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A Framework for Evaluating Climate Model Performance Metrics

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables?e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Noel C Baker↗

NASA NTRS2002

Response of thyroid follicular cells to gamma irradiation compared to proton irradiation: II. The role of connexin 32

The objective of this study was to determine whether connexin 32-type gap junctions contribute to the "contact effect" in follicular thyrocytes and whether the response is influenced by radiation quality. Our previous studies demonstrated that early-passage follicular cultures of Fischer rat thyroid cells express functional connexin 32 gap junctions, with later-passage cultures expressing a truncated nonfunctional form of the protein. This model allowed us to assess the role of connexin 32 in radiation responsiveness without relying solely on chemical manipulation of gap junctions. The survival curves generated after gamma irradiation revealed that early-passage follicular cultures had significantly lower values of alpha (0.04 Gy(-1)) than later-passage cultures (0.11 Gy(-1)) (P < 0.0001, n = 12). As an additional way to determine whether connexin 32 was contributing to the difference in survival, cultures were treated with heptanol, resulting in higher alpha values, with early-passage cultures (0.10 Gy(-1)) nearly equivalent to untreated late-passage cultures (0.11 Gy(-1)) (P > 0.1, n = 9). This strongly suggests that the presence of functional connexin 32-type gap junctions was contributing to radiation resistance in gamma-irradiated thyroid follicles. Survival curves from proton-irradiated cultures had alpha values that were not significantly different whether cells expressed functional connexin 32 (0.10 Gy(-1)), did not express connexin 32 (0.09 Gy(-1)), or were down-regulated (early-passage plus heptanol, 0.09 Gy(-1); late-passage plus heptanol, 0.12 Gy(-1)) (P > 0.1, n = 19). Thus, for proton irradiation, the presence of connexin 32-type gap junctional channels did not influence their radiosensitivity. Collectively, the data support the following conclusions. (1) The lower alpha values from the gamma-ray survival curves of the early-passage cultures suggest greater repair efficiency and/or enhanced resistance to radiation-induced damage, coincident with the expression of connexin 32-type gap junctions. (2) The increased sensitivity of FRTL-5 cells to proton irradiation was independent of their ability to communicate through connexin 32 gap junctions. (3) The fact that the beta components of the survival curves from both gamma rays and proton beams were similar (average 0.022 +/- 0.008 Gy(-2), P > 0.1, n = 39) suggests that at higher doses the loss of viability occurs at a relatively constant rate and is independent of radiation quality and the presence of functional gap junctions.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2026

AI-driven neutrino diagnostics and radiation-hard beam instrumentation for next-generation neutrino experiments

The Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) at Fermilab will deliver a high-intensity, multi-megawatt neutrino beam to the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), enabling precision tests of the three-neutrino paradigm, CP violation searches, neutrino mass ordering determination, and supernova neutrino studies. To accelerate DUNE’s physics reach and ensure robust beam operations, we propose an integrated AI-driven framework with real-time diagnostics and radiation-hardened instrumentation. At its core is a Real-Time Beam Integrity Monitor using a physics-informed Digital Twin. By reconstructing pion phase space from muon profiles and exploiting magnetic horn optic linearity, it enables spill-by-spill beam correction and flux stabilization. By using this approach, flux-related systematics could be reduced from 5% to 1%, potentially accelerating the discovery of CP violations by four to six years. Complementing this, a US–Japan R&D effort will deploy a LAPPD-based muon monitor in the NuMI beamline. ToF measurements can be acquired with picosecond precision using this radiation-hard system, enhancing sensitivity to horn chromatic effects. Simulations confirm strong response to these effects. ML models predict beam quality and horn current to sub-percent accuracy from muon data, enhancing anomaly detection and stability. This scalable, AI-enabled strategy improves beam fidelity, reduces systematics, and sets a new standard for high-power accelerator operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI-driven neutrino diagnostics and radiation-hard beam instrumentation for next-generation neutrino experiments

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

NASA NTRS2019

Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric Sulfur

The profound changes in global SO[subscript 2] emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and europe. europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and east Asia. the uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. the agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.

