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NASA NTRS2007

ANOPP Landing Gear Noise Prediction Comparisons to Model-scale Data

The NASA Aircraft NOise Prediction Program (ANOPP) includes two methods for computing the noise from landing gear: the "Fink" method and the "Guo" method. Both methods have been predominately validated and used to predict full-scale landing gear noise. The two methods are compared, and their ability to predict the noise for model-scale landing gear is investigated. Predictions are made using both the Fink and Guo methods and compared to measured acoustic data obtained for a high-fidelity, 6.3%-scale, Boeing 777 main landing gear. A process is developed by which full-scale predictions can be scaled to compare with model-scale data. The measurements were obtained in the NASA Langley Quiet Flow Facility for a range of Mach numbers at a large number of observer polar (flyover) and azimuthal (sideline) observer angles. Spectra and contours of the measured sound pressure levels as a function of polar and azimuthal angle characterize the directivity of landing gear noise. Comparisons of predicted noise spectra and contours from each ANOPP method are made. Both methods predict comparable amplitudes and trends for the flyover locations, but deviate at the sideline locations. Neither method fully captures the measured noise directivity. The availability of these measured data provides the opportunity to further understand and advance noise prediction capabilities, particularly for noise directivity.

Burley, Casey L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Adaptive Data-based Predictive Control for Short Take-off and Landing (STOL) Aircraft

Data-based Predictive Control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. The characteristics of adaptive data-based predictive control are particularly appropriate for the control of nonlinear and time-varying systems, such as Short Take-off and Landing (STOL) aircraft. STOL is a capability of interest to NASA because conceptual Cruise Efficient Short Take-off and Landing (CESTOL) transport aircraft offer the ability to reduce congestion in the terminal area by utilizing existing shorter runways at airports, as well as to lower community noise by flying steep approach and climb-out patterns that reduce the noise footprint of the aircraft. In this study, adaptive data-based predictive control is implemented as an integrated flight-propulsion controller for the outer-loop control of a CESTOL-type aircraft. Results show that the controller successfully tracks velocity while attempting to maintain a constant flight path angle, using longitudinal command, thrust and flap setting as the control inputs.

Barlow, Jonathan Spencer↗

NASA NTRS2011

Development and Validation of a Multidisciplinary Tool for Accurate and Efficient Rotorcraft Noise Prediction (MUTE)

A physics-based, systematically coupled, multidisciplinary prediction tool (MUTE) for rotorcraft noise was developed and validated with a wide range of flight configurations and conditions. MUTE is an aggregation of multidisciplinary computational tools that accurately and efficiently model the physics of the source of rotorcraft noise, and predict the noise at far-field observer locations. It uses systematic coupling approaches among multiple disciplines including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD), and high fidelity acoustics. Within MUTE, advanced high-order CFD tools are used around the rotor blade to predict the transonic flow (shock wave) effects, which generate the high-speed impulsive noise. Predictions of the blade-vortex interaction noise in low speed flight are also improved by using the Particle Vortex Transport Method (PVTM), which preserves the wake flow details required for blade/wake and fuselage/wake interactions. The accuracy of the source noise prediction is further improved by utilizing a coupling approach between CFD and CSD, so that the effects of key structural dynamics, elastic blade deformations, and trim solutions are correctly represented in the analysis. The blade loading information and/or the flow field parameters around the rotor blade predicted by the CFD/CSD coupling approach are used to predict the acoustic signatures at far-field observer locations with a high-fidelity noise propagation code (WOPWOP3). The predicted results from the MUTE tool for rotor blade aerodynamic loading and far-field acoustic signatures are compared and validated with a variation of experimental data sets, such as UH60-A data, DNW test data and HART II test data.

