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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Grey-box and ANN-based building models for multistep-ahead prediction of indoor temperature to implement model predictive control

Model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems present an opportunity to lower building energy consumption and operational costs. Such approaches rely on the development of a model to precisely forecast building thermal dynamics, such as room air temperature or heating/cooling rate, and make control-related decisions. The control-oriented modeling of building energy systems should be accurate in predicting indoor conditions and present low computational complexity. These features are the key challenge of implementing advanced control methods such as MPC. Extant studies on building modeling for MPC have focused on step-ahead forecasting techniques to forecast building thermal dynamics, while multistep-ahead forecasting is essential. Moreover, machine learning model suitable in case of the domain-based engineering expertise are also not available. To this aim, we perform a comparative analysis of the grey-box model based on a resistance-capacitance (RC) thermal network and a machine learning model composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) for multistep-ahead prediction of building thermal dynamics using current and historical data. Actual experimental data obtained from the Flexible Research Platform (FRP) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US) are used for estimation and validation purposes. The average root mean squared error (RMSE) of the grey-box and ANN models are 0.89 °C and 1.02°C, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that the grey-box model outperforms the ANN model in the considered validation periods in terms of accuracy and prediction stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed machine learning to predict solvatochromic parameters of designer solvents with case studies in CO 2 and lignin dissolution

The polarity of solvents plays a critical role in various research applications, particularly in their solubilities. Polarity is conveniently characterized by the Kamlet-Taft parameters that is, the hydrogen bonding acidity (α), the basicity (β), and the polarizability (π*). Obtaining Kamlet-Taft parameters is very important for designer solvents, namely ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DESs). However, given the unlimited theoretical number of combinations of ionic pairs in ILs and hydrogen-bond donor/acceptor pairs in DESs, experimental determination of their Kamlet-Taft parameters is impractical. To address this, the present study developed two different machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict Kamlet-Taft parameters for designer solvents using quantum chemically derived input features. The ML models developed in the present study showed accurate predictions with high R 2 and low RMSE values. Further, in the context of present interest in the circular bioeconomy, the relationship between the basicities and acidities of designer solvents and their ability to dissolve lignin and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is discussed. Our method thus guides the design of effective solvents with optimal Kamlet-Taft parameter values dissolving and converting biomass and CO 2 into valuable chemicals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Isotherm modeling and techno-economic analysis of a TSA moving bed process using a tetraamine-appended MOF for NGCC applications

Tetraamine-appended metal-organic frameworks (MOF) are a new family of amine-functionalized MOF materials that show potential for CO 2 capture from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. This work presents isotherm modeling of the tetraamine-appended MOF Mg 2 (dobpdc)(3-4-3)(dobpdc 4- =4,4'-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3'dicarboxylate;3-4-3=N,N'bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane), process modeling, scale up, and a techno-economic optimization of a moving bed Temperature Swing Adsorption (TSA) process for carbon capture using this sorbent. This MOF exhibits a unique two-step CO 2 adsorption profile in three different pressure ranges. Thus, arctangent-based logistic functions and, quadratic and Langmuir models were employed to represent such isotherm behavior. The results of the isotherm model show good fitting vs the experimental data with an RMSE of 0.41. Here, to model the carbon capture process, the isotherm model was embedded into a moving bed contactor model, and this was used to simulate a TSA CO 2 capture cycle and evaluate cost-optimal designs considering flue gas from a -650 MWe NGCC power plant. The capital cost model consists of CAPEX correlations for reactors, compressors, ducting, etc., while the operating costs include steam, water, chemicals, and electricity (following NETL's quality guidelines for energy systems studies). A techno-economic optimization of the capture system was performed by using NETL's Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS). Results suggest that a moving bed carbon capture system with tetraamine-appended MOF can be competitive compared to conventional MEA solvent-based capture processes for NGCC plants, when a heat recovery efficiency of at least 40% is achieved, and MOF materials can be produced at a cost below -$9/kg.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking the environmental impacts of ecological engineering on coastal wetlands with numerical modeling and remote sensing

