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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2013

MARS Science Laboratory Post-Landing Location Estimation Using Post2 Trajectory Simulation

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover landed safely on Mars August 5th, 2012 at 10:32 PDT, Earth Received Time. Immediately following touchdown confirmation, best estimates of position were calculated to assist in determining official MSL locations during entry, descent and landing (EDL). Additionally, estimated balance mass impact locations were provided and used to assess how predicted locations compared to actual locations. For MSL, the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) was the primary trajectory simulation tool used to predict and assess EDL performance from cruise stage separation through rover touchdown and descent stage impact. This POST2 simulation was used during MSL operations for EDL trajectory analyses in support of maneuver decisions and imaging MSL during EDL. This paper presents the simulation methodology used and results of pre/post-landing MSL location estimates and associated imagery from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter s (MRO) High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera. To generate these estimates, the MSL POST2 simulation nominal and Monte Carlo data, flight telemetry from onboard navigation, relay orbiter positions from MRO and Mars Odyssey and HiRISE generated digital elevation models (DEM) were utilized. A comparison of predicted rover and balance mass location estimations against actual locations are also presented.

Davis, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Bayesian estimation of life parameters in the Weibull distribution.

Development of a Bayesian analysis of the scale and shape parameters in the Weibull distribution and the corresponding reliability function with respect to the usual life-testing procedures. For the scale parameter theta, Bayesian estimates of theta and reliability are obtained for the uniform, exponential, and inverted gamma prior probability densities. Bhattacharya's results (1967) for the one-parameter exponential life-testing distribution are reduced to a special case of these results. A fully Bayesian analysis of both the scale and shape parameters is developed by assuming independent prior distributions; since in the latter case, analytical tractability is not possible, Bayesian estimates are obtained through a conjunction of Monte Carlo simulation and numerical-integration techniques. In both cases, a computer simulation is carried out, and a comparison is made between the Bayesian and the corresponding minimum-variance unbiased, or maximum likelihood, estimates. As expected, the Bayesian estimates are superior.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dynamic Modeling Accuracy Dependence on Errors in Sensor Measurements, Mass Properties, and Aircraft Geometry

A nonlinear simulation of the NASA Generic Transport Model was used to investigate the effects of errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry on the accuracy of dynamic models identified from flight data. Measurements from a typical system identification maneuver were systematically and progressively deteriorated and then used to estimate stability and control derivatives within a Monte Carlo analysis. Based on the results, recommendations were provided for maximum allowable errors in sensor measurements, mass properties, and aircraft geometry to achieve desired levels of dynamic modeling accuracy. Results using other flight conditions, parameter estimation methods, and a full-scale F-16 nonlinear aircraft simulation were compared with these recommendations.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cloud Thickness from Diffusion of Lidar Pulses in Clouds

Measurements of the distribution of reflected light from a laser beam incident on an aqueous suspension of particles or "cloud" with known thickness and particle size distribution are reported. The distribution is referred to as the "cloud radiative Green's function", G. In the diffusion domain, G is sensitive to cloud thickness, allowing that important quantity to be retrieved. The goal of the laboratory simulation is to provide preliminary estimates of sensitivity of G to cloud thickness,for use in the optimal design of an offbeam Lidar instrument for remote sensing of cloud thickness (THOR, Thickness from Offbeam Returns). These clouds of polystyrene microspheres suspended in water are analogous to real clouds of water droplets suspended in air. The microsphere size distribution is roughly lognormal, from 0.5 microns to 25 microns, similar to real clouds. Density of suspended spheres is adjusted so mean-free-path of visible photons is about 10 cm, approximately 1000 times smaller than in real clouds. The light source is a ND:YAG laser at 530 nm. Detectors are flux and photon-counting Photomultiplier Tube (PMTS), with a glass probe for precise positioning. A Labview 5 VI controls positioning, and data acquisition, via an NI Motion Control board connected to a stepper motor driving an Edmund linear slider, and a 16-channel 16-bit NI-DAQ board. The stepper motor is accurate to 10 microns, and step size is selectable from the VI software. Far from the incident beam, the rate of exponential increase as the direction of the incident beam is approached scales as expected from diffusion theory, linearly with the cloud thickness, and inversely as the square root of the reduced optical thickness, and is independent of particle size. Near the beam the signal begins to increase faster than exponential, due to single and low-order scattering near the backward direction, and here the distribution depends on particle size. Results are being used to verify 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations, used to estimate signal-to-noise ratios for remotely sensed off beam returns, for both homogeneous and inhomogeneous clouds. Signal-to-noise estimates show that unfiltered observations are straight forward at night, while narrow band pass filters are being studied for day.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1987

A new approach to importance sampling for the simulation of false alarms

In this paper a modified importance sampling technique for improving the convergence of Importance Sampling is given. By using this approach to estimate low false alarm rates in radar simulations, the number of Monte Carlo runs can be reduced significantly. For one-dimensional exponential, Weibull, and Rayleigh distributions, a uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator is obtained. For Gaussian distribution the estimator in this approach is uniformly better than that of previously known Importance Sampling approach. For a cell averaging system, by combining this technique and group sampling, the reduction of Monte Carlo runs for a reference cell of 20 and false alarm rate of lE-6 is on the order of 170 as compared to the previously known Importance Sampling approach.