Liu, Yi↗

NASA NTRS2011

Extension of Ko Straight-Beam Displacement Theory to Deformed Shape Predictions of Slender Curved Structures

The Ko displacement theory originally developed for shape predictions of straight beams is extended to shape predictions of curved beams. The surface strains needed for shape predictions were analytically generated from finite-element nodal stress outputs. With the aid of finite-element displacement outputs, mathematical functional forms for curvature-effect correction terms are established and incorporated into straight-beam deflection equations for shape predictions of both cantilever and two-point supported curved beams. The newly established deflection equations for cantilever curved beams could provide quite accurate shape predictions for different cantilever curved beams, including the quarter-circle cantilever beam. Furthermore, the newly formulated deflection equations for two-point supported curved beams could provide accurate shape predictions for a range of two-point supported curved beams, including the full-circular ring. Accuracy of the newly developed curved-beam deflection equations is validated through shape prediction analysis of curved beams embedded in the windward shallow spherical shell of a generic crew exploration vehicle. A single-point collocation method for optimization of shape predictions is discussed in detail

Ko, William L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Customizing Countermeasure Prescriptions using Predictive Measures of Sensorimotor Adaptability

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during the initial exposure to microgravity and during the readapation phase following a return to a gravitational environment. These alterations may lead to disruption in the ability to perform mission critical functional tasks during and after these gravitational transitions. Astronauts show significant inter-subject variation in adaptive capability following gravitational transitions. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which each individual astronaut will be affected would improve the effectiveness of a countermeasure comprised of a training program designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. Due to this inherent individual variability we need to develop predictive measures of sensorimotor adaptability that will allow us to predict, before actual space flight, which crewmember will experience challenges in adaptive capacity. Thus, obtaining this information will allow us to design and implement better sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures that will be customized for each crewmember's unique adaptive capabilities. Therefore the goals of this project are to: 1) develop a set of predictive measures capable of identifying individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability, and 2) use this information to design sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures that are customized for each crewmember's individual sensorimotor adaptive characteristics. To achieve these goals we are currently pursuing the following specific aims: Aim 1: Determine whether behavioral metrics of individual sensory bias predict sensorimotor adaptability. For this aim, subjects perform tests that delineate individual sensory biases in tests of visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive function. Aim 2: Determine if individual capability for strategic and plastic-adaptive responses predicts sensorimotor adaptability. For this aim, each subject's strategic and plastic-adaptive motor learning abilities are assessed using a test of locomotor function designed specifically to delineate both mechanisms. Aim 3: Develop predictors of sensorimotor adaptability using brain structural and functional metrics. We will measure individual differences in regional brain volumes (structural MRI), white matter integrity (diffusion tensor imaging, or DTI), functional network integrity (resting state functional connectivity MRI), and sensorimotor adaptation task-related functional brain activation (functional MRI). We decided to complete the data collection for Specific Aims 1, 2 and 3 simultaneously on the same subjects to increase data capture. By having the same subjects perform all three specific aims we can enhance our ability to detect how a wider range of factors can predict adaptability in a specific individual. This provides a much richer database and potentially a better understanding of the predictive power of the selected factors. In this presentation I will discuss preliminary data obtained to date.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem, focused and coordinated research efforts are needed, drawing from excellence across the broad drought research community. To meet this challenge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the ambitious goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor, and predict drought over North America. The Task Force (duration of October 2011-September 2014) is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in partnership with NIDIS. It brings together over 30 leading MAPP-funded drought scientists from multiple academic and federal institutions [involves scientists from NOAA's research laboratories and centers, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and many universities] in a concerted research effort that builds on individual MAPP research projects. These projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those aimed at testing new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes (as part of NCEP's Climate Test Bed). The Drought Task Force provides focus and coordination to MAPP drought research activities and also facilitates synergies with other national and international drought research efforts, including those by the GDIS.

GDIS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Predicted Weather Display and Decision Support Interface for Flight Deck

A system and method for providing visual depictions of a predictive weather forecast for in-route vehicle trajectory planning. The method includes displaying weather information on a graphical display, displaying vehicle position information on the graphical display, selecting a predictive interval, displaying predictive weather information for the predictive interval on the graphical display, and displaying predictive vehicle position information for the predictive interval on the graphical display, such that the predictive vehicle position information is displayed relative to the predictive weather information, for in-route trajectory planning.

