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NASA NTRS2019

Innovative Approaches to Using the International Space Station as a Mars Transit Analog

Human research on the International Space Station (ISS) crew has made significant advances in understanding of the effects of physiology on human health in space missions. However, ISS has not been as suitable for research on other hazards of human spaceflight such as isolation and communications delay. NASA recently completed a special assessment of whether modifications could be made to operations or facilities so that ISS could be used more effectively as an analog to simulate long-duration crew missions beyond low earth orbit. A cross-disciplinary team met to identify concept of operations, trade spaces, challenges, and opportunities to making ISS more operationally relevant as a Mars transit mission analog, and the results and implementation plans are summarized in this manuscript. In addition to the use case of 12-month missions (already in planning by the NASA ISS Program to bound expected Mars transit durations), three new use cases where ISS could provide valuable high-fidelity experience were identified. (1) Testing of operations procedures and medical care could be enhanced by demonstrating crew handling a simulated medical event in microgravity, autonomously, and with significant communications delay. (2) Isolation and confinement effects of deep space transit could be studied on ISS to validate current habitable volume requirements for Mars transit as well as provide context for evaluating the results of the extensive ground-based simulations in HERA and NEK. A trade study of possible operational and hardware changes that would make ISS applicable to these use cases was completed. (3) Surface operations after the physiological deconditioning of a long transit could be conducted to validate crew ability to perform critical ground tasks after 6-month Mars transit and aid in conceptual design of Mars surface element architectures. Each of the case studies includes a trade space between operational impacts on nominal ISS activities and degree of fidelity. A phased approach to implementation means that several "quick start" activities can be done in 2019-2020 at the same time as planning continues for more complex exploration analog options beginning as early as 2022. The team determined that many of these quick-start tasks could be done with available assets, entirely independent of other exploration system development timelines (such as Orion, Space Launch System). The consideration of the full suite of human spaceflight capabilities in the lunar vicinity can also be included as each step in human exploration serves as a simulation opportunity for some aspect of subsequent missions. Further discussions of options with the international community are critical for considering the benefits as well as impacts of simulation activities on ISS, as well as to better formulate future mission architectures.

Robinson, Julie A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lidar-Based Safe Site Relative Navigation

There has been a renewed focus in exploration of the lunar surface and maximizing scientific potential of such missions is made possible in part by minimizing the time required to set up operations; that is, reducing transit time on the surface by increasing the landing precision with respect to the intended target. Established SPLICE project precision landing requirements necessitate a navigation filter architecture and underlying models developed specifically with these needs in mind. To date, test flights to characterize SPLICE GNC system performance have not provided a means to divert from the a priori selected landing site due to hazardous conditions. With the inclusion of a new sensor, the HDL, coupled with safe landing site selection algorithms, GNC can divert from the originally planned trajectory and navigate relative to the new targeted landing site. This work presents a novel hazard relative measurement model and covariance transformation methodology that enable the navigation system to inform a safe-site relative guidance profile to meet project precision landing goals.

Navigation↗

NASA NTRS2010

Discovery and Monitoring of a New Black Hole Candidate XTE J1752-223 with RXTE: RMS Spectrum Evolution, BH Mass and the Source Distance

We report on the discovery and monitoring observations of a new galactic black hole candidate XTE J1752-223 by Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). The new source appeared on the X-ray sky on October 21 2009 and was active for almost 8 months. Phenomenologically, the source exhibited the low-hard/highsoft spectral state bi-modality and the variability evolution during the state transition that matches standard behavior expected from a stellar mass black hole binary. We model the energy spectrum throughout the outburst using a generic Comptonization model assuming that part of the input soft radiation in the form of a black body spectrum gets reprocessed in the Comptonizing medium. We follow the evolution of fractional root-mean-square (RMS) variability in the RXTE/PCA energy band with the source spectral state and conclude that broad band variability is strongly correlated with the source hardness (or Comptonized fraction). We follow changes in the energy distribution of rms variability during the low-hard state and the state transition and find further evidence that variable emission is strongly concentrated in the power-law spectral component. We discuss the implication of our results to the Comptonization regimes during different spectral states. Correlations of spectral and variability properties provide measurements of the BH mass and distance to the source. The spectral-timing correlation scaling technique applied to the RXTE observations during the hardto- soft state transition indicates a mass of the BH in XTE J1752-223 between 8 and 11 solar masses and a distance to the source about 3.5 kiloparsec.

