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WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of Reanalyses (TIRA): Motivation and Progress

Reanalyses have proven to be an important resource for weather and climate related research, as well as societal applications at large. Several centers have emerged to produce new atmospheric reanalyses in various forms every few years. In addition, land and ocean communities are producing disciplinary uncoupled reanalyses. Current research and development in reanalysis is directed at (1) extending the length of reanalyzed period and (2) use of coupled Earth system models for climate reanalysis. While WCRPs involvement in the reanalyses communities through its Data Advisory Council (WDAC) has been substantial, for example in organizing international conferences on reanalyses, a central team of reanalyses expertise is not in place in the WCRP structure. The differences among reanalyses and their inherent uncertainties are some of the most important questions for both users and developers of reanalyses. Therefore, a collaborative effort to systematically assess and intercompare reanalyses would be a logical progression that fills the needs of the community and contributes to the WCRP mission. The primary charge to the TIRA is to develop a reanalysis intercomparison project plan that will attain the following objectives.1)To foster understanding and estimation of uncertainties in reanalysis data by intercomparison and other means 2)To communicate new developments and best practices among the reanalyses producing centers 3)To enhance the understanding of data and assimilation issues and their impact on uncertainties, leading to improved reanalyses for climate assessment 4)To communicate the strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, their fitness for purpose, and best practices in the use of reanalysis datasets by the scientific community. This presentation outlines the need for a task team on reanalyses, their intercomparison, the objectives of the team and progress thus far.

WDA↗

Insight and Evidence Motivating the Simplification of Dual-Analysis Hybrid Systems into Single-Analysis Hybrid Systems

Many hybrid data assimilation systems currently used for NWP employ some form of dual-analysis system approach. Typically a hybrid variational analysis is responsible for creating initial conditions for high-resolution forecasts, and an ensemble analysis system is responsible for creating sample perturbations used to form the flow-dependent part of the background error covariance required in the hybrid analysis component. In many of these, the two analysis components employ different methodologies, e.g., variational and ensemble Kalman filter. In such cases, it is not uncommon to have observations treated rather differently between the two analyses components; recentering of the ensemble analysis around the hybrid analysis is used to compensated for such differences. Furthermore, in many cases, the hybrid variational high-resolution system implements some type of four-dimensional approach, whereas the underlying ensemble system relies on a three-dimensional approach, which again introduces discrepancies in the overall system. Connected to these is the expectation that one can reliably estimate observation impact on forecasts issued from hybrid analyses by using an ensemble approach based on the underlying ensemble strategy of dual-analysis systems. Just the realization that the ensemble analysis makes substantially different use of observations as compared to their hybrid counterpart should serve as enough evidence of the implausibility of such expectation. This presentation assembles numerous anecdotal evidence to illustrate the fact that hybrid dual-analysis systems must, at the very minimum, strive for consistent use of the observations in both analysis sub-components. Simpler than that, this work suggests that hybrid systems can reliably be constructed without the need to employ a dual-analysis approach. In practice, the idea of relying on a single analysis system is appealing from a cost-maintenance perspective. More generally, single-analysis systems avoid contradictions such as having to choose one sub-component to generate performance diagnostics to another, possibly not fully consistent, component.

