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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

A simple way to measure daily lifestyle regularity

A brief diary instrument to quantify daily lifestyle regularity (SRM-5) is developed and compared with a much longer version of the instrument (SRM-17) described and used previously. Three studies are described. In Study 1, SRM-17 scores (2 weeks) were collected from a total of 293 healthy control subjects (both genders) aged between 19 and 92 years. Five items (1) Get out of bed, (2) First contact with another person, (3) Start work, housework or volunteer activities, (4) Have dinner, and (5) Go to bed were then selected from the 17 items and SRM-5 scores calculated as if these five items were the only ones collected. Comparisons were made with SRM-17 scores from the same subject-weeks, looking at correlations between the two SRM measures, and the effects of age and gender on lifestyle regularity as measured by the two instruments. In Study 2 this process was repeated in a group of 27 subjects who were in remission from unipolar depression after treatment with psychotherapy and who completed SRM-17 for at least 20 successive weeks. SRM-5 and SRM-17 scores were then correlated within an individual using time as the random variable, allowing an indication of how successful SRM-5 was in tracking changes in lifestyle regularity (within an individual) over time. In Study 3 an SRM-5 diary instrument was administered to 101 healthy control subjects (both genders, aged 20-59 years) for two successive weeks to obtain normative measures and to test for correlations with age and morningness. Measures of lifestyle regularity from SRM-5 correlated quite well (about 0.8) with those from SRM-17 both between subjects, and within-subjects over time. As a detector of irregularity as defined by SRM-17, the SRM-5 instrument showed acceptable values of kappa (0.69), sensitivity (74%) and specificity (95%). There were, however, differences in mean level, with SRM-5 scores being about 0.9 units [about one standard deviation (SD)] above SRM-17 scores from the same subject-weeks. SRM-5 scores also deviated more from a Gaussian distribution than did SRM-17 ones. In a study with a sample size of 101, the new SRM-5 instrument yielded scores with a mean of 4.11 and an SD of 1.13. Correlations between lifestyle regularity and age, and between lifestyle regularity and morningness appeared similar whether 5-item or 17-item SRM measures were used. When a gender difference in lifestyle regularity appeared, it was detected by both SRM-5 and SRM-17 measures.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of modeling uncertainty in the Rayleigh damping model

Understanding and accurately characterizing energy dissipation mechanisms in civil structures during earthquakes is an important element of seismic assessment and design. The most commonly used model is attributed to Rayleigh. This paper proposes a systematic approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with Rayleigh's damping model. Bayesian calibration with embedded model error is employed to treat the coefficients of the Rayleigh model as random variables using modal damping ratios. Through a numerical example, we illustrate how this approach works and how the calibrated model can address modeling uncertainty associated with the Rayleigh damping model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

LABQ3: Bayesian method for quantification of mineral compositions and nano-scale elemental mapping of 3D synchrotron XCT data

Quantitative analysis of mineral compositions is essential in understanding geochemical, mineralogical and environmental processes. Fine-resolution 3D imaging is widely done using synchrotron X-ray computed tomography (XCT), but existing analyses are limited to visualization and segmentation. This paper presents a new method, Linear Attenuation Bayesian Quantitative 3D-mapper (LABQ3), based on the linearity of X-ray attenuation with respect to elemental concentrations. To address the random variability in attenuation measurements, LABQ3 employs Bayesian decision theory to minimize classification error, using reference attenuation distributions from scans of pure mineral standards. To demonstrate LABQ3 and test its performance, we studied precipitated carbonate samples. XCT scans were done at multiple energies using the transmission X-ray microscope (TXM) at beamline 32-ID-C of the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. The reconstructed 3D images have a voxel size of 20 nm. Analyses revealed rich nano-scale compositional heterogeneity within individual particles. A mixture of calcium and cadmium produced an overall stoichiometric composition of (Ca 0.78 ,Cd 0.22 )CO 3 , with some voxels containing nearly pure CdCO 3 . The addition of zinc led to an overall stoichiometric composition of 33% Ca, 28% Cd, 39% Zn, with a nearly pure CaCO 3 core and compositional zonation through the rim. These compositional gradients are related to temporal sequences of carbonate mineral formation where Cd precipitated at the beginning in (Ca,Cd)CO 3 , while Cd and Zn precipitated at the end in (Ca, Cd,Zn)CO 3 . Results differ from bulk analyses using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), showing that LABQ3 provides particle-specific insights. LABQ3 distinguishes itself by quantifying chemical compositions along a continuum, making it different from XCT analyses based on segmentation. LABQ3 allows simultaneous acquisition of morphology and chemical composition in 3D, facilitating the interpretation of chemical gradients of trace elements, quantification of solid solution compositions, inferences about temporal sequences of mineral precipitation, and addressing other concerns about solid-phase chemistry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble variational Fokker-Planck methods for data assimilation

Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Refining fast calorimeter simulations with a Schrödinger Bridge

Machine learning-based simulations, especially calorimeter simulations, are promising tools for approximating the precision of classical high energy physics simulations with a fraction of the generation time. Nearly all methods proposed so far learn neural networks that map a random variable with a known probability density, like a Gaussian, to realistic-looking events. In many cases, physics events are not close to Gaussian and so these neural networks have to learn a highly complex function. We study an alternative approach: Schrödinger bridge Quality Improvement via Refinement of Existing Lightweight Simulations (SQuIRELS). SQuIRELS leverages the power of diffusion-based neural networks and Schrödinger bridges to map between samples where the probability density is not known explicitly. We apply SQuIRELS to the task of refining a classical fast simulation to approximate a full classical simulation. On simulated calorimeter events, we find that SQuIRELS is able to reproduce highly non-trivial features of the full simulation with a fraction of the generation time.

Calorimeter methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Adiabatic Quantum Linear Solver Algorithm with Optimal Complexity Scaling and Detailed Running Costs

Solving linear systems of equations is a fundamental problem with a wide variety of applications across many fields of science, and there is increasing effort to develop quantum linear solver algorithms. Subaşı et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 060504 (2019)] proposed a randomized algorithm inspired by adiabatic quantum computing, based on a sequence of random Hamiltonian simulation steps, with suboptimal scaling in the condition number 𝜅 of the linear system and the target error 𝜖. Here we go beyond these results in several ways. Firstly, using filtering [Lin and Tong, Quantum 4, 361 (2020)] and Poissonization techniques [Cunningham and Roland, ArXiv:2406.03972 (2024)], the algorithm complexity is improved to the optimal scaling 𝑂⁡(𝜅⁢log (1/𝜖))—an exponential improvement in 𝜖, and a shaving of a log 𝜅 scaling factor in 𝜅. Secondly, the algorithm is further modified to achieve constant factor improvements, which are vital as we progress towards hardware implementations on fault-tolerant devices. We introduce a cheaper randomized walk operator method replacing Hamiltonian simulation—which also removes the need for potentially challenging classical precomputations; randomized routines are sampled over optimized random variables; circuit constructions are improved. We obtain a closed formula rigorously upper bounding the expected number of times one needs to apply a block-encoding of the linear system matrix to output a quantum state encoding the solution to the linear system. The upper bound is 837⁢𝜅 at 𝜖 = 10 −10 for Hermitian matrices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand Response Under Stochastic, Price-Dependent User Behavior

This letter focuses on price-based demand response (DR) implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented by price-dependent random variables, leveraging models and tools from the theory of stochastic optimization with decision-dependent distributions. The inherent epistemic uncertainty in the customers' responses renders open-loop, model-based DR strategies impractical. We propose a stochastic, feedback-based pricing strategy to compensate for estimation errors and uncertainty in customer response, establish theoretical results demonstrating the stability and near-optimality of the proposed approach, and validate its effectiveness through numerical simulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distributionally Robust Variational Quantum Algorithms With Shifted Noise