Aas, Wenche↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Evaluation of E3SM‐MOSAIC: Spatial Distributions and Radiative Effects of Nitrate Aerosol

Abstract Nitrate aerosol plays an important role in affecting regional air quality as well as Earth's climate. However, it is not well represented or even neglected in many global climate models. In this study, we couple the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) module with the four‐mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) in DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) to simulate nitrate aerosol and its radiative effects. We find that nitrate aerosol simulated by E3SMv2‐MAM4‐MOSAIC is sensitive to the treatment of gaseous HNO 3 transfer to/from interstitial particles related to accommodation coefficients of HNO 3 ( ) on dust and non‐dust particles. We compare three different treatments of HNO 3 transfer: (a) a treatment (MTC_SLOW) that uses a low in the mass transfer coefficient (MTC) calculation; (b) a dust‐weighted MTC treatment (MTC_WGT) that uses a high on non‐dust particles; and (c) a dust‐weighted MTC treatment that also splits coarse mode aerosols into the coarse dust and sea salt sub‐modes in MOSAIC (MTC_SPLC). MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC increase the global annual mean (2005–2014) nitrate burden from 0.096 (MTC_SLOW) to 0.237 and 0.185 Tg N, respectively, mostly in the coarse mode. MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC also produce stronger nitrate direct radiative forcing (−0.048 and −0.051 W m −2 , respectively) and indirect forcing (−0.33 and −0.35 W m −2 , respectively) than MTC_SLOW (−0.021 and −0.24 W m −2 ). MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC improve nitrate surface concentrations over remote oceans based on limited observations and vertical profiles of nitrate concentrations against aircraft measurements below 400 hPa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2025

NAIRAS Version 3 Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation Validation: Comparisons to RaD-X Measurements

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) model predicts dosimetric and radiative flux quantities for assessing human radiation exposure levels and radiation effects on flight electronic systems from the surface of the Earth to deep space. NAIRAS version 3 includes many updates and improvements to the model. In this paper, NAIRAS version 3 dosimetric quantities are compared to observations of the atmospheric radiation environment taken during the Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X) flight campaign. The RaD-X campaign consisted of a high-altitude balloon flight, with altitudes up to 40 km, and four coordinated aircraft flights covering an altitude range from 6-20 km. The RaD-X measurement data from the different flight platforms were acquired in September 2015 and at nearly the same vertical cutoff rigidity (3-4 GV). High quality, flight-averaged measurement data were provided at seven altitudes, which correspond to regions of fundamentally different radiation transport and collisional interaction physics. The NAIRAS model agrees with the RaD-X measurements to within 30% over the entire altitude domain of the flight campaign (0-40 km), which is within the measurement uncertainty.

Christopher J Mertens↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Clustered DNA Damage by Ionizing Radiation Using Multinomial Damage Probabilities and Energy Imparted Spectra

Simple and complex clustered DNA damage represent the critical initial damage caused by radiation. In this paper, a multinomial probability model of clustered damage is developed with probabilities dependent on the energy imparted to DNA and surrounding water molecules. The model consists of four probabilities: (A) direct damage of sugar-phosphate moieties leading to SSB, (B) OH− radical formation with subsequent SSB and BD formation, (C) direct damage to DNA bases, and (D) energy imparted to histone proteins and other molecules in a volume not leading to SSB or BD. These probabilities are augmented by introducing probabilities for the relative location of SSB using a ≤10 bp criteria for a double-strand break (DSB) and for the possible success of a radical attack that leads to SSB or BD. Model predictions for electrons, 4He, and 12C ions are compared to the experimental data and show good agreement. Thus, the developed model allows an accurate and rapid computational method to predict simple and complex clustered DNA damage as a function of radiation quality and to explore the resulting challenges to DNA repair.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