Coastal wetlands are the most valuable ecosystems on the earth but facing severe degradation and losses owing to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Many ecological engineering projects (EEP) have been conducted to mitigate the degradation of coastal wetlands. However, the geomorphological impacts of EEP on coastal wetlands have not been well documented. In this study, a method employed a process-based hydrodynamic model and remote sensing (RS) was developed to evaluate the impacts of EEP on the geomorphological change of a prototype Ramsar site. Results demonstrated that RS has great potential in improving the quality of bathymetry data for the numerical model with a decrease of RMSE from 0.52 m to 0.3 m. It also showed good capacity in trend detection of geomorphological change spatially. Results showed the Chongming Dongtan wetland experienced erosion with an annual rate of -0.035 m/yr from 2013 to 2016 after the implementation of EEP. The deposition rate changed significantly in the area within 200 m of the EEP. It is found that the EEP modified the composition of vegetation, sediment transportation, as well as substrate stability, affecting the geomorphological change of coastal wetlands. It is suggested that the EEP with moderate anthropogenic disturbance is a direct and effective way to recover the coastal habitats for waterbirds. However, the modification of the coastal wetland ecosystem by EEP will lead to the potential vulnerability to global climate change. Therefore, how to mitigate the advantages and disadvantages of the EEP is needed to be further studied to find a more sustainable way for coastal management.

geomorphological change, coastal wetlands, Ecologi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants’ runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12–24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A large-scale comparison of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) techniques in simulating reservoir releases over the Upper Colorado Region

In recent years, the Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) models have become popular tools in assisting various aspects of reservoir operation. However, the practical uses are still rarely reported. Comparison experiment of many AI&DM models over a large number of reservoir cases is particularly valuable to help reservoir operators first examine the usefulness and transferability of different AI&DM models, and then identify the most stable and reliable AI&DM model in assist of various decision-making processes. In this study, a total of 12 AI&DM models with different parameterizations and simulation scenarios are comprehensively tested out and compared in simulating the controlled reservoir outflows of 33 reservoir cases over the Upper Colorado Region, United States. Results show that the Random Forecast and the Long-Short-Term-Memory model could consistently derive the best statistical performance than other models under the baseline simulation scenario. The employed AI&DM models could obtain satisfactory statistical interquartile ranges (25–75%) between [0.6–0.9], [0.3–0.8], and [0.2–0.8], for CORR, NSE, and KGE measurements, respectively, and [1.5–6.5], [–15 to 20], and [0.5–8.5] for the normalized RMSE, PBIAS and RSR measurements, respectively. Results also show Multi-Layer Perceptron model and Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree Algorithm produced more stable and superior performance than other models under more complex input scenarios. We also found that the performance of different AI&DM models are closely relevant to the reservoir elevations, sizes, and functionalities. Discussions were made about the sensitivity of AI&DM models’ parameterizations and the key advantages of AI&DM models over the rule-based reservoir models. We further identify that the main advantage of AI&DM models is the flexibility in designing input structures, whereas the rule-based simulation model is rather limited. Future studies were suggested regarding the best way reservoir operators and researchers could use, select, and apply different AI&DM models in simulating reservoir releases under different natural and modeling environments. Finally, this comparison study also serves as a reference and a piece of groundwork for further promoting the practical uses of AI&DM models in assisting reservoir operation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) evapotranspiration product Version 5.0: Algorithm development and preliminary validation

An accurate estimation of spatially and temporally continuous global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in the assessment of surface energy, water and carbon cycles. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) ET product Version 4.0 (v4.0) based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method was generated to estimate global terrestrial ET. However, certain uncertainty for the GLASS ET product v4.0 limits its application. In this study, we introduced the deep neural networks (DNN) merging framework to improve terrestrial ET estimation for GLASS ET product Version 5.0 (v5.0) generation by integrating five satellite-derived ET products [Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET product (MOD16), Shuttleworth–Wallace dual-source ET product (SW), Priestley–Taylor-based ET product (PT-JPL), modified satellite-based Priestley–Taylor ET product (MS-PT) and simple hybrid ET product (SIM)]. We compared the performance of DNN method against other merging methods, including GLASS ET algorithm v4.0 (BMA), the gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT) method and the random forest (RF) method, based on 195 global eddy covariance (EC) flux towers covering observations from 2000 through 2015. Validations indicated that the DNN had the highest accuracy among four merging methods across different land cover types, yielding the highest average determination coefficients (R 2 , 0.62), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE, 24.1 W/m 2 ) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE, 0.77) with a of 99% confidence interval. Compared with GLASS ET algorithm v4.0, the DNN improved on the R 2 by approximately 7% (p < 0.01) and the KGE by 10%. Based on the DNN, we then generated 8-day GLASS ET product v5.0 globally with a 1 km spatial resolution from 2001 to 2015 driven by GLASS vegetation and surface net radiation (R n ) datasets and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2) datasets. Finally, this global terrestrial ET product provides a valuable dataset for monitoring regional and global water resources and environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing soil water content variability across spatial scales from optimized high-resolution distributed temperature sensing technique

