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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Measuring and Modeling Shared Visual Attention

Multi-person teams are sometimes responsible for critical tasks, such as flying an airliner. Here we present a method using gaze tracking data to assess shared visual attention, a term we use to describe the situation where team members are attending to a common set of elements in the environment. Gaze data are quantized with respect to a set of N areas of interest (AOIs); these are then used to construct a time series of N dimensional vectors, with each vector component representing one of the AOIs, all set to 0 except for the component corresponding to the currently fixated AOI, which is set to 1. The resulting sequence of vectors can be averaged in time, with the result that each vector component represents the proportion of time that the corresponding AOI was fixated within the given time interval. We present two methods for comparing sequences of this sort, one based on computing the time-varying correlation of the averaged vectors, and another based on a chi-square test testing the hypothesis that the observed gaze proportions are drawn from identical probability distributions. We have evaluated the method using synthetic data sets, in which the behavior was modeled as a series of "activities," each of which was modeled as a first-order Markov process. By tabulating distributions for pairs of identical and disparate activities, we are able to perform a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, allowing us to choose appropriate criteria and estimate error rates. We have applied the methods to data from airline crews, collected in a high-fidelity flight simulator (Haslbeck, Gontar & Schubert, 2014). We conclude by considering the problem of automatic (blind) discovery of activities, using methods developed for text analysis.

attention↗
NASA NTRS2015

Measuring and Modeling Shared Visual Attention

Multi-person teams are sometimes responsible for critical tasks, such as flying an airliner. Here we present a method using gaze tracking data to assess shared visual attention, a term we use to describe the situation where team members are attending to a common set of elements in the environment. Gaze data are quantized with respect to a set of N areas of interest (AOIs); these are then used to construct a time series of N dimensional vectors, with each vector component representing one of the AOIs, all set to 0 except for the component corresponding to the currently fixated AOI, which is set to 1. The resulting sequence of vectors can be averaged in time, with the result that each vector component represents the proportion of time that the corresponding AOI was fixated within the given time interval.We present two methods for comparing sequences of this sort, one based on computing the time varying correlation of the averaged vectors, and another based on a chi-square test testing the hypothesis that the observed gaze proportions are drawn from identical probability distributions.We have evaluated the method using synthetic data sets, in which the behavior was modeled as a series of activities, each of which was modeled as a first-order Markov process. By tabulating distributions for pairs of identical and disparate activities, we are able to perform a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, allowing us to choose appropriate criteria and estimate error rates. Using these criteria, we have applied the methods to data from airline crews, collected in a high-fidelity flight simulator (Gontar Hoermann, 2014). We conclude by considering the problem of automatic (blind) discovery of activities, using methods developed for text analysis.

Mulligan, Jeffrey B.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Comparative assessment of prognosis of the stop stimulus and trapezoidal rotation programs

For prognosis of the diagnostic possibilities of the stop stimulus and trapezoidal rotation programs with respect to the nystagmus response, 24 healthy young persons with normal auditory and vestibular analysers were studied experimentally. The trapezoidal program more accurately reflects the function and tone balance of the vestibular system than the stop stimulus program and causes the subject no unpleasant sensations during the study. Some optimum couples, acceleration and armchair rotation rate, necessary for effective deviation of the cupuloendolymphatic system were determined. The maximum angular velocity of the slow nystagmus component was more informative than nystagmus duration. The trapezoidal program is recommended for otoneurological practice and the maximum angular velocity of the slow nystagmus component as the basic index.

Grigorova, V. K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Concept Study of Robotic Camera-Based Foreign Object Detection for EV Wireless Charging

Wireless charging of an electric vehicle (EV) is an emerging charging technology promising convenient, autonomous, and highly efficient EV charging without requiring heavy gauge cables. However, due to the strong electromagnetic field created by this process that surrounds the wireless charger, the presence of foreign objects can detrimentally interact with it, thus affecting wireless power transfer (WPT) performance or leading to harmful and unwanted safety risks. This paper presents the results for a concept study on a robotic camera-based foreign object detection (FOD) system, as a supplement to the industry-existing overlapped FOD coil array method, for EV wireless charging. A Raspberry PI 4 control board and compatible Raspberry PI Camera Module 2 are used to implement camera-based object detection. The FOD program was developed using a state-of-the-art deep learning object detection model with the OpenCV and Pytorch library and is compatible with camera module hardware. A dry-run test with Raspberry PI and a camera module was conducted and the preliminary FOD function was verified. The feasibility assessment is also validated by comparing the performance of five existing state-of-the-art deep learning object detection models for vehicles, animals, persons, and metals subsets, respectively. Satisfactory performance on the benchmark datasets is observed by the tests, but further improvements are needed in future work when detecting small-sized metallic objects. A programable robotic car is also under development as ongoing work for carrying the Raspberry PI and camera module while moving for the maintenance process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1993

