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Quantifying Uncertainties in Nighttime Light Retrievals From Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS Day/Night Band Data

Satellite observations of nighttime lights (NTL) from Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS Day/Night Band data have been widely used to estimate human activities. Long-term changes such as urban development and abrupt short-term changes such as power outages have been monitored from temporal NTL acquired by satellites. While high temporal NTL variation has been found across NTL data of varying temporal scale (e.g., daily, monthly, and annual composites), the sources of measurement error and uncertainty are poorly understood. This paper quantifies the sources of VIIRS-derived NTL uncertainty due to view-illumination geometry, surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF)/albedo, and the effects of snow cover, lunar irradiance, aerosol loading, cloud mask, vegetation, geometry, and ephemeral artifacts (e.g., the Aurora Borealis). Based on this current assessment of NASA Black Marble retrievals (VNP46, Collection V001), we found that angular and atmospheric effects dominate retrieval uncertainty. Errors introduced by upstream data inputs (e.g., a coarser nighttime snow cover flag and misclassification errors in the existing VIIRS nighttime cloud mask) were also found to impact retrieval quality. Despite these challenges, a consistent daily NTL time series record can be routinely generated from top-of-atmosphere VNP46 radiances. Key recommendations include: (1) the use of lunar-BRDF adjusted and atmospherically corrected NTL (i.e., as identified as high-quality retrievals in the VNP46 QA fields), (2) development and improvement to the VIIRS snow cover and cloud masks algorithms to accurately reflect NTL retrieval conditions, (3) characterizing seasonal variations in NTL due to vegetation and snow, (4) reducing geometric effects due to the spatial mismatch of gridded pixel and observation footprint, (5) employing angularly-consistent NTL observations from multiple VIIRS instruments (i.e., Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20) to reduce pixel-based uncertainties and address persistent data gaps, and (6) being mindful of surface-reflected radiance from aurora events at mid-to-high latitudes.

Zhuosen Wang↗

Launch Complex 34, SWMU Cc054 2021 DNAPL Source Zone Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring, and Hot Spot 6 Air Sparge System Annual Performance Monitoring Report Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

This Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) for the Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) Source Zone (DSZ) and Hot Spot 6 (HS 6) Air Sparge (AS) System presents the results of Year 12 operation of the hydraulic containment (HC) Interim Measure (IM), the results of performance monitoring direct-push technology (DPT) sampling and monitoring well sampling conducted in the DSZ, and the results of operations and performance sampling of the HS 6 AS IM at Launch Complex 34 (LC34), located at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS), Florida. Site-wide biennial LTM sampling was not conducted during this reporting period and is scheduled to be conducted in December 2022. The timeframe for activities documented in this PMR extends from April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022. LC34 has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit CC054 under the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. The objective of the HC IM at LC34 is to contain the DSZ and deep dissolved-phase trichloroethene (TCE) high concentration plume via operation of a hydraulic containment system (HCS). The pre-IM design 300 micrograms per liter (μg/L) TCE groundwater contour was used to establish the deep zone capture area for deep recovery wells, and the shallow zone capture area was defined by the DSZ. The system began operating in 2010, and in 2015, the system was expanded to provide HC for areas within the 300 μg/L TCE groundwater isocontours of HS 3 and 4. In 2018 and 2019, an investigation was conducted to re-characterize the DSZ, which included investigating TCE mass in Layer 7. This data was subsequently used to optimize the pumping rates of the HCS to more adequately capture residual contaminant mass. The operational period for Year 12 of the HCS was from April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022. Operational runtime for the system was 94 percent during Year 12, with downtime events attributed to planned maintenance, system repairs, and power outages. As of March 31, 2022, a total of 285,712,801 gallons of groundwater containing 84,933 pounds of VOCs have been removed by the HCS. Influent concentrations of TCE have decreased since startup from approximately 280,000 µg/L (January 2010) to 12,000 µg/L (March 2022). During the reporting period, all effluent concentrations from the HCS (aqueous and vapor) were below regulatory reporting limits, indicating the system continues to operate as intended. Performance monitoring was conducted in December 2021 within the DSZ to evaluate TCE contamination. Groundwater samples were collected via DPT at nine locations, consistent with previous events in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. Full vertical profile sampling was completed at each DPT from 8 to 98 ft bls, at 5 foot intervals. The DPT performance monitoring results are summarized in this PMR. The results revealed TCE remains at concentrations greater than 11,000 µg/L in the DSZ (1-percent solubility, indicative of DNAPL) at eight of the nine DPT locations at depths ranging from 8 to 98 ft bls. An overall increasing trend of TCE concentrations was observed in DPT samples during this reporting period, which may be due to several recovery wells that were turned off during the AS Pilot Study in the DSZ that operated from July 2021 to February 2022 (documented separately from this report). The maximum TCE concentration in 2021 was 15,400,000 µg/L in the 58 ft bls depth interval at DPT597 (previous maximum result in 2020 was 1,690,000 at 48 ft bls at DPT596). During the 2021 DPT event, the overall majority of TCE contamination was identified in the 58 ft bls interval (below Layer 4), where in the previous year the majority of mass was observed in Layer 4. This trend appears to indicate continued mass discharge from Layer 4 (fine-grained unit). In addition to DPT sampling, monitoring well samples were collected from deep wells in the DSZ area (Layers 7 and 8) to verify vertical delineation. All monitoring well results were non-detect or below cleanup levels, with exception of one well (IW0162, screened 105 to 115 ft bls, which is below the existing recovery well capture zone) where TCE was identified above cleanup target levels. The HS 6 AS system remained operational during the reporting period covered under this report. The HS 6 AS IM was initiated in 2018 with 160 AS wells, and expanded in 2019 with an additional 140 AS wells. Quarterly performance monitoring was reduced to semi-annual prior to this operational period. The results of the HS 6 system operation and semi-annual performance monitoring are summarized in this report. Semi-annual monitoring results collected in April and October 2021 show concentrations of contaminants of concern (cis-1,2-dichloroethene, trans-1,2- dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride) are generally decreasing and not impacting the surface water drainage canal, indicating the HS 6 IM is meeting objectives. Overall, the tasks associated with Year 12 operation of the HC IM and operation of the HS 6 AS IM were performed in accordance with the recommendations of the 2020 LC34 (Year 11) Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring Report for DNAPL Source Zone, Site Wide LongTerm Monitoring, and Hot Spot 6 Air Sparging System PMR (NASA, 2021c). Evaluation of results from the HC IM and HS 6 IM show that these systems are operating as designed and meeting performance objectives.

trichloroethene↗

Cubespark: A New Satellite-Based 3d Lightning Observing Concept

Legacy and current space-based optical lightning detectors are insensitive to small and dim pulses that make up much of the lightning activity produced by severe storms. Moreover, lightning flashes produced at low altitudes within optically thick clouds are severely under-detected by current optical detectors. Lastly, there is currently no capability to characterize the 3D structure of lightning both day and night at the global scale, yet this information is critical for identifying lightning produced in updraft regions, including lightning occurring in overshooting tops, which is a distinctive signature of severe weather. Global 3D lightning information is also critical for understanding the vertical distribution of NOx production and identifying anomalously electrified storms. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of lightning has implications for how microphysical (e.g., ice-based) and thermodynamical (e.g., latent heat release) processes vary regionally, as well as seasonally – e.g., winter lightning typically occurs at lower altitudes than summer lightning and is often associated with tall, man-made structures. Finally, global-scale 3D lightning observations would directly provide flash type (i.e., CG or IC) information that is very useful in all of the studies mentioned in this paragraph and is fundamental in identifying/documenting deleterious CG-caused impacts (e.g., wildfires, power-outages, crop and property damage, and associated insurance claims). A new, satellite mission concept called CubeSpark is being designed to address these shortcomings and fill this measurement gap by providing novel 3D observations of total lightning activity. CubeSpark will utilize a constellation of low-Earth orbiting small satellites that make radio frequency (RF) and bi-spectral optical measurements of lightning. Two options for combining these measurements to retrieve the 3D location of lightning are considered with corresponding measurement simulators built to understand the level of detail and viability of each approach. Although the level of detail varies for each combined measurement approach, results indicate that a 3D location accuracy of < 1-2 km in each dimension is feasible across 300-500 km wide swaths, which suggests that CubeSpark can resolve the charge structure of thunderclouds from the tropics to the mid- and high-latitudes.

