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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine

Here, we propose a continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine (CVQBM) using a powerful energy-based neural network. It can be realized experimentally on a continuous-variable (CV) photonic quantum computer. We used a CV quantum imaginary time evolution (QITE) algorithm to prepare the essential thermal state and then designed the CVQBM to proficiently generate continuous probability distributions. We applied our method to both classical and quantum data. Using real-world classical data, such as synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images, we generated probability distributions. For quantum data, we used the output of CV quantum circuits. We obtained high fidelity and low Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence showing that our CVQBM learns distributions from given data well and generates data sampling from that distribution efficiently. We also discussed the experimental feasibility of our proposed CVQBM. Our method can be applied to a wide range of real-world problems by choosing an appropriate target distribution (corresponding to, e.g., SAR images, medical images, and risk management in finance). Moreover, our CVQBM is versatile and could be programmed to perform tasks beyond generation, such as anomaly detection.

SAR images↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observable measurement-induced transitions

One of the main postulates of quantum mechanics is that measurements destroy quantum coherence (wave function collapse). Recently it was discovered that in a many-body system dilute local measurements still preserve some coherence across the entire system. As the measurement density is increased, a phase transition occurs that is characterized by the disentanglement of different parts of the system. Unfortunately, this transition is impossible to observe experimentally for macroscopic systems because it requires an exponentially costly full tomography of the many-body wave function or a comparison with the simulation on an oracle classical computer. In this work we report the discovery of another measurement-induced phase transition that can be observed experimentally if quantum dynamics can be reversed. On one side of this phase transition the quantum information encoded in some part of the Hilbert space is fully recovered after the time inversion. On the other side, all quantum information is corrupted. This transition also manifests itself as the change in the behavior of the probability to observe the same measurement outcome in the process that consists of identical blocks repeated many times. In each block the unitary evolution is followed by the measurement. On one side of the transition the probability decreases exponentially with the number of repetitions, on the other it tends to a constant as the number of repetitions is increased. We confirm the existence of the proposed phase transition through numerical simulations of realistic quantum circuits and analytical calculations using an effective random-matrix theory model.

Measurement-induced phase transitions↗
DOE OSTI2026

A spatiotemporally explicit and scalable indicator of intact lands across the conterminous United States, 1986–2023

Globally, ecologically intact areas are increasingly scarce. Agricultural expansion into previously uncultivated areas drives the loss of intact lands that might otherwise exhibit high levels of ecological integrity. Thus, the absence of cultivation can be an indicator of intact lands as measured from remote sensing data and thematic maps. Our objective for this study was to develop and compare tractable approaches based on remotely sensed satellite data to map spatial patterns of potentially intact lands across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). Using annual cultivation probabilities derived from satellite observations, we classified and mapped potentially intact lands across CONUS from 1986 to 2023 at 30 m resolution. We created three maps, first by applying a constant cultivation probability threshold across CONUS, second by varying the threshold state-by-state to maximize state-level overall accuracies, and third by equalizing the state-level user's and producer's accuracies to minimize classification bias. Validation against 800,000+ independent ground samples resulted in CONUS-level overall accuracies ≥85% for the roughly 660 million ha of potentially intact land. Map accuracy varied with the proportion of potentially intact lands across regions, with the Pacific-Mountain and Great Plains regions exhibiting the highest accuracies, while Eastern CONUS exhibited a greater mix of potentially intact and non-intact lands and more moderate map accuracies. These novel maps and approaches can be adapted to different spatiotemporal extents to support conservation and production decisions ranging from species and ecosystems protection to reducing land conversion and climate mitigation.

agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlating and Simulating Socio-Demographically Driven Residential End-Use Activity Schedules

