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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

2025 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Fiberboard assemblies in the 9975 package were identified as susceptible to aging and degradation under long-term storage conditions. Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 20 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 containers in storage from 20 years to 40 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 40 years in storage using degradation models. The 40 year storage evaluations assumed the degradation rates from initial values for density, dimensional, and thermal properties were 0.5% per year (i.e., after 40 years, the density, dimensional, and thermal properties of fiberboard were 80% of its initial values). The updated degradation models developed in this report were compared to the assumptions in those calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, axial and radial thermal conductivities, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are purposely high to accelerate aging. These rates relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or are postulated to only occur as upset conditions that are unlikely to persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments (i.e., under 125 °F) used in this study. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 40 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 40 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Post-2026 Environmental Impact Statement Rate Analysis for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a principal power-generating asset within the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP), accounting for approximately 70–80% of CRSP power production over the past two decades. In June 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) issued a Notice of Intent to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) outlining operational guidelines and strategies for Colorado River Basin reservoirs after 2026 (Reclamation, 2023). Power generation is among CRSP’s statutory purposes under the Colorado River Storage Project Act of 1956 (U.S. Congress, 1956). Assessing how alternative policy frameworks affect CRSP power production and the resulting electricity rates for U.S. customers is therefore essential to inform decision-making. This report evaluates projected electricity rates and the market value of electricity from the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) CRSP GCD under multiple post-2026 policy scenarios to support Reclamation’s EIS development. Results from advanced econometric and machine learning models indicate that the Enhanced Coordination alternative (EnhanCoor), Maximum Operational Flexibility alternative (CCA), and Supply Driven - 55 alternative (SD55) alternatives yield more favorable hydropower generation and capacity outcomes, which are objectives outlined in Reclamation’s documentations (Reclamation, 2007; Reclamation, 2016). Specifically, these scenarios are associated with higher electricity production, lower projected rate trajectories, and greater economic value to the U.S. power system from CRSP generation. The remaining five scenarios generally produce lower generation, higher rate trajectories, and reduced long-term market values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Evolving Role of Demand Charges in Retail Electricity Rates

Retail electricity demand charges refer to a type of retail rate that is based on a metric of kilowatt (kW) demand rather than kilowatt-hour (kWh) energy usage. Demand charges are widely used in the commercial and industrial (C&I) electricity sectors to recover significant portions of utility revenue and are also used in residential rates in a modest but growing number of locations. This paper explores the historical context of and motivations for demand charges, describes their implementation and impacts in today's context, and uses a variety of opinions collected from relevant parties through semi-structured interviews to inform how demand charges align with four widely accepted rate design principles. This project is funded by the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity, which is interested in conducting research to understand the current state of affairs related to demand charges and how the future U.S. electricity grid will help to define retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gas-Gap Calorimeter Sizing and Rating Tools for Heat Pipe Experimentation

Effective gas-gap calorimeter sizing and rating tools are required to design calorimeters that enable well-defined operating conditions, high cooling powers, and accurate calorimetry. The present report describes two tools utilizing Microsoft Excel and MathWorks MATLAB that enable the sizing and rating of gas-gap calorimeters with a He-Ar binary gas mixture in the gap. The Excel tools are two easy-to-use spreadsheets for calculating heat pipe operating temperature or He-Ar mole fractions given the required inputs. The MATLAB tool includes similar models with more robust solution algorithms along with sub-options for full-vacuum, static gas-gap, and forced circulation in the gas-gap. The accuracy of the developed tools were demonstrated by comparing with existing work in literature. The MATLAB tool was used for a parametric study to determine the gas-gap thickness, coolant gap thickness, coolant flow rate, and coolant inlet temperatures for the testing of a 3/4 in outer diameter heat pipe up to powers of 10 kW and temperatures of 1,000°C. The effects of heat pipe and calorimeter inner shell surface emissivities were investigated, considering the inability to control or accurately measure surface emissivities in most applications. It was found that controlling the He-Ar mole fractions provides a wide operating range for gas-gap thicknesses around ~ 0.042--0.090 in (~ 1.07--2.29 mm) for a surface emissivity range of 0.4--0.8, since conduction heat transfer is a significant fraction of the heat transfer across the gas-gap. In addition, it was found that turbulent flow in the coolant gap is needed at high input powers to prevent shell temperatures from approaching the boiling temperature of the water coolant. The parametric study resulted in choosing stainless steel tubes with an outer diameter and thickness of 1 x 0.065 in as the inner shell, and a 1-1/2 x 0.156 in as the outer shell of the calorimeter. Overall, this report presents the necessary information for the sizing and rating of gas-gap calorimeters with He-Ar mixtures for the testing of high-temperature heat pipes (~ 500--1,000°C).