Todling, Ricardo↗

Nature-Inspired Motivation for Developing Self-Healable Electrical Insulation

Polymeric aircraft electrical insulation normally degrade by partial discharge with increasing voltage, which causes excessive localized Joule heating in the material and ultimately leads to dielectric failure of the insulator through thermal breakdown. Self-healing insulation may be a viable option to mitigate permanent mechanical degradation, thus increasing the longevity of the material. Instead of relying on catalyst and monomer-filled microcapsules to crack, flow, and cure at the damaged sites described in well-published mechanisms, self-healing through establishment of ionic crosslinks allows for multiple healing events to occur as well as achieving full recovery strength under certain thermal environments. Surlyn®, a commercial ionically-crosslinked material, was investigated as a self-healing insulation candidate based on prior demonstrations of self-healing behavior. Thin films of varying thicknesses were investigated and the effects of thickness on the dielectric strength were evaluated and compared to representative polymer insulators. The effects of thermal conditioning on the recovery strength and healing were observed as a function of time following dielectric breakdown. Moisture absorption was studied to determine if moisture absorption rates in Surlyn® were lower than that of common polyimide insulators. Preliminary data showed that when cut, Surlyn® films lost nearly 60 percent of its original dielectric strength. However, when Surlyn® was cut and subsequently annealed, the films not only re-mended, but also recouped approximately 93 percent of its original dielectric strength, along with 90-97 percent of its mechanical strength.

electrical↗

WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of ReAnalyses (TIRA): Motivation and Progress

Reanalyses have proven to be an important resource for weather and climate related research, as well as societal applications at large. New atmospheric reanalyses in various forms are produced every few years. In addition, land and ocean communities are producing disciplinary uncoupled reanalyses, and regional reanalyses are emerging in addition to global reanalyses. Systems of data information are being developed to facilitate the intercomparison of reanalyses among themselves and with observations and climate change experiments (e.g. CREATE-IP and WRIT). Current research and development in reanalysis is directed at (1) extending the length of reanalyzed period and (2) use of coupled Earth system models for climate reanalysis. While the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) involvement in the reanalyses communities through its Data Advisory Council (WDAC) has been substantial, for example in organizing international conferences on reanalyses. However, these efforts have previously not included an analysis of the differences among reanalyses and their inherent uncertainties which are important questions for both users and developers of reanalyses. Therefore, the WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of ReAnalyses (TIRA) task team has been formed as collaborative effort to address reanalyses role in WCRP. This constitutes a logical progression that fills the needs of the community and contributes to the WCRP mission. The primary charge to TIRA is to develop a reanalysis intercomparison project plan that will attain the following objectives.1)To foster understanding and estimation of uncertainties in reanalysis data by intercomparison and other means)To communicate new developments and best practices among the reanalyses producing centers3)To enhance the understanding of data and assimilation issues and their impact on uncertainties, leading to improved reanalyses for climate assessment4)To communicate the strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, their fitness for purpose, and best practices in the use of reanalysis datasets by the scientific communityThis contribution outlines the need for a task team on reanalyses, their intercomparison, the objectives of the team and progress thus far. Results for some pilot intercomparisons will also be discussed.

Bosilovich, Michael↗

LongRunMIP - Motivation and Design for a Large Collection of Millennial-Length AO-GCM Simulations

LongRunMIP is the first collection of millennial-length simulations of complex coupled climate models and enables investigations of how these models equilibrate in response to radiative perturbations.We present a model intercomparison project, LongRunMIP, the first collection of millennial-length (1000+ year) simulations of complex coupled climate models with a representation of ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, and land surface, and their interactions. Standard model simulations are generally only a few hundred years long. However, modeling the long-term equilibration in response to radiative forcing perturbation is important for understanding many climate phenomena, such as the evolution of ocean circulation, time-and temperature-dependent feedbacks, and the differentiation of forced signal and internal variability. The aim of LongRunMIP is to facilitate research into these questions by serving as an archive for simulations that capture as much of this equilibration as possible. The only requirement to participate in LongRunMIP is to contribute a simulation with elevated, constant CO2 forcing that lasts at least 1000 years. LongRunMIP is a MIP of opportunity in that the simulations were mostly performed prior to the conception of the archive without an agreed-upon set of experiments. For most models, the archive contains a preindustrial control simulation and simulations with an idealized (typically abrupt) CO2 forcing. We collect 2D surface and top-of-atmosphere fields, and 3D ocean temperature and salinity fields. Here, we document the collection of simulations and discuss initial results, including the evolution of surface and deep ocean temperature and cloud radiative effects. As of summer 2019, the collection includes 50 simulations of 15 models by 10 modeling centers. The data of LongRunMIP are publicly available. We encourage submission of more simulations in the future.

