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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of duration and missing data on the long-term photovoltaic degradation rate estimation

Accurate quantification of photovoltaic (PV) system degradation rate (R D ) is essential for lifetime yield predictions. Although R D is a critical parameter, its estimation lacks a standardized methodology that can be applied on outdoor field data. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of time period duration and missing data on R D by analyzing the performance of different techniques applied to synthetic PV system data at different linear R D patterns and known noise conditions. The analysis includes the application of different techniques to a 10-year synthetic dataset of a crystalline Silicon PV system, with emulated degradation levels and imputed missing data. Here, the analysis demonstrated that the accuracy of ordinary least squares (OLS), year-on-year (YOY), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and robust principal component analysis (RPCA) techniques is affected by the evaluation duration with all techniques converging to lower R D deviations over the 10-year evaluation, apart from RPCA at high degradation levels. Moreover, the estimated R D is strongly affected by the amount of missing data. Filtering out the corrupted data yielded more accurate R D results for all techniques. It is proven that the application of a change-point detection stage is necessary and guidelines for accurate R D estimation are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models: Preprint

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to inter-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of said approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating two different clipping correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons will be performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The models can improve accuracy up to 3% in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

clipping↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Adaptive Volt-VAR to Mitigate PV Impacts [Slides]

Distributed generation (DG) sources like photovoltaic (PV) systems with advanced inverters are able to perform grid-support functions, like autonomous Volt-VAR that attempts to mitigate voltage issues by injecting or consuming reactive power. However, the Volt-VAR function operates with VAR priority, meaning real power may be curtailed to provide additional reactive power support. Since some locations on the grid may be more prone to higher voltages than others, PV systems installed at those locations may be forced to curtail more power, adversely impacting the value of that PV system. Adaptive Volt-VAR (AVV) could be implemented as an alternative, whereby the Volt-VAR reference voltage changes over time, but this functionality has not been well-explored in the literature. In this work, the potential benefits and grid impacts of AVV were investigated using yearlong quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations. After testing a variety of allowable AVV settings, we found that even with aggressive settings AVV resulted in <0.01% real power curtailment and significantly reduced the reactive power support required from the PV inverter compared to conventional Volt-VAR but did not provide much mitigation for extreme voltage conditions. The reactive power support provided by AVV was injected to oppose large deviations in voltage (in either direction), indicating that it could be useful for other applications like reducing voltage flicker or minimizing interactions with other voltage regulating devices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaics module reliability for the terawatt age

Photovoltaics (PV), or solar electricity generation, has become the cheapest form of energy in many locations worldwide and, combined with energy storage, has the potential to satisfy most of our electricity needs. PV has grown at an annual compounded growth rate of approximately 30% in the last three decades. Solar energy systems will continue their impressive growth in distributed energy, microgrids, and utility scale, as efforts are made for dependable electricity in an age with increasing extreme weather. However, within this remarkable success lies a new challenge. The growth curve, combined with rapid product innovation and scale up, means that the majority of PV systems are new, without the three years of performance data that have been required in the past to estimate product lifetime. PV reliability has to address this challenge. In this review we present a brief summary of PV reliability starting with brief historical synopsis, detailing some of the technological challenges and present a framework required for long lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved PV System Control Strategies to Reduce Power Management Costs in Nanogrids

An improved PV system control method is proposed to reduce nanogrid operation costs in this paper. A model including it various components such as photovoltaic (PV) systems, energy storage systems (ESSs), gateways, and household loads is considered with the constraints of the ESS, PV irradiance from real data, and household load. We designed an optimal economic dispatch strategy with an improved PV system control method. Combining the proposed optimal economic dispatch and PV system control strategies, it can improve the control performance for both transient and steady-state responses thereby enabling the maximum power to be extracted from the PV. Consequently, the PV power is maximized, which allows the ESS to use less power and sell the surplus to external power sources, which means the proposed method decreases the nanogrid operation costs. Furthermore, this performance is verified via nanogrid simulations and PV experimental kit.