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Part Size, Displacement Rate, and Aging on Compressive Properties of Elastomeric Parts of Different Unit Cell Topologies Formed by Vat Photopolymerization Additive Manufacturing

Due to its ability to achieve geometric complexity at high resolution and low length scales, additive manufacturing (AM) has increasingly been used for fabricating cellular structures (e.g., foams and lattices) for a variety of applications. Specifically, elastomeric cellular structures offer tunability of compliance as well as energy absorption and dissipation characteristics. However, there are limited data available on compression properties for printed elastomeric cellular structures of different designs and testing parameters. In this work, the authors evaluate how unit cell topology, part size, the rate of compression, and aging affect the compressive response of polyurethane-based simple cubic, body-centered, and gyroid structures formed by vat photopolymerization AM. Finite element simulations incorporating hyperelastic and viscoelastic models were used to describe the data, and the simulated results compared well with the experimental data. Of the designs tested, only the parts with the body-centered unit cell exhibited differences in stress–strain responses at different part sizes. Of the compression rates tested, the highest displacement rate (1000 mm/min) often caused stiffer compressive behavior, indicating deviation from the quasi-static assumption and approaching the intermediate rate response. The cellular structures did not change in compression properties across five weeks of aging time, which is desirable for cushioning applications. This work advances knowledge on the structure–property relationships of printed elastomeric cellular materials, which will enable more predictable compressive properties that can be traced to specific unit cell designs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Line Rating Models and Their Potential for a Cost‐Effective Transition to Carbon‐Neutral Power Systems

Most transmission system operators (TSOs) currently use seasonally steady-state models considering limiting weather conditions that serve as reference to compute the transmission capacity of overhead power lines. The use of dynamic line rating (DLR) models can avoid the construction of new lines, market splitting, false congestions, and the degradation of lines in a cost-effective way. DLR can also be used in the long run in grid extension and new power capacity planning. In the short run, it should be used to help operate power systems with congested lines. The operation of the power systems is planned to have the market trading into account; thus, it computes transactions hours ahead of real-time operation, using power flow forecasts affected by large errors. In the near future, within a “smart grid” environment, in real-time operation conditions, TSOs should be able to rapidly compute the capacity rating of overhead lines using DLR models and the most reliable weather information, forecasts, and line measurements, avoiding the current steady-state approach that, in many circumstances, assumes ampacities above the thermal limits of the lines. Here, this work presents a review of the line rating methodologies in several European countries and the United States. Furthermore, it presents the results of pilot projects and studies considering the application of DLR in overhead power lines, obtaining significant reductions in the congestion of internal networks and cross-border transmission lines.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of EJ-270 and Ce-doped LiCAF scintillators for the development of high-rate neutron reflectometer detectors

