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At least 145 records · Page 8

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) Applications for Mars Science Laboratory Mission Site Selection Processes

The new Mars-GRAM auxiliary profile capability, using data from TES observations, mesoscale model output, or other sources, allows a potentially higher fidelity representation of the atmosphere, and a more accurate way of estimating inherent uncertainty in atmospheric density and winds. Figure 3 indicates that, with nominal value rpscale=1, Mars-GRAM perturbations would tend to overestimate observed or mesoscale-modeled variability. To better represent TES and mesoscale model density perturbations, rpscale values as low as about 0.4 could be used. Some trajectory model implementations of Mars-GRAM allow the user to dynamically change rpscale and rwscale values with altitude. Figure 4 shows that an mscale value of about 1.2 would better replicate wind standard deviations from MRAMS or MMM5 simulations at the Gale, Terby, or Melas sites. By adjusting the rpscale and rwscale values in Mars-GRAM based on figures such as Figure 3 and 4, we can provide more accurate end-to-end simulations for EDL at the candidate MSL landing sites.

Justh, H. L.↗

Long-Term Global Morphology of Gravity Wave Activity Using UARS Data

Gravity waves in satellite data from CRISTA and MLS are studied in depth this quarter. Results this quarter are somewhat limited due to the PI'S heavy involvement throughout this reporting period in on-site forecasting of mountain wave-induced turbulence for the NASA's ER-2 research aircraft at Kiruna, Sweden during the SAGE Ill Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE). Results reported concentrate on further mesoscale modeling studies of mountain waves over the southern Andes, evident in CRISTA and MLS data. Two-dimensional mesoscale model simulations are extended through generalization of model equations to include both rotation and a first-order turbulence closure scheme. Results of three experiments are analyzed in depth and submitted for publication. We also commence simulations with a three-dimensional mesoscale model (MM5) and present preliminary results for the CRISTA 1 period near southern South America. Combination of ground-based temperature data at 87 km from two sites with global HRDl data was continued this quarter, showing stationary planetary wave structures. This work was also submitted for publication.

Eckermann, Stephen D.↗

Continuum shock mixture models for Ni+Al multilayers: Inert mesoscale simulations

Mesoscale modeling of shock waves in Ni+Al multilayers poses significant challenges that are due, in part, to shock-induced chemical reactions. Current modeling approaches utilize reactive molecular dynamics (MD), but they are limited to resolving domains of only a few hundred nanometers. In contrast, actual multilayer superlattices can be tens of micrometers thick, and they exhibit non-ideal (i.e., wavy) interfaces. The second part of our research builds upon previous work developing physically based, thermodynamically complete equations of state for various Ni and Al intermetallic compositions. Here, we introduce a novel workflow for high-fidelity mesoscale simulations of Ni+Al multilayers using a continuum hydrocode. By increasing the simulation domain size beyond MD limitations (e.g., 2 × 6 μm 2 ) and incorporating explicit interfacial roughness, we investigate the shock response of Ni+Al multilayers at previously unexplored scales. Our experimental design encompasses nine multilayer geometries with varying roughness amplitudes and tilt angles (θ = 15°, 30°, and 45°), alongside 19 flyer impact velocities ranging from 0.3 to 3.0 km/s, resulting in a total of 171 high-fidelity simulations. The bulk shock state from inert 2D mesoscale simulations aligns with the law of mixtures, while temperature and pressure fluctuations strongly correlate with multilayer geometry types. A new metric dubbed the “hot spot probability integral” shows a greater dependence on a tilt angle than interfacial roughness.

Kittell, David E. [Sandia National Laboratories (S↗

A mesoscale numerical forecast of an intense convective snowburst along the East Coast

Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for a convective snowburst in the Washington, D.C.-Baltimore, Maryland, region on March 8, 1984 that was associated with secondary cyclogenesis along the East Coast. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of a mesoscale model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic process for a wintertime convective event that was inadequately predicted by local forecasters and to note some of the possible benefits of using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting. The results from this and other recent mesoscale modeling studies indicate that three-hourly output of key model fields, when combined with other data sources, can be a valuable aid to forecasters concerned with predicting weather events that are mesoscale in character.

Kocin, P. J.↗

A numerical study of Appalachian cold-air damming and coastal frontogenesis

The mesoscale structures of the wedge-shaped pressure ridge and the coastal front associated with the Appalachian ice storm of January 13-14, 1980 is analyzed using a mesoscale model. The characteristic features of the mesoscale model, which uses 15 vertical levels, 50-km grid length, and multilevel, boundary-layer parameterization, are described. The simulation of the surface layer winds and temperature, the evolution of the vertical temperature structure of the wedge-ridge region, and model simulations of the low-level jets and the coastal front are examined. Trajectories based on the 24-hr simulation of the winds are discussed.

