Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Rare events”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Could Road Constructions Be More Hazardous Than an Earthquake in Terms of Mass Movement?

Roads can have a significant impact on the frequency of mass wasting events in mountainous areas. However, characterizing the extent and pervasiveness of mass movements over time has rarely been documented due to limitations in available data sources to consistently map such events. We monitored the evolution of a road network and assessed its effect on mass movements for a 11-year window in Arhavi, Turkey. The main road construction projects run in the area are associated with a hydroelectric power plant as well as other road extension works and are clearly associated with the vast majority (90.1%) of mass movements in the area. We also notice that the overall number and size of the mass movements are much larger than in the naturally-occurring comparison area. This means that the sediment load originating from the anthropogenically induced mass movements is larger than its counterpart associated with naturally occurred landslides. Notably, this extra sediment load could cause river channel aggregation, reduce accommodation space and as a consequence, it could lead to an increase in the probability and severity of flooding along the river channel. This marks a strong and negative effect of human activities on the natural course of earth surface processes. We also compare frequency-area distributions of human-induced mass movements mapped in this study and co-seismic landslide inventories from the literature. By doing so, we aim to better understand the consequences of human effects on mass movements in a comparative manner. Our findings show that the damage generated by the road construction in terms of sediment loads to river channels is compatible with the possible effect of a theoretical earthquake with a magnitude greater than Mw=6.0.

Hakan Tanyas↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coincidence in Time of the Imbrium Basin Impact and Apollo 15 KREEP Volcanic Flows: The Case for Impact-Induced Melting

On the Earth there is no firm evidence that impacts can induce volcanic activity. However, the Moon does provide a very likely example of volcanism induced by an immense impact: the Imbrium basin-forming event was immediately succeeded by a crustal partial melting event that released basalt flows characterized by K, rare-earth elements (REE), P, and other trace elements (KREEP) over a wide area creating the Apennine Bench Formation. Impact total melting is inconsistent with the chemistry and petrography of these Apollo 15 KREEP basalts, which are quite unlike the impact melts recognized at Taurus-Littrow as the products of the Serenitatis impact. The Imbrium impact and the KREEP volcanic events are indistinguishable in radiometric age, and thus the volcanism occurred less than about 20 Ma later than the impact (less than about 0.5% of lunar history). The sample record indicates that such KREEP volcanism had not occurred in the region prior to that time, and demonstrates that it never occurred again. Such coincidence in time implies a genetic relationship between the two events, and impact-induced partial melting or release appears to be the only feasible process. Nonetheless, the characteristics of the Apollo 15 KREEP basalts suggest large-degree crustal melting that is not easy to reconcile with the inability of lunar pressure release alone to induce partial melting unless the source was already almost at its melting point. The earliest history of the surface of the Earth, at a time of greater internal heat production and basin-forming impacts, could have been greatly influenced by impact-induced melting.

Ryder, Graham↗
NASA NTRS1985

A search for mini-clusters in Japan-USSR Joint Experiment at Pamir

A search for mini-clusters, very collimated shower clusters of hadrons and electromagnetic particles, is made for the hadron and gamma families observed by Japan-USSR joint carbon chamber at Pamir. The existence of anomalous correlation between hadrons and electromagnetic particles is found. The decascading method is applied to the families and it is found that 11 clusters which include hadrons as members have smaller spread, Er 3.5 GeV.m and larger lateral spread, E'R' 100 GeV.m, from the family center. In the simulated events, such clusters were found to be very rare.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Forecasts↗
NASA NTRS1977

Micropulsations in the morning sector. III - Simultaneous ground-satellite observations of 10- to 45-s period waves near L = 6.6

A search for simultaneous 10- to 45-s waves at the synchronous orbit at the location of ATS 1 and at Tungsten, Northwest Territories, Canada (near the foot of the ATS 1 field line), during 1969 resulted in the identification of only one event. This event occurred near 0900-1000 LT and was identified as a Pc 3 event. By combining 1967 data from College, Alaska (near the same L shell as ATS 1), with ATS 1 data, 90 simultaneous events were identified. Analysis of 60 of these events led to the conclusion that Pi 1 are rarely, if ever, observed on the magnetic equator at synchronous orbit, even when Pi 1 activity is present on the ground near the conjugate point. Pc 3, on the other hand, are common at synchronous orbit. A statistical study of the Pc 3 occurring at ATS 1 during simultaneous College wave activity indicated characteristics similar to those observed at ATS 6.

