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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Predicting electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave amplitude from unstable ring current plasma conditions

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the Earth's inner magnetosphere are enhanced fluctuations driven unstable by ring current ion temperature anisotropy. EMIC waves can resonate with relativistic electrons and play an important role in precipitation of MeV radiation belt electrons. In this study, we investigate the excitation and saturation of EMIC instability in a homogeneous plasma using both linear theory and nonlinear hybrid simulations. We have explored a four-dimensional parameter space, carried out a large number of simulations, and derived a scaling formula that relates the saturation EMIC wave amplitude to initial plasma conditions. Finally, such scaling can be used in conjunction with ring current models like ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field to provide global dynamic EMIC wave maps that will be more accurate inputs for radiation belt modeling than statistical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Particle Size Distribution Dynamics Can Help Constrain the Phase State of Secondary Organic Aerosol

Particle phase state is a property of atmospheric aerosols that has important implications for the formation, evolution, and gas/particle partitioning of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). In this work, we use a size-resolved chemistry and microphysics model (SOM-TOMAS), updated to include an explicit treatment of particle phase state, to constrain the bulk diffusion coefficient (Db) of SOA produced from ??- pinene ozonolysis. By leveraging data from laboratory experiments performed in the absence of a seed and under dry conditions, we find that the Db for SOA can be constrained (1-7 ×10-15 cm2 s-1 in these experiments) by simultaneously reproducing the time-varying SOA mass concentrations and the evolution of the particle size distribution. Another version of our model that used the predicted SOA composition to calculate the glass transition temperature, viscosity, and, ultimately, Db (~10-15 cm2 s-1) of the SOA was able to reproduce the mass and size distribution measurements when we included oligomer formation (oligomers accounted for about a fifth of the SOA mass). Our work highlights the potential of a size resolved SOA model to constrain the particle phase state of SOA by utilizing historical measurements of the evolution of the particle size distribution.

He, Yicong↗

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power

State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integrate them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Degradation Modeling and Reliability Assessment of Capacitors

The degradation of capacitors under accelerated stress conditions occur in a monotonic and non-linear fashion. Several efforts have been made to model the degradation behavior of capacitor considering either physics-of-failure models or statistical models and subsequently estimate its reliability and lifetime parameters. But most of these models fail to reflect the physical properties of the degradation path, which varies according to several intrinsic and extrinsic factors. These factors introduce random and temporal uncertainty among the population of capacitors. The gamma stochastic process can model both type of uncertainties among the population of capacitors. In this paper, we model the capacitor degradation by non-homogeneous gamma stochastic process in which both the model parameters (shape and scale) are dependent on stress variables. The model parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Wind Power Curve Modeling in Simple and Complex Terrain

Our previous work on wind power curve modeling using statistical models focused on a location with a moderately complex terrain in the Altamont Pass region in northern California (CA). The work described here is the follow-up to that work, but at a location with a simple terrain in northern Oklahoma (OK). The goal of the present analysis was to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding information beyond the hub-height wind speed, such as wind speeds at other heights, as well as other atmospheric variables, to the power prediction model at this new location and compare the results to those obtained at the CA site in the previous study. While we reach some of the same conclusions at both sites, many results reported for the CA site do not hold at the OK site. In particular, using the entire vertical profile of wind speeds improves the accuracy of wind power prediction relative to using the hub-height wind speed alone at both sites. However, in contrast to the CA site, the rotor equivalent wind speed (REWS) performs almost as well as the entire profile at the OK site. Another difference is that at the CA site, adding wind veer as a predictor significantly improved the power prediction accuracy. The same was true for that site when air density was added to the model separately instead of using the standard air density adjustment. At the OK site, these additional variables result in no significant benefit for the prediction accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Hybrid Multi-Scale Model of Crystal Plasticity for Handling Stress Concentrations

Microstructural effects become important at regions of stress concentrators such as notches, cracks and contact surfaces. A multiscale model is presented that efficiently captures microstructural details at such critical regions. The approach is based on a multiresolution mesh that includes an explicit microstructure representation at critical regions where stresses are localized. At regions farther away from the stress concentration, a reduced order model that statistically captures the effect of the microstructure is employed. The statistical model is based on a finite element representation of the orientation distribution function (ODF). As an illustrative example, we have applied the multiscaling method to compute the stress intensity factor K I around the crack tip in a wedge-opening load specimen. The approach is verified with an analytical solution within linear elasticity approximation and is then extended to allow modeling of microstructural effects on crack tip plasticity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Automatic segmentation of head and neck CT images for radiotherapy treatment planning using multiple atlases, statistical appearance models, and geodesic active contours

