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Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-speed Commercial Aircraft - Final Report

SpaceWorks has concluded a 9-month research and development project aimed at addressing key questions in NASA’s effort to anticipate, understand, and ultimately support the emerging high-speed commercial flight market. The current project is a continuation of the Life Cycle Cost Modeling of High-Speed Commercial Aircraft1 , which is a follow-on to a 2021 study led by Deloitte and SpaceWorks entitled Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study2 . Based in part on the recommendations of these prior studies, the objectives of this current effort were to expand the trade space to include Mach 1.5 aircraft and conduct additional trade studies. These included utilizing tech stops to extend serviceable range between city pairs, mixed aircraft fleets based on market size, flight scheduling to maximize value of the travel opportunity, and scenarios with multiple service operators. Additionally, SpaceWorks conducted new market surveys and research to update air passengers’ willingness-to-pay for highspeed flights given the changes in macroeconomic conditions since the start of the Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study with Deloitte. Ultimately, the new data and capability to evaluate all the trade studies were implemented in a new simulation environment called MIDAS (Multi-market Integrated Dynamic Aerospace Simulation). This sophisticated tool, implemented using AnyLogic software, utilizes agent-based and discrete event simulation (DES) techniques to provide highly detailed analysis and assessment of the high-speed aircraft market problem.

high-speed↗

Space station control center architecture

The Space Station control center (SSCC) is under the cognizance of the Johnson Space Center and is located adjacent to the Shuttle's mission control center. Responsibility for design, development, and operations of the control center is the responsibility of the mission operations directorate at JSC. Space Station Ground Systems Division is responsible for design and development of the control center systems which is currently in process under the mission support contractor team led by Loral Space Information Systems. It is early in the life cycle of the SSCC project. System functional design review was completed. Subsystem requirements are now being developed and reviewed. A new facility will be available for development activities.

Schmalz, Karen↗

The Life Cycle Application of Intelligent Software Modeling for the First Materials Science Research Rack

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been funding development of intelligent software models to benefit payload ground operations for nearly a decade. Experience gained from simulator development and real-time monitoring and control is being applied to engineering design, testing, and operation of the First Material Science Research Rack (MSRR-1). MSRR-1 is the first rack in a suite of three racks comprising the Materials Science Research Facility (MSRF) which will operate on the International Space Station (ISS). The MSRF will accommodate advanced microgravity investigations in areas such as the fields of solidification of metals and alloys, thermo-physical properties of polymers, crystal growth studies of semiconductor materials, and research in ceramics and glasses. The MSRR-1 is a joint venture between NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) to study the behavior of different materials during high temperature processing in a low gravity environment. The planned MSRR-1 mission duration is five (5) years on-orbit and the total design life is ten (IO) years. The MSRR-1 launch is scheduled on the third Utilization Flight (UF-3) to ISS, currently in February of 2003). The objective of MSRR-1 is to provide an early capability on the ISS to conduct material science, materials technology, and space product research investigations in microgravity. It will provide a modular, multi-user facility for microgravity research in materials crystal growth and solidification. An intelligent software model of MSRR-1 is under development and will serve multiple purposes to support the engineering analysis, testing, training, and operational phases of the MSRR-1 life cycle development. The G2 real-time expert system software environment developed by Gensym Corporation was selected as the intelligent system shell for this development work based on past experience gained and the effectiveness of the programming environment. Our approach of multi- uses of the simulation model and its intuitive graphics capabilities is providing a concurrent engineering environment for rapid prototyping and development. Operational schematics of the MSRR-1 electrical, thermal control, vacuum access, and gas supply systems, and furnace inserts are represented graphically in the environment. Logic to represent first order engineering calculations is coded into the knowledge base to simulate the operational behavior of the MSRR-1 systems. An example of engineering data provided includes electrical currents, voltages, operational power, temperatures, thermal fluid flow rates. pressures, and component status indications. These type of data are calculated and displayed at appropriate instrumentation points, and the schematics are animated to reflect the simulated operational status of the MSRR-1. The software control functions are also simulated to represent appropriate operational behavior based on automated control and response to commands received by the crew or ground controllers. The first benefit of this simulation environment is being realized in the high fidelity engineering analysis results from the electrical power system G2 model. Secondly, the MSRR-1 simulation model will be embedded with a hardware mock-up of the MSRR-1 to provide crew training on MSRR-1 integrated payload operations. G2 gateway code will output the simulated instrumentation values, termed as telemetry, in a flight-like data stream so that the crew has realistic and accurate simulated MSRR-1 data on the flight displays which will be designed for crew use. The simulation will also respond appropriately to crew or ground initiated commands, which will be part of normal facility operations. A third use of the G2 model is being planned; the MSRR-1 simulation will be integrated with additional software code as part of the test configuration of the primary onboard computer, or Master Controller, for MSRR-1. We will take advantage of the G2 capability to simulate the flight like data stream to test flight software responses and behavior. A fourth use of the G2 model will be to train the Ground Support Personnel that will monitor the MSRR-1 systems and payloads while they are operating aboard the ISS. The intuitive, schematic based environment will provide an excellent foundation for personnel to understand the integrated configuration and operation of the MSRR-1, and the anticipated telemetry feedback based on operational modes of the equipment. Expert monitoring features will be enhanced to provide a smart monitoring environment for the operators. These features include: (1) Animated, intuitive schematic-based displays which reflect telemetry values, (1) Real-time plotting of simulated or incoming sensor values, (3) High/Low exception monitoring for analog data, (4) Expected state monitoring for discrete data, (5) Data trending, (6) Automated malfunction procedure execution to diagnose problems, (7) Look ahead capability to planned MSRR-1 activities in the onboard timeline. And finally, the logic to calculate telemetry values will be deactivated, and the same environment will interface to the incoming data for the real-time telemetry stream to schematically represent the onboard hardware configuration. G2 will be the foundation for the real-time monitoring and control environment. In summary, our MSRR-1 simulation model spans many elements of the life cycle development of this project: Engineering Analysis, Test and Checkout, Training of Crew and Ground Personnel, and Real-time monitoring and control. By utilizing the unique features afforded by an expert system development environment, we have been able to synergize a powerful tool capable of addressing our project needs at every phase of project development.

