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NASA NTRS2009

Modeling the Dynamics and Export of Dissolved Organic Matter in the Northeastern U.S. Continental Shelf

Continental shelves are believed to play a major role in carbon cycling due to their high productivity. Particulate organic carbon (POC) burial has been included in models as a carbon sink, but we show here that seasonally produced dissolved organic carbon (DOC) on the shelf can be exported to the open ocean by horizontal transport at similar rates (1-2 mol C/sq m/yr) in the southern U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). The dissolved organic matter (DOM) model imbedded in a coupled circulation-biogeochemical model reveals a double dynamics: the progressive release of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) in the upper layer during summer increases the regenerated primary production by 30 to 300%, which, in turns ; enhances the DOC production mainly from phytoplankton exudation in the upper layer and solubilization of particulate organic matter (POM) deeper in the water column. This analysis suggests that DOM is a key element for better representing the ecosystem functioning and organic fluxes in models because DOM (1) is a major organic pool directly related to primary production, (2) decouples partially the carbon and nitrogen cycles (through carbon excess uptake, POM solubilization and DOM mineralization) and (3) is intimately linked to the residence time of water masses for its distribution and export.

Druon, J.N.↗

NASA NTRS2010

ATK Launch Vehicle (ALV-X1) Liftoff Acoustic Environments: Prediction vs. Measurement

Launched from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) Pad 01B on August 22, 2008, the ATK Launch Vehicle (ALV-X1) provided an opportunity to measure liftoff acoustic noise data. Predicted lift-off acoustic environments were developed by both NASA MSFC and ATK engineers. ATK engineers developed predictions for use in determining vibro-acoustic loads using the method described in the monograph NASA SP-8072. The MSFC ALV-X1 lift-off acoustic prediction was made with the Vehicle Acoustic Environment Prediction Program (VAEPP). The VAEPP and SP-8072 methods predict acoustic pressures of rocket systems generally scaled to existing rocket motor data based upon designed motor or engine characteristics. The predicted acoustic pressures are sound-pressure spectra at specific positions on the vehicle. This paper presents the measured liftoff acoustics on the vehicle and tower. This data is useful for the ALV-X1 in validating the pre-launch environments and loads predictions.

Houston, J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Using 100G Network Technology in Support of Petascale Science

NASA in collaboration with a number of partners conducted a set of individual experiments and demonstrations during SC 10 that collectively were titled "Using 100G Network Technology in Support of Petascale Science". The partners included the iCAIR, Internet2, LAC, MAX, National LambdaRail (NLR), NOAA and SCinet Research Sandbox (SRS) as well as the vendors Ciena, Cisco, ColorChip, cPacket, Extreme Networks, Fusion-io, HP and Panduit who most generously allowed some of their leading edge 40G/100G optical transport, Ethernet switch and Internet Protocol router equipment and file server technologies to be involved. The experiments and demonstrations featured different vendor-provided 40G/100G network technology solutions for full-duplex 40G and 100G LAN data flows across SRS-deployed single-node fiber-pairs among the Exhibit Booths of NASA, the National Center for Data lining, NOAA and the SCinet Network Operations Center, as well as between the NASA Exhibit Booth in New Orleans and the Starlight Communications Exchange facility in Chicago across special SC 10- only 80- and 100-Gbps wide area network links provisioned respectively by the NLR and Internet2, then on to GSFC across a 40-Gbps link. provisioned by the Mid-Atlantic Crossroads. The networks and vendor equipment were load-stressed by sets of NASA/GSFC High End Computer Network Team-built, relatively inexpensive, net-test-workstations that are capable of demonstrating greater than 100Gbps uni-directional nuttcp-enabled memory-to-memory data transfers, greater than 80-Gbps aggregate--bidirectional memory-to-memory data transfers, and near 40-Gbps uni-directional disk-to-disk file copying. This paper will summarize the background context, key accomplishments and some significances of these experiments and demonstrations.

