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DOE OSTI2023

Power market models for the clean energy transition: State of the art and future research needs

As power systems around the world are rapidly evolving to achieve decarbonization objectives, it is crucial that power system planners and operators use appropriate models and tools to analyze and address the associated challenges. This paper provides a detailed overview of the properties of power market models in the context of the clean energy transition. We review common power market model methodologies, their readiness for low- and zero-carbon grids, and new power market trends. Based on the review, we suggest model improvements and new designs to increase modeling capabilities for future grids. The paper highlights key modeling concepts related to power system flexibility, with a particular focus on hydropower and energy storage, as well as the representation of grid services, price formation, temporal structure, and the importance of uncertainty. We find that a changing resource mix, market restructuring, and growing price uncertainty require more precise modeling techniques to adequately capture the new technology constraints and the dynamics of future power markets. In particular, models must adequately represent resource opportunity costs, multi-horizon flexibility, and energy storage capabilities across the full range of grid services. Moreover, at the system level, it is increasingly important to consider sub-hourly time resolution, enhanced uncertainty representation, and introduce co-optimization for dual market clearing of energy and grid services. Likewise, models should capture interdependencies between multiple energy carriers and demand sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Building thermal dynamics modeling with deep transfer learning using a large residential smart thermostat dataset

Understanding thermal dynamics and obtaining the computational model of residential buildings enable its scaled application in energy retrofits, control optimization and decarbonization. In this paper, we present a deep learning approach to model building thermal dynamics with smart thermostat data collected from residential buildings, with the goal to investigate model generalizability. In the first stage, we developed and compared different Deep Learning architectures including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models and CNN-LSTM to predict indoor air temperature in a multi-step time horizon. In the second stage, we implemented a Transfer Learning (TL) process, which aims to improve the prediction performance on a new set of buildings (targets), exploiting the knowledge of related or similar buildings (sources). Different TL strategies and source model identification methods were investigated. The study showed that the CNN-LSTM performed the best among the architectures compared, with an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.26 °C for one-hour-ahead (twelve 5-min future steps) predictions. Furthermore, the results showed that freezing the LSTM layer and fine-tuning the other layers of the CNN-LSTM achieved the best performance among four TL strategies, which further improved the performance with respect to a machine learning approach by 10%, and proving the effectiveness and generalizability of the proposed approach. A comparison of three different source model identification methods showed that randomly selecting source models constrained by similar building characteristics can provide good TL performance while retaining simplicity comparing with other quantitative source identification methods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Horizon-scale variability of M87* from 2017–2021 EHT observations

Here, we report three epochs of polarized images of M87* at 230 GHz using data from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) taken in 2017, 2018, and 2021. The baseline coverage of the 2021 observations is significantly improved through the addition of two new EHT stations: the 12 m Kitt Peak Telescope and the Northern Extended Millimetre Array (NOEMA). All observations result in images dominated by a bright, asymmetric ring with a persistent diameter of 43.9 ± 0.6 µas, consistent with expectations for lensed synchrotron emission encircling the apparent shadow of a supermassive black hole. We find that the total intensity and linear polarization of M87* vary significantly across the three epochs. Specifically, the azimuthal brightness distribution of the total intensity images varies from year to year, as expected for a stochastic accretion flow. However, despite a gamma-ray flare erupting in M87 quasi-contemporaneously to the 2018 observations, the 2018 and 2021 images look remarkably similar. The resolved linear polarization fractions in 2018 and 2021 peak at ∼5%, compared to ∼15% in 2017. The spiral polarization pattern on the ring also varies from year to year, including a change in the electric vector position angle helicity in 2021 that could reflect changes in the magnetized accretion flow or an external Faraday screen. The improved 2021 coverage also provides the first EHT constraints on jet emission outside the ring, on scales of ≲ 1 mas. Overall, these observations provide strong proof of the reliability of the EHT images and probe the dynamic properties of the horizon-scale accretion flow surrounding M87*.