Arthur, C. W.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The origin of SNC meteorites - An alternative to Mars

The possibility that certain very young meteorites originated as impact melts on a large asteroid or asteroids is investigated. Calculations of the thermal evolution of impact melt show that the solidification time should be long enough to produce igneous or quasi-cumulate textures within rocks if the crater is large enough and if the initial clast concentration is low, at least in some portion of the melt sheet. The number of collisions within the asteroid belt which would produce craters of the requisite size is calculated. Using an estimate of the current size distribution of asteroids, it is found that over 3000 such collisions should have occurred during the lifetime of the solar system. Excavation and ejection of the solidified melt by a subsequent impact would be dynamically easy because of the low escape velocities of even the largest asteroids but improbable because of the depth that must be sampled. A second, sufficiently large impact is rare, so only the products of one such double event have been obtained up to now.

Vickery, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Cloud-to-stratosphere lightning discharges - A radio emission model

Recent observations of rare cloud-to-stratospheric lightning discharges suggest the events are inherently 'slow-rising', with the emitted energy reaching peak values in about 10 milliseconds. Applying a dipole radiation model, it is demonstrated that the emitted radio wave energy from such slow-rising events is strongest below about 50 Hz, and possesses a significant rolloff at higher frequencies. In the analysis, various current distributions are considered in order to determine the effect on the radio spectrum. Near 10 kHz, the emission from cloud-to-stratospheric lightning is significantly reduced as compared to the typical cloud-to-ground return stroke, with amplitudes as much as 50 dB lower. This result may explain the lack of detection of VLF signals from recently observed long-lasting discharge events.

Farrell, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The collapse of white dwarfs to neutron stars

The observable consequences of an accreting white dwarf collapsing directly to a neutron star are considered. The outcome depends critically upon the nature of the wind that is driven by neutrino absorption in the surface layers as the dwarf collapses. Unlike previous calculations which either ignored mass loss or employed inadequate zoning to resolve it, a characteristic mass-loss rate of about 0.005 solar mass/s and an energy input of 5 x 10 exp 50 ergs/s is found. Such a large mass-loss rate almost completely obscures any prompt electromagnetic display and certainly rules out the production by this model of gamma-ray bursts situated at cosmological distances. The occurrence of such collapses with the Milky Way Galaxy might, however, be detected and limited by their nucleosynthesis and gamma-ray line emission. To avoid the overproduction of rare neutron-rich isotopes heavier than iron, such events must be very infrequent, probably happening no more than once every thousand years.

Woosley, S. E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Heliospheric energetic particle transport: Analysis of near-field-aligned particle propagation for SEP events observed by Wind and MAVEN

Magnetic field alignments of spacecraft over large distances in the heliosphere are rare and are usually very limited in duration. Cruise phases of planetary transfers, however, are an exception to this rule, given the Hohmann-Parker effect. The transfer of the MAVEN s/c in 2014 is one such example. Multiple (~10) solar particle events occurred and were detected at both MAVEN and the Wind s/c, originating from solar activity near the foot points of both s/c. We show initial analysis results of the data collected by the solar wind and energetic particle instruments on both s/c while they were more than 0.2 AU apart, but practically Parker field aligned. Using a 1D model, we present initial simulations in qualitative agreement with energetic electron measurements. Next step is to implement the 2D model with approximate particle release from the Sun, and transport durations between Sun, Earth, and MAVEN. We will discuss implications for this data-model comparison, including the possibility to constrain particle scattering inside 1 AU, as well as its radial dependence between Earth and MAVEN.

Solar Energetic Particles↗
NASA NTRS1977

On the age of KREEP

It is noted that the variable Rb-Sr model ages of lunar highland rocks containing a significant amount of KREEP basalt may be best explained by some fractionation of Rb from Sr during metamorphism 3.9 billion years ago, but the uniformity of the KREEP-type trace-element pattern in different highland samples indicates that elements such as the rare earth were hardly fractionated at all during the metamorphic event. Data are presented which show that the Rb/Sr fractionation 3.9 billion years ago was due to Rb mobilization alone in most cases and that this fractionation can be accounted for by coupling of Rb to other, less volatile incompatible elements. Variations of Rb in lunar highland rocks are analyzed, a correction method is applied for the Rb/Sr fractionation, and results are evaluated separately for Apollo 16 VHA and KREEP basalts, Apollo 17 noritic breccias, Apollo 14 KREEP breccias, Apollo 15 KREEP basalts, and Apollo 15-KREEP-enriched breccias. Evidence for volatilization of alkalis from glasses of impact origin is summarized, and an apparent correlation is discussed between meteoritic component (as given by the Ir/Au ratio) and rock type (as given by the U or Rb content) for many lunar highland samples.

