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PyroCbs from Australia Fires and its Impact Using Satellite Observations from CrIS and TROPOMI and Reanalysis Data

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are thunder clouds created by intense heat from the Earth’s surface. They are formed similarly to cumulonimbus clouds, but the intense heat that results in the vigorous updraft comes from fire, either large wildfires or volcanic eruptions. Australia’s unprecedented fire disasters at the end of 2019 to early 2020 emitted huge amounts of carbon monoxide (CO) and fire aerosol particles to the atmosphere, particularly during the pyroCb outbreak that occurred in southeast Australia between 29 December 2019 and 4 January 2020. It was estimated that at least 18 pyroCbs were generated during this episode, and some of them injected ice, smoke, and biomass burning gases above the local tropopause. An unprecedented abundance of H2O and CO in the stratosphere, and the displacement of background ozone (O3) and N2O from rapid ascent of air from the troposphere and lower stratosphere were found from satellite observations. Some other studies also found that the fire emissions and their long-range transport resulted in stratospheric aerosol, temperature, and O3 anomalies after the 2020 Australian bushfires and altered the Antarctic ozone and vortex, posing great impact to local air quality and climate change. Further study on the atmospheric thermodynamic status of atmosphere associated with these pyroCbs, and the change of the cloud properties and trace gases during this unprecedented Australia fires will be made using a new single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Products (SiFSAP). SiFSAP was developed by NASA using the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard SNPP and JPSS-1, and will soon be available to the public at NASA DAAC. Since this product has a spatial resolution of 15 km at nadir, which is better than most global weather and climate models and other current operational sounding products, a process-oriented analysis of the dynamic transport of CO and fire plumes during this unprecedented fire disasters will be made in this study. Based on a Principal Component Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) and an optimized estimation retrieval algorithm, a simultaneously retrieval is made using the whole spectral information measured by CrIS, and the derived SiFSAP include temperature, water vapor, trace gases (such as O3, CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O), cloud properties and surface properties. Use of ATMS together with CrIS allows SiFSAP to get accurate retrieval products under thick pyroCb conditions, and an algorithm to detect pyroCb based on the hyperspectral infrared sounder spectrum from CrIS will be developed and verified. In addition to SiFSAP sounding products, other products like CO, O3, NO2 from TROPOMI, O3 from OMPS will be used for retrospective analysis. The wind fields from the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) and ERA5 will be used to characterize the transport, and the SiFSAP temperature and water vapor profiles within and around pyroCbs will be compared with MERRA-2 and ERA5 products.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗

Using GES DISC Data to Study Kilauea Volcano of 2018

Kilauea volcano in Hawaii which erupted in early May 2018 injected massive amount of SO2 and ash into the atmosphere. The lava flow during the eruption destroyed many home and neighborhoods. The SO2 plume during the eruption of Kilauea volcano is analyzed from May to August 2018 using multiple satellite products such as Level 2 TROPspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and Level 3 Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). GES DISC hosts multi-disciplinary Earth science data sets that can be used to analyze natural disasters, such as the Kilauea volcano. Additionally, GES DISC's Giovanni tool can be used to visualize these data. We acquired OMI through the subsetting function, which is processed by the GES DISC in-house developed backend software Level3/4 Regrider and Subsetter (L34RS) and TROPOMI using OPeNDAP.Data from the OMI OMSO2e product showed elevated levels of SO2 amounts during the eruption between May to August 2018. Similarly, ground-based stations at Hawaii Volcanoes National Park recorded higher SO2 concentrations during the same time period. This study uses wind direction from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) to analyze the transport and dispersion of SO2 plume and map lava flows from the volcano using thermal images from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Furthermore, satellite observations combined with socioeconomic and public health data are used to analyze its impact in public health.

