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DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and simulating the weather forecast uncertainty for advanced building control

Weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable despite technological advancements. Accurately quantifying and modelling this uncertainty is essential for developing and comparing advanced building controllers. In this study, we present a structured approach using a first-order autoregressive model (AR(1)) to model uncertainty in ambient temperature and global solar irradiation (GHI) forecasts. We analyzed weather data from four cities and employed Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD) to evaluate the similarity between synthetic and actual forecast errors. The average JSD values for temperature are 0.027 (Berkeley), 0.021 (Leuven), 0.018 (Berlin), and 0.008 (Oslo), and for GHI, the average JSD values are 0.016 (Berkeley), 0.058 (Leuven), and 0.013 (Berlin). The low JSD values indicate a high similarity between the synthetic and real forecast error distributions. Further, our approach successfully generates synthetic weather forecasts that mirror the statistical properties of actual forecasts. The implementation of our method for uncertain forecast generation is being added to the BOPTEST framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Research Needs for Trusted Analytics in National Security Settings

As artificial intelligence, machine learning, and statistical modeling methods become commonplace in national security applications, the drive to create trusted analytics becomes increasingly important. The goal of this report is to identify areas of research that can provide the foundational understanding and technical prerequisites for the development and deployment of trusted analytics in national security settings. Our review of the literature covered several disjoint research communities, including computer science, statistics, human factors, and several branches of psychology and cognitive science, which tend not to interact with one another or cite each other's literatures. As a result, there exists no agreed-upon theoretical framework for understanding how various factors influence trust and no well-established empirical paradigm for studying these effects. This report therefore takes three steps. First, we define several key terms in an effort to provide a unifying language for trusted analytics and to manage the scope of the problem. Second, we outline an empirical perspective that identifies key independent, moderating, and dependent variables in assessing trusted analytics. Though not a substitute for a theoretical framework, the empirical perspective does support research and development of trusted analytics in the national security domain. Finally, we discuss several research gaps relevant to developing trusted analytics for the national security mission space.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling fundamental mechanisms of silicon nitride crystallization in microelectronics manufacturing

This research project investigates the fundamental mechanisms of silicon nitride (SiN) crystallization, aiming to enhance the understanding of this critical material in microelectronics manufacturing. Through a collaborative effort between Sandia National Laboratories, the University of Tennessee, and the University of Florida, we developed a comprehensive framework that integrates experimental techniques, atomistic modeling, meso-scale simulations, and an integrated multi-scale model to capture this physical phenomenon on multiple time and length scales . The project developed a new machine learning based atomistic potential and utilized advanced phase field modeling to capture the complexities of polycrystalline growth and the influence of mechanical stresses on crystallization dynamics. By employing a grain tracker algorithm, the meso-scale model effectively identified and tracked individual crystal grains, enabling the simulation of anisotropic growth behaviors reflective of SiN’s physical properties. The integration of atomistic simulations with meso-scale modeling created a powerful multi-scale framework that validated atomistic inputs and enhanced predictive accuracy for crystallization dynamics at larger scales, validated experimentally. This adaptable modeling capability not only accelerates development times by informing manufacturing processes but also serves as a valuable starting point for understanding crystallization physics in similar materials. The insights gained from this research unlock new opportunities for the development of advanced materials tailored for future microelectronics and photonics applications. Overall, this project represents a significant advancement in understanding of fundamental physics of SiN and establishes a foundation for future research in material science, bridging the gap between atomic-level phenomena and macroscopic material behaviors for practical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Materials and Fuels Complex: Five-Year Investment Strategy (FY2021-2025)

The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) vision is to “Advance nuclear energy science and technology to meet U.S. energy, environmental, and economic needs.” The Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) serves as the foundation of a nuclear RD&D enabling test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and is an integral part of a National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) strategy. MFC facilities focus on developing and maintaining RD&D capabilities that can increase research throughput, reduce barriers to deployment, and facilitate commercialization of new ideas and technologies for clean and secure sources of energy.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Materials and Fuels Complex (FY22 – FY26 Five-Year Investment Strategy)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Rapid Permafrost Thaw on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes in a Warmer and Wetter Future (Final Technical Report)