NASA NTRS1999

Implication of microdosimetry in estimation of radiation quality in space environment

Errors introduced using a tissue equivalent proportional counter to estimate radiation quality of an arbitrary ion field as related to space radiations are examined. This is accomplished by using a generalized analytic model to calculate the effect of energy loss straggling, track structure, and pathlength distribution on the microdosimetric distribution. The error can be as large as a factor of two, but no systematic trend could be found.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Higher-order Quadrature Schemes in Improving Computational Efficiency for Orientation-averaged Single-Scattering Properties of Nonspherical Ice Particles

We evaluate several high-order quadrature schemes for accuracy and efficacy in obtaining orientation-averaged single-scattering properties (SSPs). We use the highly efficient MIDAS to perform electromagnetic scattering calculations to evaluate the gain in efficiency from these schemes. MIDAS is shown to be superior to DDSCAT, a popular discrete dipole approximation (DDA) method. This study is motivated by the fact that quality physical precipitation retrievals rely on using accurate orientation-averaged SSPs derived from realistic hydrometeors as input to radiative transfer Models (RTMs). The DDA has been a popular choice for single-scattering calculations, due to its versatility with respect to target geometry. However, being iterative-solver-based (ISB), the most used DDA codes, e.g. DDSCAT and ADDA, must solve the scattering problem for each orientation of the target separately. As the size parameter and geometric anisotropy of the hydrometeor increase, the number of orientations needed to obtain accurate orientation-averages can increase drastically and so does the computation cost incurred by the ISB-DDA methods. MIDAS is a Direct-Solver-Based (DSB) code, its decomposition of the original large matrix with a high rank into multiple more manageable smaller matrices of lower ranks makes it much more computationally efficient while maintaining excellent accuracy. In addition, direct solvers consider all requested orientations at once, giving MIDAS further advantage over popular ISB-DDA methods. MIDAS, when combined with high-order quadrature for orientation averaging, can be greater than three orders of magnitude more efficient in obtaining RTM-ready SSPs of complex-shaped hydrometeors than existing ISB-DDA methods, with the native quadrature schemes they offer.

Ines Fenni↗

NASA NTRS2023

PCRTM-RA Enhancements for Improving CO Retrievals Using NAST-I Measurements From the FIREX-AQ Field Campaign

The Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model Retrieval Algorithm (PCRTM-RA) for carbon monoxide (CO) retrieval has been improved for better use of National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) measurements obtained during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign. One of the explicit purposes of the campaign was to characterize wildfire-induced atmospheric changes. Coincidental measurements from various airborne instruments including NAST-I infrared hyperspectral measurements from the NASA ER-2 aircraft provided us an opportunity to test and improve the PCRTM-RA CO retrieval. By relaxing the vertical correlation of CO profiles in the a-priori covariance constraint, a significant improvement in the vertical structure of the CO retrieval has been confirmed. The methodology is validated using a synthetic testing dataset that covers observations associated with various CO vertical profiles including that of an extremely polluted atmosphere. The methodology is also applied to real NAST-I measurements, and the results have successfully demonstrated the capability of using PCRTM-RA retrieval results for CO plume evolution and transport monitoring.

Carbon monoxide (CO)↗

NASA NTRS2015

Benchmark Data Set for Wheat Growth Models: Field Experiments and AgMIP Multi-Model Simulations.