Stauffer, David R.↗

Final results of an experiment in operational forecasting of sea breeze thunderstorms using a mesoscale numerical model

Sea breeze thunderstorms during quiescent synoptic conductions account for 40 percent of Florida rainfall, and are the dominant feature of April-October weather at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). An effort is presently made to assess the feasibility of a mesoscale numerical model in improving the point-specific thunderstorm forecasting accuracy at the KSC, in the 2-12 hour time frame. Attention is given to the Applied Regional Atmospheric Modeling System.

Lyons, Walter A.↗

Validation of Mars-GRAM and Planned New Features

For altitudes below 80 km, Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is based on output climatology from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). At COSPAR 2002, results were presented of validation tests of Mars-GRAM versus data from Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Radio Science (RS) experiment. Further validation tests are presented comparing Mars- GRAM densities with those from the European Mars Climate Database (MCD), and comparing densities from both Mars-GRAM and MCD against TES observations. Throughout most of the height and latitude range of TES data (040 km and 70s to 70N), good agreement is found between atmospheric densities from Mars-GRAM and MCD. However, at the season and latitude zone for Mars Phoenix arrival and landing (Ls = 65 to 80 degrees and latitude 65 to 75N), Mars-GRAM densities are about 30 to 45 percent higher than MCD densities near 40 km altitude. Further evaluation is warranted concerning potential impact of these model differences on planning for Phoenix entry and descent. Three planned features for Mars-GRAM update are also discussed: (1) new MGCM and Thermospheric General Circulation Model data sets to be used as a revised basis for Mars-GRAM mean atmosphere, (2) a new feature to represent planetary-scale traveling waves for upper altitude density variations (such as found during Mars Odyssey aerobraking), and (3) a new model for effects of high resolution topographic slope on winds near the surface (0 to 4.5 km above MOLA topography level). Mars-GRAM slope winds will be computed from a diagnostic (algebraic) relationship based on Ye, Segal, and Pielke (1990). This approach differs from mesoscale models (such as MRAMS and Mars MM5), which use prognostic, full-physics solutions of the time- and space-dependent differential equations of motion. As such, slope winds in Mars-GRAM will be consistent with its "engineering-level" approach, and will be extremely fast and easy to evaluate, compared with mesoscale model solutions. Mars-GRAM slope winds are not being suggested as a replacement for sophisticated, full-physics Mars mesoscale models, but may have value, particularly for preliminary screening of large numbers of candidate landing sites for future Mars missions, such as Phoenix and Mars Science Laboratory. Test output is presented from Mars-GRAM slope winds in the area of Gusev Crater and Valles Marineris.

Justus, C. G.↗

Lithium Plating Characteristics in High Areal Capacity Li-Ion Battery Electrodes

Li-ion battery degradation and safety events are often attributed to undesirable metallic lithium plating. Since their release, Li-ion battery electrodes have been made progressively thicker to provide a higher energy density. However, the propensity for plating in these thicker pairings is not well understood. Herein, we combine an experimental plating-prone condition with robust mesoscale modeling to examine electrode pairings with capacities ranging from 2.5 to 6 mAh/cm 2 and negative to positive (N/P) electrode areal capacity ratio from 0.9 to 1.8 without the need for extensive aging tests. Using both experimentation and a mesoscale model, we identify a shift from conventional high state-of-charge (SOC) type plating to high overpotential (OP) type plating as electrode thickness increases. Further, these two plating modes have distinct morphologies, identified by optical microscopy and electrochemical signatures. We demonstrate that under operating conditions where these plating modes converge, a high propensity of plating exists, revealing the importance of predicting and avoiding this overlap for a given electrode pairing. Further, we identify that thicker electrodes, beyond a capacity of 3 mAh/cm 2 or thickness >75 μm, are prone to high OP, limiting negative electrode (NE) utilization and preventing cross-sectional oversizing the NE from mitigating plating. Here, it simply contributes to added mass and volume. The experimental thermal gradient and mesoscale model either combined or independently provide techniques capable of probing performance and safety implications of mild changes to electrode design features.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Investigation of the role of thermal boundary layer processes in initiating convection under the NASA SPACE Field Program