Purpose: Accurate delineation of organs at risk (OARs) is a precondition for intensity modulated radiation therapy. However, manual delineation of OARs is time consuming and prone to high interobserver variability. Because of image artifacts and low image contrast between different structures, however, the number of available approaches for autosegmentation of structures in the head-neck area is still rather low. In this project, a new approach for automated segmentation of head-neck CT images that combine the robustness of multiatlas-based segmentation with the flexibility of geodesic active contours and the prior knowledge provided by statistical appearance models is presented. Methods: The presented approach is using an atlas-based segmentation approach in combination with label fusion in order to initialize a segmentation pipeline that is based on using statistical appearance models and geodesic active contours. An anatomically correct approximation of the segmentation result provided by atlas-based segmentation acts as a starting point for an iterative refinement of this approximation. The final segmentation result is based on using model to image registration and geodesic active contours, which are mutually influencing each other. Results: 18 CT images in combination with manually segmented labels of parotid glands and brainstem were used in a leave-one-out cross validation scheme in order to evaluate the presented approach. For this purpose, 50 different statistical appearance models have been created and used for segmentation. Dice coefficient (DC), mean absolute distance and max. Hausdorff distance between the autosegmentation results and expert segmentations were calculated. An average Dice coefficient of DC = 0.81 (right parotid gland), DC = 0.84 (left parotid gland), and DC = 0.86 (brainstem) could be achieved. Conclusions: The presented framework provides accurate segmentation results for three important structures in the head neck area. Compared to a segmentation approach based on using multiple atlases in combination with label fusion, the proposed hybrid approach provided more accurate results within a clinically acceptable amount of time.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A Stochastic Reduced-Order Model for Statistical Microstructure Descriptors Evolution

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been a crucial building block for modern materials development, relieving heavy reliance on experiments and significantly accelerating the materials design process. However, ICME models are also computationally expensive, particularly with respect to time integration for dynamics, which hinders the ability to study statistical ensembles and thermodynamic properties of large systems for long time scales. To alleviate the computational bottleneck, we propose to model the evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors as a continuous-time stochastic process using a non-linear Langevin equation, where the probability density function (PDF) of the statistical microstructure descriptors, which are also the quantities of interests (QoIs), is modeled by the Fokker–Planck equation. In this work, we discuss how to calibrate the drift and diffusion terms of the Fokker–Planck equation from the theoretical and computational perspectives. The calibrated Fokker–Planck equation can be used as a stochastic reduced-order model to simulate the microstructure evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors PDF. Considering statistical microstructure descriptors in the microstructure evolution as QoIs, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in three integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models: kinetic Monte Carlo, phase field, and molecular dynamics simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized systems of nonlinear equations

Here, this work proposes a machine-learning framework for constructing statistical models of errors incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized systems of nonlinear equations. These approximate solutions may arise from early termination of an iterative method, a lower-fidelity model, or a projection-based reduced-order model, for example. The proposed statistical model comprises the sum of a deterministic regression-function model and a stochastic noise model. The method constructs the regression-function model by applying regression techniques from machine learning (e.g., support vector regression, artificial neural networks) to map features (i.e., error indicators such as sampled elements of the residual) to a prediction of the approximate-solution error. The method constructs the noise model as a mean-zero Gaussian random variable whose variance is computed as the sample variance of the approximate-solution error on a test set; this variance can be interpreted as the epistemic uncertainty introduced by the approximate solution. This work considers a wide range of feature-engineering methods, data-set-construction techniques, and regression techniques that aim to ensure that (1) the features are cheaply computable, (2) the noise model exhibits low variance (i.e., low epistemic uncertainty introduced), and (3) the regression model generalizes to independent test data. Finally, numerical experiments performed on several computational-mechanics problems and types of approximate solutions demonstrate the ability of the method to generate statistical models of the error that satisfy these criteria and significantly outperform more commonly adopted approaches for error modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Energy dependence of light hypernuclei production in heavy-ion collisions from a coalescence and statistical-thermal model perspective