Shaposhinikov, Nikolai↗

NASA NTRS2011

Seasonal Variations of Stratospheric Age Spectra in GEOSCCM

There are many pathways for an air parcel to travel from the troposphere to the stratosphere, each of which takes different time. The distribution of all the possible transient times, i.e. the stratospheric age spectrum, contains important information on transport characteristics. However, it is computationally very expensive to compute seasonally varying age spectra, and previous studies have focused mainly on the annual mean properties of the age spectra. To date our knowledge of the seasonality of the stratospheric age spectra is very limited. In this study we investigate the seasonal variations of the stratospheric age spectra in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We introduce a method to significantly reduce the computational cost for calculating seasonally dependent age spectra. Our simulations show that stratospheric age spectra in GEOSCCM have strong seasonal cycles and the seasonal cycles change with latitude and height. In the lower stratosphere extratropics, the average transit times and the most probable transit times in the winter/early spring spectra are more than twice as old as those in the summer/early fall spectra. But the seasonal cycle in the subtropical lower stratosphere is nearly out of phase with that in the extratropics. In the middle and upper stratosphere, significant seasonal variations occur in the sUbtropics. The spectral shapes also show dramatic seasonal change, especially at high latitudes. These seasonal variations reflect the seasonal evolution of the slow Brewer-Dobson circulation (with timescale of years) and the fast isentropic mixing (with timescale of days to months).

Li, Feng↗

NASA NTRS1974

Exospheric temperature and composition from satellite beacon measurements

Routine measurements of the slab thickness of the ionosphere, from 1965 to 1971, are used to infer the changes in neutral temperature and ion composition at a mean latitude of 40 S. Values of neutral temperature at solar maximum are 5 to 10% above Northern Hemisphere backscatter results. The diurnal and seasonal changes agree closely with satellite drag and backscatter measurements, except that the maximum temperature occurs after sunset in winter. Winter night-time values of the O(+)/H(+) transition height were 500 km in 1965-1966, 800 km in 1968-1969, and 700 km in 1971. Changes in the transition height lag about six months behind the changes in solar flux. Diurnal variations have a minimum just before sunrise and a maximum 1 to 3 hr after noon. On winter nights the transition height descends to the level set by chemical equilibrium. On summer nights the transition height is always above this level, giving a continual production of H(+) which serves as an additional source for maintaining the night-time ionosphere in the winter hemisphere.

Titheridge, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Water-tunnel study of transition flow around circular cylinders

The recently reported phenomenon of asymmetric flow separation from a circular cylinder in the critical Reynolds number regime has been confirmed in a water-tunnel experiment. For the first time, an attempt was made to visualize the wake of the cylinder during the transition from subcritical to critical flow and to correlate the visualizations with lift and drag measurements. The occurrence of a dominant asymmetric-flow state was quite repeatable, both when increasing and decreasing the Reynolds number, resulting in a mean lift coefficient of C sub L approx 1.2 and a shift in the angle of the wake by about 12 deg. A distinctive step change in the drag and shedding frequency was also found to occur. A hysteresis was confirmed to exist in this region as the Reynolds number was cycled over the transition range. Both boundaries of the asymmetry appear to be supercritical bifurcations in the flow. The asymmetry was normally steady in the mean; however, there were instances when the direction of the asymmetry reversed and remained so for the duration of the Reynolds number sweep through this transition region. A second asymmetry was observed at a higher Reynolds number; however, the mean lift coefficient was much lower, and the direction of the asymmetry was not observed to reverse. Introducing a small local disturbance into the boundary layer was found to prevent the critical asymmetry from developing along the entire span of the cylinder.

