Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting core transport in ITER baseline discharges with neon injections

Achieving self-consistent performance predictions for ITER requires integrated modeling of core transport and divertor power exhaust under realistic impurity conditions. We present results from a systematic power-flow and impurity-content study for the ITER 15 MA baseline scenario constrained directly by existing SOLPS-ITER neon-seeded divertor solutions. Using the OMFIT STEP workflow, stationary temperature and density profiles are predicted with TGYRO for $1.5 \unicode{x2A7D} Z_\textrm{eff} \unicode{x2A7D} 2.5$, and the corresponding power crossing the separatrix $P_\textrm{sep}$ is evaluated. We find that $P_\textrm{sep}$ varies by more than a factor of 1.7 across this scan and matches the ${\sim}100$ MW SOLPS-ITER prediction when $Z_\textrm{eff} \simeq 1.6$ or when auxiliary heating is reduced to ${\sim}75\%$ of nominal. Rotation-sensitivity studies show that plausible variations in toroidal flow magnitude modify $P_\textrm{sep}$ by $\lesssim 20\%$, while AURORA modeling confirms that charge-exchange radiation inside the separatrix is dynamically negligible under predicted ITER neutral densities. These results identify a restricted compatibility window, $Z_\textrm{eff} \approx 1.6$ –1.75 and $0.75 \lesssim f_{P_\textrm{aux}} \unicode{x2A7D} 1.0$, in which core transport predictions remain aligned with neon-seeded divertor protection targets. This self-consistent, model-constrained framework provides actionable guidance for impurity control and auxiliary-heating scheduling in early ITER operation and supports future whole-device scenario optimization.

ITER↗
DOE OSTI2024

A new data-driven map predicts substantial undocumented peatland areas in Amazonia

Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense terrestrial ecosystems yet recorded. Collectively, they comprise a large but highly uncertain reservoir of the global carbon cycle, with wide-ranging estimates of their global area (441 025–1700 000 km 2 ) and below-ground carbon storage (105–288 Pg C). Substantial gaps remain in our understanding of peatland distribution in some key regions, including most of tropical South America. Here we compile 2413 ground reference points in and around Amazonian peatlands and use them alongside a stack of remote sensing products in a random forest model to generate the first field-data-driven model of peatland distribution across the Amazon basin. Our model predicts a total Amazonian peatland extent of 251 015 km 2 (95th percentile confidence interval: 128 671–373 359), greater than that of the Congo basin, but around 30% smaller than a recent model-derived estimate of peatland area across Amazonia. The model performs relatively well against point observations but spatial gaps in the ground reference dataset mean that model uncertainty remains high, particularly in parts of Brazil and Bolivia. For example, we predict significant peatland areas in northern Peru with relatively high confidence, while peatland areas in the Rio Negro basin and adjacent south-western Orinoco basin which have previously been predicted to hold Campinarana or white sand forests, are predicted with greater uncertainty. Similarly, we predict large areas of peatlands in Bolivia, surprisingly given the strong climatic seasonality found over most of the country. Very little field data exists with which to quantitatively assess the accuracy of our map in these regions. Data gaps such as these should be a high priority for new field sampling. This new map can facilitate future research into the vulnerability of peatlands to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, which is likely to vary spatially across the Amazon basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments

Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.

DNA copy number variations↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Adaptively Chosen Observables in Quantum Systems

Recent advances have demonstrated that 𝒪⁡(log 𝑀) measurements suffice to predict 𝑀 properties of arbitrarily large quantum many-body systems. However, these remarkable findings assume that the properties to be predicted are chosen independently of the data. This assumption can be violated in practice, where scientists adaptively select properties after looking at previous predictions. This work investigates the adaptive setting for three classes of observables: local, Pauli, and bounded-Frobenius-norm observables. We prove that Ω⁡(√𝑀) samples of an arbitrarily large unknown quantum state are necessary to predict expectation values of 𝑀 adaptively chosen local and Pauli observables, where the system size scales exponentially and polynomially in 𝑀, respectively. We also present computationally efficient algorithms that achieve this information-theoretic lower bound. In contrast, for bounded-Frobenius-norm observables, we devise an algorithm requiring only 𝒪⁡(log 𝑀) samples, independent of system size. These results highlight the potential pitfalls of adaptivity in analyzing data from quantum experiments and provide algorithmic tools to safeguard against erroneous predictions in quantum experiments.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

The seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction: structure generation methods

A seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction was organized by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre featuring seven target systems of varying complexity: a silicon and iodine-containing molecule, a copper coordination complex, a near-rigid molecule, a cocrystal, a polymorphic small agrochemical, a highly flexible polymorphic drug candidate, and a polymorphic morpholine salt. In this first of two parts focusing on structure generation methods, many crystal structure prediction (CSP) methods performed well for the small but flexible agrochemical compound, successfully reproducing the experimentally observed crystal structures, while few groups were successful for the systems of higher complexity. A powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) assisted exercise demonstrated the use of CSP in successfully determining a crystal structure from a low-quality PXRD pattern. The use of CSP in the prediction of likely cocrystal stoichiometry was also explored, demonstrating multiple possible approaches. Crystallographic disorder emerged as an important theme throughout the test as both a challenge for analysis and a major achievement where two groups blindly predicted the existence of disorder for the first time. Additionally, large-scale comparisons of the sets of predicted crystal structures also showed that some methods yield sets that largely contain the same crystal structures.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Photovoltaic Module Characterization: Using Image Transformers for Current–Voltage Curve Prediction From Electroluminescence Images