Navigational demands of low-level helicopter flight

The present study was designed to assess the verbal references to map, terrain, direction, and position, that navigators and pilots communicate during a simulated low-level flight. Two-person crews were asked to communicate normally while negotiating six short flight missions that varied widely in regard to map-terrain characteristics. Half of the crews performed the exercises with fixed, north-up maps and the other half used movable maps that were adjusted to maintain a track-up correspondence to the flight route. An analysis was performed to compare differences in crew communication patterns between map orientations, characteristics, and navigation tasks. The results showed differences in the frequency of communication across categories for map characteristics but not for map orientations or tasks. A difference in the proportion of communications between pilot and navigator occurred when crew were lost. Pilots communicated more than navigators when crews were lost and the reverse was true when crews were not lost. The results support and extend findings from a distance error performance analysis performed on the same flight missions.

Delzell, Susanne↗
NASA NTRS2012

From Kennedy, to Beyond: Growing Plants in Space

Astronauts cannot have their cake and eat it too, but what about growing a salad and eating it? As NASA continues to push the envelope on Space exploration and inhabitance the need for a fresh food source becomes more vital. The Life Support team at NASA is using a system developed by ORBITEC the VEGGIE, in which astronauts aboard the ISS, and potentially the Moon and Mars, will be capable of growing food. The introduction of plants not only gives astronauts a means of independently supplying food, but also recreation, oxygen replenishment and psychological benefits. The plants were grown in "pillows", the system used for growing plants within the VEGGIE. This test included 4 types of media mixtures that are composed of a clay based media called Arcilite and Fafard #2, which is a peat moss-based media ( <1 mm Arcilite, 1-2 mm of Arcilite, 1:1 <1 mm & 1-2 mm mixture and 1:1 Arcilite & Fafard mixture). Currently, 3 lettuce cultivars are being grown in 4 mixtures of media. Tests were being conducted to see which form of media has the ratio of best growth and least amount of microbes that are harmful. That is essential because a person's body becomes more susceptible to illness when they leave Earth. As a result, test must be conducted on the "pillow" system to assess the levels of microbial activity. The cultivars were tested at different stages during their growing process for microbes. Datum show that the mix of Fafard and Arcilite had the best growth, but also the most microbes. This was due to the fact that Fafard is an organic substance so it contains material necessary for microbes to live. Data suggest that the <1 mm Arcilite has an acceptable amount of growth and a lower level of microbes, because it is non-organic.

Flemming, Cedric, II↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Increased Rates of Hip and Spine Fractures in Astronauts are Associated with Longer Spaceflight Durations

Given the accelerated declines in bone mineral density reported in US astronauts serving on the International Space Station, there is a possibility that a prolonged exposure to spaceflight could put astronauts at increased fracture risk during subsequent planetary explorations or after return to Earth. To date, there have been no fractures in astronauts during spaceflight. Recently-reported data from a flight study suggested that intake of the bisphosphonate alendronate combined with resistive exercise (on the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device – ARED) preserved more astronauts at their preflight skeletal status after a ~6-mos spaceflight than with ARED exercise alone. However, there is low acceptance of alendronate, or the recommended zoledronic acid, to suppress in-flight bone loss largely due to concern for unintended medication side effects and a perceived absence of astronaut fractures that can be directly attributable to spaceflight exposure. Hence, a recent survey of all astronaut fractures was analyzed to assess whether the rate of postflight fractures could be associated with extended spaceflight exposures. The fracture survey was of 262 astronauts across 8433.6 person-years (PY) and grouped according to previous exposure to a “Long Duration (LD)” spaceflight (3 mos or greater, but typically 6-mos). The number of fractures was modeled using count regression adjusting for i) the repeated measures within individuals across the groups, ii) the differing length of surveillance for each individual and iii) age at start of surveillance for each of the groups. Astronaut Group by Spaceflight Exposure #Individuals PY Covered No Exposure to Spaceflight 262 1882.7 No Exposure to LD spaceflight “Non-LD” 232 6121.3 Exposure to LD spaceflight 42 429.6 Analysis revealed an increased rate of hip and spine fractures for surveillance periods compared between LD Exposure and Non-LD Exposure: Hip – Relative Rate: 3.4 (95%CI: 1.0, 12.0); Spine– Relative Rate: 3.4 (95%CI: 1.0, 11.6). For all other skeletal sites, rates of fracture were similar for LD and Non-LD exposures. Data comparisons were conducted between groups of astronauts to preclude the interpretation of greater physical activity in astronauts as a contributing factor to fracture rates. This analysis of fracture data is the first report associating postflight hip and spine fractures in astronauts with exposure to extended duration spaceflights. Further analyses integrating co-morbidities for bone loss are planned.

