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At least 145 records · Page 8

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NASA NTRS1998

A Case Study for Probabilistic Methods Validation (MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund, Project No. 94-26)

Probabilistic method is not a universally accepted approach for the design and analysis of aerospace structures. The validity of this approach must be demonstrated to encourage its acceptance as it viable design and analysis tool to estimate structural reliability. The objective of this Study is to develop a well characterized finite population of similar aerospace structures that can be used to (1) validate probabilistic codes, (2) demonstrate the basic principles behind probabilistic methods, (3) formulate general guidelines for characterization of material drivers (such as elastic modulus) when limited data is available, and (4) investigate how the drivers affect the results of sensitivity analysis at the component/failure mode level.

Price J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Probabilistic Modeling of High-Temperature Material Properties of a 5-Harness 0/90 Sylramic Fiber/ CVI-SiC/ MI-SiC Woven Composite

An integrated probabilistic approach has been developed to assess composites for high temperature applications. This approach was used to determine thermal and mechanical properties and their probabilistic distributions of a 5-harness 0/90 Sylramic fiber/CVI-SiC/Mi-SiC woven Ceramic Matrix Composite (CMC) at high temperatures. The purpose of developing this approach was to generate quantitative probabilistic information on this CMC to help complete the evaluation for its potential application for HSCT combustor liner. This approach quantified the influences of uncertainties inherent in constituent properties called primitive variables on selected key response variables of the CMC at 2200 F. The quantitative information is presented in the form of Cumulative Density Functions (CDFs). Probability Density Functions (PDFS) and primitive variable sensitivities on response. Results indicate that the scatters in response variables were reduced by 30-50% when the uncertainties in the primitive variables, which showed the most influence, were reduced by 50%.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Application of the Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method to the Analysis of a Realistic Structure

The Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis method is a new technique for obtaining the statistics of a desired response engineering quantity for a structure with non-deterministic parameters. The method uses measured data from modal testing of the structure as the input random variables, rather than more "primitive" quantities like geometry or material variation. This modal information is much more comprehensive and easily measured than the "primitive" information. The probabilistic analysis is carried out using either response surface reliability methods or Monte Carlo simulation. A previous work verified the feasibility of the PDS method on a simple seven degree-of-freedom spring-mass system. In this paper, extensive issues involved with applying the method to a realistic three-substructure system are examined, and free and forced response analyses are performed. The results from using the method are promising, especially when the lack of alternatives for obtaining quantitative output for probabilistic structures is considered.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Probabilistic Composite Design

Probabilistic composite design is described in terms of a computational simulation. This simulation tracks probabilistically the composite design evolution from constituent materials, fabrication process, through composite mechanics and structural components. Comparisons with experimental data are provided to illustrate selection of probabilistic design allowables, test methods/specimen guidelines, and identification of in situ versus pristine strength, For example, results show that: in situ fiber tensile strength is 90% of its pristine strength; flat-wise long-tapered specimens are most suitable for setting ply tensile strength allowables: a composite radome can be designed with a reliability of 0.999999; and laminate fatigue exhibits wide-spread scatter at 90% cyclic-stress to static-strength ratios.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Application of the Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method to Realistic Structures

The Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis method is a technique for obtaining the statistics of a desired response engineering quantity for a structure with non-deterministic parameters. The method uses measured data from modal testing of the structure as the input random variables, rather than more "primitive" quantities like geometry or material variation. This modal information is much more comprehensive and easily measured than the "primitive" information. The probabilistic analysis is carried out using either response surface reliability methods or Monte Carlo simulation. In previous work, the feasibility of the PDS method applied to a simple seven degree-of-freedom spring-mass system was verified. In this paper, extensive issues involved with applying the method to a realistic three-substructure system are examined, and free and forced response analyses are performed. The results from using the method are promising, especially when the lack of alternatives for obtaining quantitative output for probabilistic structures is considered.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of the SRB Aft Skirt External Fitting Modification

NASA has funded several major programs (the PSAM Project is an example) to develop Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods and tools for engineers to apply in the design and assessment of aerospace hardware. A probabilistic finite element design tool, known as NESSUS, is used to determine the reliability of the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) aft skirt critical weld. An external bracket modification to the aft skirt provides a comparison basis for examining the details of the probabilistic analysis and its contributions to the design process.

