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Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Integration, Evaluation and Transition

NASA's Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) research activity is assessing the use of surface trajectory-based takeoff (OFF) time estimates for en route domain departure scheduling in Call For Release situations. Current aircraft departure release times computed by an Air Traffic Management decision support tool to meet Call For Release constraints are based on coarse estimates of aircraft OFF times. Uncertainty in OFF time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into an overhead stream and lost throughput. However, technology exists to improve OFF time estimates by using more accurate aircraft trajectory predictions available in NextGen airport surface management decision support tools. PDRC findings are expected to be broadly applicable to NextGen integrated arrival/departure/surface implementations. For concept development and evaluation purposes this research activity integrates NASA's Surface Management System (SMS) OFF time prediction capabilities with Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) departure scheduling functions. PDRC field evaluations are being conducted at the North Texas (NTX) Research Station. The NASA/FAA Integrated Arrival/Departure/Surface Research Transition Team is using PDRC as a pathfinder for developing technology transfer mechanisms and procedures.

Engelland, Shawn A.↗

A Human Factors Approach to Bridging Systems and Introducing New Technologies

The application of human factors in aviation has grown to cover a wide range of disciplines and methods capable of assessing human-systems integration at many levels. For example, at the individual level, pilot workload may be studied while at the team level, coordinated workload distribution may be the focal point. At the organizational level, the way in which individuals and teams are supported by training and standards, policies and procedures may introduce additional, relevant topics. A consideration of human factors at each level contributes to our understanding of successes and failures in pilot performance, but this system focused on the flight deck alone -- is only one part of the airspace system. In the FAA's NextGen plan to overhaul the National Airspace System (NAS), new capabilities will enhance flightdeck systems (pilots), flight operations centers (dispatchers) and air traffic control systems (controllers and air traffic managers). At a minimum, the current roles and responsibilities of these three systems are likely to change. Since increased automation will be central to many of the enhancements, the role of automation is also likely to change. Using NextGen examples, a human factors approach for bridging complex airspace systems will be the main focus of this presentation. It is still crucial to consider the human factors within each system, but the successful implementation of new technologies in the NAS requires an understanding of the collaborations that occur when these systems intersect. This human factors approach to studying collaborative systems begins with detailed task descriptions within each system to establish a baseline of the current operations. The collaborative content and context are delineated through the review of regulatory and advisory materials, letters of agreement, policies, procedures and documented practices. Field observations and interviews also help to fill out the picture. Key collaborative functions across systems are identified and placed on a phase-of-flight timeline including information requirements, decision authority and use of automation, as well as level of frequency and criticality.

Kanki, Barbara G.↗

Trajectory Assessment and Modification Tools for Next Generation Air Traffic Management Operations

This paper reviews three Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) based high fidelity air traffic control human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations, with a focus on the expected requirement of enhanced automated trajectory assessment and modification tools to support future air traffic flow management (ATFM) planning positions. The simulations were conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Centers Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) in 2009 and 2010. The test airspace for all three simulations assumed the mid-term NextGenEn-Route high altitude environment utilizing high altitude sectors from the Kansas City and Memphis Air Route Traffic Control Centers. Trajectory assessment, modification and coordination decision support tools were developed at the AOL in order to perform future ATFM tasks. Overall tool usage results and user acceptability ratings were collected across three areas of NextGen operatoins to evaluate the tools. In addition to the usefulness and usability feedback, feasibility issues, benefits, and future requirements were also addressed. Overall, the tool sets were rated very useful and usable, and many elements of the tools received high scores and were used frequently and successfully. Tool utilization results in all three HITLs showed both user and system benefits including better airspace throughput, reduced controller workload, and highly effective communication protocols in both full Data Comm and mixed-equipage environments.

Brasil, Connie↗

NASA GRC UAS Project: Communications Modeling and Simulation Status

The integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace represents new operational concepts required in civil aviation. These new concepts are evolving as the nation moves toward the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under the leadership of the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), and through ongoing work by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The desire and ability to fly UAS in the National Air Space (NAS) in the near term has increased dramatically, and this multi-agency effort to develop and implement a national plan to successfully address the challenges of UAS access to the NAS in a safe and timely manner is well underway. As part of the effort to integrate UAS in the National Airspace, NASA Glenn Research Center is currently involved with providing research into Communications systems and Communication system operations in order to assist with developing requirements for this implementation. In order to provide data and information regarding communication systems performance that will be necessary, NASA GRC is tasked with developing and executing plans for simulations of candidate future UAS command and control communications, in line with architectures and communications technologies being developed and/or proposed by NASA and relevant aviation organizations (in particular, RTCA SC-203). The simulations and related analyses will provide insight into the ability of proposed communications technologies and system architectures to enable safe operation of UAS, meeting UAS in the NAS project goals (including performance requirements, scalability, and interoperability), and ultimately leading to a determination of the ability of NextGen communication systems to accommodate UAS. This presentation, compiled by the NASA GRC team, will provide a view of the overall planned simulation effort and objectives, a description of the simulation concept and status of the design and development that has occurred to date.