PV system control↗
DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to subhourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

accuracy↗
DOE OSTI2026

SolarAPP+ Performance Review (2024 Data)

The Solar Automated Permit Processing Plus (SolarAPP+) platform is an online portal to facilitate and expedite rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage permitting processes. SolarAPP+ allows PV contractors to upload system specifications, have that information automatically reviewed for code compliance, and receive instant approval for code-compliant systems, reducing authority having jurisdiction (AHJ) staff time needed for review. SolarAPP+ also provides inspection checklists to verify installation practices and adherence to approved designs. This report is part of an ongoing series of reviews of SolarAPP+ performance. Consistent with previous performance reviews, we summarize SolarAPP+ adoption trends to date and compare various metrics for PV systems permitted through SolarAPP+ versus systems permitted through traditional AHJ permitting processes. As of the end of 2024, 799 AHJs had expressed interest in the platform, with 264 fully adopting (215) or piloting (49) the platform. In 2024, 861 installers submitted 37,393 permits through the SolarAPP+ platform, including 27,375 permits for PV+storage systems. SolarAPP+ permits accounted for around 43% of all permits issued in all participating AHJs, and more than 60% of all permits in several participating AHJs. We compare permitting timelines through SolarAPP+ to traditional AHJ permitting processes to assess the platform's performance. Consistent with previous SolarAPP+ performance reviews, we find that permitting timelines are significantly shorter for SolarAPP+ projects. Based on median timelines, a typical SolarAPP+ project is permitted and inspected 12 business days sooner than traditional projects. We estimate that automatic SolarAPP+ permitting saved around 18,400 hours of AHJ staff time in 2024. Finally, we estimate that SolarAPP+ eliminated over 100,000 business days in permitting-related delays in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series: Preprint

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as abrupt time series data shifts. These shifts, which are usually unintentional, may be caused by software or hardware configuration changes on a PV system, and do not reflect an actual change in overall system performance. Locating these shifts and segmenting the associated time series aids in more accurate future PV analysis. In this research, an offline changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects these abrupt data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window for the labeled data sets. To promote further research in this space, we are releasing the labeled data shift sets on U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package.

changepoint detection↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cyber and Physical Security Analysis of GSI and Noventum Application for IoT Communications

We present our findings of the red team exercise conducted on the device and application developed by Guardian Sensors, Inc. (GSI) and Noventum. The app is used for situational awareness and control of photovoltaics (PV) and microgrid energy systems. The assessments performed are practical case scenarios that assess the risks and vulnerabilities posed by the app through targeted activities that could be engaged by an adversary. The assessment team’s results and recommendations are provided to inform on and mitigate the identified weaknesses to improve secure user authentication, connections, and communications. The recommendations in this report are not intended to be a security panacea but will add the desired defense-in-depth layer to securing communication of such interconnected systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as abrupt time series data shifts. These shifts, which are usually unintentional, may be caused by software or hardware configuration changes on a PV system, and do not reflect an actual change in overall system performance. Locating these shifts and segmenting the associated time series aids in more accurate future PV analysis. In this research, an offline changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects these abrupt data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window for the labeled data sets. To promote further research in this space, we are releasing the labeled data shift sets on U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package.

changepoint detection↗
DOE OSTI2021

Houston, We Have a Problem-and a Solution: Solar Performance Initiative Helps Federal Building Boost Rooftop Production

In 2014, the Mickey Leland Federal Building in Houston, Texas installed a 192 kW PV system on top of its parking structure. To monitor and optimize its performance, the General Services Administration, which manages the site, responded to the Federal Energy Management Program’s request for federal agency participation in the Federal Energy Management Program Solar PV Performance Initiative.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmark (Q1 2020)

This report benchmarks U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) system installed costs as of the first quarter of 2020 (Q1 2020). We use a bottom-up method, accounting for all system and project-development costs incurred during the installation to model the costs for residential (with and without storage), commercial (with and without storage), and utility-scale systems (with and without storage). We also incorporate other system characteristics and performance factors, as well as ongoing costs, to benchmark LCOE for PV-standalone systems, and LCOSS for solar+storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PV Inverter Experimental Dataset Version 2 with 100 Percent Power

The increase in power electronic based generation sources require accurate modeling of inverters. Accurate modeling requires experimental data over wider operation range. We used 20 kW off-the-shelf grid following PV inverter in the experiments. We used controllable AC supply and controllable DC supply to emulate AC and DC side characteristics. The experiments were performed at NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility. The PV inverter is tested under 100%, 75%, 50%, 25% load conditions. In the first dataset, for each operating condition, controllable AC source voltage is varied from 0.88 to 1.09 per unit (p.u) with a step value of 0.025 p.u while keeping the frequency at 60 Hz. In the second dataset, under similar load conditions (100%, 75%, 50%, 25% ), the frequency of the controllable AC source voltage was varied from 59.4 Hz to 60.45 Hz with a step value of 0.2 Hz. Voltage and frequency range is chosen based on inverter protection. Voltages and currents on DC and AC side are included in the dataset.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global Techno-Economic Performance of Bifacial and Tracking Photovoltaic Systems