Rice, Amanda↗

NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Handbook

This handbook is a companion to NPR 7120.5E, NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements and supports the implementation of the requirements by which NASA formulates and implements space flight programs and projects. Its focus is on what the program or project manager needs to know to accomplish the mission, but it also contains guidance that enhances the understanding of the high-level procedural requirements. (See Appendix C for NPR 7120.5E requirements with rationale.) As such, it starts with the same basic concepts but provides context, rationale, guidance, and a greater depth of detail for the fundamental principles of program and project management. This handbook also explores some of the nuances and implications of applying the procedural requirements, for example, how the Agency Baseline Commitment agreement evolves over time as a program or project moves through its life cycle.

Michael P Blythe↗

PACE Technical Report Series, Volume 9: PACE Applications Plan

This volume presents PACE mission’s plan for development and execution of a PACE Applications Program. NASA maintains an Applied Sciences Program (https://appliedsciences.nasa.gov) to help institutions and individuals make better decisions about our environment, food, water, health and safety through the use of NASA data. In 2016, NASA Headquarters began requiring all flight projects to implement a Project Applications Program with the purpose of: (a) scoping and developing applied research and applications as part of the overall mission concept; (b) demonstrating the project’s benefit to society and contributions to the achievement of societal outcomes; (c) identifying specific product applications and Communities of Potential to better understand the impacts and benefit from using project products and models; (d) increasing the utility of data products; and (e) fostering a Community of Practice who can work with the project throughout the emission life cycle. In response to and in support of this NASA Headquarters directive, the PACE mission developed this PACE Applications Program Plan. While consideration of applications and applied sciences has always been embedded into PACE, the Applications Program truly kicked into high gear in December 2019 (see https://pace.gsfc.nasa.gov). At the time of this writing, the number of PACE Early Adopters has already reached 20. And, the first PACE Applications Workshop will be held (virtually) in late September 2020, with 500 attendees registered. My congratulations and thanks to the PACE Applications Program team for a tremendous first year.

Maria Tzortziou↗

An Automatic Light Rain Detection Algorithm on NASA MPLNET Lidar Observations in the Frame of WMO GALION Project

The water cycle strongly influences life on Earth. In particular, the precipitation modifies the atmospheric column thermodynamics through the process of evaporation and serves as a proxy for latent heat modulation. For this reason, a correct precipitation parameterization (especially low-intensity precipitation) at global scale, bedsides improving our understanding of the hydrological cycle, it is crucial to reduce the associated uncertainty of the global climate models to correctly forecast future scenarios, i.e. to apply fast mitigation strategies. In this study we developed an algorithm to automatically detect precipitation from lidar measurements obtained by the National and Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse lidar network (MPLNET) permanent observational site in Goddard. The algorithm, once full operational, will deliver in Near Real Time (latency 1.5h) a new rain mask product that will be publicly available on MPLNET website as part of the new Version 3 Level 1.5 data. The methodology, based on an image processing technique, can detect only light precipitation events (defined by intensity and duration) as the morphological filters used through the detection process are applied on the lidar volume depolarization ratio range corrected composite images, i.e. heavy rain events are unusable as the lidar signal is completely extinguished after few meters in the precipitation or no signal detected because of the water accumulated on the receiver optics. Results from the algorithm, besides filling a gap in precipitation and virga detection by radars, are of particular interest for the scientific community because will help to better understand long-term aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol atmospheric removal (scavenging effect) by rain as multi-year database being available for several MPLNET permanent observational sites across the globe. Moreover, we developed the automatic algorithm at Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC) Barcelona, the unique permanent observation station member of MPLNET and the European Aerosol Lidar Network (EARLINET) In the future the algorithm can be then easily applied to any other lidar and/or ceilometer network infrastructure in the frame of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Aerosol Watch (GAW) aerosol lidar observation network (GALION)

