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DOE OSTI2016

SICK: THE SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE CRANK

There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio spectra of M67 stars reveals atomic diffusion processes on the order of 0.05 dex, previously only measurable with differential analysis techniques in high-resolution spectra. sick is easy to use, well-tested, and freely available online through GitHub under the MIT license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Distributions of the Mean for Lognormally Distributed Data - 19427

In environmental sciences, a distribution of the mean is often needed for right-skewed data. For example, risk assessments are often based on distributions of the mean to obtain upper confidence limits (UCLs) for analyte concentrations, and, in probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) models, parameters are given distributions rather than deterministic values, and they are usually given distributions of their mean rather than the population distributions to account for the large spatial and temporal domains to which they are applied. How this distribution of the mean is developed depends on the characteristics of the parameter's full distribution and how the parameter relates to its use. In this presentation, I will discuss the implications of a right skew in distribution development. Parameters may vary over orders of magnitude and/or may be right-skewed. The material property of saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, is a prime example of such a parameter. Right-skewed parameters are often assumed to follow lognormal distributions. If X follows a lognormal distribution, then log(X) follows a normal distribution. For some right-skewed parameters, practitioners go back and forth between the two forms of the data depending on their needs. For example, it may be preferred to use the untransformed version of X in a model or equation, but it is easier to visualize the parameter values on a logarithmic scale. However, distribution development for the average value of the parameter will differ depending on whether X or log(X) is modeled. This difference is due to Jensen's Inequality, a theorem which states that the expected value of a concave function of a variable is less than or equal to the same function of the expected value of the variable; a logarithm is a concave function. In other words, the mean of log(X) is always less than or equal to the log of the mean of X and therefore the mean estimated from a distribution based on log(X) is less than or equal to the mean estimated from a distribution based on X. If a parameter is naturally considered on a log scale by subject matter experts, then distributions developed for the mean of log(X) may be more consistent with the use of the parameters in the literature than distributions developed for X. The statistical decisions of distribution development will be discussed within the context of right-skewed, lognormal data. These issues include method-of-moments versus maximum likelihood estimation of the distribution parameters and the use of bootstrapping to aid in the visualization of a distribution of the mean. The details surrounding Jensen's Inequality will be explained and visualized within the context of distribution development of a right-skewed parameter such as saturated hydraulic conductivity. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electrically Powered High-Salinity Brine Separation Using Dimethyl Ether

Dewatering highly saline aqueous streams, from mining and geothermal leachates to industrial wastewater, is essential for effective resource recovery and safe disposal. Membraneless water extraction (MWE) uses a low-polarity solvent to separate water from concentrated aqueous solutions. In this study, we design a new MWE that uses dimethyl ether (DME) to selectively extract water from high-salinity brines, leveraging the volatility of DME to achieve rapid solvent recovery. By separating water and dissolved salts at a liquid–liquid interface, MWE minimizes the deleterious effects of scaling on vulnerable membrane and heat exchanger surfaces, reducing the need for extensive pretreatment and expensive materials. We begin by developing a computational framework for a multistage counterflow liquid–liquid contactor, which extracts water into DME, coupled with a multistage solvent regenerator that uses vapor compression to efficiently separate the desalinated water from the DME extractant. Excess Gibbs free energy and equation of state frameworks are used to model fluid phase equilibria in water–DME–sodium chloride (NaCl) mixtures, with interaction parameters estimated from experimental data. Incorporating equilibrium calculations into a system-scale computational model, we examine the performance of MWE using DME for the first time. Our analysis demonstrates that MWE can concentrate seawater desalination brine (>1.0 mol NaCl kg –1 ) to zero-liquid discharge salinities, with an energy consumption of under 50 kW h per m 3 of water extracted with a solvent recovery ratio greater than 99.9%. We highlight the importance of staging the vapor compression process to simultaneously minimize energy consumption while enabling brine concentration and product water solvent contamination. Finally, the thermodynamic framework developed here allows for the robust evaluation of new MWE solvents and systems for critical brine concentration and fractional precipitation applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Models of SIV rebound after treatment interruption that involve multiple reactivation events