The current NWS ground based network is not sufficient to capture the dynamic or thermodynamic structure leading to the initiation and organization of air mass moist convective events. Under this investigation we intend to use boundary layer mesoscale models (McNider and Pielke, 1981) to examine the dynamic triggering of convection due to topography and surface thermal contrasts. VAS and MAN's estimates of moisture will be coupled with the dynamic solution to provide an estimate of the total convective potential. Visible GOES images will be used to specify incoming insolation which may lead to surface thermal contrasts and JR skin temperatures will be used to estimate surface moisture (via the surface thermal inertia) (Weizel and Chang, 1988) which can also induce surface thermal contrasts. We will use the SPACE-COHMEX data base to evaluate the ability of the joint mesoscale model satellite products to show skill in predicting the development of air mass convection. We will develop images of model vertical velocity and satellite thermodynamic measures to derive images of predicted convective potential. We will then after suitable geographic registration carry out a pixel by pixel correlation between the model/satellite convective potential and the 'truth' which are the visible images. During the first half of the first year of this investigation we have concentrated on two aspects of the project. The first has been in generating vertical velocity fields from the model for COHMEX case days. We have taken June 19 as the first case and have run the mesoscale model at several different grid resolutions. We are currently developing the composite model/satellite convective image. The second aspect has been the attempted calibration of the surface energy budget to provide the proper horizontal thermal contrasts for convective initiation. We have made extensive progress on this aspect using the FIFE data as a test data set. The calibration technique looks very promising.

Mcnider, Richard T.↗

Modeling the Stochastic Response of Fiber Reinforced Composites with Varied Representative Volume Element Sizes

Fiber reinforced composites are desirable in applications where low weight and high strength are needed, but are susceptible to variability and flaws during manufacturing, making failure predictions difficult. These flaws may occur at the microscale where mechanical properties vary locally due to regions of fiber clusters and matrix pockets. In this study, a multiscale approach was taken to model 3-point bend, 4-point bend, and tensile experiments of a unidirectional composite from only having microstructure scans of these samples and constituent properties from literature. These scans were sampled with different sized windows, and statistically equivalent microstructures were generated, then simulated for stiffness, strength, and fracture toughness using a reduced order micromechanical model and NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). Mesoscale models were created with equivalent element sizes to microstructures and properties sampled from microscale simulation results. Results showed how microscale size affects certain mechanical properties. Also shown is how well mesoscale models agree to experiments when using stochastic element properties and varying element size.

microstructure↗

Atmospheric Turbulence Estimates from a Pulsed Lidar

Estimates of the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) were obtained from measurements made by a coherent pulsed lidar and compared with estimates from mesoscale model simulations and measurements from an in situ sonic anemometer at the Denver International Airport and with EDR estimates from the last observation time of the trailing vortex pair. The estimates of EDR from the lidar were obtained using two different methodologies. The two methodologies show consistent estimates of the vertical profiles. Comparison of EDR derived from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model with the in situ lidar estimates show good agreement during the daytime convective boundary layer, but the WRF simulations tend to overestimate EDR during the nighttime. The EDR estimates from a sonic anemometer located at 7.3 meters above ground level are approximately one order of magnitude greater than both the WRF and lidar estimates - which are from greater heights - during the daytime convective boundary layer and substantially greater during the nighttime stable boundary layer. The consistency of the EDR estimates from different methods suggests a reasonable ability to predict the temporal evolution of a spatially averaged vertical profile of EDR in an airport terminal area using a mesoscale model during the daytime convective boundary layer. In the stable nighttime boundary layer, there may be added value to EDR estimates provided by in situ lidar measurements.

Pruis, Matthew J.↗

Three-Dimensional High Fidelity Progressive Failure Damage Modeling of NCF Composites

Performance prediction of off-axis laminates is of significant interest in designing composite structures for energy absorption. Phenomenological models available in most of the commercial programs, where the fiber and resin properties are smeared, are very efficient for large scale structural analysis, but lack the ability to model the complex nonlinear behavior of the resin and fail to capture the complex load transfer mechanisms between the fiber and the resin matrix. On the other hand, high fidelity mesoscale models, where the fiber tows and matrix regions are explicitly modeled, have the ability to account for the complex behavior in each of the constituents of the composite. However, creating a finite element model of a larger scale composite component could be very time consuming and computationally very expensive. In the present study, a three-dimensional mesoscale model of non-crimp composite laminates was developed for various laminate schemes. The resin material was modeled as an elastic-plastic material with nonlinear hardening. The fiber tows were modeled with an orthotropic material model with brittle failure. In parallel, new stress based failure criteria combined with several damage evolution laws for matrix stresses were proposed for a phenomenological model. The results from both the mesoscale and phenomenological models were compared with the experiments for a variety of off-axis laminates.

