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At least 145 records · Page 8

Advanced Performance Metrics and their Application to the Sensitivity Analysis for Model Validation and Calibration

High-quality generator dynamic models are critical to reliable and accurate power systems studies and planning. With the availability of PMUs, measurement-based approach for model validation has gained significant prominence. In this approach, the quality of a model is analyzed by visually comparing measured generator response with the model-based simulated response for large system disturbances. This paper proposes a new set of performance metrics to assess the model validation results to facilitate automation of the model validation process. In the proposed methodology, first, the slow governor response and comparatively faster oscillatory response are separated, and then a separate set of performance metrics is calculated for each of these two components. These proposed metrics quantify the mismatch between the actual and model-based response in a comprehensive manner without missing any information enabling automation of the process. Furthermore, in this paper, we are also proposing that the sensitivity analysis for model calibration be performed with respect to the proposed metrics for the systematic identification of key parameters. In this work, results obtained using both simulated and real-world case-studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed performance metrics for model validation and their application to the sensitivity analysis for model calibration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Livewire: A Model Platform for Data Quality Assessment and AI Readiness Across DOE Missions

High-quality, well-governed data is essential for accelerating discovery and achieving operational excellence across DOE and national laboratory missions. The Livewire Data Platform is a DOE-supported platform that offers automated assessments of data quality, standardization, provenance, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) readiness. It allows researchers and data practitioners to systematically and easily evaluate datasets against established governance criteria and prepare them for advanced analytics. Livewire addresses critical challenges in DOE's data ecosystem with integrated capabilities for metadata validation, provenance tracking, and schema alignment. This platform's automated workflows assist users in identifying data quality gaps, enhancing interoperability between datasets collected from various stakeholders, and ensuring compliance with DOE data standards, all while reducing manual curation efforts. Additionally, we will discuss its AI readiness framework, which is being developed to prepare datasets for training models, developing advanced analytic tools, and machine learning applications. Using some of the more than one hundred tabular datasets on Livewire, processed with this open-source methodology, we will demonstrate how Livewire can serve as a model for scalable, standards-driven data management. This approach provides a pathway to leverage existing and future datasets within the DOE, boosting innovation and efficiency across national laboratories.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Reanalysis of crackle perception data using logistic and logarithmic fits and sound quality metrics

Mathematical models of human auditory perception (sound quality metrics) are explored for the purpose of fitting human subject data from a prior published study. A variety of linearizing transforms and techniques are employed. Ultimately, a model is identified that predicts 98.9% of the variance in average human subject ratings of crackliness of jet noise waveforms.

Swift, Stephen Hales↗

Evaluation of regional transport of PM2.5 during severe atmospheric pollution episodes in the western Yangtze River Delta, China

During winter 2018, the 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province, Western Yangtze River Delta region, China had very high PM2.5 concentrations and prolonged pollution days. The impact of regional transport in the formation, accumulation, as well as dispersion of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Anhui Province was very significant. This study quantified and analyzed the vertical transport of PM2.5 in three major cities (Hefei, Fuyang, and Suzhou) of Anhui Province in January and July 2018 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The results of the inter-regional transport of PM2.5 revealed the dominant transport pathways for the three cities. The flux mainly flowed into Fuyang from Henan (2.23 and 1.42 kt/day in January and July, respectively) and Bozhou (1.96 and 1.21 kt/day in January and July, respectively), while the main flux from Fuyang flowed into Henan (-2.15 kt/day) and Lu'an (-1.91 kt/day) in January and Henan (-0.34 kt/day) and Bozhou (-0.29 kt/day) in July. In addition, the dominant transport pathways and the heights at which they occurred were identified: the northwest-southeast and northeast-south pathways in both winter and summer at both lower (?300 m) and higher (=300 m) levels for Fuyang; the northwest-south and northeast-southwest pathways in winter (at both lower and upper levels) and northwest-east and northeast-southwest pathways in summer at lower and upper levels for Hefei; and the northwest-southeast and northeast-south pathways in both winter (from 50 m up to the top level) and summer (between 100 and 300 m) for Suzhou. Furthermore, the intensities of daily PM2.5 transport fluxes in Fuyang during the atmospheric pollution episode (APE1) were stronger than the monthly average. These results show that joint emission controls across multiple cities along the identified pathways are urgently needed to reduce winter episodes.