accretion, accretion disks↗

DOE OSTI2024

Novel, active, and uncultured hydrocarbon-degrading microbes in the ocean

ABSTRACT Given the vast quantity of oil and gas input to the marine environment annually, hydrocarbon degradation by marine microorganisms is an essential ecosystem service. Linkages between taxonomy and hydrocarbon degradation capabilities are largely based on cultivation studies, leaving a knowledge gap regarding the intrinsic ability of uncultured marine microbes to degrade hydrocarbons. To address this knowledge gap, metagenomic sequence data from the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill deep-sea plume was assembled to which metagenomic and metatranscriptomic reads were mapped. Assembly and binning produced new DWH metagenome-assembled genomes that were evaluated along with their close relatives, all of which are from the marine environment (38 total). These analyses revealed globally distributed hydrocarbon-degrading microbes with clade-specific substrate degradation potentials that have not been reported previously. For example, methane oxidation capabilities were identified in all Cycloclasticus . Furthermore, all Bermanella encoded and expressed genes for non-gaseous n -alkane degradation; however, DWH Bermanella encoded alkane hydroxylase, not alkane 1-monooxygenase. All but one previously unrecognized DWH plume member in the SAR324 and UBA11654 have the capacity for aromatic hydrocarbon degradation. In contrast, Colwellia were diverse in the hydrocarbon substrates they could degrade. All clades encoded nutrient acquisition strategies and response to cold temperatures, while sensory and acquisition capabilities were clade specific. These novel insights regarding hydrocarbon degradation by uncultured planktonic microbes provides missing data, allowing for better prediction of the fate of oil and gas when hydrocarbons are input to the ocean, leading to a greater understanding of the ecological consequences to the marine environment. IMPORTANCE Microbial degradation of hydrocarbons is a critically important process promoting ecosystem health, yet much of what is known about this process is based on physiological experiments with a few hydrocarbon substrates and cultured microbes. Thus, the ability to degrade the diversity of hydrocarbons that comprise oil and gas by microbes in the environment, particularly in the ocean, is not well characterized. Therefore, this study aimed to utilize non-cultivation-based ‘omics data to explore novel genomes of uncultured marine microbes involved in degradation of oil and gas. Analyses of newly assembled metagenomic data and previously existing genomes from other marine data sets, with metagenomic and metatranscriptomic read recruitment, revealed globally distributed hydrocarbon-degrading marine microbes with clade-specific substrate degradation potentials that have not been previously reported. This new understanding of oil and gas degradation by uncultured marine microbes suggested that the global ocean harbors a diversity of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria, which can act as primary agents regulating ecosystem health.

Howe, Kathryn L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Superhorizon isocurvature fluctuations relax tensions

Here, we present a new class of models that have potential to alleviate tensions present in the cosmological data today. We postulate about variation in the sound horizon scale on superhorizon scales, i.e., on scales that are larger than that of the present observable low-redshift Universe (≳ 1Gpc) while at the same time smaller than the largest scales probed by the cosmic microwave background (CMB) (≲ 10Gpc). In this scenario, CMB peaks are naturally smoothed as preferred by the Planck data, while at the same time the low-redshift baryon acoustic oscillation calibration is partially decoupled from the CMB. Taking superhorizon variations in baryon fraction as an example and using approximate modeling, we find improvement in the best fit Planck power spectrum model Δχ 2 ~ 6 for 1 extra degree of freedom with the relevant extension parameter 10 3 σ b = 2.10 ± 0.60, implying about 10% variations in baryon fraction across the Universe. At the same time, S 8 drops by about 1 sigma, easing tension with weak lensing surveys. We find that the combination of Planck 2018 data, eBOSS BAO data, and Riess et al. distance ladder Hubble parameter determination produce a satisfactory fit in our model if we allow for a phantom dark energy equation of state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fixed lines in four fermion models in two dimensions

Motivated by conjectures about near-horizon dynamics in quantum gravity, we search for lines of perturbatively accessible fixed points emanating from models of N free fermions. Through two loops we find a new class of models, apart from the well-known Abelian Thirring models. Further study is needed to see whether these can lead to true conformal manifolds, or perhaps a new class of large- N fixed points. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resolving black-hole microstructure with new momentum carriers

All known horizonless black-hole microstate geometries correspond to brane sources that acquire a finite size, and hence break the spherical symmetry of the black hole. We construct, for the first time, solutions with zero horizon area that have the same charges as a three-charge F1-NS5-P Type-IIA black hole and preserve this spherical symmetry. The momentum of these solutions is carried by longitudinal D0-D4 density fluctuations inside the NS5-branes. We argue that these solutions should be interpreted as the long-throat limit of a family of smooth, horizonless microstate geometries, called superstrata, where such geometries degenerate. The existence of these geometries indicates that a finite-size horizon does not appear even in the singular corners of the moduli space of three-charge microstate geometries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Constraints on prerecombination early dark energy