Kubat, Greg↗

Pilot and Controller Evaluations of Separation Function Allocation in Air Traffic Management

Two human-in-the-loop simulation experiments were conducted in coordinated fashion to investigate the allocation of separation assurance functions between ground and air and between humans and automation. The experiments modeled a mixed-operations concept in which aircraft receiving ground-based separation services shared the airspace with aircraft providing their own separation service (i.e., self-separation). Ground-based separation was provided by air traffic controllers without automation tools, with tools, or by ground-based automation with controllers in a managing role. Airborne self-separation was provided by airline pilots using self-separation automation enabled by airborne surveillance technology. The two experiments, one pilot-focused and the other controller-focused, addressed selected key issues of mixed operations, assuming the starting point of current-day operations and modeling an emergence of NextGen technologies and procedures. In the controller-focused experiment, the impact of mixed operations on controller performance was assessed at four stages of NextGen implementation. In the pilot-focused experiment, the limits to which pilots with automation tools could take full responsibility for separation from ground-controlled aircraft were tested. Results indicate that the presence of self-separating aircraft had little impact on the controllers' ability to provide separation services for ground-controlled aircraft. Overall performance was best in the most automated environment in which all aircraft were data communications equipped, ground-based separation was highly automated, and self-separating aircraft had access to trajectory intent information for all aircraft. In this environment, safe, efficient, and highly acceptable operations could be achieved for twice today's peak airspace throughput. In less automated environments, reduced trajectory intent exchange and manual air traffic control limited the safely achievable airspace throughput and negatively impacted the maneuver efficiency of self-separating aircraft through high-density airspace. In a test of scripted conflicts with ground-managed aircraft, flight crews of self-separating aircraft prevented separation loss in all conflicts with detection time greater than one minute. In debrief, pilots indicated a preference for at least five minute's alerting notice and trajectory intent information on all aircraft. When intent information on ground-managed aircraft was available, self-separating aircraft benefited from fewer conflict alerts and fewer required deviations from trajectory-based operations.

Wing, David↗

An overview of the V&V of Flight-Critical Systems effort at NASA

As the US is getting ready for the Next Generation (NextGen) of Air Traffic System, there is a growing concern that the current techniques for verification and validation will not be adequate for the changes to come. The JPDO (in charge of implementing NextGen) has given NASA a mandate to address the problem and it resulted in the formulation of the V&V of Flight-Critical Systems effort. This research effort is divided into four themes: argument-based safety assurance, distributed systems, authority and autonomy, and, software intensive systems. This paper presents an overview of the technologies that will address the problem.

validation↗

Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

Horio, Brant M.↗

Aviation Safety: Modeling and Analyzing Complex Interactions between Humans and Automated Systems

The on-going transformation from the current US Air Traffic System (ATS) to the Next Generation Air Traffic System (NextGen) will force the introduction of new automated systems and most likely will cause automation to migrate from ground to air. This will yield new function allocations between humans and automation and therefore change the roles and responsibilities in the ATS. Yet, safety in NextGen is required to be at least as good as in the current system. We therefore need techniques to evaluate the safety of the interactions between humans and automation. We think that current human factor studies and simulation-based techniques will fall short in front of the ATS complexity, and that we need to add more automated techniques to simulations, such as model checking, which offers exhaustive coverage of the non-deterministic behaviors in nominal and off-nominal scenarios. In this work, we present a verification approach based both on simulations and on model checking for evaluating the roles and responsibilities of humans and automation. Models are created using Brahms (a multi-agent framework) and we show that the traditional Brahms simulations can be integrated with automated exploration techniques based on model checking, thus offering a complete exploration of the behavioral space of the scenario. Our formal analysis supports the notion of beliefs and probabilities to reason about human behavior. We demonstrate the technique with the Ueberligen accident since it exemplifies authority problems when receiving conflicting advices from human and automated systems.