Palme, H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Fun Times with Cosmic Rays

Who would have thought cosmic rays could be so hip? Although discovered 90 years ago on death-defying manned balloon flights hip even by twenty-first-century extremesport standards cosmic rays quickly lost popularity as way-cool telescopes were finding way-too-cool phenomena across the electromagnetic spectrum. Yet cosmic rays are back in vogue, boasting their own set of superlatives. Scientists are tracking them down with new resolve from the Arctic to Antarctica and even on the high western plains of Argentina. Theorists, too, now see cosmic rays as harbingers of funky physics. Cosmic rays are atomic and subatomic particles - the fastest moving bits of matter in the universe and the only sample of matter we have from outside the solar system (with the exception of interstellar dust grains). Lower-energy cosmic rays come from the Sun. Mid-energy particles come from stellar explosions - either spewed directly from the star like shrapnel, or perhaps accelerated to nearly the speed of light by shock waves. The highest-energy cosmic rays, whose unequivocal existence remains one of astronomy's greatest mysteries, clock in at a staggering 10(exp 19) to 10(exp 22) electron volts. This is the energy carried in a baseball pitch; seeing as how there are as many atomic particles in a baseball as there are baseballs in the Moon, that s one powerful toss. No simple stellar explosion could produce them. At a recent conference in Albuquerque, scientists presented the first observational evidence of a possible origin for the highest-energy variety. A team led by Elihu Boldt at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center found that five of these very rare cosmic rays (there are only a few dozen confirmed events) come from the direction of four 'retired' quasar host galaxies just above the arm of the Big Dipper, all visible with backyard telescopes: NGC 3610, NGC 3613, NGC 4589, and NGC 5322. These galaxies are billions of years past their glory days as the brightest beacons in the universe. Yet they still harbor central, supermassive black holes, which could generate energetic particles if they are spinning.

Wanjek, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2014

ISS Ammonia Pump Failure, Recovery, and Lesson Learned A Hydrodynamic Bearing Perspective

The design, development, and operation of long duration spaceflight hardware has become an evolutionary process in which meticulous attention to details and lessons learned from previous experiences play a critical role. Invaluable to this process is the ability to retrieve and examine spaceflight hardware that has experienced a premature failure. While these situations are rare and unfortunate, the failure investigation and recovery from the event serve a valuable purpose in advancing future space mechanism development. Such a scenario began on July 31, 2010 with the premature failure of an ammonia pump on the external active thermal control system of the International Space Station. The ground-based inspections of the returned pump and ensuing failure investigation revealed five potential bearing forces that were un-accounted for in the design phase and qualification testing of the pump. These forces could combine in a number of random orientations to overload the pump bearings leading to solid-surface contact, wear, and premature failure. The recovery plan identified one of these five forces as being related to the square of the operating speed of the pump and this fact was used to recover design life through a change in flight rules for the operation of the pump module. Through the course of the failure investigation, recovery, and follow-on assessment of pump wear life, design guidance has been developed to improve the life of future mechanically pumped thermal control systems for both human and robotic exploration missions.

Bruckner, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Mass extinction: a commentary

Four neocatastrophist claims about mass extinction are currently being debated; they are that: 1, the late Cretaceous mass extinction was caused by large body impact; 2, as many as five other major extinctions were caused by impact; 3, the timing of extinction events since the Permian is uniformly periodic; and 4, the ages of impact craters on Earth are also periodic and in phase with the extinctions. Although strongly interconnected the four claims are independent in the sense that none depends on the others. Evidence for a link between impact and extinction is strong but still needs more confirmation through bed-by-bed and laboratory studies. An important area for future research is the question of whether extinction is a continuous process, with the rate increasing at times of mass extinctions, or whether it is episodic at all scales. If the latter is shown to be generally true, then species are at risk of extinction only rarely during their existence and catastrophism, in the sense of isolated events of extreme stress, is indicated. This is line of reasoning can only be considered an hypothesis for testing. In a larger context, paleontologists may benefit from a research strategy that looks to known Solar System and Galactic phenomena for predictions about environmental effects on earth. The recent success in the recognition of Milankovitch Cycles in the late Pleistocene record is an example of the potential of this research area.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS1994

Climatology of large-scale isentropic mixing in the Arctic winter stratosphere from analyzed winds

Dynamic isolation of the winter Arctic circumpolar vortex is studied using analyzed winds derived from geopotential height fields. Isentropic trajectories are calculated for assemblages of particles initialized on uniform latitude-longitude grids. Transport across isolines of Ertel potential vorticity (PV) is used to characterize the mixing processes of ejection of vortex air and entrainment of midlatitude air into the vortex. During January and February a barrier to mixing, where exchange of air is inhibited, typically forms near the vortex boundary. At 450 K, transport across the barrier is predominantly in the form of thin filaments of particles ejected from the vortex. These filaments tend to wrap around the vortex, creating a layered structure of vortex and midlatitude air at the vortex edge. Near or total splits of the vortex into two or more distinct vortex fragments are quite common based on these trajectory calculations. Significant entrainment deep into the vortex is rare and results from only a limited number of the splitting events. During December and March the mixing barrier is less evident due to nonconservative factors during the spin-up and breakdown of the vortex, respectively. In December both ejection and entrainment are only weakly inhibited by the mixing barrier. Exchange in March is dominated by ejection of air from the vortex.