Gary, James P.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Simple Technique for Creating Regional Composites of Sea Surface Temperature from MODIS for Use in Operational Mesoscale NWP

This paper describes a simple technique for creating regional, high-resolution, daytime and nighttime composites of sea surface temperature (SST) for use in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP). The composites are based on observations from NASA s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Aqua and Terra. The data used typically are available nearly in real time, are applicable anywhere on the globe, and are capable of roughly representing the diurnal cycle in SST. The composites resolution is much higher than that of many other standard SST products used for operational NWP, including the low- and high-resolution Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses. The difference in resolution is key because several studies have shown that highly resolved SSTs are important for driving the air sea interactions that shape patterns of static stability, vertical and horizontal wind shear, and divergence in the planetary boundary layer. The MODIS-based composites are compared to in situ observations from buoys and other platforms operated by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) off the coasts of New England, the mid-Atlantic, and Florida. Mean differences, mean absolute differences, and root-mean-square differences between the composites and the NDBC observations are all within tenths of a degree of those calculated between RTG analyses and the NDBC observations. This is true whether or not one accounts for the mean offset between the skin temperatures of the MODIS dataset and the bulk temperatures of the NDBC observations and RTG analyses. Near the coast, the MODIS-based composites tend to agree more with NDBC observations than do the RTG analyses. The opposite is true away from the coast. All of these differences in point-wise comparisons among the SST datasets are small compared to the 61.08C accuracy of the NDBC SST sensors. Because skin-temperature variations from land to water so strongly affect the development and life cycle of the sea breeze, this phenomenon was chosen for demonstrating the use of the MODIS-based composite in an NWP model. A simulated sea breeze in the vicinity of New York City and Long Island shows a small, net, but far from universal improvement when MODIS-based composites are used in place of RTG analyses. The timing of the sea breeze s arrival is more accurate at some stations, and the near-surface temperature, wind, and humidity within the breeze are more realistic.

Knievel, Jason C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Airborne and Ground-Based Measurements Using a High-Performance Raman Lidar

A high-performance Raman lidar operating in the UV portion of the spectrum has been used to acquire, for the first time using a single lidar, simultaneous airborne profiles of the water vapor mixing ratio, aerosol backscatter, aerosol extinction, aerosol depolarization and research mode measurements of cloud liquid water, cloud droplet radius, and number density. The Raman Airborne Spectroscopic Lidar (RASL) system was installed in a Beechcraft King Air B200 aircraft and was flown over the mid-Atlantic United States during July August 2007 at altitudes ranging between 5 and 8 km. During these flights, despite suboptimal laser performance and subaperture use of the telescope, all RASL measurement expectations were met, except that of aerosol extinction. Following the Water Vapor Validation Experiment Satellite/Sondes (WAVES_2007) field campaign in the summer of 2007, RASL was installed in a mobile trailer for groundbased use during the Measurements of Humidity and Validation Experiment (MOHAVE-II) field campaign held during October 2007 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory s Table Mountain Facility in southern California. This ground-based configuration of the lidar hardware is called Atmospheric Lidar for Validation, Interagency Collaboration and Education (ALVICE). During theMOHAVE-II field campaign, during which only nighttime measurements were made, ALVICE demonstrated significant sensitivity to lower-stratospheric water vapor. Numerical simulation and comparisons with a cryogenic frost-point hygrometer are used to demonstrate that a system with the performance characteristics of RASL ALVICE should indeed be able to quantify water vapor well into the lower stratosphere with extended averaging from an elevated location like Table Mountain. The same design considerations that optimize Raman lidar for airborne use on a small research aircraft are, therefore, shown to yield significant dividends in the quantification of lower-stratospheric water vapor. The MOHAVE-II measurements, along with numerical simulation, were used to determine that the likely reason for the suboptimal airborne aerosol extinction performance during theWAVES_2007 campaign was amisaligned interference filter. With full laser power and a properly tuned interference filter,RASL is shown to be capable ofmeasuring themain water vapor and aerosol parameters with temporal resolutions of between 2 and 45 s and spatial resolutions ranging from 30 to 330 m from a flight altitude of 8 km with precision of generally less than 10%, providing performance that is competitive with some airborne Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) water vapor and High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) aerosol instruments. The use of diode-pumped laser technology would improve the performance of an airborne Raman lidar and permit additional instrumentation to be carried on board a small research aircraft. The combined airborne and ground-based measurements presented here demonstrate a level of versatility in Raman lidar that may be impossible to duplicate with any other single lidar technique.