Lu, D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Optimal sampling and sensitivity limits of integrating detector arrays in a space environment

The performance of integrating detectors with either destructive read-out or nondestructive direct read-out in a space environment subject to charge-particle and radiation hits was investigated by determining the optimal integration time for maximizing the performance in the presence of a given hit rate. The performance relative to that expected for background-limited performance was evaluated using a combination of analytic techniques and Monte Carlo simulations. Results are used to estimate the performance degradation, due to cosmic rays, of the long-wavelength spectrometer of the Space Infrared Telescope Facility. It was found that its performance may be a factor of 1-5 worse than the background limited performance.

Herter, T.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Helioseismic Observations of the Structure and Dynamics of a Rotating Sunspot Beneath the Solar Surface

Time-distance helioseismology is applied to study the subphotospheric structures and dynamics of an unusually fast-rotating sunspot observed by the Michelson Doppler Imager on bead SOH0 in 2000 August. The subsurface sound speed structures and velocity fields are obtained for the sunspot region at different depths from 0 to 12 Mm. By comparing the subsurface sound speed variations with the surface magnetic field, we find evidence for structural twists beneath the visible surface of this active region, which may indicate that magnetic twists often seen at the photosphere also exist beneath the photosphere. We also report on the observation of subsurface horizontal vortical flows that extend to a depth of 5 Mm around this rotating sunspot and present evidence that opposite vortical flows may exist below 9 Mm. It is suggested that the vortical flows around this active region may build up a significant amount of magnetic helicity and energy to power solar eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to estimate the error propagation, and in addition the sunspot umbra is masked to test the reliability of our inversion results. On the basis of the three-dimensional velocity fields obtained from the time-distance helioseismology inversions, we estimate the subsurface kinetic helicity at different depths for the first time and conclude that it is comparable to the current helicity estimated from vector magnetograms.

Zhao, Junwei↗
NASA NTRS2010

Initial Assessment of a Rapid Method of Calculating CEV Environmental Heating

An innovative method for rapidly calculating spacecraft environmental absorbed heats in planetary orbit is described. The method employs reading a database of pre-calculated orbital absorbed heats and adjusting those heats for desired orbit parameters. The approach differs from traditional Monte Carlo methods that are orbit based with a planet centered coordinate system. The database is based on a spacecraft centered coordinated system where the range of all possible sun and planet look angles are evaluated. In an example case 37,044 orbit configurations were analyzed for average orbital heats on selected spacecraft surfaces. Calculation time was under 2 minutes while a comparable Monte Carlo evaluation would have taken an estimated 26 hours

Pickney, John T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Thermal Phase Variations of WASP-12b: Defying Predictions

We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R(sub p)/R(sub ∗))(sup 2) = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micrometers, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F(sub day)/F(sub ∗) = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micrometers, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micrometers, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 micrometer ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 micrometer transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 micrometer depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 micrometer eclipse depth, consistent with a solar composition and modest temperature inversion. We suggest future observations that could distinguish between these two scenarios.

planetary↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Computationally-Efficient Inverse Approach to Probabilistic Strain-Based Damage Diagnosis

This work presents a computationally-efficient inverse approach to probabilistic damage diagnosis. Given strain data at a limited number of measurement locations, Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling are used to estimate probability distributions of the unknown location, size, and orientation of damage. Substantial computational speedup is obtained by replacing a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model with an efficient surrogate model. The approach is experimentally validated on cracked test specimens where full field strains are determined using digital image correlation (DIC). Access to full field DIC data allows for testing of different hypothetical sensor arrangements, facilitating the study of strain-based diagnosis effectiveness as the distance between damage and measurement locations increases. The ability of the framework to effectively perform both probabilistic damage localization and characterization in cracked plates is demonstrated and the impact of measurement location on uncertainty in the predictions is shown. Furthermore, the analysis time to produce these predictions is orders of magnitude less than a baseline Bayesian approach with the FE method by utilizing surrogate modeling and effective numerical sampling approaches.

Warner, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA's X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model v 2.0

The NASA Armstrong Cost Engineering Team with technical assistance from NASA HQ (SID)has gone through the full process in developing new CERs from Version #1 to Version #2 CERs. We took a step backward and reexamined all of the data collected, such as dependent and independent variables, cost, dry weight, length, wingspan, manned versus unmanned, altitude, Mach number, thrust, and skin. We used a well- known statistical analysis tool called CO$TAT instead of using "R" multiple linear or the "Regression" tool found in Microsoft Excel(TradeMark). We setup an "array of data" by adding 21" dummy variables;" we analyzed the standard error (SE) and then determined the "best fit." We have parametrically priced-out several future X-planes and compared our results to those of other resources. More work needs to be done in getting "accurate and traceable cost data" from historical X-plane records!

life cycle cost↗
NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8x6 Supersonic Wind Tunnel

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A detailed description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. Detailed uncertainty results for the uncertainty in average free stream Mach number as well as other variables of interest are provided. All results are presented as random (variation in observed values about a true value), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty. The largest sources contributing to uncertainty are determined and potential improvement opportunities for the facility are investigated.