Johnson, Walter W.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Aircraft System Noise Prediction Uncertainty Quantification for a Hybrid Wing Body Subsonic Transport Concept

Aircraft system level noise prediction for advanced, unconventional concepts has undergone significant improvement over the past two decades. The prediction modeling uncertainty must be quantified so that potential benefits of unconventional configurations, which are outside of the range of empirical models, can be reliably assessed. This paper builds on previous work in an effort to improve estimates of element prediction uncertainties where the prediction methodology has been improved, or new experimental validation data are available, to provide an estimate of the system level uncertainty in the prediction process. In general, the uncertainty of the prediction will be strongly dependent on the aircraft configuration as well as which technologies are integrated. While the quantitative uncertainty values contained here are specific to the hybrid wing body design presented, the underlying process is the same regardless of configuration. A refined process for determining the uncertainty for each element of the noise prediction is detailed in this paper. The system level uncertainty in the prediction of the aircraft noise is determined at the three certification points, using a Monte Carlo method. Comparisons with previous work show a reduction of 1 EPNdB in the 95%coverage interval of the cumulative noise level. The largest impediment for continued reduction in uncertainty for the hybrid wing body concept is the need for improved modeling and validation experiments for fan noise, propulsion airframe aeroacoustic effects, and the Krueger flap, which comprise the bulk of the uncertainty in the cumulative certification noise level.

June, Jason C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Prediction skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains flash drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) models

Rapid-onset droughts, known as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. Here, we investigate the prediction skill of the extreme 2012 flash drought over the U.S. Great Plains at subseasonal lead times (3 weeks or more in advance) in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). An additional comprehensive set of subseasonal hindcasts with NASA’s GEOS model, a SubX model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. The results show that the prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While skillful predictions are restricted to within the first two forecast weeks in most models, skill is considerably better (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization once dry soil conditions are established, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Evidence is provided that the importance of soil moisture initialization applies more generally to central U.S. summer flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary atmospheric circulation anomalies.

Anthony M DeAngelis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pragmatic Stress Prediction on Additively Manufactured Coupons

Prediction of residual stresses from process parameters for additively manufactured large metal parts is computationally expensive. NASA is currently developing meter-scale parts with direct energy deposition. Practically, the predictive computational methods need to efficiently scale-up to meter-scale parts. Coupled thermal-mechanical multi-physics simulations have been developed with the pragmatic method using ABAQUS, COMSOL Multiphysics, ALE3D software. The residual stresses are a result of the manufacturing process which creates thermal cycling of the build layers. The pragmatic method uses lumped thermal layers for stress predictions to reduce computational costs. The stress predictions as well as deformations of the different codes are compared with each other and with ANSYS Additive using identical material models, boundary and initial conditions. The codes were used to simulate three different geometries: a thin wall, hollow cylinder and twin-cantilever part. The coupon parts were then manufactured with Inconel-625. The residual stresses in these parts were measured using X-ray diffraction as well as neutron beam diffraction at NIST. The stress measurements for the two technologies are compared. The pragmatic stress prediction method enabled predictions of the multi-centimeter scale parts using desktop computer workstations in only a few hours for each coupon. The results of the simulated stress predictions compared favorably with the measured stresses even though thermally lumped layers were employed. Finally, a two-meter scale nozzle was simulated using ANSYS Additive. The simulations were used to examine the build orientation trade-space with respect to resulting geometric deformation. The predicted deformations were compared to measurements of an actual subscale part manufactured with direct energy deposition.