When ice-rich permafrost thaws, the ground subsides, creating thermokarst landscapes with dramatically different soil conditions and carbon fluxes than the original ecosystem. Roughly 20% of the northern permafrost region is susceptible to thermokarst formation (Olefeldt et al., 2016). Thermokarst formation is often rapid; tens of meters of permafrost can thaw within a few years (Schuur et al., 2015). In topographically low areas, thermokarst thaw converts boreal forest or tundra dry shrub ecosystems into sedge or Sphagnum moss wetlands (Olefeldt et al., 2016). While this type of landscape transformation releases carbon stored in permafrost into the atmosphere, on longer time scales, it facilitates sequestration of atmospheric carbon in plant biomass because permafrost thaw releases plant-available nutrients and wetlands are highly productive (M. C. Jones et al., 2017). However, wetlands also generate methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. Methane emissions from thermokarst wetlands can cause these carbon-sequestering systems to have a positive global warming potential (Johansson et al., 2006; Turetsky et al., 2007). Our project objective was to improve Earth System and environmental predictability by advancing understanding of how CO 2 and CH 4 flux in permafrost thaw-induced wetlands (thermokarst) will change in the future as temperatures and climate conditions shift. Northern latitudes are expected to get warmer and wetter (IPCC 2013), and initiation and expansion of thermokarst thaw is expected to increase (Jorgenson et al. 2006; Zhang et al. 2017). Given these expected changes, our work sought to address three broad questions: Q1) How will northern latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions respond to warming temperatures? Q2) What is the impact of precipitation on permafrost thaw and carbon emissions? Q3) How do CO2 and CH4 emissions change as wetlands age after permafrost thaw? To answer these questions, we took both a modeling and measurement approach. Modeling work was conducted with DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Empirical work took place in two primary locations. The first was a thermokarst site near Fairbanks, AK. The site is part of the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research program and is well instrumented (Neumann et al., 2019). The second was an isolated thawing permafrost wetland located on Kenai Peninsula — Brown’s Lake bog (B. M. Jones et al., 2016) — where the current climate is representative of what is expected at higher latitudes in the future. This site provides an ideal opportunity to test our hypotheses about how thermokarst wetland dynamics will respond to future environmental conditions. In addition, the project collaborated with researchers asking similar questions who were collecting measurements in high latitude post-glacial lakes located in collaborators tackling similar questions in Sweden (Stordalen Mire) (Emerson et al., 2021). Project efforts directly aligned with the stated goal of the funding opportunity announcement (FOA), which was “to improve the understanding and representation of terrestrial ecosystems in ways that advance Earth system model parameterizations and capabilities... thereby improving the quality of Earth and environmental model projections and providing the scientific foundation needed to support DOE’s science and energy missions.” Specifically, the project improved sophistication and accuracy of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), which is being developed primarily at DOE National Laboratories to support scientific research and decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Support for the Core Research Activities and Studies of the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (DE-SC0020446 Final Technical Report)

Supported the core operations of the National Academies' Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB). Helped support planning and conducting of board meetings, identification of priority topics in computer science and other areas of computing and communications technologies, and oversight for CSTB's portfolio of studies and convenings. Activities shaped and overseen included: a workshop on Al for scientific discovery; collaborative work with other Academies units on a study on foundational research gaps and future directions for digital twins; a study on current capabilities, future prospects, and governance of facial recognition technologies, a study on post- exascale computing; a study on fostering responsible computing research, collaborative work with other Academies units on automated research workflows for accelerated scientific discovery; a study on meeting federal cybersecurity workforce needs, and a study of the ecosystem driving information technology innovation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty

Inverse problems, which aim to infer unknown properties of a system using experimental and observational data, are central to addressing many of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) most critical scientific and engineering challenges. Accurate, computationally efficient, and data-efficient solutions to inverse problems are essential for advancing DOE mission-critical science drivers, including analyzing data from large-scale experimental facilities, optimizing fusion reactor performance, accelerating materials discovery, enhancing geophysical imaging, improving wildfire predictions, and enabling autonomous systems and digital twins. However, these problems are becoming increasingly complex, often involving nonlinear, highdimensional, and interconnected systems and models that span multiple physics and scales, while relying on data with varying quantity, quality, and information content. Compounding these challenges is the uncertainty inherent in DOE-relevant systems, where errors in inputs, noise in data, incompleteness of data, and discrepancies between models and reality constrain the accuracy and precision of solutions. At the same time, the convergence of recent scientific computing trends—scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing—is creating unprecedented opportunities for tackling these challenges. The cross-cutting nature of inverse problems, combined with their growing complexity and rapidly evolving data and algorithmic demands, strongly motivates the formulation of a prioritized research agenda to maximize their capabilities and impact. In response to this need, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Inverse Problems for Complex Systems Under Uncertainty in June 2025. This workshop brought together experts across disciplines to identify grand challenges and major opportunities in the field. Through collaborative discussions, the workshop defined transformative research directions aimed at addressing the mathematical, statistical, and computational challenges posed by inverse problems under uncertainty. As a result of these efforts, four priority research directions (PRDs) were identified to guide future research and development in this area. These PRDs, summarized below, represent a roadmap for advancing the foundational science and mathematics of inverse problems, enabling robust, scalable, and uncertainty-aware solutions that are critical for DOE applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sequim Campus Master Plan