Error↗
NASA NTRS2016

Carbon Back Sputter Modeling for Hall Thruster Testing

Lifetime requirements for electric propulsion devices, including Hall Effect thrusters, are continually increasing, driven in part by NASA's inclusion of this technology in it's exploration architecture. NASA will demonstrate high-power electric propulsion system on the Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Demonstration Mission (SEP TDM). The Asteroid Redirect Robotic mission is one candidate SEP TDM, which is projected to require tens of thousands of thruster life. As thruster life is increased, for example through the use of improved magnetic field designs, the relative influence of facility effects increases. One such effect is the sputtering and redeposition, or back sputter, of facility materials by the high energy thruster plumes. In support of wear testing for the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) project, the back sputter from a Hall effect thruster plume has been modeled for the NASA Glenn Research Center's Vacuum Facility 5. The predicted wear at a near-worst case condition of 600 V, 12.5 kW was found to be on the order of 1 micron/kh in a fully carbon-lined chamber. A more detailed numerical Monte Carlo code was also modified to estimate back sputter for a detailed facility and pumping configuration. This code demonstrated similar back sputter rate distributions, but is not yet accurately modeling the magnitudes. The modeling has been benchmarked to recent HERMeS wear testing, using multiple microbalance measurements. These recent measurements have yielded values on the order of 1.5 - 2 micron/kh at 600 V and 12.5 kW.

Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2016

Carbon Back Sputter Modeling for Hall Thruster Testing

In support of wear testing for the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) program, the back sputter from a Hall effect thruster plume has been modeled for the NASA Glenn Research Centers Vacuum Facility 5. The predicted wear at a near-worst case condition of 600 V, 12.5 kW was found to be on the order of 3 4 mkhour in a fully carbon-lined chamber. A more detailed numerical monte carlo code was also modified to estimate back sputter for a detailed facility and pumping configuration. This code demonstrated similar back sputter rate distributions, but is not yet accurately modeling the magnitudes. The modeling has been benchmarked to recent HERMeS wear testing, using multiple microbalance measurements. These recent measurements have yielded values, on the order of 1.5- 2 microns/khour.

Facility↗
NASA NTRS2011

Unsupervised Detection of Planetary Craters by a Marked Point Process

With the launch of several planetary missions in the last decade, a large amount of planetary images is being acquired. Preferably, automatic and robust processing techniques need to be used for data analysis because of the huge amount of the acquired data. Here, the aim is to achieve a robust and general methodology for crater detection. A novel technique based on a marked point process is proposed. First, the contours in the image are extracted. The object boundaries are modeled as a configuration of an unknown number of random ellipses, i.e., the contour image is considered as a realization of a marked point process. Then, an energy function is defined, containing both an a priori energy and a likelihood term. The global minimum of this function is estimated by using reversible jump Monte-Carlo Markov chain dynamics and a simulated annealing scheme. The main idea behind marked point processes is to model objects within a stochastic framework: Marked point processes represent a very promising current approach in the stochastic image modeling and provide a powerful and methodologically rigorous framework to efficiently map and detect objects and structures in an image with an excellent robustness to noise. The proposed method for crater detection has several feasible applications. One such application area is image registration by matching the extracted features.

Troglio, G.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Under-Constrained SEE Data: Implications for Estimating and Bounding SEE Rates

Increasingly scarce SEE testing resources and rapid growth of the New Space sector have increased the prevalence of under-constrained SEE data. We develop Monte Carlo tools to assess implications for SEE rate estimation. We also show that Bayesian Priors based on large datasets of SEL susceptible parts can augment under-constrained data and improve bounds on SEL rates. The resulting Bayesian Priors are also useful for bounding system SEL risk.

Single-event effect↗
NASA NTRS1988

Impact as a general cause of extinction: A feasibility test

Large body impact has been implicated as the possible cause of several extinction events. This is entirely plausible if one accepts two propositions: (1) that impacts of large comets and asteroids produce environmental effects severe enough to cause significant species extinctions and (2) that the estimates of comet and asteroid flux for the Phanerozoic are approximately correct. A resonable next step is to investigate the possibility that impact could be a significant factor in the broader Phanerozoic extinction record, not limited merely to a few events of mass extinction. Monte Carlo simulation experiments based on existing flux estimates and reasonable predictions of the relationship between bolide diameter and extinction are discussed. The simulation results raise the serious possibility that large body impact may be a more pervasive factor in extinction than has been assumed heretofore. At the very least, the experiments show that the comet and asteroid flux estimates combined with a reasonable kill curve produces a reasonable extinction record, complete with occasional mass extinctions and the irregular, lower intensity extinctions commonly called background extinction.

Raup, David M.↗