Individual photovoltaic (PV) module health monitoring can be a daunting task for operation and maintenance of solar farms. Modules can be inspected through luminescence, thermal imaging, and current–voltage (I–V) curve analyzes for identification of damage and power loss. I–V curves provide easily interpretable data to determine module health as they directly provide electrical performance metrics. However, in order to obtain these curves, modules must be disconnected from the array and either removed to a solar simulator or characterized in situ with corrections for module temperature, the incident solar spectrum, and intensity. Luminescence or thermal images of a module are relatively easy to acquire in situ. Electroluminescence (EL) images highlight physical defects in the modules but do not provide easily interpretable features to correlate with electrical performance. This work presents a SWin transformer network to predict I–V curves for PV modules from their corresponding EL images. The predicted I–V curves allow the accurate prediction of the maximum power point (MPP), short-circuit current I sc , and open-circuit voltage V oc with a mean error less of than 1%. Comparing single diode model (SDM) parameters extracted from the predicted curves to those extracted from the true curves, the series resistance R s demonstrates a mean error of 5.19%, and the photocurrent I a mean error of 0.197%. The shunt resistance R sh and dark current Io parameters are predicted with larger errors because of their sensitivity to small changes in the I–V curve.

Byford, Brandon K. [New Mexico State Univ., Las Cr↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Deep Multimodal Representation Learning Framework for Accurate Molecular Properties Prediction

Drug discovery is a complex and challenging process, requiring the optimization of candidate compounds to identify those with the potential to become safe and effective drugs. Predicting molecular properties is an indispensable step in the drug discovery pipeline. Traditionally, this process is costly and time-intensive, involving multiple rounds of experiments and clinical trials, rendering it impractical for every candidate compound. Deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach to drug discovery to reduce the cost and time required to identify novel drugs. However, prevalent research in deep learning models focused on predicting molecular properties has primarily fixated on single-modal models, which utilize a single modality of data, neglecting the potential benefits of combining different data modalities. To overcome this limitation, we introduce MRL-Mol: a deep \textbf{M}ultimodal \textbf{R}epresentation \textbf{L}earning framework for accurate \textbf{Mol}ecular properties prediction. MRL-Mol harnesses three data modalities: sequence, graph, and image, augmenting the depth of comprehension. Leveraging a large-scale unlabeled dataset~($\sim$1M unique molecules), we pretrain MRL-Mol to extract inter- and intra-modal information. Our study demonstrates the superior performance of MRL-Mol in predicting molecular properties across six benchmark datasets, including both classification and regression tasks. Notably, MRL-Mol outperforms other state-of-the-art molecular properties prediction models. These findings suggest that by combining information from multiple data modalities, MRL-Mol can comprehend molecules better than single-modal deep learning models and identify molecular properties with better accuracy.

Yang, Yuxin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of kidney function on Alzheimer’s disease blood biomarkers: implications for predicting amyloid-β positivity

Impaired kidney function has a potential confounding effect on blood biomarker levels, including biomarkers for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Given the imminent use of certain blood biomarkers in the routine diagnostic work-up of patients with suspected AD, knowledge on the potential impact of comorbidities on the utility of blood biomarkers is important. We aimed to evaluate the association between kidney function, assessed through estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated from plasma creatinine and AD blood biomarkers, as well as their influence over predicting Aβ-positivity. We included 242 participants from the Translational Biomarkers in Aging and Dementia (TRIAD) cohort, comprising cognitively unimpaired individuals (CU; n = 124), mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 58), AD dementia (n = 34), and non-AD dementia (n = 26) patients all characterized by [ 18 F] AZD-4694. Plasma samples were analyzed for Aβ42, Aβ40, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), neurofilament light chain (NfL), tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (p-tau181), 217 (p-tau217), 231 (p-tau231) and N-terminal containing tau fragments (NTA-tau) using Simoa technology. Kidney function was assessed by eGFR in mL/min/1.73 m 2 , based on plasma creatinine levels, age, and sex. Participants were also stratified according to their eGFR-indexed stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We evaluated the association between eGFR and blood biomarker levels with linear models and assessed whether eGFR provided added predictive value to determine Aβ-positivity with logistic regression models. Biomarker concentrations were highest in individuals with CKD stage 3, followed by stages 2 and 1, but differences were only significant for NfL, Aβ42, and Aβ40 (not Aβ42/Aβ40). All investigated biomarkers showed significant associations with eGFR except plasma NTA-tau, with stronger relationships observed for Aβ40 and NfL. However, after adjusting for either age, sex or Aβ-PET SUVr, the association with eGFR was no longer significant for all biomarkers except Aβ40, Aβ42, NfL, and GFAP. When evaluating whether accounting for kidney function could lead to improved prediction of Aβ-positivity, we observed no improvements in model fit (Akaike Information Criterion, AIC) or in discriminative performance (AUC) by adding eGFR to a base model including each plasma biomarker, age, and sex. While covariates like age and sex improved model fit, eGFR contributed minimally, and there were no significant differences in clinical discrimination based on AUC values. We found that kidney function seems to be associated with AD blood biomarker concentrations. However, these associations did not remain significant after adjusting for age and sex, except for Aβ40, Aβ42, NfL, and GFAP. While covariates such as age and sex improved prediction of Aβ-positivity, including eGFR in the models did not lead to improved prediction for any biomarker. Our findings indicate that renal function, within the normal to mild impairment range, does not seem to have a clinically relevant impact when using highly accurate blood biomarkers, such as p-tau217, in a biomarker-supported diagnosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification" Willard et al. (2025).