Almosnino, D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Advanced data assimilation in strongly nonlinear dynamical systems

Advanced data assimilation methods are applied to simple but highly nonlinear problems. The dynamical systems studied here are the stochastically forced double well and the Lorenz model. In both systems, linear approximation of the dynamics about the critical points near which regime transitions occur is not always sufficient to track their occurrence or nonoccurrence. Straightforward application of the extended Kalman filter yields mixed results. The ability of the extended Kalman filter to track transitions of the double-well system from one stable critical point to the other depends on the frequency and accuracy of the observations relative to the mean-square amplitude of the stochastic forcing. The ability of the filter to track the chaotic trajectories of the Lorenz model is limited to short times, as is the ability of strong-constraint variational methods. Examples are given to illustrate the difficulties involved, and qualitative explanations for these difficulties are provided. Three generalizations of the extended Kalman filter are described. The first is based on inspection of the innovation sequence, that is, the successive differences between observations and forecasts; it works very well for the double-well problem. The second, an extension to fourth-order moments, yields excellent results for the Lorenz model but will be unwieldy when applied to models with high-dimensional state spaces. A third, more practical method--based on an empirical statistical model derived from a Monte Carlo simulation--is formulated, and shown to work very well. Weak-constraint methods can be made to perform satisfactorily in the context of these simple models, but such methods do not seem to generalize easily to practical models of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, it is shown that the equations derived in the weak variational formulation are difficult to solve conveniently for large systems.

Miller, Robert N.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Left ventricular, systemic arterial, and baroreflex responses to ketamine and TEE in chronically instrumented monkeys

Effects of prescribed doses of ketamine five minutes after application and influences of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) on left ventricular, systemic arterial, and baroreflex responses were investigated to test the hypothesis that ketamine and/or TEE probe insertion alter cardiovascular function. Seven rhesus monkeys were tested under each of four randomly selected experimental conditions: (1) intravenous bolus dose of ketamine (0.5 ml), (2) continuous infusion of ketamine (500 mg/kg/min), (3) continuous infusion of ketamine (500 mg/kg/min) with TEE, and (4) control (no ketamine or TEE). Monkeys were chronically instrumented with a high fidelity, dual-sensor micromanometer to measure left ventricular and aortic pressure and a transit-time ultrasound probe to measure aortic flow. These measures were used to calculate left ventricular function. A 4-element Windkessel lumped-parameter model was used to estimate total peripheral resistance and systemic arterial compliance. Baroreflex response was calculated as the change in R-R interval divided by the change in mean aortic pressure measured during administration of graded concentrations of nitroprusside. The results indicated that five minutes after ketamine application heart rate and left ventricular diastolic compliance decreased while TEE increased aortic systolic and diastolic pressure. We conclude that ketamine may be administered as either a bolus or continuous infusion without affecting cardiovascular function 5 minutes after application while the insertion of a TEE probe will increase aortic pressure. The results for both ketamine and TEE illustrate the classic "Hawthorne Effect," where the observed values are partly a function of the measurement process. Measures of aortic pressure, heart rate, and left ventricular diastolic pressure should be viewed as relative, as opposed to absolute, when organisms are sedated with ketamine or instrumented with a TEE probe.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2010