Fiber-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing, when combined with the Single-probe Heat-pulse technique can measure soil moisture (θ) across spatial scales. The key limitation of this system is in obtaining the relationship between soil thermal conductivity (λ) and θ for a specific field. Using the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site, this study tested a new methodology to account for the spatial variability in the λ-θ relationship using a Gaussian processes model. The resulting accurate θ measurements (RMSE = 0.03 m 3 m –3 ) were used to characterize the spatial variability of θ across scales and to develop an empirical equation that can correct for the changes in the θ spatial variability observed at different spatial resolutions. In addition, the number of required samples to accurately characterize θ and its variability over scales ranging from 5 m and 350 m were estimated. Finally, these findings provide key information to scale soil moisture from centimeters to hundreds of meters for process understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Charge-density based convolutional neural networks for stacking fault energy prediction in concentrated alloys

A descriptor-less machine learning (ML) model based only on charge density images extracted from density functional theory (DFT) is developed to predict stacking fault energies (SFE) in concentrated alloys. The model is based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as one of the promising ML techniques for dealing with complex images and data. Identification of correct descriptors is a key bottleneck to develop ML models for predicting materials properties. Often, in most ML models, textbook physical descriptors such as atomic radius, valence charge and electronegativity are used as descriptors which have limitations because these properties change in concentrated alloys when multiple elements are mixed to form a solid solution. Here, we illustrate that, within the scope of DFT, the search for descriptors can be circumvented by electronic charge density, which is the backbone of the Kohn-Sham DFT and describes the system completely. The performance of our model is demonstrated by predicting SFE of concentrated alloys with an RMSE and R 2 of 6.18 mJ/m 2 and 0.87, respectively, validating the accuracy of the proposed approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial intelligence time series forecasting for feed-forward laser stabilization

Laser plasma accelerators, typically operating at 1–10 Hz repetition rates, have the ability to produce high-quality electron beams in compact, all-optical-driven configurations, with the electron beams uniquely suited for a wide variety of accelerator-based applications. However, fluctuations and drifts in the laser delivery to the meter-scaled and below plasma target (the electron beam source) will translate into electron beam source variations that can limit their utility for demanding applications like light sources or linear colliders. Commercially available active feedback laser stabilization systems are intrinsically bandwidth limited due to their integration with multi-inch corrective mirror mounts which minimizes their effectiveness. In this manuscript, we present a Neural Network time series forecaster that can predict laser position fluctuations of the laser delivery to the final target well ahead of a future laser shot. The Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of the prediction accuracy was < 2 μ m for a 1 / e 2 beam radius of 34 μ m . Our feed-forward approach serves as a first-step in circumventing the bandwidth limitations imposed by the currently available stabilization systems since it allows for mirrors to be moved into position ahead of time to offset the predicted future position drift. This will help advance laser plasma accelerator research by providing greater robustness and stability needed for its applications.

Berger, Curtis↗
DOE OSTI2025

A methodology for decay heat characterization in molten salt reactors

Accurate decay heat prediction in molten salt reactors (MSRs) faces dual challenges: complex operational uncertainties and the need for interpretable models compatible with engineering workflows. This work presents a hybrid machine learning and segmented polynomial methodology that addresses both requirements through three key innovations. First, a modular data architecture encodes MSR-specific operational parameters (power density: 1-100 W cm -3 , humidity: 0-0.1 wt %, air ingress: 0-0.1 mol %) with uncertainty-aware temporal discretization spanning 15 orders of magnitude. Second, region-optimized machine learning models achieve 92.3 % root mean square error (RMSE) reduction over conventional polynomials while maintaining physical interpretability through automated piecewise equation generation. Third, dual front-end interfaces accelerate safety analyses — a Jupyter environment enables researchers to explore 10,000+ parameter combinations via interactive widgets, while a Streamlit web application reduces design iteration cycles through production-grade visualization tools. Operational deployment demonstrates prediction times of only a couple hundred milliseconds for 10 4 years decay profiles, enabling real-time optimization of spent fuel container designs.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term thermal stability and calibration of Type-II fiber Bragg grating array inscribed in radiation-hardened fibers