skeleton↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

...And the Beats Keep Runnin Runnin (In Space)

Introduction: This case series describes the medical clearance of NASA astronauts after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation seeking to fly to the International Space Station (ISS). BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is the most common sustained arrhythmia with increasing incidence with age and is associated with increased lifetime risk of stroke. Treatment may consist of pharmacologic rate control and anticoagulation. Although it is not yet known how spaceflight modifies risk of cardioembolic event or adverse treatment effects, these can have significant impact on mission and crew health for spaceflight and granting a medical waiver for flight is a complex, case-by-case consideration. Case Presentation: We reviewed all records of waivers granted by NASA for atrial fibrillation and flutter, and identified 6 cases (4 short-duration [<18 days] and 2 long-duration missions [>60 days]) where waiver was granted with subsequent spaceflight. DISCUSSION: NASA has approved astronauts with a history of atrial fibrillation or flutter for flight following an appropriate medical evaluation. With the high prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the general population, we anticipate that consideration of medical waiver will become increasingly common as commercial spaceflight grows. These cases provide a potential framework for risk assessment and management of this population, to balance potential risk modification inherent in the microgravity environment against implications to crew performance, mission success, and personal health of spaceflight participants

Space Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subject-specific multi-scale modeling of the fate of inhaled aerosols

Determining the fate of inhaled aerosols in the respiratory system is essential in assessing the potential toxicity of inhaled airborne materials, responses to airborne pathogens, or in improving inhaled drug delivery. The availability of high-resolution clinical lung imaging and advances in the reconstruction of lung airways from CT images have led to the development of subject-specific in-silico 3D models of aerosol dosimetry, often referred to as computational fluid-particle-dynamics (CFPD) models. As CFPD models require extensive computing resources, they are typically confined to the upper and large airways. These models can be combined with lower-dimensional models to form multiscale models that predict the transport and deposition of inhaled aerosols in the entire respiratory tract. Understanding where aerosols deposit is only the first of potentially several key events necessary to predict an outcome, being a detrimental health effect or a therapeutic response. To that end, multiscale approaches that combine CFPD with physiologically-based pharmacokinetics (PBPK) models have been developed to evaluate the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) of toxic or medicinal chemicals in one or more compartments of the human body. CFPD models can also be combined with host cell dynamics (HCD) models to assess regional immune system responses. Here, this paper reviews the state of the art of these different multiscale approaches and discusses the potential role of personalized or subject-specific modeling in respiratory health.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Space Station Freedom Data Assessment Study

The SSF Data Assessment Study was initiated to identify payload and operations data requirements to be supported in the Space Station era. To initiate the study payload requirements from the projected SSF user community were obtained utilizing an electronic questionnaire. The results of the questionnaire were incorporated in a personal computer compatible database used for mission scheduling and end-to-end communications analyses. This paper discusses data flow paths and associated latencies, communications bottlenecks, resource needs versus availability, payload scheduling 'warning flags' and payload data loading requirements for each major milestone in the Space Station buildup sequence. This paper also presents the statistical and analytical assessments produced using the data base, an experiment scheduling program, and a Space Station unique end-to-end simulation model. The modeling concepts and simulation methodologies presented in this paper provide a foundation for forecasting communication requirements and identifying modeling tools to be used in the SSF Tactical Operations Planning (TOP) process.