lightning↗

Space Weather: From Solar Origins to Risks and Hazards Evolving in Time

Space Weather is the portion of space physics that has a direct effect onhumankind. Space Weather is an old branch of space physics that originatesback to 1808 with the publication of a paper by the great naturalist Alexandervon Humboldt (Von Humboldt, Ann. Phys. 1808, 29, 425–429),first defining a“Magnetische Ungewitter”or magnetic storm from auroral observations fromhis home in Berlin, Germany. Space Weather is currently experiencing explosivegrowth, because its effects on human technologies have become more andmore diverse. Space Weather is due to the variability of solar processes thatcause interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric and groundlevel effects. Space Weather can at times have strong impacts on technologicalsystems and human health. The threats and risks are not hypothetical, and in theevent of extreme Space Weather events the consequences could be quitesevere for humankind. The purpose of the review is to give a brief overall view ofthe full chain of physical processes responsible for Space Weather risks andhazards, tracing them from solar origins to effects and impacts in interplanetaryspace, in the Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere and at the ground. Inaddition, the paper shows that the risks associated with Space Weather have notbeen constant over time; they have evolved as our society becomes more andmore technologically advanced. The paper begins with a brief introduction tothe Carrington event, arguably the greatest geomagnetic storm in recordedhistory. Next, the descriptions of the strongest known Space Weather processesare reviewed, tracing them from their solar origins. The concepts ofgeomagnetic storms and substorms are briefly introduced. The main effects/impacts of Space Weather are also considered, including geomagneticallyinduced currents (GICs) which are thought to cause power outages. Theeffects of radiation on avionics and human health, ionospheric effects andimpacts, and thermosphere effects and satellite drag will also be discussed.Finally, we will discuss the current challenges of Space Weather forecasting andexamine some of the worst-case scenarios.

Natalia Buzulukova↗

Launch Complex 34, SWMU CCO542022 DNAPL Source Zone Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring, Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring, and Hot Spot 6 Air Sparge System Annual Performance Monitoring Report Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

This Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) for the Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) Source Zone (DSZ), Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring (LTM), and Hot Spot (HS) 6 Air Sparge (AS) System presents the results of Year 13 operation of the hydraulic containment (HC) Interim Measure (IM), the results of performance monitoring direct-push technology (DPT) sampling and monitoring well sampling conducted in the DSZ, results of the biennial site-wide LTM event, and the results of operations and performance sampling of the HS 6 AS IM at Launch Complex 34 (LC34), located at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS), Florida. This site has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) CC054 under the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. For the site-wide biennial LTM event, a total of 55 monitoring wells were sampled for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in February 2023 and one well was sampled for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in December 2022. One well planned for VOC sampling was found to be destroyed and could not be sampled (CW0002). The LTM wells are screened in two lithologic zones: Layer 1 (0 to 25 feet below land surface [bls]) and Layer 2 (25 to 30 ft bls), and are located in the outlying areas of LC34 to monitor groundwater conditions within the Low-Concentration Plume (LCP), defined as concentrations exceeding Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels (GCTLs), and the High-Concentration Plume (HCP), defined as concentrations exceeding Natural Attenuation Default Concentrations (NADCs). Results from the biennial sampling event indicated overall plume stability and delineation for the plume, which extends over 300 acres. The operational period for Year 13 of the HCS was from April 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023. Operational runtime for the system was 90 percent during Year 13, with downtime events attributed to planned maintenance, system repairs, and power outages. As of March 31, 2023, a total of 313,673,241 cumulative gallons of groundwater containing 88,337 pounds of VOCs have been removed by the HCS. Influent concentrations of trichloroethene (TCE) have decreased since startup from approximately 280,000 μg/L (January 2010) to 12,000 μg/L (March 2023). During the reporting period, all effluent concentrations from the HCS (aqueous and vapor) were below regulatory reporting limits, indicating the system continues to operate as intended. Performance monitoring was conducted in December 2022 within the DSZ to evaluate TCE contamination. Groundwater samples were collected via DPT at nine locations, consistent with previous events between 2017 and 2021. Full vertical profile sampling was completed at each DPT from 8 to 98 feet bls, at 5-foot intervals. The DPT performance monitoring results are summarized in this PMR. The results revealed TCE remains at concentrations greater than 11,000 μg/L in the DSZ (1-percent solubility, indicative of DNAPL) at eight of the nine DPT locations and at depths ranging from 8 to 98 feet bls. In addition to DPT sampling, groundwater samples were collected from deep monitoring wells in the DSZ area (Layers 7 and 8) in December 2022 to verify vertical delineation. Layer 7/8 monitoring well results were non-detect in December 2022, with exception of three wells (IW0162, IW043D2, and IW044D2), where TCE, cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), and/or vinyl chloride (VC) were detected above GCTLs. These wells are screened 105 to 115 feet bls, which is below the existing recovery well capture zone. TCE was first detected in IW0162 in December 2021 and has since been sampled at least monthly to monitor TCE concentrations. The maximum TCE concentration during this operational period was 15,000 μg/L at IW0162 in March 2023. Because of the increased TCE concentrations in this well, a new recovery well (RW21D), screened 86 to 106 feet bls, was installed in January 2023 and incorporated into existing HCS operations. The HS 6 AS IM was initiated in 2018 with 160 AS wells, and expanded in 2019 with an additional 140 AS wells. Quarterly performance monitoring was reduced to semi-annual in 2020. The HS 6 AS system remained operational during the reporting period covered under this report. The results of the HS 6 system operation and semi-annual performance monitoring are summarized in this report. Semi-annual monitoring results collected in April and October 2022 show concentrations of contaminants of concern (cDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride) are generally decreasing and not impacting the surface water drainage canal, indicating the HS 6 IM is meeting objectives. A Phase Two Expansion of the HS 6 AS IM was recently completed. As of the date of this report, the expansion became operational in August 2023 and the first quarter of monitoring was conducted in November 2023. Details of the construction, start-up, and performance monitoring will be included in a future Annual PMR. Overall, the tasks associated with Year 13 operation of the HC IM, operation of the HS 6 AS IM, and biennial site-wide sampling were performed in accordance with recommendations included in the previous 2021 LC34 (Year 12) annual report. Evaluation of results from the HC IM and HS 6 IM show that these systems are operating as designed and meeting performance objectives. Results from the site-wide biennial LTM program also show that the overall network of monitoring wells is adequate to continue monitoring plume-wide conditions.

