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This report discusses ideas on scientific uncertainty and how the modern DAQ systems fit in that framework.
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There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.
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We formularize a method for randomizing quantum states with respect to the Shatten p-norms (p ≥ 1) in trace class. In particular, this work includes the operator norm, p = ∞, and the trace norm, p = 1, simultaneously in a single statement via McDiarmid's inequality and a net construction.
Approximation method for determining maximum response of simple beams to stationary random excitation perfectly correlated in space and time
High-throughput multi-omics studies and corresponding network analyses of multi-omic data have rapidly expanded their impact over the last 10 years. As biological features of different types (e.g. transcripts, proteins, metabolites) interact within cellular systems, the greatest amount of knowledge can be gained from networks that incorporate multiple types of -omic data. However, biological and technical sources of variation diminish the ability to detect cross-type associations, yielding networks dominated by communities comprised of nodes of the same type. We describe here network building methods that can maximize edges between nodes of different data types leading to integrated networks. We systematically rank several network inference methods and demonstrate that, in many cases, using a random forest method, GENIE3, produces the most integrated networks. This increase in integration does not come at the cost of accuracy as GENIE3 produces networks of approximately the same quality as the other network inference methods tested here. Using GENIE3, we also infer networks representing antibody-mediated Dengue virus cell invasion and receptor-mediated Dengue virus invasion. A number of functional pathways showed centrality differences between the two networks including genes responding to both GM-CSF and IL-4, which had a higher centrality value in an antibody-mediated vs. receptor-mediated Dengue network. Because a biological system involves the interplay of many different types of molecules, incorporating multiple data types into networks will improve their use as models of biological systems. The methods explored here are some of the first to specifically highlight and address the challenges associated with how such multi-omic networks can be assembled and how the greatest number of interactions can be inferred from different data types. The resulting networks can lead to the discovery of new host response patterns and interactions during viral infection, generate new hypotheses of pathogenic mechanisms and confirm disease associated mechanisms of disease.
The co-expression extrapolation (COXEN) method has been successfully used in multiple studies to select genes for predicting the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. Here, we enhance the COXEN method to select genes that are predictive of the efficacies of multiple drugs for building general drug response prediction models that are not specific to a particular drug. The enhanced COXEN method first ranks the genes according to their prediction power for each individual drug and then takes a union of top predictive genes of all the drugs, among which the algorithm further selects genes whose co-expression patterns are well preserved between cancer cases for building prediction models. We apply the proposed method on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets and compare the performance of prediction models built based on the genes selected by the enhanced COXEN method to that of models built on genes selected by the original COXEN method and randomly picked genes. Models built with the enhanced COXEN method always present a statistically significantly improved prediction performance (adjusted p-value ≤ 0.05). Our results demonstrate the enhanced COXEN method can dramatically increase the power of gene expression data for predicting drug response.
The effect of random and systematic errors associated with the measurement of normal incidence acoustic impedance in a zero-mean-flow environment was investigated by the transmission line method. The influence of random measurement errors in the reflection coefficients and pressure minima positions was investigated by computing fractional standard deviations of the normalized impedance. Both the standard techniques of random process theory and a simplified technique were used. Over a wavelength range of 68 to 10 cm random measurement errors in the reflection coefficients and pressure minima positions could be described adequately by normal probability distributions with standard deviations of 0.001 and 0.0098 cm, respectively. An error propagation technique based on the observed concentration of the probability density functions was found to give essentially the same results but with a computation time of about 1 percent of that required for the standard technique. The results suggest that careful experimental design reduces the effect of random measurement errors to insignificant levels for moderate ranges of test specimen impedance component magnitudes. Most of the observed random scatter can be attributed to lack of control by the mounting arrangement over mechanical boundary conditions of the test sample.
In this method, the gust velocities are represented as rolling gusts, yawing gusts, and side gusts. Random distributions of gust velocities across the span are taken into account in defining the rolling and yawing gusts. Complex stability derivatives are used to account for the random distribution of side gusts along the fuselage and vertical tail and the lag effects in gust penetration. A sample calculation procedure is presented for obtaining the response of the airplane in each degree of freedom.
Tunnel wall interference in two-dimensional subsonic flow can be analytically calculated on the basis of the one- or two-interface method. The application of numerical integration by means of matrix multiplication to both methods has been found to significantly reduce CPU time in on-line operation. An investigation of the sensitivity of these methods to random velocity-measurement disturbances shows the one-interface method to be less sensitive to measurement errors, and therefore to be preferable for practical applications.
The effects of various gust alleviation methods on the random blade response in flapping were studied analytically, assuming a rigid rotor support. The analytical model assumes rigid flapping blades with elastic root restraints. Linearized equations which are approximately valid at low lift conditions were used. Because of the interblade coupling from the feedback devices, the method of multiblade generalized coordinates was most convenient and was extended to include coning, differential coning, and warping of the rotor. The numerical examples cover the dynamic stability characteristics as affected by feedback gains of three- to six-bladed rotors. The number of blades had large effects on stability limits and modal time functions at these limits. The random flapping response of the blades to atmospheric turbulence was determined at 1.6 rotor advance ratio using feedback gains below the stability limit. The most effective reduction of the flapping response per unit gain was achieved with a rotor coning angle feedback.