Johnson, Anngienetta R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Management. A continuing bibliography with indexes

This bibliography cites 604 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in 1979 covering the management of research and development, contracts, production, logistics, personnel, safety, reliability and quality control. Program, project, and systems management; management policy, philosophy, tools, and techniques; decision making processes for managers; technology assessment; management of urban problems; and information for managers on Federal resources, expenditures, financing, and budgeting are also covered. Abstracts are provided as well as subject, personal author, and corporate source indexes.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1986

FASAC Technical Assessment Report: Soviet Space Science Research

This report is the work of a panel of eight US scientists who surveyed and assessed Soviet research in the spare sciences. All of the panelists were very familiar with Soviet research through their knowledge of the published scientific literature and personal contacts with Soviet and other foreign colleagues. In addition, all of the panelists reviewed considerable additional open literature--scientific, and popular, including news releases. The specific disciplines of Soviet space science research examined in detail for the report were: solar-terrestrial research, lunar and planetary research, space astronomy and astrophysics, and, life sciences. The Soviet Union has in the past carried out an ambitious program in lunar exploration and, more recently, in studies of the inner planets, Mars and especially Venus. The Soviets have provided scientific data about the latter planet which has been crucial for studies of the planet's evolution. Future programs envision an encounter with Halley's Comet, in March 1986, and missions to Mars and asteroids. The Soviet programs in the life sciences and solar-terrestrial research have been long-lasting and systematically pursued. Much of the ground-based and space-based research in these two disciplines appears to be motivated by the requirement to establish long-term human habitation in near-Earth space. The Soviet contributions to new discoveries and understanding in observational space astronomy and astrophysics have been few. This is in significant contrast to the very excellent theoretical work contributed by Soviet scientists in this discipline.

Lanzerotti, L. J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pilot Assessment of Immune Dysregulation, Stress and Latent Herpesvirus Reactivation at Palmer, Antarctica - Platform for validation of Immune Countermeasures?

Recent studieshave characterized adverse health events potentially relatedto immune system dysregulation, latent herpesvirus reactivation, and clinical incidence for crewmembers onboard ISS. Both areview article describing potential spaceflight countermeasures related to immunityand a specific countermeasures protocol for deep space missions were recently published. An appropriate ground analogto enable spaceflight countermeasures has yet to be validated, although winterover in Antarctica (AWO) seems a highly relevant mission parallel to spaceflight. AWO consists of prolonged deployment, extreme environment, circadian misalignment, personal isolation, station lifestyle (varies by base), and personal risk. Through several studies, AWO at several European bases has beencharacterized, and to date the data has revealed that (immunologically) deployment to interior bases at elevation and with persistent hypobaric hypoxia possesses certaindissimilarities to spaceflight. This proposal seeks to collect low cost pilot data assessing stress, immunity and viral reactivation during AWOat thecoastalU.S. Palmer Station. Even among coastal bases, lifestyle, available crew time/workload and logistical access can vary considerably. Considering all factors, if validated, Palmer may be the most feasible location to evaluate NASA countermeasures. The goal of this pilot study is to ascertain if Palmer may serve as a spaceflight analog option for ground validation of immune countermeasures.The study initiatedwith the crew deployed for winterover at Palmer in 2020.A second crew participated in the recently concluded WO2021 season.All participatingcrew havecollectedand preservedsaliva, plasma and hair samples. On location, the crewmembers alsoperformeda fingerstick blood collection for immediate analysis of basic peripheral leukocyte subsets. Preserved biosamples have beenreturned for analysis, with the WO2020 samples received, and the WO2021 samples currently en-route to Houston. It should be noted that COVID-19 had significant impacts on operations, including training and the collection of pre-mission baseline samples. Preliminary data from the 2020 crewmembers indicate that a relatively mild but detectable immune dysregulation persists at Palmer Station, including alterations in concentration of some plasma cytokines and consistent increases in the incidence of EBV reactivation. Final study data will be tabulated upon receipt of the 2021 crew samples.