The data set includes a current representative management treatment from detailed, quality-tested sentinel field experiments with wheat from four contrasting environments including Australia, The Netherlands, India and Argentina. Measurements include local daily climate data (solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, surface wind, dew point temperature, relative humidity, and vapor pressure), soil characteristics, frequent growth, nitrogen in crop and soil, crop and soil water and yield components. Simulations include results from 27 wheat models and a sensitivity analysis with 26 models and 30 years (1981-2010) for each location, for elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes, a heat stress sensitivity analysis at anthesis, and a sensitivity analysis with soil and crop management variations and a Global Climate Model end-century scenario.

climate change impact↗

NASA NTRS1998

Measurements of the Downward Longwave Radiation Spectrum over the Antarctic Plateau and Comparisons with a Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model for Clear Skies

A 1-year field program was conducted at South Pole Station in 1992 to measure the downward infrared radiance spectrum at a resolution of 1/ cm over the spectral range 550-1667 cm-'. The atmosphere over the Antarctic Plateau is the coldest and driest on Earth, where in winter, surface temperatures average about -60 C, the total column water vapor is as low as 300 pm of precipitable water, and the clear-sky downward longwave flux is usually less than 80 W/sq m. Three clear-sky test cases are selected, one each for summer, winter, and spring, for which high- quality radiance data are available.as well as ancillary data to construct model atmospheres from radiosondes, ozonesondes, and other measurements. The model atmospheres are used in conjunction with the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) to compare model calculations with the spectral radiance measurements. The high-resolution calculations of LBLRTM (approx. = 0.001/ cm) are matched to the lower-resolution measurements (1/ cm) by adjusting their spectral resolution and by applying a correction for the finite field of view of the interferometer. In summer the uncertainties in temperature and water vapor profiles dominate the radiance error in the LBLRTM calculations. In winter the uncertainty in viewing zenith angle becomes important as well as the choice of atmospheric levels in the strong near-surface temperature inversion. The spectral radiance calculated for each of the three test cases generally agrees with that measured, to within twice the total estimated radiance error, thus validating LBLRTM to this level of accuracy for Antarctic conditions. However, the discrepancy exceeds twice the estimated error in the gaps between spectral lines in the region 1250-1500/ cm, where emission is dominated by the foreign-broadened water vapor continuum.

Walden, Von P.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Diagnosing the pedestal magnetic field and magnetohydrodynamics radial structure with pedestal–scrape of layer electron cyclotron emission radiation inversion in H-mode plasma (invited)

Forward modeling is used to interpret inversion patterns of the pedestal–Scrape of Layer (SOL) Electron Cyclotron Emission (ECE) in DIII-D H-mode experiments. The modeling not only significantly improves the ECE data interpretation quality but also leads to the potential measurements of (1) the magnetic field strength |B| at the separatrix, (2) the pedestal |B| evolution during an inter-Edge Localized Mode (ELM) period, and (3) the pedestal Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) radial structure. The ECE shine-through effect leads to three types of pedestal–SOL radiation inversions that are discussed in this paper. The first type of inversion is the non-monotonic T e,rad profile with respect to the major radius. Using the ECE frequency at the minimum T e,rad , the inversion can be applied to measure the magnetic field |B| at the separatrix and calibrate the mapping of the ECE channels with respect to the separatrix. The second type of inversion refers to the opposite phase between the radiation fluctuations δT e,rad at the pedestal and SOL. This δT e,rad phase inversion is sensitive to density and temperature fluctuations at the pedestal foot and, thus, can be used to qualitatively measure the MHD radial structure. The third type of inversion appears when the pedestal and SOL T e,rad evolve in an opposite trend, which can be used to infer the pedestal |B| field change during an inter-ELM period. Finally, the bandwidth effect on measuring δT e,rad due to pedestal MHD is also investigated in the radiation modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2012

Radiative Forcing Due to Enhancements in Tropospheric Ozone and Carbonaceous Aerosols Caused by Asian Fires During Spring 2008