Whiteman, David N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Using Satellite Aerosol Retrievals to Monitor Surface Particulate Air Quality

The MODIS and MISR aerosol products were designed nearly two decades ago for the purpose of climate applications. Since launch of Terra in 1999, these two sensors have provided global, quantitative information about column-integrated aerosol properties, including aerosol optical depth (AOD) and relative aerosol type parameters (such as Angstrom exponent). Although primarily designed for climate, the air quality (AQ) community quickly recognized that passive satellite products could be used for particulate air quality monitoring and forecasting. However, AOD and particulate matter (PM) concentrations have different units, and represent aerosol conditions in different layers of the atmosphere. Also, due to low visible contrast over brighter surface conditions, satellite-derived aerosol retrievals tend to have larger uncertainty in urban or populated regions. Nonetheless, the AQ community has made significant progress in relating column-integrated AOD at ambient relative humidity (RH) to surface PM concentrations at dried RH. Knowledge of aerosol optical and microphysical properties, ambient meteorological conditions, and especially vertical profile, are critical for physically relating AOD and PM. To make urban-scale maps of PM, we also must account for spatial variability. Since surface PM may vary on a finer spatial scale than the resolution of standard MODIS (10 km) and MISR (17km) products, we test higher-resolution versions of MODIS (3km) and MISR (1km research mode) retrievals. The recent (July 2011) DISCOVER-AQ campaign in the mid-Atlantic offers a comprehensive network of sun photometers (DRAGON) and other data that we use for validating the higher resolution satellite data. In the future, we expect that the wealth of aircraft and ground-based measurements, collected during DISCOVER-AQ, will help us quantitatively link remote sensed and ground-based measurements in the urban region.

Levy, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Hydrology Research with the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Datasets at the NASA GES DISC Using Giovanni

The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is a collaboration project between NASA/GSFC, NOAA, Princeton Univ., and the Univ. of Washington. NLDAS has created a surface meteorology dataset using the best-available observations and reanalyses the backbone of this dataset is a gridded precipitation analysis from rain gauges. This dataset is used to drive four separate land-surface models (LSMs) to produce datasets of soil moisture, snow, runoff, and surface fluxes. NLDAS datasets are available hourly and extend from Jan 1979 to near real-time with a typical 4-day lag. The datasets are available at 1/8th-degree over CONUS and portions of Canada and Mexico from 25-53 North. The datasets have been extensively evaluated against observations, and are also used as part of a drought monitor. NLDAS datasets are available from the NASA GES DISC and can be accessed via ftp, GDS, Mirador, and Giovanni. GES DISC news articles were published showing figures from the heat wave of 2011, Hurricane Irene, Tropical Storm Lee, and the low-snow winter of 2011-2012. For this presentation, Giovanni-generated figures using NLDAS data from the derecho across the U.S. Midwest and Mid-Atlantic will be presented. Also, similar figures will be presented from the landfall of Hurricane Isaac and the before-and-after drought conditions of the path of the tropical moisture into the central states of the U.S. Updates on future products and datasets from the NLDAS project will also be introduced.