The early dark energy (EDE) scenario aims to increase the value of the Hubble constant (H0) inferred from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data over that found in the standard cosmological model (Λ CDM ), via the introduction of a new form of energy density in the early Universe. The EDE component briefly accelerates cosmic expansion just prior to recombination, which reduces the physical size of the sound horizon imprinted in the CMB. Previous work has found that nonzero EDE is not preferred by Planck CMB power spectrum data alone, which yield a 95% confidence level (C.L.) upper limit f EDE < 0.087 on the maximal fractional contribution of the EDE field to the cosmic energy budget. In this paper, we fit the EDE model to CMB data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data release 4. We find that a combination of ACT, large-scale Planck TT (similar to WMAP), Planck CMB lensing, and BAO data prefers the existence of EDE at >99.7 % C .L . : f EDE = 0.091$^{+0.020}_{-0.036}$, with H 0 = 70.9$^{+1.0}_{-2.0}$ km/s/Mpc (both 68% C.L.). From a model-selection standpoint, we find that EDE is favored over Λ CDM by these data at roughly 3 σ significance. In contrast, a joint analysis of the full Planck and ACT data yields no evidence for EDE, as previously found for Planck alone. We show that the preference for EDE in ACT alone is driven by its TE and EE power spectrum data. The tight constraint on EDE from Planck alone is driven by its high-ℓ TT power spectrum data. Understanding whether these differing constraints are physical in nature, due to systematics, or simply a rare statistical fluctuation is of high priority. Here, the best-fit EDE models to ACT and Planck exhibit coherent differences across a wide range of multipoles in TE and EE, indicating that a powerful test of this scenario is anticipated with near-future data from ACT and other ground-based experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gravitational Test beyond the First Post-Newtonian Order with the Shadow of the M87 Black Hole

In this study, the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of the central source in M87 have led to the first measurement of the size of a black-hole shadow. This observation offers a new and clean gravitational test of the black-hole metric in the strong-field regime. We show analytically that spacetimes that deviate from the Kerr metric but satisfy weak-field tests can lead to large deviations in the predicted black-hole shadows that are inconsistent with even the current EHT measurements. We use numerical calculations of regular, parametric, non-Kerr metrics to identify the common characteristic among these different parametrizations that control the predicted shadow size. We show that the shadow-size measurements place significant constraints on deviation parameters that control the second post-Newtonian and higher orders of each metric and are, therefore, inaccessible to weak-field tests. The new constraints are complementary to those imposed by observations of gravitational waves from stellar-mass sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Change Detection Applications in the Earth Sciences Using UAS-Based Sensing: A Review and Future Opportunities

Over the past decade, advancements in collection platforms such as unoccupied aerial systems (UAS), survey-grade GNSS, sensor packages, processing software, and spatial analytical tools have facilitated change detection analyses at an unprecedented resolution over broader spatial and temporal extents and in environments where such investigations present challenges. These technological improvements, coupled with the accessibility and versatility of UAS technology, have pushed the boundaries of spatial and temporal scales in geomorphic change detection. As a result, the cm-scale analysis of topographic signatures can detect and quantify surface anomalies during geomorphic evolution. This review focuses on the use of UAS photogrammetry for fine spatial (cm) and temporal (hours to days) scale geomorphic analyses, and it highlights analytical approaches to detect and quantify surface processes that were previously elusive. The review provides insight into topographic change characterization with precise spatial validations applied to landscape processes in various fields, such as the cryosphere and geosphere, as well as anthropogenic earth processes and national security applications. This work sheds light on previously unexplored aspects of both natural and human-engineered environments, demonstrating the potential of UAS observations in change detection. Our discussion examines the emerging horizons of UAS-based change detection, including machine learning and LIDAR systems. In addition, our meta-analysis of spatial and temporal UAS-based observations highlights the new fine-scale niche of UAS-photogrammetry. This scale advancement sets a new frontier in change detection, offering exciting possibilities for the future of land surface analysis and environmental monitoring in the field of Earth Science.