Based in Richland, Washington, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is one of ten U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (SC) national laboratories. PNNL is DOE’s premier chemistry, earth sciences, and data analytics laboratory, delivering vital mission impacts in energy resiliency and national security. PNNL has 19 core capabilities, each a powerful combination of world-class staff, state-of-the- art equipment, and mission-ready facilities. These capabilities represent a collective set of skills and a body of world-leading scientific and engineering work that provides exceptional value and mission delivery to DOE, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and other federal agencies and industry through strategic partnership projects on a not-to-interfere basis. Currently operated by Battelle Memorial Institute, PNNL occupies more than 2.3 million gross square feet (GSF) of buildings and employs approximately 4,700 staff members. PNNL has implemented a rolling 10-year campus strategy, initiated in fiscal year 2013, designed to deliver the foundation for the multidisciplinary science and engineering expertise, equipment, instrumentation, facilities, and infrastructure required to continue providing exceptional value and mission delivery. This strategy is incorporated into PNNL’s annual Laboratory Plan, which serves as DOE-SC’s equivalent of the Five- Year Site Plan required by DOE Order 430.1C Chg. 1, Real Property Asset Management. The PNNL Sequim Campus is located in Clallam County, just outside of Sequim, Washington. PNNL Sequim builds upon a rich history of research related to marine and coastal resources, environmental chemistry, water resources modeling, ecotoxicology, biotechnology, and national security. Facilities at the PNNL Sequim Campus were designed to take advantage of two unique locational assets: the pristine coastal ocean water in Sequim Bay and the region’s exceptionally clean air. Research facilities on the waterfront are supplied with up to 200 gallons per minute (gpm) of seawater and/or groundwater that enables research on aquatic systems ranging from fully seawater to fresh water, with an onsite water treatment system that removes all biological and hazardous chemical residues prior to discharge. Multiple large seawater tanks outside the waterfront laboratories, along with a boat ramp, pier, and floating dock, enable lab-to-field research. The uplands facility takes advantage of the amazing air quality and is built and operated to enable ultratrace chemical/radiological analytical chemistry. This combination of capabilities is not available at any other marine laboratory in the nation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intrinsic and environmental drivers of pairwise cohesion in wild Canis social groups

Animals within social groups respond to costs and benefits of sociality by adjusting the proportion of time they spend in close proximity to other individuals in the group (cohesion). Variation in cohesion between individuals, in turn, shapes important group-level processes such as subgroup formation and fission–fusion dynamics. Although critical to animal sociality, a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing cohesion remains a gap in our knowledge of cooperative behavior in animals. We tracked 574 individuals from six species within the genus Canis in 15 countries on four continents with GPS telemetry to estimate the time that pairs of individuals within social groups spent in close proximity and test hypotheses regarding drivers of cohesion. Pairs of social canids (Canis spp.) varied widely in the proportion of time they spent together (5%–100%) during seasonal monitoring periods relative to both intrinsic characteristics and environmental conditions. The majority of our data came from three species of wolves (gray wolves, eastern wolves, and red wolves) and coyotes. For these species, cohesion within social groups was greatest between breeding pairs and varied seasonally as the nature of cooperative activities changed relative to annual life history patterns. Across species, wolves were more cohesive than coyotes. For wolves, pairs were less cohesive in larger groups, and when suitable, small prey was present reflecting the constraints of food resources and intragroup competition on social associations. Pair cohesion in wolves declined with increased anthropogenic modification of the landscape and greater climatic variability, underscoring challenges for conserving social top predators in a changing world. We show that pairwise cohesion in social groups varies strongly both within and across Canis species, as individuals respond to changing ecological context defined by resources, competition, and anthropogenic disturbance. Our work highlights that cohesion is a highly plastic component of animal sociality that holds significant promise for elucidating ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underlying cooperative behavior.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Advancement in Weather and Water Prediction in the Upper Colorado River Basin: The SPLASH Campaign