Given their potential to demonstrate near-term quantum advantage, variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) have been extensively studied. Although numerous techniques have been developed for VQA parameter optimization, it remains a significant challenge. A practical issue is the high sensitivity of quantum noise to environmental changes, and its propensity to shift in real time. This presents a critical problem as an optimized VQA ansatz may not perform effectively under a different noise environment. For the first time, we explore how to optimize VQA parameters to be robust against unknown shifted noise. We model the noise level as a random variable with an unknown probability density function (PDF), and we assume that the PDF may shift within an uncertainty set. This assumption guides us to formulate a distributionally robust optimization problem, with the goal of finding parameters that maintain effectiveness under shifted noise. We utilize a distributionally robust Bayesian optimization solver for our proposed formulation. This provides numerical evidence in both the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) and the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) with hardware-efficient ansatz, indicating that we can identify parameters that perform more robustly under shifted noise. We regard this work as the first step towards improving the reliability of VQAs influenced by real-time noise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spinbox: tools for many-body quantum systems in a Monte Carlo context

Spinbox is a piece of software that facilitates quantum mechanical calculations relevant to Monte Carlo simulation of atomic nuclei. At the front lines of research on the nuclear many-body problem are a large number of supercomputer-scale simulation codes. These codes produce valuable results but can be hard to understand, especially for those without intimate knowledge of the relevant theoretical methods. Thus, tools that fill pedagogical roles are extremely valuable. Spinbox makes it easy for one to replicate and analyze the computational processes relevant to a Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation that may be difficult to understand/debug/analyze due to the scale of the corresponding simulation software. Spinbox is written in Python using other state-of-the-art Python modules for numerical calculations. While a number of Python libraries exist that are suited to general quantum many-body calculations, the motivation of Spinbox is quite particular. In Diffusion Monte Carlo methods (DMC, GFMC, AFDMC), the central calculation is the imaginary-time propagation of individual samples of the many-body wavefunction. Although quantum wavefunctions generally must be described by a probability distribution over a basis, DMC imbues particles (within one sample) with classical spatial coordinates. This method is unusual, so other Python packages are typically not set up to do this easily. Furthermore, the software has built-in options for nuclear systems assuming isospin symmetry, which can be set up with other libraries but is a nontrivial process to do so. Features: - numerical representation of samples of the many-body wavefunctions, including tensor-product states (used in AFDMC) - numerical representation of many-body operators, including tensor-product operators: general, spin, imaginary-time propagation, etc. - the correct associated arithmetic and algebra, implemented as class methods - classes for representing realistic nuclear two- and three-body Hamiltonians (e.g. Argonne V18, Illinois NNN) - large-scale parallel integration over random variables, crucial for the AFDMC method My goal is to make this package open source so that anyone may use it and contribute to it, particularly other researchers doing AFDMC calculations

Fox, Jordan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of the Earthquake Rupture on Ground-Motion Variability of the 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 Amatrice, Italy, Earthquake

Here, the devastating 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 earthquake that struck Amatrice, Italy, marked the beginning of a prolonged seismic sequence dominated by three subsequent M w ≥6.0 events in the central Apennines region. The earthquake destroyed Amatrice’s historic center, claiming the lives of 299 individuals and causing widespread damage in the neighboring villages. The severity of the ground shaking, with a recorded maximum acceleration of 850 cm/s 2 on the east–west component at the Amatrice station, was far greater than the predicted acceleration based on the Italian ground-motion model (GMM). As pointed out by several investigations, the observed ground-motion amplitude and its spatial variability during the earthquake can be linked to specific rupture characteristics, including slip distribution and rupture directivity effects revealed by the observed data (Tinti et al., 2016; Pischiutta et al., 2021). In this study, we conducted physics-based 3D numerical simulations of ground motion for the Amatrice earthquake for frequencies up to 3 Hz. We employed a series of kinematic rupture models and a well-constrained local 3D velocity model incorporating surface topography. The kinematic rupture realizations were generated using multiscale hybrid and fully stochastic models, following the technique proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2016). We focused on assessing the sensitivity of near-fault ground-motion amplitudes to earthquake rupture characteristics, in particular, the spatial slip pattern. To evaluate the quality of our simulations, we employed goodness-of-fit measurements performed in comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions. The simulated ground motions compare well with the recorded data and predictions from GMMs for Italy, ITA18 (Lanzano et al., 2019). However, we found that the simulated interevent ground-motion variability (randomness in the source process) of peak ground velocity, σ (PGV) is higher than the constant σ (PGV) predicted by conventional GMMs. Our simulations using several rupture scenarios demonstrate that the near-fault ground-motion amplification pattern is directly related to the slip distribution pattern.