Muti-agent System↗

An Overview of Current Capabilities and Research Activities in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center

The Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA Ames conducts research to provide a better understanding of roles, responsibilities, and requirements for human operators and automation in future air traffic management (ATM) systems. The research encompasses developing, evaluating, and integrating operational concepts and technologies for near-, mid-, and far-term air traffic operations. Current research threads include efficient arrival operations, function allocation in separation assurance and efficient airspace and trajectory management. The AOL has developed powerful air traffic simulation capabilities, most notably the Multi Aircraft Control System (MACS) that is used for many air traffic control simulations at NASA and its partners in government, academia and industry. Several additional NASA technologies have been integrated with the AOL's primary simulation capabilities where appropriate. Using this environment, large and small-scale system-level evaluations can be conducted to help make near-term improvements and transition NASA technologies to the FAA, such as the technologies developed under NASA's Air Traffic Management Demonstration-1 (ATD-1). The AOL's rapid prototyping and flexible simulation capabilities have proven a highly effective environment to progress the initiation of trajectory-based operations and support the mid-term implementation of NextGen. Fundamental questions about accuracy requirements have been investigated as well as realworld problems on how to improve operations in some of the most complex airspaces in the US. This includes using advanced trajectory-based operations and prototype tools for coordinating arrivals to converging runways at Newark airport and coordinating departures and arrivals in the San Francisco and the New York metro areas. Looking beyond NextGen, the AOL has started exploring hybrid human/automation control strategies as well as highly autonomous operations in the air traffic control domain. Initial results indicate improved capacity, low operator workload, good situation awareness and acceptability for controllers teaming with autonomous air traffic systems. While much research and development needs to be conducted to make such concepts a reality, these approaches have the potential to truly transform the airspace system towards increased mobility, safe and efficient growth in global operations and enabling many of the new vehicles and operations that are expected over the next decades. This paper describes how the AOL currently contributes to the ongoing air transportation transformation.

simulation↗

An Investigation of Flight Deck Data Link in the Terminal Area

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) and Europe's Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) concepts require an increased use of trajectory-based operations, including extensive strategic air traffic control clearances. The clearances are lengthy and complex, which necessitate data link communications to allow for message permanence and integration into the autoflight systems (i.e., autoload capability). This paper examines the use of flight deck data link communications for strategic and tactical clearance usage in the terminal area. A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted using a high-fidelity flight deck simulator, with ten commercial flight crews as participants. Data were collected from six flight scenarios in the San Francisco terminal airspace. The variables of interest were ATC message modality (voice v. data link), temporal quality of the message (tactical v. strategic) and message length. Dependent variables were message response times, communication clarifications, communication-related errors, and pilot workload. Response time results were longer in data link compared to voice, a finding that has been consistently revealed in a number of other simulations [1]. In addition, strategic clearances and longer messages resulted in a greater number of clarifications and errors, suggesting an increase in uncertainty of message interpretation for the flight crews when compared to tactical clearances. The implications for strategic and compound clearance usage in NextGen and SESAR are discussed

data link communication↗

A Study of Future Communications Concepts and Technologies for the National Airspace System-Part III

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) is investigating current and anticipated wireless communications concepts and technologies that the National Airspace System (NAS) may need in the next 50 years. NASA has awarded three NASA Research Announcements (NAR) studies with the objective to determine the most promising candidate technologies for air-to-air and air-to-ground data exchange and analyze their suitability in a post-NextGen NAS environment. This paper will present progress made in the studies and describe the communications challenges and opportunities that have been identified as part of the study. NASA's NextGen Concepts and Technology Development (CTD) Project integrates solutions for a safe, efficient and high-capacity airspace system through joint research efforts and partnerships with other government agencies. The CTD Project is one of two within NASA's Airspace Systems Program and is managed by the NASA Ames Research Center. Research within the CTD Project is in support the 2011 NASA Strategic Plan Sub-Goal 4.1: Develop innovative solutions and advanced technologies, through a balanced research portfolio, to improve current and future air transportation. The focus of CTD is on developing capabilities in traffic flow management, dynamic airspace configuration, separation assurance, super density operations and airport surface operations. Important to its research is the development of human/automation information requirements and decisionmaking guidelines for human-human and human-machine airportal decision-making. Airborne separation, oceanic intrail climb/descent and interval management applications depend on location and intent information of surrounding aircraft. ADS-B has been proposed to provide the information exchange, but other candidates such as satellite-based receivers, broadband or airborne internet, and cellular communications are possible candidate's.

