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At least 145 records · Page 8

Territory and Population Attributes Affect Florida Scrub-Jay Fecundity in Fire Adapted Ecosystems

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications. Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida’s Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing “strong” quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity. Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Long-term studies↗

Genome-wide Selective Sweeps in Natural Bacterial Populations Revealed by Time-series Metagenomics

Multiple evolutionary models have been proposed to explain the formation of genetically and ecologically distinct bacterial groups. Time-series metagenomics enables direct observation of evolutionary processes in natural populations, and if applied over a sufficiently long time frame, this approach could capture events such as gene-specific or genome-wide selective sweeps. Direct observations of either process could help resolve how distinct groups form in natural microbial assemblages. Here, from a three-year metagenomic study of a freshwater lake, we explore changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies and patterns of gene gain and loss in populations of Chlorobiaceae and Methylophilaceae. SNP analyses revealed substantial genetic heterogeneity within these populations, although the degree of heterogeneity varied considerably among closely related, co-occurring Methylophilaceae populations. SNP allele frequencies, as well as the relative abundance of certain genes, changed dramatically over time in each population. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in one of the Chlorobiaceae populations over the course of three years, while at the same time multiple genes either swept through or were swept from this population. These patterns were consistent with a genome-wide selective sweep, a process predicted by the ‘ecotype model’ of diversification, but not previously observed in natural populations.

Chan, Leong-Keat↗

Genome-wide Selective Sweeps in Natural Bacterial Populations Revealed by Time-series Metagenomics

Multiple evolutionary models have been proposed to explain the formation of genetically and ecologically distinct bacterial groups. Time-series metagenomics enables direct observation of evolutionary processes in natural populations, and if applied over a sufficiently long time frame, this approach could capture events such as gene-specific or genome-wide selective sweeps. Direct observations of either process could help resolve how distinct groups form in natural microbial assemblages. Here, from a three-year metagenomic study of a freshwater lake, we explore changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies and patterns of gene gain and loss in populations of Chlorobiaceae and Methylophilaceae. SNP analyses revealed substantial genetic heterogeneity within these populations, although the degree of heterogeneity varied considerably among closely related, co-occurring Methylophilaceae populations. SNP allele frequencies, as well as the relative abundance of certain genes, changed dramatically over time in each population. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in one of the Chlorobiaceae populations over the course of three years, while at the same time multiple genes either swept through or were swept from this population. These patterns were consistent with a genome-wide selective sweep, a process predicted by the ecotype model? of diversification, but not previously observed in natural populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Acoustic and Genetic Data Can Reduce Uncertainty Regarding Populations of Migratory Tree-Roosting Bats Impacted by Wind Energy

Wind turbine-related mortality may pose a population-level threat for migratory tree-roosting bats, such as the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) in North America. These species are dispersed within their range, making it impractical to estimate census populations size using traditional survey methods. Nonetheless, understanding population size and trends is essential for evaluating and mitigating risk from wind turbine mortality. Using various sampling techniques, including systematic acoustic sampling and genetic analyses, we argue that building a weight of evidence regarding bat population status and trends is possible to (1) assess the sustainability of mortality associated with wind turbines; (2) determine the level of mitigation required; and (3) evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures to ensure population viability for these species. Long-term, systematic data collection remains the most viable option for reducing uncertainty regarding population trends for migratory tree-roosting bats. We recommend collecting acoustic data using the statistically robust North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) protocols and that genetic diversity is monitored at repeated time intervals to show species trends. There are no short-term actions to resolve these population-level questions; however, we discuss opportunities for relatively short-term investments that will lead to long-term success in reducing uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Altered spring phenology of North American freshwater turtles and the importance of representative populations