KC, Binita↗

Analysis of Launch Vehicle Liftoff Debris: Historical Perspective from Space Shuttle and Application to Artemis I

Human exploration-class launch vehicles are inherently prone to debris due to the extreme environments generated during pre-launch operations, liftoff, and flight. The use of cryogenic propellants often requires thermal protection system (TPS) coatings, typically foam, to maintain the propellant conditions in the tank and prevent an accumulation ice on the external surface of the vehicle. Some ice growth is to be expected at umbilical interfaces, vents, flanges, or brackets where it is difficult to apply TPS. This ice may come loose at any time due to wind on the launch pad, structural vibration and acoustics after rocket ignition, or aerodynamic forces during flight. This phenomena is especially apparent on vehicles with no TPS, such as the Saturn V rockets used in the Apollo Program, see Figure 1. During propellant tanking, the thermal contraction of the underlying substrate may generate cracks in the TPS (Figure 1). Chunks of TPS can release due to the expansion of ingested gas from cryopumping or from aerodynamic forces if the crack creates an offset surface. Most foams will also have a certain amount of “popcorning” where small pieces of foam will pop off during flight because of the differential between the static surface pressure and the pressure of the gas trapped in the foam cell structure. There are a number of other coating or closeout materials that may be shed from the vehicle and become debris. During pre-launch operations and liftoff, the vehicle may also be exposed to debris originating from the launch pad or ground support equipment. This debris is separate from foreign object debris, or FOD, which is not intended to be present and is strictly controlled through operations and maintenance procedures. In this case, debris is generated from hardware and materials that are necessary for launch and are subject to the intense vibration, acoustics, and direct plume impingement of the launch environment. Examples include ice from umbilicals, tape and tie wraps that protect cables, and rust or corrosion from the launch platform. While NASA has historically been aware of debris as a potential issue that could cause a failure resulting in loss of mission, loss of vehicle, or loss of crew, the likelihood and severity of that risk was not always well understood or given sufficient weight in program and flight decisions. After the Space Shuttle Columbia accident (STS-107), the investigation found that foam TPS debris shed from the external tank was the proximate cause of the damage to the orbiter wing. Six previous observations of debris released from the foam ramp that covered the bipod connecting the forward end of the orbiter to the external tank resulted in minor changes or were determined to be accepted flight risks. Two occurrences of bipod ramp foam loss were not identified until the STS-107 investigation. Despite the damage inflicted by these debris strikes, the Shuttle Program Requirements Control Board deemed the vehicle safe to fly. During the Return to Flight effort following the Columbia disaster, NASA Engineering developed a process for the assessment of debris transport, impact, and damage tolerance to support independent assessments of risk by NASA Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA). Under this system, each element (vehicle or ground system) defines a catalog of all expected debris based on launch history, component testing, or analysis. Debris transport analysis (DTA) is conducted using the debris catalog characteristics and potential flow transport mechanisms (e.g., vehicle aerodynamics, gravity, wind, plume-driven). The predicted debris impact locations and velocities are provided to the hardware owners, who use available test data and analysis to determine whether each component can withstand the impacts. In cases where the element hardware may be severely damaged or fail, the options are to mitigate the debris source through some change in design or operation, or to work with S&MA to try to characterize the probability of the impact and damage for program risk acceptance. Because of the differences in debris characteristics and transport, the DTA has been divided between the Liftoff and Ascent regimes. The development and application of Liftoff DTA methodology from the Shuttle Program to the current Artemis Program is the subject of this paper. Liftoff DTA covers the time from the start of pre-launch operations at the launch pad, up until the vehicle clears the launch tower and there is no longer any interaction with ground systems. Debris transport during this period is broadly classified as either gravity, wind, and plume-entrained (GWPE) or plume driven (PD). GWPE debris is generally lower speed, travelling in a forward-to-aft direction. PD transport includes flow features from the rocket ignition transient, as well as plume impingement and recirculation that occur as the vehicle lifts off the launch platform. In these cases, the debris typically moves in an aft-to-forward direction at higher speeds. The applicable transport mechanisms must be considered for each piece of debris depending on the material, and release location and time. For example, rust or metallic debris from the tower could fall (GWPE) and impact the vehicle before landing on the launch platform deck where it could be also be transported by plume impingement (PD). However, falling ice (GWPE) from an umbilical is unlikely to survive impact with the vehicle or launch platform and be available for PD transport. Modeling of debris transport is accomplished using a set of DTA tools which simulate debris trajectories subject to a reference frame acceleration (i.e., gravity) and aerodynamic drag. Where the trajectory encounters a solid surface, the debris is allowed to rebound with a specified coefficient of restitution. The drag is calculated by interpolating the fluid state at each point in the debris trajectory from high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the launch vehicle and pad. The CFD data may either be static (steady state or time averaged), typically for GWPE transport, or dynamic (time-accurate) for PD flow features like the ignition transient. Examples of the CFD flow field solutions for the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and launch pad are shown in Figure 2. Typical SLS debris trajectory predictions from DTA are illustrated in Figure 3. The final version of this paper will include a more detailed examination of the Liftoff DTA process developed during the Shuttle Program, and how it has been augmented and applied to the SLS rocket under the Artemis Program. Comparisons with debris observations from the Artemis I launch will demonstrate validation of the tools and methodology.