The Second Target Station of the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is anticipated to provide a neutron source with ∼20 times increase in peak brightness than the First Target Station. The neutron reflectometers currently in operation at the First Target Station need to be upgraded due to the increased neutron flux. A prototype neutron detector module based upon a pixelated scintillator array readout by silicon photomultipliers is being developed to address the high-rate challenge faced with future neutron reflectometer instruments at the Second Target Station. Two types of scintillator materials were considered for this detector development, i.e., 6 Li-loaded EJ-270 plastic scintillator and Ce-doped LiCAF single crystal. This paper reports the scintillator characterization results, including light yield, pulse shape discrimination performance, capability to detect thermal neutrons in a high γ-ray field, and γ-ray sensitivity. The number of photons produced per neutron capture by EJ-270 and LiCAF:Ce was measured to be 2176 ± 91 and 2651 ± 108, respectively. EJ-270 demonstrated a good capability to discriminate between neutrons and γ-rays by employing the commonly used charge comparison method (figure-of-merit: 1.13 ± 0.01 for an energy cut of 292–426 keVee) and a reasonable performance when using the time-over-threshold techniques; however, no discrimination was observed from LiCAF:Ce regardless of the pulse shape discrimination approaches utilized, making pulse height discrimination necessary for LiCAF:Ce to differentiate between neutrons and γ-rays. Both EJ-270 and LiCAF:Ce exhibited an acceptable capacity to detect thermal neutrons at high exposure rates up to approximately 584 mR/h. Furthermore, the γ-ray sensitivities measured with a 60 Co source at an exposure rate of around 1145 mR/h were determined to be (6.11 ± 0.87) × 10 −6 and (7.64 ± 1.08) × 10 −7 for EJ-270 and LiCAF:Ce, respectively.

EJ-270↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mean-Field Ring Polymer Rates Using a Population Dividing Surface

Mean-field Ring Polymer Molecular Dynamics (MF-RPMD) offers a computationally efficient method for the simulation of reaction rates in multi-level systems. Previous work has established that, to model a nonadiabatic state-to-state reaction accurately, the dividing surface must be chosen to explicitly sample kinked ring polymer configurations where at least one bead is in a different electronic state than the others. Building on this, we introduce a population difference coordinate and a kink-constrained dividing surface, and we test the accuracy of the resulting mean-field rate theory on a series of bilinear coupling model systems. Here, we demonstrate that this new MF-RPMD rate approach is efficient to implement and quantitatively accurate for models over a wide range of driving forces, coupling strengths, and temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shallow Rate-Redox Potential Scaling in Aqueous Molecular Oxygen Reduction Electrocatalysis Across a Family of Iron Macrocycles

Rate-overpotential scaling relationships have been employed widely to understand trends in oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysis by dissolved metal macrocycles in organic electrolytes. Similar scaling relationships remain unknown for surface-adsorbed ORR electrocatalysts in the acidic aqueous environments germane to proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells. Herein, we examine ORR catalysis in aqueous perchloric acid media for a structurally diverse array of iron macrocycle complexes adsorbed on Vulcan carbon black. The macrocycles encompass Fe– N 4 , Fe–N 2 N' 2 and Fe–N x C 4-x motifs bearing pyrrolic, pyridinic, and N-heterocyclic carbene (NHC) moieties in the primary ligation sphere, giving rise to a 670 mV range in Fe(III/II) redox potentials, E Fe(III/II) . Experimental Tafel data in the micropolarization regime were extrapolated to the E Fe(III/II) to furnish estimated per-site-normalized current density (j per-site ) values that span ~4.6 orders of magnitude across the family of compounds. Despite the structural diversity of this family of compounds, extrapolated j per-site values correlate with the Fe(III/II) redox potentials in a roughly log-linear fashion with a shallow scaling factor of approximately 145 mV/decade. Further, these findings highlight that negative shifts in E Fe(III/II) lead to diminishing returns in catalytic rate promotion and suggest that changes to the primary ligating environment in a macrocycle are insufficient to break fundamental rate-potential scaling relationships in aqueous ORR catalysis. Together these studies motivate the further development of higher-potential iron complexes that employ motifs beyond the equatorial ligation plane to enhance ORR catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-equilibrium rate theory for polariton relaxation dynamics

We derive an analytic expression of the non-equilibrium Fermi’s golden rule (NE-FGR) expression for a Holstein–Tavis–Cumming Hamiltonian, a universal model for many molecules collectively coupled to the optical cavity. These NE-FGR expressions capture the full-time-dependent behavior of the rate constant for transitions from polariton states to dark states. The rate is shown to be reduced to the well-known frequency domain-based equilibrium Fermi’s golden rule (E-FGR) expression in the equilibrium and collective limit and is shown to retain the same scaling with the number of sites in non-equilibrium and non-collective cases. We use these NE-FGR to perform population dynamics with a time-non-local and time-local quantum master equation and obtain accurate population dynamics from the initially occupied upper or lower polariton states. Furthermore, NE-FGR significantly improves the accuracy of the population dynamics when starting from the lower polariton compared to the E-FGR theory, highlighting the importance of the non-Markovian behavior and the short-time transient behavior in the transition rate constant.