Complex 34↗

Launch Complex 34, SWMU CC054 2023 DNAPL Source Zone Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring, Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring, and Hot Spot 6 Air Sparge System Annual Performance Monitoring and Phase Two Expansion Construction Completion Report Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

This Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) for the Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) Source Zone (DSZ), Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring (LTM), and Hot Spot 6 (HS 6) Air Sparge (AS) System presents the results of Year 14 operations and performance monitoring of the hydraulic containment (HC) Interim Measure (IM), details associated with construction and implementation of the HS 6 AS system expansion (Phase Two), and the results of operations and performance sampling of the HS 6 AS IM at Launch Complex 34 (LC34), located at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS), Florida. The timeframe for activities documented in this PMR extends from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024. LC34 has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit CC054 under the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. The objective of the HC IM at LC34 is to contain the shallow and deep DSZ and surrounding dissolved-phase trichloroethene (TCE) high concentration plume via operation of a hydraulic containment system (HCS). The pre-IM design 300 micrograms per liter (μg/L) TCE groundwater contour was used to establish the deep zone capture area for deep recovery wells, and the shallow zone capture area was defined by the DSZ. The system began operating in 2010, and in 2015, the system was expanded to provide HC for areas within the 300 μg/L TCE groundwater isocontours of HS 3 and 4. In 2018 and 2019, an investigation was conducted to recharacterize the DSZ, which included investigating TCE mass in Layer 7. This data was subsequently used to optimize the pumping rates of the HCS and install additional recovery wells in Layer 7 to more adequately capture residual contaminant mass. The operational period for Year 14 of the HCS was from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024. Operational runtime for the system was 94 percent during Year 14, with downtime events attributed to planned maintenance, system repairs, and power outages. As of March 31, 2024, a total of 344,849,634 cumulative gallons of groundwater containing 94,656 pounds of chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) have been removed by the HCS. During the reporting period covered under this report, the HCS recovered 31,176,393 gallons and approximately 6,319 pounds of CVOC mass. Total combined influent concentrations of TCE have decreased since startup from approximately 280,000 µg/L (January 2010) to 25,000 µg/L (March 2024). During the reporting period, all effluent concentrations from the HCS (aqueous and vapor) were below regulatory reporting limits, indicating the system continues to operate as intended. Performance monitoring was conducted in January 2024 within the DSZ to evaluate TCE contamination. Groundwater samples were collected via DPT at nine locations, consistent with previous events between 2017 and 2022. Full vertical profile sampling was completed at each DPT from 8 to 98 feet below land surface (bls), at 5-foot intervals. The DPT performance monitoring results are summarized in this PMR. The results revealed TCE remains at concentrations greater than 11,000 µg/L in the DSZ (1-percent solubility, indicative of DNAPL) at eight of the nine DPT locations and at depths ranging from 28 to 98 feet bls. An overall decreasing trend of TCE concentrations was observed in DPT samples during this reporting period, which is a reduction from the previous event (December 2022) and the peak event in December 2021, where TCE percentages appeared to increase in all depth zones because several recovery wells were turned off during the AS pilot study in the DSZ. The maximum TCE concentration in January 2024 was 1,600,000 µg/L in the 53 feet bls depth interval at DPT594 (previous maximum result in 2022 was 