Debris↗

In-situ Observations of Mid-latitude Forest Fire Plumes Deep in the Stratosphere

We observed a plume of air highly enriched in carbon monoxide and particles in the stratosphere at altitudes up to 15.8 km. It can be unambiguously attributed to North American forest fires. This plume demonstrates an extratropical direct transport path from the planetary boundary layer several kilometers deep into the stratosphere, which is not fully captured by large-scale atmospheric transport models. This process indicates that the stratospheric ozone layer could be sensitive to changes in forest burning associated with climatic warming.

Jost, Hans-Juerg↗

Aerosol Complexity and Implications for Predictability and Short-Term Forecasting

There are clear NWP and climate impacts from including aerosol radiative and cloud interactions. Changes in dynamics and cloud fields affect aerosol lifecycle, plume height, long-range transport, overall forcing of the climate system, etc. Inclusion of aerosols in NWP systems has benefit to surface field biases (e.g., T2m, U10m). Including aerosol affects has impact on analysis increments and can have statistically significant impacts on, e.g., tropical cyclogenesis. Above points are made especially with respect to aerosol radiative interactions, but aerosol-cloud interaction is a bigger signal on the global system. Many of these impacts are realized even in models with relatively simple (bulk) aerosol schemes (approx.10 -20 tracers). Simple schemes though imply simple representation of aerosol absorption and importantly for aerosol-cloud interaction particle-size distribution. Even so, more complex schemes exhibit a lot of diversity between different models, with issues such as size selection both for emitted particles and for modes. Prospects for complex sectional schemes to tune modal (and even bulk) schemes toward better selection of size representation. I think this is a ripe topic for more research -Systematic documentation of benefits of no vs. climatological vs. interactive (direct and then direct+indirect) aerosols. Document aerosol impact on analysis increments, inclusion in NWP data assimilation operator -Further refinement of baseline assumptions in model design (e.g., absorption, particle size distribution). Did not get into model resolution and interplay of other physical processes with aerosols (e.g., moist physics, obviously important), chemistry

Predictability↗

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River–Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the United States. Along the coast of Oregon and Washington, the most intense cool season precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides and flooding. It is therefore important to understand the large scale influence on extreme AR events so that they can be accurately predicted on timescales ranging from numerical weather prediction to seasonal forecasts. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in observed extreme precipitation events are compared to typical ARs on the coast of Washington State using data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2. In addition to more intense water vapor transport, notable differences in the synoptic scale forcing are present during extreme precipitation events that are not present during typical AR events. In particular, an anomalously deep low pressure system is stationed to the west in the Gulf of Alaska, alongside a jet streak overhead. Attention will also be given to subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns that are known to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. While little influence can be seen from the phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Pacific North American Pattern, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) can play a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated with in AR on the Washington Coast. Lastly, interactions between the MJO and other teleconnection patterns will be explored to determine key features that should be investigated when making subseasonal predictions for AR activity and the associated precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