This paper investigates the long-term thermal stability of Type-II fiber Bragg grating (FBG) arrays, inscribed by femtosecond laser in radiation-hardened fiber, for potential applications as multiplexed sensors in high-temperature energy systems. The thermal stability of FBG sensors was assessed through 16 thermal cycles from room temperature (RT) to 750 ℃ about two months, involving 100 FBG sensors. The results show that the absolute temperature drift of FBG sensors can be reduced to less than 0.4 pm/day after 54 h thermal annealing process at a constant temperature of 800 ℃. As temperature sensors, the FBGs demonstrated stable performance, achieving a standard deviation (STD) of 1.8 pm (corresponding to a temperature resolution of 0.118 ℃) post-annealing. Repeated thermal cycles revealed a random drift of 2.3 pm in the FBG wavelength at RT. Polynomial fitting was explored as a calibration method to convert FBG wavelength shifts into absolute temperature measurements. By optimizing calibration temperature points (RT, 200 ℃, 400 ℃, and 750 ℃), the study shows that cubic polynomial calibration using four points yields an average R2 of 0.9997 and an RMSE of 3.58 ℃ across the entire temperature range (RT to 750 ℃). This approach represents an 11.53-fold improvement over empirical slope calibration and a 1.34-fold improvement over four-point piecewise fitting. The findings indicate that Type-II FBGs inscribed in radiation-hardened fibers can function as accurate temperature sensors, with performance on par with or exceeding that of thermocouples. With their multiplexing capability, robust signal transmission over long lead cables, and immunity to electromagnetic interference, FBG sensors offer a promising alternative to traditional electronic sensors for energy system monitoring.

Dominguez-Ontiveros, Elvis [ORNL] (ORCID:000000018↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting the superconducting critical temperature in transition metal carbides and nitrides using machine learning

Transition metal carbides and nitrides have unique mechanical and chemical characteristics. At low temperatures many of them also exhibit superconductivity, which can be controlled by substitutions into both the transition metal and carbon/nitrogen sites. To investigate the factors governing the superconducting state, we apply machine learning methods. Here we collected a dataset containing 147 materials, which was used to create a pipeline for predicting their superconducting critical temperature. When this pipeline is applied to a randomly selected test set, it shows a good performance, with of 0.82 and RMSE of 1.9 K. To explore the limits of the machine learning approach, we also use it to predict entire substitution series within the dataset. This represents a realistic test for the predictive models, which can be extremely useful when applied to new substitutions in materials systems. The performance of the pipeline in this case is much more uneven, with good predictions for some series, while for others the model shows minimal predictive power. We discuss possible reasons for these results, as well as methods to estimate the performance of machine learning on new substitution series.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis applied to SiC failure probability in TRISO modeled with BISON

Here, a sensitivity analysis on the failure probability of the Silicon Carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel during transient conditions predicted by the BISON fuel performance code is performed. The principal goal of the analysis is to understand the most important parameters dictating SiC failure behavior in BISON during Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs). SiC brittle fracture probability is modeled using Weibull statistics. A total of seven inputs related to SiC failure has been selected for the analysis, including the Weibull statistics parameters, elastic moduli for SiC and Pyrolitic Carbon (PyC) and SiC stress-free temperature. A 1D TRISO BISON model has been established for various reactivity insertions performed at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR). The principal advantage associated with the 1D TRISO model developed in this work is its computational efficiency. The Sobol variance decomposition method is used, and the sensitivity indices are presented for eight different values of the energy deposition. The results show that the two most important parameters impacting the predicted SiC failure probability are the Weibull modulus and the characteristic stress, and a co-variance amongst these parameters is obtained for low reactivity insertions. An additional new finding of this work is that the relative importance of Weibull parameters depends on the energy deposition, and thus reactivity, regime. For low energy depositions, two parameters are of influence on SiC failure probability, while for high energy depositions only one parameter impacts failure probability results. Moreover, optimization of the Weibull modulus and characteristic stress is performed by minimizing the RMSE between BISON failure probability predictions and experimental failure fractions for each energy deposition. This work also demonstrates the validity of the NSRR tests BISON simulations and of the respective sensitivity analysis results as conservative, yet indicative for slower transients characterized by lower deposited energies. Such verification is achieved through the partial extension of the analysis to a group Control Rod Withdrawal reproduced from a previous study. Another novel result of this analysis is that no single set of Weibull parameters can reproduce all reactivity insertion experimental failure results, which is related to the intrinsic nature of SiC failure properties, and a new range for the parameters is proposed to produce a failure probability envelope that encompasses the experimental fractions. Additionaly, this work proposes a new approach for future failure analysis with BISON, consisting in the use of Weibull parameters ranges, rather than fixed sets, along with failure envelopes generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic characterization of sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry

