Neutron Detection for Radiological Emergency
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Presentation to be submitted to and presented during the Health Physics Society (HPS) Annual Meeting 2023, July 23–27, 2023, National Harbor, MD (http://burkclients.com/hps/2023AM/site/index.html).
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News highlight intended for a new publication, the "LDRD Quarterly Highlights." The quarterly newsletter contains highlights from LDRD and SDRD programs and will be published on a LANL-hosted website. This story was previously featured on the NNSS.gov website
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This is a presentation that will be given at the International Conference on the Development of Preparedness for National and International Emergency Response (EPR2021), 11–15 October 2021, in Vienna, Austria.
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Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.
Particulate isotopic analysis in nuclear forensics has developed rapidly during the past two decades due to technical advances in determining the isotopic composition of individual particles. This paper introduces basic statistical concepts that can be applied by analysts to understand the importance of statistical adequacy when interpretating particle data. While these basic statistical methods provide a useful point-of-entry to particle data analysis, more sophisticated statistical and modeling approaches are needed to extract maximal information from such datasets in the future.
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Unlike short-term laboratory experiments, studies at sites historically contaminated with radionuclides can provide insight into contaminant migration behavior at environmentally-relevant decadal timescales. One such site is Pond B, a seasonally stratified reservoir within Savannah River Site (SC, USA) has low levels (μBq L –1 ) of plutonium in the water column. Here, we evaluate the origin of plutonium using high-precision isotope measurements, investigate the impact of water column geochemistry on plutonium cycling during different stratification periods, and re-evaluate long-term mass balance of plutonium in the pond. New isotopic data confirm that reactor-derived plutonium overwhelms input from Northern Hemisphere fallout at this site. Two suggested mechanisms for observed plutonium cycling in the water column include: (1) reductive dissolution of sediment-derived Fe(III)-(oxyhydr)oxides during seasonal stratification and (2) plutonium stabilization complexed strongly to Fe(III)-particulate organic matter (POM) complexes. While plutonium may be mobilized to a limited extent by stratification and reductive dissolution, peak plutonium concentrations are in shallow waters and associated with Fe(III)-POM at the inception of stratification. This suggests that plutonium release from sediments during stratification is not the dominant mechanism driving plutonium cycling in the pond. Importantly, our analysis suggests that the majority is retained in shallow sediments and may become increasingly recalcitrant.
Plutonium (Pu) cycling and mobility in the environment can be impacted by the iron cycle and microbial community dynamics. We investigated the spatial and temporal changes of the microbiome in an iron (Fe)-rich, plutonium-contaminated, monomictic reservoir (Pond B, Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA). The microbial community composition varied with depth during seasonal thermal stratification and was strongly correlated with redox. During stratification, Fe(II) oxidizers (e.g., Ferrovum, Rhodoferax, Chlorobium) were most abundant in the hypoxic/anoxic zones, while Fe(III) reducers (e.g., Geothrix, Geobacter) dominated the deep, anoxic zone. Sulfate reducers and methanogens were present in the anoxic layer, likely contributing to iron and plutonium cycling. Multinomial regression of predicted functions/pathways identified metabolisms highly associated with stratification (within the top 5%), including iron reduction, methanogenesis, C1 compound utilization, fermentation, and aromatic compound degradation. Two sediment cores collected at the Inlet and Outlet of the pond were dominated by putative fermenters and organic matter (OM) degraders. Overall, microbiome analyses revealed the potential for three microbial impacts on the plutonium and iron biogeochemical cycles: (1) plutonium bioaccumulation throughout the water column, (2) Pu–Fe-OM-aggregate formation by Fe(II) oxidizers under microaerophilic/aerobic conditions, and (3) Pu–Fe-OM-aggregate or sediment reductive dissolution and organic matter degradation in the deep, anoxic waters.
Enewetak Atoll underwent 43 historical nuclear tests from 1948 to 1958, including the first hydrogen bomb test, resulting in a substantial nuclear material fallout contaminating the Atoll and the lagoon waters. The radionuclide fallout material deposited in lagoon sediments and land soil will remain for decades to come. With intensifying climate and extreme weather events, the possibility of redistribution of deposited radionuclide material has become a great concern. This study uses a numerical modeling approach to estimate the potential elevated radionuclide concentrations that can be distributed during storm events under current and future climates. We simulated three historical storm scenarios that are most likely to impact Atoll’s environment and remobilize the radionuclide-bound sediments. WRF-ARW was used to reconstruct these storm scenarios under current year (2015) and future year (2090) climates. Storm-induced ocean hydrodynamics conditions were generated using FVCOM. FVCOM-ICM was externally coupled to simulate the fate and transport of radionuclides. Given that the 239 Pu is the largest inventory of the lagoon and Atoll islands, the model results show the highest average 239 Pu concentration that an island may be exposed to is 3.25E-4 Bq/m 3 (becquerel per cubic meters), which is an increase of 84 times the average baseline/existing 239 Pu concentration without the storm conditions. The overall increase in 239 Pu average over all the islands of Atoll is about 20 folds relative to the baseline concentration. Despite the high relative increase ratios, the significantly low activity concentrations may not pose an immediate exposure risk. However, due to the limitations of the study and uncertainties/biases in the historical data used, further research supported by field surveys to better characterize the current contamination level may be needed to make more accurate predictions.