Dahlberg, Steven P.↗
NASA NTRS2007

New Observations of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field from the Voyager Spacecraft

We review recent observations of variations of the heliospheric magnetic field B(t) made by Voyager 1 and 2 (V1 and V2), and we discuss the boundary conditions needed for models to explain the observations. Usually, observations from a spacecraft close to the Sun, such as ACE, WIND or Ulysses are used as input to a time-dependent model. Generally, the predicted profile B(t) can be compared directly with the observed profile only when either V1 or V2 is approximately radially aligned with a near-Sun spacecraft; this happens rarely and only for a brief time interval. The Bastille Day events illustrate this situation. In the absence of radial alignment of the spacecraft it is possible to predict the development of a global structure (a GMIR) with data from ACE or WIND, if they obtain a representative sample the flows that merge to form a GMIR. When latitudinal gradients are small and when there is statistical homogeneity in the azimuthal direction, it is possible to predict the statistical properties of the large-scale fluctuations of B(t) observed by V1 or V2 during a year or so. We illustrate this situation with observations from the recent solar maximum and the declining phase of the solar cycle. Predictions of detailed observations made by V1 and V2 under general conditions (e.g., when there is a large latitudinal gradient) require boundary conditions as a function of time on a surface, such as a Sun-centered sphere with a radius of 1 AU. These conditions can only be provided by global solar observations. We suggest the feasibility of such an approach, using V2 observations for 2005 and 2006. The prediction of observations in the heliosheath requires the solution of the 3-D boundary problem for the supersonic solar wind and propagation of solar wind through the termination shock into the heliosphere. The properties of B(t) observed in the heliosheath have not yet been predicted.

Burlaga, Leonard F.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

Electrical interactions between the F2 region ionospheric plasma and the 160V photovoltaic (PV) electrical power system on the International Space Station (ISS) can produce floating potentials (FP) on the ISS conducting structure of greater magnitude than are usually observed on spacecraft in low-Earth orbit. Flight through the geomagnetic field also causes magnetic induction charging of ISS conducting structure. Charging processes resulting from interaction of ISS with auroral electrons may also contribute to charging albeit rarely. The magnitude and frequency of occurrence of possibly hazardous charging events depends on the ISS assembly stage (six more 160V PV arrays will be added to ISS), ISS flight configuration, ISS position (latitude and longitude), and the natural variability in the ionospheric flight environment. At present, ISS is equipped with two plasma contactors designed to control ISS FP to within 40 volts of the ambient F2 plasma. The negative-polarity grounding scheme utilized in the ISS 160V power system leads, naturally, to negative values of ISS FP. A negative ISS structural FP leads to application of electrostatic fields across the dielectrics that separate conducting structure from the ambient F2 plasma, thereby enabling dielectric breakdown and arcing. Degradation of some thermal control coatings and noise in electrical systems can result. Continued review and evaluation of the putative charging hazards, as required by the ISS Program Office, revealed that ISS charging could produce a risk of electric shock to the ISS crew during extra vehicular activity. ISS charging risks are being evaluated in ongoing ISS charging measurements and analysis campaigns. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed detailed model of the ISS charging process and an extensive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data, to assess ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA analysis (estimated frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards) are then used to select the hazard control strategy that provides the best overall safety and mission success environment for ISS and the ISS crew. This paper presents: 1) a summary of ISS spacecraft charging analysis, measurements, observations made to date, 2) plans for future ISS spacecraft charging measurement campaigns, and 3) a detailed discussion of the PRA strategy used to assess ISS spacecraft charging risks and select charging hazard control strategies

Koontz, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2021

Coral Oxygen Isotopic Records Capture the 2015/2016 El Niño Event in the Central Equatorial Pacific

Coral oxygen isotopes (δ^(18)O) from the central equatorial Pacific provide monthly resolved records of El Niño-Southern Oscillation activity over past centuries to millennia. However, calibration studies using in situ data to assess the relative contributions of warming and freshening to coral δ^(18)O records are exceedingly rare. Furthermore, the fidelity of coral δ^(18)O records under the most severe thermal stress events is difficult to assess. Here, we present six coral δ^(18)O records and in situ temperature, salinity, and seawater δ^(18)O data from Kiritimati Island (2°N, 157°W) spanning the very strong 2015/16 El Niño event. Local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of +2.4 ± 0.4°C and seawater δ^(18)O anomalies of −0.19 ± 0.02‰ contribute to the observed coral δ^(18)O anomalies of −0.58 ± 0.05‰, consistent with a ∼70% contribution from SST and ∼30% from seawater δ^(18)O. Our results demonstrate that Kiritimati coral δ^(18)O records can provide reliable reconstructions even during the largest class of El Niño events.

Oxygen isotope anomalies↗