Townsend, John S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Probabilistic Multi-Scale, Multi-Level, Multi-Disciplinary Analysis and Optimization of Engine Structures

Aircraft engines are assemblies of dynamically interacting components. Engine updates to keep present aircraft flying safely and engines for new aircraft are progressively required to operate in more demanding technological and environmental requirements. Designs to effectively meet those requirements are necessarily collections of multi-scale, multi-level, multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization methods and probabilistic methods are necessary to quantify respective uncertainties. These types of methods are the only ones that can formally evaluate advanced composite designs which satisfy those progressively demanding requirements while assuring minimum cost, maximum reliability and maximum durability. Recent research activities at NASA Glenn Research Center have focused on developing multi-scale, multi-level, multidisciplinary analysis and optimization methods. Multi-scale refers to formal methods which describe complex material behavior metal or composite; multi-level refers to integration of participating disciplines to describe a structural response at the scale of interest; multidisciplinary refers to open-ended for various existing and yet to be developed discipline constructs required to formally predict/describe a structural response in engine operating environments. For example, these include but are not limited to: multi-factor models for material behavior, multi-scale composite mechanics, general purpose structural analysis, progressive structural fracture for evaluating durability and integrity, noise and acoustic fatigue, emission requirements, hot fluid mechanics, heat-transfer and probabilistic simulations. Many of these, as well as others, are encompassed in an integrated computer code identified as Engine Structures Technology Benefits Estimator (EST/BEST) or Multi-faceted/Engine Structures Optimization (MP/ESTOP). The discipline modules integrated in MP/ESTOP include: engine cycle (thermodynamics), engine weights, internal fluid mechanics, cost, mission and coupled structural/thermal, various composite property simulators and probabilistic methods to evaluate uncertainty effects (scatter ranges) in all the design parameters. The objective of the proposed paper is to briefly describe a multi-faceted design analysis and optimization capability for coupled multi-discipline engine structures optimization. Results are presented for engine and aircraft type metrics to illustrate the versatility of that capability. Results are also presented for reliability, noise and fatigue to illustrate its inclusiveness. For example, replacing metal rotors with composites reduces the engine weight by 20 percent, 15 percent noise reduction, and an order of magnitude improvement in reliability. Composite designs exist to increase fatigue life by at least two orders of magnitude compared to state-of-the-art metals.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Demonstration of the Application of Composite Load Spectra (CLS) and Probabilistic Structural Analysis (PSAM) Codes to SSME Heat Exchanger Turnaround Vane

This report describes a probabilistic structural analysis performed to determine the probabilistic structural response under fluctuating random pressure loads for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turnaround vane. It uses a newly developed frequency and distance dependent correlation model that has features to model the decay phenomena along the flow and across the flow with the capability to introduce a phase delay. The analytical results are compared using two computer codes SAFER (Spectral Analysis of Finite Element Responses) and NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) and with experimentally observed strain gage data. The computer code NESSUS with an interface to a sub set of Composite Load Spectra (CLS) code is used for the probabilistic analysis. A Fatigue code was used to calculate fatigue damage due to the random pressure excitation. The random variables modeled include engine system primitive variables that influence the operating conditions, convection velocity coefficient, stress concentration factor, structural damping, and thickness of the inner and outer vanes. The need for an appropriate correlation model in addition to magnitude of the PSD is emphasized. The study demonstrates that correlation characteristics even under random pressure loads are capable of causing resonance like effects for some modes. The study identifies the important variables that contribute to structural alternate stress response and drive the fatigue damage for the new design. Since the alternate stress for the new redesign is less than the endurance limit for the material, the damage due high cycle fatigue is negligible.

Rajagopal, Kadambi R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aircraft Conflict Analysis and Real-Time Conflict Probing Using Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling

Methods for maintaining separation between aircraft in the current airspace system have been built from a foundation of structured routes and evolved procedures. However, as the airspace becomes more congested and the chance of failures or operational error become more problematic, automated conflict alerting systems have been proposed to help provide decision support and to serve as traffic monitoring aids. The problem of conflict detection and resolution has been tackled from a number of different ways, but in this thesis, it is recast as a problem of prediction in the presence of uncertainties. Much of the focus is concentrated on the errors and uncertainties from the working trajectory model used to estimate future aircraft positions. The more accurate the prediction, the more likely an ideal (no false alarms, no missed detections) alerting system can be designed. Additional insights into the problem were brought forth by a review of current operational and developmental approaches found in the literature. An iterative, trial and error approach to threshold design was identified. When examined from a probabilistic perspective, the threshold parameters were found to be a surrogate to probabilistic performance measures. To overcome the limitations in the current iterative design method, a new direct approach is presented where the performance measures are directly computed and used to perform the alerting decisions. The methodology is shown to handle complex encounter situations (3-D, multi-aircraft, multi-intent, with uncertainties) with relative ease. Utilizing a Monte Carlo approach, a method was devised to perform the probabilistic computations in near realtime. Not only does this greatly increase the method's potential as an analytical tool, but it also opens up the possibility for use as a real-time conflict alerting probe. A prototype alerting logic was developed and has been utilized in several NASA Ames Research Center experimental studies.