Chemical dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emergency Radiation Dose Rate Monitoring During Prolonged Armed Conflict

The 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine has introduced unprecedented challenges for the nuclear power generation and radiological safety communities, including occupation and disturbance of highly-contaminated areas, occupation of a nuclear power plant, and strikes near and within boundaries of nuclear sites. The war has necessitated the implementation of a supplementary dose rate sensor network to provide resilient measurement data for public protection and leadership awareness. This paper discusses the implementation of such a system, the factors determining what equipment is best suited for the purpose, and practical factors regarding deployment of the system and data management. The crucial factors for operating a supplementary dose rate sensing network are backup power and communications options for dose rate sensors to make the network resilient to the effects of military operations. The most important implementation factor is to plan for extended operations beyond those typically considered for emergency response given the unpredictable nature of warfare.

resilience↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of New Technology Considering the Trade-Offs Between Operational Benefits and Risks: A Case Study of Dynamic Line Rating

Electric grid operators are adept at handling complexity and uncertainty. However, with increasing introduction of renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and more frequent severe weather events, operators will experience new workload and challenging decision scenarios. Here, this paper quantifies risks and benefits from an operator's perspective of introducing weather based forecast Dynamic Line Ratings (DLR) using variable wind conditions in addition to ambient temperature to relieve transmission congestion and facilitating more offshore wind (OSW). A concept of operations (CONOPS) applied to a forecast DLR implementation and its integration with OSW is defined. A method for evaluating tradeoffs of derating to make the rating more conservative but decreasing the benefit was developed and applied to a case study for two existing overhead transmission lines on Long Island, New York. The CONOPS uses historical day-ahead and hour-ahead High Resolution Rapid Refresh weather forecasts and weather station data to support planning and real-time operations. The analysis determines the risk of downgrades in real-time operational rating compared to the forecast and quantifies the frequency and severity of last-minute downgrades. The risk is compared against the benefits in increased capacity to provide insights on the additional amount of uncertainty DLR and OSW will add to the operator's workload.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Role of Hydrodynamics in Enhancing Height-Above-the-Nearest-Drainage Derived Synthetic Rating Curves: A Comparative Study in the Wu River Basin, Taiwan

The conventional approach to generating synthetic rating curves (SRC) using the Height-Above-the-Nearest-Drainage (HAND) method typically relies on the assumption of uniform flow, such as Manning's equation, to establish stage-discharge ratings. The zero-physics application of the uniform flow equation is insufficient for capturing detailed hydraulic features (e.g., backwater effect) and neglects the hydraulic effects from adjacent channels. This lack of hydrodynamic computation can impact the accuracy and effectiveness of riverine flood risk estimation and management. To reduce this foreseeable error, we introduce the HAND-hd workflow, which integrates sophisticated hydrodynamic computations in the production of HAND-based SRC with hydrodynamic features (SRC hd ). The results indicate that SRC hd demonstrates consistent agreement with both gauge observations and benchmark solutions. Additionally, the comparative analysis suggests that SRC hd provides notable improvements in stage-discharge ratings over conventional HAND-based SRCs, particularly in channels with mild bed gradients, where it reduces water stage prediction errors and percent biases. In steeper channel segments, SRC hd maintains comparable accuracy to conventional methods. The comprehensive evaluation in this study emphasizes the potential discrepancies and inaccuracies associated with the adoption of the uniform flow assumption in the conventional HAND-SRCs and addresses the necessity of including hydrodynamic physics in the application of HAND-based SRC (e.g., inundation map) in channels with mild gradients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights into Slip-Rate Time Functions, Rupture Parameter Correlations, and Ground Motions from Validated Multicycle Earthquake Ruptures