pragmatic method↗

NASA NTRS2022

Predicting the Penetration of a Shielded TPS Tile

All spacecraft are subject to the possibility of high-speed particle impacts during their mission life. In low earth orbit, those impacts could be the result of collisions with pieces of orbital debris or with meteorites. Beyond LEO, and especially beyond GEO, those impacts will likely be caused by meteorites. Such high-speed impacts on spacecraft surfaces create debris clouds that travel towards and eventually impact other downstream spacecraft components. In addition to the impulsive load that such debris clouds would impart to the spacecraft elements with which they subsequently collide, the largest fragment in these debris clouds poses a significant threat on its own to those spacecraft elements. In order to be able to assess the severity of the threat posed by such a fragment, it is important to be able to predict the extent of damage sustained by the impacted spacecraft element. In this paper, we present a new process for determining the penetration depth in a shielded TPS tile system. The requirements for the process were that it be applicable across a full spectrum of impact low velocities (i.e. from ~ 7 km/s to above 50 km/s), that it be applicable over a wide range of projectile materials densities (i.e. ranging from water to steel, for example), and that it be applicable over a wide range of trajectory obliquities (i.e. not just normal impacts). Furthermore, the process developed should be sufficiently flexible so that it can be used for shield design parameter and / or system configuration trade studies (i.e. be written in terms of as many shield and TPS tile system parameters as possible). Following the initial impact of the projectile on the outer wall of the dual-wall shield, a debris cloud (i.e. the primary debris cloud) is created that travels towards and impacts the inner wall of the shield. Within this debris cloud is a combination of solid, liquid, and vaporized material, depending on the impact velocity and the impedance mismatch of the projectile and outer wall materials. The impact of this debris cloud on the inner wall creates another debris cloud (i.e. the secondary debris cloud) that then travels towards and impacts the TPS tile. Within the particulate distribution of the material in each of these debris clouds is a so-called largest fragment. The process used to calculate the penetration depth in a shielded TPS tile system developed herein consists of the following three steps: 1. Does the initial projectile perforate the outer wall of the shield? If NO, the TPS tile remains undamaged. If YES, calculate the size and speed of the largest fragment exiting the outer wall of the shield and traveling towards the shield’s inner wall. 2. Does the largest fragment in the debris cloud exiting the outer wall of the shield perforate the inner wall of the shield? If NO, the TPS tile again remains undamaged. If YES, calculate the size and speed of the largest fragment exiting the rear of the shield inner wall. 3. Calculate the penetration depth of the largest fragment in the debris cloud exiting the inner wall into the TPS. Perforation of the inner and outer shield walls is predicted using the Cour-Palais penetration depth equation and an associated failure criterion [1]. The largest debris cloud fragment diameters and associated velocities are calculated using regression equations developed from a mix of hydrocode and experimental diameter and velocity information [2]. Finally, TPS penetration depths are calculated using an empirical penetration depth predictor equation based on high-speed impact test data and are calibrated using a limited number of hydrocode penetration depth predictions for water, nylon, aluminum, Dunite, and steel projectiles The predictions of the penetration depth calculation process are compared against the predictions of more than 60 SPHC hydrocode runs. These comparisons show that the process used to calculate TPS tile penetration depths usually yields values that are within 1 mm of the predictions of hydrocode simulations. If a maximum allowable TPS penetration depth is known, the process developed herein can now be used to develop a failure limit equation that would predict whether or not an impacting particle would penetrate deeply enough into the TPS to result in a “failed” or “not failed” end state. References [1] E.L. Christiansen, “Design and performance equations for advanced meteoroid and debris shields”, International Journal of Impact Engineering, Vol. 14, 1993, pp. 145-156. [2] W.P. Schonberg, “Predicting the size of the largest particle fragment in a debris cloud created by an orbital debris impact and its associated velocity”, 2021 Applied Space Environments Conference, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, November, 2021.

Meteroid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Load Prediction Equations of Low-Load Balance Calibration Data

Accuracy and reliability of the load prediction equations of a low-load calibration data set of a force balance were investigated. First, independent load prediction equations were generated from the data of a full-load and low-load machine calibration. Then, the low- load data set was processed as a set of precision check loads for the load prediction equations that were obtained from the full-load and low-load calibrations. Finally, the load prediction equations of the two calibrations were applied to four manual check load data sets that were recorded between 2009 and 2022. The residuals of the predicted calibration and check loads were compared in all cases. No systematic improvement of the load prediction accuracy was observed when the load prediction equations of the low-load calibration were applied to the check load data sets. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a full-load calibration to a six-component balance even if the balance is not used across its entire design envelope. This approach has the advantage that the resulting load prediction equations are less likely to be applied outside of the calibration load ranges. In addition, it is expected that the numerical estimates of the gage sensitivities are more reliable assuming that the uncertainties of the applied loads and measured outputs of the calibration data are more or less constant across the load range of the balance.

strain-gage balance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Summary of Results from the Third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop Flight Test Working Group

This paper summarizes results of the Flight Test Working Group presented at the third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop held in January 2023. The Flight Test Working Group was looking at the application of flutter prediction tools of a complete aircraft and comparing those predictions to flight-test data. The teams generated a total of six different predictions of the body freedom flutter exhibited by the X-56A experimental aircraft with flexible wings. The computational predictions of frequency and damping are compared with the flight-test data. All of the methods gave similar predictions of the flutter speed, but were all about 10 to 20 knots higher than the measured flutter speed. Additionally, the different generalized aerodynamic forces and the aerodynamic work from the computational tools are compared to illustrate the differences in the methods. Looking at the aerodynamic work done by the flutter mode, suggests that the pitch motion is dissipating less energy and the plunge motion is adding more in the methods which better predict the flutter. However, with only six different predictions it was not possible to develop more definitive conclusions.