The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), a multiplexed fiber-fed spectrograph, is a Stage-IV ground-based dark energy experiment aiming to measure redshifts for 29 million Emission-Line Galaxies (ELG), 4 million Luminous Red Galaxies (LRG), and 2 million Quasi-Stellar Objects (QSO). The survey design includes a pattern of tiling on the sky, the locations of the fiber positioners in the focal plane of the telescope, and an observation strategy determined by a fiber assignment algorithm that optimizes the allocation of fibers to targets. This strategy allows a given region to be covered on average five times for a five-year survey, with a typical variation of about 1.5 about the mean, which imprints a spatially-dependent pattern on the galaxy clustering. In this study, we investigate the systematic effects of the fiber assignment coverage on the anisotropic galaxy clustering of ELGs and show that, in the absence of any corrections, it leads to discrepancies of order ten percent on large scales for the power spectrum multipoles. We introduce a method where objects in a random catalog are assigned a coverage, and the mean density is separately computed for each coverage factor. We show that this method reduces, but does not eliminate the effect. We next investigate the angular dependence of the contaminated signal, arguing that it is mostly localized to purely transverse modes. We demonstrate that the cleanest way to remove the contaminating signal is to perform an analysis of the anisotropic power spectrum P( k ,μ) and remove the lowest μ bin, leaving μ > 0 modes accurate at the few-percent level. Here, μ is the cosine of the angle between the line-of-sight and the direction of $\vec k$. Lastly, we also investigate two alternative definitions of the random catalog and show that they are comparable but less effective than the coverage randoms method.
Randomization of electron energies in one- dimensional thermionic converter by computer methods
Purpose. To carry out a systematic review of randomized trials comparing surgery vs. endovascular therapy for occluded fistulas and grafts. Methods. All randomized trials which compared surgery and endovascular therapy for occluded fistulas and grafts were retrieved from 1990 onwards. The following search terms were used: 'haemodialysis,' 'thrombosis,' 'arteriovenous fistula,' 'arteriovenous shunt,' 'end stage renal failure' on Medline and PubMed. The results of the pooled data were analysed by a fixed-effect model. Results. There were no randomized trials comparing surgery vs. endovascular therapy for native fistulas and vein grafts. Six randomized studies reporting on 573 occluded grafts were identified. Technical success, need for access line and primary patency at 30 days were similar between the two groups (odds ratio [OR] 1.40, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.91-2.14; OR 0.77, 95 % CI 0.44-1.34; and OR 1.15, 95 % CI 0.79-1.68, respectively). There was no significant difference in morbidity at 30 days between groups (OR 1.12, 95 % CI 0.67-1.86). There were no statistical difference between the two groups for 1 year primary patency (OR 2.08, 95 % CI 0.97-4.45). Primary assisted patency at 1 year was better with surgery (OR 3.03, 95 % CI 1.12-8.18) in a single study. Conclusion. Comparable results to surgery have been achieved with endovascular techniques for occluded prosthetic grafts for dialysis access. Long-term data comparing the two groups were lacking. Further trials designed to encompass variation in methods are warranted in order to obtain the best available evidence particularly for native fistulas.
When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a class of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.
A class of methods for measuring time delays between astronomical time series is introduced in the context of quasar reverberation mapping, which is based on measures of randomness or complexity of the data. Several distinct statistical estimators are considered that do not rely on polynomial interpolations of the light curves nor on their stochastic modeling, and do not require binning in correlation space. Methods based on von Neumann’s mean-square successive-difference estimator are found to be superior to those using other estimators. An optimized von Neumann scheme is formulated, which better handles sparsely sampled data and outperforms current implementations of discrete correlation function methods. This scheme is applied to existing reverberation data of varying quality, and consistency with previously reported time delays is found. In particular, the size–luminosity relation of the broad-line region in quasars is recovered with a scatter comparable to that obtained by other works, yet with fewer assumptions made concerning the process underlying the variability. The proposed method for time-lag determination is particularly relevant for irregularly sampled time series, and in cases where the process underlying the variability cannot be adequately modeled.
The numerical solution of dynamic optimization problems is often limited by the memory required to store the state trajectory, which is used to evaluate the objective function and its derivatives. Recently, [R. Muthukumar et al., SIAM Journal on Optimization 31(2), pp. 1242–1275 (2021)] introduced a trust-region method for dynamic optimization that employs randomized sketching to compress the state trajectory, resulting in inexact derivative computations. By adaptively learning the sketch rank, the trust-region algorithm achieves rigorous convergence guarantees. Here, we extend this approach to use secant Hessian approximations. Due to the randomness introduced by the sketch, the traditional secant update formulae can produce poor Hessian approximations. In particular, the difference of two gradients, computed from two different sketches, may be inconsistent. To overcome this, we employ a sketched approximation of the Hessian application, in lieu of computing the gradient difference. We numerically demonstrate the improved stability of this approach on an example from PDE-constrained optimization.