Abstract Globally, populations of diverse taxa have altered phenology in response to climate change. However, most research has focused on a single population of a given taxon, which may be unrepresentative for comparative analyses, and few long‐term studies of phenology in ectothermic amniotes have been published. We test for climate‐altered phenology using long‐term studies (10–36 years) of nesting behavior in 14 populations representing six genera of freshwater turtles ( Chelydra , Chrysemys , Kinosternon , Malaclemys , Sternotherus , and Trachemys ). Nesting season initiation occurs earlier in more recent years, with 11 of the populations advancing phenology. The onset of nesting for nearly all populations correlated well with temperatures during the month preceding nesting. Still, certain populations of some species have not advanced phenology as might be expected from global patterns of climate change. This collection of findings suggests a proximate link between local climate and reproduction that is potentially caused by variation in spring emergence from hibernation, ability to process food, and thermoregulatory opportunities prior to nesting. However, even though all species had populations with at least some evidence of phenological advancement, geographic variation in phenology within and among turtle species underscores the critical importance of representative data for accurate comprehensive assessments of the biotic impacts of climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. Here, we overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Finally, our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Survival of Immature Gopher Tortoises Recruited into a Translocated Population

Population manipulations such as translocation and head-starting are increasingly used as recovery tools for chelonians. However, evaluating success of individual projects can require decades of monitoring to detect population trends in these long-lived species. Furthermore, there are often few benchmarks from stable, unmanipulated populations against which to compare demographic rates, particularly for the immature stages. Here, we used 8 years of mark-recapture data to estimate apparent survival of immature gopher tortoises recruited into an introduced population of gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) first established on St. Catherines Island, Georgia, USA in 1987. During 2006 29 -2013, we conducted targeted trapping of immature gopher tortoises and compared survival of the hatchling, juvenile and subadult stages among treatments: 1) individuals released shortly after hatching from eggs obtained from gravid female founders (‘direct releases’); 2) individuals reared in captivity for 6-9 months following hatching (‘head-starts’); and 3) individuals first encountered as free-ranging, wild-recruited offspring (‘wild recruits’). Among the candidate models we examined, the best fit model included additive effects of tortoise stage and treatment, however, overlapping 95% credible intervals among treatments (CI) suggested that survival did not vary significantly among treatments. Annual apparent survival increased over the immature period, highlighting the importance of calculating separate estimates for the different immature stages. Across all treatments, the additive model estimated annual apparent survival probability to be 0.37 (CI: 0.25 40 – 0.48) for hatchlings, 0.71 (CI: 0.61 – 0.81) for juveniles, and 0.83 (CI: 0.74 – 0.94) for subadults. Our study, in combination with previous monitoring efforts at St. Catherines Island, provides strong evidence that the translocation and subsequent population augmentation efforts have been successful in establishing a robust population of gopher tortoises. Additionally, our results provide estimates of demographic rates for life stages that are poorly understood but critical to understanding population dynamics of this imperiled species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

LandScan HD: a high-resolution gridded ambient population methodology for the world

Unwarned population distributions accounting for routine human activities are needed to address many global human security challenges, including disasters, conflict, and infrastructure demand. LandScan High Definition (LSHD) supports this need through gridded ambient population estimates that measure average human presence between daytime and nighttime at a high spatial resolution of 3 arcseconds (approximately 90 m). Although LSHD has traditionally been produced on a country-specific basis, advances in global foundational data and computational resources now enable scaling its methodology to the world. Combining aspects of top-down and bottom-up gridded population methods, LSHD allocates subnational population totals from authoritative statistics to built-up areas based on occupancy estimates for multiple facility types (e.g., residential, commercial) and then reaggregates these estimates to a global population grid. We scale this approach by organizing the LSHD data stack into a 1° resolution tileset of vector analytic features, enabling an efficient and repeatable workflow for all countries worldwide. Examining the Philippines as an output of the global LSHD baseline dataset, we contrast unwarned and residential (WorldPop) population distributions by (1) exploring a practical application of flood risk assessment and (2) evaluating their congruence with outcomes of collective human activities (subnational CO 2 emissions). Finally, we discuss plans to address current LSHD limitations through data/modeling and uncertainty quantification improvements and provide outlook for workflow automation and extending the model to social, demographic and economic population characteristics.