A comparison of light hypernuclei production, from Ultra-relativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics (UrQMD)+coalescence and the thermal model, in heavy ion collisions over a wide range of beam energies and system sizes is presented. We find that both approaches provide generally similar results, with differences in specific details. Especially the ratios of hypertriton to Λ are affected by both the source radius Δr of the coalescence procedure as well as canonical effects. On the other hand, the double ratio S 3 is almost independent of canonical effects, which is in contrast to coalescence. Thus, both the beam energy dependence and centrality dependence of S 3 can be used to constrain the hypertriton source radius. To do so the currently available data are not yet sufficient. Elliptic flow is shown to be unaffected by the source size of the nuclei and an almost perfect mass scaling of the elliptic flow is observed. Furthermore, our predictions further suggest that the existence of the H-dibaryon(ΛΛ) seems ruled out by ALICE data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Solidarity of signal of measures for the liquid-gas phase transition in the statistical multifragmentation model

A systematic study of system size, N / Z asymmetry, and fragmenting volume effects as well as the Coulomb effect on experimental measures for the nuclear liquid-gas phase transition and the mechanism of phase transition are carried out in the framework of the statistical multifragmentation model (SMM). The measures examined here are the caloric curve, the specific heat capacity ( C v ), the multiplicity derivative (dM / dT), the moment parameters (M2 and γ2), the fluctuation of maximum fragment charge number (NVZ), the Fisher exponent (τ), and the Zipf's law parameter (ξ). A signal for the first-order phase transition for all the measures is observed. A stronger signal is observed in the system with smaller sizes or with more neutron rich or in smaller fragmenting volumes for the caloric curve, Cv, and dM/dT. The phase-transition temperatures are independent of the system size, N / Z asymmetry, fragmenting volume, and Coulomb force, which indicates these measures give a solid signal for the liquid-gas phase transition in SMM. On the other hand, the phase transition temperature and its behavior of the others slightly depend on the size, the N / Z asymmetry and the volume of the system. A negative heat capacity is observed for systems with A s ≥ 100 without the Coulomb force but disappears with the Coulomb. An instructive picture is given in the charge distributions for the observed first-order phase transition.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Automated Particle Classifier Q3 FY18 Quarterly Report

This is the third quarter of the third and final year of this project. Work during this quarter included completing and submitting the unsupervised statistical model paper for the American Statistical Association journal Statistical Analysis and Data Mining , (SADM), and nearly finishing the other paper on the semi-supervised statistical model. We prepared and presented a talk for NSARD 2018. Two papers were published in NIMA this quarter: the comprehensive paper on performance and statistical learning approaches, and the FPGA implementation paper. The team prepared and submitted to NA-22 a description of followon projects for FY19, in part based on discussions at NSARD with the NA-22 Program Manager.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Statistical generic design of glass and optimization: Selective review on oxide glasses

Designing a single glass composition for a multidimensional property space is challenging, and the difficulty increases with the number of design criteria. Traditionally, the task is accomplished using multiple statistical models that describe the relationships between composition (C) and property (P) values, i.e., C-P models. Recently, the structure (S)-property (P) statistical modeling has emerged as a complementary approach. The S-P modeling approach has also been shown to be a preferred method for modeling glass properties, particularly when a small data set is available, such as in single-component studies, or when strong nonlinearities exist between composition and properties. The combined model package, C-S-P, implements the concept of generic glass design, i.e., designing glass for performance by first selecting a specific or optimized set of glass network structural groups using S-P models and then transferring the designed structures (genes) to a particular composition using C-S models. This article reviews a set of supporting cases from the previous C-S-P modeling studies of phosphate, silicate, and borosilicate glasses, which are relevant for many critical commercial applications. The methodology for developing the statistical C-S-P database is presented, enabling the application of P?S?C to achieve a generic glass design and optimization, targeting multiple design criteria for both performance and processing properties simultaneously.

Network structure↗

Direct cross section measurement of 102 Pd ⁢(𝛾,𝑝) and 102 Pd ⁢(𝛾,𝛼) for the astrophysical 𝑝 process