Maria Rugenstein↗

TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI): motivations and protocol version 1.0

Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) or the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M-dwarf system TRAPPIST-1, which has seven known transiting planets for which transit timing variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ∼66 % of the Earth's incident radiation and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is, therefore, one of the prime targets for the JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global climate models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to intercompare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e, but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed of modern-Earth and pure-CO2 atmospheres and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM); however, this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.

Thomas Jean Daniel Fauchez↗

TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Motivations and Protocol Version 1.0.

TRAPPIST-1 is one of the most promising targets for follow-up observations due to the depths of the planetary transit signals. The transits of the seven rocky planets in this system are relatively deep because the system is located about 12~pc away, and the star is star is relatively small (0.121 R), even for an M-type star. Among the star's seven planets, three orbit within the Habitable Zone where surface temperatures would allow surface water to exist. Amongst these three habitable zone planets, TRAPPIST-1e has been identified, by previous 3-D climate simulations, as the most habitable planet, for which surface liquid water can be present for an extended set of atmospheric configurations. TRAPPIST1e is therefore considered the favorite target for atmospheric characterization by transmission spectroscopy with JWST. This has all caused a considerable amount of interest in TRAPPIST-1E, and simulations thereof, in order to derive constraints on its possible atmosphere and serve as a guideline for future observations.

TRAPPIST-1 HABITABLE ATMOSPHERE INTERCOMPARISON (T↗

Motivations and Preliminary Design for Mid-Air Deployment of a Science Rotorcraft on Mars

Mid-Air Deployment (MAD) of a rotorcraft during Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) on Mars eliminates the need to carry a propulsion or airbag landing system. This reduces the total mass inside the aeroshell by more than 100 kg, aeroshell complexity, and likely the risk and cost associated to the mission. Moreover, the lighter entry mass enables landing in the Martian highlands, at elevations inaccessible to current EDL technologies. This paper proposes a novel MAD concept for a Mars helicopter. We suggest a minimum science payload package to perform relevant science in the highlands. A variant of the Ingenuity helicopter is proposed to provide increased deceleration during MAD, and enough lift to fly the science payload in the highlands. We show in simulation that the lighter aeroshell results in lower terminal velocity (30 m/s) at the end of the parachute phase of the EDL, and at higher altitudes than other approaches. After discussing the aerodynamics, controls, guidance and mechanical challenges associated to deploying at such speed, we propose a backshell architecture that addresses them to release the helicopter in the safest conditions. Finally, we implemented the helicopter model and aerodynamic descent perturbations in the JPL Dynamics and Real-Time Simulation (DARTS) framework. Preliminary performance evaluation indicate landing and helicopter operations can be achieved up to +5 km MOLA.