Building morphology↗

New insights into the nonadiabatic state population dynamics of model proton-coupled electron transfer reactions from the mixed quantum-classical Liouville approach

In a previous study [F. A. Shakib and G. Hanna, J. Chem. Phys. 141, 044122 (2014)], we investigated a model proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reaction via the mixed quantum-classical Liouville (MQCL) approach and found that the trajectories spend the majority of their time on the mean of two coherently coupled adiabatic potential energy surfaces. This suggested a need for mean surface evolution to accurately simulate observables related to ultrafast PCET processes. In this study, we simulate the time-dependent populations of the three lowest adiabatic states in the ET-PT (i.e., electron transfer preceding proton transfer) version of the same PCET model via the MQCL approach and compare them to the exact quantum results and those obtained via the fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) approach. We find that the MQCL population profiles are in good agreement with the exact quantum results and show a significant improvement over the FSSH results. All of the mean surfaces are shown to play a direct role in the dynamics of the state populations. Interestingly, our results indicate that the population transfer to the second-excited state can be mediated by dynamics on the mean of the ground and second-excited state surfaces, as part of a sequence of nonadiabatic transitions that bypasses the first-excited state surface altogether. This is made possible through nonadiabatic transitions between different mean surfaces, which is the manifestation of coherence transfer in MQCL dynamics. We also investigate the effect of the strength of the coupling between the proton/electron and the solvent coordinate on the state population dynamics. Drastic changes in the population dynamics are observed, which can be understood in terms of the changes in the potential energy surfaces and the nonadiabatic couplings. Finally, we investigate the state population dynamics in the PT-ET (i.e., proton transfer preceding electron transfer) and concerted versions of the model. The PT-ET results confirm the participation of all of the mean surfaces, albeit in different proportions compared to the ET-PT case, while the concerted results indicate that the mean of the ground- and first-excited state surfaces only plays a role, due to the large energy gaps between the ground- and second-excited state surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bacterial population-level trade-offs between drought tolerance and resource acquisition traits impact decomposition

Microbes drive fundamental ecosystem processes, such as decomposition. Environmental stressors are known to affect microbes, their fitness, and the ecosystem functions that they perform; yet, understanding the causal mechanisms behind this influence has been difficult. We used leaf litter on soil surface as a model in situ system to assess changes in bacterial genomic traits and decomposition rates for 18 months with drought as a stressor. We hypothesized that genome-scale trade-offs due to investment in stress tolerance traits under drought reduce the capacity for bacterial populations to carry out decomposition, and that these population-level trade-offs scale up to impact emergent community traits, thereby reducing decomposition rates. We observed drought tolerance mechanisms that were heightened in bacterial populations under drought, identified as higher gene copy numbers in metagenome-assembled genomes. A subset of populations under drought had reduced carbohydrate-active enzyme genes that suggested—as a trade-off—a decline in decomposition capabilities. These trade-offs were driven by community succession and taxonomic shifts as distinct patterns appeared in populations. We show that trait–trade-offs in bacterial populations under drought could scale up to reduce overall decomposition capabilities and litter decay rates. Using a trait-based approach to assess the population ecology of soil bacteria, we demonstrate genome-level trade-offs in response to drought with consequences for decomposition rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid adaptation (or not) in restored plant populations

Abstract Mismatches between the traits of a colonizing population and a novel habitat can generate strong selection, potentially resulting in rapid adaptation. However, for most colonization events, it can be difficult to detect rapid adaptation or distinguish it from nonadaptive evolutionary changes. Here, I take advantage of a replicated prairie restoration experiment to compare recently established plant populations in two closely located restored prairies to each other and to their shared source population to test for rapid adaptation. Using a reciprocal transplant experiment six years after the populations were established, I found that one restored plant population showed evidence of adaptation, outperforming the other restored population when grown at its home site. In contrast, I detected no evidence for adaptation at the other site. These findings demonstrate that while rapid adaptation can occur in colonizing plant populations, it may not be the rule. Better understanding of when adaptation may or may not occur in these contexts may help us use evolution to our advantage, potentially improving establishment of desirable species in restored habitats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental resource deficit may drive the evolution of intraspecific trait variation in invasive plant populations