Simone Lolli↗

An evaluation of programmer/analyst workstations

Very few automated tools were available to support software requirements analysis and design even though improvements in quality during these phases appear to offer the greatest leverage for improving the quality and productivity of the overall software development process. Recently, however, some such tools have appeared on the market. An industry survey, and an in-house evaluation of two commercial products by programmers and analysts was undertaken to determine which tool is the best to support programmers and analysts through life cycle development. A tool was selected for full implementation on a project, where complete analysis of software statistics over the system life cycle will determine whether or not quality and productivity improvements have actually occurred. The results of the industry survey and in-house evaluation are summarized.

Koerner, K.↗

An Approach to Tailoring Major Technical Reviews Based on Project Characteristics and Stakeholder Interests

There are numerous technical reviews that occur throughout the systems engineering process life cycle. Many are well known by project managers and stakeholders such as developers and end users, an example of much is the critical design review (CDR). This major milestone for a large, complex new project may last two or more days, include an extensive agenda of topics, and entail hundreds of hours of developer time to prepare presentation materials and associated documents. Additionally, the weeks of schedule spent on review preparation is at least partly at the expense of other work. This paper suggests an approach for tailoring technical reviews, based on the project characteristics and the project manager s identification of the key stakeholders and understanding of their most important issues and considerations. With this insight the project manager can communicate to, manage expectations oc and establish formal agreement with the stakeholders as to which reviews, and at what depth, are most appropriate to achieve project success. The authors, coming from diverse organizations and backgrounds, have drawn on their personal experiences and summarized the best practices of their own organizations to create a common framework to provide guidance on the adaptation of design reviews to other system engineers.

Richstein, Alan B.↗

Software life cycle methodologies and environments

Products of this project will significantly improve the quality and productivity of Space Station Freedom Program software processes by: improving software reliability and safety; and broadening the range of problems that can be solved with computational solutions. Projects brings in Computer Aided Software Engineering (CASE) technology for: Environments such as Engineering Script Language/Parts Composition System (ESL/PCS) application generator, Intelligent User Interface for cost avoidance in setting up operational computer runs, Framework programmable platform for defining process and software development work flow control, Process for bringing CASE technology into an organization's culture, and CLIPS/CLIPS Ada language for developing expert systems; and methodologies such as Method for developing fault tolerant, distributed systems and a method for developing systems for common sense reasoning and for solving expert systems problems when only approximate truths are known.

Fridge, Ernest↗

The automated ground network system

The primary goal of the Automated Ground Network System (AGNS) project is to reduce Ground Network (GN) station life-cycle costs. To accomplish this goal, the AGNS project will employ an object-oriented approach to develop a new infrastructure that will permit continuous application of new technologies and methodologies to the Ground Network's class of problems. The AGNS project is a Total Quality (TQ) project. Through use of an open collaborative development environment, developers and users will have equal input into the end-to-end design and development process. This will permit direct user input and feedback and will enable rapid prototyping for requirements clarification. This paper describes the AGNS objectives, operations concept, and proposed design.

Smith, Miles T.↗

SAVANT: Solar Array Verification and Analysis Tool Demonstrated

The photovoltaics (PV) industry is now being held to strict specifications, such as end-oflife power requirements, that force them to overengineer their products to avoid contractual penalties. Such overengineering has been the only reliable way to meet such specifications. Unfortunately, it also results in a more costly process than is probably necessary. In our conversations with the PV industry, the issue of cost has been raised again and again. Consequently, the Photovoltaics and Space Environment Effects branch at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field has been developing a software tool to address this problem. SAVANT, Glenn's tool for solar array verification and analysis is in the technology demonstration phase. Ongoing work has proven that more efficient and less costly PV designs should be possible by using SAVANT to predict the on-orbit life-cycle performance. The ultimate goal of the SAVANT project is to provide a user-friendly computer tool to predict PV on-orbit life-cycle performance. This should greatly simplify the tasks of scaling and designing the PV power component of any given flight or mission. By being able to predict how a particular PV article will perform, designers will be able to balance mission power requirements (both beginning-of-life and end-of-life) with survivability concerns such as power degradation due to radiation and/or contamination. Recent comparisons with actual flight data from the Photovoltaic Array Space Power Plus Diagnostics (PASP Plus) mission validate this approach.