Incorporating socio-demographic and behavioral considerations into decision-support tools is crucial for identifying gaps and addressing consumer needs to ensure reliable and affordable energy solutions. In energy simulation models, the correlation between socio-demographics and time-use behavior is not well-captured. Thus, we developed a large-scale simulation workflow to generate schedules for 10 residential activities across 24 population segments defined by age, income, and employment status. Using pre-pandemic 2015-2019 American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data, we used ANOVA to confirm the correlation between demographic factors and time use. We explored three k-modes clustering methods-backward, forward, and a new hybrid approach-to delineate the occupancy patterns based on demographics. Using the probability of cluster membership for each population segment and a time inhomogeneous Markov chain to generate activity transition probabilities for each cluster, we simulated 50,000 schedules per segment and validated them against the ATUS data. The hybrid method produced the most socio-demographically differentiated clusters while demonstrating comparable performance to other approaches, with an overall root mean square error of 0.12 for both weekday and weekend schedules. Thus, the hybrid method, where each cluster is dominated by certain demographic segments and occupancy patterns, offers more modeling versatility in terms of scenario analysis. The new workflow improves the socio demographic differentiation of energy consumption by considering differences in time use. This approach enables future research on demographically segmented time of use (TOU) energy consumption, including impacts of TOU utility bills and rate analysis, long-run marginal emissions, and energy retrofits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Wildfire & Energy data toward State Prioritization Index (WESPI)

Energy infrastructure can both induce and suffer risks from wildfires ranging from direct damage to energy assets such as substations and power lines to Public Safety Power Shutoffs. Recent wildfire events underscore the need for data-driven approaches that help states and utilities proactively plan for wildfire risk. Existing national tools such as Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)’s National Risk Index (NRI) are valuable for community hazard planning. However, they are less suited for energy infrastructure, as they emphasize population and building exposure rather than system vulnerabilities. In this paper, we explore relationships between energy and wildfire data and present a Wildfire-Energy State Prioritization Index (WESPI). Our methodology combines data from the US Forest Service’s Fire Simulation (FSIM) dataset with energy resilience metrics, historical fire incidents, and geospatial data on transmission lines and fire stations. Correlation analyses suggest that FSIM burn probability is more strongly associated with power outage metrics (ρ = 0.32) than NRI wildfire frequency, and counties with a greater density of fire stations experience more frequent, but less intense wildfires. We further leverage data for burn probability, transmission line density, and fire station density to develop a Wildfire-Energy State Prioritization Index (WESPI) to highlight counties where wildfire hazard, infrastructure exposure, and limited suppression capacity converge. The index provides a consistent, scalable framework for state energy offices and utilities to screen counties for vegetation management, optimization of outage management system deployment, and to inform wildfire mitigation plans.

Critical infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Eulerian three-fluid flow framework for the study of fuel dispersal behavior under loss-of-coolant accident conditions

As the nuclear industry explores new fuel designs to accommodate increased burnup, studying fuel behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents is essential for ensuring the safe operation of light-water reactors. Here, this study presents a computational model to simulate the intricate three-phase flow dynamics of fuel dispersal following cladding breach, where solid fuel particles and carrier fission gases interact with the surrounding liquid or gas medium. The model utilizes a Eulerian three-fluid framework to depict the phase interaction within interpenetrating continua, treating fragmented fuel as granular material. Closure relationships for bulk-flow properties of the solid phase and detailed interfacial exchange terms in high-temperature, high-speed gas-solid-liquid flow scenarios are proposed. The model was validated using adiabatic experimental results in the literature, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched probability density functions reported in experimental studies. Key highlights of this study include the theoretical description of a coupled three-phase flow with phase change, interpretation of the high-pressure boundary conditions and insights into the transient behavior of gas-solid-liquid phase dynamics during a simulated high-speed dispersal event.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stress evolution and creep deformation in solid-oxide electrolysis cell systems – Dynamic modeling and multi-objective optimization to maximize stack life and efficiency

Here, this study develops a thermal stress model of solid-oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) including a model for creep strain and failure probability that is integrated with a dynamic plant-wide model of a hydrogen production process. Uncertainties in key material properties of the cell are quantified to assess their impact on stress profile variability. The oxygen electrode is found to have about 10 times higher failure probability compared to the fuel electrode. The study shows that if the stack operation is not optimized, cycling operation would lead to stress build-up eventually leading to catastrophic failure. A dynamic optimization problem is set up for obtaining the optimal operational profile considering a variable hydrogen production rate. Due to the tradeoff between the efficiency and stress build-up, the dynamic optimization problem is multi-objective. It is observed that the optimizer can considerably reduce the stress build-up (i.e., can increase the stack life) albeit at the cost of a lower efficiency thus exhibiting strong tradeoffs between capital and operating costs. For example, if the stack would be replaced in 0.5 yr, specific energy requirement would be 48.5 kWh/kg H 2 while for a stack replacement time of about 6 yr, the specific energy requirement rises by about 4.2 %.