1,800,000 µg/L in the 48 feet bls depth interval at DPT599). This maximum concentration in the 53 feet bls depth interval is in the deep capture zone. During the January 2024 DPT event, the largest portion of TCE mass was observed in the 48 feet bls interval above/within Layer 4. This trend remains consistent with previous years and appears to indicate continued mass discharge from Layer 4 (fine-grained unit). In addition to DPT sampling, annual groundwater samples were collected from 11 deep monitoring wells in the DSZ area (Layers 7 and 8) in December 2023 to verify vertical and horizontal delineation. Three of the wells were also sampled biweekly to evaluate operations of recovery well RW21D (screened 86 to 106 feet bls), which was installed in January 2023. Of the Layer 7/8 monitoring sampled only annually, results were non-detect or less than groundwater cleanup target levels GCTLs in December 2023, with the exception of one well, IW45D2, which had a cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), detection greater than the GCTL. Of the three wells sampled biweekly during the operational period, the well located closest to Layer 7 recovery well RW21D (IW44D2, screened 105 to 115 feet bls) had concentrations of TCE, cDCE and vinyl chloride (VC) greater than GCTLs throughout the operational period, but displayed a decreasing trend since the peak concentrations in September 2023. The maximum TCE concentration during this operational period was 190,000 µg/L at IW44D2 in September 2023, but reduced to 700 µg/L in March 2024, indicating the HCS is still effectively removing mass from the source area. Expansion of the HCS and addition of new recovery wells is ongoing and will continue to be evaluated as the groundwater recovery scheme is optimized. Details of the expansion and optimization will be provided in a future PMR. The HS 6 AS IM was initiated in 2018 with 160 AS wells and expanded in 2019 with another 140 AS wells. An additional expansion of the HS 6 AS IM was completed during the reporting period covered under this report and details of the construction implementation and startup of the expansion are detailed in Section III of this report. The new expansion, referred to as Phase Two, was implemented between August 17, 2022 and August 28, 2023, and included the installation of 190 air sparge wells to treat an additional 11.2 acres. The original configuration (referred to as Phase One) operated until Phase Two came online, then all but 52 AS wells were turned off so the components could be moved and utilized in the Phase Two area. The 52 AS wells that remain on are in a barrier configuration preventing contaminated groundwater from impacting the treated area. The HS 6 AS system (both Phase One and Two) operated normally during the reporting period covered under this report. Semi-annual performance monitoring of the Phase One configuration was conducted in April and November 2023, consistent with previous years. For the Phase Two configuration, 21 new monitoring wells were installed and sampled quarterly, with a baseline event in July 2023, and quarterly events in November 2023 and February 2024 summarized in this report. Semi-annual monitoring results collected in April and October 2023 show concentrations of contaminants of concern (cDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and VC) have decreased to less than GCTLs in nearly all wells and not impacting the surface water drainage canal, indicating the HS 6 IM continues to meet objectives. The baseline and quarterly sampling for the Phase Two configuration indicate generally decreasing concentrations in wells within and around the perimeter of the treatment area. At least two more quarters of monitoring will be conducted and once those results are evaluated a reduced the sampling frequency may be considered. Overall, the tasks associated with Year 14 operation of the HC IM and operation of the HS 6 AS IM were performed in accordance with recommendations included in the previous 2022 LC34 (Year 13) PMR. Evaluation of results from the HC IM and HS 6 IM show that these systems are operating as designed and meeting performance objectives.