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Summary of Results from the Third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop Flight Test Working Group

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

NASA NTRS2023

Investigating Potential Causes for the Prediction of Spurious Magnetopause Crossings at Geosynchronous Orbit in MHD Simulations

During intense geomagnetic storms, the magnetopause can move in as far as geosynchronous orbit, leaving the satellites in that orbit out in the magnetosheath. Spacecraft operators turn to numerical models to predict the response of the magnetopause to solar wind conditions, but the predictions of the models are not always accurate. This study investigates four storms with a magnetopause crossing by at least one GOES satellite, using four magnetohydrodynamic models at NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center to simulate the events, and analyzes the results to investigate the reasons for errors in the predictions. Two main reasons can explain most of the erroneous predictions. First, the solar wind input to the simulations often contains features measured near the L1 point that did not eventually arrive at Earth; incorrect predictions during such periods are due to the solar wind input rather than to the models themselves. Second, while the models do well when the primary driver of magnetopause motion is a variation in the solar wind density, they tend to overpredict or underpredict the integrated Birkeland currents and their effects during times of strong negative interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz, leading to poorer prediction capability. Coupling the MHD codes to a ring current model, when such a coupling is available, generally will improve the predictions but will not always entirely correct them. More work is needed to fully characterize the response of each code under strong southward IMF conditions as it relates to prediction of magnetopause location.

magnetopause↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Predictions of Boiling Regime Transitions during Line Chilldown validated against a 1G LN2 Experiment

Introduction Before filling a propellant tank on the ground or in Space, the transfer line between the donor and receiver tanks must be cooled down preferably by sacrificing a minimum amount of the cryogenic fluid. The cryogenic line chill-down process involves a transition between different flow boiling regimes, namely, film boiling, transition film boiling, and nucleate boiling which are complex and may be quite gravity-dependent. Capturing these boiling phenomena and predicting the transition between them in a CFD framework is new and challenging both for 1g and microgravity applications. Materials & Methods The present work addresses this challenge by employing a two-phase Eulerian approach in the context of a homogeneous fluid mixture together with the Lee phase change model to capture the film boiling regime of the chill-down process using ANSYS Fluent®. The nucleate boiling regime is predicted by incorporating an in-house developed sub-grid model that accounts for bubble nucleation, bubble growth, bubble departure diameter, and their shedding frequency. The sub-grid model is encoded and implemented into Fluent via a user-defined function for the wall-fluid heat flux calculations. The mathematical formulation and numerical implementation of the CFD model are described in detail. The coupled CFD-Subgrid model is validated against published experimental data for liquid nitrogen chill-down of a heated stainless-steel pipe in 1g. Results Numerical simulation results show good agreements between the CFD predictions of the wall temperature evolution, rewetting temperature, and transition between film and nucleate boiling, with the experimental measurements published by Darr et al [2] for several different LN2 flowrates in the vertical pipe orientation. The CFD predictions for the wall temperature distribution indicate a rapid quenching of the wall at two upstream and downstream temperature sensing locations as compared to the experimental measurement. The only tuning parameter in the CFD model is the Lee mass transfer coefficient. The CFD Model predicts the Liedenfrost rewetting temperature in close agreement with the experiment. This marks a transition between stable and transitionary flow boiling regimes. The CFD-predicted boiling curve for the downstream sensor location is also compared against its experimental counterpart and indicates that the model is able to predict all the key temperature and heat flux parameters during the transitions from stable to transitionary film boiling to nucleate boiling in close agreement with the experiment. A sequence of predicted volume fraction, and temperature contours depicting these transitions will be presented.

Evaporation Condensation↗

NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