Water is a critical resource that causes significant challenges to inhabitants of the western United States. These challenges are likely to intensify as the result of expanding population and climate-related changes that act to reduce runoff in areas of complex terrain. To better understand the physical processes that drive the transition of mountain precipitation to streamflow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has deployed suites of environmental sensors throughout the East River watershed of Colorado as part of the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH). This includes surface-based sensors over a network of five different observing sites, airborne platforms, and sophisticated remote sensors to provide detailed information on spatiotemporal variability of key parameters. With a 2-yr deployment, these sensors offer detailed insight into precipitation, the lower atmosphere, and the surface, and support the development of datasets targeting improved prediction of weather and water. Initial datasets have been published and are laying a foundation for improved characterization of physical processes and their interactions driving mountain hydrology, evaluation and improvement of numerical prediction tools, and educational activities. SPLASH observations contain a depth and breadth of information that enables a variety of atmospheric and hydrological science analyses over the coming years that leverage collaborations between national laboratories, academia, and stakeholders, including industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Task with Procter and Gamble (CRADA No. NFE-10-02672)

The purpose of this Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between UT-Battelle, LLC (the “Contractor) and Procter & Gamble Company (the “Participant”) is the development of a research partnership to create new tools, tests and analytical methods to improve the performance, safety and/or environmental quality of chemicals, advanced materials, food products and manufacturing processes. The Participant operates in three global business units: Beauty, Health and Well-Being and Household Care. Some of its worldwide products include Head and Shoulders®, Pantene®, Gillette® razors and personal care products, Crest®, Dawn®, Tide®, Bounty®, Duracell® batteries; and Iams® pet food among others. At its core, however, the Participant is a science driven company. It supports one of the most robust industrial research and development (R&D) programs in the world. The Participant uses this rich foundation of science to drive innovation across all of its product lines. But the innovation process is not confined in-house The Participant pursues an “open innovation” policy, seeking partnerships with scientists and researchers in universities and national laboratories where it can contribute its extensive knowledge assets and collaborate to advance scientific understanding. The research under this multi-task CRADA was directed under the following general task areas and, throughout the duration of this CRADA the work statement was modified to match the needs of the Parties and the direction of the research. (1) Software modeling, simulation and development; (2) Manufacturing Technologies; (3) Supply Chain Optimization, (4) Advanced Materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

OLCF’s Advanced Computing Ecosystem (ACE): FY25 Update for Ongoing Efforts

The advent of widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models in science, coupled with fast data production rates of scientific instruments strain the traditional batch-oriented high-performance computing (HPC) environment. As scientific exploration continues to require more data and faster processing and analysis, new emerging technologies and capabilities to enable cross-facility and time-sensitive workflows are required for seamless integration of HPC and experimental facilities. The Advanced Computing Ecosystem (ACE) is a strategic initiative within the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) established in 2024 to support the development of cutting-edge technologies to advance computational research and infrastructure at OLCF and across the Department of Energy (DOE). Several DOE initiatives are spearheading the evolution of the scientific landscape by blurring facility boundaries and connecting the user facilities to advance scientific capabilities and ensure energy dominance. The DOE Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI) program is one example that is laying a foundation to support complex cross-facility workflows. The IRI program aims to integrate diverse computational resources, data infrastructures, and scientific instruments to facilitate collaboration and accelerate scientific discovery. The Interconnected Science Ecosystem (INTERSECT) initiative at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is another example that aims to revolutionize scientific research through AI-driven, interconnected autonomous laboratories and research facilities. Finally, the American Science Cloud (AmSC), recently announced in the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, aims to leverage prior infrastructure efforts of the IRI and automation and AI efforts of INTERSECT (and others) to build a federated, AI-augmented AmSC platform to unify the DOE’s computing, experimental, and data resources to catalyze scientific innovation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

APS Science 2020 (Vol. 1)