Yang, Lee C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Fifth Annual Workshop on the Application of Probabilistic Methods for Gas Turbine Engines

These are the proceedings of the 5th Annual FAA/Air Force/NASA/Navy Workshop on the Probabilistic Methods for Gas Turbine Engines hosted by NASA Glenn Research Center and held at the Holiday Inn Cleveland West. The history of this series of workshops stems from the recognition that both military and commercial aircraft engines are inevitably subjected to similar design and manufacturing principles. As such, it was eminently logical to combine knowledge bases on how some of these overlapping principles and methodologies are being applied. We have started the process by creating synergy and cooperation between the FAA, Air Force, Navy, and NASA in these workshops. The recent 3-day workshop was specifically designed to benefit the development of probabilistic methods for gas turbine engines by addressing recent technical accomplishments and forging new ideas. We accomplished our goals of minimizing duplication, maximizing the dissemination of information, and improving program planning to all concerned. This proceeding includes the final agenda, abstracts, presentations, and panel notes, plus the valuable contact information from our presenters and attendees. We hope that this proceeding will be a tool to enhance understanding of the developers and users of probabilistic methods. The fifth workshop doubled its attendance and had the success of collaboration with the many diverse groups represented including government, industry, academia, and our international partners. So, "Start your engines!" and utilize these proceedings towards creating safer and more reliable gas turbine engines for our commercial and military partners.

Briscoe, Victoria↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Study of Fluid Structure Interaction

Probabilistic CFD design is needed because we are asked to do more with less. To cost effectively accomplish the design task, we need to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties (variables) in the design. Probabilistic design is one effective method to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties. Our objective is to establish a revolutionary new early design process, by developing non-deterministic physics-based probabilistic design tools, which will include all the life cycle processes. Breakthroughs will be sought in speed, accuracy, intelligence, and usability of the system. This paper is concerned with the usefulness of parametric optimization method coupled with a Navier-Stokes analysis code for the aero-thermodynamic design of turbomachinery combustor liner. The interconnection between the CFD code and NESSUS codes facilitated the coupling between the thermal profiles and structural design. We have developed new concepts for reducing the computational cost of unsteady, three-dimensional, compressible aerodynamic analyses for multistage turbomachinery flows. The flow was modeled by the three-dimensional Favre-Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations using the k-epsilon turbulence closure, which was integrated using an implicit third-order upwind solver. The methodology developed in this paper is expected to lead to the design optimization of turbomachinery blades.

Gorla, Rama S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines) with the fast probability integration technique (FPI). FPI was developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The results were plotted in the form of cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity analyses and were compared with results from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison showed that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system. The current work addressed the application of the probabilistic approach to assess specific fuel consumption, engine thrust, and weight. Similarly, the approach can be used to assess other aspects of aeropropulsion system performance, such as cost, acoustic noise, and emissions. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Tong, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Use of Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate the Systems Impact of Component Design Improvements on Large Turbofan Engines

Probabilistic Structural Analysis (PSA) is now commonly used for predicting the distribution of time/cycles to failure of turbine blades and other engine components. These distributions are typically based on fatigue/fracture and creep failure modes of these components. Additionally, reliability analysis is used for taking test data related to particular failure modes and calculating failure rate distributions of electronic and electromechanical components. How can these individual failure time distributions of structural, electronic and electromechanical component failure modes be effectively combined into a top level model for overall system evaluation of component upgrades, changes in maintenance intervals, or line replaceable unit (LRU) redesign? This paper shows an example of how various probabilistic failure predictions for turbine engine components can be evaluated and combined to show their effect on overall engine performance. A generic model of a turbofan engine was modeled using various Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools (Quantitative Risk Assessment Software (QRAS) etc.). Hypothetical PSA results for a number of structural components along with mitigation factors that would restrict the failure mode from propagating to a Loss of Mission (LOM) failure were used in the models. The output of this program includes an overall failure distribution for LOM of the system. The rank and contribution to the overall Mission Success (MS) is also given for each failure mode and each subsystem. This application methodology demonstrates the effectiveness of PRA for assessing the performance of large turbine engines. Additionally, the effects of system changes and upgrades, the application of different maintenance intervals, inclusion of new sensor detection of faults and other upgrades were evaluated in determining overall turbine engine reliability.