groundwater remediation↗

Sabathani Community Center Solar + Battery Resilience Hub

To meet south Minneapolis, Minnesota's clean energy goals, the community exploring opportunities to transition Sabathani Community Center into a resilience hub to provide critical community services during power outages, including shelter and warmth or cooling, continued food distribution services, and more. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, through the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) pilot, worked with Sabathani to quantify the costs and benefits of installing stand-alone solar photovoltaics (PV) and PV paired with battery systems to reduce energy costs, avoid emissions, and improve resilience.

battery energy storage system↗

Minneapolis American Indian Center Solar + Battery Resilience Hub

To meet south Minneapolis, Minnesota's clean energy goals, the community exploring opportunities to transition Minneapolis American Indian Center (MAIC) into a resilience hub to provide critical community services during power outages, including shelter and warmth or cooling, continued food distribution services, and more. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, through the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) pilot, worked with MAIC to quantify the costs and benefits of installing stand-alone solar photovoltaics (PV) and PV paired with battery systems to reduce energy costs, avoid emissions, and improve resilience.

BESS↗

Guidance on EPAct section 707 Emergency Repair and Restoration Vehicle Exclusions: EPAct State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program Guidance Document

Section 707 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct 2005) amended section 301(9)(E) of EPAct 1992 by adding to the list of vehicles excluded from the definition of "fleet" a new subcategory of emergency motor vehicles, i.e., "vehicles directly used in the emergency repair of transmission lines and in the restoration of electricity service following power outages, as determined by the Secretary." Like other excluded vehicles, these light-duty vehicles (LDVs) do not count (1) when determining whether a fleet is covered under the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program (Program), and (2) for fleets that are covered under the Program, when calculating annual alternative fuel vehicle (AFV)-acquisition requirements. If AFV models of excluded vehicles are acquired, however, a fleet may count them toward their acquisition requirement by including them in the calculation of the number of AFVs acquired. Exclusion Process.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Technical Assistance for Aquinnah and Chilmark, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts

The Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP) team worked with Aquinnah and Chilmark, two towns in Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, to develop strategies for a microgrid system that would enhance energy reliability for essential community buildings during power outages.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A resource adequacy assessment of correlated wide-area outages in the power grid

As the power grid is undergoing rapid transformations, numerous questions are emerging about its vulnerability to wide-area extreme events (WAEE), which could influence its operations. Relatively few analyses have been conducted to date regarding the impact of correlated outages during WAEEs on the grid’s ability to balance resources with demand. This study addresses this gap by conducting a resource adequacy analysis for a hurricane-inspired WAEE on a 2035 synthetic power grid system for the United States. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to characterize the relative impact of weather on unserved energy. Our results indicate that although the magnitude and duration of the shortfalls vary depending on weather conditions, persistent shortfalls are observed in some regions. Initial explorations indicate a strong correlation between transmission-constrained regions and regions with persistent shortfalls. Future work could generate empirically-grounded representations for generator outages as well as conduct causal analyses of these shortfalls to improve understanding of drivers as well as possible mitigation strategies. Continued exploration of extreme weather impacts on the grid is important to develop more robust understanding of the reliability and resilience of our power systems, especially as they undergo rapid transformations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparing Interaction Graphs on Cascading Outages under Different Loading Conditions

Interaction graphs on cascading outages of power systems provide valuable insights into how cascading outages evolve and propagate, and which components and links are critical to the propagation of cascading outages, enabling further development of mitigation strategies to support decision-making. However, the sensitivity of the interaction graph’s topology to the system’s loading condition has not been studied sufficiently. This paper compared interaction graphs under various loading conditions on the Northeastern Power Coordinating Council 140-bus system, and discovers the strong relationships between the graph topology, the cascade size distribution, and the load condition. Accordingly, three representative interaction graphs are constructed and illustrated.