SOEC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of neutron noise analysis in detecting special nuclear materials

Reliable and rapid inspection techniques play a vital role in preventing illicit trafficking of special nuclear materials. Active interrogation systems using neutrons produced by portable, high-flux deuterium-deuterium or deuterium-tritium neutron generators are being actively developed as a secondary scanning tool for this purpose. In this study, a neutron noise analysis-based approach for detecting unshielded and shielded special nuclear materials by using a pulsed deuterium-tritium neutron generator was evaluated. Here, this approach analyzes the fluctuation of neutron counts. Its performance was quantified with regard to time-to-detection to achieve a minimum probability of detection of 99% and a probability of false alarm of less than 1% considering various amounts of special nuclear materials and different shielding configurations. It was demonstrated that this approach could detect 17 uranium slugs in 5 s given a neutron generator yield of 8.1 × 10 7 n/s. These slugs could be detected within a reasonable time frame (200 s) when they were shielded by 10.16 cm of high-density polyethylene. The results obtained using the neutron noise analysis approach were compared with those obtained using the commonly used differential die-away analysis technique, a sensitive technique for detecting the presence of fissile materials by utilizing the prompt fission neutrons produced when the source neutrons from a neutron generator are completely diminished. For example, the time to detect 2 unshielded uranium slugs was 2.1 s when using the differential die-away analysis technique; it increased to 93 s for the neutron noise analysis approach. Although the noise analysis-based approach exhibits an overall performance which is not as good as that of differential die-away, neutron noise provides an alternative method for effective detection of special nuclear materials.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D probabilistic fracture mechanics / computational fluid dynamics simulation of a reactor pressure vessel under transient conditions

Reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) are safety-critical light-water-reactor components that, under irradiation, experience long-term material degradation in the form of embrittlement. This can increase their susceptibility to fracture under thermal-shock conditions, which could occur during off-normal transients such as loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). During a LOCA, the most severe conditions for the RPV occur when emergency core cooling water is injected through the cold legs into the water-and-steam-filled RPV. The rapid cooling of the downcomer and internal RPV surface causes decreased temperature and elevated thermally driven tensile stresses in the RPV wall. This, combined with long-term material embrittlement, may cause fracture initiation at pre-existing flaws, challenging the integrity of the RPV. Assessing RPV integrity during transients with a large spatial variation in the coolant temperature requires a modeling approach that considers the effects of spatially varying coolant temperature on the fracture probability of a population of flaws distributed throughout the RPV, accounting for spatially varying embrittlement. Here, the present study addresses this need by demonstrating first-of-its-kind coupling of a high-fidelity 3D computational fluid dynamics code with 3D probabilistic fracture mechanics This was accomplished using representative models of a pressurized-water reactor subjected to small- and medium-break LOCA conditions, both of which can result in large spatial temperature variations. While the observed impact of accounting for 3D effects was minimal under the small-break LOCA this study indicates a significant increase in the probability of fracture initiation under the medium-break LOCA when 3D effects are considered, relative to a spatially uniform cooling scenario.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of deformed intruder structures along the N=50 magic number: Insights from 83 Se

The 83 Se nucleus was studied in the context of shape coexistence employing a 82 Se(d,p) 83 Se reaction performed in inverse kinematics with the GALILEO-II + SPIDER setup to reach the desired selectivity on the reaction channel of interest via γ -particle coincidences. The lifetimes of the 1/2 + 540-keV and 3/2$^{+}_{3}$ 1100-keV low-lying intruder states of 83 Se were measured for the first time by employing the Recoil Distance Doppler Shift and the Doppler Shift Attenuation Method. The deduced transition probabilities, together with the mixing ratios obtained from a separate neutron-capture experiment performed at ILL with the FIPPS array, are compared and discussed in the framework of shell-model calculations performed with the PFSDG-U Hamiltonian. Large transition probabilities of hundreds of e 2 fm 4 were found for the E 2 decays of the states built on top of the intruders, pointing to the development of quadrupole collectivity and large deformation in the proximity of N = 50 shell closure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Complex exposure-burial history and Pleistocene sediment recycling in the dead sea rift with implications for the age of the Acheulean site of ‘Ubeidiya