Earthquake strong-motion predictions using kinematic source modeling require knowledge of the slip-rate functions (SRFs) along the rupture and their distinct characteristics in asperities, background (off-asperity) areas and near the surface. Here, in this study we analyzed SRFs from well-validated, self-consistent, and fully dynamic rupture models from earthquake cycles obeying a rate-and-state friction law, from our companion study (Galvez et al., 2021). The shapes of SRFs in asperities are well described by the regularized Yoffe function (RYF), which has only two parameters: rise time T r and smoothing time T s , which control the generation of long- and short-period ground motions, respectively. In background areas, we demonstrate that, in addition to the primary rupture, multiple secondary ruptures may also nucleate from rupture heterogeneities related to asperities, resulting in SRFs with multiple peaks. Because it is impossible to fit a multiple-peak SRF by the single-peak RYF, we describe SRFs in background areas in an effective way by fitting their amplitude spectra with the RYF spectra. Such spectrally effective RYFs capture salient aspects of seismic-wave generation and can be used in rupture generators for strong motion prediction. We found that small T s values correlate with small characteristic weakening distances, large peak slip rates (PSRs), and large rupture velocities. T r values are larger in background areas and smaller in asperities. Within the shallow aseismic zone, T s values approximately quadruple whereas T r values approximately double. Because of this dominant T s increase, PSR values decrease in the near-surface zone. These features indicate that the generation of strong motions by the near-surface portions of the rupture is negligible in the studied scenarios.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Customer Rate and Tariff Design

This webinar covers and introduction to customer rates and tariff design, drivers of utility costs, impacts of evolving grids on rate design, retail price signals, and methods for evaluating rates.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Process Parameter and Build Rate Variations on Defect Formation in Laser Powder Bed Fusion SS316L

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is an additive manufacturing process that has gained interest for its material fabrication due to multiple advantages, such as the ability to print parts with small feature sizes, good mechanical properties, reduced material waste, etc. However, variations in the key process parameters in LPBF may result in the instantiation of porosity defects and variation in build rate. Particularly, volumetric energy density (VED) is a variable that encapsulates a number of those parameters and represents the amount of energy input from the laser source to the feedstock. VED has been traditionally used to inform the quality of the printed part but different values of VED are presented as optimal values for certain material systems. An optimal VED value can be maintained by changing the key process parameters so that various combinations yield a constant value. In this study, an optimal constant VED value is maintained while printing SS316L with variable key processing parameters. Porosity analysis is performed using optical microscopy, as well as X-ray computed tomography, to reveal the volume density and distribution of those pores. Two primary defect categories are identified, namely lack of fusion and porosity induced by balling defects. The findings indicate that, even at optimal VED, variations in process parameters can significantly influence defect type, underscoring the sensitivity of defect formation to the variation of these parameters. Furthermore, a minor change in the build rate, driven by adjustments in process parameters, was found to influence defect categories. These findings emphasize that fine tuning the process parameters and build rate is essential to minimize defects. Finally, fiducial marks have been identified as a source of unintentional porosity defects. These results enable the refinement of process parameters, ultimately optimizing LPBF to achieve enhanced material density and expedite the printing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Space Heating Options on Electricity Rates and Affordability

Electricity prices have increased in many regions of the U.S., with a national average of 18 cents/kWh projected for 2026, up from 16 cents/kWh in 2020. While the increases can be attributed to a number of factors, increasing electricity use in an efficient and strategic manner - with energy efficient building envelope upgrades and high performance HVAC systems - has the potential to increase revenue for utilities without significantly increasing electricity demand, and therefore could help moderate rate increases. This effect has been studied for electric vehicle charging[1] and dual-fuel heat pumps in Minnesota[2]. Leveraging a recently developed system cost methodology and FERC data on utility revenue, spending, and profits, this poster will present the direction and relative magnitude of rate impacts for efficient space heating upgrades in utility balancing areas across the contiguous U.S., using current prices and showing how the rate impacts would evolve under future grid scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