Mocko, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A History of Vegetation, Sediment and Nutrient Dynamics at Tivoli North Bay, Hudson Estuary, New York

We conduct a stratigraphic paleoecological investigation at a Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve (HRNERR) site, Tivoli Bays, spanning the past 1100 years. Marsh sediment cores were analyzed for ecosystem changes using multiple proxies, including pollen, spores, macrofossils, charcoal, sediment bulk chemistry, and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes. The results reveal climatic shifts such as the warm and dry Medieval Warm Period (MWP) followed by the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA), along with significant anthropogenic influence on the watershed ecosystem. A five-fold expansion of invasive species, including Typha angustifolia and Phragmites australis, is documented along with marked changes in sediment composition and nutrient input. During the last century, a ten-fold sedimentation rate increase due to land-use changes is observed. The large magnitude of shifts in vegetation, sedimentation, and nutrients during the last few centuries suggest that human activities have made the greatest impact to the marshes of the Hudson Estuary during the last millennium. Climate variability and ecosystem changes similar to those observed at other marshes in northeastern and mid-Atlantic estuaries, attest to the widespread regional signature recorded at Tivoli Bays.

Sritrairat, Sanpisa↗

NASA NTRS2013

Surface Ocean pCO2 Seasonality and Sea-Air CO2 Flux Estimates for the North American East Coast

Underway and in situ observations of surface ocean pCO2, combined with satellite data, were used to develop pCO2 regional algorithms to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of surface ocean pCO2 and sea-air CO2 flux for five physically and biologically distinct regions of the eastern North American continental shelf: the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), the Gulf of Maine (GoM), Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank (NS+GB), and the Scotian Shelf (SS). Temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon variability are the most influential factors driving the seasonality of pCO2. Estimates of the sea-air CO2 flux were derived from the available pCO2 data, as well as from the pCO2 reconstructed by the algorithm. Two different gas exchange parameterizations were used. The SS, GB+NS, MAB, and SAB regions are net sinks of atmospheric CO2 while the GoM is a weak source. The estimates vary depending on the use of surface ocean pCO2 from the data or algorithm, as well as with the use of the two different gas exchange parameterizations. Most of the regional estimates are in general agreement with previous studies when the range of uncertainty and interannual variability are taken into account. According to the algorithm, the average annual uptake of atmospheric CO2 by eastern North American continental shelf waters is found to be between 3.4 and 5.4 Tg C/yr (areal average of 0.7 to 1.0 mol CO2 /sq m/yr) over the period 2003-2010.

interannual variability↗

NASA NTRS2012

Bay Breeze Influence on Surface Ozone at Edgewood, MD During July 2011

Surface ozone (O3) was analyzed to investigate the role of the bay breeze on air quality at two locations in Edgewood, Maryland (lat: 39.4deg, lon: −76.3deg) for the month of July 2011. Measurements were taken as part of the first year of NASA's "Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality" (DISCOVER-AQ) Earth Venture campaign and as part of NASA's Geostationary for Coastal and Air Pollution Events Chesapeake Bay Oceanographic campaign with DISCOVER-AQ (Geo-CAPE CBODAQ). Geo-CAPE CBODAQ complements DISCOVER-AQ by providing ship-based observations over the Chesapeake Bay. A major goal of DISCOVER-AQ is determining the relative roles of sources, photochemistry and local meteorology during air quality events in the Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. Surface characteristics, transport and vertical structures of O3 during bay breezes were identified using in-situ surface, balloon and aircraft data, along with remote sensing equipment. Localized late day peaks in O3 were observed during bay breeze days, maximizing an average of 3 h later compared to days without bay breezes. Of the 10 days of July 2011 that violated the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 8 h O3 standard of 75 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) at Edgewood, eight exhibited evidence of a bay breeze circulation. The results indicate that while bay breezes and the processes associated with them are not necessary to cause exceedances in this area, bay breezes exacerbate poor air quality that sustains into the late evening hours at Edgewood. The vertical and horizontal distributions of O3 from the coastal Edgewood area to the bay also show large gradients that are often determined by boundary layer stability. Thus, developing air quality models that can sufficiently resolve these dynamics and associated chemistry, along with more consistent monitoring of O3 and meteorology on and along the complex coastline of Chesapeake Bay must be a high priority.

bay breeze↗

NASA NTRS2013

North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study

A statistical-stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.