Here, we present early Pleistocene burial ages of the ‘Ubeidiya Formation sediments in the Jordan Valley, a segment of the Dead Sea Rift Valley. A minimum age of ∼1.1 Ma is constrained both by paleomagnetic analysis and U-Pb dating of Melanopsis shells. Simple cosmogenic burial ages (i.e., one very long exposure period followed by one period of burial) calculated from the ratios of 26 Al to 10 Be and 10 Be concentrations indicate ages of ∼3 Ma, contradicting the geological and paleomagnetic constraints as well as a reasonable age of the ‘Ubeidiya archeological site, as it contains human remains. A more sophisticated way of treating the results, by combining numerical modeling of cosmogenic nuclide build up during repeated burial-exposure cycles, paleomagnetic analysis (indicating reverse polarity) and a minimum burial age of 1.1 Ma set by U-Pb dating of Melanopsis shells, suggests two most probable time slots (1.19-1.77 and 1.93- 2.14 Ma) for the absolute age of the ‘Ubeidiya Formation. However, the skewed distribution of cosmogenic isotope burial ages, with a median age of 2.05 Ma, indicates a much higher probability of the older ages, most likely >1.9 Ma. The exposure-burial history that emerges from the model implies recycling of sediments previously deposited and buried in the rift valley, between 4.5 and 3.2 Ma, and subsequently exhumed, eroded, transported and then redeposited along the ‘Ubeidiya paleo lake shoreline.

Acheulean↗
DOE OSTI2025

DONKEY: A Flexible and Accurate Algorithm for Clustering

We propose an accurate clustering algorithm suitable for the varied and multidimensional data sets that correspond to temporal snapshots from on-the-fly nonadiabatic trajectory-based simulations of photoexcited dynamics. The algorithm approximates the underlying probability density function using variable kernel density estimation, with local maxima corresponding to cluster centers. Each data point is then assigned to one of the maxima by employing a maximization procedure. Finally, clusters artificially separated by minor fluctuations in the probability density are merged. The algorithm does not require parameter tuning, which ensures flexibility and reduces the risk of bias. It is tested on several synthetic data sets, where it consistently outperforms conventional clustering algorithms. As a final example, the algorithm is applied to the excited dynamics of the norbornadiene ⇌ quadricyclane (C 7 H 8 ) molecular photoswitch, demonstrating how distinct reaction pathways can be identified.

algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deriving the Landauer Principle From the Quantum Shannon Entropy

We derive an expression to determine the equilibrium probability distribution of a quantum state in contact with a noisy thermal environment that formally separates contributions from quantum and classical forms of probabilistic uncertainty. A statistical mechanical interpretation of this probability distribution enables us to derive an expression for the minimum free energy costs for arbitrary (reversible or irreversible) quantum state changes. In conclusion, based on this derivation, we demonstrate that–in contrast to classical systems–the free energy required to erase or reset a qubit depends sensitively on both the fidelity of the target state and on the physical properties of the environment, such as the number of quantum bath states, due primarily to the entropic effects of system-bath entanglement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Theory of Cation Solvation in the Helmholtz Layer of Li-Ion Battery Electrolytes

The solvation environments of Li + in conventional nonaqueous battery electrolytes, such as LiPF 6 in mixtures of ethylene carbaronate (EC) and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC), are often used to rationalize transport properties and solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation. Solvation environments in the compact electrical double layer (EDL) next to the electrode, also known as the Helmholtz layer, determine (partially) what species can react to form the SEI, with bulk solvation environments often being used as a proxy. Here, we develop and test a theory of cation solvation in the Helmholtz layer of nonaqueous Li-ion battery electrolytes. First, we validate the theory against bulk and diffuse EDL atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of LiPF 6 EC/EMC mixtures as a function of surface charge, where we find the theory can qualitatively capture the solvation environments. Next, we turn to the Helmholtz layer, where we find the main effect of the solvation structures next to the electrode is an apparent reduction in the number of binding sites between Li + and the solvents, again where we find reasonable agreement with our developed theory. Finally, by solving a simplified version of the theory, we find that the probability of Li + binding to each solvent remains equal to the bulk probability, suggesting that the bulk solvation environments are a reasonable place to start when understanding battery electrolytes. Our developed formalism can be parametrized from bulk MD simulations and used to predict the solvation environments in the Helmholtz layer through reducing the number of available coordination sites, which can be used to determine what could react and form the SEI.