Intraspecific trait variation within natural populations (i.e. intra-population trait variation, IPTV) is the basic source for selection and can have significant ecological consequences. Higher IPTV may increase a population's niche breath and benefit interspecies competition under a resource-limited environment, thus affecting the ability of a species to move into novel habitats. However, the reciprocal influences of variation in environmental conditions and phenotypic trait expression in spreading plant populations are not clearly defined. Here, we propose that during invasion, IPTV and its relative change in response to key resource enrichment may increase with the resource deficit of invaded sites, and that this relationship may facilitate plant invasions into resource-limited environments. We analyzed the invasion trend, IPTV and its response to water enrichment, and moisture variability among populations of an annual grass Brachypodium hybridum in California, United States. We incorporated a genotyping-by-sequencing approach, a common garden experiment that had two water level treatments, and public plant and climate databases. Our hypothesis was supported by the observation that for populations that invaded sites with higher spring moisture deficit, both their seed biomass IPTV (for the water-enriched treatment only) and relative change of the IPTV across water treatments were larger when examined in the common garden experiment. A generally north to south spreading direction was found in these B. hybridum populations, towards a drier and warmer climate exhibiting higher moisture deficit for plant growth. Our results suggest a role for interactions between IPTV (rather than trait means) and environmental resource availability in promoting plant invasions, providing new insights into the significance of IPTV in shaping plant geographic distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MetaPop: a pipeline for macro- and microdiversity analyses and visualization of microbial and viral metagenome-derived populations

Abstract Background Microbes and their viruses are hidden engines driving Earth’s ecosystems from the oceans and soils to humans and bioreactors. Though gene marker approaches can now be complemented by genome-resolved studies of inter-(macrodiversity) and intra-(microdiversity) population variation, analytical tools to do so remain scattered or under-developed. Results Here, we introduce MetaPop, an open-source bioinformatic pipeline that provides a single interface to analyze and visualize microbial and viral community metagenomes at both the macro - and microdiversity levels. Macrodiversity estimates include population abundances and α- and β-diversity. Microdiversity calculations include identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms, novel codon-constrained linkage of SNPs, nucleotide diversity ( π and θ ), and selective pressures (pN/pS and Tajima’s D ) within and fixation indices ( F ST ) between populations. MetaPop will also identify genes with distinct codon usage. Following rigorous validation, we applied MetaPop to the gut viromes of autistic children that underwent fecal microbiota transfers and their neurotypical peers. The macrodiversity results confirmed our prior findings for viral populations (microbial shotgun metagenomes were not available) that diversity did not significantly differ between autistic and neurotypical children. However, by also quantifying microdiversity, MetaPop revealed lower average viral nucleotide diversity ( π ) in autistic children. Analysis of the percentage of genomes detected under positive selection was also lower among autistic children, suggesting that higher viral π in neurotypical children may be beneficial because it allows populations to better “bet hedge” in changing environments. Further, comparisons of microdiversity pre- and post-FMT in autistic children revealed that the delivery FMT method (oral versus rectal) may influence viral activity and engraftment of microdiverse viral populations, with children who received their FMT rectally having higher microdiversity post-FMT. Overall, these results show that analyses at the macro level alone can miss important biological differences. Conclusions These findings suggest that standardized population and genetic variation analyses will be invaluable for maximizing biological inference, and MetaPop provides a convenient tool package to explore the dual impact of macro - and microdiversity across microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Population Viability Analysis (PVA) as a Platform for Predicting Outcomes of Management Options for the Florida Scrub-Jay in Brevard County

The Florida scrub-jay (FSJ) is a species in decline because of extinction debt caused by habitat fragmentation and degradation. Understanding and managing the species and its habitats is challenging due to the complex interactions among the social system, a dynamic mosaic of scrub habitat, and active management. To provide insights into the possible fates of the FSJ populations of mainland, cape, and island sections of Brevard County, we modeled the population dynamics using the Vortex population viability analysis (PVA) software. Vortex is an individual-based simulation that allowed us to include such factors as demographic rates dependent on habitat state, impact of helpers on breeding success, and helper to breeder transition probabilities responding to availability of nearby vacant optimal habitat and vacancies due to the death of breeders. Detailed modeling of the FSJ was possible only because a lot of data about the species and its habitats have been gathered over decades of intensive research. We followed a phased approach to constructing population models that incorporated the best available science and data to address a variety of conservation actions. The first phase focused on constructing a model that incorporates sociobiology and source-sink habitat dynamics. This model allowed us to address some of the most important questions about population size and habitat quality. Once the model framework was in place, we considered the real landscapes and actual local populations, rather than just generic representations of typical FSJ dynamics. After examining the viability of the metapopulations under current conditions, we explored the likely consequences of various management actions that might slow or reverse population declines.