Collow, Allison↗

Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State

Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as AtmosphericRivers (ARs), are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the UnitedStates. The most intense precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR on the coast ofOregon and Washington and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides andflooding. In order to accurately predict AR events on numerical weather prediction, subseasonal,and seasonal timescales, it is important to understand the large-scale impacts on extreme ARevents. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in an extreme precipitation event are compared totypical ARs on the coast of Washington State. In addition to more intense water vapor transport,notable differences in the synoptic forcing are present during extreme precipitation events thatare not present during typical AR events. Subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns areknown to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest and are investigated here. The MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) plays a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated withan AR on the Washington Coast. Phase 5 of the MJO (convection centered over the maritimecontinent) is the most common phase during an extreme precipitation event, while phase 2(convection over the Indian Ocean) discourages an extreme event from occurring. Interactionsbetween El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the propagation speed of the MJO result inextreme events during phase 1 of the MJO and El Niño but phase 8 during neutral ESNOconditions.

Allison B Marquardt Collow↗

Quantifying the Source Term and Uniqueness of the August 12, 2017 Pacific Northwest PyroCb Event

A pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) firestorm event known as the Pacific Northwest Event (PNE), on August 12, 2017, is examined with a focus on newly reported details of the pyroconvective injections, transport pathway, and young-plume altitude. Because PNE and a subsequent pyroCb event in Australia have been compared to classic stratospheric volcanic plumes, a prime motivation for this work was to exhaustively characterize the beginning of PNE, and to show how it compared to major stratospheric plumes from prior events. We find and report direct evidence that PNE pyroconvection involved seven discrete storms, at least two of which injected a plume to at least 13.7 km, up to 2.5 km above the local tropopause. The morning after, stratospheric smoke was observed above the tropopause to altitudes as great as 16 km. We also quantify for the first time that PNE was preceded by a pyroCb injection one day earlier, generating a plume noteworthy on its own but overwhelmed by the PNE smoke. Our comparison of PNE with five earlier pyroCb events reveals that PNE was not distinctive with respect to its injection and nascent plume height. However, it did produce the greatest known ultraviolet absorbing aerosol index and plume longevity as of 2017.

MISR↗

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗

Space-based Observational Constraints for 1-D Plume Rise Models

We use a space-based plume height climatology derived from observations made by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard the NASA Terra satellite to evaluate the ability of a plume-rise model currently embedded in several atmospheric chemical transport models (CTMs) to produce accurate smoke injection heights. We initialize the plume-rise model with assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System and estimated fuel moisture content at the location and time of the MISR measurements. Fire properties that drive the plume-rise model are difficult to estimate and we test the model with four estimates for active fire area and four for total heat flux, obtained using empirical data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) re radiative power (FRP) thermal anomalies available for each MISR plume. We show that the model is not able to reproduce the plume heights observed by MISR over the range of conditions studied (maximum r2 obtained in all configurations is 0.3). The model also fails to determine which plumes are in the free troposphere (according to MISR), key information needed for atmospheric models to simulate properly smoke dispersion. We conclude that embedding a plume-rise model using currently available re constraints in large-scale atmospheric studies remains a difficult proposition. However, we demonstrate the degree to which the fire dynamical heat flux (related to active fire area and sensible heat flux), and atmospheric stability structure influence plume rise, although other factors less well constrained (e.g., entrainment) may also be significant. Using atmospheric stability conditions, MODIS FRP, and MISR plume heights, we offer some constraints on the main physical factors that drive smoke plume rise. We find that smoke plumes reaching high altitudes are characterized by higher FRP and weaker atmospheric stability conditions than those at low altitude, which tend to remain confined below the BL, consistent with earlier results. We propose two simplified parameterizations for computing injection heights for fires in CTMs and discuss current challenges to representing plume injection heights in large scale atmospheric models.