Navigation↗

NASA GRC UAS Project - Communications Modeling and Simulation Development Status

The integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace represents new operational concepts required in civil aviation. These new concepts are evolving as the nation moves toward the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under the leadership of the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), and through ongoing work by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The desire and ability to fly UAS in the National Air Space (NAS) in the near term has increased dramatically, and this multi-agency effort to develop and implement a national plan to successfully address the challenges of UAS access to the NAS in a safe and timely manner is well underway. As part of the effort to integrate UAS in the National Airspace, NASA Glenn Research Center is currently involved with providing research into Communications systems and Communication system operations in order to assist with developing requirements for this implementation. In order to provide data and information regarding communication systems performance that will be necessary, NASA GRC is tasked with developing and executing plans for simulations of candidate future UAS command and control communications, in line with architectures and communications technologies being developed and or proposed by NASA and relevant aviation organizations (in particular, RTCA SC-203). The simulations and related analyses will provide insight into the ability of proposed communications technologies and system architectures to enable safe operation of UAS, meeting UAS in the NAS project goals (including performance requirements, scalability, and interoperability), and ultimately leading to a determination of the ability of NextGen communication systems to accommodate UAS. This presentation, compiled by the NASA GRC Modeling and Simulation team, will provide an update to this ongoing effort at NASA GRC as follow-up to the overview of the planned simulation effort presented at ICNS in 2013. The objective of presentation will be to describe the progress made in developing both a NAS-Wide simulation architecture application and the detailed radiocomm system models for this research, and will present interim data and information compiled in the process of developing these simulation capabilities to date.

Modeling and Simulation↗

Air Traffic Management Technology Demostration Phase 1 (ATD) Interval Management for Near-Term Operations Validation of Acceptability (IM-NOVA) Experiment

The Interval Management for Near-term Operations Validation of Acceptability (IM-NOVA) experiment was conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) in support of the NASA Airspace Systems Program's Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-1 (ATD-1). ATD-1 is intended to showcase an integrated set of technologies that provide an efficient arrival solution for managing aircraft using Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) surveillance, navigation, procedures, and automation for both airborne and ground-based systems. The goal of the IMNOVA experiment was to assess if procedures outlined by the ATD-1 Concept of Operations were acceptable to and feasible for use by flight crews in a voice communications environment when used with a minimum set of Flight Deck-based Interval Management (FIM) equipment and a prototype crew interface. To investigate an integrated arrival solution using ground-based air traffic control tools and aircraft Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) tools, the LaRC FIM system and the Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering and Controller Managed Spacing tools developed at the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) were integrated into LaRC's Air Traffic Operations Laboratory (ATOL). Data were collected from 10 crews of current 757/767 pilots asked to fly a high-fidelity, fixed-based simulator during scenarios conducted within an airspace environment modeled on the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Terminal Radar Approach Control area. The aircraft simulator was equipped with the Airborne Spacing for Terminal Area Routes (ASTAR) algorithm and a FIM crew interface consisting of electronic flight bags and ADS-B guidance displays. Researchers used "pseudo-pilot" stations to control 24 simulated aircraft that provided multiple air traffic flows into the DFW International Airport, and recently retired DFW air traffic controllers served as confederate Center, Feeder, Final, and Tower controllers. Analyses of qualitative data revealed that the procedures used by flight crews to receive and execute interval management (IM) clearances in a voice communications environment were logical, easy to follow, did not contain any missing or extraneous steps, and required the use of an acceptable workload level. The majority of the pilot participants found the IM concept, in addition to the proposed FIM crew procedures, to be acceptable and indicated that the ATD-1 procedures could be successfully executed in a nearterm NextGen environment. Analyses of quantitative data revealed that the proposed procedures were feasible for use by flight crews in a voice communications environment. The delivery accuracy at the achieve-by point was within +/-5 sec, and the delivery precision was less than 5 sec. Furthermore, FIM speed commands occurred at a rate of less than one per minute, and pilots found the frequency of the speed commands to be acceptable at all times throughout the experiment scenarios.