Coronal Mass Ejections: a Summary of Recent Results

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been recognized as the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere, deriving their energy from the stressed magnetic fields on the Sun. This paper highlights some of the recent results on CMEs obtained from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) missions. The summary of the talk follows. SOHO observations revealed that the CME rate is almost a factor of two larger than previously thought and varied with the solar activity cycle in a complex way (e.g., high-latitude CMEs occurred in great abundance during the solar maximum years). CMEs were found to interact with other CMEs as well as with other large-scale structures (coronal holes), resulting in deflections and additional particle acceleration. STEREO observations have confirmed the three-dimensional nature of CMEs and the shocks surrounding them. The EUV signatures (flare arcades, corona) dimming, filament eruption, and EUV waves) associated with CMEs have become vital in the identification of solar sources from which CMEs erupt. CMEs with speeds exceeding the characteristic speeds of the corona and the interplanetary medium drive shocks, which produce type II radio bursts. The wavelength range of type II bursts depends on the CME kinetic energy: type II bursts with emission components at all wavelengths (metric to kilometric) are due to CMEs of the highest kinetic energy. Some CMEs, as fast as 1600 km/s do not produce type II bursts, while slow CMEs (400 km/s) occasionally produce type II bursts. These observations can be explained as the variation in the ambient flow speed (solar wind) and the Alfven speed. Not all CME-driven shocks produce type II bursts because either they are subcritical or do not have the appropriate geometry. The same shocks that produce type II bursts also produce solar energetic particles (SEPs), whose release near the Sun seems to be delayed with respect to the onset of type II bursts. This may indicate a subtle difference in the acceleration of the ions and 10 keV electrons needed to produce type II bursts. Surprisingly, some shocks lacking type II bursts are associated with energetic storm particle events (ESPs) pointing to the importance of electron escape from the shock for producing the radio emission. CMEs slow down or accelerate in the interplanetary medium because of the drag force, which modifies the transit time of CMEs and shocks. Halo CMEs that appear to surround the occulting disk were known before the SOHO era as occasional events. During the SOHO era, they became very prominent because of their ability to impact Earth and producing geomagnetic storms. Halo CMEs are generally more energetic than ordinary CMEs, which means they can produce severe impact on Earth's magnetosphere. Their origin close to the disk center of the Sun ensures direct impact on the magnetosphere, although their internal magnetic structure is crucial in causing storms. The solar sources of CMEs that produce SEP events at Earth, on the other hand, are generally in the western hemisphere because of the magnetic connectivity. Thus, CMEs are very interesting from the point of view of plasma physics as well as practical implications because of their space weather impact.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

NASA NTRS2015

Life Beyond the Planet of Origin and Implications for the Search for Life on Mars

Outer space is vast, cold, devoid of matter, radiation filled with essentially no gravity. These factors present an environmental challenge for any form of life. Earth's biosphere has evolved for more than 3 billion years shielded from the hostile environment of outer space by the protective blanket of the atmosphere and magnetosphere. Space is a nutritional wasteland with no liquid water and readily available organic carbon. Moving beyond a life's planet of origin requires a means for transport, the ability to withstand transport, and the ability to colonize, thrive and ultimately evolve in the new environment. Can life survive beyond its home planet? The key to answering this question is to identify organisms that first have the ability to withstand space radiation, space vacuum desiccation and time in transit, and second the ability to grow in an alien environment. Within the last 60 years space technology allowed us to transport life beyond Earth's protective shield so we may study, in situ, their responses to selected conditions of space. To date a variety of microbes ranging from viruses, to Bacteria, to Archaea, to Eukarya have been tested in the space environment. Most died instantly, but not all. These studies revealed that ultraviolet radiation is the near-term lethal agent, while hard radiation is the long-term lethal agent when the organism is shielded from ultraviolet radiation. In fact, bacterial spores, halophilic cyanobacteria and Archaea as well as some lichens survive very well if protected from ultraviolet radiation [1]. Some microbes, then, may be able to survive the trip in outer space to Mars on a spacecraft or in a meteorite. Once on Mars can a terrestrial microbe survive? Although the conditions on Mars are not as harsh as those in space, they are not hospitable for a terrestrial microbe. Studies, however, have shown that certain microbes that can survive in space for several years may also be able to survive on Mars if protected from ultraviolet radiation [1]. Laboratory simulation experiments using a mock-up of the Phoenix lander have shown that microbes transported to the surface of Mars on a spacecraft come off the spacecraft and mix into the Martian regolith [2]. Additionally, studies simulating Martian dust storms demonstrate that microbes can survive in the Martian wind blown dust and be scattered across the Martian surface away from the spacecraft. Would these microbes that may survive on Mars metabolize and propagate? Growth requires liquid water, a carbon source and an energy source. Survival on Mars also requires protection from ultraviolet radiation. In the cold, dry environment of Mars the probability of microbial metabolism and growth at or just beneath the surface is extremely low. Although the probability is low, Mars may be contaminated with potentially live terrestrial organisms. In light of that statistic we must be extremely diligent and cautious in our search for Martian life. If we are not cautious we may find life on Mars and it may be a contaminant from Earth.