Martin, Maria Val↗

Multiphase Simulations of the SLS Launch Environment

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), which will send astronauts back to the Moon in the next few years, is powered by four RS-25 engines and two RSRMV solid rocket boosters (SRBs). During launch the SLS propulsion system generates intense acoustics and other powerful waves, such as ignition overpressure (IOP) which, if unmitigated, have the potential to damage the vehicle and possibly cause loss of mission or crew. To protect the vehicle from these powerful waves, the SLS launch pad design includes an ignition overpressure/sound suppression (IOP/SS) system which sprays 270,000 gallons per minute of water very close to the SRB and RS-25 nozzles. The SRB and RS-25 engine plumes, and the proximity of the IOP/SS water, create a complex multiphase (gas and liquid) environment during the SLS ignition sequence. The interplay among these systems creates challenges related to water spray into/onto engine nozzles, potential debris transport, and additional transient loads due to strong plume-water interactions - all of which the SLS vehicle must be able to withstand. Prior to the Artemis I launch, the SLS multiphase liftoff environment was largely unknown due to differences from the Space Shuttle and other programs. Some data was available from tests of individual systems, but no integrated testing or analysis was available. Even post-launch analysis of Artemis I cannot provide a full understanding of the complex physics involved due to limited (or obstructed) camera views and instrumentation. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is being used to investigate the details of the multiphase environment which could not be measured, help comprehend the data gathered from the launch, and ultimately identify phenomena that are a concern for future flights. Project Details Engineers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have executed simulations using the Loci/STREAM-Volume of Fluid (VoF) multiphase CFD solver to understand this environment. Initial efforts successfully validated the CFD solver on various tests, giving confidence to simulate the SLS multiphase liftoff environment prior to the Artemis I launch. The CFD simulation of the SLS ignition sequence was conducted in three phases. First the IOP/SS water system was simulated for approximately 6 seconds to reach a quasi-steady state. Next, the RS-25 engine plumes were activated and held at full power for 1 second. Lastly, the SRB booster was activated and the simulation was carried out until just prior to vehicle motion. This simulation process mimics the conditions that exist at launch. Results and Impact The SLS ignition sequence simulation results provide deep understanding of the underlying physics occuring during launch. Observations from the simulation include reduction of water splashing into/onto the engine nozzles, change in angling of the dense water sheets, and the origin of the powerful ignition overpressure (IOP) wave. These observations directly inform the SLS program on subjects including plume-water induced side loads, debris transport, and the acoustic launch environment. Additionally, with post launch comparison of CFD observations to flight data, these tools can be applied to launch vehicles and environments other than SLS with confidence. Why HPC Matters The SLS ignition sequence CFD simulations are conducted on meshes up to hundreds of millions of cells on thousands of processors for weeks at a time. These simulations generate terabytes of data that must also be stored and archived for future use on HPC systems. Simply put, the CFD simulations would not be possible without NASA HPC resources. What’s Next Comparisons between the Artemis I flight data and the CFD simulations will be continued to both improve confidence in the CFD results and provide deeper understanding into the SLS multiphase launch environment. This will be used to provide insight for decision making for the first manned SLS flight, Artemis II. Future simulations will target new configurations of the SLS IOP/SS water required to support the more powerful variants of the SLS vehicle, such as Block 1B. Additionally, this capability provides NASA the ability to investigate launch environments for vehicles other than SLS to support other missions.