Packard, Michael H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic and Possibilistic Analyses of the Strength of a Bonded Joint

The effects of uncertainties on the predicted strength of a single lap shear joint are examined. Probabilistic and possibilistic methods are used to account for uncertainties. A total of ten variables are assumed to be random, with normal distributions. Both Monte Carlo Simulation and the First Order Reliability Method are used to determine the probability of failure. Triangular membership functions with upper and lower bounds located at plus or minus three standard deviations are used to model uncertainty in the possibilistic analysis. The alpha cut (or vertex) method is used to evaluate the possibility of failure. Linear and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses are used calculate the response of the joint; fracture in the adhesive and material strength failure in the strap are used to evaluate its strength. Although probabilistic and possibilistic analyses provide significantly more information than do conventional deterministic analyses, they are computationally expensive. A novel scaling approach is developed and used to substantially reduce the computational cost of the probabilistic and possibilistic analyses. The possibilistic approach for treating uncertainties appears to be viable during the conceptual and preliminary design stages when limited data are available and high accuracies are not needed. However, this viability is mixed with several cautions that are discussed herein.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗

NASA NTRS2003

Exploration of Advanced Probabilistic and Stochastic Design Methods

The primary objective of the three year research effort was to explore advanced, non-deterministic aerospace system design methods that may have relevance to designers and analysts. The research pursued emerging areas in design methodology and leverage current fundamental research in the area of design decision-making, probabilistic modeling, and optimization. The specific focus of the three year investigation was oriented toward methods to identify and analyze emerging aircraft technologies in a consistent and complete manner, and to explore means to make optimal decisions based on this knowledge in a probabilistic environment. The research efforts were classified into two main areas. First, Task A of the grant has had the objective of conducting research into the relative merits of possible approaches that account for both multiple criteria and uncertainty in design decision-making. In particular, in the final year of research, the focus was on the comparison and contrasting between three methods researched. Specifically, these three are the Joint Probabilistic Decision-Making (JPDM) technique, Physical Programming, and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. The next element of the research, as contained in Task B, was focused upon exploration of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) methodology developed at ASDL, especially with regards to identification of research needs in the baseline method through implementation exercises. The end result of Task B was the documentation of the evolution of the method with time and a technology transfer to the sponsor regarding the method, such that an initial capability for execution could be obtained by the sponsor. Specifically, the results of year 3 efforts were the creation of a detailed tutorial for implementing the TIES method. Within the tutorial package, templates and detailed examples were created for learning and understanding the details of each step. For both research tasks, sample files and tutorials are attached in electronic form with the enclosed CD.

Marvis, Dimitri N.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Exploration of Advanced Probabilistic and Stochastic Design Methods

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Application of Probabilistic Analysis to Aircraft Impact Dynamics

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stressstrain behaviors, laminated composites, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated responses. Several criteria are used to determine that a response surface method is the most appropriate probabilistic approach. The work is extended to compare optimization results with and without probabilistic constraints.

Lyle, Karen H.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Unsteady Aerodynamic Analysis

Probabilistic CFD design is needed because we are asked to do more with less. To cost effectively accomplish the design task, we need to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties (variables) in the design. Probabilistic design is one effective method to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties. Our objective is to establish a revolutionary new early design process, by developing non-deterministic physics-based probabilistic design tools, which will include all the life cycle processes. This work was concerned with the usefulness of parametric optimization method coupled with a Navier-Stokes analysis code for the aero-thermodynamic design of turbomachinery combustor liner. The interconnection between the CFD code and NESSUS codes will facilitate the coupling between the thermal profiles and structural design. We have developed new concepts for reducing the computational cost of unsteady, three-dimensional, compressible aerodynamic analyses for multistage turbomachinery flows. The flow was modeled by the three-dimensional Favre-Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations using the k-E turbulence closure, which was integrated using an implicit third-order upwind solver. The methodology developed in this work is expected to lead to the design optimization of turbomachinery blades.

Gorla, Rama S. R.↗