Sulaymon, Ishaq D.↗

Modeling secondary organic aerosol formation from volatile chemical products

Abstract. Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are commonly used consumer and industrial items that are an important source of anthropogenic emissions. Organic compounds from VCPs evaporate on atmospherically relevant timescales and include many species that are secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. However, the chemistry leading to SOA, particularly that of intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs), has not been fully represented in regional-scale models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, which tend to underpredict SOA concentrations in urban areas. Here we develop a model to represent SOA formation from VCP emissions. The model incorporates a new VCP emissions inventory and employs three new classes of emissions: siloxanes, oxygenated IVOCs, and nonoxygenated IVOCs. VCPs are estimated to produce 1.67 µg m−3 of noontime SOA, doubling the current model predictions and reducing the SOA mass concentration bias from −75 % to −58 % when compared to observations in Los Angeles in 2010. While oxygenated and nonoxygenated intermediate-volatility VCP species are emitted in similar quantities, SOA formation is dominated by the nonoxygenated IVOCs. Formaldehyde and SOA show similar relationships to temperature and bias signatures, indicating common sources and/or chemistry. This work suggests that VCPs contribute up to half of anthropogenic SOA in Los Angeles and models must better represent SOA precursors from VCPs to predict the urban enhancement of SOA.

Pennington, Elyse A. (ORCID:0000000317362342)↗

Integrating field observations and process-based modeling to predict watershed water quality under environmental perturbations

Watersheds play a critical role in supplying water resources needed for human use and ecosystem health. Understanding and predicting how, when, and where changes in the quantity and quality of water resources occur under different environmental stresses including extreme events is crucial for sustainable management of water resources under a changing environment. However, few studies have attempted to quantify or identify the factors and process interactions controlling the impact of extreme events across water-shed systems. Only few large-scale studies include coordinated monitoring and modeling efforts, which limits our ability to assess the large-scale impact of extreme events on water supply and quality. Methods are lacking to propagate uncertainty in process understanding through an integrated hydro-biogeochemical model framework and evaluate its importance, thus failing to take full advantage of the information potentially available through transformative advances in characterization technologies from high-resolution mass spectrometry to airborne and satellite-based remote sensing. There are consequent risks to our nations water security and to human and ecosystem health that may become exacerbated with the increasing frequency of extreme events that is projected for the coming decades. This paper reviews the current status of watershed science for both water quantity and quality and identifies critical gaps in our current knowledge and modeling capability in addressing the emergent needs in predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses (i.e., water quantity and quality) under natural and anthropogenic perturbations. We highlight the need to (1) understand how environmental perturbations including extreme events like floods and droughts propagate through watershed systems and assess their short- and long-term impacts on watershed biogeochemistry, water quality and their recovery pathways; (2) develop and improve a watershed water quality model that reflects the state of scientific understanding gained from observations; and (3) construct a data-model fusion system for watershed characterization, process identification, and mechanistic model parameterization. A large base of modeling, monitoring and data capabilities have been built by various federal government agencies given the relevance of water to their critical missions. An emerging need is to build an integrated national capability for watershed water availability and quality that can address water-related missions across multiple federal agencies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Comparison of modular analytical wake models to the Lillgrund wind plant

Efficient and accurate wake models are required for wind plant performance modeling and the suite of engineering processes that support wind plant layout, control, and monitoring. Although many analytical and engineering wake models with low computational costs have been proposed, their ability to represent the power production of large wind plants in a wide range of atmospheric conditions is not completely understood. The following validation study reviews the underlying theory for analytical wake models, outlines quality control procedures for observational data, and compares model results with observational data from the Lillgrund Wind Plant. Lillgrund makes a valuable case study for wake modeling because of its regular arrangement and the relatively close spacing of constituent wind turbines, which lead to regular and significant wake interactions within the wind plant and the development of deep array flow conditions. Formulations for the velocity deficit, wake-added turbulence, and wake superposition methods are considered in a modular sense, yielding many possible configurations to represent wind turbine wakes, of which seven are examined in detail. Velocity deficit models that account for flow conditions in the near wake are better able to reproduce power production for wind turbines in the transitional region of the wind plant, where wind turbines experience as many as five wakes from upstream turbines. Finally, in the deep array, where power production reaches asymptotic values and wake statistics become quasi-periodic, wake superposition schemes become the largest driver in error reduction; using the linear or maximum wake superposition methods can reduce the relative root mean square error by as much as 40% in the deep array.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Enhancing Air Quality Forecasts with AP4 Model Updates

This poster was presented at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2024 Fall Conference. The poster describes the latest developments through collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University on point-source emissions impact modeling using the latest high-resolution reduced-form air pollution model, AP4.