Simulations of tropospheric ozone and carbonaceous aerosol distributions, conducted with the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS), are used to study the effects of major outbreaks of fires that occurred in three regions of Asia, namely Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Siberia, during spring 2008. RAQMS is a global scale meteorological and chemical modeling system. Results from these simulations, averaged over April 2008, indicate that tropospheric ozone column increases by more than 10 Dobson units (DU) near the Thailand region, and by lesser amounts in the other regions due to the fires. Widespread increases in the optical depths of organic and black carbon aerosols are also noted. We have used an off-line radiative transfer model to evaluate the direct radiative forcing due to the fire-induced changes in atmospheric composition. For clear sky, the monthly averaged radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is mostly negative with peak values less than -12 W/sq m occurring near the fire regions. The negative forcing represents the increased outgoing shortwave radiation caused by scattering due to carbonaceous aerosols. At high latitudes, the radiative forcing is positive due to the presence of absorbing aerosols over regions of high surface albedo. Regions of positive forcing at TOA are more pronounced under total sky conditions. The monthly averaged radiative forcing at the surface is mostly negative, and peak values of less than -30 W/sq m occur near the fire regions. Persistently large negative forcing at the surface could alter the surface energy budget and potentially weaken the hydrological cycle.

Natarajan, Murali↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Synthesis of the antenna pattern for a radiating slot in a metal cylinder

The synthesis of a prescribed far-field pattern by means of a radiating slot in a perfectly conducting infinite circular cylinder is considered. The narrow circumferential slot and the infinite axial slot are studied in detail. In either case, the problem is to find the distribution of the electromagnetic field in the aperture that yields a radiation pattern that is the best mean-square approximation to a given pattern, under certain constraints. Various quality factors for cylindrical models are discussed, and a detailed comparison with the synthesis problem for a planar aperture is performed. It turns out that Rhodes' synthesis method has no equivalent in the cylindrical case, and that the best admissible mean-square approximation to a given pattern may be a very poor approximation in amplitude. However, an iteration scheme is developed in which the phase approximation is sacrificed for the sake of substantially improving the amplitude approximation. Numerical results based on such a scheme are displayed, for prescribed omnidirectional and sectoral patterns.

Einarsson, O.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A13K-0336: Airborne Multi-Wavelength High Spectral Resolution Lidar for Process Studies and Assessment of Future Satellite Remote Sensing Concepts

NASA Langley recently developed the world's first airborne multi-wavelength high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL). This lidar employs the HSRL technique at 355 and 532 nm to make independent, unambiguous retrievals of aerosol extinction and backscatter. It also employs the standard backscatter technique at 1064 nm and is polarization-sensitive at all three wavelengths. This instrument, dubbed HSRL-2 (the secondgeneration HSRL developed by NASA Langley), is a prototype for the lidar on NASA's planned Aerosols- Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) mission. HSRL-2 completed its first science mission in July 2012, the Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) conducted by the Department of Energy (DOE) in Hyannis, MA. TCAP presents an excellent opportunity to assess some of the remote sensing concepts planned for ACE: HSRL-2 was deployed on the Langley King Air aircraft with another ACE-relevant instrument, the NASA GISS Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP), and flights were closely coordinated with the DOE's Gulfstream-1 aircraft, which deployed a variety of in situ aerosol and trace gas instruments and the new Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR). The DOE also deployed their Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility and their Mobile Aerosol Observing System at a ground site located on the northeastern coast of Cape Cod for this mission. In this presentation we focus on the capabilities, data products, and applications of the new HSRL-2 instrument. Data products include aerosol extinction, backscatter, depolarization, and optical depth; aerosol type identification; mixed layer depth; and rangeresolved aerosol microphysical parameters (e.g., effective radius, index of refraction, single scatter albedo, and concentration). Applications include radiative closure studies, studies of aerosol direct and indirect effects, investigations of aerosol-cloud interactions, assessment of chemical transport models, air quality studies, present (e.g., CALIPSO) and future (e.g., EarthCARE) satellite calibration/validation, and development/assessment of advanced retrieval techniques for future satellite applications (e.g., lidar+polarimeter retrievals of aerosol and cloud properties). We will also discuss the relevance of HSRL-2 measurement capabilities to the ACE remote sensing concept.

Hostetler, Chris A.↗