Travis Rivord↗

Satellite Perspective of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport: From Qualitative Tracking to Quantitative Characterization

Evidence of aerosol intercontinental transport (ICT) is both widespread and compelling. Model simulations suggest that ICT could significantly affect regional air quality and climate, but the broad inter-model spread of results underscores a need of constraining model simulations with measurements. Satellites have inherent advantages over in situ measurements to characterize aerosol ICT, because of their spatial and temporal coverage. Significant progress in satellite remote sensing of aerosol properties during the Earth Observing System (EOS) era offers opportunity to increase quantitative characterization and estimates of aerosol ICT, beyond the capability of pre-EOS era satellites that could only qualitatively track aerosol plumes. EOS satellites also observe emission strengths and injection heights of some aerosols, aerosol precursors, and aerosol-related gases, which can help characterize aerosol ICT. After an overview of these advances, we review how the current generation of satellite measurements have been used to (1) characterize the evolution of aerosol plumes (e.g., both horizontal and vertical transport, and properties) on an episodic basis, (2) understand the seasonal and inter-annual variations of aerosol ICT and their control factors, (3) estimate the export and import fluxes of aerosols, and (4) evaluate and constrain model simulations. Substantial effort is needed to further explore an integrated approach using measurements from on-orbit satellites (e.g., A-Train synergy) for observational characterization and model constraint of aerosol intercontinental transport and to develop advanced sensors for future missions.

Yu, Hongbin↗

Evidence of restricted heat transport in National Ignition Facility Hohlraums

We present experimental evidence of restricted electron thermal conduction in the high-Z coronal plasma regions of laser-driven Hohlraums on the National Ignition Facility. Four separate measurements, three of which are direct observations of Hohlraum dynamics, corroborate this finding. (1) The velocity of the coronal plasma ablated and heated by the outer-cone laser beams is determined by time-dependent imaging of the gold plasma plume, or “bubble.” The velocities of the incoming plume (perpendicular to the Hohlraum axis) are consistent with high-fidelity 2D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations using flux-limited thermal electron conduction with a flux multiplier f = 0.03. Simulations using f = 0.15, which is very nearly classical Spitzer–Härm transport, predict plume velocities slower than measured. (2) Specific features in time-resolved images of the Hohlraum wall at an angle of 19° are also more consistent with f = 0.03 simulations compared to f = 0.15. (3) Spectroscopic tracers were added to the Hohlraum wall in the outer-beam bubble region. The ratios of hydrogen-like to helium-like line emission are sensitive to the electron temperature of the bubble. The hydrogen-like to helium-like ratios extracted from the time-integrated spectra of manganese and cobalt tracers from two observation angles are consistent with f = 0.03 and not with f = 0.15. (4) The time of peak capsule emission, or “bang time,” an integrated measurement, is also more consistent with f = 0.03 than with f = 0.15. Overall, while these findings do not identify the causes of restricted thermal conduction in Hohlraums, they motivate future experiments to test specific hypotheses and focus on model development in the regions of the plasma exhibiting restricted transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Contrasting Stratospheric Smoke Mass and Lifetime From 2017 Canadian and 2019/2020 Australian Megafires: Global Simulations and Satellite Observations

Stratospheric injections of carbonaceous aerosols and combustion gases by extreme wildfires have become increasingly common. Recent “megafires,” particularly large and intense fires, delivered particulate burdens to the lower stratosphere comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions. The 2017 Canadian megafire generated four large Pyrocumulonimbi (pyroCbs), injecting up to ≈0.3 Tg of smoke in the lower stratosphere. Even more extreme, the 2019/2020 Australian event produced a pyroCb activity resulting in stratospheric smoke intrusions of ≈1 Tg. To understand their contrasting behavior, we present global climate simulations of the atmospheric response to these events, applying smoke burdens informed by remote observations. Model outcomes, compared to satellite data of smoke transport, reproduce reasonably well the initial plume rise, at 0.2–0.3 km/day, attaining heights of ≈20 km in Canada and above 30 km in Australia. Global dispersal of the plume occurs within about 3 weeks in both cases, consistent with observations. Smoke removal timescales, ≈5 months for the Canadian megafire, agree with remote measurements. During the Australian megafire, observations indicate stratospheric injections three times as large, and models predict comparatively longer smoke lifetimes, ≈16 months. After the latter event, atmospheric optical depths and radiative cooling achieved values close to those measured following the Pinatubo eruption. Sensitivity tests of model assumptions indicate, in accord with prior studies, that smoke burden, injection heights, and black carbon content can determine plume evolution and possible climate impacts. An empirical relation between peak heights of stratospheric plumes and lifetimes is derived that can help assess megafire impacts on the stratosphere, climate and the Earth system