Aitharaju, Venkat↗

Martian Atmospheric Circulation and Climate

This proposal is focused on using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data and numerical models to address issues of atmospheric mixing of volatiles and aerosols, on defining the mean state of the atmosphere and the degree of variability, and on the processes which exchange volatiles and aerosols between the surface and atmosphere. Specifically, five areas of research were defined: In the first, we proposed to use TES data to examine the general circulation of the atmosphere both through retrieval of the residual circulation, and by comparison of the TES data with a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM). In the second, we proposed to look at synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric mixing processes (baroclinic storms, etc.) by combining TES and MOC Wide Angle data, and by employing a Mars Mesoscale Model. In the third section, we proposed to examine the record of the Martian atmospheric state provided by MGS, Viking, and Mariner 9 - as well as published ground-based observations - in order to assess the nature of interannual variability. In the forth section, we proposed to compare numerical models of the Martian water and dust cycles with TES and MOC data, specifically looking at water ice cloud distributions, dust distribution, etc. In the fifth section, we propose to use the mesoscale model to study the Mars Pathfinder Lander data. This work has now concluded its final of three years.

Ingersoll, Andrew P.↗

Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

Pielke, Roger↗

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting entities, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT transitions real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is applying convection-allowing numerical models to predict mesoscale convective weather. In order to address this specific forecast challenge, SPoRT produces real-time mesoscale model forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that includes unique NASA products and capabilities. Currently, the SPoRT configuration of the WRF model (SPoRT-WRF) incorporates the 4-km Land Information System (LIS) land surface data, 1-km SPoRT sea surface temperature analysis and 1-km Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) analysis, and retrieved thermodynamic profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The LIS, SST, and GVF data are all integrated into the SPoRT-WRF through adjustments to the initial and boundary conditions, and the AIRS data are assimilated into a 9-hour SPoRT WRF forecast each day at 0900 UTC. This study dissects the overall impact of the NASA datasets and the individual surface and atmospheric component datasets on daily mesoscale forecasts. A case study covering the super tornado outbreak across the Ce ntral and Southeastern United States during 25-27 April 2011 is examined. Three different forecasts are analyzed including the SPoRT-WRF (NASA surface and atmospheric data), the SPoRT WRF without AIRS (NASA surface data only), and the operational National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF (control with no NASA data). The forecasts are compared qualitatively by examining simulated versus observed radar reflectivity. Differences between the simulated reflectivity are further investigated using convective parameters along with model soundings to determine the impacts of the various NASA datasets. Additionally, quantitative evaluation of select meteorological parameters is performed using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools model verification package to compare forecasts to in situ surface and upper air observations.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Joint sessions on modeling of boundary layer and radiative transfer processes

During the session on modeling of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes the following topics were addressed: current PBL parameterizations used in mesoscale models; critical issues in improving PBL parameterizations for mesoscale models; suggestions for future modeling efforts; and suggestions for observing system strategies.

Moeng, Chin-Hoh↗

Constraining the Sulfur Dioxide Degassing Flux from Turrialba Volcano, Costa Rica Using Unmanned Aerial System Measurements

Observed sulfur dioxide (SO2)mixing ratios onboard unmanned aerial systems (UAS) duringMarch 11-13, 2013 are used to constrain the three-day averaged SO2 degassing flux fromTurrialba volcanowithin a Bayesian inverse modeling framework. A mesoscale model coupled with Lagrangian stochastic particle backward trajectories is used to quantify the source-receptor relationships at very high spatial resolutions (i.e., b1 km). The model shows better performance in reproducing the near-surface meteorological properties and observed SO2 variations when using a first-order closure non-local planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. The optimized SO2 degassing fluxes vary from 0.59 +/- 0.37 to 0.83 +/- 0.33 kt d−1 depending on the PBL scheme used. These fluxes are in good agreement with ground-based gas flux measurements, and correspond to corrective scale factors of 8-12 to the posteruptive SO2 degassing rate in the AeroCom emission inventory. The maximum a posteriori solution for the SO2 flux is highly sensitive to the specification of prior and observational errors, and relatively insensitive to the SO2 loss term and temporal averaging of observations. Our results indicate relatively low degassing activity but sustained sulfur emissions from Turrialba volcano to the troposphere during March 2013. This study demonstrates the utility of low-cost small UAS platforms for volcanic gas composition and flux analysis.

Xi, Xin↗