Chock, Ricaurte↗

AX-5 space suit reliability model

The AX-5 is an all metal Extra-vehicular (EVA) space suit currently under consideration for use on Space Station Freedom. A reliability model was developed based on the suit's unique design and on projected joint cycle requirements. Three AX-5 space suit component joints were cycled under simulated load conditions in accordance with NASA's advanced space suit evaluation plan. This paper will describe the reliability model developed, the results of the cycle testing, and an interpretation of the model and test results in terms of projected Mean Time Between Failure for the AX-5. A discussion of the maintenance implications and life cycle for the AX-5 based on this projection is also included.

Reinhardt, AL↗

Advancing the practice of systems engineering at JPL

In FY 2004, JPL launched an initiative to improve the way it practices systems engineering. The Lab's senior management formed the Systems Engineering Advancement (SEA) Project in order to "significantly advance the practice and organizational capabilities of systems engineering at JPL on flight projects and ground support tasks." The scope of the SEA Project includes the systems engineering work performed in all three dimensions of a program, project, or task: 1. the full life-cycle, i.e., concept through end of operations 2. the full depth, i.e., Program, Project, System, Subsystem, Element (SE Levels 1 to 5) 3. the full technical scope, e.g., the flight, ground and launch systems, avionics, power, propulsion, telecommunications, thermal, etc. The initial focus of their efforts defined the following basic systems engineering functions at JPL: systems architecture, requirements management, interface definition, technical resource management, system design and analysis, system verification and validation, risk management, technical peer reviews, design process management and systems engineering task management, They also developed a list of highly valued personal behaviors of systems engineers, and are working to inculcate those behaviors into members of their systems engineering community. The SEA Project is developing products, services, and training to support managers and practitioners throughout the entire system lifecycle. As these are developed, each one needs to be systematically deployed. Hence, the SEA Project developed a deployment process that includes four aspects: infrastructure and operations, communication and outreach, education and training, and consulting support. In addition, the SEA Project has taken a proactive approach to organizational change management and customer relationship management - both concepts and approaches not usually invoked in an engineering environment. This paper'3 describes JPL's approach to advancing the practice of systems engineering at the Lab. It describes the general approach used and how they addressed the three key aspects of change: people, process and technology. It highlights a list of highly valued personal behaviors of systems engineers, discusses the various products, services and training that were developed, describes the deployment approach used, and concludes with several lessons learned.

process improvement↗

Systems Engineering Using Heritage Spacecraft Technology: Lessons Learned from Discovery and New Frontiers Deep Space Missions

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced or heritage systems and the system environment identifies unanticipated issues that result in cost overruns or schedule impacts. The Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays resulting from advanced technology or heritage assumptions for 6 D&NF missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that the cost and schedule growth did not result from technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. Instead, systems engineering processes did not identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the system-wide impacts necessary to implement the heritage or advanced technology. This presentation summarizes the study s findings and offers suggestions for improving the project s ability to identify and manage the risks inherent in the technology and heritage design solution.

Barley, Bryan↗

Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Deep Space Missions

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for four of the five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to result from technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the system-wide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study's lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project's ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.

Barley, Bryan↗

Heritage Systems Engineering Lessons from NASA Deep Space Missions

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for all five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to be the result of technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the systemwide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study s lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project s ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.

Barley, Bryan↗

Reducing NPR 7120.5D to Practice: Preparing for a Life-Cycle Review

In March 2007, NASA issued revised rules for space flight project management, NPR 7120.5D, 'NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements.' Central to the new rules was the construct of Key Decision Points, maturity gates that the project team must pass in order to continue development. In order that the KDP decision be fully informed, the NPR required, as entrance criteria for the gate, the generation and delivery of specified planning, technical, and cost/schedule documents (gate products) and a life-cycle review, the Preliminary Design Review. Building on JPL experience on the Prometheus and Juno projects, the team successfully organized for and conducted these reviews on an aggressive schedule. Key actions were taken to proactively interact with the SRB, produce high-quality gate products with stakeholder review, generate review presentation materials, and handle a myriad of supporting logistical functions. A review preparation team was established, including a Review Captain and leads for documentation, information systems, and logistics, and their roles, responsibilities and task assignments were identified. Aids were produced, including a detailed review preparation schedule and a comprehensive gate products production table. Institutional support was leveraged early and often. Implementation strategy reflected the needs of a nationally-distributed team, as well as applicable export control and IT security requirements. This paper gives a brief overview of the GRAIL mission and its project management challenges, provides a detailed description of project PMSR and PDR preparation and execution activities, including positive and negative lessons learned, and identifies recommendations for future NASA (and non-NASA) project teams.

NPR 7120.5D↗

Software engineering standards and practices

Guidelines are presented for the preparation of a software development plan. The various phases of a software development project are discussed throughout its life cycle including a general description of the software engineering standards and practices to be followed during each phase.

Durachka, R. W.↗