Rapin, William↗

Quiet Spacecraft Cabin Ventilation Fan Development: Motivation and Context

It is important to control acoustical noise aboard crewed space vehicles and space habitats to provide a satisfactory environment for voice communications, alarm audibility, and restful sleep, and to minimize the risk for hearing loss and annoyance. As with most noise control efforts, it is best to control the noise at the source, and for spaceflight vehicles these are typically the fans associated with the Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) system. These include air ventilation fans, such as the main air conditioning fan (the ‘cabin fan’), intermodule ventilation (IMV) fans, air revitalization fans (for removal of carbon dioxide and trace contaminates), and thermal cooling fans. Thermal cooling pumps that circulate cooling fluid are another significant noise source in spaceflight vehicles, but these are outside of the scope of this paper. Throughout the history of crewed spaceflight, there have been issues with noise from ECLS ventilation fans. In the Apollo Command Module (CM) the crew would turn off the CM cabin fan once in orbit and use the backup suit-loop fan for ventilation because noise from the cabin fan interfered with communications and was an annoyance. On the Space Shuttle the ventilation system underwent significant redesign, including the addition of ventilation system mufflers, with resulting noise levels that were still too-high for long-duration missions. In the early years of International Space Station (ISS) operations, acoustical noise was one of the top two habitability issues, resulting in significant noise controls (along with significant cost and crew-time impacts) being implemented on-orbit on many fans, with significant noise reductions realized only after replacing noisy fans with fans of a quieter design, funded by the ISS Program. And, with the spaceflight vehicles and habitats currently being developed, there are again concerns with noise levels from ventilation fans. In the Orion vehicle, additional duct mufflers needed to be added to address the cabin fan noise. The Gateway’s Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) module and low-Earth orbit (LEO) Freeflyer habitats are currently working to solve this problem. This will also be an issue for lunar and Mars spaceflight vehicles, space suits, and surface habitats. In an effort to address this problem, NASA is working to leverage the technology developed in its Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD), specifically at the Glenn Research Center (GRC), to design highly efficient and quiet fans for reducing community noise levels from civilian aircraft. This technology was created over decades of research and development, and was proven to be effective at reducing aircraft noise levels. The current collaboration across NASA Centers, including HQ, GRC, and the Johnson Space Center (JSC) in this area is the first effort at re-purposing these tools, i.e. design codes and techniques, developed for high Reynolds number fans to spaceflight vehicle and habitat, low Reynolds number, fans. This paper will discuss the need for transfer of aeronautics fan design technology to spaceflight use. This paper will also discuss the potential benefits from this, which are significant, including 1) volume and mass savings from noise controls that are no longer as large or needed at all, 2) reduced system pressure loss from mufflers and silencers (that don’t need to be as restrictive) for better ventilation, 3) reduced power draw because of the reduced system pressure loss and the highly efficient fan design, and 4) satisfying spaceflight vehicle acoustic requirements to provide a safe and habitable acoustic environment for astronaut crewmembers. All of these benefits will be crucial for the successful development and operations of future spaceflight vehicles, space suits, and habitats.

Christopher S. Allen↗

Quiet Spacecraft Cabin Ventilation Fan Development: Motivation and Context

It is important to control acoustical noise aboard crewed space vehicles and space habitats to provide a satisfactory environment for voice communications, alarm audibility, and restful sleep, and to minimize the risk for hearing loss and annoyance. As with most noise control efforts, it is best to control the noise at the source, and for spaceflight vehicles these are typically the fans associated with the Environmental Control and Life Support system. These include cabin ventilation fans and intermodule ventilation fans, among others. Throughout the history of crewed spaceflight, there have been issues with noise from ventilation fans, going back to Apollo. And, with the spaceflight vehicles and habitats currently being developed, there are again concerns with noise from ventilation fans. To address this problem, NASA is working to leverage the technology developed in its Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, specifically at the Glenn Research Center, to design highly efficient and quiet fans for reducing community noise levels from civilian aircraft. This paper will discuss the need for transfer of this technology to spaceflight use, and will discuss the potential benefits, which are significant and will be crucial for the successful development and operations of future spaceflight vehicles, space suits, and habitats.

Christopher S. Allen↗

Finite Element Modeling of Extravehicular Mobility Units for Use With Human Body Models – Motivation, Major Challenges, Use Cases and Preliminary Work

Finite element modeling of pressurized spacesuits and implementation with human body models offers many advantages over physical experimentation, but also presents significant challenges. A model of pressurized spacesuit softgoods was developed, integrated with an existing hardgoods model, and fitted to a human body model. Two representative loading scenarios were simulated: dynamic external suit loading and internal occupant-driven loading, to serve as proof-of-concept for the modeling techniques employed. The modeled interactions behaved as intended and illustrate that finite element models of pressurized spacesuits can be used in conjunction with human body models to assess the biomechanical behavior. Further model development and experimental validation are needed.

Finite Element↗