El Nino↗

NASA NTRS2013

PhoneSat - The Smartphone Nanosatellite

PhoneSat 2.4, carried into space on November 19, 2013 aboard a Minotaur I rocket from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport at NASAs Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, is the first of the PhoneSat family to use a two-way S-band radio to allow engineers to command the satellite from Earth. This mission also serves as a technology demonstration for a novel attitude determination and control system (ADCS) that establishes and stabilizes the satellites attitude relative to Earth. Unlike the earlier PhoneSats that used a Nexus One, PhoneSat 2.4 uses the Nexus S smartphone, which runs Googles Android operating system, and is made by Samsung Electronics Co., Suwon, So. Korea. The smartphone provides many of the functions needed by the satellite such as a central computer, data memory, ready-made interfaces for communications, navigation and power all pre-assembled in a rugged electronics package.

PhoneSat↗

NASA NTRS2015

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Trace Gas Columns Derived from WRF/Chem Regional Model Output: Planning for Geostationary Observations of Atmospheric Composition

We quantify both the spatial and temporal variability of column integrated O3, NO2, CO, SO2, and HCHO over the Baltimore / Washington, DC area using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with on-line chemistry (WRF/Chem) for the entire month of July 2011, coinciding with the first deployment of the NASA Earth Venture program mission Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ). Using structure function analyses, we find that the model reproduces the spatial variability observed during the campaign reasonably well, especially for O3. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument will be the first NASA mission to make atmospheric composition observations from geostationary orbit and partially fulfills the goals of the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission. We relate the simulated variability to the precision requirements defined by the science traceability matrices of these space-borne missions. Results for O3 from 0- 2 km altitude indicate that the TEMPO instrument would be able to observe O3 air quality events over the Mid-Atlantic area, even on days when the violations of the air quality standard are not widespread. The results further indicated that horizontal gradients in CO from 0-2 km would be observable over moderate distances (≥ 20 km). The spatial and temporal results for tropospheric column NO2 indicate that TEMPO would be able to observe not only the large urban plumes at times of peak production, but also the weaker gradients between rush hours. This suggests that the proposed spatial and temporal resolutions for these satellites as well as their prospective precision requirements are sufficient to answer the science questions they are tasked to address.

TEMPO↗

NASA NTRS2016

The First Government Sanctioned Delivery of Medical Supplies by Remotely Controlled Unmanned Aerial System (UAS)

The first government sanctioned delivery of medical supplies by UAS occurred at Wise, Virginia, on July 17, 2015. The "Let's Fly Wisely" event was a demonstration of the humanitarian use of UAS to facilitate delivery of medical supplies to remote or otherwise difficult-to-reach areas. The event was the result of coordinated efforts by a partnership which included the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC), Virginia Polytechnic Institute, the Mid-Atlantic Aviation Partnership (MAAP), Flirtey Corporation, Lonesome Pine Airport, Remote Area Medical (RAM), Health Wagon, SEESPAN Aerial Interactive, Rx Partnership, and Wise County, Virginia. The historic event occurred during the annual Remote Area Medical clinic at the Wise County Fairgrounds. The medical supplies in small packages were delivered to the Wise County Fairgrounds from the Lonesome Pine Airport by UAS operated by Firtey. A larger supply of medical supplies were delivered to the Lonesome Pine Airport from the Tazewell County Airport by NASA Langley's SR22 UAS Surrogate Research aircraft. The UAS Surrogate aircraft was remotely controlled for most of the flight by a UAS Ground Control Station located at the Lonesome Pine Airport. The medical supplies were delivered from the UAS Surrogate to Flirtey for final delivery by Hex Multi-Rotor UAS in smaller packages and multiple trips to the fairgrounds. A Certificate of Authorization (COA) issued by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) designated the site as an authorized UAS test site. The paper will present additional details of the historic delivery of pharmaceuticals by UAS during the "Let's Fly Wisely" event. The paper will also provide details of NASA's SR22 UAS Surrogate Research aircraft. The UAS Surrogate was designed to investigate the procedures, aircraft sensors and other systems that may be required to allow Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) to safely operate with manned aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS).