NIR spectroscopy is a rapid and accurate green technology for high-throughput biomass characterization, including sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a promising energy crop for the biofuel industry. This study assessed the influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic analysis (wavelength range: 867–2535 nm) of sorghum biomass composition. Grown under field conditions, a total of 113 types of genetically diverse sorghum accessions were dried, ground, and sieved (<250, 250–600, 600–850, and > 850 µm particle size) for developing partial least square regression (PLSR) prediction models for moisture, ash, extractive, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin (ASL + AIL). Overall, smaller particle sizes provided better model performance, while no single particle size provided the best performance for all the selected components. With only 9 selected bands and 4 latent variables (LVs), the best PLSR model was obtained for moisture with particle size of 600–850 µm with the square root of the coefficient of determination (R) of 0.85, the ratio of prediction to deviation (RPD) of 2.2, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.46 % in external validation. Similar model performances were also obtained for ash, extractive, glucan, and xylan. This study showed that size reduction could effectively improve NIR spectroscopic analysis for lipid-producing sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing uncertainty in the timing of energy use during cost-optimal distributed energy technology selection and sizing

This paper empirically derives uncertainty ranges in cost-optimal solar PV and storage sizing by comparing results from the REopt Lite optimization platform from metered data and a set of simulated Department of Energy Commercial Reference Building (CRB) profiles at 65 sites. We find load profile shape alone does not explain a site’s optimal configurations (i.e., PV, Storage, PV and Storage, No System). Still, load profile shape does introduce uncertainty to optimal PV and storage capacities. Across all cases where PV is part of an optimal configuration, we find the average ratio of power capacities derived from metered loads to capacities derived from CRB profiles to be 0.97 (and as high as 1463), where 1 would be a perfect match in system size. For storage, the ratio is 1.6 (and as high as 42). We also assess how, in the absence of complete metered data, a CRB profile can be selected that would be expected to yield the most similar solar PV and storage capacities. From those metrics that can be available from billing data (i.e., peak demand, monthly load totals), we find that uncertainty is most reduced by selecting the CRB’s with an annual peak occurring at the most similar time, or those with the lowest average root mean square error (RMSE) among monthly peak loads. This research can help improve the implementation and interpretation of results derived from simulated load profiles and is an important next step in advancing smart grid solutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking of Solar Irradiance Nowcast Performance Derived from All-Sky Imagers

Fluctuations of the incoming solar irradiance impact the power generation from photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal power plants. Accurate solar nowcasting becomes necessary to detect these sudden changes of generated power and to provide the desired information for optimal exploitation of solar systems. In the framework of the International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, a benchmarking exercise has been conducted relying on a bouquet of solar nowcasting methodologies by all-sky imagers (ASI). In this paper, four ASI systems nowcast the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) with a time forecast ranging from 1 to 20 min during 28 days with variable cloud conditions spanning from September to November 2019 in southern Spain. All ASIs demonstrated their ability to accurately nowcast GHI, with RMSE ranging from 6.9% to 18.1%. Under cloudy conditions, all ASIs' nowcasts outperform the persistence models. Under clear skies, three ASIs are better than persistence. Discrepancies in the observed nowcasting performance become larger at increasing forecast horizons. The findings of this study highlight the feasibility of ASIs to reliably nowcast GHI at different sky conditions, time intervals and horizons. Such nowcasts can be used either to estimate solar power at distant times or detect sudden GHI fluctuations.

all-sky imagers↗