Stephanie Krieger↗
NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Phenomenological Verification Techniques

Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, 45th Weather Squadron, and National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL use mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output in creating their operational forecasts. These models aid in forecasting weather phenomena that could compromise the safety of launch, landing, and daily ground operations and must produce reasonable weather forecasts in order for their output to be useful in operations. Considering the importance of model forecasts to operations, their accuracy in forecasting critical weather phenomena must be verified to determine their usefulness. The currently-used traditional verification techniques involve an objective point-by-point comparison of model output and observations valid at the same time and location. The resulting statistics can unfairly penalize high-resolution models that make realistic forecasts of a certain phenomena, but are offset from the observations in small time and/or space increments. Manual subjective verification can provide a more valid representation of model performance, but is time-consuming and prone to personal biases. An objective technique that verifies specific meteorological phenomena, much in the way a human would in a subjective evaluation, would likely produce a more realistic assessment of model performance. Such techniques are being developed in the research community. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a literature search to identify phenomenological verification techniques being developed, determine if any are ready to use operationally, and outline the steps needed to implement any operationally-ready techniques into the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The AMU conducted a search of all literature on the topic of phenomenological-based mesoscale model verification techniques and found 10 different techniques in various stages of development. Six of the techniques were developed to verify precipitation forecasts, one to verify sea breeze forecasts, and three were capable of verifying several phenomena. The AMU also determined the feasibility of transitioning each technique into operations and rated the operational capability of each technique on a subjective 1-10 scale: (1) 1 indicates that the technique is only in the initial stages of development, (2) 2-5 indicates that the technique is still undergoing modifications and is not ready for operations, (3) 6-8 indicates a higher probability of integrating the technique into AWIPS with code modifications, and (4) 9-10 indicates that the technique was created for AWIPS and is ready for implementation. Eight of the techniques were assigned a rating of 5 or below. The other two received ratings of 6 and 7, and none of the techniques a rating of 9-10. At the current time, there are no phenomenological model verification techniques ready for operational use. However, several of the techniques described in this report may become viable techniques in the future and should be monitored for updates in the literature. The desire to use a phenomenological verification technique is widespread in the modeling community, and it is likely that other techniques besides those described herein are being developed, but the work has not yet been published. Therefore, the AMIU recommends that the literature continue to be monitored for updates to the techniques described in this report and for new techniques being developed whose results have not yet been published. 111

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Hopper: A Wearable Robotic Device Testbed for Micro-Gravity Bone-Loading Proof-of-Concept

Wearable robotic systems are showing increased potential for addressing crew countermeasures needs. Wearable robots offer a compactness, programmability, and eccentric loading capability not present in more conventional exercise equipment. Correspondingly, advancements in the man to machine interface has progressed, allowing for higher loads to be applied directly to the person in new and novel ways. Recently, the X1 exoskeleton, a lower extremity wearable robot originally designed for mobility assistance and rehabilitation, underwent human subject testing to assess its potential as a knee dynamometer. This was of interest to NASA physiologists because currently strength is not assessed in flight due to hardware limitations, and thus there is a poor understanding of the time course of in-flight changes to muscle strength. The study concluded that the X1 compared well with the Biodex, the "gold standard" in terrestrial dynamometry, with coefficients of variation less than 6.0%. In a following study, the X1 powered ankle was evaluated for its efficacy in exercising calf muscles. Current on-orbit countermeasures equipment does not adequately protect the calf from atrophy. The results of this study were also positive (targeted muscle activity demonstrated via comparing pre- and post-exercise magnetic resonance imaging T2 measurements), again showing the efficacy of wearable robotic devices for addressing the countermeasure needs of our astronauts. Based on these successes and lessons learned, the Grasshopper was co-developed between IHMC (Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition) and NASA. The Grasshopper, or the Hopper for short, is a wearable robotic device designed to address muscle and bone density loss for astronauts spending extended periods of time in micro-gravity. The Grasshopper connects to the user's torso like a hiking backpack, over the shoulders and around the waist. At the feet are footplates that strap to the user. There are two actuators, one at each "knee" joint, which are capable of high fidelity torque control. Because the Hopper uses motors instead of gravity to create the load on the user, the device is suited for use on space missions. Exercise in zero-gravity conditions is critical to maintain muscle strength and bone mass. In operation, the actuators try to fold up, or collapse, the device, putting a compressive load between the user's feet and torso. This force is similar to carrying a heavy backpack. The user then bends and extends his or her knees, replicating a weightlifting squat exercise. The applied load is precisely controlled by a computer, and can be programmed to simulate gravitation loads or any desired load prescription, such as free-weight squat exercise. It is even possible to perform eccentric exercises, or negatives, without the need for a spotter. Because the hip joints, as well as the spine and long leg bones, are in the applied load path, there is the potential to stimulate bone growth, countering the typical bone loss when astronauts return from extended duration space travel.