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores the effect of different ensemble construction techniques across different common machine learning (ML) architectures for predictions in unmonitored basins. Modeling was done using long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), temporal convolution network (TCN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The ensemble construction techniques investigated include ensemble by random weight initialization, differing hyperparameters, different random subsets of training data, different subselections of input features, different architectures, and Monte Carlo Dropout. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025).Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code:- data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repositoryData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2025streamensembles,author = {Jared Willard and Charuleka Varadharajan},title = {Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification"},year = {2024},doi = {10.15485/2527393},publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository},url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2527393}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification". 2025. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts from: “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”

This data package includes data and scripts from the manuscript “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”.The study addressed common challenges faced in environmental sensing and modeling, including uncertain input data, missing sensor observations, and high-dimensional datasets with interrelated but redundant variables. Point-scaled meteorological and soil sensor observations were perturbed with noises and missing values, and denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural networks were developed to reconstruct the perturbed data and further predict evapotranspiration. This study concluded that (1) the reconstruction quality of each variable depends on its cross-correlation and alignment to the underlying data structure, (2) uncertainties from the models were overall stronger than those from the data corruption, and (3) there was a tradeoff between reducing bias and reducing variance when evaluating the uncertainty of the machine learning models.This package includes:(1) Four ipython scripts (.ipynb): “DAE_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates DAE neural networks, “DAE_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from the trained DAE models, “ET_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates ET prediction neural networks, and “ET_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from trained ET models.(2) One python file (.py): “methods.py” includes all user-defined functions and python codes used in the ipython scripts.(3) A “sub_models” folder that includes five trained DAE neural networks (in pytorch format, .pt), which could be used to ingest input data before being fed to the downstream ET models in ‘ET_train.ipynb” or ‘ET_predict.ipynb’.(4) Two data files (.csv). Daily meteorological, vegetation, and soil data is in “df_data.csv”, where “df_meta.csv” contains the location and time information of “df_data.csv”. Each row (index) in “df_meta.csv” corresponds to each row in “df_data.csv”. These data files are formatted to follow the data structure requirements and be directly used in the ipython scripts, and they have been shuffled chronologically to train machine learning models. The meteorological and soil data was collected using point sensors between 2019-2023 at(4.a) Three shrub-dominated field sites in East River, Colorado (named “ph1”, “ph2” and “sg5” in “df_meta.csv”, where “ph1” and “ph2” were located at PumpHouse Hillslopes, and “sg5” was at Snodgrass Mountain meadow) and(4.b) One outdoor, mesoscale, and herbaceous-dominated experiment in Berkeley, California (named “tb” in “df_meta.csv”, short for Smartsoils Testbed at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab).- See "df_data_dd.csv" and "df_meta_dd.csv" for variable descriptions and the Methods section for additional data processing steps. See "flmd.csv" and "README.txt" for brief file descriptions.- All ipython scripts and python files are written in and require PYTHON language software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Samoa Updater: An Application of the Levenberg-Marquardt Method to Update DELFIC Predictions Using Field Measurements

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Forensics Operations (DFO) is a member of the Ground Collections Task Force (GCTF), which is responsible for sample collection of radiological debris for attribution should a nuclear detonation ever occur in the United States. The DFO runs the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Fallout Planning Tool to predict the deposition of fallout from a nuclear detonation. This prediction is refined using the DELFIC Updater tool, which takes ground measurements and adjusts DELFIC inputs to minimize the difference between prediction and observation, yielding improved predictions of fallout in locations both measured and not yet measured. Samoa, a framework for uncertainty analysis and optimization, is used to improve DELFIC predictive fallout modeling. This new capability using Samoa, dubbed “Samoa Updater,” is compared with the current DELFIC Updater, a brute-force sampling approach. Samoa Updater uses the Levenberg– Marquardt (LM) method, a gradient-based nonlinear least squares approach that uses the functional shape of the input space to increase optimization speed. In simulated test cases Samoa Updater yields faster and more accurate solutions than the current Updater.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