Although most of the current photovoltaic (PV) system installations use monofacial modules with fixed-tilt mounting structures, bifacial modules, trackers, and the combination of them are also getting more attention as potential candidates to further reduce the PV levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). This work is then the first to present a worldwide analysis on the yield potential and cost-effectiveness of PV farms composed of monofacial fixed-tilt and single/dual (1T/2T) tracker installations, as well as their bifacial counterparts. Our approach starts by estimating the irradiance reaching the front and rear surface of the modules for the different system designs (validated based on data from real PV systems and results from the literature) to estimate their energy production (row-row shading is neglected). Subsequently, the overall system cost during their 25-year lifetime is factored in, and LCOE is obtained. The results reveal that bifacial-1T installations increase energy yield by 35% and reach the lowest LCOE for the majority of the world (93.1% of the land area). Although dual axis trackers achieve the highest energy generation — especially for bifacial modules — their cost is still too high, and are therefore not as cost-effective. Sensitivity analyses based on the Monte Carlo and region sensitivity approach are performed to analyze the impact of input assumptions on the calculated LCOE. These reveal that our conclusions are robust in general but exact configuration to choose depends on specific site conditions. This investigation is not only of interest to the scientific community, but also can be used as a guide for PV installation companies and investors to determine the most suitable technology for a particular location.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Metrics Framework for Solar Photovoltaics

This presentation was given at the Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) 54 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are routinely exposed to extreme weather, including wind and hail storms. Historically, most systems have proven to be resilient to such events, but some storms have damaged PV systems, leading to physical and financial loss. Storm hardening measures and specific system attributes can reduce this risk. This work introduces a set of resilience metrics and a framework for quantifying, comparing, and predicting PV system resilience. The framework is divided into two parts: 1) predictive, attribute metrics based on site and component characteristics, and 2) impact metrics that assess post-storm performance. Metrics are weighted and aggregated, producing hazard-specific resilience scores. We derive damage functions from storm-impacted PV systems, establishing a baseline against which post-storm performance can be compared. This damage was widely variable across hail and wind intensities, and field hail damage was less than predicted by laboratory tests, suggesting that system features - in addition to storm conditions - influence damage likelihood. Finally, the metrics framework is demonstrated using three case studies of storm damaged PV systems. Although additional data are needed to create attribute specific damage functions and establish metric weights, this study presents a methodology for evaluating PV resilience and contributes new damage functions to the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

SolarAPP+ Performance Review (2022 Data)

The Solar Automated Permit Processing Plus (SolarAPP+) platform is an online portal to facilitate and expedite rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) permitting processes. SolarAPP+ allows PV contractors to upload system specifications, have those specifications automatically reviewed for code compliance, and receive instant approval for code-compliant systems. SolarAPP+ also provides inspection checklists to verify installation practices and adherence to approved designs. SolarAPP+ is available to authorities having jurisdiction (AHJs) at no cost. This report is part of an ongoing series of reviews of SolarAPP+ performance. Consistent with previous performance reviews, we summarize SolarAPP+ adoption trends to date and compare various metrics for PV systems permitted through SolarAPP+ versus systems permitted through conventional AHJ permitting processes. As of the end of 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) had contacted over 1,500 AHJs with significant solar permitting volume regarding SolarAPP+. Of those, 607 AHJs had at least expressed interest in the platform. 16 AHJs had begun piloting the platform and 15 of these had publicly launched the platform by the end of 2022. In 2022, 206 installers submitted 11,092 permits through the SolarAPP+ platform, including 708 permits for solar+storage systems. SolarAPP+ permits accounted for around 37% of all permits issued in participating AHJs. We compare permitting timelines through SolarAPP+ to traditional AHJ permitting processes to assess the platform's performance. Consistent with previous SolarAPP+ performance reviews, we find that permitting timelines are significantly shorter for SolarAPP+ projects. Based on median timelines, a typical SolarAPP+ project is permitted and inspected 8 business days sooner than traditional projects. We estimate that automatic SolarAPP+ permitting saved between 3,500 and 13,900 hours of AHJ staff time in 2022. Finally, we find evidence that SolarAPP+ may improve inspection outcomes, with SolarAPP+ projects failing inspections about 28% less frequently than traditional projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