Kibler, Jennifer L.↗

Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research: Phase II- Volume III-Truss Braced Wing Aeroelastic Test Report

This Test Report summarizes the Truss Braced Wing (TBW) Aeroelastic Test (Task 3.1) work accomplished by the Boeing Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research (SUGAR) team, which includes the time period of February 2012 through June 2014. The team consisted of Boeing Research and Technology, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Virginia Tech, and NextGen Aeronautics. The model was fabricated by NextGen Aeronautics and designed to meet dynamically scaled requirements from the sized full scale TBW FEM. The test of the dynamically scaled SUGAR TBW half model was broken up into open loop testing in December 2013 and closed loop testing from January 2014 to April 2014. Results showed the flutter mechanism to primarily be a coalescence of 2nd bending mode and 1st torsion mode around 10 Hz, as predicted by analysis. Results also showed significant change in flutter speed as angle of attack was varied. This nonlinear behavior can be explained by including preload and large displacement changes to the structural stiffness and mass matrices in the flutter analysis. Control laws derived from both test system ID and FEM19 state space models were successful in suppressing flutter. The control laws were robust and suppressed flutter for a variety of Mach, dynamic pressures, and angle of attacks investigated.

Bradley, Marty K.↗

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project KDP-C Review

The topics discussed are the UAS-NAS project life-cycle and ARMD thrust flow down, as well as the UAS environments and how we operate in those environments. NASA's Armstrong Flight Research Center at Edwards, CA, is leading a project designed to help integrate unmanned air vehicles into the world around us. The Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the National Airspace System project, or UAS in the NAS, will contribute capabilities designed to reduce technical barriers related to safety and operational challenges associated with enabling routine UAS access to the NAS. The project falls under the Integrated Systems Research Program office managed at NASA Headquarters by the agency's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. NASA's four aeronautics research centers - Armstrong, Ames Research Center, Langley Research Center, and Glenn Research Center - are part of the technology development project. With the use and diversity of unmanned aircraft growing rapidly, new uses for these vehicles are constantly being considered. Unmanned aircraft promise new ways of increasing efficiency, reducing costs, enhancing safety and saving lives 460265main_ED10-0132-16_full.jpg Unmanned aircraft systems such as NASA's Global Hawks (above) and Predator B named Ikhana (below), along with numerous other unmanned aircraft systems large and small, are the prime focus of the UAS in the NAS effort to integrate them into the national airspace. Credits: NASA Photos 710580main_ED07-0243-37_full.jpg The UAS in the NAS project envisions performance-based routine access to all segments of the national airspace for all unmanned aircraft system classes, once all safety-related and technical barriers are overcome. The project will provide critical data to such key stakeholders and customers as the Federal Aviation Administration and RTCA Special Committee 203 (formerly the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics) by conducting integrated, relevant system-level tests to adequately address safety and operational challenges of national airspace access by unmanned aircraft systems, or UAS. In the process, the project will work with other key stakeholders to define necessary deliverables and products to help enable such access. Within the project, NASA is focusing on five sub-projects. These five focus areas include assurance of safe separation of unmanned aircraft from manned aircraft when flying in the national airspace; safety-critical command and control systems and radio frequencies to enable safe operation of UAS; human factors issues for ground control stations; airworthiness certification standards for UAS avionics and integrated tests and evaluation designed to determine the viability of emerging UAS technology. Five Focus Areas of the UAS Integration in the NAS Project Separation Assurance Provide an assessment of how planned Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) separation assurance systems, with different functional allocations, perform for UAS in mixed operations with manned aircraft Assess the applicability to UAS and the performance of NASA NextGen separation assurance systems in flight tests with realistic latencies and uncertain trajectories Assess functional allocations ranging from today's ground-based, controller-provided aircraft separation to fully autonomous airborne self-separation Communications Develop data and rationale to obtain appropriate frequency spectrum allocations to enable safe and efficient operation of UAS in the NAS Develop and validate candidate secure safety-critical command and control system/subsystem test equipment for UAS that complies with UAS international/national frequency regulations, standards and recommended practices and minimum operational and aviation system performance standards for UAS Perform analysis to support recommendations for integration of safety-critical command and control systems and air traffic control communications to ensure safe and efficient operation of UAS in the NAS Human Systems Integration Develop a research test bed and database to provide data and proof of concept for GCS - ground control station - operations in the NAS Coordinate with standards organizations to develop human-factors guidelines for GCS operation in the NAS Certification Define a UAS classification scheme and approach to determining Federal Aviation Regulation airworthiness requirements applicable to all UAS digital avionics Provide hazard and risk-related data to support development of type design criteria and best development practices Integrated Tests and Evaluation Integrate and test mature concepts from technical elements to demonstrate and test viability Evaluate the performance of technology development in a relevant environment (full-mission, human-in-the-loop simulations and flight tests)

outreach↗

Preliminary Investigation of Impact of Technological Impairment on Trajectory-Based Operations