In order to assess the efficacy of novel HIV-1 treatments leading to a functional cure, the time to viral rebound is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint. The longer the time to viral rebound, the more efficacious the therapy. In support of such an approach, mathematical models serve as a connection between the size of the latent reservoir and the time to HIV-1 rebound after treatment interruption. The simplest of such models assumes that a single successful latent cell reactivation event leads to observable viremia after a period of exponential viral growth. Here we consider a generalization developed by Pinkevych et al. and Hill et al. of this simple model in which multiple reactivation events can occur, each contributing to the exponential growth of the viral load. We formalize and improve the previous derivation of the dynamics predicted by this model, and use the model to estimate relevant biological parameters from SIV rebound data. We confirm a previously described effect of very early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation on the rate of recrudescence and the viral load growth rate after treatment interruption. We find that every day ART initiation is delayed results in a 39% increase in the recrudescence rate (95% credible interval: [18%, 62%]), and a 11% decrease of the viral growth rate (95% credible interval: [4%, 20%]). We show that when viral rebound occurs early relative to the viral load doubling time, a model with multiple successful reactivation events fits the data better than a model with only a single successful reactivation event.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new technique to retrieve aerosol vertical profiles using micropulse lidar and ground-based aerosol measurements

Accurately characterizing the vertical distribution of aerosols and their cloud-forming properties is crucial for understanding aerosol-cloud interactions and their impact on climate. This study presents a novel technique for retrieving vertical profiles of aerosols, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles (INP) by combining micropulse lidar, radiosonde, and ground-based aerosol measurements. Herein, the technique is applied to data collected by our team at Texas A&M University during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. Ground-based aerosol size distribution and CCN counter data are used to estimate the value of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, κ. The derived κ, together with Mie scattering theory and the relative humidity profile from the radiosonde, is used to estimate aerosol size growth and the associated increase in backscatter at each altitude. We then correct the lidar backscatter to dry conditions to produce the dry aerosol backscatter coefficient profile. The dry aerosol backscatter coefficient profile is linearly scaled to collocated surface measurements of aerosols, CCN, and INP to produce corresponding vertical profiles. Combining lidar backscatter profiles with aerosol and cloud nucleation measurements leads to a more realistic representation of vertical distributions of aerosol properties. The method could be readily applied to lidar measurements in future field campaigns.

Chen, Bo [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (↗

DOE OSTI2018

Model selection and parameter estimation in tumor growth models using approximate Bayesian computation-ABC

Cancer is one of the most fatal diseases in the world. Governments and researchers from various areas have continuously concentrated efforts to better understand the disease and propose diagnostic and treatment techniques. The use of mathematical models of tumor growth is of great importance for the development of such techniques. Due to the variety of models nowadays available in the literature, the problems of model selection and parameter estimation come into picture, aiming at suitably predicting the patient’s status of the disease. As the available data on dependent variables of existing models might not justify the use of common likelihood functions, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) becomes a very attractive tool for model selection and model calibration (parameter estimation) in tumor growth models. In the present study, a Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm is applied to select among competing models of tumor growth, with and without chemotherapy treatment. Simulated measurements are used in this work. The results obtained show that the algorithm correctly selects the model and estimates the parameters used to generate the simulated measurements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Convective Parameters Derived from Radiosonde Data (SONDEPARAM) Value-Added Product Report

Radiosondes provide fundamental observations of the vertical profile of atmospheric state (pressure, temperature, humidity, and winds), with important implications for subsequent studies on environmental controls on cloud conditions. Within convective cloud environments, there is an increasing demand for additional value-added products (VAPs) to facilitate the use of U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility radiosonde data sets. Such VAPs should provide quick and reliable estimates for several standard radiosonde parameters or quantities of interest using common assumptions, as well as open, flexible code for visualization and user interaction. The Convective Parameters Derived from Radiosonde Data (SONDEPARAM) VAP will apply several robust algorithms used in Wang et al. (2020) for the calculation of useful radiosonde convective cloud parameters, including the convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and other convective parameters, for several different assumptions regarding the initial parcel characteristics (i.e., surface-based, most unstable, mixed layer). These ARM VAP codes are developed in open, flexible Python formats, with the intention that these parameters/calculations will be incorporated into traditional ARM quick-look radiosonde plotting, yet associated with user-available codes for ease in user reproduction and assumption modification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Updated universal relations for tidal deformabilities of neutron stars from phenomenological equations of state