Population Viability Analysis↗

Marsh Archive Reveals Human Population History and Future Implications for Estuarine Health in Long Island Sound

Coastal marshes are efficient ecosystems providing a multitude of benefits for invertebrates, birds, fish and humans alike. Yet despite these benefits, wetlands are threatened by anthropogenic inputs such as human wastewater which contain high levels of nitrogen (N). Increased nitrogen loads cause eutrophication and hypoxia in estuaries leading to further degradation of these valuable ecosystems that are already stressed by sea level rise and climate change. Policies to protect wetlands via wastewater treatments are reactive rather than proactive and a growing body of research shows that characteristics associated with population health and economic activity can be identified in wastewater. Analysis of a 2-m salt marsh sediment core reveals δN15 signatures indicative of human population rise and connects human impact to ecosystem health. Using key X-ray fluorescence (XRF), pollen, sediment and nitrogen signatures along the core, a robust chronology was produced dating back to 1700. This result was coupled with population data to observe the relationship between δN15 levels and population over three centuries. There is a statistically significant positive correlation between δN15 and population. Other external factors such as federal government policies (regulating clean water) show a clear reduction in this association but the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer masks the strength of this relationship. Further research to refine the relationship between population and δN15 could be beneficial in predicting nitrogen loads as human population grows, which in turn would create a proactive system to protect our coastal ecosystems.

Nitrogen↗

Introgression and persistence of cultivar alleles in wild carrot ( Daucus carota ) populations in the United States

Abstract Premise Cultivated species and their wild relatives often hybridize in the wild, and the hybrids can survive and reproduce in some environments. However, it is unclear whether cultivar alleles are permanently incorporated into the wild genomes or whether they are purged by natural selection. This question is key to accurately assessing the risk of escape and spread of cultivar genes into wild populations. Methods We used genomic data and population genomic methods to study hybridization and introgression between cultivated and wild carrot (Daucus carota) in the United States. We used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained via genotyping by sequencing for 450 wild individuals from 29 wild georeferenced populations in seven states and 144 cultivars from the United States, Europe, and Asia. Results Cultivated and wild carrot formed two genetically differentiated groups, and evidence of crop–wild admixture was detected in several but not all wild carrot populations in the United States. Two regions were identified where cultivar alleles were present in wild carrots: California and Nantucket Island (Massachusetts). Surprisingly, there was no evidence of introgression in some populations with a long‐known history of sympatry with the crop, suggesting that post‐hybridization barriers might prevent introgression in some areas. Conclusions Our results provide support for the introgression and long‐term persistence of cultivar alleles in wild carrots populations. We thus anticipate that the release of genetically engineered (GE) cultivars would lead to the introduction and spread of GE alleles in wild carrot populations.

Plant Sciences↗

The influence of incubation temperature on offspring traits varies across northern and southern populations of the American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis )

Maternal provisioning and the developmental environment are fundamental determinants of offspring traits, particularly in oviparous species. However, the extent to which embryonic responses to these factors differ across populations to drive phenotypic variation is not well understood. Here, we examine the contributions of maternal provisioning and incubation temperature to hatchling morphological and metabolic traits across four populations of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis), encompassing a large portion of the species' latitudinal range. Our results show that whereas the influence of egg mass is generally consistent across populations, responses to incubation temperature show population-level variation in several traits, including mass, head length, head width, and residual yolk mass. Additionally, the influence of incubation temperature on developmental rate is greater at northern populations, while the allocation of maternal resources toward fat body mass is greater at southern populations. Overall, our results suggest that responses to incubation temperature, relative to maternal provisioning, are a larger source of interpopulation phenotypic variation and may contribute to the local adaptation of populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