Survival in Space↗

NASA NTRS1992

Photoexcited escape probability, optical gain, and noise in quantum well infrared photodetectors

We present a detailed and thorough study of a wide variety of quantum well infrared photodetectors (QWIPs), which were chosen to have large differences in their optical and transport properties. Both n- and p-doped QWIPs, as well as intersubband transitions based on photoexcitation from bound-to-bound, bound-to-quasi-continuum, and bound-to-continuum quantum well states were investigated. The measurements and theoretical analysis included optical absorption, responsivity, dark current, current noise, optical gain, hot carrier mean free path; net quantum efficiency, quantum well escape probability, quantum well escape time, as well as detectivity. These results allow a better understanding of the optical and transport physics and thus a better optimization of the QWIP performance.

Levine, B. F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Wavenumber selection and hysteresis in nonlinear baroclinic flow

Wavenumber transition and hysteresis in a highly unstable baroclinic flow are investigated using a high-resolution spectral numerical model. As the flow becomes more supercritical, the dominant wave gradually shifts from the most unstable wave predicted by the linear theory to a longer wave with a larger time-averaged amplitude, while the rectified mean flow attains a stronger shear at the center of the channel. The numerical results display a complex hysteresis behavior, which occurs not only between the states of different dominant wavenumbers, but also between the states of identical dominant wavenumber but of different dynamic characteristics. In a certain parameter range three stable states, each with different dominant wavenumber, are possible, and in another parameter range four stable states are possible, among them three stable states with an identical dominant wave. The numerical results suggest that a multiple weather regime exists even without external forcing in which the flow aperiodically varies between two distinct behaviors. The effects of stable higher harmonics are assessed and it is found that their presence contributes not only to the better approximation of the model solutions but also to the selection of the final equilibrium state, due to the chaotic nature of the initial transient period.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Velocity Measurements in the Wake of the Swept Wing Flow Test Model at the National Transonic Facility

Femtosecond laser electronic excitation tagging (FLEET) was applied to obtain flowfield velocity data for the Swept Wing Flow Test (SWiFT) at the NASA Langley Research Center National Transonic Facility (NTF). Despite numerous challenges associated with performing flow velocimetry measurements within a large-scale cryogenic wind tunnel facility, the experimental campaign was conducted under various conditions, including dry air at 320 K, cool nitrogen at 240 K, and Mach numbers of 0.2 and 0.8. FLEET velocimetry measurements were performed in the downstream wake of the SWiFT model, providing a quantitative dataset. This dataset includes one-dimensional velocity profiles and two-dimensional velocity maps acquired at different angles of attack and Reynolds numbers. The two-dimensional single component velocity maps indicate relatively uniform flow across the 120-mm wide wake flow survey suggesting that the main flow features can be represented by single-position linear velocity profiles. The measured instantaneous velocity profiles at variable angles of attack are compared to model lift coefficient information obtained at Mach 0.2. At high Reynolds numbers, a sudden velocity decrease was observed in the FLEET measurements at the same time as stall in lift coefficient was observed. At a low Reynolds number, both the velocity profiles and the lift coefficient show a smoother transition, without a sudden stall. Furthermore, the two-dimensional, one component velocity map reveals a velocity deficit region at Mach 0.8 at various angles of attack. Both single shot and mean velocity measurements were acquired allowing assessment of flowfield fluctuations and measurement precisions. The uncertainties are within 4 m/s in mean measurements based on repeatability data and about 5 m/s in instantaneous single-shot measurements. Measurements are reported with ~4.8 mm spatial resolution with 32-pixel averaging used to reduce measurement errors.