3D Ground Motions Simulations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Analysis of Long-Term Degradation of Microwave Cavity Flow Sensor

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with the flat wall of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. We have performed a proof-of-concept experiment of flow sensing with the transducer in liquid sodium at 340°C in impinging liquid jet geometry. The transducer remained in liquid sodium for 70 days. After removal, no structural damage was observed, and the expected transducer response was verified in a water test. Because long-term (multi-year) experimental tests of transducer resilience to harsh environment are not practical, we have developed a probabilistic model of creep to estimate transducer resilience to the harsh environment. The probabilistic model considers diffusion creep under the condition of high temperature and low stress, where the stress and temperature are allowed to be random variables with Gaussian distributions. Using the probabilistic model, we estimate inelastic membrane deflections due to creep for several temperature ranges. We conclude that for temperatures less than 650°C, creep has negligible long-term effect on the transducer performance. Since a yellowish residue was observed on the transducer surface after 70 days of immersion in liquid sodium, we have investigated possible evidence of corrosion. Chromium depletion is a typical indicator of the corrosion process in stainless steel. Scraping off a residue from the transducer and performing scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive analysis (EDS) did not find any chromium in the residue. Approximately 60% of the residue consisted of copper, which can be attributed to contamination of sodium due to powder residue from machining of copper and brass components of the transducer.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Complex Systems as Graphs for Debugging and Predictive Maintenance-Preliminary Thoughts

Representing complex systems as graphs enables use of mathematical tools to identify faults or predict failures. Graph nodes correspond to individual modules or subsystems, and edges link coupled system parts. ‘Probes’ measure the node outputs, monitoring the system health for unexpected behavior. Assuming one cannot probe every point, within a system, the fault correlates to a region—not necessarily the specific location. Bayesian networks trained to understand fault patterns can accurately identify the source. The diagnostic tool described aides debugging by pinpointing system failure causes. For predictive maintenance, probe data develop probability distribution functions describing subsystem mean time to failure. Unit lifetime can be estimated through these probability distributions. Two approaches include using Bayesian classifiers to infer the system failure source and developing maintenance schedules by treating systems as collections of random variables. When failure behavior does not follow a closed form function, use of similarity models is proposed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1968

The X square statistic and goodness of fit test

The X square statistic is a useful measure of the discrepancy between the actual distribution of a set of data points and the theoretical distribution of a random variable of which the data points supposedly are values. Thus the X square statistic is frequently used in goodness of fit tests.

Argentiero, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS1968

User Manual for GERT EXCLUSIVE-OR Program

This report describes the procedures for using digital computer programs for analyzing GERT networks which contain nodes of the EXCLUSIVE-OR type and branches which have both a probability and a time associated with them. The time associated with a branch can be a random variable. The program calculates the probability, the expected time and the variance in the time to go from each source node of the GERT network to each sink node. Programs have been written in FORTRAN II and FORTRAN IV and have been exercised on the IBM 1130, GE 225 and CDC 3400 computers. This report details the operating procedures for using these programs. Four examples are included to illustrate the important facets involved in using the programs. Special options included in the program are: (1) printout of all loops and paths associated with the network; and (2) deletion of loops that have a probability of occurrence less than a value specified by the user. The program described in this report has been submitted to COSMIC.

Ishmael, Phillip C.↗