Andresen, Christian G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress on Cosmological Magnetic Fields

A variety of observations impose upper limits at the nano Gauss level on magnetic fields that are coherent on inter-galactic scales while blazar observations indicate a lower bound $\sim 10^{-16}$ Gauss. Such magnetic fields can play an important astrophysical role, for example at cosmic recombination and during structure formation, and also provide crucial information for particle physics in the early universe. Magnetic fields with significant energy density could have been produced at the electroweak phase transition. The evolution and survival of magnetic fields produced on sub-horizon scales in the early universe, however, depends on the magnetic helicity which is related to violation of symmetries in fundamental particle interactions. In conclusion, the generation of magnetic helicity requires new CP violating interactions that can be tested by accelerator experiments via decay channels of the Higgs particle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Brane-jet instabilities

With one exception, all known non-supersymmetric AdS 4 and AdS 5 vacua of gauged maximal supergravities that descend from string and M theory have been shown to have modes with mass below the BF bound. The remaining non-supersymmetric AdS solution is perturbatively stable within gauged maximal supergravity, and hence appears to contradict recent conjectures about the AdS stability based on the weak gravity conjecture. We show that this solution is actually unstable by exhibiting a new decay channel, which is only visible when the solution is uplifted to eleven dimensions. In particular, M2 brane probes at generic locations inside the internal manifold are attracted to the Poincaré horizon, only to be expelled as “brane jets” along certain directions of the internal manifold. Such instabilities can arise in any non-supersymmetric AdS vacuum in any dimension. When a brane-jet instability is present, the force that expels the branes is the same as the force felt by a probe brane whose mass is less than its charge.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Living on the edge: a non-perturbative resolution to the negativity of bulk entropies

Lin, Maldacena, Rozenberg, and Shan (LMRS) presented a new information paradox in black hole physics by noticing that the entanglement and Rényi entropies in a two-sided black hole can become negative when the geometry contains a very large number of matter excitations behind the black hole horizon. While originally this puzzle was presented in the context of BPS two-sided black holes in two-dimensional supergravity, the negativity in fact persists for more general two-sided black holes in the presence of a large number of matter excitations. Since the entanglement and Rényi entropies in ordinary quantum systems cannot be negative, resolving this puzzle is a necessary step towards understanding the quantum mechanical description of black holes. In this paper, we explain how to address the entanglement negativity puzzle, both in the original setting discussed by LMRS and in more general non-supersymmetric settings, by summing over all non-perturbative contributions to the gravitational path integral. We then interpret this result from the point of view of a dual matrix integral, which we use to extend our analysis beyond the regime of validity of the genus re-summation performed in the gravitational path integral. In this regime, positivity is rescued by new saddles of the matrix integral, a one-eigenvalue instanton and a two-eigenvalue instanton. Finally, we formulate a similar puzzle and its resolution using random tensor network techniques.

2D Gravity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Living on the edge: a non-perturbative resolution to the negativity of bulk entropies

FOS: Physical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Concordance cosmology?

ABSTRACT We propose a new intuitive metric for evaluating the tension between two experiments, and apply it to several data sets. While our metric is non-optimal, if evidence of tension is detected, this evidence is robust and easy to interpret. Assuming a flat Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model, we find that there is a modest 2.2σ tension between the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 results and the Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background. This tension is driven by the difference between the amount of structure observed in the late-time Universe and that predicted from fitting the Planck data, and appears to be unrelated to the tension between Planck and local estimates of the Hubble rate. In particular, combining DES, baryon acoustic oscillations, big bang nucleosynthesis, and supernovae measurements recover a Hubble constant and sound horizon consistent with Planck, and in tension with local distance–ladder measurements. If the tension between these various data sets persists, it is likely that reconciling all current data will require breaking the flat ΛCDM model in at least two different ways: one involving new physics in the early Universe, and one involving new late-time Universe physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Path Forward: Materials Data Modernization for ASME Codes and Standards in the Artificial Intelligence Era

Development of the ASME Materials Properties Database was initiated in the early 2010s to support the ASME Codes and Standards. As information technologies advance at an accelerated pace with the artificial intelligence era on the horizon, the ASME Materials Properties Database must be further modernized from a database to a knowledgebase to ride the wave of digital information revolution and effectively support the ASME Codes and Standards in the new era. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the ASME Materials Properties Database and discuss a roadmap for its future development to facilitate understanding of and participation from different sectors of the Codes and Standards community. Further, it first reviews the basic concepts of data, information, knowledge, database, and database system as well as the pros and cons in different types of data management and then discusses the path forward for a desired evolution of the database into a self-explanatory and machine-readable knowledgebase that is consistent with human cognitive processes for the Codes and Standards development and, furthermore, provides resources for data processing and analysis to reach an eventual goal of streamlining the Codes and Standards development from the initial inquiry, throughout data submission, analysis, …, to Codes and Standards rule establishment for final publication.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