Nguyen, Thuy [Carnegie Mellon University (CMU)]↗

The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO 2 reduction beyond the Paris Commitment

China is challenged with the simultaneous goals of improving air quality and mitigating climate change. The “Beautiful China” strategy, launched by the Chinese government in 2020, requires that all cities in China attain 35 μg/m 3 or below for annual mean concentration of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) by 2035. Meanwhile, China adopts a portfolio of low-carbon policies to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged in the Paris Agreement. Previous studies demonstrated the co-benefits to air pollution reduction from implementing low-carbon energy policies. Pathways for China to achieve dual targets of both air quality and CO 2 mitigation, however, have not been comprehensively explored. Here, we couple an integrated assessment model and an air quality model to evaluate air quality in China through 2035 under the NDC scenario and an alternative scenario (Co-Benefit Energy [CBE]) with enhanced low-carbon policies. Results indicate that some Chinese cities cannot meet the PM 2.5 target under the NDC scenario by 2035, even with the strictest end-of-pipe controls. Achieving the air quality target would require further reduction in emissions of multiple air pollutants by 6 to 32%, driving additional 22% reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to the NDC scenario. Results show that the incremental health benefit from improved air quality of CBE exceeds 8 times the additional costs of CO 2 mitigation, attributed particularly to the cost-effective reduction in household PM 2.5 exposure. The additional low-carbon energy polices required for China’s air quality targets would lay an important foundation for its deep decarbonization aligned with the 2 °C global temperature target.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep-learning-based workflow for boundary and small target segmentation in digital rock images using UNet++ and IK-EBM

We report three-dimensional (3D) X-ray micro-computed tomography (μCT) has been widely used in petroleum engineering because it can provide detailed pore structural information for a reservoir rock, which can be imported into a pore-scale numerical model to simulate the transport and distribution of multiple fluids in the pore space. The partial volume blurring (PVB) problem is a major challenge in segmenting raw μCT images of rock samples, which impacts boundaries and small targets near the resolution limit. We developed a deep-learning (DL)-based workflow for accurate and fast partial volume segmentation. The DL model's performance depends primarily on the training data quality and model architecture. This study employed the entropy-based-masking indicator kriging (IK-EBM) to segment 3D Berea sandstone images as training datasets. The comparison between IK-EBM and manual segmentation using a 3D synthetic sphere pack, which had a known ground truth, showed that IK-EBM had higher accuracy on partial volume segmentation. We then trained and tested the UNet++ model, a state-of-the-art supervised encoder-decoder model, for binary (i.e., void and solid) and four-class segmentation. We compared the UNet++ with the commonly used U-Net and wide U-Net models and showed that the UNet++ had the best performance in terms of pixel-wise and physics-based evaluation metrics. Specifically, boundary-scaled accuracy demonstrated that the UNet++ architecture outperformed the regular U-Net architecture in the segmentation of pixels near boundaries and small targets, which were subjected to the PVB effect. Feature map visualization illustrated that the UNet++ bridged the semantic gaps between the feature maps extracted at different depths of the network, thereby enabling faster convergence and more accurate extraction of fine-scale features. The developed workflow significantly enhances the performance of supervised encoder-decoder models in partial volume segmentation, which has extensive applications in fundamental studies of subsurface energy, water, and environmental systems.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Cryo-EM model validation recommendations based on outcomes of the 2019 EMDataResource challenge

This paper describes outcomes of the 2019 Cryo-EM Model Challenge. The goals were to (1) assess the quality of models that can be produced from cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) maps using current modeling software, (2) evaluate reproducibility of modeling results from different software developers and users and (3) compare performance of current metrics used for model evaluation, particularly Fit-to-Map metrics, with focus on near-atomic resolution. Our findings demonstrate the relatively high accuracy and reproducibility of cryo-EM models derived by 13 participating teams from four benchmark maps, including three forming a resolution series (1.8 to 3.1 Å). The results permit specific recommendations to be made about validating near-atomic cryo-EM structures both in the context of individual experiments and structure data archives such as the Protein Data Bank. We recommend the adoption of multiple scoring parameters to provide full and objective annotation and assessment of the model, reflective of the observed cryo-EM map density.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of MCNP Critical Benchmarks Models of Highly Enriched Uranium Cylinders

A new centralized repository of high-quality MCNP models of critical benchmark experiments is currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The benchmark experiments are described in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook, and the initial set of benchmark models are derived from the Whisper Suite provided with MCNP6.2. This effort is a collaboration among the Nuclear Criticality Safety, Nuclear Data, and Monte Carlo code development/application organization at LANL. The objective is to create a current single LANL benchmark collection that includes the latest ICSBEP revision that has a formal review and revision process, is contained in an open- source repository, and utilizes new Python tools for improved input and output file review.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Validation of MCNP Critical Benchmark Models of Moderated Highly Enriched Uranium Slabs