femtosecond↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Velocity Measurements in the Wake of the Swept Wing Flow Test (SWIFT) Model at the National Transonic Facility

Transonic↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reliable VLSI sequential controllers

A VLSI architecture for synchronous sequential controllers is presented that has attractive qualities for producing reliable circuits. In these circuits, one hardware implementation can realize any flow table with a maximum of 2(exp n) internal states and m inputs. Also all design equations are identical. A real time fault detection means is presented along with a strategy for verifying the correctness of the checking hardware. This self check feature can be employed with no increase in hardware. The architecture can be modified to achieve fail safe designs. With no increase in hardware, an adaptable circuit can be realized that allows replacement of faulty transitions with fault free transitions.

Whitaker, S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The resurfacing controversy for Venus: An overview and a mechanistic perspective

Two remarkable aspects of the population of impact craters on Venus are that craters at all sizes are indistinguishable from a random population and that most craters have not been significantly modified by tectonic strain or by volcanic flows external to the crater rim, despite evidence from Magellan images that volcanic and tectonic features are widespread on Venus. One interpretation of these observations is that most of the surface dates from the end of a catastrophic global resurfacing event that ceased about 500 My ago, and that a small fraction of craters volcaniclly embayed or modified by deformation indicate that volcanic and tectonic activity subsequent to that time has been at much lower levels. A competing scenario, in which resurfacing occurs episodically in patches a few hundred kilometers in extent and there is a wider spectrum of surface ages, also appears to be consistent with the characteristics of impact craters on Venus. While geological and statistical studies of the crater population on Venus offer some promise for distinguishing between these two hypotheses, consideration of the possible mechanisms of catastrophic episodic resurfacing provides an independent perspective. Potential mechanisms for catastrophic resurfacing of Venus range from geologically sudden convective destabilization of the global lithosphere to strongly time-dependent heat flux and melt generation in the underlying mantle. For most of these mechanisms, resurfacing occurs implicitly or explicitly by volcanism. An alternative hypothesis is that, at least in the geologically recent history of Venus, the primary resurfacing mechanism has been tectonic deformation rather than volcanism. Because the rate of surface strain should be controlled by the temperature-dependent strength of the lower crust, a geologically rapid transition in surface strain rates should be the natural result of planetary cooling. This transition would occur at comparable times for areas of similar crustal thickness and heat flow, but would be delayed for regions of thicker or hotter crust. The end of the era of high rates of tectonic resurfacing could thus appear as a 'catastrophe' over the 80% of the planet with an elevation within 1 Km of the mean, while continued deformation would give rise to 'episodic' resurfacing to much younger times in the highlands, a result consistent with lower crater densities seen in highland regions.

Solomon, Sean C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Predictions of axisymmetric free turbulent shear flows using a generalized eddy-viscosity approach

The generalized eddy viscosity approach is described and results are presented of test cases which show that predictions obtained by this approach are adequate for most engineering applications. Because of the importance of starting computations from the injection station where experimentally determined mean and turbulence parameters are rarely available, a very simple core model applicable to simple step-type (slug) profiles was developed. Agreement between predicted and experimental mean profiles was generally almost as good for calculations made by using this model throughout the core region and the transition model for all subsequent regions as predictions made by starting from experimental profiles in the transition region. The generalized eddy-viscosity model, which was developed in part through correlation of turbulence parameters, successfully predicted turbulent shear stress, turbulent intensity, and mean velocity profiles for a 0.040-inch-diameter microjet. Therefore, successful scaling by the model was demonstrated since data used in its development was for jet areas up to 90,000 times as large as the microjet and velocities only 1/20th as high.

Morgenthaler, J. H.↗