Guo, Zhenping↗

A Hybrid Dynamic/Steady-State Tool With Protection Simulation for Cascading-Outage Analysis of Extreme Events in Power Systems

The bulk electric power grid is subject to vulnerabilities from component outages, which in certain combinations (extreme events) might lead to cascading outages. Some of these outages can be severe enough to trigger brownouts and blackouts. Much is known about mitigating the first few failures near the beginning of a cascade, but there are few established methods and tools for directly analyzing the risks of cascading component outages over a longer time scale. Current power system tools have limited ability to perform detailed and accurate cascading-outage analysis, which could be computationally intensive. The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) enables power system planning engineers to more realistically assess the consequences of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT has several unique features: (i) detailed hybrid dynamic and steady-state analysis of power systems to mimic real-world cascading outages, (ii) detailed modeling of protection systems embedded in the dynamic simulation, (iii) simulation of corrective action after transients, (iv) simulation of islanding , and (v) high-performance computing capability to simulate a large number of contingencies in a reasonable time. DCAT outputs will help find technically sound solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages. This paper provides details of DCAT methodology and shows its capabilities with extreme events on real-world cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The NASA Disasters Response Coordination System’s (DRCS) Response to the 2024 Hurricane Season

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Disasters Response Coordination System (DRCS) leverages the best available science and expertise to aid federal, state, local, and non-governmental organization (NGO) partners in addressing identified needs during a disaster response. During the 2024 hurricane season, the DRCS activated for seven hurricanes/tropical storms, providing openly available geospatial data through NASA’s Disasters Mapping Portal. Hurricanes Helene and Milton were major hurricanes that impacted the southeastern United States within weeks of one another. Impacts from Helene and Milton to the region included inland flooding, record coastal storm surge, over a thousand landslides, and regional power and telecommunications outages. In response to Helene and Milton, DRCS provided actionable information and products to stakeholders, including Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) analysis for landslide and flood detection, Black Marble nighttime lights products for assessing power outages, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis for post-event vegetation change detection. NASA deployed an Uninhibited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) instrument to collect data on flood extent, providing crucial information on affected communities. Additionally, astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) collected hand-held photography along the paths of Hurricane Helene and Milton to aid in response efforts. Here, we summarize the DRCS responses to Helene and Milton, in particular highlighting the information and products that were provided by the DRCS and how they were utilized by partners to address immediate response needs.

Earth observations↗

Efficient Simulation of Cascading Outages Using an Energy Function-Embedded Quasi-Steady-State Model

Here, this paper proposed an energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model for efficient simulation of cascading outages on a power grid while addressing transient stability concerns. Compared to quasi-steady-state models, the proposed model incorporates short-term dynamic simulation and an energy function method to efficiently evaluate the transient stability of a power grid together with outage propagation without transient stability simulation. Cascading outage simulation using the proposed model conducts three steps for each disturbance such as a line outage. First, it performs time-domain simulation for a short term to obtain a post-disturbance trajectory. Second, along the trajectory, the system state with the local maximum potential energy is found and used as the initial point to search for a relevant unstable equilibrium by Newton's method. Third, the transient energy margin is estimated based on this unstable equilibrium to predict an out-of-step condition with generators. The proposed energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model is tested in terms of its accuracy and time performance on an NPCC 140-bus power system and compared to a quasi-steady-state model embedding transient stability simulation.

Guo, Zhenping [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (↗

Estimates of the Economic Impacts of Long-Duration, Widespread Power Disruptions in Puerto Rico

A typical electricity customer in Puerto Rico experienced nearly 27 hours of power interruptions in 2023–with many customers experiencing extremely long duration outages during a single event (i.e., greater than one month). This project involved conducting state-of-the-art surveying to assess the direct costs of power outages occurring across Puerto Rico, developing customer-specific models to estimate future costs over varying outage durations, and comparing these estimates to FEMA’s Value of Unit Service for Electricity. We estimate that a territory-wide power outage may cost customers $\$1$, $\$5$ and $\$29$ billion during one-, 14-, and 30-day interruptions, respectively. However, these are lower-bound estimates because our study focused on direct economic costs and, by necessity, did not fully incorporate (1) indirect impacts to the economy; (2) costs to repair or replace damaged utility infrastructure; and (3) the broader societal consequences including increased morbidity- and mortality-related costs. The information contained in this study can be used to estimate the direct economic value of past or proposed investments in power system resilience. We conclude with a discussion of this study’s limitations and suggest additional research to improve stakeholder understanding of the impacts of power outages across Puerto Rico.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