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) incorporates collaborative air traffic management and Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) in order to significantly increase the capacity, efficiency, and predictability of operations in the National Airspace System (NAS), without decreasing safety. This is enabled by airspace users and service providers sharing knowledge about operations that allows prediction of the complete 4D flight trajectory with as little uncertainty as possible. Additionally, new software and hardware technology is critical to reaching NextGen goals, especially with regard to TBO. What if the technologies that are critical for TBO were to be impaired or fail completely? Should there be a malfunction of a piece of the technology, it must be ensured that the whole system does not break down completely or suffer severe impairment. Instead, operations need to be maintained proportionally to the problem and safety needs to be ensured (graceful degradation). This paper proposes a systematic framework to investigate the vulnerability of TBO to technology disruption, and determine the impact of technological impairment on TBO. Two representative technologies are chosen for detailed investigation and the impact of their impairment on the degradation of TBO is illustrated using a weather-related scenario. XXXX There are several possible directions of future work. We believe it is desirable to develop methods to quantitatively assess the impact of technological disruption on TBO and to have the simulation tools to validate the impact. The availability of prognostics and health management methods could be leveraged to predict technological failure/disruption, thus predicting how TBO will be a ected, and possibly pro-actively mitigating the impact. It is important to develop large-scale scenarios where the e ect of technological impairment is prominent, and identify methods to quantitatively assess the extent of TBO degradation. An important goal of such an investigation is the development of failure-resistant resilient trajectory-based oper- ations. Resilience14, 15 is the property of a system to \bounce back" and resume at least a signi cant portion of its functionalities after degradation due to technological impairment(s). A systems resilience includes properties such as \bu ering capacity" (quantifying disruptions the system can absorb or adapt to without a fundamental breakdown in performance or in the systems structure), \ exibility" (ability to restructure itself in response to external changes or pressures), "margin" (how closely the system is currently operating rela- tive to one or another kind of performance boundary), \tolerance" (whether the system gracefully degrades as stress/pressure increase, or collapses quickly when pressure exceeds adaptive capacity), etc. Future work needs to focus on quantifying and improving the resilience of TBO, and identifying resilient design solutions for aviation.

TBO↗

Development of a High-Fidelity Simulation Environment for Shadow-Mode Assessments of Air Traffic Concepts

This paper will describe the purpose, architecture, and implementation of a gate-to-gate, high-fidelity air traffic simulation environment called the Shadow Mode Assessment using Realistic Technologies for the National Airspace System (SMART-NAS) Test Bed.The overarching purpose of the SMART-NAS Test Bed (SNTB) is to conduct high-fidelity, real-time, human-in-the-loop and automation-in-the-loop simulations of current and proposed future air traffic concepts for the Next Generation Air Transportation System of the United States, called NextGen. SNTB is intended to enable simulations that are currently impractical or impossible for three major areas of NextGen research and development: Concepts across multiple operational domains such as the gate-to-gate trajectory-based operations concept; Concepts related to revolutionary operations such as the seamless and widespread integration of large and small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) vehicles throughout U.S. airspace; Real-time system-wide safety assurance technologies to allow safe, increasingly autonomous aviation operations. SNTB is primarily accessed through a web browser. A set of secure support services are provided to simplify all aspects of real-time, human-in-the-loop and automation-in-the-loop simulations from design (i.e., prior to execution) through analysis (i.e., after execution). These services include simulation architecture and asset configuration; scenario generation; command, control and monitoring; and analysis support.

human-in-the-loop↗

Using ADOPT Algorithm and Operational Data to Discover Precursors to Aviation Adverse Events

The US National Airspace System (NAS) is making its transition to the NextGen system and assuring safety is one of the top priorities in NextGen. At present, safety is managed reactively (correct after occurrence of an unsafe event). While this strategy works for current operations, it may soon become ineffective for future airspace designs and high density operations. There is a need for proactive management of safety risks by identifying hidden and "unknown" risks and evaluating the impacts on future operations. To this end, NASA Ames has developed data mining algorithms that finds anomalies and precursors (high-risk states) to safety issues in the NAS. In this paper, we describe a recently developed algorithm called ADOPT that analyzes large volumes of data and automatically identifies precursors from real world data. Precursors help in detecting safety risks early so that the operator can mitigate the risk in time. In addition, precursors also help identify causal factors and help predict the safety incident. The ADOPT algorithm scales well to large data sets and to multidimensional time series, reduce analyst time significantly, quantify multiple safety risks giving a holistic view of safety among other benefits. This paper details the algorithm and includes several case studies to demonstrate its application to discover the "known" and "unknown" safety precursors in aviation operation.

aviation safet↗