The U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Photon Source (APS) is one of the world’s most productive x-ray light source facilities. Each year, the APS provides high-brightness x-ray beams to a diverse community of more than 5,000 researchers in materials science, chemistry, condensed matter physics, the life and environmental sciences, and applied research. Researchers using the APS produce over 2,000 publications each year detailing impactful discoveries, and solve more vital biological protein structures than users of any other x-ray light source research facility. APS x-rays are ideally suited for explorations of materials and biological structures; elemental distribution; chemical, magnetic, electronic states; and a wide range of technologically important engineering systems from batteries to fuel injector sprays, all of which are the foundations of our nation’s economic, technological, and physical well-being. The APS occupies an 80-acre site on the Argonne campus, about 25 miles from downtown Chicago, Illinois. It shares a site with the Center for Nanoscale Materials and the Advanced Protein Characterization Facility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Report series: Evaluation, Finding of Effect, and Mitigation Documentation for the 1960s Dormitories and 1950s Quonset Hut Foundations, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada [3 Reports Consolidated]

The U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to modernize the town of Mercury at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada, to meet current and future National Weapons Science, Global and Homeland Security Programs, and Environmental Management mission requirements. These plans—including anticipated demolitions, consolidations, and rebuilding at Mercury—are considered an undertaking subject to review under Title 54 U.S.C. § 306108, commonly known as Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, Title 54 U.S.C. § 300101, et seq., and its implementing regulations, 36 C.F.R. Part 800. Desert Research Institute (DRI) completed an architectural survey of Mercury in 2017. This effort resulted in the identification, recording, and evaluation of the Mercury Historic District, as well as the identification of its contributing components. This district was recommended eligible to the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP or National Register) under Criteria A and C, but was unevaluated under Criteria B and D at that time. The Mercury Historic District contains 153 individual landscapes, buildings, and structures. Of these resources, DRI recommends all except one as contributing elements of the historic district during its period of significance corresponding to nuclear testing from 1951 through 1992. During most of the Cold War, the land now called the NNSS was referred to as the Nevada Test Site (NTS). This report evaluates resources dating to the 1950s and 1960s between Jangle and Knothole Streets and south of Ranger Avenue in Mercury prior to the proposed demolition of all resources in that area between Sandstone and Greenhouse Avenues as a phase of the larger modernization program mentioned above. Although the Mercury Historic District as a whole is eligible to the National Register, further evaluation of these properties, as detailed in this report, indicates that none are individually eligible under any of the Secretary of Interior’s Significance Criteria, either at the national or local level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved robustness of sequentially deposited potassium cesium antimonide photocathodes achieved by increasing the potassium content towards theoretical stoichiometry

Alkali antimonide semiconductor photocathodes are promising candidates for high-brightness electron sources for advanced accelerators, including free-electron lasers (FEL), due to their high quantum efficiency (QE), low emittance, and high temporal resolution. Two challenges with these photocathodes are (1) the lack of a universal deposition recipe to achieve crystal stoichiometries and (2) their high susceptibility to vacuum contamination, which restricts their operation pressure to ultrahigh vacuums and leads to a short lifetime and low extraction charge. To resolve these issues, it is essential to understand the elemental compositions of deposited photocathodes and correlate them to robustness. Here, we report depth profiles for potassium cesium antimonide photocathodes, which were investigated using synchrotron radiation x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and the robustness of those photocathodes. We prepared two types of photocathodes with different potassium contents via sequential thermal evaporation. Depth profiles revealed that the photocathodes with a potassium deficit had excess cesium at the surface, while the ratio of potassium and cesium to antimony decreased rapidly within the film. In contrast, the photocathodes with sufficient potassium had close to the theoretical stoichiometry of K 2 CsSb at the surface and maintained that stoichiometry for over half the entire film thickness. Both photocathode types had a similar maximum QE at 532 nm; however, exposure to oxygen revealed that the photocathode with a crystalline stoichiometry of K 2 CsSb maintained QE at one order of magnitude higher pressure compared to its potassium-deficit counterpart. These results highlight the importance of synthesizing potassium cesium antimonide photocathodes with sufficient potassium to achieve the theoretical crystalline stoichiometry for both high QE and improved robustness.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solving key challenges in collider physics with foundation models

Foundation models are neural networks that are capable of simultaneously solving many problems. Large language foundation models like ChatGPT have revolutionized many aspects of daily life, but their impact for science is not yet clear. In this paper, we use a new foundation model for hadronic jets to solve three key challenges in collider physics. In particular, we show how experiments can (1) save significant computing power when developing reconstruction algorithms, (2) perform a complete uncertainty quantification for high-dimensional measurements, and (3) search for new physics with model agnostic methods using low-level inputs. In each case, there are significant computational or methodological challenges with current methods that limit the science potential of deep learning algorithms. By solving each problem, we take jet foundation models beyond proof-of-principle studies and into the toolkit of practitioners.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