Equation of state (EOS) insensitive relations, so-called universal relations, between the neutron star (NS) compactness, its multipolar tidal deformability coefficients, and between the tidal parameters for binary systems are essential to break degeneracies in gravitational wave data analysis. Here, we validate and recalibrate these universal relations using a large set of almost 2 million phenomenological EOSs that are consistent with current observations. In doing so, we extend universal relations to a larger region of the EOS parameter space, most notably to softer EOSs and larger compactnesses. We show that waveform models that neglect higher-than-leading-order tidal deformations of the NSs accumulate as much as 3.5 radians of dephasing from 20Hz to merger. Further, we also perform a full Bayesian parameter estimation of the GW170817 data, and we compare the NS radius constraints produced using universal relations from the literature and the updated fits we propose here. We find that the new fits yield a NS radius that is smaller by about 500 meters. This difference is less than the statistical uncertainty on the radius at the signal-to-noise-ratio of GW170817, but it is significantly larger than the precision anticipated for next-generation detectors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating hypersonic turbulence flow models with the HIFiRE-1 experiment using data-driven machine-learned models.

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate models are essential for many-query applications e.g., engineering design optimization and parameter estimation, where it is necessary to invoke the high-fidelity model sequentially, many times. Surrogate models are usually constructed for individual scalar quantities. However there are scenarios where a spatially varying field needs to be modeled as a function of the model’s input parameters. Here we develop a method to do so, using projections to represent spatial variability while a machine-learned model captures the dependence of the model’s response on the inputs. The method is demonstrated on modeling the heat flux and pressure on the surface of the HIFiRE-1 geometry in a Mach 7.16 turbulent flow. The surrogate model is then used to perform Bayesian estimation of freestream conditions and parameters of the SST (Shear Stress Transport) turbulence model embedded in the high-fidelity (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) flow simulator, using shock-tunnel data. The paper provides the first-ever Bayesian calibration of a turbulence model for complex hypersonic turbulent flows. We find that the primary issues in estimating the SST model parameters are the limited information content of the heat flux and pressure measurements and the large model-form error encountered in a certain part of the flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Reconstruction of neuronal input through modeling single-neuron dynamics and computations

Mathematical models provide a mathematical description of neuron activity, which can better understand and quantify neural computations and corresponding biophysical mechanisms evoked by stimulus. In this paper, based on the output spike train evoked by the acupuncture mechanical stimulus, we present two different levels of models to describe the input-output system to achieve the reconstruction of neuronal input. The reconstruction process is divided into two steps: First, considering the neuronal spiking event as a Gamma stochastic process. The scale parameter and the shape parameter of Gamma process are, respectively, defined as two spiking characteristics, which are estimated by a state-space method. Then, leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model is used to mimic the response system and the estimated spiking characteristics are transformed into two temporal input parameters of LIF model, through two conversion formulas. We test this reconstruction method by three different groups of simulation data. All three groups of estimates reconstruct input parameters with fairly high accuracy. We then use this reconstruction method to estimate the non-measurable acupuncture input parameters. Results show that under three different frequencies of acupuncture stimulus conditions, estimated input parameters have an obvious difference. The higher the frequency of the acupuncture stimulus is, the higher the accuracy of reconstruction is.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Blueprints for Training Information Bottlenecks for Collider Analyses