Background: A handful of neutron-deficient stable nuclei, known as the “p nuclei,” cannot be produced through astrophysical neutron capture processes. Instead, some of these nuclei are proposed to be produced by 𝛾-induced reactions on existing r- and s-process seeds. The specific astrophysical site or sites are not yet identified, however, with uncertainties in the cross sections of these 𝛾-induced reactions playing a role. Databases of reaction rates for astrophysical simulations often rely on theoretical statistical model calculations, such as Hauser-Feshbach, for rates where no experimental information is known. However, reasonable variations in the choice of parametrizations of various nuclear properties can create order-of-magnitude variations in the final predicted cross sections and reaction rates, which are then propagated through the models to the predicted final abundances. Purpose: To better constrain these statistical model calculations and ultimately reduce the uncertainties from the nuclear physics on our understanding of the p nuclei, a measurement of the cross sections of 𝛾-induced reactions on the p-nucleus 102 Pd was undertaken. This work represents the first measurement of its kind, using segmented silicon detectors to measure prompt charged particle emission from 𝛾-induced reactions. Methods: Quasimonoenergetic gamma beams from the High Intensity 𝛾 Source facility bombarded an enriched 102 Pd target. A segmented silicon array was arranged to detect the particles emitted from (𝛾,𝑝) and (𝛾,𝛼) reactions. Results: Reaction cross sections were deduced at multiple 𝛾-beam energies between 10 and 19 MeV, and compared to statistical model calculations using talys-1.96. The 102 Pd ⁢(𝛾,𝑝)⁢ 101 Rh reaction cross section was reasonably well reproduced by a subset of photon strength functions and level densities, though the strength to the ground state of 101 Rh was underestimated at higher incident gamma energies. The 102 Pd ⁢(𝛾,𝛼)⁢ 98 Ru was in general overpredicted by the various alpha-nucleus optical model potentials. Conclusions: While the theoretical cross sections used to model the (𝛾,𝑝) reactions for the p process may be reasonable, a more careful approach is needed in the case of (𝛾,𝛼). Further work to probe gamma-induced reaction cross sections at and near the p nuclei is warranted.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Importance of Engineered and Learned Molecular Representations in Predicting Organic Reactivity, Selectivity, and Chemical Properties

Machine-readable chemical structure representations are foundational in all attempts to harness machine learning for the prediction of reactivities, selectivities, and chemical properties directly from molecular structure. The featurization of discrete chemical structures into a continuous vector space is a critical phase undertaken before model selection, and the development of new ways to quantitatively encode molecules is an active area of research. Here, we highlight the application and suitability of different representations, from expert-guided “engineered” descriptors to automatically “learned” features, in different prediction tasks relevant to organic and organometallic chemistry, where differing amounts of training data are available. These tasks include statistical models of stereo- and enantioselectivity, thermochemistry, and kinetics developed using experimental and quantum chemical data. The use of expert-guided molecular descriptors provides an opportunity to incorporate chemical knowledge, domain expertise, and physical constraints into statistical modeling. In applications to stereoselective organic and organometallic catalysis, where data sets may be relatively small and 3D-geometries and conformations play an important role, mechanistically informed features can be used successfully to obtain predictive statistical models that are also chemically interpretable. We provide an overview of several recent applications of this approach to obtain quantitative models for reactivity and selectivity, where topological descriptors, quantum mechanical calculations of electronic and steric properties, along with conformational ensembles, all feature as essential ingredients of the molecular representations used. Alternatively, more flexible, general-purpose molecular representations such as attributed molecular graphs can be used with machine learning approaches to learn the complex relationship between a structure and prediction target. This approach has the potential to out-perform more traditional representation methods such as “hand-crafted” molecular descriptors, particularly as data set sizes grow. One area where this is particularly relevant is in the use of large sets of quantum mechanical data to train quantitative structure–property relationships. A general approach toward curating useful data sets and training highly accurate graph neural network models is discussed in the context of organic bond dissociation enthalpies, where this strategy outperforms regression using precomputed descriptors. Finally, we describe how graph neural network predictions can be incorporated into mechanistically informed statistical models of chemical reactivity and selectivity. Once trained, this approach avoids the expensive computational overhead associated with quantum mechanical calculations, while maintaining chemical interpretability. We illustrate examples for which fast predictions of bond dissociation enthalpy and of the identities of radicals formed through cleavage of a molecule’s weakest bond are used in simple physical models of site-selectivity and reactivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

2018 fourth quarter report to NA-22 on Particle Classifier

This was the final quarter of the third and final year of this project. The team prepared and submitted this project’s final report to NA-22. Work during this quarter included responding to reviewer requests for the unsupervised statistical model paper for the American Statistical Association journal, and completing and submitting the paper about the semi-supervised statistical model to NIMA. We received the report from our North Carolina State University collaborators from the NA-22-sponsored CNEC Consortium, Professor Wilson and student Allen. The report describes their investigation of Dirichlet Process (DP) Gaussian Mixture Models based on pulse shape data from this project. The report is an appendix to this project’s final report, and may be converted into a journal paper in the coming year. Work was performed on the user interface to the Struck firmware. The project team submitted a draft workplan to NA-22 regarding additional work to diffuse improved PSD methods through the NA-22 fast neutron detection community.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