Beck, C. E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Subject-specific modeling framework for particle deposition using computational fluid dynamics

Quantifying particle deposition and dose in the respiratory tract requires a physiologically realistic representation and reproducible computational workflows. However, existing modeling frameworks, such as the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) compartmental models and the Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) tool, lack detailed deposition profiles and subject-specific capabilities. The combination of advances in computer vision algorithms applied to the respiratory tract and Computational Fluid and Particle Dynamics (CFPD) allows high-fidelity simulations of particle behavior in anatomically accurate geometries derived from individual CT scans. The segmentation, preprocessing, and file preparation task for a CFPD simulation was often time-consuming, and no prior studies to-date have yet presented a fully automated framework. This work presents a fully automated workflow to obtain individualized particle deposition profiles in the human respiratory tract. The pipeline starts with segmenting upper and lower airway geometries using morphological and deep learning-based methods, generating three-dimensional (3D) models from CT imaging data. Next, a series of algorithms are presented to quality check and prepare the 3D geometry for a CFD or CFPD simulation. The preprocessing step includes correcting geometric artifacts, enforcing a physically consistent mesh, and automatically identifying and capping multiple outlets, which is required for CFD/CFPD simulations. These processed models are then input into open-source (OpenFOAM) or commercial (StarCCM+) CFD solvers, where flow and transient particle transport equations — including turbulence and particle–wall interactions are solved under realistic breathing conditions. Finally, the resulting particle deposition profiles can be integrated with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes and state-of-the-art computational phantoms to assess organ-specific absorbed doses in scenarios of radioactive aerosol inhalation. The presented work streamlines respiratory tract segmentation, preprocessing for CFD/CFPD simulations, and integration with dose assessment workflows, reducing manual intervention and improving access to high-fidelity, subject-specific modeling. The high precision in predicted particle deposition and dose distributions can improve personalized treatment strategies in respiratory medicine and refine dose estimates for radiation protection.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiological Impact of 2023 Operations at the Savannah River Site

This report presents the environmental dose assessment methods and the estimated potential doses to the public from 2023 Savannah River Site (SRS) air and liquid radioactive releases. Also documented are potential doses from special-case exposure scenarios, such as the consumption of wildlife or goat milk. Dose to the Offsite Representative Person The 2023 dose to the offsite representative person from SRS liquid releases was 0.14 mrem and from SRS air releases it was 0.016 mrem. To show compliance with the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) all pathway dose standard of 100 mrem/yr, SRS conservatively adds these two doses for a total representative person dose of 0.16 mrem which is 0.16% of the DOE standard. Sportsman Doses Onsite Hunter: SRS conducts annual hunts to control onsite deer and feral hog populations. The estimated dose from consuming harvested deer or hog meat is determined for every onsite hunter. During 2023, the maximum potential dose an onsite hunter received was 9.42 mrem, or 9.42% of DOE’s 100 mrem/yr all pathway dose standard. Creek Mouth Fisherman: SRS estimated the maximum potential dose from fish consumption at 0.17 mrem from bass collected at the mouth of Lower Three Runs. This dose is 0.17% of the DOE standard. SRS bases this hypothetical dose on the low probability scenario that, during 2023, a fisherman consumed 24 kg (53 lbs) of bass caught exclusively from the mouth of Lower Three Runs. Release of Material Containing Residual Radioactivity SRS did not release any real property (land or buildings) in 2023. SRS unconditionally released a total of 13,324 items of personal property (such as tools) from radiological areas in 2023. Most of these items did not leave the Site. However, all of these items required no additional radiological controls post-survey as they met DOE Order 458.1 release criteria. Radiation Dose to Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota SRS conducts screening evaluations of plant and animal doses for aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. For 2023, all SRS aquatic system locations passed the initial (Level 1) screenings and no further assessments were required at those locations. For the land-based systems evaluation, SRS performed initial screenings using concentration data from the five onsite radiological soil sampling locations. Typically, SRS collects and analyzes only one soil sample per year from each location. For 2023, all land-based locations passed their initial (Level 1) pathway screenings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