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hanford Site Composite Analysis: Comparison of One- and Three-Dimensional Simulation of Vadose Zone Transport and Transfer to Groundwater for Selected Waste Sites

The purpose of this document is to compare 1D and 3D technetium-99 (Tc-99) VZ transport and transfer rates to groundwater for five selected waste sites (two tanks, two cribs, and one trench) to demonstrate the need to consider 3D flow and transport mechanisms and commingling of contaminant plumes originating from adjacent waste sites. The waste sites selected for the comparison evaluation are the 241-A-105 Tank in the A Farms Area model, the 216-B-18 Crib and the 216-B-25 Trench in the BC Cribs and Trenches model, the 216-B-49 Crib in the B Complex model, and the 241-SX-115 Tank in the S Farms Area model. The selected waste sites all represent different disposal or leak conditions, with and without potential impacts due to release-fluid commingling, occurring at the Hanford Site Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The QUIC Start Guide (V.6.4.9)

QUIC stands for the Quick Urban & Industrial Complex (QUIC) dispersion modeling system. QUIC is a fast response urban dispersion model that runs on a laptop. QUIC is comprised of a 3D wind field model called QUIC-URB, a transport and dispersion model called QUIC-PLUME, and graphical user interface called QUIC-GUI. QUIC also includes QUIC-PRESSURE to solve for pressure fields in and around buildings, a population exposure assessment tool called QUIC-POP, and an indoor infiltration calculator for computing indoor concentrations. Transport and dispersion for different types of airborne contaminants can be computed on building to neighborhood scales in tens of seconds to tens of minutes. QUIC will never give perfect answers, but it will account for the effects of buildings in an approximate way and provide more realism than non-building aware dispersion models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Aerospace remote sensing of the coastal zone for water quality and biotic productivity applications

Remote sensing can provide the wide area synoptic coverage of surface waters which is required for studies of such phenomena as river plume mixing, phytoplankton dynamics, and pollutant transport and fate, but which is not obtainable by conventional oceanographic techniques. The application of several remote sensors (aircraftborne and spacecraftborne multispectral scanners, passive microwave radiometers, and active laser systems) to coastal zone research is discussed. Current measurement capabilities (particulates, chlorophyll a, temperature, salinity, ocean dumped materials, other pollutants, and surface winds and roughness) are defined and the results of recent remote sensing experiments conducted in the North Atlantic coastal zone are presented. The future development of remote sensing must rely on an integrated laboratory research program in optical physics. Recent results indicate the potential for separation of particulates into subsets by remote sensors.

Pritchard, E. B.↗

Development of a global model for atmospheric backscatter at CO2 wavelengths

The effect of aerosol microphysical processes on the backscatter from an aerosol plume undergoing long-range atmospheric transport was studied. A numerical model which examines the effects of coagulation and sedimentation on an aerosol size distribution is under development and the initial results for a single homogeneous layer were obtained. Use was made of the SAGE/SAM II data set to study the global variation of aerosol concentration and, hence, to predict the variation of Beta sub CO2. Computer programs were written to determine the mean, median, and the probability distribution of the measured aerosol extinction as a function of altitude, latitude and geographical conditions. The first data sets analyzed in this way are under study. Data was used to study aerosol behavior over the U.S.A. and the Pacific Ocean.

Kent, G. S.↗