Dimensionality reduction is a crucial aspect of data analysis in high energy physics, even if accompanied by information loss. Several methods, including histogram- and kernel-based analyses, are only computationally feasible for low-dimensional data. Furthermore, simulation models used in HEP can often only be validated for low-dimensional data. We provide several blueprints for using machine learning to create low-dimensional data representations (continuous event variables and discrete classification labels) for use in signal discovery and parameter estimation tasks. We also describe how to design the learned representation to facilitate a) searches with unknown model parameters and b) validation of simulation models in data control regions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

How deep is your soil? Quantifying and spatially analyzing understudied deep soil in the United States

Deep soil is largely understudied and important in understanding biogeochemical processes in soil. Here, understudied soil is defined as the difference between soil studied to a known depth and the estimated bedrock depth. To understand more about deep soil, the understudied soil in the US was quantified and spatially analyzed using soil survey data and model estimates of bedrock depth. An equation was derived to find understudied soil using the dataset parameters “max lower depth studied”, “depth to bedrock”, and “likelihood of bedrock in the top 200 cm”. The survey data and bedrock model revealed that soil has been studied to an average depth of 1-2 meters, and the average depth to bedrock is 20 meters. Soil data density in the soil surveys was greatest in the West Coast, Midwest, and areas historically managed for agricultural, while the non-contiguous US and interior West were underrepresented. The soil had been studied deeper than the estimated soil depth in 455 out of 56,889 observation points concentrated in Alaska, California, Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. To understand the diversity and any taxonomic bias of the global soil data available, soil order was compared to US-based National Resource Conservation Service percentages and it was found that Oxisols, Alfisols, Ultisols, Andisols, and Histosols were overrepresented while Gelisols, Aridisols, Vertisols, Entisols, and Spodosols are underrepresented. Soil depth is important in exploring the complexity of biogeochemical processes that take place in soil.

Bedrock↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural networks for parameter estimation in intractable models

The goal is to use deep learning models to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. For instance, inference for max-stable processes is exceptionally challenging even with small datasets, but simulation is straightforward. Data from model simulations are used to train deep neural networks and learn statistical parameters from max-stable models. The proposed neural network-based method provides a competitive alternative to current approaches, as demonstrated by considerable accuracy and computational time improvements. Finally, it serves as a proof of concept for deep learning in statistical parameter estimation and can be extended to other estimation problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Parameter Estimator for Engineering Systems

This software model generates vehicle parameter sets for downstream modeling applications using real-world data. Value to users is provided through improvements to modeling activities as a result of decreases in time taken during model development and validation. Currently configured for transportation modeling activities, the software provides initial estimates for multiple fundamental vehicle parameters including mass, coefficient of drag, and tire rolling resistance using real-world drive and duty cycle information as inputs.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying shallow subsurface water and heat dynamics using coupled hydrological-thermal-geophysical inversion

Improving our ability to estimate the parameters that control water and heat fluxes in the shallow subsurface is particularly important due to their strong control on recharge, evaporation and biogeochemical processes. The objectives of this study are to develop and test a new inversion scheme to simultaneously estimate subsurface hydrological, thermal and petrophysical parameters using hydrological, thermal and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. The inversion scheme – which is based on a nonisothermal, multiphase hydrological model – provides the desired subsurface property estimates in high spatiotemporal resolution. A particularly novel aspect of the inversion scheme is the explicit incorporation of the dependence of the subsurface electrical resistivity on both moisture and temperature. The scheme was applied to synthetic case studies, as well as to real datasets that were autonomously collected at a biogeochemical field study site in Rifle, Colorado. At the Rifle site, the coupled hydrological-thermal-geophysical inversion approach well predicted the matric potential, temperature and apparent resistivity with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency criterion greater than 0.92. Synthetic studies found that neglecting the subsurface temperature variability, and its effect on the electrical resistivity in the hydrogeophysical inversion, may lead to an incorrect estimation of the hydrological parameters. The approach is expected to be especially useful for the increasing number of studies that are taking advantage of autonomously collected ERT and soil measurements to explore complex terrestrial system dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

PEES (Parameter Estimator for Engineering Systems) [SWR-16-38]

Miller, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