Howell, Charles T., III↗

NASA NTRS2016

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Ground and Satellite Column Measurements of NO2 and O3 over the Atlantic Ocean During the Deposition of Atmospheric Nitrogen to Coastal Ecosystems Experiment

In situ measurements of O3 and nitrogen oxides (NO + NO2=NOx) and remote sensing measurements of total column NO2 and O3 were collected on a ship in the North Atlantic Ocean as part of the Deposition of Atmospheric Nitrogen to Coastal Ecosystems (DANCE) campaign in July August 2014,100 km east of the mid-Atlantic United States. Relatively clean conditions for both surface in situ mixing ratio and total column O3 and NO2 measurements were observed throughout the campaign. Increased surface and column NO2 and O3 amounts were observed when a terrestrial air mass was advected over the study region. Relative to ship-based total column measurements using a Pandora over the entire study, satellite measurements overestimated total column NO2 under these relatively clean atmospheric conditions over offshore waters by an average of 16. Differences are most likely due to proximity, or lack thereof, to surface emissions; spatial averaging due to the field of view of the satellite instrument; and the lack of sensitivity of satellite measurements to the surface concentrations of pollutants. Total column O3 measurements from the shipboard Pandora showed good correlation with the satellite measurements(r 0.96), but satellite measurements were 3 systematically higher than the ship measurements, in agreement with previous studies. Derived values of boundary layer height using the surface in situ and total column measurements of NO2 are much lower than modeled and satellite-retrieved boundary layer heights, which highlight the differences in the vertical distribution between terrestrial and marine environments.

Martins, Douglas K.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS2019

NASA Disasters Program: A Partner for Coastal Disaster Response, Resiliency, and Risk Reduction

Summary: The NASA Applied Sciences: Disasters Program has kicked off a pilot project as “Mid-Atlantic Resiliency Demonstration Study, Communities at Intensive Risk” in FY17 and FY18; Efforts focus on a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to integrate a full suite of capabilities from numerical weather prediction, tide and surge modeling at high spatial resolution and urban/neighborhood scales, and remote sensing capabilities for water detection and depth estimation; Future efforts - Partner with Federal Agencies, academia professional societies to complement and augment ongoing work using Earth observations unique to NASA - Translate hazards to risk in order to understand local and regional impacts and minimize vulnerability.

Bell, Jordan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Validation of Regional CO2 Concentrations in the ECMWF Real-Time Analysis and Carbon-Tracker Reanalysis with Airborne Observations from ACT-A Field Campaign

Through verifying against hundreds of hours of airborne in-situ measurements from the NASA-sponsored Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-A) field campaign, this study systematically examines the regional uncertainties and biases of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from two of the state-of-the-art global analysis products, namely the real-time analysis from the European Center (EC) for Medium Range Forecasting and NOAA’s near real-time Carbon Tracker (CT) reanalysis. It is found that both the EC and CT-NRT analyses agree reasonably well with the independent ACT-A flight-level CO2 measurements in the free troposphere but the uncertainties are considerably larger in the boundary layer during both the summer months of 2016 and the winter months of 2017. There are also strong variabilities in accuracy and bias between seasons, and across three different subregions in the United States (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South). Overall, the analysis uncertainties of the EC and CT-NRT analyses in terms of root-mean square deviations against airborne data are comparable to each other, both of which are between 1-2 ppm in the free troposphere but can be as large as 10 ppm near the surface, which are grossly consistent with the difference between the two analyses. The current study not only provides systematic uncertainty estimates for both analysis products over North America but also demonstrated that these two independent estimates can be used to approximate the overall regional CO2 analysis uncertainties. Both statistics are important in future studies in quantifying the uncertainties of regional carbon concentration and flux estimates, as well as in assessing the impact of regional transport through more refined regional modeling and analysis systems.

Chen, Hans W.↗