A new centralized repository of high-quality MCNP models of critical benchmark experiments is currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The benchmark experiments are described in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook, and the initial set of benchmark models are derived from the Whisper Suite provided with MCNP6.2. This effort is a collaboration among the Nuclear Criticality Safety, Nuclear Data, and Monte Carlo code development/application organizations at LANL. The goal is to build a single LANL benchmark collection that is up to date with the latest ICSBEP revision, has a formal review and revision process, is contained in an open-source repository, and utilizes new Python tools for improved input and output file review. This paper describes the validation of the models associated with HEU-MET-FAST-007, “Uranium Metal Slabs Moderated with Polyethylene, Plexiglas, and Teflon”. The Monte Carlo n-Particle (MCNP) models were compared to the second revision of HEU-MET-FAST-007. The experiment considered critical configurations of highly enriched uranium (HEU) metal slabs and various moderators in 43 unique cases. The slabs of uranium were separated by layers of moderating material, forming an assembly. The assembly was separated in two halves with one half placed on a stationary table and the other attached to a moveable table that could be raised and lowered via pulleys connected to the ceiling of the shielded room. To reach criticality, the two halves were brought together with a negligible gap between the assemblies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Validation of MCNP Critical Benchmark Models of PU-MET-FAST-016

A new centralized repository of high-quality MCNP models of critical benchmark experiments is currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The repository is the combined effort of the Nuclear Criticality Safety, Nuclear Data, and Monte Carlo code development/application organizations at LANL. The initial set of benchmark models in the repository are derived from the Whisper Suite provided with MCNP6.2 and are evaluated against the benchmark experiments described in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The goal is to build a single LANL benchmark collection that is up to date with the latest ICSBEP revision, has a formal review and revision process, is contained in an open-source repository, and utilizes new Python tools for improved input and output file review. This paper describes the validation of the models associated with PU-MET-FAST-016, “Flooded 3X3X3 Arrays of 3-kg Plutonium (Pu) Metal Cylinders – Phase I”. In this critical experiment, twenty-seven 3-kg Pu metal cylinders with a height of 46.33 ± 0.15 mm and diameter of 65.25 ± 0.05 mm were arranged in a cubic array. The Pu cylinders were sealed in aluminum cans, and three cans were placed in each of nine perforated aluminum sleeves, as shown in Fig. 1. The nine sleeves were supported by an aluminum frame that allowed for control of the lateral spacing of the cylinders, both in the X and Y directions. The benchmark experiment measured thirteen configurations. Of these configurations, six were modeled using MCNP.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nudging allows direct evaluation of coupled climate models with in situ observations: a case study from the MOSAiC expedition

Comparing the output of general circulation models to observations is essential for assessing and improving the quality of models. While numerical weather prediction models are routinely assessed against a large array of observations, comparing climate models and observations usually requires long time series to build robust statistics. Here, we show that by nudging the large-scale atmospheric circulation in coupled climate models, model output can be compared to local observations for individual days. We illustrate this for three climate models during a period in April 2020 when a warm air intrusion reached the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in the central Arctic. Radiosondes, cloud remote sensing and surface flux observations from the MOSAiC expedition serve as reference observations. The climate models AWI-CM1/ECHAM and AWI-CM3/IFS miss the diurnal cycle of surface temperature in spring, likely because both models assume the snowpack on ice to have a uniform temperature. CAM6, a model that uses three layers to represent snow temperature, represents the diurnal cycle more realistically. During a cold and dry period with pervasive thin mixed-phase clouds, AWI-CM1/ECHAM only produces partial cloud cover and overestimates downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface. AWI-CM3/IFS produces a closed cloud cover but misses cloud liquid water. Our results show that nudging the large-scale circulation to the observed state allows a meaningful comparison of climate model output even to short-term observational campaigns. We suggest that nudging can simplify and accelerate the pathway from observations to climate model improvements and substantially extends the range of observations suitable for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying co-benefits of water quality policies: An integrated assessment model of land and nitrogen management

Due to the nature of nitrogen cycling, policies designed to address water quality concerns have the potential to provide benefits beyond the targeted water quality improvements. For example, actions to protect water quality by reducing nitrate leaching from agriculture also reduce emissions of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. These positive effects, which are incidental to the regulation's intended target, are termed “co-benefits.” To quantify the co-benefits associated with reduced nitrate leaching, we integrate an economic model of farmer decision making with a model of terrestrial nitrogen cycling for the watershed surrounding Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA. Our modeling approach provides a framework that links air and water pollutants in an agri-environmental system and offers a direction for future studies. Our model results highlight the finding that the co-benefits from nitrous oxide abatement are substantial, and their inclusion increases the benefit–cost ratio of water quality policies. Consideration of these co-benefits has the potential to reverse the conclusions of benefit–cost analysis in the assessment of current water quality policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