variability↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Surface Turbulence Flux Parameterizations on the MJO: The Role of Ocean Surface Waves

This study investigates the sensitivity of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to changes to the bulk flux parameterization and the role of ocean surface waves in air–sea coupling using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave model. The atmospheric and ocean model components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are coupled to a spectral wave model, WAVEWATCH III (WW3). Two experiments with wind speed–dependent bulk algorithms (NCAR and COARE3.0a) and one experiment with wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0a-WAV) were conducted. We modify COARE3.0a to include surface roughness calculated within WW3 and also account for the buffering effect of waves on the relative difference between air-side and ocean-side momentum flux. Differences in surface fluxes, primarily caused by discrepancies in drag coefficients, result in significant differences in MJO’s properties. While COARE3.0a has better convection–circulation coupling than NCAR, it exhibits anomalous MJO convection east of the date line. The wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0-WAV) improves the MJO representation over the default COARE3.0 algorithm. Strong easterlies over the Pacific Ocean in COARE3.0a enhance the latent heat flux (LHFLX). This is responsible for the anomalous MJO propagation after the date line. In COR3.0a-WAV, waves reduce the anomalous easterlies, leading to a decrease in LHFLX and MJO dissipation after the date line. These findings highlight the role of surface fluxes in MJO simulation fidelity. Most importantly, we show that the proper treatment of wave-induced effects in bulk flux parameterization improves the simulation of coupled climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Extratropical Pathway for the Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Influence on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Abstract This study investigates the combined impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and extratropical anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) on subseasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity and their physical connections. Our results show that during MJO phases 2–3 (enhanced Indian Ocean convection) and 6–7 (enhanced tropical Pacific convection), there are significant changes in basinwide TC activity. The MJO and AWB collaborate to suppress basinwide TC activity during phases 6–7 but not during phases 2–3. During phases 6–7, when AWB occurs, various TC metrics including hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy, and rapid intensification probability decrease by ∼50%–80%. Simultaneously, large-scale environmental variables, like vertical wind shear, precipitable water, and sea surface temperatures become extremely unfavorable for TC formation and intensification, compared to periods characterized by suppressed AWB activity during the same MJO phases. Further investigation reveals that AWB events during phases 6–7 occur in concert with the development of a stronger anticyclone in the lower troposphere, which transports more dry, stable extratropical air equatorward, and drives enhanced tropical SST cooling. As a result, individual AWB events in phases 6–7 can disturb the development of surrounding TCs to a greater extent than their phases 2–3 counterparts. The influence of the MJO on AWB over the western subtropical Atlantic can be attributed to the modulation of the convectively forced Rossby wave source over the tropical eastern Pacific. A significant number of Rossby waves initiating from this region during phases 5–6 propagate into the subtropical North Atlantic, preceding the occurrence of AWB events in phases 6–7.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Roles of Westward-Propagating Waves and the QBO in Limiting MJO Propagation

Abstract A recent study categorized the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter season into four types called stand, jump, slow, and fast MJO. This study focuses on the stand and jump MJO. Based on whether their convection penetrates the Maritime Continent (MC), stand and jump MJOs are seen as non-penetrating (NP) MJOs, while the other two are seen as eastward-penetrating (EP) MJOs. Results reveal the relative roles of the westward-propagating wave (WPW), as well as the QBO and ENSO, in limiting MJO propagation. Lack of the premoistening over the southern sea surface of the MC stops NP MJO from penetrating the MC. The active convection of the WPWs hinders the descending branch of the NP MJO circulation and therefore leads to the insufficient meridional advective moistening over the southern sea surface of the MC. The independent convection over the Pacific for jump MJOs is influenced by a combined effect of the QBO and ENSO. The tropopause instability induced by the MJO is found to significantly decouple from its convection over the Pacific in westerly QBO (QBOW) winters more than in easterly QBO (QBOE) winters. For jump MJOs, the independent convection over the central Pacific comes from local WPWs whose amplification and further development into deep convection are correlated to jump the MJOs’ decoupled tropopause instability. For stand MJOs, however, the seasonal-mean La Niña–like cool SST anomalies weaken the WPW activity over the central Pacific and confine WPWs within the western Pacific. Therefore, the decoupled tropopause instability of stand MJOs is out phase of WPWs and fails to induce an independent convection over the central Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Energy Budgets of Tropical Convective Discharge–Recharge Cycles

An energy budget combining atmospheric moist static energy (MSE) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) is used to examine the processes impacting day-to-day convective variability in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Feedbacks arising from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, surface fluxes, and radiation drive the cyclical amplification and decay of convection around suppressed and enhanced convective equilibrium states, referred to as shallow and deep convective discharge–recharge (D–R) cycles, respectively. The shallow convective D–R cycle is characterized by alternating enhancements of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus, often in the presence of extensive cirrus clouds. The deep convective D–R cycle is characterized by sequential increases in shallow cumulus, congestus, narrow deep precipitation, wide deep precipitation, a mix of detached anvil and altostratus and altocumulus, and once again shallow cumulus cloud types. Transitions from the shallow to deep D–R cycle are favored by a positive “column process” feedback, while discharge of convective instability and OHC by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contributes to transitions from the deep to shallow D–R cycle. Variability in the processes impacting MSE is comparable in magnitude to, but considerably more balanced than, variability in the processes impacting OHC. Variations in the quantity of atmosphere–ocean coupled static energy (MSE + OHC) result primarily from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, but are mainly realized as changes in OHC. MCSs are unique in their ability to rapidly discharge both lower-tropospheric convective instability and OHC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Role of Extratropical Oscillations in Driving the Intraseasonal Variability of the Global Atmosphere

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Circulation Model (GCM) intraseasonal periodicity ↗

NASA NTRS1994

Low-frequency oscillations in radiative-convective systems

Although eastward propagation has long been considered one of the essential features of the Madden-Julian waves, recent observations have revealed a stationary or quasi-stationary component in the oscillations, particularly in measures of the diabatic heating rate. Wave-CISK theories of the low-frequency oscillations have struggled to explain the observed period and vertical structure of the waves. On the other hand, theoretical and numerical studies have shown that low-frequency waves strongly resembling the observed oscillations can be excited by specified low-frequency oscillations of the convective heating. A problem with the latter set of theories is that the cause of the oscillatory heating has not been satisfactorily explained. It is proposed here that the observed low-frequency wave motions are the response to forcing by an essentially stationary, self-excited oscillating heat source that is produced by nonlinear interactions among radiation, cumulus convection, and the surface fluxes of sensible heat and moisture. Feedback of the large-scale motions on the latent heating is not required. Results from two very different one-dimensional models are presented to support this hypothesis. The physical processes included in the models are essentially the same, that is, radiation, cumulus convection, and the surface fluxes of sensible heat and moisture; the first model is highly simplified, however, while the second includes relatively sophisticated parameterizations of all the relevant physical processes. Results from both models show low-frequency oscillations of the latent heating, temperature, and moisture. Experiments show that the oscillations are favored by a warm sea surface and weak surface wind speeds, consistent with the observed conditions over the Indian Ocean and the tropical western Pacific Ocean.

Hu, QI↗