Helmholtz↗
DOE OSTI2025

Growth of Hexagonal Boron Nitride from Molten Nickel Solutions: A Reactive Molecular Dynamics Study

Metal flux methods are excellent for synthesizing high-quality hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) crystals, but the atomic mechanisms of hBN nucleation and growth in these systems are poorly understood and difficult to probe experimentally. Here, we harness classical reactive molecular dynamics (ReaxFF) to unravel the mechanisms of hBN synthesis from liquid nickel solvent over time scales up to 30 ns. These simulations mimic experimental conditions by including relatively large liquid nickel slabs containing dissolved boron and a molecular nitrogen gas phase. Overall, the reaction takes place almost exclusively on the surface of the liquid nickel, owing to the low solubility of nitrogen in bulk nickel and the intermediate species’ preference for the metal–gas interface. The formation of hBN invariably begins by reaction of dinitrogen with nickel-solvated boron atoms at the surface, forming intermediate N–N–B species, which typically evolve into B–N–B units through a short-lived intermediate where a single nitrogen atom is coordinated by one nitrogen and two boron atoms. The resulting B–N–B units, in turn, coalesce with growing hBN nuclei and carry nitrogen between hBN nanocrystals in an Ostwald ripening process. The amount of hBN produced on the tens of nanosecond time scale depends critically on the boron concentration, while having a much weaker dependence on the N 2 pressure for the regime considered (N 2 pressures of 2.5–10 MPa, Ni–B solutions with 6–12% boron by atom fraction). The highest rate of hBN formation occurs at the lowest temperature considered (1750 K, just above the melting point of nickel), while no hBN sheets are formed at 2000 K or above. An analysis of the transition pathways for nitrogen atoms shows that the final step, incorporation of small B–N motifs into larger hBN sheets, is the rate-limiting step in the regimes considered. While raising the temperature from 1750 to 2000 K has little effect on the formation of intermediates (N–N–B, B–N–B, etc.), the lack of large hBN sheets at temperatures >1900 K is explained by decreased probability of the final step and increased probability of breakup of hBN into B–N motifs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Highly Active Hydrogen Evolution Reaction (HER) Catalysts Formed by Energetic Pt n Cluster Deposition: Deposition Dynamics and the HER Mechanism

Mass-selected Pt n + (n ≤ 7) were deposited at variable energies on highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG), creating highly active hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) electrocatalysts. HER mass activities were ~2 to >10 times higher than those for the surface atoms in bulk Pt and for Pt n deposited on several other supports. Thus, high activity reflects the Pt-C structures formed by energetic Pt n -HOPG impacts, in addition to high Pt surface availability. The Pt n /HOPG electrodes were probed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, low energy ion scattering, and electron microscopy. Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) was used to simulate Pt n - HOPG impacts, revealing the types of structures formed at different energies, then DFT was used to probe their most important HER pathways. For low deposition energies, the Pt n deposit onto the HOPG surface with sub-unit sticking probability, aggregating at defects. With increasing deposition energy, the sticking probability initially decreases, then rises to unity as subplantation and defect creation allow formation of strongly bonded platinum-carbon structures. Barriers for HER on these structures were found to be low and weakly dependent on Pt n size, consistent with experiment. The activities were highest for small covalently-bonded Pt-C structures created at high deposition energies. The larger aggregated structures formed at low energies were less active, but still substantially better than the bulk Pt surface monolayer. The catalysts were stable in repeated potential cycling at reducing potentials, but electrodes containing subplanted Pt became more active when scanned to oxidizing potentials, due to emergence of subplanted Pt onto the surface.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below‐normal precipitation and terminated by average or above‐normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming‐driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